Tuesday March 10 Ag News

NDA DIRECTOR IBACH PROMOTING NEBRASKA AG GOODS IN EMERGING SOUTHEAST ASIA MARKETS

Nebraska Department of Agriculture (NDA) Director Greg Ibach is inSoutheast Asia this week promoting Nebraska agricultural products in Kuala Lumpur,Malaysia, and Manila, Philippines. While in Kuala Lumpur, Ibach also will have theopportunity to meet with potential customers from Burma and Thailand.

Ibach is traveling as part of a delegation led by United States Department of Agriculture(USDA) Under Secretary Michael Scuse. Mark McHargue, first vice president of theNebraska Farm Bureau, and Stan Garbacz, NDA’s international trade representative,also are representing Nebraska on the trip. The delegation includes representativesfrom six state agriculture agencies (Nebraska, Idaho, Iowa, North Dakota, Texas andVirginia) and 21 agribusinesses and organizations.

According to Ibach, agricultural exports into the area have been on the rise recently withU.S. exports of food and agricultural products to the four countries doubling over thepast five years, from $2.7 billion in 2009 to $5.4 billion in 2014.

“I am pleased Under Secretary Scuse invited Nebraska to participate in this importanttrade mission. There is a tremendous opportunity for our agricultural exports tocontinue to grow in Southeast Asia, and I hope to be able to forge relationships andopen the door to future trade deals for Nebraska while I am here,” said Ibach.

In the past five years, the market for Nebraska beef entering the Philippines has grownfrom $905,000 to $7.9 million. Beef also has experienced growth in Thailand from$33,000 to $973,000 in that same time frame. Dry edible beans have experiencedgrowth in the Malaysia market, jumping from $744,000 to $2.2 million between 2009and 2014.

“I am proud to join Director Ibach as we work to build relationships with our friends inSoutheast Asia. Nebraska’s farmers and ranchers have a reputation around the worldfor high quality products, and I believe the outreach in Asia will help us develop moretrade opportunities for Nebraska producers,” said McHargue.



RICKETTS, AG GROUPS SUPPORT FEDERAL TRADE PROMOTION AUTHORITY

Nebraska Governor Pete Ricketts and Agriculture Director Greg Ibach were joined last week by farmers and ranchers representing a cross-section of Nebraska agriculture to urge federal leaders for approval of Presidential Trade Promotion Authority (TPA).

In a letter sent to U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker John Boehner, the Governor, Director and leaders representing 22 Nebraska agriculture organizations pointed out the importance of international trade to Nebraska’s economy. The letter cited the $7.3 billion in products the state exported in 2013 and noted much of those exports were tied to agriculture and the processing sector tied to it.

“TPA is a critical tool in successful negotiation of trade agreements, including two pending multi-country trade agreements,” said Governor Ricketts. “Both the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreements hold enormous potential for the continued growth of Nebraska agricultural exports.”

Director Ibach said passage of TPP and TTIP would lower tariffs on Nebraska agricultural goods, making the state’s products even more competitive with other nations active in those markets.

“It is my understanding that TPA is important to bringing those agreements to fruition,” Ibach said.

TPA gives the President the authority to negotiate international trade agreements that Congress can approve or disapprove, but cannot amend or filibuster.

In total, 27 agriculture organization leaders signed the letter authored by Governor Ricketts in show of support of his call for TPA. The group included farmers and ranchers who produce livestock, grain, dairy and specialty crops. The letter was signed during the 27th annual Governor’s Ag Conference in Kearney.



Cuming County 4-H Beef Preview

The 41st annual Cuming County 4-H Beef Preview will be held Saturday, April 18 at the Cuming County Fairgrounds in West Point.  The show gives 4-H youth a chance to exhibit the progress of their beef projects.  The show is sponsored by the Cuming County Livestock Feeders Association and Nebraska Extension in Cuming County.

According to Extension Educator, Larry Howard, events at the preview show will include showmanship, breeding heifers, market heifers and market steers.  Breeding classes will include Angus, Charolais, Chianina, Gelbvieh, Hereford, Limousin, Maine Anjou, Shorthorn and Simmental.  There is also a class for commercial breeding heifers.

Dane Miller from Lincoln NE will be the judge of the show. 

All projects must weigh-in and check-in on Saturday from 7:30-8:30 a.m.  The show will begin at 10:00 a.m. on Saturday, April 18.

The show is open to 4-H members from Cuming, Burt, Colfax, Dakota, Dodge, Stanton, Thurston, Washington, Wayne, Douglas and Sarpy counties.

For additional information, contact the Cuming County Extension office at 402-372-6006.



Platte Valley Cattlemen Meeting is March 16th
Jarad Drinnin, President, Platte Valley Cattlemen

After the bitterly cold temperatures we have been experiencing, spring will be a welcome time. As  calving season kicks off for some of us, we will sure welcome the warmer temps that are in the
forecast.

Our March meeting will be on Monday, March 1 6th, at Wunderlich’s Catering in Columbus. The topic for the evening will be presented by Dean Settje of Settje Agri-Services & Engineering, Inc. Dean will discuss the nutrient management updates along with manure marketing.

