Friday July 10 Ag News + July 10 WASDE Report

Cattle Heat Stress Forecast

The USDA Agriculture Research Service Cattle Heat Stress forecast map is published with the National Weather Service at http://www.ars.usda.gov/Main/docs.htm?docid=21306 . If you click on the Nebraska region you will see the seven-day forecast.

The center is predicting emergency heat stress levels for Saturday July 11 and Sunday July 12, due to high temperatures, higher humidity, low wind speeds and little cloud cover.  Saturday afternoon will more than likely be the worst, as the forecast is calling for wind speeds of less than 5 mph and higher humidity for the region due to scattered rain fall on Friday and little cloud cover.

The forecast for Sunday is for greater wind speeds, increased cloud cover and lower humidity.   Careful attention should be given to cattle on Sunday morning to see if they have cooled down enough over night to handle Sunday’s heat load or if intervention should be implemented.  Also be aware of the humidity and cloud cover on Sunday.

Nebraska Cattlemen has a few suggestions to prepare for heat stress, especially in cattle, on their web site...   http://www.nebraskacattlemen.org/heatstress.aspx.  

Heat Stress precautions should include:
  - Checking water flow in waters.
  - Organizing extra water sources such as livestock tanks and delivery tanks.
  - Developing a plan for emergency water supplement may include contacting neighbors with firefighting equipment to wet down cattle that are experiencing heat stress.
  - Cattle with reduced lung capacity from previous sickness and black hided cattle are more susceptible.  Plans should be made to move cattle on Friday to empty pens should be considered to allow for greater use of waterers.
  - While sprinklers can be used be careful to watch the overuse of them creating more humidity in your lot which may increase the heat index at your lot on Sunday and Monday. 

Nebraska Extension offers good considerations to avoid heat stress at https://beef.unl.edu/cattleproduction/heatstress2012. 

 A very good article on the use of sprinkling mounds can be found at http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1291&context=animalscinbcr. 



NEBRASKA CROP PRODUCTION REPORT

Based on July 1 conditions, Nebraska's 2015 winter wheat crop is forecast at 54.6 million bushels, down 23 percent from last year’s crop, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Average yield is forecast at 42 bushels per acre, down 7 bushels from a year earlier.Acreage to be harvested for grain is estimated at 1.30 million acres, down 10 percent from a year ago. This would be 87 percent of the planted acres, below last year’s 94 percent harvested.

Oat production is forecast at 1.80 million bushels, up 13 percent from last year. Acreage for harvest, at 30,000 acres, is up 10,000 acres from 2014. Yield, at 60 bushels per acres, is forecast to be 20 bushels below a year ago.




CONFERENCE WILL HIGHLIGHT STUDY ON SWINE FEED EFFICIENCY

Animal science scholars, researchers and swine industry experts will gather in Omaha, Neb., Oct. 20-22 to share the results of a five-year study on swine feed efficiency gathered from multiple industry vantage points and ranging from pig health, nutrition and physiology to genetics, feed manufacturing and pork quality.

Presented by Iowa State University and Kansas State University, the conference will feature findings presented by research and extension faculty from those schools supplemented by speakers from Michigan State University and the University of Illinois. International speakers will include researchers and industry experts from Australia, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom.

The program also will feature speakers from the pork industry, including Cargill, Christensen Farms, Murphy-Brown, Nutreco and Topigs Norsvin. The research, funded by USDA’s National Institutes of Food and Agriculture, has generated a body of knowledge that will have relevance for pork producers interested in learning how to most effectively manage feed efficiency on their operations, for allied industry serving the needs of swine producers around the globe and for the research and animal science community interested in the science surrounding feed efficiency.

For more information and to register for the conference, visit www.swinefeedefficiency.com.



 Nebraska NRCS Calling for Proposals to Conserve Ogallala Aquifer

State Conservationist Craig Derickson announced today that the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service is seeking proposals for focus areas to target Ogallala Aquifer Initiative funding. Applications for proposals are due by August 5, 2015.

The main goals of the Ogallala Aquifer Initiative are to reduce aquifer water use, improve water quality and enhance the economic viability of croplands and rangelands in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, New Mexico, Texas, South Dakota and Wyoming.

Currently, the use of groundwater from the aquifer is unsustainable as withdrawals exceed the natural recharge of the aquifer. Intensive agricultural and industrial practices threaten the quality and quantity of the water source.

