August 12 USDA Crop Production and WASDE Reports

NEBRASKA CROP PRODUCTION - CORN 173bu/acre - SOYBEANS 52bu/acre

Based on August 1 conditions, Nebraska's 2014 corn crop is forecast  at  1.51  billion  bushels,  down  7  percent  from  last  year,  according  to  the  USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.  Acreage harvested for grain is estimated at 8.75 million acres, down 8 percent  from  a  year  ago.   Average  yield  is  forecast  at  173 bushels per  acre, up  3 bushels from last year and the second highest of record.
 
Soybean production  in Nebraska  is forecast at 278 million bushels, 10 percent above  last year.  Area  for  harvest,  at  5.35  million  acres,  is  up  12  percent  from  2013.    Yield  is  forecast  at  52 bushels per acre, down 2 bushels from last year.

Nebraska’s 2014 winter wheat crop is forecast at 63.0 million bushels, up 59 percent from last year.  Harvested area for grain, at 1.40 million acres, is up 24 percent from a year ago.  Average yield is forecast at 45 bushels per acre, up 10 bushels per acre from 2013.

Sorghum production of 8.80 million bushels is down 6 percent from a year ago.  Area for grain harvest of 100,000 acres, is down 29 percent from last year.  Yield is forecast at 88 bushels per acre, up 21 bushels from last year.  

Oat production is forecast at 3.24 million bushels, up 3 percent from last month and the largest since 2005.  Harvested area for grain, at 45,000 acres is up 20,000 acres from last year.  Yield is forecast at 72 bushels per acre, up 7 bushels from 2013.

Dry edible bean production is forecast at 2.4 million cwt, down 13 percent from last year.  The average  yield  is  forecast  at  2,000  pounds  per  acre,  down  350  pounds  from  last  year.   Acres planted  by  class  are  as  follows:    Pinto,  58,000;  Great  Northern,  56,000;  Light  Red  Kidney, 11,000; Black, 3,000; All Other, 2,000.

Sugarbeet  production  is  forecast  at  1.24 million  tons,  down  5  percent  from  2013.   Area  for harvest, at 46,000 acres,  is up 4 percent  from  last year.   Yield  is estimated at 27  tons per acre, down 2.7 tons from  a year ago.

Alfalfa hay production  is forecast at 2.88 million  tons, up 19 percent from  last year.   Expected yield, at 4.00 tons per acre, is up 0.55 ton from last year.  All other hay production is forecast at 2.48 million  tons, down 2 percent  from  last  year.   Expected  yield,  at  1.50  tons per acre,  is up  0.1 ton from last year.  



IOWA CROP PRODUCTION - RECORD CORN CROP EXPECTED

Iowa  corn  production  is  forecast  at  a  record  2.44  billion  bushels  according  to  the USDA National Agricultural Statistics  Service  Crop  Production  report.  Based  on  conditions  as  of  August  1,  yields  are  expected  to  average 185 bushels per acre, an increase of 20 bushels per acre from last year.  If realized, the yield will be the highest on record, 3 bushels above  the previous high set  in 2009. Corn planted acreage  is estimated at 13.6 million acres. An estimated 13.2 million of the acres planted will be harvested for grain, a 1 percent increase from 2013. 

Soybean production is forecast at 502 million bushels, a 22 percent increase from the previous year. The August 1 forecast yield is 50 bushels per acre, up 5.5 bushels from 2013. Soybean planted acreage is estimated at 10.1 million acres with 10.0 million acres to be harvested.

Oat production for grain is forecast at 4.29 million bushels.   The expected yield  is 66 bushels per acre, unchanged from 2013, and down 1 bushel from the July forecast.  An estimated 65,000 acres will be harvested for grain.  

Iowa  hay  yield  for  alfalfa  and  alfalfa mixtures  is  expected  to  be  3.70  tons  per  acre with  a  total  production  of 2.70 million  tons, a production increase of 12 percent from  the previous year. The projected yield for other hay  is 2.10 tons per acre, with production at 735,000 tons, decrease of 24 percent from 2013. 

All crop forecasts in this report are based on August 1 conditions and do not reflect weather effects since that time. The  next  corn  and  soybean  production  forecasts,  based  on  conditions  as  of  September  1,  will  be  released  on September 11.



