Friday October 11 Ag News

Smith Votes to Send Farm Bill to Conference Committee

Congressman Adrian Smith (R-NE) issued the following statement today after voting in favor of a resolution to send the Farm Bill to a conference committee with the Senate:

“Progress on a new Farm Bill has been uneven and at times frustrating, but today’s vote is another step toward providing long term certainty for producers and consumers.  Hopefully the conference committee works quickly to negotiate a final product which can pass both the House and the Senate.  I appreciate the patience of Nebraska’s agriculture producers and their feedback as we continue working to get this priority done.”



Dodge County Puts A-FAN’s Developmental Plan to Good Use

Agriculture drives Nebraska’s economy. As farming goes, so goes the state, with one job in four related to agriculture. And the biggest economic driver in the state is its $7.2 billion livestock farming industry.

The industry’s continued economic strength, requires proactive community efforts to build sustainable, interdependent growth in the livestock industry. To accomplish this goal, livestock farmers need the support of area businesses.

That’s where A-FAN comes in.

“A-FAN’s goal is to help communities take advantage of their strengths and potential to create sustainable economic growth,” says Willow Holoubek, executive director, “We need to actively involve all stakeholders in both the public and private sectors to implement sustainable livestock development in rural Nebraska.”

AFAN is providing information and guidance to community leaders who ask for assistance in making informed decisions about which opportunities are best in the long run for the economic vitality of their communities.

A-FAN’s developmental program dovetails nicely with the Nebraska Department of Agriculture’s Livestock Friendly County program, which recognizes counties that actively support their livestock industries. To date, 23 of the state’s 93 counties have earned the livestock-friendly designation with three more applications pending.

Dodge County, which applied this summer for Livestock Friendly County designation, is taking full advantage of the A-FAN resources to make the county a destination for dairy operations looking to relocate. The Fremont Area Chamber of Commerce and its Agricultural Business and Natural Resources Council, with A-FAN’s support, has aggressively stepped up to encourage  the nation’s dairy producers to consider relocating to Dodge County.

Studies show that within a 100-miles radius of Fremont, there are seven dairy processing plants operating at a combined milk supply deficit roughly equivalent to the production from 30,000 to 50,000 cows. That deficit is problematic, according to Ron Tillery, executive director of the Greater Fremont Area Chamber of Commerce.

“The danger is that if they can’t get sufficient milk supplies these dairy plants might close and move somewhere else,” Tillery says. The A-FAN plan allows his coalition of stakeholders to prepare for any potential opportunity in an orderly and systematic way. The Chamber, with A-FAN, spearheaded the development of the Dodge County Livestock and Dairy Development Plan.

As a result of Dodge County’s planning, a California dairy operation approached the county in July about relocation potential. Because Dodge County had done its groundwork with A-FAN and its developmental plan, the California dairyman traveled to Fremont in mid-July to entertain a presentation from the county’s coalition.

The meeting was hosted by A-FAN, the Greater Fremont Chamber of Commerce, Greater Fremont Development Council, Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce, and the Greater Omaha Development Council.

The Dodge County presentation to the visiting dairy farmer addressed his areas of concern, including the availability of land and water and ready access to abundant feed. Also discussed: the existence of nearby dairy markets and processors, labor availability and strong dairy industry infrastructure.

In the presentation, the group emphasized Nebraska’s “golden triangle” of abundant resources. This includes corn, soybeans, biofuels and feed byproducts which create interdependence of livestock farmers and row crop farmers.

The dairy industry provides an excellent starting point for livestock development in Nebraska, Holoubek says, pointing to the recent efforts by Dodge County business leaders. “Dodge County is stepping forward to get things done. Hats off to them.”  Currently negotiations are ongoing with Dairy Farmers in other states.



