Tuesday December 11 Ag News

Nebraska Cattlemen Members Adopt Policy to Address Issues

From inheritance tax to immigration to beef check off, members of Nebraska Cattlemen adopted polices at their annual meeting on December 7th to define their stands on some issues that could come under legislative or rule making discussions. “The members of Nebraska Cattlemen came together this past week to position themselves on current topics affecting the beef industry,” said newly elected Nebraska Cattlemen President Dale Spencer of Brewster.

The following are brief overviews of new policies that were brought forth:

Antimicrobials – AN R 2012
Cattle and beef producers need access to antimicrobials in a timely manner to maintain healthy animals and prevent diseases. Nebraska Cattlemen supports judicious us of antimicrobials by cattle producers and supports risk assessments, government approval procedure, and guidance rules that are based upon peer reviewed sound science from the appropriate species.

Use of Out-Of-State Brand – BP R 2012
Producers from other states purchase cattle in Nebraska and occasionally need to have the cattle branded with an out-of-state brand prior to loading for movement, because this is currently illegal, Nebraska Cattlemen support legislation to allow a one-time permit be issued to apply an out-of-state brand.

Aerial Surveillance – BPR R 2012
Nebraska Cattlemen asks for the immediate cease of aerial surveillance being conducted by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) due to the blatant violation of private property rights of businesses, residents and adjoining businesses and residents.

Updated Brand Statutes – BPR R 2012
Due to needed updates in brand inspection laws, Nebraska Cattlemen will seek legislation that will update and better reflect the current industry as well as resetting fees to keep the inspection system viable.

Alternatives to Hot and Freeze Brands – BPR PS 2012
Nebraska Cattlemen supports the study of alternatives to hot iron and freeze branding methods that new technology may contribute.

FCM Insurance Program – MC R 2012
Due to the effects of the bankruptcy of CME clearing member MF Global, Nebraska Cattlemen urges the development of an insurance program for Futures Commission Merchants (FCM’s) that would protect the value of excess customer funds on deposit in futures margin accounts.

Nebraska State Beef Checkoff – MC R 2012
A working group has come together to discuss the idea of a producer driven, state-base beef checkoff program and released a white paper with preliminary recommendations and is now leaving it up to Nebraska beef producers to consider the issue.  Nebraska Cattlemen will work with other beef organizations to conduct a series of a minimum of 9 producer input meetings to further refine the recommendations. Upon approval of the majority of Nebraska beef producers, legislation will be sought to implement such a plan.

Immigration Reform – MC R 2012
Due to needed updates in current immigration laws and that the beef industry relies on immigrants as a substantial portion of its labor force, Nebraska Cattlemen supports federal and state immigration reform legislation that creates items such as, a non-seasonal guest worker program, eliminates barriers for authorized immigrants to purse permanent residence, creates a skilled agricultural worker preference category for visas, allows beef producers to employ H2A visa holders year round, etc. Nebraska Cattlemen also supports education and informational campaigns to increase awareness of immigration issues as they impact the beef industry.

Nebraska Inheritance Tax
Since inheritance tax is paid to county governments, elimination of the Nebraska inheritance tax would result in pressure to replace lost revenue by increasing property taxes. Nebraska Cattlemen supports continuation of the existing Nebraska inheritance tax.

If you would like to see the language of each policy in its entirety, please contact the Nebraska Cattlemen office at 402.475.2333.



Nebraska Cattlemen Members Elect New Leadership
With the 2012 Nebraska Cattlemen Convention, which was held December 5-7th in Kearney, under the boots of Nebraska Cattlemen members, NC is proud to announce the newly elected leadership for the 2013 year.

The following are the newly elected:

Officers
    President – Dale Spencer, Brewster
    President-Elect – Jeff Rudolph, Cozad
    Vice President – Dave McCracken, Friend
    Past President – Jim Ramm, Atkinson

Council Leadership
    Farmer Stockman Chairman – Chris Bolte, Burning
    Farmer Stockman Vice Chairman – Kevin Sladkey, Wahoo
    Feedlot Chairman – Mike Drinnin, Columbus
    Feedlot Vice Chairman – Bill Rhea, Arlington
    Seedstock Chairman – Loren Berger, Stapleton
    Seedstock Vice Chairman – Todd Eggerling, Martell

