USDA January 12 Reports...

USDA:  Crop Production 2011 Summary

Corn for grain production is estimated at 12.4 billion bushels, up slightly from the November 1 forecast but 1 percent below 2010. The average yield in the United States for 2011 is estimated at 147.2 bushels per acre. This is up 0.5 bushel from the November forecast but 5.6 bushels below the 2010 average yield of 152.8 bushels. Area harvested for grain is estimated at 84.0 million acres, up slightly from the November forecast and up 3 percent from 2010.

Soybean production in 2011 totaled 3.06 billion bushels, up slightly from the November 1 forecast but down 8 percent from 2010. United States production is the sixth largest on record. The average yield per acre is estimated at 41.5 bushels, 0.2 bushel above the November 1 forecast but 2.0 bushels below last year's yield. Harvested area is down 4 percent from 2010 to 73.6 million acres.

Sorghum grain production in 2011 is estimated at 214 million bushels, down 13 percent from the November 1 forecast and 38 percent below 2010. Planted area is estimated at 5.48 million acres, up 1 percent from last year. Area harvested for grain, at 3.93 million acres, is down 18 percent from 2010. Average grain yield, at 54.6 bushels per acre, is down 0.9 bushel from the previous forecast and down 17.2 bushels from last year.

All cotton production is estimated at 15.7 million 480-pound bales, down 1 percent from last month and down 13 percent from 2010. The United States yield is estimated at 772 pounds per acre, up 1 pound from the December 1 forecast but down 40 pounds from last year. Harvested area, at 9.75 million acres, is down 1 percent from December and down 9 percent from last year.

Rice production in 2011 is estimated 185 million cwt, down 2 percent from the previous forecast and 24 percent below 2010. Planted area is estimated at 2.69 million acres, down 26 percent from 2010. Area harvested, at 2.62 million acres, is down slightly from the previous forecast and 28 percent below the previous crop year. The average yield for all United States rice is estimated at 7,067 pounds per acre, down 100 pounds from the previous forecast but 342 pounds above the 2010 yield.



USDA:  Grain Stocks
Corn Stocks Down 4 Percent from December 2010
Soybean Stocks Up 4 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Down 14 Percent

Corn stored in all positions on December 1, 2011 totaled 9.64 billion bushels, down 4 percent from December 1, 2010. Of the total stocks, 6.18 billion bushels are stored on farms, down 2 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.47 billion bushels, are down 8 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2011 indicated disappearance is 3.84 billion bushels, compared with 4.10 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on December 1, 2011 totaled 2.37 billion bushels, up 4 percent from December 1, 2010. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 1.14 billion bushels, up 4 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.23 billion bushels, are up 3 percent from last December. Indicated disappearance for September - November 2011 totaled 905 million bushels, down 25 percent from the same period a year earlier.

All wheat stored in all positions on December 1, 2011 totaled 1.66 billion bushels, down 14 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 405 million bushels, down 26 percent from last December. Off-farm stocks, at 1.25 billion bushels, are down 10 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2011 indicated disappearance is 490 million bushels, down 5 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Durum wheat stored in all positions on December 1, 2011 totaled 47.8 million bushels, down 30 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 24.5 million bushels, are down 47 percent from December 1, 2010. Off-farm stocks totaled 23.3 million bushels, up 7 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2011 indicated disappearance of 15.9 million bushels is down 50 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Barley stored in all positions on December 1, 2011 totaled 134 million bushels, down 26 percent from December 1, 2010. On-farm stocks are estimated at 55.3 million bushels, 40 percent below a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 78.3 million bushels, are 12 percent below December 2010. The September - November 2011 indicated disappearance is 41.5 million bushels, 5 percent below the same period a year earlier.

Oats stored in all positions on December 1, 2011 totaled 78.6 million bushels, 22 percent below the stocks on December 1, 2010. Of the total stocks on hand, 24.4 million bushels are stored on farms, down 28 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 54.2 million bushels, down 19 percent from the previous year.

Grain sorghum stored in all positions on December 1, 2011 totaled 150 million bushels, down 37 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 27.9 million bushels, are down 9 percent from December 1 last year. Off-farm stocks, at 122 million bushels, are down 41 percent from a year earlier. The September - November 2011 indicated disappearance from all positions is 92.1 million bushels, down 38 percent from the same period in 2010.



USDA:  Winter Wheat Seedings Planted Acres Up 3 Percent

Winter wheat:  Planted area for harvest in 2012 is estimated at 41.9 million acres, up 3 percent from 2011 and 12 percent above 2010. Seeding began last September and ended the month behind the 5-year average as late row crop harvest delayed planting in many northern States. However, by the end of October, seeding had progressed slightly ahead of the 5-year average. More acres were seeded this year due to higher prices and an acreage rebound in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas where dry conditions had limited 2011 planted acres. The winter wheat crop condition at the end of November was rated 52 percent good to excellent compared with 47 percent the previous year.