A-FAN’s Annual Stakeholders’ Meeting is Nov. 25

Join Us for A-FAN’s Annual Stakeholders’ Meeting Nov. 25.  Livestock markets analyst and small farms expert Dr. Chris Hurt will be the keynote speaker for A-FAN’s annual stakeholders’ meeting Mon., Nov. 25, at the Embassy Suites in Downtown Lincoln. Coffee and conversation starts at 9:00a.m., with the program starting at 9:30. Lunch will follow the program.

Nebraska Director of Agriculture Greg Ibach will give the opening remarks. A-FAN’s annual report and special awards will precede Dr. Hurt’s presentation.

Dr. Hurt is professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University. He specializes in evaluating the livestock industry structure, and analyzing the outlook of live cattle and hogs. He is known for his examination of the factors that can influence structural changes in the pork industry, and has evaluated the adoption of new technologies in moderate-sized midwestern farms.

Interested in attending? Simply RSVP to emilyt@a-fan.org. (There is no cost for members and guests.)



UNL Extension Crop Harvest Reports

Keith Jarvi, Extension Educator in Dakota, Dixon, and Thurston counties:  We had 2.5 to over 4 inches of rain here with a few areas reporting even more. We had gone for over a month with no significant rain, but have had good rains since Oct. 1. If you could take out last week’s tornado near Wayne, the weather has been beneficial. About 20% of the soybeans have been harvested and some high moisture corn is out. The beans are ready but the ground needs to dry out some more; harvest will likely pick up again in the next day or two. In one field in the path of the tornado, the corn stalks were left standing upright, but all the ears and leaves had been sucked off the plant. A field of soybeans near the airport, an area sustaining heavy damage, had an overturned pivot and a semi-trailer that was overturned into it, but the beans looked fairly good.

John Wilson, Extension Educator in Burt County: Last week we had 2 to 5 inches of rain across the county which shut down everybody in the fields. We haven’t gotten much harvested in our area — maybe 10% of the soybeans and in corn, about the only activity has been chopping silage or harvesting some high moisture corn and maybe opening up a few fields. Yields have sounded good from the few reports I have heard: soybeans at about 50 bu/ac or better and dryland corn around 200 bu/ac. No reports on irrigated corn yet. If we get some good drying conditions this week, almost all soybean fields appear that they are ready to go now although a good frost would help them. Farmers are reporting having to go slow because of green stems on soybeans that are testing around 11% moisture, so that may make harvest a challenge for some. (10/8/13)

Michael Rethwisch, Extension Educator in Butler County: Soybean harvest progressed rapidly through the middle of last week until halted by several rains, which totaled about 2.5 inches across the county. Rainfall was helpful for fall pasture and alfalfa growth. Soybean harvest is approximately 50% complete, with corn about 2% harvested. Rainfed soybean yields have ranged from 45 to 65 bu/ac, and some early rainfed corn yields have been reported to be near 180 bu/ac. Some irrigated soybean yields have been reported near 80 bu/ac. (10/7/13)

Gary L. Zoubek, Extension Educator in York County: This past week we received 1.60-3.40 inches of rain in the York area. At our office we received 2.52 inches. I’m guessing that we have 50% of the beans harvested and 15-25% of the corn harvested. Many producers were harvesting beans at 8%-12% moisture. I have seen some stem borer and green stems in the bean fields being harvested. Rainfed soybean yields are varying greatly (25-50 bu/ac) depending on tillage systems, maturity, and whether they received timely rains. The irrigated plots that I’ve checked have varied from 72-79 bu/ac.Producers have made good progress at harvesting much of the seed corn fields in our area. Yield have been looking good. Really just getting started on the corn. (10/7/13)



Iowa soybean farmers find variable, some “better than expected” early harvest yields

Nothing was shutting down at Justin Dammann’s Page County farm this week. Despite the partial federal government shutdown that has put a lock on reports regularly provided by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Dammann, an Iowa Soybean Association (ISA) member and Farm & Food Ambassador, had progress to report.

“There’s no shutdown here. We can’t put harvest on hold,” joked Dammann, who was combining soybeans and corn. “Things are still hit or miss regarding yields.”

