Thursday March 31 Ag News

2016 NEBRASKA PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS

Nebraska corn growers intend to plant 9.70 million acres this year, up 3 percent from 2015, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Soybean planted acreage is expected to be 5.30 million acres, unchanged from last year.

All hay acreage to be harvested is expected to total 2.7 million acres, unchanged from a year ago.

Winter wheat acres seeded in the fall of 2015 are estimated at 1.35 million, down 9 percent from last year.

Sorghum growers in Nebraska intend to plant 270,000 acres, unchanged from a year ago.

Oat intentions are estimated at 145,000 acres, up 7 percent from last year.

Dry edible bean acreage intentions are estimated at 115,000 acres, down 18 percent from 2015.

Sugarbeet acres are expected to be 40,800 acres, down 14 percent from a year ago.

Sunflower producers expect to plant 44,000 acres, down 10 percent from 2015. Oil type varieties account for 27,000 acres, down 7 percent from a year ago. Non-oil varieties made up the balance of 17,000 acres, down 15 percent from last year.

Estimates in this report are based on a survey conducted during the first two weeks of March.



IOWA PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS
Iowa farmers intend to plant 13.9 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2016, according to the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Prospective Plantings report. This is an increase of 400,000 acres from 2015.

Producers intend to plant 9.7 million acres of soybeans in Iowa this year. This is a 150,000 acre decrease from 2015.

Iowa farmers intend to plant 90,000 acres of oats for all purposes, down 35,000 acres from last year. If realized, this would be the lowest planted acreage on record for Iowa.

Farmers in Iowa expect to harvest 1.2 million acres of dry hay for the 2016 crop year. This is 40,000 acres more than Iowa farmers harvested in 2015.

Planted acres for winter wheat, at 25,000 acres, is up 5,000 acres from last year.



USDA Prospective Plantings Report - March 31, 2016

Corn Planted Acreage Up 6 Percent from 2015
Soybean Acreage Down Less Than 1 Percent
All Wheat Acreage Down 9 Percent
All Cotton Acreage Up 11 Percent

Corn planted area for all purposes in 2016 is estimated at 93.6 million acres, up 6 percent from last year. If realized, this will represent the highest planted acreage in the United States since 2013, and will be the third highest planted acreage in the United States since 1944.

Soybean planted area for 2016 is estimated at 82.2 million acres, down less than 1 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage intentions are down or unchanged in 23 of the 31 estimating States.

All wheat planted area for 2016 is estimated at 49.6 million acres, down 9 percent from 2015. The 2016 winter wheat planted area, at 36.2 million acres, is down 8 percent from last year and down 1 percent from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 26.2 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 6.60 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.37 million acres are White Winter. Area planted to other spring wheat for 2016 is estimated at 11.3 million acres, down 14 percent from 2015. Of this total, about 10.7 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. The intended Durum planted area for 2016 is estimated at 2.00 million acres, up 3 percent from the previous year.

All cotton planted area for 2016 is estimated at 9.56 million acres, 11 percent above last year. Upland area is estimated at 9.35 million acres, up 11 percent from 2015. American Pima area is estimated at 215,000 acres, up 36 percent from 2015.



NEBRASKA MARCH 1, 2016 GRAIN STOCKS

Nebraska corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2016 totaled 956 million bushels, up 16 percent from 2015, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Of the total, 530 million bushels are stored on farms, up 23 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 426 million bushels, are up 8 percent from last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions totaled 118 million bushels, up 9 percent from last year. On-farm stocks of 41.0 million bushels are 28 percent above last year, and off-farm stocks, at 76.8 million bushels, are up 1 percent from 2015.

Wheat stored in all positions totaled 42.8 million bushels, up 17 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks of 2.90 million bushels are up 26 percent from last year, and off-farm stocks of 39.9 million bushels are up 16 percent from last year.

Sorghum stored in all positions totaled 8.47 million bushels, up 144 percent from 2015. On-farm stocks of 600 thousand are down 8 percent while off farm holdings of 7.87 million are up 175 percent from last year.

On-farm oats totaled 750 thousand bushels, up 15 percent from 2015.



IOWA CORN STOCKS REPORT

Iowa corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2016, totaled 1.53 billion bushels, up 4 percent from March 1, 2015, according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Grain Stocks report. Of the total stocks, 61 percent were stored on-farm. The December 2015-February 2016 indicated disappearance totaled 660 million bushels, 15 percent above the 575 million bushels used during the same period last year.