Social hour will begin at 6:00 p.m. and is being sponsored by Settje Agri-Services & Engineering, Inc. The meal will be at 7:00 p.m.,  sponsored by Elanco Animal Health.

Hope to see everyone March 16th!



Fischer to Chair EPW Field Hearing on WOTUS

U.S. Senator Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) will chair a hearing of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee in Lincoln, Nebraska on Saturday, March 14, 2015, at 10:00 a.m. CST.  Location:  Hardin Hall, Room 107, 3310 Holdrege Street, University of Nebraska, East Campus, Lincoln, NE.  The hearing will focus on the impact of the proposed Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule, which would expand federal regulation of water in Nebraska.

The hearing will examine the views of a diverse group of stakeholders, including representatives from the agriculture community, homebuilders, natural resource districts, and state and local governments. In the spring of 2014, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Army Corps of Engineers released a proposal to change the definition of WOTUS under the Clean Water Act. The rule would broaden the definition beyond “navigable” waters and extend the federal government’s regulatory reach over almost any body of water, from farm ditches to residential ponds.

WITNESSES:
Justin Lavene, Nebraska Attorney General’s Office
Barbara Cooksley, President-Elect, Nebraska Cattlemen
Don Wisnieski, President, Nebraska State Home Builders Association
Don Blankenau, On behalf of the Nebraska Association of Resource Districts and the League of Nebraska Municipalities
Mary Ann Borgeson, Chairwoman, Douglas County Commission, and Board Member, Nebraska Association of County Officials
John Crabtree, Center for Rural Affairs
Wesley Sheets, Izaak Walton League of America

Senator Fischer has led a number of efforts in the Senate to enhance public input on the rule. She has repeatedly urged EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy to scrap the rule all together and has also cosponsored legislation to withdraw the proposed regulation.



Featured Presentation Scheduled for Nebraska Ethanol Board Meeting

Ron Lamberty, American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE) senior vice president, is the featured presenter at the Nebraska Ethanol Board meeting Thursday, March 19.

The industry veteran will discuss ways fuel retailers can market E15 (15 percent ethanol and 85 percent unleaded gasoline) and the benefits E15 has on pollution mitigation efforts in metro areas.

Lamberty specializes in providing logistical and marketing expertise to petroleum marketers who want to begin selling ethanol-enriched gasoline, as well as those who already sell ethanol and are trying to find a way to improve sales of the product.

During the first 20 years of his career, Lamberty worked in the convenience store and petroleum wholesale distributing business, and has a long history as a marketer and supporter of ethanol. He continues to be involved in the petroleum industry and owns and operates two convenience stores.

Lamberty joined ACE as market development director in September 2000, and was named vice president in November 2003 and senior vice president in June 2011.

The Nebraska Ethanol Board meeting will be held at Hyatt Place in Lincoln at 8:30 a.m. Lamberty will speak at approximately 8:45 a.m.



GRASSES TO PLANT IN IRRIGATED PASTURES
Bruce Anderson, UNL Extension Forage Specialist

               High pasture rents and marginal returns from irrigated corn are causing many folks to consider irrigated pasture to solve both problems.  Are you one of them?

                Irrigated pastures can produce very high yields for high quality grazing.  But profits from these pastures don’t just happen.  Good planning and high management is needed.

               Part of your success depends on planting the best adapted grasses.  Plant at least three grasses in a mixture rather than a single species in irrigated pastures. No single plant is best adapted to all situations, so mixtures help maximize your pasture potential.

               Many grasses can be used, but one of the best is orchardgrass.  It regrows fast after proper grazing and grows better in summer than most cool-season grasses.  However, it does thin out over time.  Smooth brome works well with orchardgrass.  It’s long lived and can spread into areas as orchardgrass plants die.  But, it’s summer growth is poor.

               Another excellent choice is meadow brome.  It is similar to orchardgrass but is more winterhardy and starts spring growth earlier.  I also like to use creeping foxtail if there are any wet or poorly drained areas in the field because it grows best in these sites.

               Tall fescue and festulolium are becoming more popular for irrigated pastures due to their durability and good summer growth.

               Other grasses, like intermediate wheatgrass, perennial ryegrass, and reed canarygrass, also are suitable for irrigated pasture in special situations.  Even big bluestem, switchgrass, and indiangrass work well when the water supply is limited.  See your local extension office for more information.

               Irrigated pastures can be highly productive and profitable.  Start by planting the best grasses available.



USDA Reminds Nebraska Producers of March 16 NAP Deadline

Farm Service Agency (FSA) urges producers who want to purchase coverage through the Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program (NAP) to do so before the sales closing date of March 16.

NAP provides financial assistance to producers of noninsurable crops when low yields/grazing loss, loss of inventory or prevented planting occur due to natural disasters including drought, freeze, hail, excessive moisture, excessive wind or hurricanes.

In order to meet eligibility requirements for NAP, crops must be noninsurable, commercially-produced agricultural commodity crops for which the catastrophic risk protection level of crop insurance is not available.

