Thursday October 12 USDA Crop Production + Ag News

USDA Crop Production Estimate - Oct 12, 2023
Corn Production Down Less Than 1 Percent from September Forecast
Soybean Production Down 1 Percent

Corn production for grain is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but up 10 percent from 2022. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 173.0 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.8 bushel from the previous forecast and down 0.4 bushel from last year. Area harvested for grain, forecast at 87.1 million acres, is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 10 percent from the last year.

Soybean production for beans is forecast at 4.10 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 4 percent from 2022. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 49.6 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from the previous forecast but equal to 2022. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 82.8 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 4 percent from 2022.

Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between Sept. 23 and Oct. 5 to gather information on expected yield as of Oct. 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, cotton, and soybeans were conducted in the major producing states that usually account for about 75% of U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet, and personal enumeration. Approximately 7,800 producers were contacted during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield.



NEBRASKA CROP PRODUCTION REPORT

Based on October 1 conditions, Nebraska's 2023 corn production is forecast at 1.67 billion bushels, up 15% from last year's production, according to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. Area to be harvested for grain, at 9.59 million acres, is up 9% from a year ago. Yield is forecast at 174 bushels per acre, up 9 bushels from last year.

Soybean production is forecast at 281 million bushels, up 1% from last year. Area for harvest, at 5.20 million acres, is down 8% from 2022. Yield is forecast at 54 bushels per acre, up 5.0 bushels from last year.

Alfalfa hay production, at 3.04 million tons, is up 24% from last year. Area for harvest, at 760,000 acres, is down 4% from a year ago. Yield of 4.00 tons per acre is up 0.90 ton per acre from 2022. All other hay production, at 3.20 million tons, is up 69% from last year. Area for harvest, at 1.60 million acres, is up 19% from a year ago. Yield of 2.00 tons per acre is up 0.60 ton from 2022.

Sorghum for grain is forecast at 17.4 million bushels, up 153% from last year. Area for harvest, at 220,000 acres, is up 76% from 2022. Yield is forecast at 79 bushels per acre, up 24 bushels from last year.

Dry edible bean production is forecast at 2.23 million cwt, down 10% from 2022. Area for harvest, at 93,000 acres, is down 14% from last year. Yield is estimated at 2,400 pounds, up 100 pounds per acre from last year.

Sugarbeet production is forecast at 1.31 million tons, up 36% from 2022. Area for harvest, at 46,000 acres, is up 16% from last year. Yield is estimated at 28.4 tons per acre, up 4.2 tons per acre from a year ago.

All sunflower production is forecast at 36.0 million pounds, down 23% from last year. Acreage for harvest, at 37,500 acres, is down 14,500 acres from 2022. Yield is forecast at 960 pounds per acre, up 59 pounds per acre from a year ago. Of the acres for harvest, non-oil sunflowers account for 7,500 acres and oil sunflowers account for 30,000 acres.



Iowa Crop Production

Iowa corn production is forecast at 2.51 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the previous year, according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Crop Production report. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 199.0 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel per acre from the September 1 forecast and down 1 bushel per acre from last year. Corn planted acreage is estimated at 13.1 million acres. An estimated 12.6 million of the acres planted will be harvested for grain.

Soybean production is forecast at 572 million bushels, down 2 percent from the previous year. The yield is forecast at 58.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from the September 1 forecast but down 0.5 bushels per acre from 2022. Soybean planted acreage is estimated at 9.95 million acres with 9.87 million acres to be harvested.

Production of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures for hay is forecast at 2.70 million tons, unchanged from the previous year. Yield is expected to average 3.70 tons per acre, unchanged from last year. Production of other hay is forecast at 640,000 tons, down 32 percent from last year. Yield for other hay is expected to average 2.00 tons per acre, unchanged from last year.

The forecasts in this report are based on October 1 conditions and do not reflect weather effects since that time. The next crop production forecasts, based on conditions as of November 1, will be released on November 9.



Nebraska Beef Passport Sees Success with Meat Processor Stops

The 2023 Nebraska Beef Passport season, AKA summer, has come to a close. The program saw another successful year of customers enjoying beef from restaurants across the state in its third year of the promotion that ran from May 1 through September 30. 29 restaurants were on the map to visit, as well as a new addition of 17 meat processors.   