Iowa soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2016, totaled 328 million bushels, up 27 percent from the 258 million bushels on hand March 1, 2015. Of the total stocks, 47 percent were stored on-farm. Indicated disappearance for December 2015-February 2016 is 128 million bushels, 15 percent less than the 151 million bushels used during the same quarter last year.

Iowa oats stocks stored on-farm on March 1, 2016, totaled 1.0 million bushels, unchanged from March 1, 2015.



USDA Grain Stocks Report - March 31, 2016

Corn Stocks Up 1 Percent from March 2015
Soybean Stocks Up 15 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Up 20 Percent

Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2016 totaled 7.81 billion bushels, up 1 percent from March 1, 2015. Of the total stocks, 4.34 billion bushels were stored on farms, down 1 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.47 billion bushels, are up 3 percent from a year ago. The December 2015 - February 2016 indicated disappearance is 3.43 billion bushels, compared with 3.46 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2016 totaled 1.53 billion bushels, up 15 percent from March 1, 2015. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 728 million bushels, up 19 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 803 million bushels, are up 12 percent from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2015 - February 2016 quarter totaled 1.18 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the same period a year earlier.

All wheat stored in all positions on March 1, 2016 totaled 1.37 billion bushels, up 20 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 320 million bushels, up 15 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 1.05 billion bushels, are up 22 percent from a year ago. The December 2015 - February 2016 indicated disappearance is 375 million bushels, 4 percent below the same period a year earlier.

Durum wheat stocks in all positions on March 1, 2016 totaled 41.5 million bushels, up 10 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 16.7 million bushels, are up 3 percent from March 1, 2015. Off-farm stocks totaled 24.8 million bushels, up 16 percent from a year ago. The December 2015 - February 2016 indicated disappearance of 18.8 million bushels is 194 percent above the same period a year earlier.

Barley stocks in all positions on March 1, 2016 totaled 137 million bushels, up 16 percent from March 1, 2015. On-farm stocks are estimated at 57.6 million bushels, 37 percent above a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 79.5 million bushels, are 4 percent above March 2015. The December 2015 - February 2016 indicated disappearance totaled 43.4 million bushels, 15 percent above the same period a year earlier.

Oats stored in all positions on March 1, 2016 totaled 75.3 million bushels, 27 percent above the stocks on March 1, 2015. Of the total stocks on hand, 26.8 million bushels were stored on farms, up 29 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 48.5 million bushels, up 26 percent from the previous year. Indicated disappearance during December 2015 - February 2016 totaled 7.57 million bushels, slightly above the same period a year ago.

Grain sorghum stored in all positions on March 1, 2016 totaled 201 million bushels, up 68 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 24.8 million bushels, are up 175 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 176 million bushels, are up 59 percent from a year earlier. The December 2015 - February 2016 indicated disappearance from all positions is 121 million bushels, 18 percent above the same period last year.

Sunflower stocks in all positions on March 1, 2016 totaled 1.06 billion pounds, 52 percent above March 1, 2015. All stocks stored on farms totaled 461 million pounds and off-farm stocks totaled 599 million pounds. Stocks of oil type sunflower seed are 768 million pounds; of this total, 325 million pounds are on-farm stocks and 443 million pounds are off-farm stocks. Non-oil sunflower stocks totaled 292 million pounds, with 136 million pounds stored on the farm and 156 million pounds stored off the farm.



Nebraska Beef Council Seeks Director Candidates

The Nebraska Beef Council (NBC) will hold Board of Director Elections in five districts in 2016.  This opportunity is open to Nebraska beef producers that are at least 21 years of age, a resident and registered voter of a county in the district that he or she will represent, have been actively engaged as a producer in Nebraska for at least the previous five years and is in compliance with all checkoff  laws for the 12 months prior to the call for candidates.

Nebraska Beef Council directors volunteer their time to represent beef producers’ checkoff collections and investments on the state, national and international level. The Board’s major responsibility is to oversee checkoff expenditures by determining promotion, research and education programs for checkoff investments.  The term is four years and will begin on January 2, 2017.

Producers interested in becoming a beef council director are encouraged to visit with current and past directors to learn more about this valuable experience and its commitment.

Beef producers who are passionate about the industry and who are willing to provide leadership to the beef checkoff program and its investments are needed as we continue to face challenges in the industry.  We need strong leaders to enhance our mission and strengthen beef demand in the global marketplace.