FSA policy has changed - for the 2015 crop year, producers in Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Texas who annually plant crops used for mechanically harvested livestock feed, can purchase both NAP coverage at the catastrophic level or higher ("buy-up") and Rainfall Index -- Annual Forage Insurance plan coverage offered through Risk Management Agency (RMA); however if a NAP payment and indemnity benefit are payable, the producer must choose. The producer cannot receive benefits under both.

The Agricultural Act of 2014 (the 2014 Farm Bill) allows producers to choose higher levels of NAP coverage. Previously, the program offered coverage at 55 percent of the average market price for crop losses that exceed 50 percent of expected production. Producers can now choose higher levels of coverage, up to 65 percent of their expected production at 100 percent of the average market price. It is important to note that the higher coverage is not available on grazing crops.

The following crops in Nebraska have a NAP application closing date of March 16: Alfalfa, Spring Seeded Small Grains, Spring Planted Vegetables, Teff Grass, and Spring Planted Fruit

Eligible producers must file the application and pay a service fee by the March 16 deadline. Producers also pay a fixed premium for higher coverage. Beginning, limited resource and underserved producers may request a waiver of the service fee and a 50 percent premium reduction when the application for coverage is filed.



Farm, water quality stakeholders unified in opposition to Des Moines Water Works lawsuit
Joint statement from:  Agribusiness Association of Iowa, Agriculture’s Clean Water Alliance, Iowa Agriculture Water Alliance, Iowa Cattlemen’s Association, Iowa Corn Growers Association, Iowa Farm Bureau Federation, Iowa Pork Producers Association, Iowa Poultry Association, Iowa Soybean Association, Iowa State Dairy Association and Iowa Turkey Federation.

The announcement by Des Moines Water Works (DMWW) to pursue legal action against drainage districts in three Iowa counties reveals a startling disconnect from the scope and complexity of nonpoint water issues. It risks slowing the momentum of the nationally recognized Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy implemented with bipartisan legislative support in 2013.

Nitrate levels in Iowa rivers are complex, fluctuating with weather and soil fertility but not significantly affected by fertilizer application rates or management. Our weather and nutrient-rich soils, which are ideal for growing plants, dominantly influence what happens in Iowa’s waters.

Merely enacting regulation will do nothing to improve water quality. We will remain focused on empowering farmers and land owners to select and use scientifically proven practices that can have a real impact on water quality, which benefits all Iowans.

Today's decision undermines the strong relationship that once existed between Iowa’s largest water utility and farmers upstream. However, the DMWW litigation will not distract us from collaborative efforts that bring continual improvements in water quality.



Port Congestion, Economic Headwinds Slow January Meat Exports
January exports of U.S. beef, pork and lamb were down sharply from a year ago, according to data released by USDA and compiled by USMEF. Shipping delays caused by the West Coast labor dispute combined with a number of economic factors to drive export volumes for beef and pork to four-year lows. However, USMEF President and CEO Philip Seng noted that the situations facing U.S. beef and pork are quite different. Global beef supplies are extremely tight again this year, while pork supplies are increasing and competition in major pork export markets continues to intensify.

“We expected January to be a difficult month, so these results are not especially surprising,” Seng said, “but I see the January slowdown as a wakeup call for the U.S. industry in terms of the fiercely competitive situation we face in key markets. Conditions are now improving in the West Coast ports, but the damage caused by that impasse is still not finished, and it is clear that competitors capitalized on our inability to move product in a timely fashion. We need to win back the confidence of the valuable Asian customer base we spent many years building.”

While port congestion was certainly a major factor in the sluggish January results, Seng noted that a number of other headwinds also had an impact.

“The currencies of several of our major destinations have weakened substantially against the U.S. dollar – not only in Asia, but also in the Western Hemisphere,” he said. “And unfortunately the currencies of our major competitors – Australia, the European Union, Brazil and Canada, to name a few – are also in a weakened state. We saw this building throughout the latter half of 2014, and the price disadvantage is increasingly difficult to overcome.”

January was the first month in which beef tariff reductions were in effect under the Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement (JAEPA), with further reductions coming in April. Though an agreement has not yet been reached, Japan recently completed the ninth round of its economic partnership talks with the EU and is expected eventually to sign an agreement that will reduce tariffs on European pork. South Korea’s new trade agreements with Australia and Canada have also narrowed the tariff rate advantage the United States holds over imports from these two countries.

Bright spots for U.S. beef include Mexico, Taiwan, Caribbean
January beef exports of 79,899 mt were down 18 percent with value of $503.57 million, down 2 percent. Exports to leading market Mexico were not impacted by the port congestion, and smaller muscle cut volumes were offset by growth in variety meats, putting total volume (20,213 mt) even with last year while value increased 12 percent to $105.1 million. But exports to Japan totaled 13,810 metric tons (mt), down 12 percent and the smallest since the eligible cattle age limit was increased from 21 months to 30 months in February 2013. Export value to Japan was $91.5 million, down 1 percent. Chilled exports to Japan (4,314 mt, -39 percent) were hit particularly hard by the West Coast port congestion, as shelf-life concerns made buyers reluctant to place chilled orders. But U.S. beef also faces a tariff disadvantage under the JAEPA of 6 percentage points on chilled beef and 8 percentage points on frozen. This will widen to 7 and 10 percentage points respectively in April, and the gap will continue to grow as long as U.S. beef is subject to Japan’s full 38.5 percent duty. Australia’s exports to Japan increased 6 percent in the first two months of the year.