Committee Leadership
    Brand & Property Rights Chairman – Jay Martindale, Brewster
    Brand & Property Rights Vice Chairman – Paul Schipporeit, Sumner
    Natural Resources & Environment Chairman – Bill Bose, Orleans
    Natural Resources & Environment Vice Chairman –Chris Schluntz, Republican City
    Nebraska CattleWomen Consumer Education and Promotion Chairman – Kelli Loos, Litchfield
    Nebraska CattleWomen Consumer Education and Promotion Vice Chairman – Tammy Hansen, Brady

Members Services Vice Chairman
    Region 4 – Kurt Kruse, Albion
    Region 6 – Tony White, Paxton

“This year’s convention was a huge success. Not only was the time filled with great speakers and presentations, but constructive conversations were sparked by the membership”, said 2013 Nebraska Cattlemen President Dale Spencer. “As leadership, we look forward to serving Nebraska Cattlemen in 2013.”



Cattlemen Honor Leaders in the Beef Industry

The 2012 Nebraska Cattlemen Annual Convention Banquet began on the eve of December 6th. The Master of Ceremonies, Chris Calkins, University of Nebraska Professor of Animal Science, entertained the audience as he introduced industry leaders and speakers.

Governor Heineman addressed the attendees and Baxter Black, Cowboy Humorist, gave the crowd quite a show as he entertained the audience with his charismatic wit.

Nebraska Cattlemen had the honor of presenting two great awards to individuals who have shown exceptional dedication to the cattle industry while helping beef producers raise high quality beef. Dr. Weldon Sleight, Dean of Nebraska College of Technical Agriculture, was honored with the 2012 Nebraska Cattlemen Industry Service award. The Cattle Industry Service award recognizes those for their outstanding service to the Nebraska beef industry through their dedication and commitment to helping shape the beef industry.

The evening concluded with the Nebraska Cattlemen Hall of Fame honoree, Bill Rishel of North Platte. The Hall of Fame Award is Nebraska Cattlemen’s most prestigious award given to those individuals who have played a role in shaping, promoting and preserving the beef industry.



Nebraska Cattlemen Foundation announces two new youth scholarships

The Nebraska Cattlemen Foundation announced during the Nebraska Cattlemen Annual Convention and Trade show the establishment of two new youth scholarship funds – the Colonel Melvin Huss Memorial and the Clarence and Lois Jean Hartmann scholarship funds.

Colonel Melvin Huss was a well-known auctioneer, cattlemen and livestock market owner.  Melvin got his start in the livestock marketing business in the Omaha Stockyards, attended auctioneer school in Mason City, Iowa, and then moved to McCook where he auctioned at the livestock market.  Melvin managed the Oberlin, Kansas Livestock Market and the Lexington Livestock Market which he later purchased along with the Kearney Livestock Market.  Melvin attributed the success of the livestock markets to his loyal and dedicated wife, Delores, his partners, employees and his loyal customers and buyers.  A $25,000 endowed memorial scholarship account had been created by the family to honor Melvin.  This fund will provide an annual $1,000 scholarship to a student at the University of Nebraska Lincoln majoring in Animal Science with an emphasis in beef production.

The Clarence and Lois Jean Hartmann scholarship fund is being established with an initial donation of $10,000 from the Nebraska Cattlemen Beef Pit Committee.  Clarence passed away on November 8 at the age of 87.  Clarence and Lois Jean farmed and fed cattle for over 50 years in the Hooper area.  Clarence was very active in the Dodge County Cattlemen, Nebraska Cattlemen, and National Cattlemen's Beef Association, holding several offices and directorships. Clarence and Lois Jean also were on the original committee that established the Nebraska Cattlemen's Beef Pit at the Nebraska State Fair and worked the Beef Pit for many years.  This fund, once fully endowed at the $25,000 level, will provide an annual $1,000 scholarship a high school senior or college student enrolled or intending to enroll full time in any college or university that offers a bachelor degree, an approved vocation or trade school, or a state accredited junior college.



Nebraska Cattlemen Foundation Honors Industry and University Professionals

Nebraska Cattlemen Foundation (NCF) President, Loretta Hamilton presented the Friend of the Foundation Award and Nebraska Beef Industry Endowment grants at the NCF lunch program held December 6th during the Nebraska Cattlemen Annual Convention and Trade Show.