USDA Forecasts Record-High Corn and Soybean Production in 2014 

U.S. soybean producers are expected to produce a record 3.82 billion bushels in 2014, up 16 percent from last year according to the Crop Production report issued today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.  Growing conditions were conducive for corn growers who are also expected to produce a record-high crop at 14.0 billion bushels of corn, up 1 percent from 2013 which was also a record at the time.  Today’s report also included the first production forecast for U.S. cotton. NASS forecasts all cotton production at 17.5 million 480-pound bales, up 36 percent from last year’s 12.9 million bales. Wheat production is forecast up 2 percent from the July forecast but down 5 percent from 2013.  Other key findings in today’s Crop Production report include:

Corn
-    Corn planted area for all purposes is estimated at 91.6 million acres, unchanged from the June estimate but down 4 percent from 2013
-    Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.8 million acres, down 4 percent from last year
-    August 1 objective yield data indicate the greatest number of ears on record for the combined 10 objective yield states (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin)

Despite a late winter season delay in planting, more favorable spring conditions arrived allowing quick planting and largely favorable growing conditions that encouraged the record high production forecast.

Soybeans
-    Area for harvest is forecast at a record 84.1 million acres, unchanged from June but up 11 percent from 2013.
-    Despite a slow planting start, by June 1 fifty percent of the soybean crop had emerged, 21 percentage points ahead of last year’s pace and 5 percentage points ahead of normal. Positive conditions in most soybean-producing areas of the country brought on strong percentages of the crop being rated good to excellent and the record forecast. The largest decline in condition rating was in Kentucky where dry conditions this year resulted in 61 percent of the crop rated as good to excellent, a drop of 26 percentage points.
-    If realized, the forecasted yield will be a record high in Arkansas, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Winter Wheat
-    Production is forecast at 1.40 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the July 1 forecast, but down 9 percent from 2013.
-    Based on August 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 43.1 bushels per acre, up 0.9 from last month but down 4.3 bushels from last year.
-    Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed is 32.4 million acres, up slightly from last year

Cotton
-    Area planted to Upland cotton is estimated at 11.2 million acres, up 10 percent from last year.
-    Harvested Upland cotton area is expected to total 10.1 million acres, up 37 percent from 2013.
-    Expected harvested area of Pima cotton at 175,900 acres is down 12 percent from last year.
-    As of August 3, NASS rated 53 percent of all cotton acreage to be in good to excellent condition compared with 45 percent at this time last year.
-    Record yields are expected in Arizona, Arkansas, Florida and Oklahoma.

NASS surveyed nearly 25,000 producers across the country in preparation for this report. The agency also conducted field and lab measurements on corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton in the major producing states, which usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production.

NASS is gearing up to conduct its September Agricultural Survey, which will focus on wheat, barley, oats and rye growers. That survey will take place during the first two weeks of September.



World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates - August 12, 2014

COARSE GRAINS:  Projected 2014/15 U.S. feed grain supplies are raised this month with higher production forecasts for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats.  Corn production for 2014/15 is forecast 172 million bushels higher at a record 14,032 million bushels.  The first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 167.4 bushels per acre, is up 2.1 bushels from last month’s trend-based projection.  Sorghum production is forecast 19 million bushels higher with the forecast yield 3.0 bushels per acre higher than last month’s projection.  Small yield increases also boost barley and oats production slightly.

Corn supplies for 2014/15 are projected at a record 15,243 million bushels with the increase in production partly offset by a 65-million-bushel reduction in beginning stocks.  Corn use for ethanol and exports are raised 45 million bushels and 20 million bushels, respectively, for 2013/14, based on reported data to date.  Projected corn use for 2014/15 is higher with use for ethanol and exports each raised 25 million bushels, and feed and residual disappearance 50 million bushels higher with the larger crop.  Projected ending stocks for 2014/15 are raised slightly to 1,808 million bushels.  The projected season-average farm price for corn is lowered 10 cents at both ends of the range to $3.55 to $4.25 per bushel. 