Dammann, who had success with early spring planting, said southwest Iowa soybeans took a hit in when things went dry in August. “We didn’t get any rain that month,” explained Dammann. “So yields are averaging about 30 bushels an acre. Our corn is doing better than expected, ranging from 150 to 180 bushels per acre. We still have quite a bit of both crops to harvest, so we’re hoping to find stronger numbers.”

Iowa harvest progress
Iowa’s soybean harvest is 29 percent complete as of today, based on estimates from Iowa State University (ISU) Extension and Outreach field agronomists. Northwest Iowa appears to be the furthest along at 42 percent, while 20 percent is common in other parts of the state.

For updates on this year’s soybean harvest, go to the ISA Soybean Brief at http://www.iasoybeans.com/SoybeanBrief/index.html.

Clarke McGrath, ISU field agronomist based in Harlan, said harvest is in high gear in southwest Iowa with farmers concentrating on soybeans. Producers are trying to avoid issues with low-moisture beans prone to shattering like they’ve experienced before, he said.

“A light switch went off and they are hitting beans hard,” McGrath said. He added that farmers in the area were hoping for soybean yields in the low to mid-40s in early September. He said many are finding yields in the 50s, with some fields pushing 60 bushels per acre at about 12 percent moisture.

“Farmers from Creston to Schleswig are pleasantly surprised; shocked may be a better word,” said McGrath. “Good genetics are a big factor. Those areas got a few timely rains and favorable temperatures at the right time.”

Soybean farmers are harvesting fields with varying yield levels. While some yields are better than expected, other farmers may face yields worse than last year.

Terry Basol, ISU extension agronomist based at the Northeast Iowa Research Farm near Nashua, said soybean yields are extremely variable, ranging from 35 to 70 bushels per acre. Corn, for the most part, is averaging 180 to 200 bushels per acre. “All in all, most growers are surprised with their yields; a little better than originally thought,” Basol said.

In Wapello County, ISA Food & Farm Ambassador Pat Swanson reported that an inch of rain this past weekend slowed down harvest a bit. 

“Our soybean yields have been averaging between 42 to 58 bushels per acre, with moisture around 12 percent,” she said. “So far, we have harvested corn planted in May with yields ranging from 150 to 200 bushels per acre, with moisture from 18 to 23 percent. We expect the yields to go down as we get into the later-planted fields.” The Swansons have also planted cover crops.
 
Shutdown impact
Chad Hart, ISU Extension grain economist, said a lack of government harvest and production reports hasn’t affected commodity markets yet. But that could change when combines are parked for the season.

Since the partial shutdown of the government started, Hart said November soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade have only fluctuated 25 cents. At noon today, November beans were $12.93 per bushel.

“As we move past harvest into winter, that’s when we would see the lack of information (especially demand) have an impact on markets and marketing,” Hart added.

While ISA President Brian Kemp was pleased with soybean yields that were five to 10 bushels better than he expected a month ago, he’s not happy about the lack of information available for farmers at one of their busiest times.

“It concerns me that farmers and others are relying more on anecdotal or unfamiliar sources for information,” said Kemp who farms near Sibley.

Grant Kimberley, ISA market development director, echoed Kemp’s concern.

“We’re not receiving those export commitments and reports, which doesn’t allow us to track changes (in sales),” said Kimberley. “Theoretically, we aren’t seeing the pricing info, either. With the lack of a Farm Bill and compounded with not having access to the Foreign Agricultural Services information, U.S. agriculture and organizations such as the U.S. Soybean Export Council can’t function as needed. Information is vital in this day and age. The shutdown prevents that access, but the work (of farmers, traders, etc.) continues.”



Post-doctoral Research Associate Joins Iowa Beef Center

Post-doctoral research associate Megan Van Emon came to Iowa State University for the opportunity to work with beef-related research and with extension faculty and staff. After several months, she couldn’t imagine herself being anywhere else.

