January 10 USDA Crop Production, Stocks, and WASDE Reports

NEBRASKA 2013 CROP PRODUCTION SUMMARY

Corn for grain production in Nebraska based on year-end surveys is estimated at a record high 1.62 billion bushels, up 26 percent from 2012, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.  Yield of 170 bushels per acre is up 28 bushels from last year and the second highest of record.  Farmers harvested 9.55 million acres of corn for grain, up 5 percent from 2012 and the second largest harvested acreage since 1933.

Soybean production for 2013 totaled 252 million bushels, up 22 percent from 2012.  Yield, at 53.0 bushels per acre, is up 11.5 bushels from a year earlier.  Area for harvest, at 4.76 million acres, is down 5 percent from 2012.

Sorghum for grain production in 2013 is estimated at 9.38 million bushels, more than double last year’s production.  Yield, at 67 bushels per acre, is up 8 bushels from a year earlier. Area harvested for grain, at 140,000 acres, is more than double a year ago.

Alfalfa production of 2.42 million tons is up 6 percent from a year earlier.  The average yield, at 3.45 tons per acre, is up 0.50 ton per acre from last year.  Area harvested for dry hay, at  700,000 acres, is down 9 percent from 2012.  Seedings of alfalfa during 2013 totaled  140,000 acres, up 17 percent from the year earlier.  All other hay production, at 2.52 million tons, is up 40 percent from 2012.  The average yield, at 1.40 tons per acre, is up 0.40 ton per acre from last year.  Area harvested of other dry hay is 1.80 million acres, unchanged from a year ago.  Total forage production from alfalfa and other hay was 5.06 million tons in 2013, up 20 percent from the previous year. 

Proso millet production in 2013 is estimated at 4.58 million bushels, near seven times last year’s production.  Yield, at 32 bushels per acre, is up 20 bushels from a year earlier. Area harvested for grain, at 143,000 acres, is more than two times that of 2012.

Oil sunflower production in 2013 is 21.7 million pounds, up 5 percent from last year.  Yield, at 850 pounds per acre, is up 150 pounds from a year earlier.  Area harvested, at 25,500 acres, is down 14 percent from 2012.  Non-oil sunflower production of 13.0 million pounds is near double last year.  Yield, at 1,000 pounds per acre, is up 100 pounds from a year earlier. Area harvested, at 13,000 acres, is up 78 percent from 2012.

Sugarbeet production of 1.31 million tons is down 10 percent from 2012.  Yield, at 29.7 tons per acre, is down 0.10 ton from the record high set a year earlier.  Area harvested, at 44,200 acres, is 10 percent less than 2012.

Dry edible bean production of 2.75 million hundredweight, is down 14 percent from a year ago.  Yield, at 2,350 pounds per acre, is down 50 pounds from a year earlier.  Area harvested, at 117,000 acres, is down 12 percent from 2012.

Potato production is 8.42 million hundredweight, down 19 percent from last year.  Yield, at a record high 460 hundredweight per acre, is up 15 pounds from a year earlier.  Area harvested, at 18,300 acres, is down 21 percent from 2012.

NEBRASKA WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS
Winter wheat seeded area for harvest in 2014 is estimated at 1.50 million acres, up 2 percent from last year’s seeded area of 1.47 million acres, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. 



NEBRASKA DECEMBER 1, 2013 GRAIN AND HAY STOCKS

Nebraska corn stocks in all positions on December 1, 2013 totaled 1.25 billion bushels, up 30 percent from 2012, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.  Of the total, 760 million bushels are stored on farms, up 33 percent from a year ago.  Off-farm stocks, at a record high 489 million bushels, are up 26 percent from last year. 

Soybeans stored in all positions totaled 164 million bushels, up 17 percent from last year.  On-farm stocks of 39 million bushels are down 7 percent from a year ago, while off-farm stocks, at 125 million bushels, are up 27 percent from 2012. 

