Nov 10 USDA Reports - Crop Production - WASDE

USDA Crop Production Update - Nov 10, 2-15
Corn Production Up Less Than 1 Percent from October Forecast
Soybean Production Up 2 Percent
Cotton Production Down Less Than 1 Percent

Corn production is forecast at 13.7 billion bushels, up less than one percent from the October forecast, but down 4 percent from last year's record production. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 169.3 bushels per acre, up 1.3 bushels from the October forecast but 1.7 bushels below the 2014 average. If realized, this will be the second highest yield and third largest production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 80.7 million acres, unchanged from the October forecast but down 3 percent from 2014.

Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.98 billion bushels, up 2 percent from October and up 1 percent from last year. Based on November 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 48.3 bushels per acre, up 1.1 bushels from last month and up 0.8 bushel from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 82.4 million acres, unchanged from last month.

All cotton production is forecast at 13.3 million 480-pound bales, down less than 1 percent from last month and down 19 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 782 pounds per harvested acre, down 56 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 12.8 million 480-pound bales, down 19 percent from 2014. Pima cotton production, forecast at 451,000 bales, was carried forward from last month.


World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate - November 10, 2015
World Agricultre Outlook Board

COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2015/16 U.S. feed grain supplies are raised this month on higher forecast production for corn and sorghum. Corn production is forecast 99 million bushels higher with the national average yield raised 1.3 bushels per acre to 169.3 bushels, just 1.7 bushels below last year’s record. Projected domestic corn use for 2015/16 is lowered 50 million bushels as a 25-million-bushel increase in expected feed and residual use, with the larger crop and lower expected prices, is more than offset by a 75-million-bushel reduction in corn used to produce ethanol. The reduced outlook for corn use for ethanol is driven by significant adjustments to the 2015/16 sorghum balance sheet this month. U.S. sorghum exports for 2015/16 are projected 105 million bushels lower. Declining premiums for sorghum offered by exporters and large price discounts for sorghum relative to corn in interior cash markets drive expectations for higher use in ethanol production and higher feed and residual use.

Total U.S. corn use for 2015/16 is projected 100 million bushels lower with exports lowered 50 million bushels. U.S. corn export sales and shipments lag well behind last year at this time and U.S. supplies remain uncompetitive in many foreign markets as corn from Brazil continues to undercut U.S. offerings. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected 199 million bushels higher at 1,760 million. End-of-year stocks are projected 29 million bushels higher than those reported for 2014/15. The 2015/16 season-average corn price received by producers is projected 15 cents lower on both ends this month to $3.35 to $3.95 per bushel.

This month’s sharp rise in 2015/16 global coarse grain supplies is driven mostly by downward revisions to China corn feeding for 2013/14 through 2015/16. China corn beginning stocks are raised 18.8 million tons for 2015/16 reflecting the impact of lower estimated feed use for the preceding marketing years. Partly offsetting the increase in China is a 7.0-million-ton reduction for 2015/16 Brazil corn beginning stocks. Brazil corn feeding is raised for 2006/07 through 2011/12. (Balance sheet revisions for China and Brazil with a comparison to the October estimates and projections will be available at http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/historical.htm following today’s WASDE release.)

Global coarse grain production for 2015/16 is raised 2.3 million tons with the largest increase for U.S. corn. Corn production is also increased for Argentina and Brazil, but lowered for Ukraine, South Africa, India, and EU. Global sorghum production is lowered slightly with a reduction for Mexico more than offsetting the U.S. increase. Higher EU barley production is mostly offset by a reduction for Russia. EU oats and rye production are each raised slightly, but India millet is lowered.

Global 2015/16 coarse grain consumption is lowered 10.0 million tons mostly reflecting reductions in China corn and sorghum feeding. Corn consumption is also lowered for EU with reductions in food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use and feed and residual use, with the latter driven by higher expected wheat feeding. China FSI use is raised on prospects for more corn processing. Global coarse grain trade for 2015/16 is lowered with corn and sorghum exports both reduced. Corn exports are lowered for Ukraine and India, but raised for Argentina. Brazil corn exports are raised for 2014/15, also affecting U.S. 2015/16 marketing year export prospects.

Lower world sorghum exports for 2015/16 reflect this month’s change for the United States. Sorghum imports are lowered for China with only a small and partly offsetting increase made for Mexico.

Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2015/16 are raised 24.3 million tons with nearly all of the increase for China corn. More than half of the world’s 2015/16 corn ending stocks are expected to be held in China. Corn ending stocks outside China are projected 0.3 million tons higher this month. Higher U.S. and EU corn ending stocks are offset by reductions for Brazil and Indonesia.

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2015/16 is forecast at 117.7 million tons, up 2.5 million from the previous estimate on increased soybean production. Soybean production is forecast at a record 3,981 million bushels, up 93.6 million on higher yields. The soybean yield is forecast at 48.3 bushels per acre, up 1.1 bushels mainly on gains for Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota. Soybean supplies are projected up 2 percent from the October forecast. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1,890 million on higher meal exports. Soybean exports are also raised with additional supplies. Ending stocks are raised 40 million bushels to 465 million. If realized, ending stocks would be the highest since 2006/07.

Soybean oil balance sheet changes for 2015/16 include increased beginning stocks and production, reduced imports and domestic disappearance, and increased exports and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect final soybean oil stocks for 2014/15 as reported in the November 2015 NASS Oilseed Crushings report. Domestic disappearance for 2015/16 is reduced in line with lower domestic use estimated for 2014/15. Soybean oil ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 2,295 million pounds, up 265 million from last month’s forecast. Soybean and soybean meal prices for 2015/16 are reduced this month. The U.S. seasonaverage soybean price range is projected at $8.15 to $9.65 per bushel, down 25 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $300 to $340 per short ton, down $10.00 on both ends. Soybean oil prices are projected at and 27.5 to 30.5 cents per pound, unchanged from last month.

Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 531.0 million tons, down slightly from last month. Lower sunflowerseed, and cottonseed production account for most of the change with nearly offsetting increases projected for soybeans and rapeseed. Global soybean production is projected at 321.0 million tons, up 0.5 million, with the larger U.S. crop only partly offset by reductions for India, South Africa, and Uruguay. The India soybean crop is reduced 1.5 million tons to 9.5 million on lower projected yields. Inconsistent rainfall during the growing season and late-season heat results in below-average yields for the third consecutive year. Global rapeseed production is raised to 67.1 million tons. Increased production projected for Canada is only partly offset by reductions for Australia, Pakistan, and Russia. Global sunflowerseed production is reduced 0.8 million tons to 39.7 million on lower forecasts for Argentina, Pakistan, and EU. Other changes include reduced cottonseed production for several countries including Pakistan, China, and EU.

Global oilseed trade for 2015/16 is projected at 147.0 million tons, up 2.6 million from last month. With higher soybean imports projected for China, exports are raised for the United States, Brazil, and Argentina. Canada rapeseed exports are also raised with increased China imports. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 94.1 million tons, down 2.2 million from last month. Soybean stocks account for most of the change with reductions for Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, India, and Canada only partly offset by an increase for the United States.

WHEAT: Projected U.S. exports for 2015/16 are lowered 50 million bushels to 800 million, and ending stocks are raised by an equal amount to 911 million. Exports would be the lowest since 1971/72; ending stocks are the highest since 2009/10. Wheat exports are lowered on a very slow pace to date and continued lack of U.S. price competitiveness. The projected range for the 2015/16 U.S. season-average farm price is narrowed 5 cents on both the high and low ends to $4.80 to $5.20 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2015/16 are lowered 0.2 million tons on decreased beginning stocks partially offset by a small production increase. A 2.0-million-ton increase for EU production is partially offset by a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Australia and a 0.5-million-ton decrease for Russia. The EU and Russia changes stem from harvest reports to date. The Australia change reflects very hot and dry October conditions affecting grain fill and lowering yield potential. The global wheat crop is now projected at 733.0 million tons, a third consecutive record.

Foreign wheat exports for 2015/16 are raised 1.2 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for Canada on pace to date. Exports are also raised 0.5 million tons each for Brazil and EU on increased supplies of feed wheat and a larger crop, respectively. Australia exports are lowered 1.0 million tons on a smaller crop. Total world exports are down 0.2 million tons due to a 1.4-million-ton reduction for the United States. Several mostly offsetting changes are made to importing countries. Total world usage is up 1.0 million tons, led by China. Ending stocks are lowered 1.2 million tons to 227.3 million, but remain record large.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
The total meat production forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are little changed from last month due to largely offsetting changes in red meat and poultry. Beef production for 2015 and 2016 is lowered on slower expected marketings from feedlots into early 2016. However, the slower pace of slaughter is partly offset by higher expected carcass weights.

Pork production is lowered for 2015 on a slower expected pace of slaughter and slightly lighter carcass weights during the fourth quarter. The forecast for 2016 is unchanged. However, broiler production is forecast higher for both 2015 and 2016. September production was higher than expected, and hatchery data points to higher production into early 2016. Turkey production in September was also higher than expected, which boosted 2015 production, although no change was made to the forecast quarters. Egg production for 2015 is adjusted based on lower September hatching egg production, but production forecasts into 2016 are unchanged.

Beef imports for 2015 are reduced to reflect the pace of trade to date; the forecast for 2016 is unchanged. Beef exports for 2015 are lowered as demand remains relatively weak; no change is made to 2016. Pork import and export forecasts are unchanged, but small adjustments are made to third-quarter 2015 to reflect September trade data. Broiler exports for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month as the pace of export recovery has been slower than expected.

Cattle and hog prices for 2015 and 2016 are unchanged from last month. Broiler prices are lowered for both 2015 and 2016 as large broiler meat supplies are expected to continue to pressure markets. Turkey prices are unchanged for 2015 on current price strength, but the forecast for 2016 is reduced slightly. Egg prices are lowered into first-half 2016, reflecting recent price movements.

The milk production forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month as the dairy herd is expected to decline more rapidly from its second-quarter peak and growth in milk per cow in 2015 remains slower than expected. Imports are reduced on both a fat and skim-solids basis for both years as imports of milk protein concentrates and casein are expected to be lower. Exports are reduced for 2015 on weaker butter, cheese and whey sales. Largely uncompetitive prices are likely to limit growth in export sales of butter and to a lesser extent, cheese in 2016, and fat based exports are  reduced.

Strong domestic demand for butter is expected to support relatively high butter prices during the remainder of 2015, but supplies are expected to be large, and the price forecast for 2016 is lowered. Cheese prices are lowered for 2015 and 2016 as supplies remain large. The nonfat dry milk (NDM) price is reduced for 2015 and 2016 as prices move closer to international levels.

Whey prices are unchanged from last month. Class III prices are lowered for 2015 and 2016 reflecting the lower 2015 cheese price forecasts. Class IV prices are raised for 2015 due to the stronger forecast butter price which more than offsets the lower NDM price. However, the 2016 price is lowered as cheese and NDM forecasts are reduced. The all milk price is raised to $17.00 to $17.10 per cwt for 2015 and lowered to $15.95 to $16.85 per cwt for 2016.