The Friend of the Foundation award is presented annually to a person and/or business that has shared endless amounts of time, talent and/or treasure with the Nebraska Cattlemen Foundation.  The 2012 recipient announced was Bill Pullen with Bill’s Volume Sales, Inc. who have been long time donors and supporters to NCF and its programs.  Bill's Volume Sales, Inc. is a service oriented company started in 1963 and offers complete sales and service for major brands of feed mixers.

The Nebraska Beef Industry Endowment was established in December 2009 and provides a $5,000 grant to beef industry-related research and/or teaching positions at Nebraska post-secondary educational institutions.  This award honors those professors or instructors that are providing cutting edge research and/or student instruction in a beef industry related area.  For 2012, the Foundation awarded two grants – one to Dr. Rick Funston and one to Dr. Jerry Volesky.  Dr. Rick Funston is an Associate Professor at the University of Nebraska as a Beef Reproductive Physiology Specialist.  Rick is known throughout the country for his cutting edge research with heifer development and fetal programming effects on subsequent reproductive performance in heifer calves.  Dr. Volesky is a Professor at the University of Nebraska as an Extension Range and Forage Specialist.  Dr. Volesky’s primary area of research is on grazing management and systems. The majority of this work is conducted on Sandhills rangeland at the Gudmundsen Sandhills Laboratory near Whitman or the Barta Brother Ranch located south of Long Pine.”



Cancrete Waterers supports Nebraska Cattlemen Foundation

Funding for Nebraska youth and beef research are high priorities for the Nebraska Cattlemen Foundation (NCF). Advanced Agri-Direct/Cancrete Cattle Waterers out of York, Nebraska have teamed up with the NCF to support their efforts.

During 2012, Cancrete Cattle Waterers donated $25 to NCF for every waterer that it sold. “We want our money to go to programs that make it attractive for young people to get a higher education and stay in the cattle business,” said Shaun Held, Advanced Agri-Direct (USA) Inc. General Manager.

The first donation check was presented at the Nebraska Cattlemen Midyear Meeting in Atkinson last June and the second donation was presented at the recent Nebraska Cattlemen Annual Convention and Trade Show.  “With the tremendous success this program had this year, Advanced Agri-Direct/Cancrete Cattle Waterers will be continuing the program for 2013,” says Heldt.

“NCF thanks Cancrete for their support. We at the Foundation are working to improve and advance the beef industry,” stated Loretta Hamilton, President of the Nebraska Cattlemen Foundation. “Cancrete’s backing is very much appreciated and we want to thank them for recognizing the need to support the beef industry.”

For more information on Cancrete Cattle Waterers and their support of the Nebraska Cattlemen Foundation, contact Shaun Heldt at 866.398.5546. For more information concerning NCF, contact Lee Weide, Nebraska Cattlemen Vice President of Operations at 402.475.2333 or Jana Jensen, NCF Fundraising Coordinator at 308.588.6299.



Smith Says Changes to School Lunch Regulations are a Step in the Right Direction, More Flexibility Needed

Congressman Adrian Smith (R-NE) released the following statement on changes to school lunch regulations allowing more meat and grains in meals:

“I appreciate the Department of Agriculture’s decision to allow for more grains and meat in school meals.  These changes are a step in the right direction and should be made permanent.  However, parents and local officials will need additional flexibility to implement the school lunch program to effectively meet their budgets and the nutritional requirements of their students.  These decisions are best made at the local level.”

The new school meal requirements stem from the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act of 2010.  This legislation gave USDA the authority to set nutritional standards for all food regularly sold in schools, including cafeterias, school stores and vending machines.  The legislation failed to adequately consider budget limitations faced by school lunch providers and provided no credit to schools already taking steps to offer students healthier choices.

In light of the feedback from officials, parents, and students across Nebraska surrounding the implementation of the new meal standards, Smith sent a letter to USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack in September.  In the letter, Smith asked the department to review the current guidelines; to consider abandoning the bureaucratic and burdensome approach to school meal planning; for local officials to be given more flexibility in implementing the guidelines; and for the USDA to conduct a thorough evaluation of cost and participation rates across the county.