Wheat stored in all positions totaled 36.2 million bushels, down 24 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks of 2.90 million bushels are down 24 percent from 2012 and off-farm stocks of     33.3 million bushels are also down 24 percent from last year. 

Sorghum stored in all positions totaled 6.57 million bushels, up 81 percent from 2012.  On-farm stocks of 750,000 are up 7 percent and off farm holdings of 5.82 million are near double last year. 

Hay stocks on Nebraska farms totaled 3.8 million tons on December 1, 2013, up 25 percent from a year earlier.

Grain storage capacity in Nebraska totaled 2.04 billion bushels, up 41.7 million bushels from December 1, 2012.  Total grain storage capacity is comprised of 1.15 billion bushels of on-farm storage, up 20 million bushels from last year, and 885 million bushels of off-farm storage, up 21.7 million bushels from 2012.



 
Iowa 2013 Crop Production

Corn  for grain production  in  Iowa during 2013  is estimated  at  2.16 billion bushels,  according  to  the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service annual Crop Production 2013 Summary  report. This estimate  is down 2 percent  from  the November 1 forecast but 15 percent above 2012. Iowa's corn for grain yield is estimated at 165 bushels per acre, 4 bushels less than the November 1 forecast but 28 bushels above 2012. Area harvested for grain is estimated at 13.1 million acres, unchanged  from  the  November  1  forecast  and  600,000  acres  below  2012.  Corn  planted  for  all  purposes  in  2013  is estimated at 13.6 million acres, down 4 percent from 2012.

Corn for silage production  is estimated at 7.41 million  tons, up 52 percent from 2012 and  the largest silage production since  1982.  The  silage  yield  estimate  of  19.0  tons  per  acre  is  4.0  tons  per  acre  higher  than  2012.  Producers harvested 390,000 acres of corn for silage, an increase of 65,000 acres from 2012. It is the  largest acreage harvested for silage since 1993.

Soybean  production  is  estimated  at  411 million  bushels  in  2013,  down  1  percent  from  the November  1  forecast  and down 1 percent  from 2012. This  is  the  lowest production  since 2003.  Iowa  soybean growers averaged 44.5 bushels per acre in 2013. This is 0.5 bushel below the November 1 forecast but equal to 2012. The harvested acreage of 9.24 million is 1 percent below the previous year. Soybean planted acreage, at 9.30 million acres, is down 1 percent from 2012.

All  hay  production  for  the  state  is  estimated  at  3.38 million  tons,  up  20  percent  from  the  2.81 million  tons  produced in 2012.  Producers  averaged  2.9  tons  per  acre,  up  from  2.5  tons  in  2012.  All  hay  harvested  acres  is  estimated at 1.17 million acres, up 3 percent from 2012.

Alfalfa  and  alfalfa  mixtures  production  is  estimated  at  2.41  million  tons,  up  14  percent  from  2012.  Producers averaged 3.3  tons  per  acre.  Harvested  acres  are  unchanged  from  last  year  at  730,000.  Iowa  producers seeded 145,000 acres of alfalfa in 2013, up 26 percent from the previous year.  Other hay  production  is  estimated  at  968,000  tons, 39  percent  above  2012. Producers  averaged  2.2  tons  per  acre,  up from 1.7 tons per acre in 2012. Harvested acres of other hay, at 440,000, is up 7 percent from the previous year.



Iowa Grain Stocks

Iowa  corn  stocks  in  all  positions  on  December  1,  2013  totaled  1.74  billion  bushels,  up  11  percent  from December 1, 2012, according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Grain Stocks report. Of the total stocks,  62  percent  were  stored  on-farm.  The  September  -  November  2013  indicated  disappearance totaled 629 million bushels, 16 percent more than the 543 million bushels used during the same period last year. 

Iowa  soybeans  stored  in  all  positions  on  December  1,  2013  totaled  340  million  bushels,  up  1  percent  from the 338 million bushels on hand December 1, 2012. Of  the  total stocks, 40 percent were stored on-farm.  Indicated disappearance for September  - November 2013  is 112 million bushels, 3 percent  less  than  the 115 million bushels used during the same quarter last year. 