Sorghum supplies for 2014/15 are projected 4 million bushels higher as a 15-million-bushel increase in 2013/14 exports lowers 2014/15 beginning stocks, mostly offsetting the higher forecast production.  Projected sorghum exports for 2014/15 are raised 10 million bushels.  The season-average farm price for sorghum is also projected 10 cents lower at both ends of the range to $3.30 to $4.00 per bushel.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 4.9 million tons higher, mostly reflecting larger expected corn crops in the United States and EU and increased barley production for FSU-12.  The smaller projected carryin for the United States partly offsets this month’s 6.6-million-ton increase in global coarse grain output.  EU corn production is raised 1.4 million tons after abundant rainfall and favorable temperatures during July.  FSU-12 barley production is raised 3.1 million tons with a 2.0-million-ton increase for Russia and smaller increases for Belarus and Ukraine.  Barley production is also raised 0.3 million tons for EU.  Reduced prospects for corn, sorghum, and millet, with the delayed monsoon, lower India total coarse grain production 2.7 million tons, partly offsetting increases elsewhere.  Turkey corn production is also lowered 0.3 million tons.

Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is raised this month with a 2.3-million-ton increase in world corn use.  Higher corn use in the United States accounts for most of the increase.  Corn consumption is lowered 2.0 million tons for EU as heavy summer rains have reduced wheat quality across the region, raising prospects for wheat feeding.  Corn food use is reduced 0.5 million tons for India with the smaller crop outlook.  Higher projected corn use for Egypt, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Algeria, and Taiwan partly offset these reductions.  Corn imports are lowered for EU, but raised for Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, Lebanon, and Algeria.  Global barley trade is raised with higher imports for Turkey and higher exports for Russia and Ukraine.  Global 2014/15 coarse grain ending stocks are projected 2.7 million tons higher reflecting larger barley ending stocks.  Global corn ending stocks are lowered slightly.

OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 113.7 million tons, up 0.6 million from last month mainly due to a higher soybean production forecast.  Soybean production for 2014/15 is forecast at 3,816 million bushels, up 16 million due to a higher yield.  Harvested area is forecast at 84.1 million acres, unchanged from July.  The first survey-based soybean yield forecast is a record 45.4 bushels per acre, 0.2 bushels above last month and 2.1 bushels above last year.  Soybean supplies for 2014/15 are projected slightly above last month based on the higher production forecast.  With minimal supply gains, soybean exports and crush are unchanged, leaving ending stocks projected at 430 million bushels.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2014/15 is forecast at $9.35 to $11.35 per bushel, down 15 cents on both ends.  Soybean meal and oil prices are forecast at $340 to $380, down 10 dollars at the midpoint.  Soybean oil prices are forecast at 35 to 39 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint.

U.S. soybean balance sheet changes for 2013/14 include reduced imports and increased exports.  Imports are lowered 5 million bushels to 80 million based in part on revised import data for September – December 2013 from the U.S. Department of Commerce.  Exports are raised 20 million bushels to 1,640 million reflecting both revised export data for September through December 2013 from the Department of Commerce and inspections data for July 2014.  These changes are offset with lower residual use, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 140 million bushels.  With these changes, the 2013/14 soybean stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 4.2 percent, which if realized would be the lowest in more than 40 years.

Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 521.8 million tons, slightly below last month.  Gains for rapeseed and cottonseed are more than offset by reductions for soybeans, sunflowerseed, and peanuts.  Higher soybean production for the United States is offset by a reduction for India where the delayed monsoon results in lower planted area.  Rapeseed production is raised for China, EU, and Ukraine.  These gains are partly offset by a smaller crop projected for Canada with lower area resulting from flooding in parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.  Other changes include lower sunflowerseed production for Russia, reduced peanut production for China, and increased cottonseed production for India.

WHEAT:  Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are raised this month mostly with an increase in forecast Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat production as well as smaller increases for Soft Red Winter (SRW), Hard Red Spring (HRS), and Durum.  Northern parts of the HRW belt have substantially higher yields than the drought damaged southern and central plains.  The largest HRW increases are in Colorado and Nebraska.  After a delay in planting, HRS wheat has had very good growing conditions and yields are forecast well above average.  Feed and residual use for all wheat in 2014/15 is raised 10 million bushels to 155 million due to the larger supplies.  All wheat exports for 2014/15 are increased 25 million bushels because of the larger HRW crop.  The projected season-average farm price range is lowered 30 cents at the midpoint to $5.80 to $6.80 per bushel.  

