Friday September 4 Ag News

Terrytown Restaurant Awarded Best Burger in Nebraska

Goonie’s Kozy Keno Bar in Terrytown took home the top honor at this year’s Nebraska’s Best Burger contest hosted by the Nebraska Beef Council. The judging event, held at the Nebraska State Fair in Grand Island, featured the top five hamburgers in the state as nominated by the public during an online poll in August. 

“We had a lot of fun with the contest this year,” said Adam Wegner, Director of Marketing for the Nebraska Beef Council. “The addition of the judging event at the Nebraska State Fair really added to the excitement of the contest and created a great way to provide some exposure for these restaurants and the quality hamburgers they serve every day. We congratulate Goonie’s on their win and thank all of the contestants for their dedication to serving high quality beef in Nebraska.”

The winning Goonie Burger featured an all-beef patty, grilled onions, cheese and a secret signature sauce made in-house by the owners Paul and Lisa Guhn.

The contest runner-up award was presented to The Union Bar from Gering followed by a third place finish for Sozo American Cuisine in Kearney. The Cellar Bar & Grill in Kearney took home fourth place followed by Stella’s Bar & Grill in Bellevue.

During the judging event, each restaurant had the opportunity to prepare their signature hamburger for a panel of four judges. The hamburgers were judged on flavor, texture and proper cooking temperature. Other scoring categories included appearance and food safety.

Goonie’s was presented the 2015 Best Burger trophy and a cash prize of $1,000 for their first place finish. The other contestants also received cash prizes and recognition plaques for their accomplishments.

Visit www.nebeef.org for more information on the contest and the work of the Nebraska Beef Council.



OPTIONS FOR LATE SUMMER PASTURE WEEDS
Bruce Anderson, NE Extension Forage Specialist

               How does your pasture look today?  Is it full of weeds?  Let’s discuss your options to minimize this problem.

               Weeds have exploded recently in many pastures.  Plants like ragweed, ironweed, goldenrod, and vervain are abundant everywhere.  Where did we go wrong and what can you do now?

               Abundant summer rains stimulated growth of these weeds.  Even seemingly well-managed pastures have problems, often in areas that were grazed while soils were wet and soft.  Cattle trampling is these spots opened areas for weeds to get started.  Only pastures or areas in pastures with thick, relatively tall grass stands have few weeds.

               Spraying many weeds now does little good.  Many weeds are too large to kill so herbicides might only reduce seed production and make pastures a bit more attractive.  Shredding would actually work better to reduce weed seeds if it’s not already too late.

               Two other approaches are more important for long-term weed control.  First, do more rotational grazing next year to improve the health, vigor, and density of your grass.  And as you rotate, leave more residue behind when moving animals to a new pasture to maintain higher competition.  Healthy, competitive grass stands are essential to reduce weed populations economically.

               Second, target herbicide applications for when they will do the most good.  Late May to early June usually is most effective with most of our pasture herbicides.  Most perennial weeds, and many annuals, are sensitive to chemicals in June.  Weed control, along with good grazing, will thicken your grass stands so herbicides won’t be needed as often in the future.

               Don’t let weeds take over your pasture, but don’t spend money controlling them needlessly.  A good plan will work best.



USSEC Organizes 12th Southeast Asia U.S. Agriculture Cooperators Conference

USSEC, together with the U.S. Grains Council (USGC) and the Foreign Agricultural Service ‐ United States Department of Agriculture (FAS‐USDA), organized the 12th Southeast Asia U.S. Agriculture Cooperators Conference in Siem Reap, Cambodia from Aug. 25-28. This year’s conference theme was “Opportunities for an Industry in Transition,” and highlighted the changes and challenges faced by agribusinesses today. Economic and population growth, as well as growing affluence in the region, continues to fuel demand for agricultural imports, and the proliferation of trade agreements in the last 15 years has had a major impact on international trade and investment.