Exports to South Korea and Hong Kong, which were coming off big performances in 2014, were also the lowest in nearly two years. Export volume to Korea was down 28 percent to 7,073 mt, while value declined 17 percent to $57.5 million. For Hong Kong, value fell by one-third to 8,627 mt and volume was down 14 percent to $69.8 million. Taiwan was the only major Asian destination to hold up well through the port crisis, as January export volume to Taiwan was slightly higher year-over-year (2,134 mt, +1 percent) and value increased 37 percent to $23.4 million.

Exports to the Dominican Republic tripled in volume to 463 mt and increased 130 percent in value to $3.2 million, while results for the whole Caribbean region were up 13 percent in volume (1,764 mt) and 23 percent in value ($12.1 million). Led by strong variety meat volumes, exports to Peru increased 50 percent (1,115 mt) with value up 19 percent ($2.17 million).

Beef export value averaged $271 per head of fed slaughter, up $20.26 from last year, reflecting the decrease in slaughter numbers and high U.S. prices. January exports equaled 9 percent of total beef muscle cut production and just under 12 percent when including variety meats (down from 10 percent and 13 percent, respectively, in January 2014.)

Pork exports higher to Korea, steady for Mexico
January pork exports were down 16 percent to 161,165 mt, valued at $455.3 million, down 15 percent. For muscle cuts only, exports fell 20 percent in volume (119,455 mt) and 18 percent in value ($374.5 million). Exports to leading volume market Mexico were down only slightly from a year ago (59,306 mt, -1 percent), while value was steady at $112.8 million. Exports to Korea posted strong increases in both volume (15,262 mt, +34 percent) and value ($51.4 million, +54 percent). The Dominican Republic also took more U.S. pork (1,463 mt, up 28 percent). Pork variety meat exports to Taiwan doubled from last year’s low levels, pushing total exports to Taiwan up 28 percent to 1,007 mt.

The good news for U.S. pork ended there, however, as exports to other major destinations were down across the board. The port crisis was particularly hard on chilled exports to Japan (14,465 mt, -22 percent), but excluding variety meat, total exports to Japan had already fallen below 30,000 mt per month in four out of the past five months as European product continued to gain market share. January’s combined chilled/frozen exports to Japan were 26,493 mt, down 25 percent. Europe also dominated in China/Hong Kong, where U.S. exports — 17,681 mt, down 49 percent and the smallest in nearly five years — were greatly impacted by market access issues and China’s sluggish domestic pork prices. Exports to Australia slowed in the second half of 2014 and remained weak in January (2,598 mt, -59 percent) as the EU and Canada gained market share. Even Colombia, where pork exports have climbed steadily over the past three years, saw a significant year-over-year decline in January (3,688 mt, -22 percent), although this was in comparison to record exports in January 2014.

“In Japan and several other Asian destinations, a huge influx of low-priced European pork has poured onto the market since the EU pork industry lost access to Russia,” Seng said. “Combine this with the West Coast port impasse and the euro at an 11-year low versus the U.S. dollar, and January was something of a perfect storm for U.S. pork. EU pork is not likely to re-enter Russia anytime soon, so competition from European suppliers will remain intense – especially in our key Asian markets. It is therefore imperative that the U.S. industry meets this challenge in order for our exports to rebound from this rough beginning to the year.”

Russia has historically been the largest market for pork exports from the EU, but the market closed in late January 2014 due to findings of African swine fever. Russia also banned imports of most pork products from the EU, the U.S. and Canada in August, under an embargo related to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Last week the European Commission launched an aid program designed to help the pork industry withstand price declines stemming from the trade impasse with Russia. The August ban also had a significant impact on Canada’s pork exports, as Canada has been shipping more pork to the U.S. and Mexico after losing its third-largest market.

Pork export value averaged $46.45 per head slaughtered in January, down $8.05 from last year. Exports equaled 17 percent of muscle cut production and 23 percent when including variety meats (down from 21 percent and 25.5 percent, respectively, last year).

Lamb exports also slow in January
U.S. lamb exports also got off to a slow start in 2015, with volume down 32 percent to 719 mt and value falling 35 percent to $1.7 million. Gains were posted in emerging markets such as the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam and Guatemala, but did not offset sharp declines to Mexico and Canada.



Supply and Demand Estimate Shows USDA Recognition of Increasing Efficiency in Ethanol Industry

The amount of corn necessary to make a gallon of ethanol is less than previously believed according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture report released today. In lowering the projected demand by the ethanol market for U.S. corn by 50 million bushels, the agency cited "a higher rate of conversion than previously assumed" as the reasoning for the adjustment. The information upon which this analysis was based came from the National Agricultural Statistics Service's new Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report.

