USDA Crop Production and WASDE Reports - 8-10-12

NEBRASKA AUGUST 1 CROP PRODUCTION FORECAST
Expected Corn Yield 147bu/acre, Beans 43bu/acre

Based on August 1 conditions, Nebraska’s corn crop is forecast at 1.34 billion bushels, 13 percent below last year’s production and the smallest crop since 2006, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, Nebraska Field Office.  Area to be harvested for grain, at 9.1 million acres, is down 5 percent from a year ago.  Yield is forecast at 147 bushels per acre, down 13 bushels from last year and the lowest since 2003.  

Soybean production in Nebraska is forecast at 215 million bushels, 17 percent below last year and lowest since 2007.  Area for harvest, at 5.0 million acres, is up 4 percent from 2011.  Yield is forecast at 43 bushels per acre, down 10.5 bushels from last year and lowest since 2003.

Nebraska’s 2012 winter wheat crop is forecast at 55.4 million bushels, 15 percent below last year’s crop.  Area for grain, at 1.32 million acres, is 9 percent below last year.  Yield is forecast at 42 bushels per acre, 3 bushels below last year and lowest since 2006.

Sorghum yield is forecast at 60 bushels per acre, down 34 bushels from last year and lowest since 2002.  Production of 4.8 million bushels is down 27 percent from a year ago.  Oat yield is forecast at 56 bushels per acre, 9 bushels below last year.  Production of 1.4 million bushels is 8 percent above last year.  Dry edible bean production is up 13 percent from last year.  Sugar beet production is up 14 percent from 2011 due to a record high yield forecast of 30 tons per acre.  Alfalfa hay production is forecast to be 27 percent below last year and the smallest production since 1947.  All other hay production is down 29 percent.  



Iowa Corn to Ave 141bu/acre, Beans 43bu/acre

Iowa’s  corn planted  and harvested  for  grain  acreage is  estimated  at  14.0 million  and  13.6 million  acres, respectively,  according  to  the  USDA  National Agricultural  Statistics  Service  –  Crop  Production report.  As of August 1,  Iowa’s corn crop  is  forecast to  yield  141  bushels  per  acre.  If  realized,  this  yield will be the lowest since 1997.   Production is forecast at  1.918  billion  bushels,  19  percent  below  the  2011 production. 

Iowa  farmers planted 9.50 million acres of  soybeans and plan to harvest 9.44 million acres.  The August 1 yield  forecast  of  43.0  bushels  per  acre  is  down 7.5 bushels  from  2011.  If  realized  this  will  be  the lowest  since  2003.    Soybean  production  would  be 406 million bushels, down from last year’s production of 466 million bushels.  
 
Oat production is forecast at 3.84 million bushels, up from 3.25 million bushels last year. The forecast yield of 64.0 bushels per acre is 6 bushel per acre above the July 1 forecast, but 1 bushel per acre lower than 2011.

The  hay  yield  for  alfalfa  and  alfalfa  mixtures  is expected  to  be  3.10  tons  per  acre  with  a  total production of 2.48 million  tons. The other hay yield is  projected  at  1.5  tons  per  acre  with  a  total production  of  465,000  tons,  down  31  percent  from 2011.    The  August  1  apple  forecast  of 700,000 pounds is down 83 percent from the previous year. 

All  crop  forecasts  in  this  report  are  based  on conditions  on  August  1  and  do  not  reflect  weather effects  since  that  time.  The  next  corn  and  soybean production  forecasts,  based  on  conditions  as  of September 1, will be released on September 12.




USDA Crop Production 8-10-2012

Corn Production Down 13 Percent from 2011
Soybean Production Down 12 Percent from 2011
Cotton Production Up 13 Percent from 2011
Winter Wheat Production Up 1 Percent from July Forecast

Corn production is forecast at 10.8 billion bushels, down 13 percent from 2011 and the lowest production since 2006. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 123.4 bushels per acre, down 23.8 bushels from 2011. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 1995. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.4 million acres, down 2 percent from the June forecast but up 4 percent from 2011.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.69 billion bushels, down 12 percent from last year. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 36.1 bushels per acre, down 5.4 bushels from last year. If realized, the average yield will be the lowest since 2003. Area for harvest is forecast at 74.6 million acres, down 1 percent from June but up 1 percent from 2011.