Iowa oats  stocks  stored  in  all positions on December 1, 2013  totaled 4.50 million bushels, 21 percent below  the stocks on December 1, 2012. Of the total stocks, 36 percent were stored on-farm. The September - November 2013 indicated disappearance is 624 thousand bushels, 30 percent less than the 891 thousand bushels used during the same quarter last year.



USDA Crop Production 2013 Summary

Corn for grain production is estimated at a record 13.9 billion bushels, down slightly from the November 1 forecast but 29 percent above 2012. The average yield in the United States is estimated at 158.8 bushels per acre. This is down 1.6 bushels from the November forecast but 35.4 bushels above the 2012 average yield of 123.4. Area harvested for grain is estimated at 87.7 million acres, up slightly from both the November forecast and 2012.

Soybean production in 2013 totaled 3.29 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the November 1 forecast and up 8 percent from 2012. United States production is the third largest on record. The average yield per acre is estimated at 43.3 bushels, 0.3 bushel above the November 1 forecast and 3.5 bushels above last year's yield. Harvested area is down slightly from 2012 to 75.9 million acres and is the fourth highest on record.

Sorghum grain production in 2013 is estimated at 389 million bushels, down 6 percent from the November 1 forecast but up 58 percent from 2012. Planted area is estimated at 8.06 million acres, up 29 percent from last year. Area harvested for grain, at 6.53 million acres, is up 32 percent from 2012. Average grain yield, at 59.6 bushels per acre, is down 2.6 bushels from the previous forecast but up 9.8 bushels from last year.

Rice: Production in 2013 is estimated 190 million cwt, up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 5 percent from 2012. Planted area is estimated at 2.49 million acres, down 8 percent from 2012. Area harvested, at 2.47 million acres, is also down 8 percent from the previous crop year. The average yield for all United States rice is estimated at a record high 7,694 pounds per acre, up 34 pounds from the previous forecast and 245 pounds above the previous record high set last crop year.

All cotton production is estimated at 13.2 million 480-pound bales, up 1 percent from last month but down 24 percent from 2012. The United States yield is estimated at 826 pounds per acre, up 20 pounds from the December 1 forecast but down 61 pounds from last year. Harvested area, at 7.66 million acres, is down 1 percent from last month and down 18 percent from last year.

Winter Wheat Seedings:  Planted Acres Down 3 Percent
Winter wheat seeded area for 2014 is expected to total 41.9 million acres, down 3 percent from 2013. Approximate class acreage breakdowns are: Hard Red Winter, 30.1 million; Soft Red Winter, 8.44 million; and White Winter, 3.39 million.



USDA:  Corn Stocks Up 30 Percent from December 2012
Soybean Stocks Up 9 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Down 12 Percent

Corn stored in all positions on December 1, 2013 totaled 10.4 billion bushels, up 30 percent from December 1, 2012. Of the total stocks, 6.38 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 39 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 4.05 billion bushels, are up 17 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2013 indicated disappearance is 4.32 billion bushels, compared with 3.74 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on December 1, 2013 totaled 2.15 billion bushels, up 9 percent from December 1, 2012. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 955 million bushels, up 5 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.19 billion bushels, are up 13 percent from last December. Indicated disappearance for September - November 2013 totaled 1.28 billion bushels, up 4 percent from the same period a year earlier.

All wheat stored in all positions on December 1, 2013 totaled 1.46 billion bushels, down 12 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 399 million bushels, down slightly from last December. Off-farm stocks, at 1.06 billion bushels, are down 16 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2013 indicated disappearance is 407 million bushels, down 6 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Durum wheat stored in all positions on December 1, 2013 totaled 54.2 million bushels, down 11 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 32.8 million bushels, are down 11 percent from December 1, 2012. Off-farm stocks totaled 21.4 million bushels, down 12 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2013 indicated disappearance of 12.2 million bushels is up 64 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Barley stored in all positions on December 1, 2013 totaled 170 million bushels, up 7 percent from December 1, 2012. On-farm stocks are estimated at 81.3 million bushels, 12 percent above a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 88.4 million bushels, are 3 percent above December 2012. The September - November 2013 indicated disappearance is 26.3 million bushels, 32 percent below the same period a year earlier.