 The event offered a mix of social and networking activities as participants learned about how production and supply chains will make adjustments to meet a new market environment caused by record supplies, the coming together of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economic community by the end of this year and a lackluster Chinese economy.
Past USB chairman Jim Call provides a crop outlook and grower perspectives to conference attendees

USSEC vice chairman and American Soybean Association (ASA) director Jim Miller (from Belden, NE) presented, “U.S. Soy Sustainability Assurance – Soybean Production Practices” and past United Soybean Board (USB) chairman and Minnesota Soybean Research and Promotion Council director Jim Call discussed, “U.S. Grower Perspectives: 2015‐2016 U.S. Soybean Crop Outlook.” Gerald Smith, Senior Agricultural Attaché, FAS-USDA, U.S. Embassy, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam welcomed attendees. USSEC CEO Jim Sutter provided opening remarks and USSEC consultant and economist John Baize gave an overview of global oilseeds. “Soy Dynamics in the Asia Subcontinent” was presented by USSEC Country Director – India Vijay Anand, and USSEC consultant Jan van Eys discussed, “Global Poultry Perspectives: Development in the Feed Sector.” USSEC Southeast Asia Technical Director – Aquaculture Lukas Manomaitis talked about opportunities for growth and investment in global aquaculture.

Conference participants represented an estimated soy buying volume of 3.7 million metric tons (MMT) of soybeans and 7.4 MMT of soybean meal.



Iowa Soybean Association board of directors elects 2016 officers

A farmer from Osage took the gavel as president of the Iowa Soybean Association (ISA) while six farmers were elected to leadership positions at the association’s board of directors meeting held Sept. 3.

Wayne Fredericks of Osage took his seat as president. Farmers elected were:
    Rolland Schnell, Newton — president-elect
    Jeff Jorgenson, Sidney — treasurer
    Bill Shipley, Nodaway — secretary
    Lindsay Greiner, Keota — executive committee

ISA directors also elected Fredericks and Dean Coleman, Humboldt, to represent Iowa on the American Soybean Association (ASA) board of directors.

“Iowa soybean farmers look to these leaders to manage their investments, whether it be in research to find solutions to the latest production issues or in market development to find new uses or customers for our production,” said Fredericks. “These leaders also engage in the policy making process to protect our freedom to operate. At the state, national and international levels, these leaders will work on behalf of Iowa Soybean farmers to enhance their competitiveness and bring value to their farm operations.”



Current National Drought Summary
droughtmonitor.unl.edu

During the past 7-days, heavy rain (in excess of 2 inches) fell across portions of the Southern Atlantic Coast region (especially the Florida peninsula, and the coasts of both Georgia and the Carolinas), the coastal ranges and Cascades of the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, Maine, and the southern Alaska Panhandle. Heavy rain also fell in portions of east-central Puerto Rico, in association with what was Tropical Storm Erika. Larger-scale areas of moderate precipitation (0.5-2 inches) were reported in the Southwest, remaining portions of the coastal ranges and Cascades of the Pacific Northwest, portions of both the Rockies and Great Plains, the north-central Mississippi Valley, the interior Southeast, parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania, and New England. Moderate precipitation was also reported across interior Alaska and the Seward Peninsula, the northern Alaska Panhandle, and much of the remainder of Puerto Rico.

Northern and Central Plains
Slight adjustments were made to the D0 depiction in eastern and central Montana this week, based on recent rainfall. In Nebraska, three relatively small areas of abnormal dryness (D0) were introduced this week, based on increasing dryness. In the Panhandle, September is typically the time to plant hard red winter wheat. Warm, dry conditions are a concern in getting crop sown with good seed bed moisture and established with ample time for optimal root development prior to hardening off before the arrival of winter. In south-central Nebraska (Hall and Adams Counties), there were reports of dryland corn and beans rapidly deteriorating. Abnormal dryness (D0) was also added to extreme southeastern Nebraska (Pawnee and Richardson Counties). In northwestern, north-central, and central Kansas, D0 coverage was expanded based on 30-day and 60-day PNPs and the CPC 3-month SPI.

Upper Great Lakes region and Midwest
In northeastern Minnesota, southwestern Wisconsin, and northeastern Iowa, recent 1-3 inch rains resulted in either a one-category upgrade, or a reduction in size of a particular drought category. The moderate drought (D1) area in southwestern Wisconsin was retained north of the Wisconsin River, due to persistent deficits of 3-6 inches since June 1st.



July another Difficult Month for U.S. Meat Exports

Economic headwinds continued to slow U.S. pork and beef exports in July, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). July pork exports totaled 166,604 metric tons (mt), down 4 percent from a year ago and the smallest since January. Export value was $443 million, down 23 percent from a year ago and the lowest monthly total in more than four years. For January through July, pork exports totaled 1.25 million mt (down 5 percent) valued at $3.32 billion (down 17 percent).