Iowa ..........:  28,000 acres, +27% from last year     
Kansas ......:  9,500,000 acres, +8% from last year     
Nebraska ...:  1,400,000 acres, -8% from last year      

Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat seeded area is about 30.1 million acres, up 6 percent from 2011. Acreage is above last year's level in all States in the HRW growing area except California, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota. The dry fall limited planting in South Dakota, while winter wheat seeded area in Nebraska is a record low.

Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat seeded area is about 8.37 million acres, down 2 percent from last year. While large acreage increases from last year are estimated in the Southeast, large acreage decreases occurred in most States in the Corn Belt and Northeast, primarily due to a late row crop harvest. In Ohio, a record low area was planted due to wet soil conditions during the fall of 2011.

White Winter wheat seeded area totals nearly 3.49 million acres, down 3 percent from 2011. Planted acreage in the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, and Washington) is down from last year. Seeding started off slow but by the end of October was at or ahead of the 5-year average in all three States. By November 6, seeding was virtually complete in the region with 83 percent of the acreage emerged in Washington, 90 percent emerged in Idaho, and 48 percent emerged in Oregon.

Durum wheat: Seedings in Arizona and California for 2012 harvest are estimated at 230,000 acres, up 15 percent from the 2011 and 24 percent above 2010. Planting is ongoing in California's San Joaquin and Imperial Valleys. Weather conditions have been good for planting.



World Ag Supply and Demand Report, January 2012


WHEAT: 

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected slightly lower this month as reductions in expected domestic use mostly offset higher projected exports.  Food use is projected 5 million bushels lower based on flour production data recently reported by the North American Millers’ Association for July-September 2011.  Feed and residual use is projected 15 million bushels lower as December 1 stocks, reported in the January Grain Stocks, indicate lower-than-expected disappearance during September-November.  Seed use is raised 4 million bushels based on the winter wheat planted area reported in Winter Wheat Seedings.  Projected exports are raised 25 million bushels based on the pace of sales and shipments to traditional markets.  Increases for Hard Red Winter, White, and Soft Red Winter wheat more than offset a reduction for Hard Red Spring wheat.  Ending stocks are projected 8 million bushels lower at 870 million.  The 2011/12 season-average farm price is lowered 10 cents per bushel on each end of the range to $6.95 to $7.45 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected 2.7 million tons higher with production raised for Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Russia.  Kazakhstan production is raised 1.5 million tons as nearly perfect growing season weather is reflected in a new record yield.  Production is raised 0.8 million tons for Brazil, in line with the latest government estimate.  Production for Russia is raised 0.2 million tons reflecting the latest official estimate.

Lower 2011/12 projected exports for Australia are more than offset by increases for the United States and Russia.  Global consumption is raised with a 1.0-million-ton increase in expected domestic disappearance in Kazakhstan where record supplies will be difficult to store and maintain.  Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 1.5 million tons higher at 210.0 million. 



COARSE GRAINS: 

U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected higher as an increase in estimated corn production more than offsets a reduction for sorghum.  Corn production is estimated 48 million bushels higher with a 0.5-bushel-per-acre increase in yield and a 45,000-acre increase in harvested area.  Sorghum production is lowered 32 million bushels with yields estimated 0.9 bushels per acre lower and harvested area reduced 503,000 acres.  

Corn use for 2011/12 is raised with higher exports.  Exports are projected 50 million bushels higher reflecting the strong pace of sales to date and reduced prospects for Argentina.  Ending stocks are projected 2 million bushels lower at 846 million bushels.  The 2011/12 season-average farm price for corn is lowered 20 cents per bushel on each end of the range to $5.70 to $6.70 per bushel.  Prices received by producers to date have remained well below prevailing cash bids limiting the upward potential for the season-average farm price.

Other 2011/12 feed grain changes this month include a reduction for sorghum feed and residual use and an increase for barley feed and residual use, as indicated by the December 1 stocks.  Sorghum exports are reduced with the smaller crop and sluggish export sales.  The sorghum farm price is projected 10 cents per bushel lower on both ends of the range to $5.60 to $6.60 per bushel based on reported prices to date.  The barley farm price is projected at $5.15 to $5.65 per bushel compared with $5.20 to $5.80 per bushel last month as reported farm prices for malting barley drag down the season average for all barley.  The oats farm price range is narrowed 5 cents per bushel on both ends of the range to $3.25 to $3.55 per bushel.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are nearly unchanged this month as higher corn production in the United States, Ukraine, EU-27, and Russia is mostly offset by lower expected corn production in Argentina and the lower sorghum production estimate for the United States.  Global barley and oats production are also raised, mostly reflecting higher crop estimates from Russia.  

Argentina 2011/12 corn production is lowered 3.0 million tons as extended dryness since late November and periods of extreme heat in late December and early January have sharply reduced yield prospects.  Recent rains have brought much needed relief from high temperatures and dryness and are expected to stabilize crop conditions, but substantial damage has been done, especially to corn that was exposed to heat during pollination and early grain fill.  Corn production is raised 1.5 million tons for Ukraine based on the latest official indications of record yields and output.  EU-27 and Russia corn production are each raised 0.4 million tons based on the latest official estimates.  Brazil corn production is unchanged as rising area prospects for second crop corn offset a reduction in first crop yields resulting from December and early January dryness in the southern growing areas. 