The Ogallala Aquifer Initiative funding is focused on geographic areas within the Ogallala Aquifer that support targeted, local efforts to conserve the quality and quantity of water in defined areas of the aquifer. NRCS is inviting conservation partner organizations to submit proposals for Ogallala Aquifer Initiative focus areas that meet this need.

Proposed focus areas should be located in the previously used target area for the Ogallala Aquifer Initiative (see map). Any proposal for a focus area that incorporates land outside this target area must include information describing the aquifer-related water quantity or quality concerns that occur in that area.

“Water is a precious resource, and the Ogallala Aquifer Initiative helps our farmers and ranchers use it wisely,” said Derickson. “This is especially important in a place like Nebraska, where drought conditions have prevailed in recent history. We know we can’t change the weather, but we can help producers be ready for it.”

For more information on how to submit a proposal for an Ogallala Aquifer Initiative focus area, visit your local USDA service center or the Nebraska Natural Resources Conservation Service website www.ne.nrcs.usda.gov.



Learning the Science of Interpreting Soil and Manure Tests

Summer is the best time to apply livestock manure for crop fertilization, but getting the right level is a science. To aid farmers in nutrient management, Iowa State University Extension and Outreach dairy specialists are offering a workshop to fine-tune manure applications with soil management practices and testing.

“We will take a step-by-step approach on how to read a soil test and determine fertilizer needs,” said Jennifer Bentley, dairy specialist with ISU Extension and Outreach. “Instructions will be offered for reading a manure test and determining how much of the crop nutrient needs can be met with manure applications. This knowledge will optimize on-farm resources, and likely reduce commercial fertilizer costs while increasing producer income.”

The 2-hour workshop is from 10 a.m. to noon, with the first hour training on manure management ‘how-to’ with examples and a step-by-step guide. The second hour will be question and answer time with Extension specialists. Leading the sessions are Brian Lang and Joel DeJong, both field agronomists with ISU Extension and Outreach. Participants may bring along recent soil and manure tests from their farm operations for interpretation.

There are nine workshop dates and locations available in August:
    Wednesday, Aug. 12 – Winneshiek County ISU Extension office, Decorah, 563-382-2949
    Thursday, Aug. 13 – Fayette County ISU Extension office, Fayette, 563-425-3331
    Tuesday, Aug. 18 – Allamakee County ISU Extension office, Waukon, 563-568-6345
    Wednesday, Aug. 19 - Sac County ISU Extension office, Sac City, 712-737-4230
    Thursday, Aug. 20 – Howard County ISU Extension office, Cresco, 563-547-3001
    Thursday, Aug. 20 – Sioux County at Northwest Iowa Community College, Campus Building A, Room 119, Sheldon, 712-737-4230
    Tuesday, Aug. 25 – Delaware County ISU Extension office, Manchester, 563-927-4201
    Wednesday, Aug. 26 – Dubuque County ISU Extension office, Dubuque, 563-583-6496
    Thursday, Aug. 27 – Clayton County ISU Extension office, Elkader, 563-245-1451

The program is free, but seating is limited so please call ahead to make your reservation. For more information or to make reservations, contact the local county extension office or visit www.extension.iastate.edu/content/county-offices.

This informational meeting is sponsored by Iowa State University Extension and Outreach and North Central Risk Management Education Center.



Managing Farm Financials Easier with Crop Marketing Videos

A series of educational videos addressing various components of grain marketing fundamentals was recently created for Iowa farmers. Crop Marketing 101 features faculty and staff from Iowa State University Extension and Outreach and is available to view on the Ag Decision Maker website and the ISU Extension and Outreach’s Agriculture and Natural Resources YouTube channel.

“The 10 videos were produced with a goal of helping farmers figure out the intricate details of marketing and selling their crops, grain and livestock on the Chicago Board of Trade,” said Chad Hart. “Crop marketing is difficult. The videos offer helpful hints on cash sales, forward contracts, future outlooks and strategies on commodity options.”

“Unpredictable events can shape the market and commodity prices,” said Steve Johnson, farm management specialist with ISU Extension and Outreach. “While production risks are at the forefront of most producers’ minds, don’t ignore the need to manage the farm’s overall financial risks. The initial concern may be to market crops at lower cash prices, not seen since 2009. However, part of the solution is looking beyond the next six months.”

Johnson suggests farmers concerned about successfully marketing their crops should watch the Crop Marketing 101 videos. “When planning for the 2015 projected tight profit margins, consider five financial risk management strategies: protect your working capital, secure repayment capacity, control your costs, maximize your yield and manage price risks,” said Johnson.