For U.S. beef, July exports totaled 91,955 mt, down 10 percent from a year ago and the smallest volume since 2010. Export value was $555.7 million, down 11 percent. For January through July, beef export volume was down 10 percent to 619,064 mt. Export value was $3.8 billion, 2 percent below last year’s pace.

“Market access issues and the sustained strength of the U.S. dollar continue to make 2015 a very tough year for red meat exports,” said Philip M. Seng, USMEF president and CEO. “On the beef side, exports are also constrained by lower production, but the herd rebuilding that is currently limiting our beef supplies is overdue, and will pay dividends in 2016 and beyond.”

Closure of the Russian market to the top three global pork suppliers has not only cut off direct U.S. exports to Russia but also caused an influx of European and Canadian pork into key markets in Asia, Oceania and Latin America. Compounded by larger production in the major exporting countries, pork prices have been pressured in most major markets, with the exception of China. Even though the record spread between prices in China and the U.S. indicates large export opportunities, limited access for U.S. pork means the benefits are primarily accruing to European suppliers. U.S. beef’s lack of access to the Chinese market continues to result in missed opportunities in China and impacts the price U.S. beef cuts command in other Asian markets.

China’s mid-August devaluation of the yuan sent currencies of several key importing countries and large competitors lower versus the U.S. dollar. For example, the Korean won, the Taiwanese dollar and the Mexican peso all weakened significantly. As for competitors, the Australian and New Zealand dollars have been trading at levels not seen since 2009 and the Brazilian real is at its weakest point in more than a decade.

“U.S. exports were already facing a very challenging situation with regard to exchange rates, and that situation worsened over the past three weeks,” Seng explained. “This means we must work even harder to differentiate U.S. meat based on attributes other than price by educating international buyers on the quality and value our products deliver. This has always been a strong focus for USMEF, but it’s more important than ever that we establish and maintain customer loyalty in our key markets.”

Pork export volumes strong to Mexico, Korea; Latin America shows improvement
Pork export volume to Mexico remained strong through July, up 6 percent from a year ago to 411,425 mt. Export value was down 19 percent to $717.6 million, reflecting significantly lower prices for hams and other items commonly shipped to Mexico. The market has also seen an infusion of Canadian pork due to the closure of Russia (formerly Canada's third-largest market) and weakness of the Canadian dollar.

January-July exports to Korea were up 39 percent in volume (115,892 mt) and 31 percent in value ($338.3 million). July exports were still up sharply from a year ago but were the lowest since September, as the market may be cooling due to growing pork inventories.

Exports to Central and South America continued to gain momentum in July, as demand strengthened in key destinations Colombia, Honduras and Chile. January-July exports to the region increased 4 percent from a year ago to 70,731 mt, while value was down 4 percent to $180.4 million.

Japan remains the leading value market for U.S. pork, but exports continued to reflect sluggish demand, with large inventories lingering from the huge imports of European pork last year. January-July exports fell 13 percent from a year ago in volume (254,251 mt) and 19 percent in value ($972.8 million).

Through the first seven months of the year, pork exports accounted for 25 percent of total production and 21 percent for muscle cuts only (down from 28 percent and 23 percent, respectively, in the same period last year). Export value averaged $47.14 per head slaughtered, down 30 percent year-over-year and 15 percent lower than in 2013.

Bright spots for beef exports include Korea, Taiwan, Caribbean
Beef exports to Korea held up well in July despite a Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak that slowed restaurant traffic severely in June and created concerns about swollen beef inventories. For January through July, exports to Korea were up 11 percent year-over-year in volume (73,236 mt) and 12 percent in value ($498.2 million). Shipments to Taiwan were also strong in July, pushing exports in the first seven months of the year to 20,387 mt (up 5 percent from a year ago) valued at $183.3 million (up 13 percent).

July beef exports slumped in other Asian markets, most notably in Japan and Hong Kong. For January through July, exports to Japan were down 5 percent in volume (129,985 mt) and 6 percent in value ($806.5 million). Though it is still the leading destination for U.S. beef, exports to Japan continue to feel pressure from the lower duties on Australian beef (due to the Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement implemented earlier this year) and the weak Australian dollar. July exports to Hong Kong were the lowest since 2013, before the U.S. regained access for bone-in cuts. Through July, 2015 exports to Hong Kong were down 20 percent in volume (65,169 mt) and 16 percent in value ($477 million) from a year ago.

