Friday March 8 Ag News

USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates - March 8, 2012

WHEAT:
U.S. wheat exports for 2012/13 are projected 25 million bushels lower this month boosting projected ending stocks by the same amount. Continued strong competition, particularly from EU-27 and FSU-12, further reduce prospects for U.S. wheat shipments.  Projected exports for Hard Red Winter wheat are lowered 25 million bushels. Exports are also lowered 10 million bushels and 5 million bushels, respectively, for White and Hard Red Spring wheat, but raised 15 million bushels for Soft Red Winter wheat. All-wheat imports are unchanged, but small adjustments are made among the classes. Trade changes largely reflect the pace of sales and shipments to date. The projected range for the season-average farm price for wheat is lowered 10 cents at the midpoint and narrowed to $7.65 to $7.95 per bushel. 

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are raised 1.8 million tons with higher production. India production is increased 1.0 million tons based on the latest revisions by the government of India for the crop harvested nearly a year ago.  EU-27 production is raised 0.5 million tons based on the latest production estimate released by the government of Lithuania.  Production is estimated 0.3 million tons higher for Nepal in line with historical revisions to the country's production series this month. 

Global wheat trade is projected higher for 2012/13.Imports are raised 1.0 million tons for Iran, 0.5 million tons for South Korea, 0.3 million tons for Algeria, and 0.2 million tons each for China and Japan. Partly offsetting are reductions of 1.0 million tons for Egypt and 0.2 million tons for Kenya. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons for EU-27, 0.5 million tons for Brazil, and 0.3 million tons for Ukraine, more than offsetting this month’s reduction for the United States. World wheat feed use is increased 1.3 million tons with 0.5-million-ton increases for Australia, Canada, and South Korea, and a 0.1-million-ton increase for Japan outweighing a 0.3-million-ton decrease for Egypt.  Lower expected food use in India, Egypt, and Kenya limit the increase in global wheat consumption. World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 1.5 million tons higher with the largest increases for India, Iran, and the United States. The biggest reductions in ending stocks are for Australia, Egypt, EU-27, Brazil, Canada, and Ukraine.

COARSE GRAINS:
Projected 2012/13 U.S. corn ending stocks are unchanged this monthas an increase in imports and lower exports support higher expected feed and residual disappearance. Corn imports are raised 25 million bushels reflecting the strong pace of shipments reported through January. Corn exports are lowered 75 million bushels based on the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and stronger expected competition from South American corn and from competitively priced feed quality wheat. Feed and residual disappearance for corn is raised an offsetting 100 million bushels with continued expansion in poultry production and a 10-million-bushel reduction in projected sorghum feed and residual use. Sorghum exports are projected 10 million bushels higher based on the strong pace of sales and shipments. Smaller trade changes are projected for barley and oats based on shipments to date.

The projected season-average farm prices for corn and sorghum are each lowered 20 cents on the high end of the range to $6.75 to $7.45 per bushel and $6.70 to $7.40 per bushel, respectively. The projected farm price ranges for barley and oats are narrowed 10 cents on each end to $6.25 to $6.55 per bushel and $3.70 to $3.90 per bushel, respectively.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 1.0 million tons lower with a 0.8-million-ton decrease in production. Corn production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Argentina reflecting extended dryness in February that reduced yield prospects, particularly for late-planted corn. South Africa corn production is reduced 0.5 million tons as dryness and heat reduce yield prospects in the western areas of the maize belt. Sorghum production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Australia as excessively high temperatures have reduced harvested area as indicated by the latest government estimates and yield prospects as confirmed by satellite imagery.  India corn production is raised 0.4 million tons as planting progress reports for the winter crop indicate a year-to-year increase in area. 

Global coarse grain exports for 2012/13 are lowered this month mostly reflecting the projected reduction in U.S. corn exports. World corn feed and residual use is raised with higher expected use in the United States. Corn feed use is also raised for India and Malaysia. Corn imports and feeding are lowered for South Korea with higher expected imports of feed quality wheat and increased wheat feeding. Sorghum imports and feeding are raised for Mexico with the increase in U.S. sorghum exports. Global coarse grain ending stocks decline 0.6 million tons with small reductions in corn stocks for Brazil, Malaysia, Argentina, and India.