"I’d been working on my Ph.D. program at North Dakota State University when I heard about this position at Iowa State,” Van Emon said. “I was excited about the possibility of working with Stephanie Hansen in her research on trace minerals in feedlot cattle and with ethanol co-products. Meeting with her and Dan Loy at the American Society of Animal Science national meeting in 2012 reinforced my desire to be part of that, and I’ve been here at Iowa State since January of this year.”

Van Emon’s interest in ruminant nutrition began with showing beef cattle as a 4-H’er, continued through her college career and now plays a primary role in her Iowa State position.

“As a graduate student, I worked on supplementing metabolizable protein to ewes during late gestation, and then evaluated the effects on offspring growth performance and reproductive efficiency,” she said. “During my graduate degree programs, I conducted beef cattle research as well.”

As a post-doctoral research associate, Van Emon said she’s really hitting her stride with research and extension opportunities, including mineral nutrition research in feedlot cattle and a national feed efficiency grant project.

“I’m working with Drs. Hansen and Loy on the multi-year USDA-funded project ‘National Program for Genetic Improvement of Feed Efficiency in Beef Cattle,’” she said. “We’re working with 10 other institutions to develop genetic selection tools in eight different beef breeds to improve feed efficiency.”

That project is now in its third year, and Van Emon said researchers hope to discover similar genetic markers across breeds that improve feed efficiency. That discovery could help reduce feed costs and improve beef cattle production.

In addition to her involvement with various research topics and projects, Van Emon is working with Loy and others on learning to plan, develop and maintain a successful extension program.



Zoetis Awards PRRS Innovation Research Grant to Iowa State University

Zoetis has awarded a $100,000 PRRS Innovation Research Grant to Kyoungjin Yoon, DVM, PhD, and Jianqiang Zhang, MD, PhD, investigators at Iowa State University College of Veterinary Medicine, to conduct research into virus characterization and the immunobiology of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS).

The research project will explore the incorporation of functional genomic knowledge into sequencing practice in order to better characterize the PRRS virus and ultimately improve decision-making for intervention. The research grant will contribute to an Iowa State University team's study, "Better Understanding of Genetic and Antigenic Relationship among PRRS Viruses and Application of Next-Generation Sequencing Technology to Characterization of PRRSV."

Since the discovery of the PRRS virus more than 20 years ago, the disease has cost the U.S. swine industry more than $664 million annually, according to a 2011 study conducted by Iowa State University and funded by the Pork Checkoff.1 A lack of clear understanding of the immunobiology and epidemiology of PRRS has contributed to suboptimum prevention and control of the virus.

"Zoetis is committed to collaboration with external research partners who share our vision for innovation," says Michelle Haven, DVM, PhD, senior vice president, corporate development, alliances and solutions, Zoetis. "Bringing together different research perspectives is a key in helping develop new products and technologies for our customers, addressing unmet needs in the veterinary profession and understanding important issues in the pork industry."

The investigators aim to develop a procedure to sequence the complete genome of the PRRS virus, adding to what is currently known about the virus, and provide better insight into viral evolution, emergence, transmission and clinical significance.

"Our goal for this research project is to increase our understanding of the PRRS virus," said Dr. Yoon, professor of veterinary diagnostic and production animal medicine at Iowa State University. "This generous grant from Zoetis allows us to expedite our research and will contribute to the development of the next generation of PRRS vaccines and intervention strategies."

Research proposals for the PRRS Innovation Research Grant were reviewed and evaluated by a qualified Zoetis committee including PhD virologists and PRRS technical experts.  Applications were accepted from university staff, advanced study students at universities and practicing doctors of veterinary medicine conducting research in the United States.



Mt. Pleasant is home to Iowa’s Best Breaded Pork Tenderloin

The Iowa Pork Producers Association has selected a southeast Iowa restaurant as the winner of the 2013 Best Breaded Pork Tenderloin Contest.