Beef exports to Mexico held up relatively well through July despite the weak peso, falling 8 percent from a year ago in volume (125,780 mt) and 2 percent in value ($625.7 million). Smaller Western Hemisphere markets performing well in 2015 include the Dominican Republic (up 28 percent in volume to 4,205 mt and 27 percent in value to $32.6 million) and Guatemala (2,554 mt, up 23 percent, valued at $15.3 million, up 22 percent).

January-July beef exports accounted for 13 percent of total production and 10 percent for muscle cuts only (down from 14 percent and 11 percent, respectively, in the same period last year). Export value averaged $289.41 per head of fed slaughter, up 4 percent year-over-year.

Momentum for lamb exports short-lived
U.S. lamb exports had shown improvement in June but slumped again in July, dropping 20 percent from a year ago to just 752 mt. July export value plunged 50 percent to $1.5 million. For January through July, exports were down 14 percent in volume (5,507 mt) and 31 percent in value ($11.5 million) from a year ago. Exports achieved promising growth in Hong Kong and some Caribbean destinations, but these results were offset by declines in most other markets.



National Injunction Denied;  WOTUS Rule Stays in Effect in 37 States

An injunction blocking implementation of the waters of the United States rule does not apply to all 50 states and instead will remain in effect in just 13 states, the U.S. District Court for the District of North Dakota said in a ruling Friday.

The American Farm Bureau Federation and other groups wanted to expand the injunction nationally after a court blocked the rule in North Dakota, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Idaho, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, South Dakota, Wyoming and New Mexico.

The court ruling is a partial victory for EPA and the Army Corps of Engineers in allowing the waters of the U.S. rule to go into effect in 37 states.

U.S. District Judge Ralph Erickson noted the North Dakota district wanted to respect the decision-making authority of other courts that have ruled on the waters of the U.S. issue, as well as respect the states that may want the Clean Water Rule implemented.

In the ruling, Erickson said it wouldn't be prudent to issue a national injunction because of the various ongoing cases challenging the rule.

So far four courts have denied preliminary injunctions in cases attempting to stop the rule. Two courts denied preliminary injunctions because the courts found they lacked jurisdiction. The remaining two courts deferred decisions until a judicial panel for multi-district litigation decides on consolidation of the district court cases.



More Maps Show how EPA’s Overreach

The American Farm Bureau Federation today released still more maps that show how the Environmental Protection Agency intends to radically expand its jurisdiction over land use via the newly issued Waters of the United States rule. Implementation of the rule in at least 13 states was recently halted by a court in North Dakota pending further hearings.

The maps prepared by Geosyntec Consulting show the dramatic expansion of EPA’s regulatory reach across wide swaths of land in Missouri, Oklahoma, New York and Wisconsin.

Nearly all of the states’ total acreage would fall under EPA scrutiny. Landowners have no reliable way to know which of the water and land within that area will be regulated, yet they must still conform their activities to the new law.

“The EPA’s new rule places farmers in the agency’s crosshairs for using the same safe, scientifically sound and federally approved crop protection tools they’ve used for years,” AFBF President Bob Stallman said. “This rule creates a new set of tools for harassing farmers in court, and does it all with language that is disturbingly vague and subject to abuse by future regulators. It’s worth saying again: The EPA needs to withdraw this rule and start over.”

Maps detailing EPA’s overreach in Missouri, Montana, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin can be found here: http://www.fb.org/issues/wotus/resources/. 



Making Better Bacon—Yes, it’s Possible

Just when you thought it couldn't get any better, improved bacon could soon be on its way. Bacon is one of the most popular cuts of pork, and finding a way to deliver restaurants and consumers an even better product is the focus of research at Kansas State University.

Terry Houser, an associate professor in the K-State Department of Animal Sciences and Industry, is exploring what level of pork belly fat saturation will result in longer shelf life and better flavor. Currently, bacon used in the food service sector, which includes restaurants, is stored frozen but is not vacuum packaged, he said. This method can lead to off-flavors in meat with higher levels of unsaturated fat.

Houser and his team are studying the influence a pig’s iodine level—a measure of fat saturation—has on shelf life value of bacon. He said if bacon fat is too unsaturated, it could cause the fat to be soft and undesirable to the consumer. Also, unsaturated fat causes problems with slicing the bellies once they are cooked and smoked.