OILSEEDS:
U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2012/13 are unchanged this month, leaving ending stocks at 125 million bushels. Although soybean export commitments through February exceeded last year’s pace, U.S. exports are expected to decline in the months ahead as increased com petition from a record South American soybean crop limits additional U.S. sales during the second half of the marketing year.  Soybean crush is also ahead of last year’s pace, but is projected to slow in the second half of the marketing year on declining soybean meal exports as competition from South America, especially Argentina, increases with the new-crop harvest. 

The projected season-average price range for soybeans is narrowed 25 cents on both ends of the range to $13.80 to $14.80 per bushel. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 48.5 to 51.5 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $425 to $445 per short ton, down 10 dollars at the midpoint. 

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 466.8 million tons, down slightly from last month as reduced soybean and sunflowerseed production is mostly offset by increased rapeseed and cottonseed production.  Foreign production, projected at 374.1 million tons, accounts for all of the change. Argentina soybean production is projected at 51.5 million tons, down 1.5 million. Despite widespread rains in recent weeks, the extended dry period during planting and early crop development limited plantings and reduced yield prospects. China rapeseed production is projected at 13.5 million tons, up 0.9 million based on increased area and yield indicated in recently released official government statistics. Other changes include higher rapeseed production for Australia and India, reduced sunflowerseed production for Argentina, and increased palm oil production for Malaysia. Cottonseed production is increased for China and reduced for Pakistan and Brazil.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
The 2013 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher beef, broiler, and turkey production is expected to more than offset lower forecast pork production. Beef production is raised from last month largely due to heavier expected carcass weights. Steer and heifer slaughter is reduced for the first quarter, but cow slaughter is raised. Pork production is reduced based on lower slaughter in the first quarter. The broiler production forecast is raised as producers are expected to respond to stronger forecast first-half broiler prices and lower projected second-half feed meal prices. Turkey production is forecast higher on heavier bird weights and slightly higher slaughter.  Egg production is raised based on hatchery data. Poultry and egg production for 2012 is adjusted to reflect revisions in production data. 

The beef export and import forecasts for 2013 are lowered based on slower-than-expected shipments in January. Pork exports are lowered from last month as export demand has softened. The broiler export forecast is unchanged from last month. Changes in estimates for 2012 trade reflect December data.

Cattle prices for 2013 are lowered from last month, reflecting slightly weaker demand for fed cattle into the second quarter of the year. Hog and broiler price forecasts are unchanged from last month. Forecast broiler prices are raised in the first half on strong demand, but are reduced in the second half on production increases. Turkey prices are lowered on greater production. Egg price forecasts are unchanged.

The milk production forecast for 2013 is raised from last month largely due to a slower pace of herd reduction and higher first-quarter milk per cow. The 2013 fat-basis export forecast is raised largely on stronger shipments of butter. Skim-solid exports are raised based on greater nonfat dry milk (NDM).  Imports are unchanged on both a fat and skim-solidsbasis. Changes in 2012 estimates of supply and use reflect revised annual data.

Prices for cheese and whey are lowered based on expectations of increased production and moderate demand. The forecast butter price is unchanged from last month and the range is tightened. The forecast price of NDM is raised as stronger export demand is expected to support prices. The Class III price forecast is reduced from last month, reflecting weaker cheese and whey prices while Class IV is increased due to higher NDM prices. The all milk price for 2013 is raised to $19.00-$19.60 per cwt.



UNL Hires New Director of School of Natural Resources

            A professor of wildlife ecology and management at the University of Georgia will be the new head of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln's School of Natural Resources.

            John P. Carroll will assume the new position this summer.

            Carroll currently is professor in the Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources at Georgia, where he's been since 1998. Previously, he worked at the Game Conservancy Trust in England, at the California University of Pennsylvania, the University of North Dakota and the University of Minnesota/Crookston.

            Carroll received his bachelor's degree in wildlife biology at the University of Massachusetts, his master's in biology from Eastern Kentucky University and his doctorate in biology from the University of North Dakota.  He is internationally known for his research on gamebird management and conservation, especially in agricultural systems.

            Ronnie Green, Harlan vice chancellor of UNL's Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, said Carroll is well suited to help the school "fully realize its potential."

            "The School of Natural Resources is the leader of critical programs in research, teaching and extension that are crucial to the long-term sustainability of Nebraska's natural resources and ecosystems," said Green, who also is vice president of agriculture and natural resources for the University of Nebraska. "We look forward to Dr. Carroll's leadership and vision in heading SNR at this pivotal point in its history."

            Carroll said, "I am looking forward to joining the outstanding team in SNR and working with them on enormous natural resources challenges that face Nebraska in the coming decades."