Iowa Farmland Value Reaches Historic $8,296 Statewide Average

Average Iowa farmland value is estimated to be $8,296 per acre, an increase of 23.7 percent from 2011, according to results of the Iowa Land Value Survey conducted in November. This is the third year in a row where values have increased more than 15 percent. The 2012 values are historical peaks.

The increase is somewhat higher than results of other recent surveys of Iowa farmland value: the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank estimated an 18 percent increase in Iowa land values from October 2011 to October 2012 and the Iowa Chapter of the Realtors Land Institute estimated a 7.7 percent increase from March to September 2012.

“The difference in survey estimates could be due to values increasing more rapidly in the past few months than earlier in the year. Better than expected crop yields and the level of land sale activity due to the proposed changes in land related taxes contributed to the increasing values,” said Mike Duffy, Iowa State University economics professor and extension farm management economist who conducts the survey.  “The Iowa State survey samples different populations, and uses different wording than the other surveys. This could also lead to different results especially in times of uncertainty. Even within the Iowa State survey there was considerable variation in the estimates.”

O’Brien County had an estimated $12,862 average value, the highest average county value. O’Brien County also had the highest percentage increase and highest dollar increase in value, 35.2 percent and $3,348, respectively. Osceola, Dickinson and Lyon counties also saw 35.2 percent increases. The Northwest Crop Reporting District, which includes all four counties, reported the highest land values at $12,890, an increase of $3,241 (33.6 percent) from 2011.

“The 2012 land value survey covers one of the most remarkable years in Iowa land value history,” said Duffy. “This is the highest state value recorded by the survey, and the first time county averages have reached levels over $10,000. While this is an interesting time, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding future land values.”

Why Iowa farmland values are increasing
Duffy said understanding some of the causes for the current increase in farmland values is helpful in assessing the situation. Farmland values are highly correlated with farm income. As farm income increases, so will land values. In 2005, corn prices averaged $1.94 per bushel in Iowa. The preliminary estimated price for November 2012 is $6.80. Soybean prices changed from $5.54 to $13.70 over the same period. Coming into 2012 there was a general sentiment that prices would decline from their peaks.  But, the drought changed this and the prices remained at high levels. How long the high prices will last is unknown. 

There has been considerable variation in commodity prices over the past few years, but farm income has increased substantially. The Iowa State economist goes on to say, the increase in income has been the primary cause for the increase in farmland values, but not the only one.

“There are other causes for the increase,” Duffy said. “Interest rates are at the lowest level in recent memory. Farmland purchased by investors went from 18 percent in 1989 to 39 percent of purchases in 2005, but investor purchases are back to the 1989 level of 18 percent this year after decreasing for the third year in a row.” 

Another key component is the costs of production. In the past, costs have risen in response to higher commodity prices. This is especially true for rents. Iowa State University estimated costs of crop production have shown a 61 percent increase in the cost per bushel since 2005. Without land, the increase has been 87 percent. 

Duffy believes there is still discipline in the land market, while land values have increased 64 percent in the past three years, in 2009 values did decrease by 2.2 percent. Therefore, it is prudent to be mindful of the factors that influence land values. The economist said there are several key components to watch:
-    Weather related problems – both here and around the world
-    Government policies – especially policies related to estate and capital gains tax rates
-    The amount of debt incurred with land acquisition
-    What happens to input costs – land being the residual claimant to any excess profits in agriculture
-    Government monetary policies as they relate to inflation and interest rates
-    The performance of the U.S. economy and economies throughout the world – which impact commodity prices, which in turn impact land values

Overview of 2012 Iowa land values
While the highest county land values were reported in O’Brien County, Decatur County remained the lowest reported land value, $3,242 per acre, and the lowest dollar increase, $521. Keokuk and Washington Counties had the lowest percentage increase, 14.8 percent, with reported average values of $6,330 and $8,226, respectively.

Low grade land in the state averaged $5,119 per acre and showed a 20.2 percent increase or $862 per acre, while medium grade land averaged $7,773 per acre; high grade land averaged $10,181 per acre. The lowest land value was estimated in the South Central Crop Reporting District, $4,308, while the lowest percentage increase was in the Southeast Crop Reporting District with an 8.2 percent increase. The Northwest Crop Reporting District reported a 36.8 percent increase, the highest district average percentage reported. Maps showing 2012 values, percentage change and comparisons to 2011 data and additional information from Duffy are available at www.extension.iastate.edu/topic/landvalue.