All cotton production is forecast at 17.7 million 480-pound bales, up 13 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 784 pounds per harvested acre, down 6 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 17.0 million 480-pound bales, up 15 percent from 2011. Pima cotton production, forecast at 663,000 bales, is down 22 percent from last year. Producers expect to harvest 10.8 million acres of all cotton, up 14 percent from 2011. This harvested total includes 10.6 million acres of Upland cotton and 233,400 acres of Pima cotton.

All wheat production, at 2.27 billion bushels, is up 2 percent from the July forecast and up 13 percent from 2011. Based on August 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 46.5 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushel from last month and up 2.8 bushels from last year.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.68 billion bushels, up 1 percent from July and up 13 percent from 2011. Based on August 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at a record high 48.0 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushel from last month and 1.8 bushels higher than last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 35.0 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 8 percent from last year.

Hard Red Winter, at 1.01 billion bushels, is up slightly from a month ago. Soft Red Winter production is up 1 percent from the previous forecast and now totals 435 million bushels. White Winter production totals 236 million bushels, up 2 percent from last month. Of this total, 13.9 million bushels are Hard White and 222 million bushels are Soft White.

Durum wheat production is forecast at 86.0 million bushels, up 5 percent from July and up 70 percent from 2011. The United States yield is forecast at 40.5 bushels per acre, up 1.9 bushels from last month and up 2.0 bushels from last year. Expected area to be harvested for grain totals 2.12 million acres, unchanged from last month, but up 62 percent from last year.

Other spring wheat production is forecast at 500 million bushels, up 6 percent from the July forecast and up 10 percent from last year. Area harvested for grain is expected to total 11.7 million acres, unchanged from last month but down 3 percent from last year. The United States yield is forecast at 42.8 bushels per acre, up 2.4 bushels from last month and 5.1 bushels above 2011. Of the total production, 463 million bushels are Hard Red Spring Wheat, up 6 percent from last month and up 16 percent from last year.



USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
8-10-2012

WHEAT: 
U.S. wheat supplies for 2012/13 are raised 54 million bushels with higher forecast production and an increase in projected imports.  Production is forecast 44 million bushels higher with increased yields for winter wheat, durum, and other spring wheat.  Feed and residual use is projected 20 million bushels higher, reflecting the tighter supply situation for corn.  Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 34 million bushels higher.  The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm price is raised substantially to $7.60 to $9.00 per bushel, compared with $6.20 to $7.40 per bushel last month, as tighter foreign wheat supplies and sharply higher corn prices raise price prospects for the remainder of the marketing year.

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 2.1 million tons lower mostly reflecting a 3.7-million-ton reduction in foreign production.  A small increase in 2012/13 world beginning stocks is partly offsetting with 2011/12 updates to trade and use for a number of countries.  Lower expected production in the FSU-12 accounts for most of this month’s decline in world output.  Production is lowered 6.0 million tons for Russia on reduced area and yield prospects due to July heat and dryness across most of the spring wheat growing areas.  Spring wheat in adjoining areas of Kazakhstan was also affected by the same adverse weather reducing production prospects 2.0 million tons.  Other reductions this month include a 0.8-million-ton reduction for Turkey based on lower reported yields, a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Argentina reflecting lower expected area, a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Syria, and a 0.2-million-ton reduction for EU-27.  Production is raised 2.9 million tons for India, 2.0 million tons for Ukraine, and 0.4 million tons each for Canada and Uzbekistan. 

Global wheat consumption for 2012/13 is raised 3.2 million tons as a number of countries are expected to shift some of their livestock and poultry feeding from corn to wheat.  Wheat feeding is raised 1.0 million tons each for EU-27 and Ukraine, 0.5 million tons each for South Korea and Vietnam, 0.3 million tons for Israel, and 0.2 million tons each for India and Thailand.  Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Russia with lower expected production.  

Global wheat imports for 2012/13 are raised with increases for several countries, in part, to support higher wheat feeding.  Imports are raised 0.5 million tons each for EU-27, South Korea, and Vietnam, and raised 0.3 million tons for Israel.  Imports are also raised 0.3 million tons for Brazil.  Global 2012/13 exports are raised, but much of the shift among countries also reflects reduced export prospects for Russia, which is lowered 4.0 million tons.  Exports are raised 2.0 million tons for Ukraine, 1.0 million tons each for Canada and EU-27, 0.5 million tons each for Australia, Brazil, and Pakistan.  Exports are lowered 0.7 million tons for Argentina, 0.5 million tons for Turkey, and 0.2 million tons for Uruguay.  World ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 5.3 million tons lower at 177.2 million.
 