Global corn trade for 2011/12 is raised slightly with lower projected corn exports from Argentina more than offset by higher exports from the United States and Russia.  Imports are raised 1.0 million tons for China, more than offsetting reductions for Syria and Taiwan.  World corn ending stocks are raised 1.0 million tons as lower stocks in Argentina are more than offset by higher stocks in Ukraine and China.  At 128.1 million tons, global stocks are nearly unchanged from 2010/11.


 
OILSEEDS: 

U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is estimated at 91.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from last month.  Larger crops for soybeans and canola are partly offset by reductions for cottonseed, sunflowerseed, and peanuts.  Soybean production is estimated at 3.056 billion bushels, up 10 million based on increased yields.  The soybean yield is estimated at 41.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels from the previous estimate.  Soybean crush is lowered 10 million bushels to 1.615 billion reflecting industry-reported data through the first quarter of the marketing year.  Soybean exports are projected at 1.275 billion bushels, down 25 million from last month and down 226 million from 2010/11.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 275 million bushels, up 45 million.  Soybean product changes include a lower soybean oil extraction rate, lower projected soybean oil exports, and increased soybean oil ending stocks. 

The 2011/12 U.S. season-average soybean price range is narrowed 25 cents on both ends of the range to $10.95 to $12.45 per bushel.  The soybean oil price is forecast at 50.5 to 54.5 cents per pound, unchanged from last month.  The soybean meal price is projected at $290 to $320 per short ton, up 10 dollars on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 457.4 million tons, down 0.3 million with lower soybean production more than offsetting higher projections for sunflowerseed and rapeseed.  Global soybean production is projected at 257 million tons, down 2.2 million mostly due to lower production forecasts for South America.  The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 50.5 million tons, down 1.5 million due to lower projected area and yields.  Excessive heat and dry conditions since December throughout much of the principal growing area is expected to limit soybean plantings and reduce yields from earlier expectations.  The Brazil soybean crop is reduced 1 million tons to 74 million reflecting hot, dry conditions in recent weeks, especially in the second largest producing state of Parana where planting was more than half completed by late October.  Favorable growing conditions in the main center-west region are expected to partly offset crop losses in the south.  Global sunflowerseed production gains mostly reflect larger crops in Russia and Ukraine.  Preliminary official harvest data from the State statistical agency indicate a higher yield for Russia, resulting in a record 9.6-million-ton crop.  Ukraine sunflowerseed production is projected higher at a record 9.5 million tons based on increased harvested area.  Other changes include increased rapeseed production for Australia and lower cottonseed production for India.

Global oilseed trade for 2011/12 is projected at 113.1 million tons, down 0.9 million mainly reflecting reduced soybean trade.  Lower soybean exports for Argentina and the United States are only partly offset by an increase for Brazil.  Imports are reduced for EU-27, Russia, Taiwan, Japan, and Turkey.  Soybean imports for China are unchanged at 56.5 million tons.  Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 74.8 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month as reduced soybean stocks in Brazil and Argentina are only partly offset by higher U.S. soybean ending stocks.



LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: 

The 2012 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month, largely reflecting increased pork production.  USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated that the second-half 2011 pig crop was just over 2 percent higher than 2010 and indicated that producers plan a slight decline in sows farrowing in the first half of 2012.  However, with continued gains in pigs per litter, more hogs are expected to be available for slaughter and the 2012 pork production forecast is raised from last month.  Beef production is little changed from last month although adjustments are made to the quarters.  USDA will release its Cattle report on January 27, providing an indication of producer intentions for heifer retention in 2012 and feeder calf availability.  Poultry production forecasts are unchanged.  Egg production is lowered slightly for 2012.  For 2011, small changes are made, with beef and pork production estimates raised, but broiler and turkey estimates lowered.  The egg production estimate is unchanged.

Trade forecasts for beef, pork, broilers, and turkeys are unchanged for 2012.  Beef, pork, and turkey estimates for 2011 are unchanged but broiler exports are raised due to stronger-than-expected shipments in October.

Cattle prices for 2012 are unchanged from last month.  The annual average hog price is lowered reflecting a lower first-quarter price forecast.  The first-quarter broiler price is raised but the annual price range is unchanged.  Turkey and egg prices are raised from last month.  Prices for 2011 are adjusted to reflect December estimates.

The milk production forecast for 2011 is lowered slightly on lower expected cow numbers for the fourth quarter, but the forecast for 2012 is unchanged from last month.  Larger-than-expected cheese imports for 2011 and into 2012 boost fat-basis import forecasts, but the strength of cheese imports in 2012 is offset by lower expected imports of skim products resulting in a lower 2012 skim-solids import forecast.  The skim-solids exports estimate for 2011 is raised on higher-than-expected October exports.

The forecast 2012 cheese price is lowered, but forecasts for nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices are raised.  The higher whey price is expected to more than offset the lowered cheese price forecast, resulting in a higher forecast Class III price.  The higher forecast NDM price results in a higher Class IV price.  The all milk price for 2012 is raised to $18.30 to $19.10 per cwt.