World wheat production for 2014/15 is raised 10.9 million tons to a record 716.1 million.  The largest foreign increases are 6.0 million tons for Russia, 2.0 million tons for China, and 1.0 million tons for Ukraine.  The Russia and Ukraine increases are based on harvest reports that indicate very high winter wheat yields, especially for Russia.  The China increase reflects the latest government estimates for summer harvested grains.  Production is also raised 0.6 million tons for Belarus and 0.4 million tons for Moldova.  

Global wheat consumption is raised 6.9 million tons due mainly to increased prospects for wheat feeding.  The biggest feeding increase is for EU, which is raised 2.5 million tons.  Excessive harvest-time precipitation in several European production regions has increased the quantity of feed-quality wheat.  Russia wheat feeding is raised 1.0 million tons, and Ukraine and Belarus are each raised 0.5 million tons due to increased production in those countries.  Smaller feeding increases are made for Philippines, Moldova, and Israel.  

Global wheat trade for 2014/15 is nearly unchanged with increases in Russia and the United States offset by reductions in EU and several other countries.  The changes reflect larger crops in Russia and the United States as well as quality problems in EU.  India exports are lowered 0.5 million tons because of competition, especially from lower quality wheat in Ukraine and southeastern EU.  China and Russia imports are lowered 1.0 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively, because of increased production.  Egypt imports are lowered 0.5 million tons due to changes in its bread subsidy program that are expected to reduce waste.  Iran imports are raised 0.5 million tons reflecting government announced purchases.  With supplies rising faster than use, global ending stocks are raised 3.4 million tons and remain at a 3-year high.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: 
The forecast for total meat production in 2014 is raised from last month.  Production is raised for beef, pork, and broilers as lower feed prices encourage producers to raise animals to heavier weights.  Turkey production is reduced slightly based on June production data.  Egg production is reduced based on lower expected hatching egg production.  For 2015, lower feed costs are expected to lead to higher cattle, hog, and broiler weights, but in the case of beef, reduced feedlot numbers are expected to lead to lower slaughter, more than offsetting any gains from carcass weights.  Broiler producers are also expected to increase bird numbers more rapidly than previously forecast during 2015 as returns are expected to be more favorable.  Egg production forecasts are unchanged. 

Forecasts for 2014 and 2015 beef imports are raised as demand for processing grade beef remains strong.  Exports for 2014 and 2015 are raised as demand in a number of countries remains strong, despite high beef prices.  Pork imports for 2014 and 2015 are raised slightly.  Despite the closure of Russia to U.S. exports into 2015, pork export forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are raised as demand in other major markets is expected to grow.  Broiler exports are reduced for 2014 and 2015 as Russia’s import ban will affect sales.  Turkey export forecasts are raised for 2014, but are unchanged for 2015.   

Cattle price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are raised from last month on the strength of demand and continued tight supplies of fed cattle.  The annual price forecast for hogs is unchanged for 2014, but is lowered for 2015 from last month on slightly weaker expected demand.  The annual broiler price forecast for 2014 is lowered, but the price for 2015 is unchanged.  The turkey price forecast for 2014 is raised based on July price data.  The egg price forecasts for both 2014 and 2015 are raised as demand remains strong.  

The milk production forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are raised slightly as lower feed costs are expected to support higher output per cow.  Fat basis export forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are lowered as Russia’s ban on imports from a number of dairy exporting countries will likely increase competition in export markets.  Fat basis imports are raised as supplies in competing exporters are expected to be large.  The skim-solids export forecast is raised slightly for 2014, but is reduced in 2015 as competition increases.  Skim-solids imports are unchanged from last month. 

Butter prices and whey price forecasts are raised for 2014 with strength in butter prices expected to carry into 2015.  Cheese prices and nonfat dry milk prices are forecast higher in 2014, but their price forecasts for 2015 are unchanged from last month.  Class III and Class IV prices for 2014 are raised on stronger component product prices and the Class III price forecast for 2015 is raised reflecting strength in whey prices.  The all milk price is raised to $23.55 to $23.75 per cwt for 2014, but remains unchanged at $19.75 to $20.75 per cwt for 2015.