Details for using these risk management strategies when planning a farm financial strategy can be found in a recent article in the June 2015 Ag Decision Maker newsletter. The instructional videos are from three to eight minutes in length and include:

    Introduction to Crop Marketing – An overview of corn and soybean marketing including the four basic marketing tools: cash sales, forward contracts, futures and options.

    ISU Crop Marketing Information – Resources from Iowa State University.

    Basis, Futures Carry & the Cost of Storage – Learn about crop basis, futures carry and the cost of grain storage.

    Market Fundamentals (Supply/Demand) – Examine the balance between crop supplies and crop demands that determine both futures and cash prices.

    Technical Chart Signals – Examine chart signals on futures charts.

    Seasonal Price Trends – Review corn and soybean price patterns that repeat themselves with some degree of accuracy year after year in crop markets.

    Crop Marketing Strategies – Learn to use a crop marketing matrix based on your expectation for futures prices and basis to determine appropriate strategies and tools.

    Marketing Tools: Futures – Review the role of futures contracts traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) farmers can use to reduce crop price risk by hedging.

    Marketing Tools: Options – Understand the basics of both put and call options used for managing futures price risk.

    Developing a Crop Marketing Plan – Learn how to put together a proactive strategy to price your crop.

“Understanding the basics can get producers that much closer to selling or buying at the right time and price,” Johnson said. “Farmers want to make a profit and the tools, such as the crop marketing matrix or learning to put together a planned strategy including goals based on time and finances, storage capacity and production, anticipating insurance and risk needs, can reduce a producer’s apprehension.”

Hart said the videos will not have all the information a producer needs to discover cash flow and budgeting for the farming operation, but they will spark their interest to learn more.

ISU Extension and Outreach’s Ag Decision Maker website has an Iowa Commodity Challenge page with a 60-page Marketing Tools Workbook with weekly tracking tables, market planning activities along with recorded webcasts. Links for the videos and other marketing resources can be found on the Markets page of Ag Decision Maker, www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm. For more information, contact an Extension farm management specialist.



Championship effort by farmers showcased at Summer Iowa Game Athlete Jamboree July 17 Ames

A celebration of food, farming and fitness will fill the east parking lots of Jack Trice Stadium in Ames in conjunction with the Summer Iowa Games Athlete Jamboree & Opening Ceremonies Friday, July 17 beginning at 5 p.m.

The “Food & Family Fair,” powered by the Iowa Food & Family Project (Iowa FFP), connects athletes, their families and spectators with farmers and their contribution to healthy lifestyles and strong communities. This year’s edition will feature entertainment, contests and interactive activities for people of all ages including the opportunity to win Casey’s pizza for a year and meet Seneca Wallace, former Iowa Games athlete, Iowa State football player and NFL quarterback.

Area farmers will be showcased at the Food & Family Fair as they answer questions and distribute complimentary copies of the Iowa Food and Family Cookbook, telling the story of agriculture through family traditions and tried-and-true recipes.

Meanwhile, spectators, guests, athletes and children of all ages can pick up a “Zone Score Card” that will send them through a series of interactive stations to learn about all things food and farming. Iowa FFP partners and event sponsors of stations include the Iowa Beef Industry Council, Iowa Egg Council, Iowa Food Bank Association, Iowa Pork Producers Association, Iowa Select Farms, Iowa Soybean Association, Midwest Dairy Association and Hy-Vee.  Once each booth is visited, participants will turn in the score card to Iowa FFP’s “End Zone” for a chance at top prizes like an iPad Air 2, Casey’s pizza for a year and Adventureland tickets.

National talent will headline the evening’s events including a show by the Olate Dogs, winners of America’s Got Talent. Other family-friendly events include inflatable games, a photo booth and performances by local entertainers.

Following the Food & Family Fair, the Opening Ceremonies will showcase a parade of athletes, keynote speech by Wallace, lighting of the cauldron and fireworks to cap off the night. Admission to the Opening Ceremony is $5 for adults and $2 for children 12 and under, with all proceeds going to the Iowa Food Bank Association to assist with food insecurity across the state. In 2014, ticket sales generated more than $3,000 in donations, or approximately 12,000 meals for hungry families.

For more information and a complete lineup of the evening’s events, visit iowagames.org.