The theory behind this research, Houser said, is that pigs with relatively high iodine levels result in problems with bacon quality from those pigs’ bellies.

“Pigs with relatively high iodine levels have a more unsaturated fat in the belly, which means those bellies will be softer and more prone to increased rates of lipid oxidation,” Houser said.

Increased rates of lipid oxidation have been linked to greater occurrence of rancid flavors in meat products, he explained. Additionally, soft bellies are challenging to slice with commercial meat processing equipment and may result in lower slicing yields for the bacon manufacturer.

“We wanted to see what the effects freezing has on lipid oxidation, or off-flavor development in those bacon products,” Houser said. “The results showed us that bacon is very unstable once it is in a frozen storage, in a HRI (hotel, restaurant and institutional) type of packaging system.”

Houser and his team’s on-going research to create better bacon will explore ways to identify bacon that is higher in unsaturated fat and how to make the fat more stable in frozen storage.



ASA Pushes for Tax Extenders Package Including Biodiesel, Section 179

The American Soybean Association (ASA) signed on to a tax extenders coalition letter this week, supporting several priorities for soy growers, including extension of the biodiesel tax credit, the higher Section 179 expensing limits and the continuation of the 50 percent bonus depreciation for equipment purchases.

The Senate Finance Committee passed a tax extenders package that’s awaiting consideration by the full Senate. The House Ways & Means Committee passed individual bills addressing some of the expired tax provisions, but has given no indication of their timetable for considering a broader package.

More than 700 organizations signed the coalition letter.




FSA Will Make Sequestered Cuts to Program Payments

Art Barnaby, Ag Economist from Kansas State University has learned that program payment will be cut due to sequestration. All of the payments will suffer a sequestered cut of 7.3% for 2014/15 and 2015/16 payments.  The sequestered cut for 2016/17 is 6.8%.

More details about this can be found a letter written below by Barnaby in response to an ag lender.

Dear Ag Lender,

Thanks for the heads up.  I had not seen anything about sequestered payment cuts.

I called the state FSA office for Kansas and received the same story.  All of the payments will suffer a sequestered cut of 7.3% for 2014/15 and 2015/16 payments.  The sequestered cut for 2016/17 is 6.8%.

A Washington contact says no decision has been made by USDA.  “She suspects USDA is arguing with OMB over which number to use (FY14:  7.2%; FY15: 7.3%; FY16: 6.8%).  Recall, the Administration has some discretion in how it is applied; generally based on when they consider payments to be obligated.”  I have not found any formal announcement from the Secretary’s Office, but it appears to me the decision is final.

Notice that the payment cut is smaller for 2016/17 when the 5-year Olympic average price for corn and soybeans, used to set the ARC-CO guarantee, is expected to be lower.  The Olympic average wheat price will not decline until the following year.  While the percentage cut is “small”, when applied to a national program the cut will be in the millions.

The key is when the FSA is “obligated”.   Because farmers must sign-up for the ARC-CO and PLC programs before September 30, 2015 for the 2014/15 and 2015/16 crops, FSA considers that payment (if any) to be “obligated” in Fiscal Year 2015 (FY15) and the 7.3% sequestered cut applies.  FY15 started on October 1, 2014 and ends on September 30, 2016 or the final sign-up date.  FSA will start the sign-up for 2016/17 crop on December 1, 2015 and it ends on September 30, 2016.   The 2016/17 crop is considered “obligated” in FY16 so the 6.8% cut will apply.  Also the sequestered cut will be applied after the payment limit.  If they didn’t apply the cut until after the payment limit is applied, then big farmers would take no reduction.

This sequestered reduction will need to be applied to the ARC-CO and PLC payments that are calculated with the KSU payment calculator for all USA counties and the map that covers Kansas only.  The payment that is calculated is for payment acres only and does not include 15% of the base acres or planted acres with no base.  The KSU estimated payment result will need to be reduced by 7.3% to generate the payment, if any, that farmers will be paid this October.  So farmers will need to multiple the KSU estimated commodity payment by 92.7% (100%-7.3%) to get a final estimate per payment acre.

We are discussing if it is worth the effort to change the code in the calculator since it is just an estimate or just leave it to farmers to apply the cut.  If you have a strong opinion, you may send your comments to Rich Llewelyn (rvl@ksu.edu), because he will make any changes.

