USDA - WASDE and Crop Production Reports

USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate
World Agricultural Outlook Board -  May 12, 2015

Note: This report presents USDA’s initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. prices for 2015/16. Also presented are the first calendar-year 2016 projections of U.S. livestock, poultry, and dairy products. Because spring planting is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. 

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected to slightly exceed the record level of 2014/15 as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower expected production. Corn production is projected at 13.6 billion bushels, down 586 million from the record 2014/15 crop with a lower forecast area and yield. The U.S. corn yield is projected at 166.8 bushels per acre, down 4.2 bushels from the 2014/15 record based on a weather adjusted yield trend that assumes normal summer weather. The 2015 yield outlook is not raised, despite the rapid pace of late-April and early May planting, as more than 90 percent of the variability in the corn yield is determined by July precipitation and temperatures in the Midwest, which are unknowable at this time. Corn supplies for 2015/16 are projected at a record 15.5 billion bushels, up just slightly from 2014/15.

U.S. corn use for 2015/16 is projected at a record 13.8 billion bushels, 1 percent higher than this month’s revised projection for 2014/15. Feed and residual use for 2015/16 is projected 50 million bushels higher with animal numbers up from 2014/15. Corn used to produce ethanol in 2015/16 is expected to be unchanged as projected gasoline consumption during the 2015/16 marketing year is nearly identical to 2014/15. Corn use in other food, seed, and industrial categories in 2015/16 is projected slightly higher than this month’s lower forecast for 2014/15. Exports for 2015/16 are projected 75 million bushels higher on the year with the 2014/15 projection raised 25 million bushels this month. More competitive prices and growth in world demand support gains in U.S. exports for 2015/16, but large foreign supplies limit growth in the U.S. share of global trade. Corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 1.7 billion bushels, down 105 million from the 2014/15 projection. The season-average 2015/16 farm price is projected at $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel, down 15 cents at the midpoint from this month’s lowered outlook for 2014/15. Forward pricing the 2015 crop have been at substantially lower levels than similar bids offered for the 2014 crop.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected at a record 1,505.1 million tons, up 9.6 million tons from 2014/15 with the increase mainly reflecting larger corn beginning stocks and production for China. Global corn production for 2015/16 is projected at 989.8 million tons, down from the 2014/15 record, largely reflecting the smaller projected U.S. crop. Declines in 2015/16 corn production are also expected for EU, Brazil, Ukraine, and Mexico. In addition to China, where corn production is projected up 12.3 million tons, corn production is expected higher for South Africa, India, Canada, Russia, and Argentina.

Global corn consumption for 2015/16 is projected at a record 990.4 million tons, 13.0 million tons higher than in 2014/15, with notable increases for China, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Egypt, Canada, India, Indonesia, Iran, and Mexico. Corn imports for 2015/16 are projected higher year-to-year for EU, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, South Korea, and Mexico. Corn exports are lowered for Ukraine, Brazil, and EU, but raised for South Africa, Argentina, and India compared with 2014/15. Global corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 191.9 million tons, down 0.6 million from 2014/15.

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 114.1 million tons, down 2.6 percent from 2014/15 mainly on lower soybean production. Soybean production is projected at 3,850 million bushels, down 119 million from the 2014 crop with record harvested area more than offset by lower yields. Harvested area is projected at 83.7 million acres based on a 5-year average harvested-toplanted ratio  and planted area of 84.6 million acres. The soybean yield is projected at a trend level of 46.0 bushels per acre, down 1.8 bushels from last year’s record. Supplies are projected at 4,230 million bushels, up 3.4 percent from 2014/15 with increased beginning stocks more than offsetting lower production.

The U.S. soybean crush for 2015/16 is projected at 1,825 billion bushels, up 20 million from 2014/15. U.S. soybean meal use is projected to increase 3.2 percent in line with expected gains in U.S. meat production. Despite lower prices, soybean meal exports are projected to decline with increased exports from South America and India accounting for most of the gains in global soybean meal trade. Soybean exports are projected at 1,775 million bushels, down 25 million from 2014/15 despite record supplies. Competition from record supplies in South America is expected to limit U.S. exports during the first half of the 2015/16 marketing year. With larger supplies and lower use, U.S. ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 500 million bushels, up 150 million from 2014/15. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2015/16 will decline to $8.25 to $9.75 per bushel compared with $10.05 in 2014/15. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $305 to $345 per short ton compared with $365 in 2014/15. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 29.5 to 32.5 cents per pound compared with 32.0 cents in 2014/15.

Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 531.2 million tons, slightly below 2014/15. Global soybean production is projected at 317.3 million tons, almost unchanged from 2014/15 with gains for Brazil, India, Paraguay, and Ukraine offset by reductions for the United States, Argentina, and China. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 57.0 million tons, down 1.5 million from 2014/15 with higher area but lower yields. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at a record 97.0 million tons, up 2.5 million on higher area. China soybean production is projected at 11.5 million tons, down 0.85 million as producers shift to more profitable crops. Total oilseed supplies are up 2.8 percent from 2014/15. With crush projected to increase 2.3 percent, global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 107.4 million tons, up 8.3 million from the revised 2014/15 stock estimate.

Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.4 percent in 2015/16. Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.0 percent in China, accounting for 24 percent of global protein consumption gains. Global soybean exports are projected at 122 million tons, up 3.8 percent from 2014/15. China soybean imports are projected at 77.5 million tons, up 4 million from the revised 2014/15 projection. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to increase 3.6 percent in 2015/16 led by increases for China, India, and Indonesia.

WHEAT: U.S. wheat supplies for 2015/16 are projected up 6 percent from 2014/15 on higher beginning stocks and production. All wheat production is projected at 2,087 million bushels, up 3 percent. The all wheat yield is projected at 43.5 bushels per acre, down slightly from the previous year.  The survey-based forecast for 2015/16 all winter wheat production is up 7 percent with both higher yields and harvested area. A decline in Soft Red Winter wheat harvested area is more than offset by increased Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat harvested area. This year’s HRW yield is above last year’s low level, but drought and winterkill have adversely affected the crop again. White Winter wheat production is projected up 10 percent from last year mainly on higher yields. Spring wheat production for 2015/16 is projected to decline 5 percent on an assumed return to trend yields from last year’s nearrecord level,  more than offsetting a slight increase in harvested area.

Total U.S. wheat use for 2015/16 is projected up 4 percent from the previous year on higher exports, feed and residual use, and food use. The 2015/16 exports are projected at 925 million bushels, up 65 million bushels from the previous year’s low level but still below the 5 year-average. Large supplies in several major competing countries will continue to limit U.S. exports. Feed and residual use is projected up 20 million bushels on increased supplies. U.S. ending stocks are projected to rise 84 million bushels to 793 million, the highest since the 2010/11 crop year. The all wheat season-average farm price is projected at $4.50 to $5.50 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies are projected to rise fractionally from 2014/15 as increased beginning stocks more than offset a slight decline in production from the previous year’s record. Total wheat production is projected at 718.9 million tons, the second highest total on record. Foreign production is down 9.2 million tons with reductions for EU, India, Russia, and Ukraine more than offsetting increases for China, Turkey, Morocco, Australia, Iran, and Syria. Global wheat consumption for 2015/16 is projected slightly higher than in 2014/15 with higher food use more than offsetting a reduction in world wheat feeding. Global import demand for 2015/16 is lower with the largest reductions coming from Turkey, Iran, Morocco, and Syria all on greatly improved crop prospects. Exports are lower for Canada, India, EU, Russia, and Ukraine, but higher for Argentina and Australia. Global ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 203.3 million tons, up 2.4 million from 2014/15.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
Total U.S. red meat and poultry production in 2016 is projected to be above 2015. Beef production is forecast higher as gains in the 2014 and 2015 calf crops support year-over-year increases in cattle placements in late 2015 and early 2016. Marketings of fed cattle are forecast to increase during 2016, while carcass weights are expected to reflect incentives to keep cattle weights high. Pork production is expected to increase as pig crops expand; reflecting moderate increases in farrowings during late 2015 and early 2016 and a continued recovery in growth in pigs per litter. Broiler and turkey production are forecast higher as the more rapid expansion in production which began in late 2014 continues. Egg production for 2016 is forecast to expand as producers respond to favorable egg prices and moderate feed costs.