"What is most remarkable about this supply and demand report is the light it sheds on a topic of great concern to U.S. corn farmers- recognition of the growing efficiencies in the ethanol industry," said National Corn Growers Association President Chip Bowling, a Maryland corn farmer. "For many years, we have strongly asserted that the ethanol industry continues to improve and those productivity gains should be taken into consideration. With the simple justification offered for the analysis, USDA made a great step forward in showing its growing appreciation for the advances made in ethanol production and, thus, the ever-increasing benefit it offers Americans."

While USDA estimates for corn use in ethanol production were lowered by 50 million bushels, the overall drop was partially offset by higher than expected production over the winter months. The demand decline was more than offset by projected increases in demand for corn from the export and feed and residuals markets of 50 million bushels each.

Projected ending stocks were lowered by 50 million bushels in light of the other adjustments. Average farm price estimates were raised by five cents at the midpoint to $3.50 to $3.90 per bushel.



World Ag Supply and Demand Report - March 10, 2015

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected lower with reductions for corn and barley. Corn use in ethanol production is projected 50 million bushels lower based on the new Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report recently releasedby the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Reported corn use for ethanol for October through January implies a higher conversion rate than previously assumed. Partly offsetting the impact of the higher conversion rate is higher-than-expected December ethanol production and a stronger-than-expected pace of weekly production through February asreported by the Energy Information Administration. The reduction in corn use for ethanol is offset by a 50-million-bushel increase in projected feed and residual use. Thus, expected total domestic disappearance is unchanged. Corn exports are projected 50 million bushels higher based on commitments to date and higher projected global demand. Projected ending stocks are lowered 50 million bushels. The season-average farm price for corn is projected at $3.50to $3.90 per bushel, up 5 cents at the midpoint.Revisions to estimated 2014/15 first-quarter (September-November) corn use in ethanol production, based on the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production data for October and November, will be detailed in the March 12 Feed Outlook available from the Economic Research Service at www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/corn.aspx.

U.S. barley ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected 4 million bushels lower with imports lowered 2 million bushels and exports raised 2 million bushels based on the pace of shipments to date. The projected barley farm price range is narrowed and raised 10 cents at the mid point to $5.20 to $5.50 per bushel. The sorghum farm price projection is also narrowed and raised10 cents at the midpoint to $3.70 to $4.10 per bushel. Both increases reflect farm prices reported through January.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 2.4 million tons lower mostly on reduced corn beginning stocks and production for South Africa. Upward revisions to 2005/06through 2009/10 South Africa corn consumption lower estimated stocks over the last decade and cause a 2.2-million-ton reduction in 2014/15 beginning stocks. A 1.0-million-ton increase in Brazil beginning stocks is partly offsetting with 2013/14 production raised 0.5 million tons and exports lowered 0.5 million tons. Argentina corn exports are raised 0.5 million tons for2013/14.

Global corn production for 2014/15 is lowered 1.6 million tons with reductions for South Africa and Belarus only partly offset by an increase for Argentina. South Africa corn output is lowered 2.0 million tons as February dryness and periodic heat, particularly in the western and central corn growing regions, coincided with corn pollination. Corn production is lowered 0.1million tons for Belarus based on indications of lower harvested area from the Ministry of Agriculture. Argentina corn production is raised 0.5 million tons as a small reduction in harvested area due to recent flooding is more than offset by higher expected yields with abundant soil moisture available for pollination and grain fill in other areas. Developing dryness in southern growing areas, however, limits this month’s yield increase.

Other coarse grain production changes for 2014/15 include a 0.5-million-ton increase for India millet, a 0.4-million-ton increase for Australia barley, and 0.2-million-ton increases for both Belarus barley and rye.Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is raised 2.7 million tons mostly on higher barley use for China with larger imports and higher millet use for India with larger production. Barley consumption and imports are also raised for Iran. Partly offsetting the increases in barley imports for China and Iran is a reduction for Saudi Arabia. Barley exports are raised for EU and Australia. Corn imports are raised for Saudi Arabia and Israel. In addition to the United States, corn exports are raised for Argentina and Brazil, more than offsetting a reduction for South Africa.

Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2014/15 are lowered 5.0 million tons with corn ending stocks down 4.4 million. Projected foreign corn ending stocks are lowered 3.1million tons with reductions for South Africa and Argentina.

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2014/15 are unchanged this month.With soybean crush and exports projected at 1,795 million bushels and 1,790 million bushels respectively, ending stocks remain projected at an 8-year high of 385 million bushels.Soybean and soybean product prices are also unchanged. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2014/15 is projected at $9.45 to $10.95 per bushel; soybean meal and soybean oil prices are projected at $350 to $390 per short ton and 30 to 34 cents per pound,respectively.

Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 532.2 million tons, up fractionally from last month on small changes in foreign production. Global soybean production is unchanged at a record 315.1 million tons with Brazil soybean production projected at 94.5 million tons, Argentina at 56.0 million, and Paraguay at 8.5 million. Small changes in other oilseeds include increased rapeseed production for Australia, lower sunflower seed production for India, and higher cottonseed production for Pakistan.