COARSE GRAINS: 
U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected sharply lower again this month with corn production forecast 2.2 billion bushels lower and sorghum production forecast 92 million bushels lower.  The forecast U.S. corn yield is reduced 22.6 bushels per acre to 123.4 bushels as extreme heat and dryness continued, and in many areas worsened, during July across the Plains and Corn Belt.  As forecast, the 2012/13 corn yield would be the lowest since 1995/96. 

Corn area harvested for grain is also lowered, down 1.5 million acres from the last month’s forecast that was based on the June Acreage report.  The U.S. sorghum yield is forecast 16.3 bushels per acre lower at 48.6 bushels as drought stressed sorghum from the Central Plains to the Corn Belt.  Sorghum harvested area is also lowered slightly.
 
U.S. corn production for 2012/13 is forecast at 10.8 billion bushels, the lowest since 2006/07.  Relatively small increases in carryin and imports only partly offset this month’s substantial reduction in crop size.  Ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 118 million bushels higher with lower expected exports, reduced corn use for ethanol, and a small increase in imports.  Imports for 2012/13 are also raised, up 45 million bushels to 75 million, reflecting strong domestic corn prices and competitively priced foreign supplies.  Total U.S. corn supplies for 2012/13 are projected down 2.0 billion bushels and at a 9-year low.

This month’s large reduction in U.S. corn supplies and the sharply higher price outlook are expected to further reduce 2012/13 corn usage.  Total use is projected 1.5 billion bushels lower and at 11.2 billion would be a 6-year low.  The biggest reduction again this month is for feed and residual disappearance, projected down 725 million bushels.  Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is also projected lower, down 470 million bushels, mostly reflecting a 400-million-bushel reduction in corn used to produce ethanol.  Reductions in other food and industrial uses account for the remainder of the FSI decline.  Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 650 million bushels, 533 million lower and the smallest carryout since 1995/96.  The 2012/13 season-average farm price for corn is projected at a record $7.50 to $8.90 per bushel, up sharply from the $5.40 to $6.40 per bushel projected in July.  Projected farm prices for the other feed grains are also raised.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are reduced 56.5 million tons mostly reflecting the forecast 55.7-million-ton reduction in the U.S. corn crop.  Larger 2012/13 corn beginning stocks in the United States and Brazil partly offset lower U.S. and foreign coarse grain production.  Brazil corn beginning stocks are raised 2.8 million tons based on higher reported production for 2011/12.  Foreign corn production for 2012/13 is mostly unchanged with increases for China, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa mostly offset by reductions for EU-27, Ukraine, India, Serbia, Russia, Croatia, Moldova, and Canada.  Foreign sorghum production is lowered 0.3 million tons with a reduction for India.  Reductions in barley production in FSU-12, EU-27, and Turkey lower global barley production 1.1 million tons.  A 2.5-million-ton reduction in India millet output also lowers world coarse grain supplies.  

Global 2012/13 corn trade is projected sharply lower this month in response to tighter U.S. supplies and higher prices.  Corn imports are lowered for China, EU-27, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Vietnam, Israel, Colombia, Peru, and Syria.  In addition to the United States, corn exports are reduced for Ukraine, EU-27, and Serbia.  Partly offsetting are export increases for Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, and Canada.  Global corn consumption is projected 38.9 million tons lower with the United States accounting for more than three-fourths of the reduction.  Foreign corn feeding drops 8.8 million tons with only part of the decline offset by higher wheat feeding.  Corn feeding is lowered for EU-27, India, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Ukraine, Vietnam, Israel, and Indonesia.  Global corn ending stocks are projected 10.8 million tons lower with increases for China, Brazil, and Argentina only partly making up for the large reduction in the United States and smaller reductions in a number of other countries.

OILSEEDS: 
U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 83.4 million tons, down 9.4 million from last month, as a lower soybean production estimate is only partly offset by higher crops of peanuts and cottonseed.  Soybean production for 2012/13 is projected at 2.7 billion bushels, down 358 million due to lower harvested area and yields.  Harvested area is projected at 74.6 million acres, down 0.7 million from the July projection.  The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 36.1 bushels per acre is 4.4 bushels below last month’s projection and 5.4 bushels below last year’s yield.  Soybean supplies for 2012/13 are projected 12 percent below last month to a 9-year low on lower production and reduced beginning stocks.  Soybean exports are reduced 260 million bushels to 1.11 billion bushels.  Soybean crush is also reduced as higher prices reduce domestic use and prospective exports for both soybean meal and oil.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 115 million bushels, down 15 million.