Oats stored in all positions on December 1, 2013 totaled 48.0 million bushels, 34 percent below the stocks on December 1, 2012. Of the total stocks on hand, 25.6 million bushels are stored on farms, down 2 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 22.4 million bushels, down 52 percent from the previous year. Indicated disappearance during September - November 2013 totaled 15.5 million bushels.

Grain sorghum stored in all positions on December 1, 2013 totaled 229 million bushels, up 64 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 32.6 million bushels, are up 85 percent from December 1 last year. Off-farm stocks, at 196 million bushels, are up 60 percent from a year earlier. The September - November 2013 indicated disappearance from all positions is 176 million bushels, up 35 percent from the same period in 2012.

Pulse crops stored in all positions on December 1, 2013 and the change from December 1, 2012 are: dry edible peas, 6.88 million cwt, up 33 percent; lentils, 3.59 million cwt, up 1 percent; Austrian winter peas, 151,000 cwt, up 76 percent; all chickpeas, 2,087,000 cwt, up 28 percent; small chickpeas, 736,000 cwt, up 4 percent; and large chickpeas, 1,351,000 cwt, up 47 percent.



USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate Update - January 10, 2014

COARSE GRAINS:  U.S. feed grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected lower with reduced production estimated for corn and sorghum.  Harvested area for corn is raised 436,000 acres, but the estimated yield is lowered 1.6 bushels per acre to 158.8, reducing production 64 million bushels to 13.9 billion.  Sorghum harvested area is lowered 148,000 acres and the yield is lowered 2.6 bushels per acre, reducing production 27 million bushels.

Projected corn use for 2013/14 is raised with feed and residual use projected up 100 million bushels based on September-November disappearance as indicated by the December 1 stocks estimate.  Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50 million bushels reflecting continued strong weekly ethanol production, a reduction in expected sorghum use for ethanol, and higher forecast 2014 gasoline consumption in the latest projections from the Energy Information Administration. 

A 50-million-bushel reduction in other food, seed, and industrial use offsets the increase in use for ethanol.  Corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 161 million bushels lower at 1.6 billion.  The projected 2013/14 season-average farm price for corn is unchanged at the midpoint with the range narrowed to $4.10 to $4.70 per bushel.

Other 2013/14 feed grain changes include increases in projected feed and residual disappearance for sorghum and oats, but a reduction for barley as indicated by December 1 stocks.  Sorghum exports are projected 20 million bushels lower as higher indicated September-November disappearance limits exportable supplies.  Sorghum food, seed, and industrial use is also lowered 20 million bushels. 

Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 1.2 million tons higher despite this month’s reduction in U.S. production and a 1.9-million-ton decrease in global beginning stocks.  Higher 2012/13 corn exports for Brazil reduce beginning stocks for 2013/14.  Global barley production for 2013/14 is raised 1.6 million tons with increases for the European Union, Argentina, and Russia.  Foreign corn production is raised 4.3 million tons with higher China production.  China corn production is raised 6.0 million tons reflecting the latest upward revision by the China National Grain and Oil Information Center, indications from the National Bureau of Statistics for total 2013/14 grain production, and review of growing-season weather.  Favorable weather suggests year-to-year yield increases in most of China’s major corn producing areas.  In the northeastern region, above normal rainfall and favorable temperatures were experienced in nearly all of the corn areas.  Harvested area is also raised for China.

Partly offsetting the China corn increase are reductions in 2013/14 corn output for Argentina, Russia, and the European Union.  Production is lowered 1.0 million tons for Argentina with lower expected area and reduced prospects for yields following December heat and dryness.  Production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Russia based on the latest government data.  European Union production is lowered 0.3 million tons with a reduction for France.