The sequestered cut does not apply to CRP contracts or crop insurance.  In addition, crop insurance covers all planted acres including acres with no base.  This reduction in FSA payments may be a consideration for the level of crop insurance to purchase on winter wheat that closes on September 30.



Soy Growers Express Concerns with EPA’s Pollinator Health Proposal

Soy growers are concerned the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) proposal to improve pollinator health could have significant adverse consequences for growers with little guarantee of improvements.

The American Soybean Association (ASA) submitted comments to EPA last week and underscored concerns with the proposal this week as a member of the Pesticide Policy Coalition (PPC).

While ASA supports programs to improve pollinator health, concerns include EPA’s “one size fits all” approach limiting flexibility agricultural producers need in some pest control situations and  state managed pollinator protection plans (MP3s) need to be developed with significant grower involvement which will require more time and resources than what EPA appears ready to provide.

The comments submitted by PPC also state that EPA has not followed its procedures and policies to guarantee that regulatory actions will be based on chemical specific risk-benefit analysis, which could result in inappropriate or unnecessary restrictions on pest control tools available to growers.

“Our perception is that in its rush to ‘do something’ (for example, propose label changes before the 2016 growing season), even though numerous chemical or crop specific considerations will remain unresolved for some time, EPA has caused considerable concern for many growers,” the letter states.

The groups suggest the proposal could be improved with a step-wise approach to any program for label changes, including public meetings with agricultural and other stakeholders to more fully develop any implementation strategy.



Climatologist Says Current El Niño Could Mean More Favorable Weather for Midwest Crops

Much-needed precipitation through the U.S. heartland this year has replenished soil moisture, refilled ponds and promises to boost crop yields, thanks to the weather phenomenon known as El Niño, according to Iowa State University agricultural climatologist Elwynn Taylor. And the benefits for the Midwest may continue into 2016.

El Niño is associated with a warming of Pacific Ocean water, and tends to bring warmer, drier conditions to the northwest United States and cooler, wetter conditions to the Plains.

The conditions are a far cry from the recent La Niña – the opposite of El Niño, which brought drought to the central U.S., said Taylor, who spoke at the recent Kansas State University Risk and Profit Conference. “We’ve just come out of the second strongest La Niña in recorded history, about 200 years, and that brought us a disastrous drought. That’s the drought we had in the Corn Belt in 2012. That’s the first widespread drought that we’ve had in the Corn Belt since 1988.”

He likened the El Niño-La Niña phenomenon to a pendulum that swings from one extreme direction for a 14-month period and then to the extreme in the opposite direction.

“Because of the rainfall and mild temperatures in the central U.S., an El Niño gives a 70 percent chance of an above trend line yield for corn and soybeans in the Corn Belt, if other factors don’t come into play,” he said, adding that when corn yields are high in the Midwest, wheat yields in northwest states tend to be below average, because El Niño tends to bring drought to those states.

It’s unclear how long the current El Niño will last, but in similar situations where one has followed a strong La Niña, the El Niño has lasted a full two years rather than 14 months, which is average.

“If it goes 14 months, that it gets us well into 2016. It could get us off to a good start with the crop, but it could go bad after that,” Taylor said, noting that El Niño has sometimes gone on for 24 months – even 36 months, but that’s rare. “In ancient history, they’ve gone on for four or five years, but we don’t expect to see that this time around,” he said.

“With El Niño, we tend to have closer to average conditions than extremes. That is, the summer’s not oppressively hot, the winter’s not bitterly cold, and that is good news for people with cattle outside and people with winter wheat,” he said.

Taylor said scientists who study El Niño and La Niña have a good record for knowing four or five months in advance what conditions are coming: “That’s good news, but it doesn’t get you all the way through a growing season.”

That’s why people should pay attention, he said, adding, “We don’t get a sudden change from La Niña to El Niño. That’s a gradual one over months – a gentle change. But, when a strong El Niño ends, it can suddenly go to a La Niña condition, such as the major drought we had in 1988 that began just weeks after we went into La Niña.”

That’s why risk management is so important, he said, adding that after El Niño, growers have to be ready for yields and prices to change quickly.

In an Agriculture Today radio interview during the conference, Taylor said that once an El Niño ends, there is often talk of high-pressure ridges forming that block precipitation. The weather forecasts reporting those are typically focused on urban areas, especially in the New England states.

“We need to pay attention to what’s going on in the Gulf of Alaska. If we have a high pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska, we’ve just cut off the rain in a line from Kansas City to Chicago and everything north of that. That’s a good chunk of Nebraska and Kansas,” he said.