Global oilseed trade for 2014/15 is projected at 136.8 million tons, up 0.3 million mainly reflecting increased soybean exports for Paraguay and India. Soybean imports are raised for several countries including Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Bangladesh. Lower soybean imports for Brazil and Iran partly offset these gains. Oilseed product trade changes include reduced soybean meal exports for India and reduced soybean meal imports for Turkey, the Philippines, Japan, and Venezuela. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 103.3 million tons, up fractionally from last month.

WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2014/15 are reduced 1 million bushels with an increase in expected seed use. The seed use change is based on the 2015 planted area projection released at USDA’s February Agricultural Outlook Forum. The projected season average farm price range is narrowed 5 cents on both the high and low ends to $5.90 to $6.10 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2014/15 are lowered fractionally due mainly to reduced Brazil production, which is partially offset by a larger Belarus crop. Both changes are made on updated government statistics. Global wheat exports are raised 0.5 million tons. The primary export increase is for EU on a fast pace of both shipments and export licenses. Imports are raised 0.3 million tons each for Morocco, Philippines, and Thailand, 0.2 million tons each for Jordan and Vietnam, and 0.1 million tons each for Ecuador and Saudi Arabia. These increases are partially offset by reductions of 0.3 million tons each for Algeria, Syria, and Yemen, 0.2 million tons for Libya, and 0.1 million tons each for Israel and Japan.

Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is down fractionally on lower food use, which is partially offset by increased wheat feeding. The largest decreases for food use are Brazil, India, and Syria (down 0.3 million tons each), and Libya and Yemen (down 0.2 million tons each). Feed use is raised 0.5 million tons for Australia, and 0.2 million tons for Thailand. This is partially offset by a 0.2-million-ton reduction for Israel wheat feeding. With world supplies falling faster than use, ending stocks are reduced fractionally.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
The 2015 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as lower beef production more than offsets increases in pork and broiler production. Fed cattle slaughter is expected to be lower in the first-quarter,but cow slaughter remains higher than expected. In addition, carcass weights are reduced slightly in the first quarter. Pork production is increased on higher first quarter slaughter and slightly heavier carcass weights. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 27 which will provide an indication of producers’ expectations to farrow sows through the third quarter. Broiler production is higher as hatchery data shows continued growth in chicks placed. Turkey and egg production is unchanged from last month.

The 2015 beef import forecast is higher than last month as demand for processing grade beef remains strong and strength of the dollar makes the United States an attractive market. Beef exports for 2015 are reduced due to relatively high U.S. prices and the strong dollar. Pork exports are lowered based on lower-than-expected shipments in January. Pork imports are raised as the strong dollar makes the United States an attractive market despite large supplies of domestic pork. The broiler export forecast is lowered as the strong dollar crimps demand.Turkey exports are also reduced. The egg export forecast is raised.

The 2015 cattle price is unchanged. The hog price forecast is reduced as greater production and lower exports imply greater supplies for the domestic market. Broiler prices are lowered on weaker demand and larger supplies of product.  Turkey prices are unchanged. The egg price is raised on stronger first quarter demand.The milk production forecast for 2015 is lowered from last month as slower growth in output per cow more than offsets faster herd expansion. Both fat and skim-solids exports for 2015 are reduced as export demand is hampered by a strong dollar and increased competition from other exporters. Fat basis imports are higher on expectations of greater butterfat imports.  However, robust domestic demand is expected to support increased product use.

Product price forecasts for butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM) are higher, supported by demand and price strength to date. Cheese prices are unchanged at the midpoint but the range is narrowed. Whey is lower on weaker demand.  The Class III price is lowered on reduced whey prices. The Class IV price is higher due to higher NDM prices and butter prices. The all milk price is forecast at $17.05 to $17.65 per cwt.



Farm Bureau Calls on EPA to Retain, Enforce Reasonable Air Quality Standards

The American Farm Bureau Federation is warning that the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposal to place further restrictions on air quality standards would damage agriculture and rural communities if implemented.

The move to tighten already strict ozone standards would impose significant cost to farmers and ranchers without delivering a guaranteed benefit to the public, AFBF said in formal comments submitted to the EPA late yesterday. Although it is a relatively small contributor to ozone levels, agriculture would be hit hard. Basic farming activities such as animal feeding, pesticide application and waste management would be further restricted even as proposed limits are at or near naturally occurring levels in some areas. Higher costs to meet special requirements for vehicles and fuel would be passed on to farmers and ranchers who depend on affordable energy to stay competitive in the global economy.

“EPA’s proposed ozone standards would limit business expansion in nearly every populated region of the Unite States. U.S. industry and agriculture, alike, will create fewer jobs and be less competitive in the world market if these proposals are implemented,” said Dale Moore, AFBF executive director of public policy. “The hardship to farmers, ranchers and rural America will be real and immediate, while the benefits are unverified and uncertain.”