The Iowa Land Value Survey was initiated in 1941 and is sponsored by the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Iowa State University. Only the state average and the district averages are based directly on the Iowa State survey data. The county estimates are derived using a procedure that combines survey results with data from the U.S. Census of Agriculture.

The survey is based on reports by licensed real estate brokers and selected individuals considered knowledgeable of land market conditions. The 2012 survey is based on 486 usable responses providing 663 county land value estimates. The survey is intended to provide information on general land value trends, geographical land price relationships and factors influencing the Iowa land market. It is not intended to provide an estimate for any particular piece of property.



Nominations for Renewable Fuels Marketing Awards

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey encouraged Iowa fuel retailers and gas stations to submit nominations for the Secretary's Renewable Fuels Marketing Awards, which recognize fuel retailers that have gone above and beyond in their efforts to sell renewable fuels. Awards are presented for both the marketing of ethanol and biodiesel.

"Fuel retailers continue to take steps to make ethanol and biodiesel more available to Iowa customers and this award is an opportunity to recognize those who have shown leadership in promoting these renewable fuels and making them more available to customers," Northey said.

Qualifying entities will be those that market the renewable fuels they have available through creative efforts including, but not limited to: hosting special events highlighting their renewable fuels, development of creative signage, initiation of new advertisements or marketing efforts, and efforts dramatically increase renewable fuel availability.

Nominations forms can be found on the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship's website at www.IowaAgriculture.gov. Completed nominations can be submitted via email at Dustin.VandeHoef@iowaagriculture.gov or mail at Henry A. Wallace Building, Attn: Dustin Vande Hoef, 502 East 9th Street, Des Moines IA 50319. Nominations must be submitted by Dec. 31, 2012.

This is the sixth year for the award. Last year Jim Mulgrew of Mulgrew Oil Company and Greg Emick of W&H Cooperative in Humboldt were recognized.

Iowa leads the nation in the production of ethanol and biodiesel. According to the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association, Iowa has 41 ethanol refineries with the capacity to produce nearly 3.7 billion gallons annually. Iowa also has 13 biodiesel refineries with a combined annual capacity of over 320 million gallons.

The Iowa Renewable Fuels Infrastructure Program offers cost-share grants for the installation of E85 dispensers, blender pumps, biodiesel dispensers, and biodiesel storage facilities. The grant program is managed by Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship and more information can be found on the Department's website at www.IowaAgriculture.gov.



McGrath Named 2012 Iowa 'Woman in Ag'

Two of Beth McGrath's passions are teaching and farming and she strives to do both every day. The former teacher and current farmer from Woodbury County is a life-long learner who strives to share information with a variety of audiences, ranging from farm wives to state legislators. Her commitment to agriculture has earned her the Iowa Farm Bureau's 2012 Woman in Agriculture honor, an annual tribute that recognizes one woman who demonstrates outstanding leadership abilities in the promotion of agriculture. The announcement was made at the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation's (IFBF) 94th annual meeting in Des Moines.

McGrath farms with her husband near Lawton, running a no-till soybean and corn operation and raising a small cow-calf herd. McGrath takes the lead on several duties, including the planting and combining, pasture care and loading semi-trucks. She also keeps the business' books and works with her husband when marketing grain.

In addition to her farm work, McGrath is active in a variety of education-based initiatives including IFBF's state Ag in the Classroom committee, Ag Leaders program and the Woodbury County Farm Bureau board of directors and women's committee. She is also involved with Women in Denim, Council on Sexual Assault and Domestic Violence and Ronald McDonald House.

"Farm women have always been responsible for the health, nutrition and well-being of their families, but never have we faced so many issues concerning them," said McGrath. "We are just as responsible for the security and environmental issues surrounding our families."

She credits Farm Bureau educational opportunities for helping her to become more involved with the family farm and encouraging her to be more active in sharing agriculture's concerns with local and state leaders.

"Farm Bureau has enriched my knowledge of farming, as a whole and I am much more in tune with the issues facing farmers, both locally and nationally," said McGrath. She said women play important roles on their farming operations and in their communities. She encourages women to be more aware of the many issues facing agriculture, including immigration, taxes, economics and regulations.