            Carroll replaces Don Wilhite.



NRDS Promote National Groundwater Awareness Week

Water is vital to life.  Farmers, ranchers, city residents, industry, recreationists, livestock, and wildlife all depend on Nebraska's most precious natural resource.  Generally Nebraska's water is abundant and clean, thanks largely to the High Plains Aquifer. Though it is plentiful and usable, Nebraska's water is neither infinite nor immune from pollution. Irrigators, cities and villages, industries and wildlife all compete for the resource. Contamination may come from sediment, farming chemicals, urban runoff and industrial sources.

The 15th annual Groundwater Awareness Week will take place March 10-16, 2013.  This is a time to remind the public about groundwater and its importance to public health, quality of living, the environment and economic sustainability. Over 85% of Nebraskan’s drinking water comes from groundwater. Nebraska’s Natural Resources Districts have active groundwater management plans to protect groundwater quantity and quality for generations to come.

High nitrate levels in groundwater are a problem for many Nebraska communities and rural residents. The NRDs, through state statutes, have been charged with managing groundwater in Nebraska.  NRDs encourage stewardship by providing financial assistance to landowners for irrigation water management and best-management practices to protect water.   Where voluntary measures are not effective to reduce contamination, the NRDs are tasked with invoking regulatory controls such as fertilizer limitations.  Fortunately, because NRDs and producers have worked together on groundwater protection, these regulations have been somewhat limited.

“After implementing an aggressive groundwater quality management plan in 1988, areas of our district have seen a 21 percent decrease in average nitrate concentrations in the groundwater,” said Ron Bishop, general manager of the Central Platte NRD. “Crop yields during the same time period, in most cases, have seen an increase,” said Bishop.  “Farmers realize the importance of clean water and have taken the appropriate measures to reduce the nitrate impacts.



NCBA Statement on USDA's Proposed Amendment to Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) Rule

National Cattlemen's Beef Association (NCBA) President Scott George, a cattleman from Cody Wyo., issued the following statement regarding the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) proposed amendment to the mandatory Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) rule:

“NCBA has maintained that there is no regulatory fix that can be put in place to bring the current COOL rule into compliance with our World Trade Organization (WTO) obligation or that will satisfy our top two trading partners; Mexico and Canada. With the amended rule, the USDA has proven that to be true. The proposed amendments will only further hinder our trading relationships with our partners, raise the cost of beef for consumers and result in retaliatory tariffs being placed on our export products. The requirement that all products sold at retail be labeled with information noting the birth, raising and slaughter will place additional recordkeeping burdens on processors and retailers, contrary to the administration’s assertion. Moreover, this combined with the elimination of the ability to comingle muscle cuts, will only further add to the costs of processing non-U.S. born, raised and slaughtered products. The end result will be hesitancy to process imported product and increased instances of less favorable treatment of foreign product, giving our trading partners a stronger case at the WTO.”



CBO Updates Savings Estimates for Farm Bills

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a new estimate of the savings that last year’s Senate and House farm bills would have produced, if they would have been signed into law.  Last year’s Senate-passed bill was approximated to save $23.1 billion over the next 10 years, but now the CBO has reduced their estimate of the savings to $13.1 billion. The House version was approximated to save $35.1 billion last year, but the CBO currently estimates that the same bill to only save $26.6 billion.

Click the link to read the full letter that CBO sent to Senate Agriculture Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), and House Agriculture Chairman Frank Lucas (R-Okla.): http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/s3240_hr6083_Stabenow_Ltr.pdf



Back Ribs Invade Japan, Increasing Demand for U.S. Soy

Zero to 4.5 million is a huge increase, especially when it comes to meat consumption.

But that growth is the end result of soy-checkoff-funded efforts by the United States Meat Export Federation (USMEF) over the last three years to introduce and increase consumption of a single new pork cut in Japan.

Growing U.S. pork exports represents better value for U.S. soybean farmers because it means feeding U.S. soy to animals here and exporting value-added products like meat. This supports U.S. soy’s No. 1 customer –the animal ag industry – while strengthening the demand for U.S. soy.

Through a multifaceted campaign, USMEF showed Japanese consumers that back ribs, an underutilized pork portion, were easy to cook and delicious.

By the end of the campaign, Japanese consumption of back ribs went from 0 to 4.5 million pounds annually, and continues to increase.

By partnering with USMEF, U.S. soybean farmers can support their biggest customers while strengthening the demand for U.S. soy.