River Rock Café in Mt. Pleasant will receive $500, a plaque and statewide publicity for winning IPPA’s 11th annual contest. IPPA’s Restaurant and Foodservice Committee will make the official award presentation at the café on Oct. 16.

“I am just so amazed to have won,” said owner Butch Bittle. “I have been working toward this award since we opened and it’s such an honor for both me and my staff. Hats off to the local pork producers who raise the product for me!”

River Rock Café double coats its hand-pounded pork tenderloins in a cracker and bread crumb mixture daily and serves roughly 500 a week.

209 Main in Paton came in a close second and will receive $250 and a plaque. Rounding out the top 5 finalists was the Hard Luck Café in Kalona, Doosky’s Pizza & Patio Restaurant in Hinton and Malarky’s Pub in Storm Lake. These three restaurants will receive an honorable mention plaque to display in their restaurant.

Everyone who nominated River Rock was put in a drawing for $100 from IPPA. The winner is Jordan Ross of Mt. Pleasant.

“The best breaded pork tenderloin contest provides the opportunity for restaurant owners to talk about pork and share their pride in an Iowa product,” said Chef Phil Carey, committee member. “The winning restaurant is a small, very unique place that makes you feel welcome when you walk in. The owner is very passionate about pork and this award will make his whole year!”

The best breaded pork tenderloin contest continues to be a highlight for many Iowans. The contest attracted 373 nominations this year and 42 restaurants received the required three or more nominations. Initial judging was done by producers and members. The five finalists were selected in early September and final judging of those restaurants was completed earlier this month by a judging panel appointed by the IPPA Restaurant and Foodservice Committee. The tenderloins are judged on the quality of the pork, taste, physical characteristics and eating experience.

The contest recognizes Iowa dining establishments that support the swine industry by putting pork on their menu.  All restaurants, cafes and taverns that serve breaded pork tenderloin sandwiches can be nominated for the award each year. Previous contest winners also are eligible, but are prohibited from winning two consecutive years.

River Rock Café is open seven days a week for breakfast, lunch and dinner, with extended hours on Friday and Saturday, as well as during the summer months.



CONVERSATION ON FARM SIZE AND QUESTIONS ABOUT “BIG AG” FOCUS OF OCTOBER 24 FOOD DIALOGUES

There are many factors that influence food-purchasing decisions, including the methods used to grow and raise food.  Increasingly, consumers are hearing they should be concerned about larger farms, and may be making purchasing decisions without understanding how food is grown and raised on farms of any size. U.S. Farmers & Ranchers Alliance (USFRA) will address the differences, and similarities, between large and small farms, at its next Food Dialogues event, which will be held in Boston on Thursday, October 24. The event will stream live online at www.fooddialogues.com.

Timed to Food Day, the Food Dialogues: Boston event, “Does Farm Size Really Matter? From environmental stewardship to animal care, are small and big farms that different?” will feature a panel of farmers, ranchers and food pundits. The panel will explore farm size and ownership and will address recent attacks on industrial agriculture and food production. Panel participants will be asked to address questions such as:
·    What is a factory farm?  Is it fair to call any farm or ranch a factory farm?
·    How do standards and regulations differ on small or big farms and ranches? 
·    Who runs big farms? 
·    Are family farms still thriving in America?
·    Is entertainment and creative advertising attacks on large-scale, production agriculture a new take on marketing smaller, niche brands and companies?

USFRA will announce the full-panel line-up in the coming weeks, and is inviting speakers from all sides of the topic.  USFRA plans to invite farmers – big and small – advocates and consumer brands to the conversation.  USFRA will be extending an invitation to Chipotle to participate on the panel. The company recently ignited attention on this topic with its new animated film and video game concepts.



2013 Crop Means More Than Enough for Renewable Fuel Standard

When the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency releases the 2014 volume requirements for the Renewable Fuel Standard, the statute currently calls for corn starch ethanol to account for 14.4 billion gallons, an amount that corn farmers and the ethanol industry can easily provide, the National Corn Growers Association noted.