Midwest State Ag Leaders Discuss Issues, Recommendations

Midwest state agriculture officials recently gathered at the Midwest Association of State Departments of Agriculture (MASDA) annual meeting in Madison, Wis., to discuss agriculture issues including endangered species, grain inspection, and antimicrobial resistance and research.

North Dakota Agriculture Commissioner Doug Goehring introduced two policy amendments and two action items for MASDA's recommendation to the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture (NASDA) meeting this fall.

A follow-up to the policy amendment Goehring introduced earlier this year at the NASDA winter policy conference, the two action items "encourage states to promote the implementation of antimicrobial judicious use principles" and "support research for the development of new antimicrobials, and the development of antibody research and therapy."

Goehring pointed out that antimicrobial resistance issues are of great concern to the agriculture community.

"The agriculture community is doing its part to help safeguard the food supply, protect public health, maintain healthy animals and enhance food production systems," Goehring said.

The policy amendments introduced by Goehring focused on federal grain inspections and endangered species. MASDA members unanimously approved both amendments and action items to recommend for consideration at the NASDA meeting.

MASDA is comprised of the state agriculture commissioners, secretaries and directors from North Dakota, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin.



Did You Know ... Beef Research Audio Short

Did you know ... the beef checkoff is creating choices for millennials? Imagine a millennial consumer at 4:30 p.m., driving home and stressing, yet again, about what to feed their families for dinner. They want a dinner that everyone will like; something that is tasty AND healthy. Because this seems to be an ongoing dilemma with busy consumers – especially millennial parents with young families – the checkoff continues to create new recipe concepts that will help these millennial parents increase beef consumption for themselves and their children and families. The four latest concepts were tested among millennial parents, and the winning concepts will be used to create checkoff content online and social channels. Of these new concepts, ‘hiding veggies’ in an everyday meal captured the most attention and excitement from the target group of millennial parents, intriguing them with its healthiness and the somewhat covert solution it provides them. Watch “Pizza with Purpose,” a short checkoff video that demonstrates this concept, and see additional videos like Bowls with Balance and Three Takes on Slow-Cooked Beef.

To learn more about your beef checkoff investment, visit MyBeefCheckoff.com.



 CHS reports earnings of $649.6 million through fiscal 2015 third quarter

CHS Inc. (NASDAQ: CHSCP), the nation's leading farmer-owned cooperative and a global energy, grains and foods company, today reported earnings of $649.6 million for the first three quarters of its 2015 fiscal year.

The earnings attributable to CHS for the period (Sept. 1, 2014 – May 31, 2015) represented a decrease of 26 percent from the $881.7 million reported for the first three quarters of fiscal 2014. Revenues for first nine months of fiscal 2015 were $26.6 billion, down 19 percent from $32.7 billion for the same period a year ago, primarily due to lower average prices for the refined energy products, grains and fertilizer that make up a significant portion of CHS business.

Earnings for the third quarter of fiscal 2015 (March 1– May 31, 2015) were $178.1 million, down 53 percent from $379.5 million for the same period of fiscal 2014. The third quarter of fiscal 2014 included a one-time gain of $108.8 million attributed to the establishment of the Ardent Mills flour milling joint venture in May 2014. Fiscal 2015 third quarter revenues of $8.7 billion declined 28 percent from the same three-month period a year ago.

For the first nine months of fiscal year 2015, Energy segment earnings declined primarily due to significantly reduced refining margins and scheduled maintenance at its McPherson, Kan., refinery, along with, to a lesser extent, decreased propane earnings.

CHS Ag segment earnings through the third quarter also declined. This decrease was attributed to lower earnings from logistics within grain marketing compared with the first three quarters of fiscal 2014, as well as lower grain and wholesale crop nutrients volumes. In addition, through the third quarter of fiscal 2015, CHS retail facilities experienced lower agronomy margins. Earnings for CHS renewable fuels marketing and production operations declined due to lower market prices which resulted in lower marketing commissions; those lower earnings were partially offset by the 2014 acquisition of a Rochelle, Ill., ethanol plant.

CHS reports results for its business services operations and its two food processing-related joint ventures under the Corporate and Other category which reported lower earnings through the third quarter of fiscal 2015 primarily due to the one-time gain in fiscal 2014 associated with the formation of the Ardent Mills milling joint venture.



USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate - July 10, 2015

NOTE: This report adopts U.S. area, yield, and production forecasts for winter wheat, durum, other spring wheat, barley, and oats released today by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). For rice, corn, sorghum, soybeans, and cotton, area estimates reflect the June 30 NASS Acreage report, and methods used to project production are noted on each table. The first survey-based 2015 production forecasts for those crops will be reported by NASS on August 12.

WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 58 million bushels this month on larger beginning stocks and production. A 10-million-bushel decrease in imports is partially offsetting. Production is raised on increased spring wheat production that more than offsets decreases for Hard Red Winter, Soft Red Winter, and White Wheat. Overall yields for spring wheat are forecast above average. Feed and residual use for all wheat in 2015/16 is raised 5 million bushels to 200 million on the larger crop. All wheat exports for 2015/16 are raised 25 million bushels to 950 million on increased U.S. supplies and reduced wheat production in Canada. These exports would be up 11 percent from the low level of 2014/15, but still well below the 5-year average. Ending stocks are raised 28 million bushels to 842 million, the largest since the 2010/11. Despite higher stocks, the season-average price is raised 35 cents to $4.75 to $5.75 per bushel on recently higher cash and futures prices and the rising outlook for corn prices, particularly in the summer months when a majority of this year’s wheat crop will be  marketed.

Global wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 12.1 million tons primarily on increased beginning stocks. China beginning stocks are raised 11.4 million tons on reductions to feed and residual use. China wheat feeding fell substantially starting with the 2013/14 market year as wheat prices became uncompetitive with corn. Partly offsetting is a 2.0-million-ton decrease for 2015/16 Australia beginning stocks mostly on a 1.6-million-ton revision to 2013/14 production as reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Foreign 2015/16 production is lowered slightly as increased production in the Black Sea region is more than offset by reductions for EU and Canada. Total world production is raised to 722.0 million tons; down from last year’s record but still the second largest.

Global wheat consumption for 2015/16 is lowered 5.4 million tons primarily on the reduced feed and residual use for China. Canada and EU wheat feed and residual use are reduced 0.7 and 0.5 million tons, respectively. Partly offsetting is a 1.4-million-ton increase in India food use. Global wheat exports are lowered 0.3 million tons to 158.1 million, down nearly 4 percent from the previous year. The largest import reduction is for Iran, which is lowered 1.0 million tons on large supplies. EU imports are raised 1.0 million tons with the smaller crop and more expected imports of feed-quality wheat from Ukraine. China imports are raised 0.8 million tons on increased purchases. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons each for Russia and Ukraine on larger crops and less competition from EU. The largest exporter reductions are 1.5 million tons for EU and 1.0 million tons for Canada, both on smaller crops. Global ending stocks for 2015/16 are raised 17.4 million tons to a record 219.8 million tons, mostly reflecting the 17.2-million-ton increase in China.

COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2015/16 U.S. feed grain supplies are lowered this month with reductions in corn beginning stocks and production. Corn beginning stocks for 2015/16 are down 97 million bushels as increases in 2014/15 feed and residual use, use in ethanol production, and exports more than offset a small increase in imports. Corn production for 2015/16 is projected down 100 million bushels reflecting the lower planted and harvested areas from the June 30 Acreage. Sorghum, barley, and oats production are forecast higher based on the higher areas reported for all three crops and higher yields for barley and oats in today’s Crop Production.

Projected 2015/16 U.S. corn use is lowered with reductions for feed and residual use and exports more than offsetting higher expected corn use in ethanol production. Projected feed and residual use is reduced 25 million bushels with lower production, higher expected supplies of distillers’ grains, and the higher price outlook. Exports are lowered 25 million bushels with increased competition expected from larger supplies in Brazil. Use for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels with higher forecasts for 2015 and 2016 gasoline consumption in the latest outlook from the Energy Information Administration. The higher gasoline consumption outlook also boosts expected 2014/15 corn use for ethanol by 25 million bushels. This month’s higher projections for 2014/15 corn feed and residual use and exports reflect the latest indications of disappearance from the June 1 stocks estimate and reported export shipments and sales to date.