In 2011, the United States exported 4.97 billion pounds of pork, which would have used an estimated 87 million bushels of soybeans. A record year, 2011 pork exports were up 18 percent from 2010 and 10 percent from the previous high in 2008.

U.S. pork export volume from January to November 2012 was up 3 percent from 2011, keeping the year on track to break more records. That’s the meal from 75.6 billion bushels of soybeans.



ASA Urges Relief from Fuel Capacity Regulation

In a letter this week to House Agriculture Committee Ranking Member Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) and member Randy Neugebauer (R-Texas), ASA joined other farm groups in thanking the congressmen for their leadership in introducing a bill that would reduce the regulatory burdens for farmers and custom harvesters by exempting certain class A Commercial Drivers License (CDL) holders from the requirement of obtaining a Hazardous Material (HM) endorsement while transporting more than 118 gallons of diesel fuel.

"Current federal law makes it very difficult for farmers and custom harvesters to transport the amount of fuel necessary for a single day of field operations with today’s agricultural equipment," wrote the groups in the letter. "Class A CDL holders cannot haul more than 118 gallons of diesel fuel without an HM endorsement, which can be costly and time-consuming to obtain."

"Some of today’s farm equipment, such as large combines and cotton pickers, have fuel tank capacities of 250 gallons or more. Restricting a farmer or harvester to hauling only 118 gallons at a time forces them to make multiple trips to refuel. This is a waste of valuable time and money during the busiest time of the year," continued the groups. "Your legislation … would help the agricultural industry operate more efficiently and recognize the needs of modern production agriculture."



ASA Signs Generic Event Marketability and Access Agreement

The American Soybean Association joined the Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO), the American Seed Trade Association (ASTA), the American Farm Bureau Federation and the National Corn Growers Association in signing the Generic Event Marketability and Access Agreement (GEMAA). The GEMAA is part of an accord that represents a solution to ensuring critical domestic and international regulatory authorizations are maintained for biotech events once patents expire. The Accord consists of two agreements: the GEMAA and the Data Use and Compensation Agreement (DUCA). The GEMAA is now effective and in the process of implementation. The legal text of the DUCA is near completion.

"Having the Farm Bureau, ASA and NCGA as signatories to the GEMAA is a major step forward for the Accord," said Cathleen Enright, Executive Vice President at BIO. "All three organizations have been key players in the development of the GEMAA and we welcome their commitment to the Accord process."

"We’ve aimed to create an agreement that would enable national farm organizations to participate, so growers can have a role in the process and get access to important information about patent expiration and these organizations have been key stakeholders from the beginning of this process," said Andrew LaVigne, President and CEO of ASTA.

"Since ASA was one of the producer organizations that urged the biotech and seed industries to develop a predictable roadmap for biotech events to go from patented to generic, we thought it only appropriate for ASA to sign onto the GEMAA," said ASA President Danny Murphy. "Additionally, the GEMAA provides signatories like ASA with important advance notifications by other signatories about when patented events will expire, and gives us a seat at the table regarding the ongoing implementation of the GEMAA and whether changes should be considered in the future. ASA appreciates the work that went into developing the GEMAA, and we are pleased to become a signatory to it."

More information about the Accord can be found at www.AgAccord.org.



2013 Young Leader Class Completes Part 2 of Leadership Development Training

The 2013 class of ASA/DuPont Young Leaders participated in Part 2 of their leadership development training Feb. 26-March 2 in Kissimmee, Fla., in conjunction with Commodity Classic. Young Leaders heard presentations on leadership motivation, the future of agriculture and how to improve soybean and corn yields, networked with their state leaders, and participated in Commodity Classic events. They rounded out their week of personal growth by receiving awards for their outstanding leadership during the ASA Awards Banquet on March 1.

Select Young Leaders from this year’s class will have the opportunity to participate in Part 3 of the program, where they will go to Washington, D.C. and lobby on Capitol Hill before heading to DuPont headquarters for lab tours and meetings with DuPont executives.

The 2013 class of Young Leaders include:
Shane and Nicole Greving (Neb.)
Todd Lewis (Iowa)
Craig and Jennifer Converse (S.D.)

Applications for next year’s Young Leader Program will be accepted beginning on June 1.



