Thur Jan 12 USDA Reports

USDA Crop Production 2016 Summary - January 12, 2017

Corn for grain production is estimated at 15.1 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the November forecast but up 11 percent from the 2015 estimate. The average yield in the United States is estimated at 174.6 bushels per acre. This is down 0.7 bushel from the November forecast but 6.2 bushels above the 2015 average yield of 168.4 bushels per acre. Area harvested for grain is estimated at 86.7 million acres, down slightly from the November forecast but up 7 percent from 2015.

Sorghum grain production in 2016 is estimated at 480 million bushels, up 4 percent from the November forecast but down 20 percent from the 2015 total. Planted area for 2016 is estimated at 6.69 million acres, down 21 percent from the previous year. Area harvested for grain, at 6.16 million acres, is down 22 percent from 2015. Grain yield is estimated at a record 77.9 bushels per acre, up 1.4 bushels from the previous forecast and up 1.9 bushels from 2015.

Rice production in 2016 is estimated at 224 million cwt, down 5 percent from the previous forecast but up 16 percent from the revised 2015 total. Planted area for 2016 is estimated at 3.15 million acres, up 20 percent from 2015. Area harvested, at 3.10 million acres, is also up 20 percent from the previous crop year. The average yield for all United States rice is estimated at 7,237 pounds per acre, down 256 pounds from the previous forecast and 235 pounds below the 2015 United States average of 7,472 pounds per acre.

Soybean production in 2016 totaled a record 4.31 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the November forecast but up 10 percent from 2015. The average yield per acre is estimated at a record high 52.1 bushels, 0.4 bushel below the November forecast but 4.1 bushels above the previous record yield in
2015. Harvested area is up 1 percent from last year to a record 82.7 million acres.

All cotton production is estimated at 17.0 million 480-pound bales, up 3 percent from the December forecast and up 32 percent from 2015. The United States yield is estimated at 855 pounds per acre, up 34 pounds from the December forecast and up 89 pounds from last year. Harvested area, at 9.52 million acres, is down 1 percent from the December forecast but up 18 percent from last year.



USDA Grain Stocks
Corn Stocks Up 10 Percent from December 2015
Soybean Stocks Up 7 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Up 19 Percent

Corn stored in all positions on December 1, 2016 totaled 12.4 billion bushels, up 10 percent from December 1, 2015. Of the total stocks, 7.61 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 11 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 4.77 billion bushels, are up 8 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2016 indicated disappearance is 4.50 billion bushels, compared with 4.10 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on December 1, 2016 totaled 2.90 billion bushels, up 7 percent from December 1, 2015. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 1.34 billion bushels, up 2 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.56 billion bushels, are up 11 percent from last December. Indicated disappearance for September - November 2016 totaled 1.61 billion bushels, up 15 percent from the same period a year earlier.

All wheat stored in all positions on December 1, 2016 totaled 2.07 billion bushels, up 19 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 571 million bushels, up 13 percent from last December. Off-farm stocks, at 1.50 billion bushels, are up 21 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2016 indicated disappearance is 472 million bushels, 34 percent above the same period a year earlier.

Durum wheat stored in all positions on December 1, 2016 totaled 72.9 million bushels, up 21 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 49.2 million bushels, are up 38 percent from December 1, 2015. Off-farm stocks totaled 23.7 million bushels, down 4 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2016 indicated disappearance of 19.0 million bushels is 40 percent above the same period a year earlier.

Barley stored in all positions on December 1, 2016 totaled 193 million bushels, up 7 percent from December 1, 2015. On-farm stocks are estimated at 99.1 million bushels, 2 percent above a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 93.4 million bushels, are 12 percent above December 2015. The September - November 2016 indicated disappearance is 37.8 million bushels, 2 percent below the same period a year earlier.

Oats stored in all positions on December 1, 2016 totaled 75.5 million bushels, down 9 percent from the stocks on December 1, 2015. Of the total stocks on hand, 30.4 million bushels are stored on farms, down 17 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 45.1 million bushels, down 2 percent from the previous year. Indicated disappearance during September - November 2016 totaled 3.06 million bushels.

Grain sorghum stored in all positions on December 1, 2016 totaled 311 million bushels, down 3 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 43.0 million bushels, are down 17 percent from December 1 last year. Off-farm stocks, at 268 million bushels, are down 1 percent from a year earlier. The September - November 2016 indicated disappearance from all positions is 206 million bushels, down 30 percent from the same period in 2015.



USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates - Jan 12, 2017

COARSE GRAINS:  This month’s 2016/17 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced feed and residual use, increased corn used to produce ethanol, and smaller stocks.  Corn production is estimated at 15.148 billion bushels, down 78 million from last month on lower harvested area and a reduction in yield to 174.6 bushels per acre.  Imports are raised based on the pace of corn imports through November.  Feed and residual use is lowered 50 million bushels to 5,600 million based on the smaller crop, increased corn used to produce ethanol, greater sorghum feeding, and indicated disappearance during September-November as reflected by the December 1 stocks.  Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5,325 million based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report which estimated the amount of corn used to produce ethanol during September-November to be record high.  With supply falling faster than use, corn ending stocks are lowered 48 million bushels from last month.  The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents on both ends to $3.10 to $3.70 per bushel.