Districts hosting an election in 2016:
District 1- Banner, Box Butte, Cheyenne, Dawes, Deuel, Garden, Kimball, Morrill, Scotts Bluff, Sheridan, Sioux
District 3- Burt, Cedar, Cuming, Dakota, Dixon, Madison, Pierce, Stanton, Thurston, Wayne
District 5- Buffalo, Custer, Garfield, Greeley, Hall, Howard, Sherman, Valley
District 7- Butler, Cass, Colfax, Dodge, Douglas, Hamilton, Merrick, Nance, Platte, Polk, Sarpy, Saunders, Washington, York
District 9- Dawson, Franklin, Frontier, Furnas, Gosper, Harlan, Kearney, Phelps, Red Willow

For additional information, log onto www.nebeef.org or contact the Nebraska Beef Council office at 1-800-421-5326. 



Statement by Steve Nelson, President, Regarding Legislative Action on Property Taxes (LB 958)

“We appreciate the Legislature’s work today in advancing LB 958 for further consideration. This measure provides much needed additional dollars into the state’s property tax credit program targeted to providing immediate relief to Nebraska’s farm and ranch families who have been hit the hardest by skyrocketing property tax bills. Over the last decade property taxes collected on agricultural land have increased 176 percent.”

“Further, we appreciate the discussion on the legislative floor the last couple of days regarding the need for collaborative efforts to make structural changes to Nebraska tax policy that addresses the property tax issue for all Nebraskans. Those discussions set the stage for additional work on the property tax issue during the interim and into the 2017 legislative session.”

“Nebraska Farm Bureau is committed to working with the Legislature to address the broader issue of property taxes. The harsh reality is that property taxes are carrying far too heavy a load in our overall tax system. Property taxes account for 48 percent of the total combined property, income and sales tax collections statewide.”

“It is imperative we work together as Nebraskans to develop a strategy to make the needed structural changes to better balance our tax system, including reforms in the way we fund schools in Nebraska given that roughly 51 percent of total school spending in Nebraska comes from property taxes, while nationally, the average is 32 percent. How we fund education must be addressed moving forward.”



LEAD FELLOWSHIP APPLICATIONS AVAILABLE FOR GROUP 36

    Fellowship applications for Nebraska LEAD (Leadership Education/Action Development) group 36 are available for men and women involved in production agriculture or agribusiness.

     "Up to 30 motivated men and women with demonstrated leadership potential will be selected from five geographic districts across our state," said Terry Hejny, Nebraska LEAD Program director.

    In addition to monthly three-day seminars throughout Nebraska from mid-September through early April each year, Nebraska LEAD fellows also participate in a 10-day national study/travel seminar and a two-week international study/travel seminar.

    Seminar themes include leadership assessment and potential, natural resources and energy, agricultural policy, leadership through communication, Nebraska's political process, global perspectives, nuclear energy, social issues, understanding and developing leadership skills, agribusiness and marketing, advances in health care and the resources and people of Nebraska's Panhandle, Hejny said.

    The Nebraska LEAD Program is designed to prepare spokespersons, problem-solvers and decision-makers for Nebraska and its agricultural industry.

    In its 35th year, the program is operated by the Nebraska Agricultural Leadership Council, a nonprofit organization, in collaboration with the University of Nebraska-Lincoln's Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources and in cooperation with Nebraska colleges and universities, business and industry, and individuals throughout the state.

    Applications are due no later than June 15 and are available via email from the Nebraska LEAD Program at leadprogram@unl.edu. Application requests can also be sent to 104 ACB, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 68583-0940.

    For information about the selection process, visit http://lead.unl.edu or call 402-472-6810.



2016 Nebraska Beef Ambassador Contest

The Nebraska Cattlewomen are excited to announce the 2016 Nebraska Beef Ambassador Contest that will be held June 10th, 2016 at the Mid Plains College in Broken Bow, NE starting at 10:00am.

The Nebraska Beef Ambassador Program provides an opportunity for youth, ages 14 - 24 years old, to become spokespersons and future leaders for the beef industry. The two divisions, senior and collegiate, will be judged upon three different areas of the industry consisting of a mock consumer promotional event, mock media interview and an issues response.

Place holders will receive a cash prize while the winners, in addition to a cash prize, will take home a custom belt buckle. To sweeten the deal, the Nebraska Cattlemen's Foundation will be providing a scholarship to the winner of the collegiate division.

If you or someone you know enjoys public speaking and are passionate about the beef industry then take a shot at becoming the next Beef Ambassador!

Please contact The Nebraska Cattlewomen at ncw@necattlemen.org or call (308)760-6464 for a complete set of rules and to register.

View the 2016 Nebraska Beef Ambassador Contest flyer here... http://www.nebraskacattlemen.org/CMDocs/NebraskaCA/BEEFAMBASSADOR2016.pdf. 