Global 2013/14 coarse grain consumption is raised 4.2 million tons with the higher corn use in the United States and higher barley feeding in the European Union and Russia.  World corn trade for 2013/14 is lowered with a 2.0-million-ton reduction in imports expected for China.  Recent rejections of U.S. corn shipments by China and larger domestic corn supplies in China are expected to limit imports during the 2013/14 marketing year.  China sorghum imports, however, are raised 0.5 million tons.  Corresponding reductions in Mexico sorghum imports and feeding raise corn import needs for Mexico.  Corn imports are raised for Mexico and the Philippines, up 0.5 million tons and 0.3 million tons, respectively.  Corn exports for Argentina are lowered 1.0 million tons also supporting this month’s unchanged U.S. corn export projection.  Global corn ending stocks are projected 2.2 million tons lower with an increase for China more than offset by reductions for the United States and Brazil.

OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2013/14 is estimated at 97.3 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from last month.  Larger crops for soybeans, cottonseed, and peanuts are partly offset by reductions for sunflower seed and canola.  Soybean production is estimated at 3.289 billion bushels, up 31 million bushels based on increased yields and harvested area.  The soybean yield is estimated at 43.3 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from the previous estimate.  Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1.700 billion reflecting higher projected soybean meal exports, which partly offsets a reduction for Argentina.  Soybean exports are increased 20 million bushels to 1.495 billion reflecting record shipments during the first quarter of the marketing year and strong sales through December.  Soybean ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 150 million bushels, unchanged for last month.  Soybean oil balance sheet changes include increased production on a higher crush and extraction rate, reduced imports, increased projected exports, and increased ending stocks.

The 2013/14 U.S. season-average farm price forecast for soybeans is narrowed 25 cents on both ends of the range to $11.75 to $13.25 per bushel based on prices reported to date.  The soybean  oil price is forecast at 35.5 to 39.5 cents per pound, down 2.5 cents on both ends.  The soybean meal price is projected at $415 to $455 per short ton, up 15 dollars on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at a record 505.9 million tons, up 3.6 million.  Global soybean production is projected at 286.8 million tons, up 1.9 million on gains for the United States and Brazil.  The Brazil soybean crop projection is raised 1.0 million tons to a record 89.0 million.  The increase is due to higher projected area reflecting recent survey data from the Brazilian government.  Global sunflowerseed production is raised 1.3 million tons to 43.7 million on record forecasts for Ukraine, Russia, and the European Union.  The Ukraine crop is raised 1.0 million tons to 12.5 million on higher yields.  Other changes include increased cottonseed production for China and Argentina, lower cottonseed production for Pakistan, and increased rapeseed production for Russia.

Global oilseed trade for 2013/14 is projected at 128.9 million tons, up slightly from last month.  Increased soybean exports for the United States are partly offset by reduced rapeseed export prospects for Australia and Canada.  Lower soybean meal exports for Argentina resulting from lower soybean crush are offset by gains for the United States, Brazil, and Russia.  Increased global soybean oil trade mainly reflects a higher projection for the United States.  Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 85.1 million tons, up 2.3 million from last month on increased soybean stocks in Argentina and Brazil, increased canola stocks in Canada, and higher sunflowerseed stocks in Russia and Ukraine.

WHEAT:  U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are unchanged this month, but lower expected use raises projected ending stocks 33 million bushels.  Feed and residual use is lowered 60 million bushels reflecting disappearance for June-November as indicated by the December 1 stocks released in the Grain Stocks report.  Feed and residual use is lowered for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Hard Red Spring, and Soft Red Winter wheat.  Seed use is raised 1 million bushels based on the winter wheat planted area reported today in the Winter Wheat Seedings report.  Wheat exports are projected 25 million bushels higher, with an increase for HRW, on the strong pace of sales and shipments and lower expected competition from Argentina, particularly in Brazil’s milling wheat market.  The 2013/14 season-average farm price is projected 10 cents lower at the midpoint with the range narrowed to $6.60 to $7.00 per bushel.

