USDA Crop Produciton + Supply and Demand Reports - October 10, 2014

NEBRASKA CROP PRODUCTION REPORT

Based on October 1 conditions, Nebraska's 2014 corn crop is forecast at 1.58 billion bushels, down 2 percent from last year’s record high, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural  Statistics Service.   Acreage  harvested  for  grain  is  estimated  at 8.75 million acres, down 8 percent from a year ago.   Average yield  is forecast at a record high 181 bushels per acre, up 11 bushels from last year.
 
Soybean  production  in Nebraska  is  forecast  at  a  record  high  284 million  bushels,  11  percent above last year.  Area for harvest, at a record high 5.35 million acres, is up 12 percent from 2013.  Yield is forecast at 53 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from a year ago.

Sorghum production of 9.24 million bushels is down 1 percent from a year ago.  Area for grain harvest of 120,000 acres  is down 14 percent from  last year.   Yield  is forecast at 77 bushels per acre, up 10 bushels from last year.  

Dry  Edible  Bean  production  is  forecast  at  3.88 million  hundredweight,  up  41  percent  from 2013.  Area for harvest, at 152,000 acres, is up 30 percent from last year.  Yield is estimated at 2,550 pounds per acre, up 200 pounds per acre from that of a year ago.

Sugarbeet production is forecast at 1.36 million tons, up 4 percent from 2013.  Area for harvest, at 46,000 acres,  is up 4 percent  from  last year.   Yield  is estimated at 29.6  tons per acre, down slightly from the 29.7 tons of a year ago.

All  Sunflower  production  is  forecast  at  35.2  million  pounds,  up  2  percent  from  last  year.  Acreage  for  harvest,  at  32,000  acres,  is  down  6,500  acres  from  2013.    Yield  is  forecast  at  1100 pounds per acre, up nearly 200 pounds per acre from a year ago.  Of the acres for harvest, non-oil sunflowers account for 9,000 acres and oil sunflowers account for 23,000 acres.

Alfalfa  hay  production,  at  3.02 million  tons,  is  up  25  percent  from  the  2013  crop.   Area  for harvest, at 720,000 acres,  is up 3 percent  from a year ago.   Yield at a  record high 4.2  tons per acre,  is  up  0.75  ton  from  2013.    All  Other  Hay  production,  at  2.15  million  tons,  is  down  15 percent from 2013.  Area for harvest, at 1.65 million acres, is down 8 percent from a year ago. Yield of 1.3 tons per acre, is down 0.1 ton from last year.  



Iowa Crop Production Estimate

Iowa’s corn production is forecast at a record 2.44 billion bushels, 13 percent above  last year’s production according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Crop Production report. As of October 1, Iowa’s corn crop is forecast  to  yield  a  record  185  bushels  per  acre,  20  bushels  higher  than  in  2013  but  unchanged  from  the September  1 forecast. If realized, the yield will be 3 bushels higher than the previous high set in 2009. Corn planted and harvested for grain acreage is estimated at 13.6 million and 13.2 million acres, respectively. 

Forecasted production and yield  is up  from 2013  in all  Iowa districts. Three districts are  forecast  to have  record yields, and all remaining districts are in the top four highest yielding years. Central and South East Iowa are anticipated to have the highest yields in the state, with 195 bushels per acre. West Central Iowa is anticipated to have the largest production in the state, with 385 million bushels. 

Soybean production is forecast at 504 million bushels, a 20 percent increase from the previous year. The October 1 yield forecast  of  51.0  bushels  per  acre  is  up  5.5  bushels  from  2013,  but  unchanged  from  the  September  forecast.  Soybean planted acreage  is estimated at 9.95 million acres with 9.89 million acres  to be harvested.   Both planted and harvested acres are down 1 percent from the September forecast.

Production and yield  is  forecast  to be up  in all  Iowa districts. Northwest  Iowa  is expected  to have  the highest average yield, at 53.5 bushels per acre, followed by West Central Iowa at 53.0 bushels. Northwest Iowa is anticipated to have the largest production, with 83.7 million bushels. 

Production of alfalfa and alfalfa mixture dry hay  is forecast at 2.48 million  tons, up 3 percent from  the previous year.   Yield  is  expected  to  average  3.40  tons  per  acre,  up  0.10  ton  from  last  year. Harvested  area  is  forecast  at 730,000 acres, unchanged from 2013. 

Production of other hay is forecast at 770,000 tons, down 20 percent from last year.  Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 2.20 tons per acre.  Harvested area is forecast at 350,000 acres, down 20 percent from 2013.  

All crop forecasts in this report are based on October 1 conditions and do not reflect weather effects since that time. The  next  corn  and  soybean  production  forecasts,  based  on  conditions  as  of  November  1,  will  be  released  on November 10.



USDA:  Corn Production Up Less Than 1 Percent from September Forecast
Soybean Production Up Slightly
Cotton Production Down 2 Percent

Corn production is forecast at 14.5 billion bushels, up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 4 percent from 2013. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 174.2 bushels per acre, up 2.5 bushels from the September forecast and 15.4 bushels above the 2013 average. If realized, this will be the highest yield and production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.1 million acres, down 1 percent from the September forecast and down 5 percent from 2013. Acreage updates were made in several States following a thorough review of all available data.

Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.93 billion bushels, up slightly from September and up 17 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average a record high 47.1 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from last month and up 3.1 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at a record 83.4 million acres, down less than 1 percent from September but up 9 percent from last year. Acreage updates were made in several States based on a thorough review of all available data.

All cotton production is forecast at 16.3 million 480-pound bales, down 2 percent from last month but up 26 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 790 pounds per harvested acre, down 31 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 15.7 million 480-pound bales, up 28 percent from 2013. Pima cotton production, forecast at 578,000 bales, was carried forward from last month.



USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates - Oct 10, 2014

WHEAT:  Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2014/15 are lowered 44 million bushels as increased production is more than offset by higher feed and residual disappearance and higher exports.  Production for 2014/15 is raised 5 million bushels based on the latest estimate from the September 30 Small Grains 2014 Summary.  Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat and Hard Red Winter wheat are raised 32 million bushels and 9 million bushels, respectively.  Reductions in the other three classes are partially offsetting.  Projected feed and residual use is raised 25 million bushels reflecting the September 1 stocks that indicated higher-than-expected June-August disappearance. Projected exports are raised 25 million bushels on higher-than-expected sales for HRS and Soft Red Winter wheat.  The projected range for the 2014/15 season-average farm price is narrowed 5 cents on both the high and low end to $5.55 to $6.25 per bushel.  

Global 2014/15 wheat supplies are raised 0.3 million tons with increased production offsetting lower beginning stocks.  World production is raised 1.2 million tons led by a 3.0-million-ton increase for EU and 0.5-million-ton increases for both Pakistan and Ukraine.  Decreases are led by a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Kazakhstan, a 0.8-million-ton reduction for Algeria, 0.5-million-ton reductions for both Australia and Canada, and a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Argentina.  Changes for Northern Hemisphere countries reflect updated harvest reports and government statistics.  For the Southern Hemisphere, Australia is lowered on continued dryness in portions of the southeast, and Argentina is lowered on wet conditions that have limited planting.  

Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is raised 4.1 million tons to a record 714.1 million reflecting both higher food and feed use.  Global wheat trade is raised with exports up 1.2 million tons to 156.0 million.  The largest increase is 2.0 million tons for EU due to the larger crop.  Mexico exports are raised 0.5 million tons on large durum supplies and strong international demand.  Offsetting decreases are made for Kazakhstan (down 1.0 million tons), Australia (down 0.5 million tons), and Argentina (down 0.3 million tons) on smaller crops.  Projected consumption rises faster than supplies lowering global ending stocks 3.8 million tons to 192.6 million.   

COARSE GRAINS:  Projected 2014/15 U.S. feed grain production is raised this month as higher forecast corn production more than offsets a reduction for sorghum and the lower estimates for barley and oats from the Small Grains 2014 Summary.  Corn production is forecast 80 million bushels higher at a record 14,475 million bushels as lower reported area is more than offset by a 2.5-bushel-per-acre increase in the yield.  Corn supplies for 2014/15 are projected at 15,736 million bushels, up 129 million from last month reflecting both higher production and a 55-million-bushel increase in beginning stocks from the September Grain Stocks report.  Projected imports are lowered 5 million bushels with tighter corn supplies in Canada.

Projected U.S. corn use for 2014/15 is raised 50 million bushels on higher expected feed and residual disappearance driven by the larger crop, higher projected meat production, and the lower price outlook.  Corn ending stocks are raised 79 million bushels to 2,081 million.  The projected range for the season-average farm price is lowered 10 cents on each end to $3.10 to $3.70 per bushel.

Projected sorghum supplies for 2014/15 are lowered 12 million bushels as a 26-million-bushel reduction in forecast production more than outweighs higher beginning stocks as reported in the Grain Stocks report.  Exports are projected 20 million bushels higher on strong demand from China.  Domestic use is projected 40 million bushels lower as export demand makes sorghum less competitive in ethanol production and for domestic feeding.  The sorghum season-average farm price range is projected 5 cents lower on each end to $2.95 to $3.55 per bushel.  The 2014/15 season-average farm prices for barley and oats are raised based on prices reported to date and the tighter supply situation projected for both this month.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 3.0 million tons higher with a small reduction in beginning stocks more than offset by a 3.2-million-ton increase in world production.  Global corn production is raised 3.2 million tons with increases for EU and the United States partly offset by reductions for FSU.  EU corn production is raised 2.7 million tons with increases in a number of countries based on the latest data and harvest results.  Corn production is lowered 1.0 million tons for Ukraine and 0.5 million tons each for Belarus and Russia, also on the latest harvest results, which reflect the impact of hot, dry, late summer growing conditions.  Global barley production is higher with increases for EU and FSU offsetting a reduction for Australia.  EU mixed grain increases add to world coarse grain supplies.  Foreign sorghum and millet production are lowered with reductions for India and several Sub-Saharan Africa countries.  

Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is raised slightly, mostly due to increased corn use in the United States.  Corn feed use is also increased for Egypt and Iran with higher imports this month.  Sorghum feed use is raised for China, also with higher imports.  Global sorghum consumption, however, declines with lower production and food use for Sub-Saharan Africa and lower U.S. domestic use.  Barley consumption is raised with higher feed use in China and EU.  Global corn trade is lowered this month, mostly reflecting a 3.0-million-ton reduction in expected imports by EU.  Exports are lowered for Canada and Russia.  Global corn ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected 0.7 million tons higher with larger stocks in the United States.

OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 116.3 million tons, up 0.1 million from last month.  Soybean production is forecast at a record 3,927 million bushels, up 14 million with improved yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area.  The soybean yield is projected at 47.1 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushels from September.  Harvested area is reduced 0.7 million acres to 83.4 million.  Soybean supplies for 2014/15 are projected 24 million bushels below last month with lower beginning stocks from the Grain Stocks report more than offsetting increased production.  Canola, sunflower, and cottonseed production are forecast lower this month while peanut production is forecast slightly higher.  

U.S. soybean exports and crush for 2014/15 are unchanged this month.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 450 million bushels, down 25 million on reduced supplies.  Prices for soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal are unchanged.

Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 528.4 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month as higher soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production more than offset reduced sunflowerseed and rapeseed production.  Global soybean production is projected at 311.2 million tons, up 0.1 million.  Small reductions in soybean production for China and Russia partly offset increases for the United States and EU.  Rapeseed production is reduced for Canada based on lower yields reported in the most recent survey from Statistics Canada.  Rapeseed production is increased to a record 23.5 million tons for EU.  Global sunflowerseed production is reduced on lower estimates for both Argentina and Russia.  Other changes include increased cottonseed production for China, India, and Pakistan.

Global oilseed stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 103.6 million, a 29 percent increase from 2013/14.  Oilseed stocks are virtually unchanged from last month as lower rapeseed stocks in Canada offset an increase in soybean stocks.  Higher soybean stocks in Argentina offset a reduction in the United States.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: 
The forecasts for total meat production in 2014 and 2015 are raised from last month.  For both 2014 and 2015, the increase in beef production is driven by heavier carcass weights as lower corn prices encourage producers to market heavier cattle.  Pork production in 2014 is reduced from last month as slower gains in carcass weights in the second half of the year more than offset higher expected fourth-quarter slaughter.  For 2015, the production forecast is raised.  USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated that the decline in third-quarter pigs per litter was less than during the first half of the year.  With higher indicated farrowing intentions for the last quarter of 2014 and into 2015, and slightly more rapid forecast recovery in pigs per liter, it is expected that a greater number of hogs will be available for slaughter during 2015.  Increased pork production will also be supported by higher carcass weights.  Broiler productions for 2014 is unchanged, but lower forecast feed costs are expected to encourage more rapid production growth in 2015.  Turkey production for 2014 is slightly higher based on production data to date; however, the production forecast for 2015 is unchanged.  Egg production is raised for both 2014 and 2015, reflecting revisions to table egg production estimates.  

Forecasts for 2014 and 2015 beef imports are unchanged from last month.  Beef exports for 2014 are lowered based on recent trade data, but the forecast for 2015 is unchanged.  Pork imports are unchanged for 2014, but are reduced for 2015 as U.S. production is forecast higher and prices lower.  Pork exports are forecast higher on strong demand in 2014 and more competitive prices in 2015.  Broiler exports are raised for 2014 on current strength of demand, but the 2015 forecast is unchanged.  Turkey export forecasts are raised for 2014 and 2015.   

The cattle price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged from last month.  The hog price forecast for 2014 is unchanged, but the 2015 price is lowered on larger supplies.  The broiler price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are raised on robust demand.  The turkey price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged.  The egg price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged.  

The milk production forecast for 2014 is reduced from last month on slower growth in milk per cow.  However, for 2015, the production forecast is raised as growth in output per cow is expected higher with relatively lower-priced feed.  Export forecasts for 2014 are lowered as U.S. dairy prices are less competitive, but import forecasts are raised as relatively high U.S. prices encourage larger imports. The trade forecasts for 2015 are unchanged. 

Butter, cheese, and whey prices for 2014 are raised from last month as domestic demand continues to support prices.  Prices of these products are unchanged for 2015.  However, the nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts for both 2014 and 2015 are reduced as U.S. prices are expected to decline to increase the competitiveness of NDM exports.  The Class III price for 2014 is raised on stronger cheese and whey prices, but is unchanged for 2015.  The Class IV price is raised for 2014 as higher butter prices more than offset the decline in NDM prices, but for 2015, the lower forecast NDM price results in a lower Class IV price.  The all milk price is raised to $24.10 to $24.20 per cwt for 2014, and is lowered for 2015 to $18.95 to $19.85 per cwt.