El Niño is the friend of the Midwest farmer, as well as the Argentine farmer, and those in southern Brazil and Uruguay and adjacent areas, he added. It is not the friend of the extreme northwest United States or the adjacent Canadian farmer, or farmers in northern Brazil.

“In fact some Brazilian farmers try to cover this by owning as many acres in northern Brazil as in southern Brazil,” Taylor said. While one is suffering from El Niño, the other is benefiting from El Niño. That’s a form of risk management, by having farms in two locations.”

“Also, if the Australian farmer has an enemy, it’s El Nino,” he added.

Taylor said that based on studies going back hundreds of years, the upcoming year 2025 bears watching: “2025 isn’t necessarily the year we expect a “Dust Bowl” to peak, but it would be typical. The harshest years for weather for Midwest crops tend to be separated by 89 years. The worst year for the 1800s in Illinois and Iowa was 1847. Records were not kept that far back for Kansas and Nebraska. In the next century, the harshest weather year for crops was 1936. Tree rings indicate the 89-year tendency has existed for several centuries.”

Taylor believes this means that weather will get increasingly volatile until we hit the extremes. “Remember, volatility goes both ways,” he said. “Years with record-high yields or yields with half of that, and that’s a disaster. During the 18 years before 2010, we had consistent yields.”

“This is an advantage the farmer has, to look at what is the year’s volatility, what are the likely prices I can sell my grain at or buy my feed at this year, and what the likely low will be and the likely high,” he continued. “You’re not going to hit it exactly. Just realize this is likely to be a year that will have above trend line yields, and so we’re going to have prices that go along with a higher yield. You don’t know exactly how low they’ll go, but as long as you’re working on the correct side of the picture, you’ll make a profit. It’s hard to go bankrupt when you’re making a profit.”

Taylor said weather conditions through the 2020s may be much like the volatile years during the 1980s.

Farmers will always deal with risk, but Taylor said U.S. farmers have good government support. “The federal government does not want farmers to take such a beating one year that they’re not in business the next, as happened back during the Dust Bowl of the ‘30s. That’s why we have crop insurance. That is for most people their No. 1 risk management tool.”



Farmers’ Almanac Predicts A Snow-Filled Winter for the North Central Region of the Country

The editors of the Farmers’ Almanac are issuing a stern warning, to “brace yourselves” for a winter forecast that you may not want to read. “Depending on where you live and how much cold and snow you like, we have good news and bad news,” reveals editor Peter Geiger, Philom. According to the 2016 edition, winter will once again split the country in half, with the eastern sections of the country on tap for frigidly cold conditions, and the other half predicted to experience milder to more normal winter conditions.

“The winter of 2015–2016 is looking like a repeat of last winter, at least in terms of temperatures,” reveals Caleb Weatherbee, the Farmers’ Almanac’s weather prognosticator, adding, “the term ‘déjà vu' comes to mind.”

Cold conditions are likely to affect the Atlantic Seaboard, the eastern portions of the Great Lakes, the lower peninsula of Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, most of the Tennessee and Mississippi Valley, as well as much of the Gulf Coast

Good News?!
The Farmers’ Almanac states “Much of the Central United States will see near-normal winter temperatures.”

In these areas, the Almanac states that "Mother Nature will mix intervals of unseasonably mild temperatures with occasional shots of bitter cold; average it out and it comes out–average!" However, the Almanac, which has been predicting the weather for 199 years, does predict a lot of snow in this section of the country.

How Are The Predictions Made?
The Farmers’ Almanac weather predictions are based on a very specific mathematical and astronomical formula. Developed in 1818 by David Young, the Almanac‘s first editor, this formula takes many factors into consideration, including sunspot activity, Moon phases, tidal action, and more. This carefully-guarded formula has been passed along from calculator to calculator and has never been revealed.

Unlike your local news, government, or commercial weather service, Farmers’ Almanac forecasts are calculated several years in advance. Once the Farmers’ Almanac is printed, the editors never go back to change or update the forecasts the way other local sources do. Though weather forecasting, and long-range forecasting in particular, remains an inexact science, many people swear by the long-range weather forecasts offered by this yearly publication, claiming an 80-85% accuracy rate.

More weather predictions and seasonal outlook maps at http://farmersalmanac.com/weather-outlook/2016-winter-forecast/.