The total red meat and poultry production forecast for 2015 is raised from last month on higher beef, pork, and broiler production. Beef production is raised on heavier dressed weights. Pork production is forecast higher as the pace of slaughter in the second quarter remains heavy and supplies of slaughter hogs in the second part of the year are expected to remain ample. Broiler production is raised from last month as producers continue to expand egg sets and chicks placed. Turkey production is lowered from last month as previously forecast production growth is expected to be limited. Egg production for 2015 is lowered as recent discoveries of HPAI will constrain production growth.

Red meat and poultry exports are expected to increase in 2016 with expanding production. Imports of beef and pork are expected to decline. For 2015, export forecasts for beef, pork, and broiler meat are raised from last month on March export data and larger production forecasts. Beef imports are forecast higher on strong processing-grade beef demand and tight supplies of domestic processing beef. Pork imports are lowered with expected increases in production.

For 2016, fed cattle prices are forecast near 2015 levels as supplies increase but demand for fed cattle remains robust. Hog prices are forecast to be lower than 2015 as hog supplies increase. However, broiler and turkey prices are forecast higher despite increased production as demand improves and beef supplies remain tight. Egg prices are forecast higher on firm demand. The fed cattle price forecast for 2015 is lowered from last month. Hog prices are reduced slightly. Broiler prices are forecast higher as demand remains strong. Turkey prices are raised based on current strength in prices and reduced production. Egg prices are unchanged.

Milk production for 2016 is forecast higher as improved forage availability and moderate feed costs are expected to support gains in milk per cow. Cow numbers are forecast slightly higher. Commercial exports on both a fat and skim-solids basis are forecast higher with a resumption of normal trade patterns. Imports are forecast lower as domestic production increases and demand from competing importers is higher. With stronger domestic demand and export, cheese, nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices are forecast higher, but butter prices are forecast lower as strong NDM demand is expected to support relatively high levels of butter production. Both Class III and Class IV prices are forecast higher. The all milk price is forecast at $17.45 to $18.45 per cwt for 2016.]\

Forecast milk production in 2015 is forecast lower than last month as drought in the West impacts milk per cow and growth in the cow herd is expected to be slower. Fat and skim-solids imports are raised on strong cheese demand. Fat basis exports are raised on better-than-expected March exports. Skimsolids exports are higher based on higher NDM and lactose shipments. Cheese, NDM, and whey prices are forecast lower on weaker demand, but the butter price forecast is raised on strong demand.  The Class III price is lowered on weaker cheese and whey prices. The Class IV price is lower as the stronger butter price is more than offset by the reduced prices for NDM. The milk price is forecast to average $17.10 to $17.60 per cwt.



NEBRASKA CROP PRODUCTION REPORT

Based on May 1 conditions, Nebraska's 2015 winter wheat cropis forecast at 58.4 million bushels, down 18 percent from last year’s crop, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Average yield is forecast at 40 bushels per acre, down 9 bushels from a year earlier.

Acreage to be harvested for grain is estimated at 1.46 million acres, up slightly from a year ago.

This would be 91 percent of the planted acres, below last year’s 94 percent harvested.

May 1 hay stocks of 1.25 million tons, up 9 percent from last year.

Iowa Hay Stocks 
Dry hay stored on Iowa farms as of May 1, 2015,is estimated at 700 thousand tons, an increase of71 percent from May 2014, according to the latestUSDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Crop Production report. Disappearance fromDecember 1, 2014 – May 1, 2015, totaled2.25 million tons, down 4 percent from the2.34 million tons for the same period a year earlier.



USDA:  Winter Wheat Production Up 7 Percent from 2014

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.47 billion bushels, up 7 percent from 2014. As of May 1, the United States yield is forecast at 43.5 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushel from last year.

Hard Red Winter production, at 853 million bushels, is up 16 percent from a year ago. Soft Red Winter, at 416 million bushels, is down 9 percent from 2014. White Winter, at 203 million bushels, is up 10 percent from last year. Of the White Winter production, 11.5 million bushels are Hard White and 191 million bushels are Soft White.