"Across the country right now, our nation's corn farmers are harvesting what the USDA and others are estimating to be the largest corn crop ever," said NCGA President Martin Barbre. "We're looking forward to not only meeting all needs for food, feed and fuel, but to ensure ending stocks, or surplus, of nearly 2 billion bushels. Those who want to reduce how much corn ethanol is in the RFS for 2014 need to realize the tremendous productive capacity of the American farmer to meet all needs."

In its most recent estimate of the 2013 corn crop, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated that 13.8 billion bushels of corn will be harvested this fall, for a total available corn supply of 14.5 billion bushels - more than 2.5 billion bushels more than the corn available last year.

While this week's supply and demand report is delayed because of the partial government shutdown, as of last month USDA was estimating increased amounts of corn to be available for feed, ethanol and export uses - and 1.9 billion bushels in ending stocks.

"The fact is, while we are doing our part to grow the corn needed for the RFS, others have not been doing their part to expand the infrastructure to meet the standard," Barbre said. "We know consumers want a choice of fuels that include domestic and renewable. Big Oil and others have been fighting the RFS and causing needless delays that have been holding back true fuel freedom in our country."



Working Around the Federal Shutdown: Safeguarding US Ag Exports

The partial federal government shutdown that began Oct. 1 has reverberated through global equity, currency and commodity markets. The lack of official data and statistics has hog buyers rethinking the way they pay producers, grain traders wondering about crop production and equity traders wondering about official jobs figures. While budget negotiations may stretch into another debt crisis on Oct. 17, with the possibility of a government default, one thing still remains steadfast and solid—the U.S. commitment to exports.

Foreign market reaction to the shutdown remains cautiously mixed. The lapse in accustomed points of contact and data reports is unsettling to some buyers, but trade continues. Marri Carrow, USGC director of communications, is currently overseas telling major Asian markets that the United States is emphatically "open for business," and Kevin Roepke, USGC manager of global trade, is encouraging importers to actively manage their risk to mitigate the increased uncertainty.

"The Standard & Poor's 500 volatility index (VIX) is up almost 50 percent in the past three weeks and down 15 percent today alone," Roepke said. "Without the core government reports, the market lacks a clear direction and is vulnerable to various headline swings—especially if and when the government fully reopens. Nevertheless, even after a shutdown, you won't find a country, or a government as dedicated to exports as the United States."

A great example of this is the United States keeping export inspectors on the job. DTN Political Correspondent Jerry Hagstrom reported that despite widespread furloughs, federal grain inspectors would report to work to ensure America's ability to satisfy global grain demand. Even though much of the USDA website remains offline, traders were also relieved to find out that federal grain inspection reports would be released to the public.

In another act of export camaraderie, the Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS) issued a new directive, prior to shutdown, regarding inspections of containers. The regulation, which can be found here helps clarify and level the playing field to "facilitate the marketing of bulk U.S. grain exported by containers" to all destinations, except Mexico and Canada. In sum, the directive states:
-    Applicants may request composite sample analysis or average grade/average composite analysis of export containers provided that the load order represents these provisions included in the export sales contract.
-    Composite samples will be limited to a maximum of 20 containers.
-    Inspection/Weighing of containers included in a composite must also be loaded in a reasonably continuous operation, with breaks in loading not to exceed 88 hours, sometimes referred to in the industry as the "88 hour rule"

"This is an initiative the Council has been tracking for a while now," Roepke commented. "The partial shutdown is a nuisance, but a core of essential federal employees are on the job, and we are finding ways to keep trade flowing."



Shutdown Will Not Affect Grain Inspection, Phytosanitary Certificate Issuance

According to an update last week from the North American Export Grain Association, those activities conducted by USDA’s Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration (GIPSA) and the Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS) that are supported by user fees will continue despite the shutdown of the federal government. These activities include inspection and weighing services. Additionally, the issuance of phytosanitary certificates by USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service for plant products bound for export will continue throughout the shutdown, as those activities are supported by user fees as well.