Global 2013/14 wheat supplies are raised 1.5 million tons to 888.8 million with production increases for China and the FSU-12 more than offsetting reductions for Argentina and the European Union.  Production is raised 1.0 million tons for China reflecting the latest estimate by the China National Grain and Oil Information Center and indications from the National Bureau of Statistics for total 2013/14 grain production.  Production is raised 0.6 million tons for Russia and 0.3 million tons for Tajikistan, both based on the latest official indications.  Production is reduced 0.5 million tons for Argentina with harvested area expected lower.  Production for the European Union is lowered 0.2 million tons with small downward revisions for the United Kingdom, Finland, and Denmark.

Global wheat trade for 2013/14 is raised with higher imports projected for Egypt, Japan, and Syria more than offsetting reductions for the Philippines and Tajikistan.  Exports are raised for the European Union and Russia.  Stronger North Africa and Middle East demand drives increases for the European Union and Russia, whereas reductions in Argentina supplies and exports indicate a shift to U.S. supplies for Brazil.  Foreign wheat feeding is lower mostly reflecting a 1.0-million-ton reduction for the European Union where increased exports reduce supplies available to the domestic market.  Larger barley supplies in the European Union this month support a shift to barley feeding.  Global wheat ending stocks are projected 2.6 million tons higher mostly on increases for China and the United States.
 
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: 
The forecasts for total red meat and poultry production for both 2013 and 2014 are lowered from December.  For 2013, beef production is raised, but pork, broiler, and turkey production are reduced.  The forecast for 2014 is reduced as lower pork and turkey production more than offset an increased beef production forecast.  The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released on December 27, indicated that the September-November pig crop was fractionally below a year earlier which will constrain supplies of slaughter hogs in early 2014.  Although producers intend to farrow more sows in the first half of 2014, the impacts of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) will likely slow growth in pigs per litter and keep supplies of market hogs relatively tight during 2014.  Beef production is raised for 2014 as higher-than-expected placements in the later part of 2013 and expected availability of winter pasture support increased cattle marketings and slaughter during the year.  No change is made to 2014 broiler production.  Egg production is reduced slightly for 2013 and 2014.

Beef imports are unchanged for 2013, but are raised slightly for 2014.  Beef exports are raised for both 2013 and 2014 as the pace of exports over the past several months has been strong.  Pork imports and exports for both 2013 and 2014 are unchanged from last month.  The 2013 broiler export forecast is raised slightly based on exports to date, but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged.  Turkey exports for 2013 and 2014 are unchanged from last month.

Animal product prices for 2013 are adjusted based on December data.  For 2014, the cattle price forecast is raised from last month as demand for fed cattle remains strong.  Hog prices are raised as the production forecast is lowered.  Broiler and turkey price forecasts are raised from last month.  Demand for broiler meat is firm, supported by tight supplies of beef.  Turkey prices are expected to be supported by lower forecast production in early 2014.  Egg prices are forecast higher, reflecting current price strength.

The 2013 milk production estimate is reduced from last month, based on recent milk production data.  The forecast for 2014 is raised as improving returns are expected to support a more rapid increase in output per cow.  Fat basis imports are reduced for 2013 and 2014 on lower expected imports of butterfat.  On a skim-solids basis, imports are reduced slightly for 2013 but are unchanged for 2014.  Fat basis exports are raised for both 2013 and 2014 on relatively strong demand for cheese and other products.  Skim-solids exports are reduced slightly for 2013 as NDM exports lagged in November.  However, exports are expected to strengthen in 2014 and the skim-solids export forecast is raised. 

Dairy product and milk prices for 2013 are adjusted to reflect December data.  For 2014, cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are raised as export and domestic demand are expected to strengthen, but the forecast for dry whey is unchanged.  The Class III price is raised due to the higher cheese prices and the Class IV price forecast reflects higher butter and NDM prices.  The all milk price is forecast at $20.60 to $21.40 per cwt for 2014.