EIA Revises 2015 Forecast for Ethanol Output Up 9,000 Bpd

The Energy Information Administration expects ethanol production this year to average 947,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook published Tuesday, March 10... that's 9,000 bpd above last month's estimate and 12,000 bpd higher than output at 935,000 bpd in 2014.

After reaching a record monthly average of 1.002 million bpd in December 2014, ethanol production in February is estimated to have fallen to an average of 948,000 bpd. The agency forecast 2016 production at 942,000 bpd versus 936,000 bpd in February's STEO.

EIA said biodiesel production averaged an estimated 83,000 bpd in 2014 and is forecast to average 84,000 bpd in both 2015 and 2016.

The agency estimates that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels increased 1.0% in 2014 and are forecast to rise 0.2% this year and 0.3% in 2016, with both estimates sensitive to weather and economic assumptions.



EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook Highlights
March 10, 2015

    North Sea Brent crude oil prices averaged $58/barrel (bbl) in February, an increase of $10/bbl from the January average, and the first monthly average price increase since June 2014. The price increase reflects news of falling U.S. crude oil rig counts and announced reductions in capital expenditures by major oil companies, along with lower-than-expected Iraqi crude oil exports.

    EIA forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $59/bbl in 2015, $2/bbl higher than projected in last month's STEO, and $75/bbl in 2016. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices in 2015 and 2016 are expected to average $7/bbl and $5/bbl, respectively, below Brent. The Brent-WTI spread for 2015 is more than twice the projection in last month's STEO, reflecting continuing large builds in U.S. crude oil inventories, including at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub.

    The current values of futures and options contracts continue to suggest very high uncertainty in the oil price outlook (Market Prices and Uncertainty Report). Although WTI futures contracts for June 2015 delivery traded during the five-day period ending March 5 averaged $54/bbl, the market's expectations (at the 95% confidence interval) for monthly average WTI prices in June 2015 range from $33/bbl to $81/bbl. The band widens over time, with lower and upper limits of $32/bbl and $108/bbl for the broadly held December 2015 contract.

    Total U.S. crude oil production was estimated to average 9.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in February. Given EIA's price forecast, projected total crude oil production averages 9.3 million bbl/d in 2015 and 9.5 million bbl/d in 2016, close to the 9.6 million bbl/d highest annual average level of U.S. production in 1970.

    U.S. average regular gasoline retail prices increased for the sixth consecutive week from $2.04/gallon (gal) on January 26 to $2.49/gal on March 9, reflecting rising crude oil prices and several outages at West Coast refineries. EIA expects U.S. regular gasoline retail prices, which averaged $3.36/gal in 2014, to average $2.39/gal in 2015, an increase of $0.05/gal from last month's STEO, and $2.73/gal in 2016. The average household is expected to spend $710 less for gasoline in 2015 compared with last year because of lower prices.

    Natural gas working inventories on February 27 totaled 1,710 billion cubic feet (Bcf), 492 Bcf (40%) above the level at the same time in 2014 but 143 Bcf (8%) below the previous five-year (2010-14) average. EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $4.39/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2014, to average $3.07/MMBtu in 2015 and $3.48/MMBtu in 2016, largely unchanged from last month's STEO.

    Much of the eastern United States experienced a very cold February, which resulted in increased electricity demand for space heating. EIA estimates total U.S. generation during February 2015 averaged 11,800 gigawatthours (GWh) per day, which would be a monthly record for February. However, this estimated level of generation still falls short of the winter-month record for total U.S. power generation (12,178 GWh per day) during January 2014.



10-34-0 Rapidly Moving Higher

The majority of retail fertilizer prices continued to shift higher the first week of March 2015, according to fertilizer retailers surveyed by DTN. Prices gained for five of the eight major fertilizers compared to a month earlier, but only one of the five was up by any significance.

10-34-0 jumped 6% compared to last month. The starter fertilizer continued its sharp climb in recent weeks as issues with availability became evident. Retailers report a shortage with an acid used to make the fertilizer is spurring the price increase.

10-34-0 had an average price of $626 per ton, up from $511/ton a year ago. The starter fertilizer advanced above $600/ton for the first time since the third week of July 2013 when the price was $606/ton.

The remaining fertilizers with slightly higher prices were DAP with an average price of $570/ton, potash $489/ton, UAN28 $331/ton and UAN32 $371/ton.

Two fertilizers were lower compared to a month ago, but neither was down significantly. Urea averaged $471/ton and anhydrous was at $706/ton.

The remaining fertilizer, MAP, was unchanged from the previous month. The phosphorus fertilizer had an average price of $597/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.51/lb.N, anhydrous $0.43/lb.N, UAN28 $0.59/lb.N and UAN32 $0.58/lb.N.

Two of the eight major fertilizers are now double digits higher in price compared to March 2014, all while commodity prices are significantly lower from a year ago. 10-34-0 is 23% higher while anhydrous is 14% more expensive compared to year earlier.

MAP is 5% higher while both DAP and potash are 3% more expensive compared to a year earlier.

Three nutrients are now lower compared to retail prices from a year ago. UAN28 is down 4%, UAN32 is 5% less expensive and urea is 11% less expensive than a year ago.