"Women own a huge percentage of farm ground (in Iowa) and we need to be able to address issues concerning that land," said McGrath.

McGrath's recognition includes a plaque, a $250 cash prize and up to $500 to cover expenses for an Iowa conference for women.



Former MF Global Employee Admits Fault

A former commodities trader for MF Global Holdings Ltd. on Tuesday admitted guilt in a rogue trading episode that rocked the brokerage firm nearly five years ago and set in motion the events that led to its collapse.

Evan Dooley, previously an "associated person" in the Memphis, Tenn., office of MF Global, pleaded guilty Tuesday to futures trading violations in 2008 that drove a $141 million loss for MF Global, according to authorities.

Mr. Dooley, whose trades jostled prices in wheat markets in February 2008, couldn't immediately be reached for comment. His lawyer didn't respond to a request for comment.

The episode triggered senior management changes at MF Global and raised red flags over its internal risk controls, ultimately leading to the arrival of private equity investor J. Christopher Flowers, who helped in 2010 to install former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine as MF Global's chief executive. Mr. Corzine's outsized bets on European sovereign debt a year and a half later contributed to the firm's October 2011 collapse.

Mr. Dooley, of Olive Branch, Miss., admitted to two counts of exceeding government limits on speculative commodity trading, according to a statement from the U.S. district attorney for the Northern District of Illinois. Mr. Dooley, 44 years old, is due to be sentenced in March and faces a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison and a $1 million fine. He has also agreed to pay restitution to MF Global, which filed for bankruptcy Oct. 31, 2011.

As an employee with access to MF Global's system used for entering futures orders, Mr. Dooley used this Feb. 26, 2008, to buy and sell nearly 32,000 wheat futures contracts, according to a plea agreement released Tuesday by the U.S. government.

By 6 a.m. Central time the following morning, Mr. Dooley had piled up an approximate 16,000-contract position, amounting to an $872 million wager that wheat prices would fall in trading on the Chicago Board of Trade.

The position was nearly three times the legal limit allowed under U.S. futures law, according to Tuesday's plea agreement. Prices of the contracts shot higher throughout the morning as Mr. Dooley tried to unwind his position, confusing traders at the futures exchange.



New Avian Flu Outbreak Hits China

An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza has been reported to the OIE. The outbreak of avian flu, subtype H5N2, was reported by Dr Kwo-Ching Huang, Chief Veterinary Officer and Deputy Director General, Bureau of Animal and Plant Health Inspection and Quarantine Council of agriculture, Chinese Taipei.

Clinical suspected cases were notified by the owner because of the abnormal mortality rate. The local government conducted movement restriction, epidemiological investigation and sampling on the index native chicken farm and destroyed all chickens as the measure for precaution on 22 November 2012 in accordance with its authority.

The results of pathogenicity tests confirmed this event as H5N2 HPAI. The clinical and epidemiological investigation of three surrounding poultry farms was conducted. No other NAI case was detected.

In total, there were 300 cases, with 200 deaths and 631 birds were destroyed.



OPEC Considers Oil Output

(AP) -- Tough decisions await OPEC oil ministers sitting down this week for a policy meeting. The 12-nation cartel has to deal not only with how much crude to produce for the next few months but must also fill a senior position coveted both by Saudi Arabia and archrival Iran.

With world supplies ample, there is some rationale for curbing output when the ministers meet Wednesday in Vienna.

Oil inventories in the major industrialized countries are high, with an energy boom in non-OPEC member resulting in stocks of oil at their most plentiful there since 2008. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is pushing out over 31 million barrels a day. That's substantially more than its official daily ceiling of 30 million barrels and the highest in four years, when calculated over a year.

But other factors suggest there may be no change.

The world economy remains weak, despite some signs of a halting recovery in the United States and a bottoming out in the downturn in China. Reducing output now would spike prices, endangering the fragile recovery and further cutting back on the world's oil consumption.

Then there is the "fiscal cliff." The U.S. risks slipping into recession if hundreds of billions of dollars in expiring tax cuts and automatic spending reductions take effect on Jan. 1. Mideast tensions focused on Syria, Israel and the Palestinians and Iran's nuclear program could also drive up prices, even without any OPEC cutbacks.

As always, the price of a barrel of crude is likely to be the main decider.