Other important 2015/16 feed grain changes include higher projected sorghum use, particularly for exports, and higher projected feed and residual use for sorghum and barley. Ending stocks for sorghum, barley, and oats are all projected higher reflecting larger crops and supplies this month. Corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected 172 million bushels lower. Projected season-average prices received by producers for 2015/16 are higher for all the feed grains with corn up 25 cents to $3.45 to $4.05 per bushel. This is up 5 cents per bushel, at the midpoint, from this month’s higher forecast for 2014/15. At $3.60 to $3.80 per bushel, the 2014/15 corn price range is raised 5 cents on both ends.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected down 4.3 million tons with much of the reduction from lower corn beginning stocks in the United States. Foreign coarse grain beginning stocks are also lower with Brazil corn stocks down 1.5 million tons. Brazil corn exports for 2014/15 are increased, outpacing this month’s increase in 2014/15 production. Globally, corn production for 2015/16 is lowered 2.2 million tons with reductions in the United States and EU only partly offset by increases for Brazil and China. EU corn production is lowered 2.4 million tons as recent excessive heat and developing dryness across major growing areas reduces yield prospects. Corn production is lowered 0.3 million tons for neighboring Serbia where heat and dryness are also concerns. Brazil corn production is raised 2.0 million tons for 2015/16 with higher expected area for the crop that will be planted in the coming months. China corn production is raised 1.0 million tons also on higher area.  Global barley and oats production for 2015/16 are lowered with reductions for EU and Canada.

Global 2015/16 coarse grain consumption is raised 0.9 million tons, partly reflecting higher expected  sorghum feeding and imports for China with the larger U.S. crop. Corn feeding is raised for EU supported by larger imports as domestic grain supplies decline. World barley consumption is lowered with reductions for EU, Australia, and Canada on tighter global supplies. Brazil corn exports are raised for 2014/15 and 2015/16, up 2.5 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively. EU corn imports are raised in both years. Global 2015/16 corn ending stocks are projected 5.2 million tons lower mostly on the reduction expected for the United States. Corn ending stocks are also expected lower for EU and Brazil.


OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 115.1 million tons, up 1.0 million tons mainly on higher soybean production. Soybean production is projected at 3,885 million bushels, up 35 million due to increased harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 84.4 million acres in the Acreage report, is 0.7 million above the June forecast. The soybean yield is projected at 46.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month. Despite increased production, soybean supplies are reduced 40 million bushels on account of lower beginning stocks. Soybean crush is projected at 1,840 million bushels, up 10 million reflecting increased domestic soybean meal disappearance in line with adjustments for 2014/15. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 425 million bushels, down 50 million.

U.S. soybean crush for 2014/15 is raised 15 million bushels to 1,830 million on increased domestic soybean meal use. Soybean exports are projected at 1,825 million bushels, up 15 million reflecting shipments and outstanding sales through early July. Seed and residual use are each raised based on indications from the Acreage and Grain Stocks reports, respectively. Soybean ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 255 million bushels, down 75 million from last month.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2015/16 is projected at $8.50 to $10.00 per bushel, up 25 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $315 to $355 per short ton, up
10 dollars on both ends. The soybean oil price projection is unchanged at 30.5 to 33.5 cents per pound.

Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 531.8 million tons, down fractionally from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 318.9 million tons, up 1.3 million mostly due to
higher production in the United States and Bolivia. U.S. peanut production is raised 0.2 million tons on higher harvested area as reported in the Acreage report. Rapeseed production is reduced for Canada with lower yields more than offsetting increased planted area reported by Statistics Canada. Rapeseed and sunflowerseed production are also reduced for EU on lower yields resulting from dry weather and above average temperatures that persisted through early July. Other changes include reduced rapeseed production for China and Russia, and reduced soybean production for Turkey. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 102.2 million tons, down 2.4 million mostly reflecting lower soybean stocks in the United States and reduced rapeseed stocks in Australia, Canada, and EU.  South America soybean stock changes are mostly offsetting.


LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
The forecasts for total meat production for 2015 and 2016 are raised from last month. Beef production  for 2015 is lowered as fed cattle slaughter in the second quarter is reduced. In addition, relatively good forage conditions and higher feed prices are expected to slow the pace of placements until later in 2015, reducing available supplies of fed cattle for slaughter in late 2015. However, these large placements will lead to higher marketings and slaughter in 2016 and the beef production forecast is raised. The pork production forecast for 2015 is raised. Pig crop data in the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report supported a higher third-quarter 2015 slaughter forecast. The 2016 forecast is raised slightly. Broiler production for 2015 and 2016 is raised based on hatchery data and continued increases in bird weights. Turkey production is reduced for 2015 based on hatchery data. Egg production for 2015 is reduced slightly as lower table egg production more than offsets an expected increase in hatching egg production.