CWT Assists in 9.7 Million Pounds Of Dairy Product Export Sales

Cooperatives Working Together helped its member cooperatives in February get contracts to sell 5.3 million pounds of cheese and 4.4 million pounds of butter overseas. The contracted products, which represent the equivalent of 148.5 million pounds of milk on a milkfat basis, will go to customers in 10 countries on five continents.  

Year-to-date, CWT has assisted member cooperatives who have contracts to sell 9.7 million pounds of cheese and 18.8 million pounds of butter to 18 countries.



National Farmers Union to convene in Wichita March 14-17

For the first time since 1946, Kansas is hosting National Farmers Union's annual convention, under the theme "Driving the Future of Agriculture," which will be held Saturday, March 14 through Tuesday, March 17 at the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Wichita.

NFU Vice President and Kansas Farmers Union President Donn Teske noted, "What makes me proud is the truly grassroots policy development that the annual national event revolves around. This is where state Farmers Union chapter delegates - selected to represent their own state policy - negotiate, debate, and develop the NFU policy."

Teske goes on to say, "Policy approved at the national convention dictates what our organization stands for and provides the marching orders for NFU staff and leadership as they represent our organization."

Keynote speakers include USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack and EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy, who will address the crowd on pertinent agricultural and environmental issues on Monday. Noted animal behavior specialist Temple Grandin will give the opening banquet address Saturday evening, and the film "Temple Grandin" will also be screened for members and guests throughout the convention.

Convention breakout topics include:
    Safety on the Farm and Ranch - A session to learn how to keep you, your employees, and your family safe on the farm or ranch.

    Are You Healthy? Are You Sure? - Felix Tarm, MD will help you learn what risk factors predict death and disability among adults that are easy to detect, but commonly ignored by patients and doctors alike.

    Weather Patterns Today and Tomorrow - Dr. W. Chris King, renowned expert in analyzing world security issues caused by climate change, will lead a discussion on how human-induced changes to the Earths' environment affects weather and the billions of people on the planet.

    Farmers Union: Untold Stories - The Farmers Educational Cooperative Union of America was formed in 1902, and has many stories both told and untold. Bring your intrigue and questions, NFU Honorary Historian Tom Giessel may hold the answer.

    Finding Farming - Seventy eight percent of nationally surveyed farmers did not grow up on a farm or ranch. Hear from a panel of beginning farmer producers who are "finding farming" for the first time.

    Developing Perennial Grain Crops - The Land Institute is working to develop "natural systems agriculture," developing perennial grain crops that can be planted together in fields, mimicking the natural prairie. Learn more about the Institute and their programs in this breakout from the Institute's own Wes Jackson.

Additional convention highlights include a tour of the Pete Ferrell Ranch, home of the Elk River Wind Project - a 150-megawatt wind farm that opened in 2005, and a visit to Strataca, the Kansas underground salt museum - an underground adventure 650 feet below the Kansas prairie which is the only salt mine tour of its kind in North America.

Jim Richardson, National Geographic photographer and Kansas native, will serve up a vast visual journey: the Neolithic dawn of agriculture, today's world farmers working in relative anonymity, and the challenges of feeding an ever-more hungry planet through 2050 at NFU's Foundation Gala on Sunday evening.

The general public is encouraged to attend. For more information, and to register for the convention, go to www.nfu.org/convention.



Calling all farm moms: American Agri-Women judging entries in Monsanto's 'America's Farmers Mom of the Year' contest

American Agri-Women (AAW) has the inspiring and humbling task of helping select the “farm mom of all farm moms.” A panel of AAW judges will help select the semi-finalists for the 2015 America’s Farmers Mom of the Year contest, sponsored by Monsanto.

AAW is the nation’s largest coalition of farm, ranch and agri-business women. The organization is celebrating 40 years of advocating for agriculture and empowering women in agriculture.

“It is so heart-warming to read the nominations from family members of all ages. They share personal stories and memories of everything women do day in and day out and year in and year out to keep their family and farm going. They’re super heroes to their families,” says Donnell Scott, AAW’s vice president of education, who is leading the judging efforts.

Anyone can nominate their favorite farm mom, whether it’s their mom, sister, aunt, daughter, friend or community member. Just visit AmericasFarmers.com during the nomination period and submit a brief essay online or by mail that explains how the nominated farm mom contributes to her family, farm, community and agriculture. Nominations will be accepted through March 31.

The five regional winners, which are selected from the semi-finalists, will be announced at the end of April, and each winner will receive a $5,000 cash prize. Profiles of the winners will then be posted to AmericasFarmers.com, where the public can vote for one national farm mom winner. Announced just prior to Mother’s Day, the national winner will receive an additional $5,000 cash prize above and beyond her regional prize, for a total of $10,000.

For more information on the program or for complete eligibility requirements and official contest rules visit AmericasFarmers.com. Interested parties may also send a self-addressed, stamped envelope to America's Farmers Mom of the Year, Attn: Sue Dillon, 349 Marshall Ave., Ste. 200, St. Louis, MO 63119.