Mounting Pressure in the U.S. Farm Sector
Nathan Kauffman, Assistant Vice President and Omaha Branch Executive

The U.S. agricultural economy has continued to weaken in the first quarter of 2016 and is expected to remain soft through the year. The weakening has been relatively gradual over the past few years, but it has been persistent and has intensified in recent months amid mounting financial stress for some agricultural producers. Future cash flow appears likely to remain a top concern for producers over the coming year as agricultural credit conditions, and the path of interest rates, evolve.

Farm Income
U.S. farm income has continued to decline, and is expected to remain low as planting season approaches across the country. The USDA projects real net farm income to be slightly less than a year ago; that projection would mark the second-lowest farm income total in more than 30 years. Prolonged weakness in the farm sector primarily has been driven by several consecutive years of low crop prices and persistently elevated input costs, while recent weakness in the livestock sector also has been a factor.

Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions paint a similar picture for the Tenth District. The survey indicates farm income in the Kansas City Fed District began to decrease in mid-2013. Since then, more bankers have reported further declines, and the fourth quarter of 2015 was the 11th consecutive quarter of lower farm income in the District. Among 190 survey respondents, only three bankers indicated farm income was higher than a year ago, whereas 166 reported income had declined. Moreover, 81 percent of respondents indicated they expect income to be even lower in the next quarter.

Agricultural Credit
The need for financing, and the potential for future financial stress, has continued to increase throughout U.S. farm country. Loan demand in the Tenth District is expected to increase again in the first quarter of 2016, which would be the third consecutive year in which lending needs in the farm sector increased relative to the previous year. Similarly, bankers responding to the fourth quarter survey indicated they expect loan renewals and extensions to continue to accelerate. Conversely, the rate at which loans are repaid at agricultural banks in the District was expected to soften further.

Persistently strong loan demand at agricultural banks has been coupled with reports of increasing use of USDA Farm Loan Programs through the Farm Service Agency (FSA). From 2013 to 2015, FSA loan volumes increased more than 40 percent. Consistent with bankers’ recent anecdotal reports of increased use, about 55 percent of FSA funds available for operating loans had already been used from October 2015, the beginning of the FSA fiscal year, to mid-March. Bankers noted the increased use is due, in part, to an effort to mitigate risk connected to an increasingly pessimistic outlook for future cash flows.

Interest Rates
Pessimism about cash flows and profit margins appears to be the main factor driving the weak outlook in the agricultural economy, whereas interest expenses have remained low. Despite strong loan demand and an increase in the federal funds target rate in December, interest rates on most farm loans have remained historically low. In fact, interest expenses for U.S. corn producers accounted for only 9 cents per bushel of production in 2014, the latest year for which data are currently available. In contrast, the average monthly change in corn prices was nearly 40 cents per bushel in 2015. Indeed, the average daily change in corn prices of 8 cents per bushel in 2015 is roughly equal to total annual interest expenses on a per bushel basis, suggesting that commodity prices and production expenses are likely to outweigh potential near-term concerns about higher interest rates.

Higher interest rates generally exert downward pressure on farmland values, but other factors also may be important in the current outlook for farm real estate. Specifically, private sector forecasts of long-term interest rates suggest cash rents may need to fall significantly to have a sizable impact on farmland values in the Corn Belt. In March, the Blue Chip Economic Forecast for the U.S. 10-year Treasury rate was 2.7 percent for 2017. The capitalized value of farmland, calculated by dividing cash rents by the 10-year Treasury rate, has tracked rather closely with the actual value of farm real estate over time. Applying the Blue Chip Treasury rate assumption for 2017, Chart 7 shows that a 25 percent drop in cash rents (equivalent to the largest two-year decline in Iowa during the 1980s) would lead to a decrease of 18 percent from the recent peak.

A drop in farmland values of this magnitude in the Corn Belt would be notable, but it would be unlikely to trigger widespread concerns about solvency in the sector overall. An 18 percent drop in farmland values nationally, for example, would push the U.S. farm sector debt-to-asset ratio to 16.1 from USDA’s current projection for 2016 of 13.2, holding debt levels constant at levels forecast for this year. This would also be a noteworthy rise in the debt-to-asset ratio but still well below levels observed during the farm bust of the 1980s.



Vilsack to Travel to Germany and France

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack will travel to Berlin and Paris next week to discuss areas of mutual interest between the European and American agricultural sectors. In Berlin, Vilsack will meet with German officials as well as farmers about rural economic development opportunities and to underscore the importance of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). He will then lead the U.S. delegation to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Meeting of Agriculture Ministers, which is being held in Paris.