Falling Feed Prices to Push Hogs Back to Profitable

Hog production is returning to profitability as feed prices fall, and a reduction in slaughter numbers seems to show that producers are noticing, Purdue Extension agricultural economist Chris Hurt says.

Major drought in 2012 ransacked the nation's feed crops, sending livestock feed prices sky high and driving hog producers to quickly send animals to slaughter. With a large-yielding corn crop expected this year, feed prices have been decreasing, which has turned around the outlook for hog profits.

"This year, the hog outlook is almost the opposite of what it was last year," Hurt said. "Feed prices, especially corn, have been falling sharply. The hog outlook is profitable, so producers are more likely to be retaining or building the breeding herd and weights are expected to increase as producers hold onto market hogs longer to gain profits on every pound."

The most recent hog numbers available from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, from the September Hogs and Pigs Report, showed that hog inventories are unchanged to somewhat larger compared to a year ago.

"Yet slaughter in recent weeks has been very low, seemingly indicating a divergence from USDA's reading," Hurt said.

Between mid-August and the end of September, slaughter rates dropped by an average of more than 5 percent and weekly slaughter rates have been down anywhere from 3 to 10 percent.

One explanation for the perceived difference in USDA's inventory numbers and slaughter rates could be related to animal deaths from the porcine epidemic diarrhea virus, or PEDV. The USDA doesn't track PEDV deaths, so Hurt said those numbers aren't known for certain and it could be several months before hog markets are able to sort out the effects of the virus.

Another explanation for seemingly low slaughter rates could be attributed to the way the industry and markets evaluate herd numbers with year-to-year comparisons. Hogs went to market at higher-than-normal rates in 2012 because high feed prices meant the cost of production was higher than producers could sustain.

"What is being viewed as a very low slaughter in recent weeks might be due to an aberration in the slaughter numbers a year ago," Hurt said. "The unusually high slaughter in the late-summer of 2012 was being driven by the drought. Record-high feed prices and large anticipated losses provided a grave outlook for the industry, and some producers began to adjust."

Those adjustments included an increase in sow slaughter and, in some cases, total-herd liquidation a year ago. Now that the outlook has improved, breeding herd expansion has likely started and hogs are being held to higher weights. These factors mean that fewer animals are headed to market right now and prices have strengthened.

"Given low slaughter numbers, cash prices of hogs have been sharply higher than in the same period in 2012 when they averaged $55 per live hundredweight," Hurt said. "With lower slaughter this year, they have averaged about $68 since mid-August.

Higher cash hog prices combined with lower feed costs are the important drivers for a profitable outlook over the next 12 months. Hurt said eastern Corn Belt live-hog prices are expected to average in the mid-$60s in the final quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014. Spring and summer prices are expected to move slightly higher.

With the cost of production estimated at $57 per hundredweight, Hurt said cash prices in the mid- to high-$60s would mean profits of more than $20 per head.

"These profits will enable producers to recover losses of about the same amount in the past year due to the drought," he said.



Tractor, Combine Sales Continued to Rise in September

According to the Association of Equipment Manufacturer's monthly "Flash Report," the sale of all tractors in the U.S. for September 2013, were up 8% compared to the same month last year.  For the month, two-wheel drive smaller tractors (under 40 HP) were up 8% from last year, while 40 & under 100 HP were up 9%. Sales of 2-wheel drive 100+ HP were up 10%, while 4-wheel drive tractors were down 22%.  Combine sales were down 24% for the month.

For the nine months in 2013, a total of 153,342 tractors were sold which compares to 136,797 sold thru September 2012, representing an 12% increase year to date.  Year to date, two-wheel drive smaller tractors (under 40 HP) are up 12% over last year, while 40 & under 100 HP are up 7%. Sales of 2-wheel drive 100+ HP are up 23%, while 4-wheel drive tractors are up 3%.  Sales of combines for the first nine months totaled 7,696, an increase of 16% over the same period in 2012.