U.S. changes for 2011/12 include increased soybean crush and exports and reduced ending stocks.  Crush is increased 15 million bushels to 1.69 billion reflecting increased exports and domestic use of soybean meal.  Soybean exports are increased 10 million to 1.35 billion bushels reflecting strong shipments in recent weeks.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 145 million bushels, down 25 million.

Soybean and product prices for 2012/13 are all raised to record levels this month, reflecting the impact of sharply reduced soybean and corn production.  The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $15.00 to $17.00 per bushel, up $2.00 on both ends.  Soybean meal prices are projected at $460 to $490 per short ton compared with $365 to $395 last month.  Soybean oil prices are projected at 53 to 57 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 457.3 million tons, down 8.5 million tons from last month.  Reductions for soybeans, sunflowerseed, peanuts, and cottonseed are only partly offset by increased rapeseed production.  Lower soybean production is projected for the United States, Canada, and EU-27 due to lower yields resulting from hot, dry weather.  Soybean production is raised for Brazil and Paraguay as producers are expected to respond to sharply higher prices with increased plantings.  Brazil’s soybean production is projected up 3 million tons at a record 81 million.  Sunflowerseed production is reduced for EU-27, Ukraine, and Moldova due to the effects of hot, dry weather during the reproductive stage of the crops.  Other changes include higher rapeseed production for EU-27 and Ukraine, lower rapeseed production for China and Australia, lower peanut production for India and Indonesia, and lower cottonseed production for India.

Global oilseed and meal production, trade, and consumption for 2012/13 are all reduced this month reflecting the impact of reduced oilseed supplies and higher prices.  Projected soybean imports for China are reduced 1.5 million tons to 59.5 million as domestic soybean stocks contribute a larger component of soybean meal consumption.  Soybean exports for Brazil and Argentina are forecast higher but only partly offset a reduction for the United States.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: 
The forecast for 2012 total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month but the forecast for 2013 is reduced as higher feed prices are expected to pressure producer returns.  Beef production is raised from last month for both 2012 and 2013 due to higher expected placements in feedlots and increased dairy cow slaughter in late 2012 and during 2013.  Carcass weights are forecast higher based on recent weight trends, but higher feed prices are expected to temper the increase and carcass weights are expected to be lower in 2013 compared to 2012.  Pork production is reduced from last month for both 2012 and 2013.  The reduction for 2012 reflects lower slaughter in the third quarter and lighter expected carcass weights through the year.  As a result of high feed prices and recent hot weather, forecast pig crops are lowered in the second half of 2012 with declines continuing into 2013.  Pork production is forecast lower in 2013 due to a combination of smaller hog supplies and lower expected carcass weights.  Broiler production is raised in 2012 as production in the second quarter was higher than forecast last month and hatchery data points to higher than previously forecast levels of production in the third quarter.  However, high feed costs are expected to result in lower broiler production in 2013.  Turkey production is forecast lower in 2012 on lower second-quarter production.  The production forecast for 2013 is reduced as feed prices squeeze producer returns.  The egg production forecast is lowered for both 2012 and 2013.

Beef imports are reduced for 2012 based in part on weaker second-quarter data but are unchanged for 2013.  Beef exports are reduced for both 2012 and 2013 as exports have slowed and tight supplies of pork and poultry are expected to support domestic beef demand.  Pork and poultry exports are reduced for both 2012 and 2013.   

Cattle prices are reduced from last month with the expectation of larger fed cattle marketings in both 2012 and 2013.  However, prices are likely to remain strong in 2013 as total meat supplies are tight.  Hog prices are raised in both years due to smaller hog supplies.  Broiler prices are reduced in 2012 due to larger expected supplies and somewhat weaker demand, but for 2013, tighter supplies are expected to help support higher prices.  Turkey and egg price forecasts are raised on lower production.  

Milk production forecasts for 2012 and 2013 are reduced from last month as higher forecast feed prices are expected to pressure producer returns and encourage a more rapid decline in the cow herd.  Milk per cow is also reduced due to tighter feed supplies.  Imports for 2012 are raised on both a fat and skim-solids basis and are raised on a fat basis for 2013.  Exports are raised for 2012 but exports for 2013 are reduced from last month on tighter supplies.  Ending stocks are reduced.

Product prices are forecast higher for 2012 and 2013 as tighter supplies support prices.  With higher product prices, both Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised.  The all milk price is forecast at $17.55 to $17.75 per cwt for 2012 and $17.80 to $18.80 per cwt for 2013.