While in Berlin April 4-5, Vilsack will meet with German Minister of Food and Agriculture Christian Schmidt and other government officials, as well as with an organization of rural youth and young farmers. He will discuss how the TTIP agreement, currently being negotiated between the United States and the European Union, will benefit both parties' agricultural sectors by stimulating rural economies, streamlining import procedures, providing more food choices for consumers, addressing climate change, and increasing food security.

Vilsack will then travel to Paris, where he will co-chair the OECD agricultural ministerial that takes place April 7-8. He and other agriculture ministers from OECD countries and partner economies around the world will explore how their governments can work together to feed a growing world population, while managing natural resources and dealing with climate change.



Why is Bayer Fighting EPA to Protect a Pesticide?
Dana Sargent, Bayer Vice President for Regulatory Affairs

You may have seen some media stories about our current disagreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency over registrations for our pesticide flubendiamide, marketed in the U.S. as Belt.  In short, EPA asked us to voluntarily withdraw our registrations for flubendiamide-containing products, making them unavailable to growers in the U.S.  We rejected that request and, as expected, EPA then filed a formal Notice of Intent to Cancel these registrations.

Today we are officially taking the step that we previously said we intended to take and we have formally asked for a hearing before EPA’s Administrative Law Judge.  With this action, I wanted to answer a few basic questions about why we are doing it and what it means.

What does it mean that you’re asking for a hearing?
We have a fundamental disagreement with EPA over science and process surrounding the registration of flubendiamide and Belt.  We have been working with them to resolve the disagreement.  Now EPA is trying to cancel it through a streamlined hearing in an effort to shield its science from independent peer review and to avoid other government and stakeholder input on its approach.  We disagree with this and are invoking our right to have an EPA Administrative Law Judge hear both sides and make a determination on what process should be followed.  As a matter of standard practice, the Administrative Law Judge’s initial determination will then be reviewed by the EPA Environmental Appeals Board. 

Why are you trying to protect a pesticide EPA says is harmful?
The science is on our side.  EPA requested real-world studies to learn if the product would cause harm to a particular aquatic invertebrate species.  EPA has concluded that flubendiamide poses no risk of concern to humans (either through diet or worker exposure), fish, mammals, crustaceans, mollusks, beneficial insects, pollinators, or plants.  Over the course of five years, we conducted real world monitoring to study Belt’s impact in the one area in which EPA raised a question.  The results were clear – residues of Belt were below levels EPA said may pose harm.  Unfortunately, instead of accepting that real world data, EPA based its decision on theoretical computer modeling which is, of course, dependent on many assumptions and inputs.  We fundamentally disagree with EPA’s over-reliance on theoretical modeling when real-world studies have shown residues are well within previously established safe levels.  We think this should be subjected to independent review.

Is this a flaw in EPA’s conditional registration rules that allows an unproven product to be used?
EPA’s conditional registration process actually makes it possible to bring new tools to growers while balancing environmental safety. In this case, for example, we submitted all data and studies to support a full registration and after an extensive review, EPA accepted them.  At the time of the original conditional registration, EPA already concluded that flubendiamide poses no risk of concern to humans (either through diet or worker exposure), fish, mammals, crustaceans, mollusks, beneficial insects, pollinators, or plants.  It made a particular determination at that time that registering flubendiamide would be in the public’s interest. The conditional registration allowed growers to safely use this tool while additional data was being generated and evaluated by the EPA.   

While we want all of our products to receive full registration when introduced, we think the conditional registration process is an important one.  Science evolves and our understanding of how products are used is enhanced through experience. Without this, a process that can take 10 years to bring a new tool to growers could take much longer and it would be difficult to make a business case to bring many safe, effective products to the market. We will stand by whatever the science says on our products, but it is critical that science be our guide.

Can’t growers just use something else? Why do they need this one?
Belt is registered for use on nearly 200 crops in the U.S.  From tree nuts and fruit in California to soybeans and cotton in the east, growers have used Belt for nearly a decade now.  Proper stewardship practices and adherence to integrated pest management practices means growers need access to more technologies, not less.  A technology as effective and with a safety profile as favorable as Belt fits the bill perfectly.  And if growers can’t preserve access to products like this one, it raises questions about what other tools they may lose.

So what happens next?
Our next step is to have a formal hearing before the EPA’s Administrative Law Judge.  As a matter of standard practice, the Administrative Law Judge’s initial determination will then be reviewed by the EPA Environmental Appeals Board. The Hearing can last up to 75 days.  In the meantime, growers can still use Belt and retailers and distributors can still sell it.  We are asking that the Administrative Law Judge and Environmental Appeals Board address Bayer’s argument about whether a more complete public review will take place.