Sorghum production for 2016/17 is estimated 18 million bushels higher on increases in both harvested area and yield.  Grain sorghum prices are projected to average $2.65 to $3.15 per bushel, down 15 cents at the midpoint reflecting the weakening relationship to corn prices in interior markets.

Global coarse grain production for 2016/17 is forecast 1.7 million tons lower to 1,327.7 million.  This month’s 2016/17 foreign coarse grain outlook is for marginally lower production, higher consumption, and increased trade relative to last month.  Serbia corn production is raised reflecting the latest information from the Foreign Agricultural Service office in Belgrade.  Partly offsetting is lower corn production for Bolivia where the impact of a severe drought during the growing season was worse than previously expected.  Russia barley production is lowered based on the latest government statistics.  Argentina barley production is lowered on dryness in southern Buenos Aires province during crop heading and grain fill in November and December.

Major global trade changes for 2016/17 this month include lower projected corn exports for India, more than offset by increases for Serbia and the EU.  Imports are raised for Bolivia, but lowered for Indonesia.  Foreign corn ending stocks are virtually unchanged from last month, with reductions for Indonesia, Mexico, and the EU offset by an increase for Canada. 

OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2016/17 is estimated at 127.3 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month.  Lower soybean and peanut production is partly offset with higher canola, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed crops.  Soybean production is estimated at a record 4,307 million bushels, down 54 million from last month on lower yields.  Harvested area is estimated at 82.7 million acres, down 0.3 million from the previous forecast with lower planted area.  Yield is estimated at a record 52.1 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushels.  Soybean supplies are down 60 million bushels on lower production and imports.  With exports and crush unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 420 million bushels, down 60 million from last month.  Although soybean crush is unchanged, soybean meal production is reduced on a lower extraction rate.  Soybean meal exports are also reduced on lagging sales.  Soybean oil balance sheet changes include increased production on a higher extraction rate, and increased ending stocks.

U.S. peanut production is reduced 9 percent from the previous forecast based on lower harvested area, mainly in Texas, and lower yields in most states.  With reduced supplies, peanut exports, crush, and ending stocks are reduced. 

The 2016/17 U.S. season-average farm price forecast for soybeans is projected at $9.00 to $10.00 per bushel, from $8.70 to $10.20, up 5 cents at the midpoint.  The soybean meal price forecast is unchanged at $305 to $345 per short ton.  The soybean oil price forecast of 34 to 37 cents per pound is lowered 0.5 cents at the midpoint. 

The 2016/17 global oilseeds supply and demand estimates include higher production and exports compared to last month.  Oilseed production is projected up 0.1 million tons to 554.8 million on increases for cottonseed, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed partly offset by reductions for soybeans and peanuts.  Soybean production is lowered 0.2 million tons as increases for Brazil and China are offset by declines in Bolivia, Uruguay, and the United States.  The largest change to production is a 2.0-million-ton increase to 104.0 million for Brazil, where beneficial rain has resulted in improved yield prospects. 

Global oilseed trade is projected at 160.3 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month.  Increased soybean exports for Brazil more than offset lower soybean exports for Bolivia and Uruguay and lower rapeseed exports for Canada.  Global oilseed crush is projected higher on increased soybean crush for Argentina and India and increased rapeseed crush for Canada.  Global oilseed stocks are projected at 93.7 million tons, down 0.9 million, mainly on lower soybean stocks for the United States.

WHEAT:  U.S. 2016/17 all wheat ending stocks are raised this month and projected to reach the highest level since the late 1980’s.  Feed and residual use is lowered 35 million bushels reflecting disappearance for June-November as implied by the December 1 stocks estimated in the Grain Stocks report.  Seed use is lowered 8 million bushels on the winter wheat planted area released today in the Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report.  Total supplies for 2016/17 are lowered fractionally on lower beginning stocks while 2016 production is unchanged.  Projected ending stocks for 2016/17 are raised 43 million bushels.  The season-average farm price is raised $0.10 at the midpoint to $3.80 on higher-than-expected cash prices to date.  However, this season-average price would still be the lowest since 2005.

Global wheat supplies for 2016/17 are raised 1.3 million tons on a production increase that is only partially offset by lower beginning stocks.  The largest increases are for Argentina, Russia, and the EU.  Global exports are raised 1.2 million tons led by increases for Argentina, Australia, and the EU.  Partly offsetting is a reduction in Canadian exports reflecting the slow shipment pace so far this year.  Global use for 2016/17 is raised 0.1 million tons with increased food use partially offset by a reduction in feed and residual use.  With total global supplies increasing faster than use, ending stocks are increased 1.2 million tons to a new record of 253.3 million. 