Forecasts for beef imports for 2015 and 2016 are raised as demand for processing grade beef remains strong; the export forecast is reduced slightly on trade data to date. Pork imports for 2015 and 2016 are reduced and the export forecasts are raised. Broiler exports for 2015 are raised on improve demand and large supplies; no change is made to 2016. Turkey exports are reduced for 2015 as supplies are tight; no change is made to 2016.

Cattle prices for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month on weaker demand and larger supplies of competing meats. Hog prices are higher for 2015 and 2016 as both export and domestic demand has improved. Broiler prices are slightly lower for 2015 on weaker June prices but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged. Turkey prices for 2015 and 2016 are raised on tighter supplies. Egg prices for 2015 are raised on tight supplies and prices to date but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged.

The milk production forecast for 2015 is raised on a slightly more rapid increase in cow numbers and milk per cow. However, higher expected feed prices and weaker milk prices during late 2015 and 2016 are expected to temper the rate of growth in production and the 2016 production forecast is lowered. at basis exports are reduced as competition in world markets is expected to be strong in both 2015 and 2016 and domestic butter demand is expected to absorb much of the available supply. Skim-solids exports are raised from last month as weaker nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices allow the United States to remain competitive in export markets. Fat basis and skim-solids imports are raised for both 2015 and 2016 on expectations of abundant global supplies of dairy products and continued strength in U.S. domestic demand for butter and cheese.

Cheese and butter prices for 2015 are raised from last month on continued domestic demand strength, but NDM and whey prices are forecast lower as the supplies of those products are abundant and prices decline to maintain competitiveness in export markets. For 2016, the cheese price is unchanged, but the butter price is raised on expectations of robust domestic demand. NDM and whey prices are reduced as lower prices are expected to maintain export competitiveness. For 2015 and 2016 Class III prices are reduced on lower whey prices. Class IV prices for both years are reduced on lower NDM prices. The all milk price is forecast at $17.05 to $17.35 per cwt for 2015 and $17.00 to $18.00 per cwt for 2016.



President Obama Adds One-Million More Acres to Increased Red Tape and Regulation

The abuse of power continues as President Obama designates three more national monuments under the Antiques Act. The Berryessa Snow Mountain in California, Waco Mammoth in Texas, and Basin and Range in Nevada together add over one-million acres to federal jurisdiction. With these designations, President Obama will have used the Antiquities Act to establish or expand 19 national monuments, putting more than 260 million total acres of land and water under restrictive management during his presidency.

“Expansive and sweeping designations in Nevada and California today, provide just the latest examples of the continued abuse of power by President Obama,” said Brenda Richards, Public Lands Council president and Idaho rancher. “The President is charging forward with expansive designations in an attempt to leave behind some type of legacy after his term ends, but what he will be known for is the mismanagement of natural resources, economic hardship in rural communities, and putting farmers and ranchers out of business. He is replacing the people who do the best job of managing our natural resources with Washington D.C. bureaucrats implementing one-size-fits-all management practices to land across the country.”

Under the 1906 Antiquities Act, the President has power to declare monument designations, which comes with added layers of bureaucracy and restrictive management provisions in the name of environmental protections. In similar fashion to President Obama, Richards added, President Clinton designated more national monuments during his presidency than any other presidents at the time; decisions that have wreaked havoc on the local economies by limiting productive multiple-uses. 

Billy Flournoy, President of the California Cattlemen’s Association added that despite the claims of the Administration, grazing is at great risk with the 331,000 acres encompassed in the Berryessa Snow Mountain designation.

“Even where the Administration has historically assured the ranching community that grazing will not be curtailed as a result of national monument designation, just as they are now, we have nevertheless seen ranchers pushed out and grazing significantly decrease," Flournoy said. "In California, perhaps the most egregious and illustrative example was with the management of the Carrizo Plain National Monument, where grazing was once a thriving industry.”

As Rep. Amodei (R-Nev.) has dubbed the Nevada designation, the “Hairy Berry National Monument,” is reportedly a deal struck between Senator Harry Reid and President Obama, without any consult from the local level.

“Decisions regarding land management must come from the ground up,” said JJ Goicoechea, Nevada Cattlemen’s Association past-president. “To claim the designation is to protect the artwork ‘City’, an area approximately the size of the National Mall in D.C., by putting 700,000 acres under designation is absurd. When you disregard both the legislative process and the input from local entities, it is a clear indication that the best interest of the land is not a factor. This heavy-handed, I-know-best mentality is threatening our livelihood and our ability to produce the food and fiber for our country.”