New USDA Survey of Pesticide Residues Finds No Problems in Milk

The most recent national government survey looking for pesticide residues in foods found virtually no positive levels in milk, and none that exceeded government tolerance levels.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) conducts an annual Pesticide Data Program annual survey to test various food commodities for pesticide residues. Each year, USDA and the Environmental Protection Agency jointly determine which commodities to test. In 2011, the USDA collected 743 whole milk samples in ten of the largest states, mostly at the retail level.

Overall, only five of the milk samples showed any presence of pesticide residue, and all were lower than Environmental Protection Agency-established tolerances for those compounds.



Annual Survey of Antibiotic Residues in Milk Finds Continuing Improvement
Dairy farmers continued in 2012 to improve their already stellar track record of keeping antibiotic residues out of the milk supply, with the most recent national survey finding that only 0.017% of all bulk milk tankers, or 1 in 6,000 loads, showed any sign of an animal antibiotic drug residue. On-farm vigilance in following drug withdrawal times has led to a steady decline in antibiotic residue, falling from an already low level of 0.061% in 2002, a decline of nearly 75% in the last decade.

These figures are based on information reported to the Food and Drug Administration’s National Milk Drug Residue Data Base by state regulatory agencies under the National Conference on Interstate Milk Shipments (NCIMS). Data are reported on the extent of the national testing activities, the analytical methods used, the kind and extent of the animal drug residues identified, and the amount of contaminated milk that was removed from the human food supply.

All milk loads are tested for antibiotics, and any tanker which tests positive for a drug residue is rejected before entering a dairy plant and does not enter the market for human consumption.



National Pork Board's Meimann, Wegner to Retire April 1

Jim Meimann, senior vice president for governance and operations for the National Pork Board, and Mike Wegner, vice president of communications for the National Pork Board, will retire April 1.

Meimann began his 27 years of service to the pork industry with the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) in 1986 at the start of the Checkoff and joined the Pork Board in 2001. Over the years, he has made many contributions to the industry. One notable contribution included organizing the Checkoff and in ensuring a smooth transition during the separation of NPPC and the National Pork Board.

"Few individuals have done so much for the pork industry, with so little fanfare," National Pork Board CEO Chris Novak said. "Jim's farm background, passion for producers and the pork industry, institutional knowledge and attention to detail have always made him the person that producers and staff turn to for help in solving problems. He has been a cornerstone for work done for, with and on behalf of producers."

This has included guiding legal counsel during a five-year trademark infringement challenge of the use of Pork. The Other White Meat. He helped secure a resounding and precedent-setting victory. He also has been the chief advisor and counselor to five different Pork Board and NPPC CEOs, who have all counted on him for his wisdom, experience and professionalism.

Prior to his service to the pork industry, Meimann was an Iowa assistant secretary of agriculture in charge of marketing, administration, commodity promotion and commodity referendums.

Wegner, with the Pork Board for 11 years, has been instrumental in branding the Pork Checkoff and helping producers understand how their Checkoff is invested on their behalf. When he came on board in 2001, just over half of producers supported the work of the Checkoff compared with 85 percent today.

"Through Mike's vision, his energy for telling the pork story and his dedication, he has worked tirelessly to ensure that pork producers understood how their Checkoff dollars were creating a return for the industry," Novak said. "He has brought a unique perspective to our team that has challenged us to go farther than convention would dictate."

During his time with the National Pork Board, Wegner led a team of industry leaders in developing the pork industry's ethical principles that serve as the foundation for the We Cares initiative. He helped create the Operation Main Street speakers program and has overseen the development of a social media program, an industry-leading issues management program and has been a major contributor to the U.S. Farmers ? Ranchers Alliance's consumer outreach efforts.



February Marks Another Big Month for CWT Export Assistance

In February, Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) helped member cooperatives make 85 foreign sales of cheese, butter, and whole milk powder totaling 22.8 million pounds of product.

The 43 cheese sales assisted by CWT totaled 10.8 million pounds of cheddar, Gouda, and Monterey Jack cheese. The 40 butter sales amounted to 11.9 million pounds of product, while two sales of whole milk powder totaling 130,073 pounds were made as well.

This brought total CWT-assisted sales in 2013 to 30.1 million pounds of cheese, 21.6 million pounds of butter, and 218,258 pounds of whole milk powder. The milk equivalent of this amount was 749.1 million pounds, or the annual production of 35,600 cows.

CWT is a significant factor in exports of U.S. dairy products, accounting for 83% of American-type cheese exports and 18% of all cheese exports in 2012. CWT export assistance also accounted for 62% of all U.S. butter exports.