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The estimate for total red meat and poultry production for 2016 is raised slightly from last month.  Beef production is raised on increased fed cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights.  Pork production for 2016 is raised based on slaughter data.  Broiler and turkey production for 2016 is slightly lower based on the recent slaughter.  For 2017, red meat and poultry production is raised largely on higher forecast pork production, although forecasts of beef and broilers are raised.  Higher expected cattle placements in late 2016 and early 2017 underpin higher forecast beef production in 2017.  USDA will release its semi-annual Cattle report January 31 which will provide estimates of heifers held for breeding along with indications of the availability of cattle for placement during 2017.  Pork production for 2017 is raised based on estimates from the December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report.  The 5 percent year-over-year increase in the September–November pig crop will be slaughtered largely in the second quarter of 2017.  Producers indicated intentions to farrow 1 percent more sows in the first half of 2017 which, coupled with expected growth in pigs per litter, will support a higher level of slaughter during the second half of the year.  Broiler production is raised for early 2017 on recent hatchery data, but the turkey production forecast is unchanged.  Egg production for 2017 is raised slightly based on hatchery data.

Both beef and pork 2016 export estimates are raised based on November trade data and expectations of strong export demand in December.  Beef imports are lowered, but no change is made to pork imports.  Broiler and turkey exports are lowered on recent trade data.  No change is made to the 2016 egg export estimate.  For 2017, beef exports are raised as current demand strength is expected to carry into 2017.  Imports are forecast higher on expectations of slightly larger supplies from Oceania in early 2017.  No changes are made to pork, broiler, or turkey trade forecasts. The 2017 egg export forecast is raised on expectations of stronger sales in the first half of the year.

Livestock and poultry prices for 2016 are adjusted to reflect December price data.  The 2017 cattle price forecast is increased on continued strong demand into the first part of 2017.  The hog price forecast for first quarter 2017 is raised on demand strength, but price forecasts for subsequent quarters are lowered as hog supplies are expected to be large.  Broiler prices are raised slightly on early-year demand strength.  Turkey prices are forecast lower on relatively soft demand. Egg prices are increased. 

Milk production for 2016 is raised on slightly larger milk cow numbers.  The 2017 milk production forecast is raised from last month as improved returns support increases in both cow numbers and milk per cow.  Fat and skim-solids basis exports for 2016 are raised on recent trade data.  Imports are unchanged.  Exports on a fat basis are reduced slightly for 2017, but are raised on a skim-solids basis.  Import forecasts are unchanged for 2017.

Dairy product prices and Class prices for 2016 are adjusted to incorporate December price data.  For 2017, butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk, and whey prices are raised from last month on demand strength.  Class prices for 2017 are raised, reflecting higher product price forecasts.  The all milk price range is raised to $17.60 to $18.40 per cwt.



Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings
Planted Acres Down 10 Percent

Winter wheat seeded area for 2017 is expected to total 32.4 million acres, down 10 percent from 2016. Approximate class acreage breakdowns are: Hard Red Winter, 23.3 million; Soft Red Winter, 5.68 million; and White Winter, 3.37 million.

Winter wheat: Planted area for harvest in 2017 is estimated at 32.4 million acres, down 10 percent from 2016 and 18 percent below 2015. This represents the second lowest United States acreage on record. Seeding began in early September and remained at or ahead of the 5-year average seeding pace through the middle of November when seeding was mostly complete.

Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat seeded area is expected to total 23.3 million acres, down 12 percent from 2016. Planted acreage is down from last year across most of the growing region. The largest declines in planted acreage are estimated in the Great Plains. Record low acreage was seeded in Nebraska and Utah.

Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat seeded area totals 5.68 million acres, down 6 percent from last year. Acreage decreases from last year are estimated in most of the SRW growing States, while increases are expected in the Carolinas, Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, and Maryland. Record low acreage was seeded in Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, and West Virginia.

White Winter wheat seeded area totals 3.37 million acres, down 4 percent from 2016. Planting in the Pacific Northwest got off to a normal start, but by the middle of October, progress was behind the 5-year average pace in Idaho and Washington. By October 30, seeding was virtually complete in the region.

Durum wheat: Seedings in Arizona and California for 2017 harvest are estimated at a combined 140,000 acres, down 8 percent from 2016 and 38 percent below 2015. In Arizona, seeding was well underway by January 1 at 22 percent complete, 8 percentage points ahead of last year. Wet conditions in California are negatively impacting planting progress.

Canola: This report contains the first estimate of seedings for canola for Kansas and Oklahoma. Seedings in Kansas and Oklahoma for 2017 harvest are estimated at a combined 130,000 acres, an increase of 24 percent from 2016.