The livestock industry will continue to call on Congress to end this abuse of power and wholesale reshaping of the West by presidential fiat through modernization of the Antiquities Act. Congress should immediately pass legislation reiterating the original intent of this Act so special interest environmental groups will not continue getting their way with a friendly administration in locking up the West without public input or approval by Congress.



Record Number of Farmers and Ranchers Certified Under 2014 Farm Bill Conservation Compliance

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that over 98.2 percent of producers have met the 2014 Farm Bill requirement to certify conservation compliance to qualify for crop insurance premium support payments.

Implementing the 2014 Farm Bill provisions for conservation compliance is expected to extend conservation provisions for an additional 1.5 million acres of highly erodible lands and 1.1 million acres of wetlands, which will reduce soil erosion, enhance water quality, and create wildlife habitat.

“This overwhelming response is a product of USDA’s extensive outreach and the commitment of America’s farmers to be stewards of the land,” said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. “By investing in both American farmers and the health of our productive lands, we are ensuring future generations have access to fertile soil, healthy food supplies, and a strong rural economy.”

USDA has gone to extraordinary lengths to ensure that every impacted producer knew of the June 1, 2015 deadline to certify their conservation compliance. For example, all 2015 crop insurance contracts included conservation compliance notifications. USDA has sent out more than 50,000 reminder letters and postcards to individual producers, made over 25,000 phone calls, conducted informational meetings and training sessions for nearly 6,000 stakeholders across the country, including in major specialty crop producing states with affected commodity groups, and more. Since December 2014, USDA collaborated with crop insurers to ensure they had updated lists for agents to continue contacting producers to also remind them of the filing deadline.

Of the small number of producers who have not certified their conservation compliance, USDA records suggest the majority are no longer farming or may have filed forms with discrepancies that can still be reconciled. The Farm Service Agency is proactively reaching back out to all of these producers before their sales closing date and working with individuals facing extenuating circumstances who have not filed the form in order to assist them with certifying compliance.

“I’ve asked the agencies to contact the producers again before their sales closing date,” said Vilsack. “I want to ensure that every producer that turned in an AD-1026 by June 1, 2015, knows they can still make corrections and remain eligible for premium support.”

USDA is providing additional flexibility to help the newly insured producers to certify their conservation compliance. For example, producers, who began farming or ranching after June 1, or producers who have not participated in USDA programs prior to June 1, can file an exemption to the conservation compliance certification for reinsurance year 2016 and still be eligible for the crop insurance premium support.

The Highly Erodible Land Conservation and Wetland Conservation Certification form (AD-1026) is available at local USDA Service Centers or online at www.fsa.usda.gov/AD1026form.



Vilsack Announces the Selection of Dr. Robert Johansson as USDA Chief Economist

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack today announced the selection of Dr. Robert Johansson as U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Chief Economist, effective July 12. Dr. Johansson has served as USDA's acting chief economist since Jan. 3, 2014, and as Deputy Chief Economist since 2012. He joined USDA in 2001.

"I am pleased that Dr. Johansson's leadership will continue to guide informed decision making at USDA to benefit American agriculture," said Vilsack. "Dr. Johansson is highly respected for his analysis and experienced insight, and extremely well prepared for the demands of this position."

As Chief Economist, Dr. Johansson is responsible for USDA's agricultural forecasts and projections and for advising the Secretary of Agriculture on economic implications of programs, regulations, and legislative proposals. His responsibilities include the Office of the Chief Economist, the World Agricultural Outlook Board, the Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit analysis, the Global Change Program Office, and the Office of Energy Policy and New Uses. He also serves as Chairman of the Federal Crop Insurance Board of Directors.

During his federal career, Dr. Johansson also worked as an economist at USDA's Economic Research Service, as well as in the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs at the Office of Management and Budget, and at the Congressional Budget Office. In 2011, he was appointed senior economist for energy, environment, and agriculture on the President's Council of Economic Advisers where he also participated on the White House Rural Council and the President's Council on Jobs and Competitiveness.

Dr. Johansson holds a Ph.D. and a master's degree in agricultural economics from the University of Minnesota and a Bachelor of Arts in economics from Northwestern University. He served with the U.S. Peace Corps from 1990 to 1995 as an extension agent in Gabon and the Democratic Republic of Congo. His research has spanned a wide range of issues, including biofuels policy, water quality and quantity policies, regulatory economics, food security, and regional modeling of agricultural systems.