With the accessibility of a digital passport, there were 1,604 digital check-ins, and 461 print check-ins from those who printed off passports. The most visited restaurant on the passport was Shoemaker’s Restaurant in Lincoln with over 80 check-ins. The Wahoo Locker was the top meat processor location with over 70 check-ins.   

“We had another great year for the Nebraska Beef Passport,” said Adam Wegner, director of marketing for the Nebraska Beef Council. “The meat processors were a great addition and people seemed to really enjoy those stops along with their visits to the restaurants.”   

133 prize redemptions have been submitted. 16 individuals reached the 30+ check-in milestone to achieve the Beef Passport Hall of Fame recognition. They will be listed on the Hall of Fame page on the Nebraska Beef Passport website and will receive a special recognition prize from the Nebraska Beef Council.   

“Nebraskan’s love beef and they really love exploring the state to find those small-town hidden gems that offer a great eating experience,” said Wegner. “We’re looking forward to continuing to grow this program and feature even more places to enjoy beef across the state.”    

The Nebraska Beef Council will be looking for new restaurants to feature in the Beef Passport program in 2024. Applications to be featured on the Beef Passport can also be found at www.GoodLifeGreatSteaks.org.



Sign-ups are now open for PFI program that lowers the risk of cutting nitrogen

Farmers in six Midwestern states who want to save on their next nitrogen bill can now sign up for a Practical Farmers of Iowa program designed to lower the risk of cutting the amount of nitrogen they apply.  

Through PFI’s N Rate Risk Protection Program, enrolled farmers who experience a yield loss after reducing their nitrogen rate will receive a per acre payment from PFI to help offset that loss. The program is open to conventional corn farmers in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota. Farmers who are new to cutting inputs and those who’ve reduced nitrogen rates previously are both eligible to apply.

“With input costs rising, farmers might want to reduce the size of that bill,” says Chelsea Ferrie, PFI’s field crops viability coordinator. “This program is perfect for farmers who have been thinking about reducing their nitrogen but are worried about the potential risk. We are excited to offer this program and help protect farmers’ bottom line.”

Nitrogen is an essential crop nutrient. But overuse can lead to excess nitrate in the soil that ends up leaching out and polluting waterways, potentially harming people, wildlife and aquatic ecosystems.

By making it less financially risky for farmers, the N Rate Risk Protection Program lets farmers experiment with lower nitrogen rates while helping them save money and enhance their land stewardship.

“A big question for many farmers is, ‘Am I overapplying fertilizer?’” Chelsea says. “This program lets farmers explore that question by taking a deeper look at their application rates to find a rate that is best for their system and the environment.”

Program participants work with a PFI agronomist to figure out the right nitrogen reduction rate for their farm but must agree to cut their rate by at least 20 pounds per acre. If they experience a yield drop below 95% of their non adjusted APH, the program will pay $35 per acre to help make up the difference.  

To be eligible for the program, farmers must:
    Raise corn in 2024
    Be willing to reduce nitrogen by at least 20 pounds per acre
    Manage corn conventionally; certified organic acres are not eligible
    Farm in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska or southeastern South Dakota

Additionally, acres cannot overlap with any privately funded cost-share program, such as a carbon market, and must already be insured with Multi-Peril Crop Insurance Revenue or Yield Protection policy.  

Enrollment is now open and will close March 31, 2024. Full details and the application form are available at practicalfarmers.org/n-rate-risk-protection-program.  

For questions, to check eligibility or for help getting signed up, contact Chelsea Ferrie at (515) 232-5661 or chelsea.ferrie@practicalfarmers.org, or visit practicalfarmers.org/n-rate-risk-protection-program.



Tom Buis, CEO for American Carbon Alliance, to Keynote 2023 National Carbon Capture Conference & Expo

Carbon Capture Magazine announced this week the keynote speaker for the National Carbon Capture Conference & Expo taking place, November 7-8, 2023 in Des Moines, Iowa.

Tom Buis, Chief Executive Officer at American Carbon Alliance, will keynote the general session panel on November 7th. Buis has been a respected leader in renewable energy for fifteen years. As the former CEO of Growth Energy, and in his current role, he is dedicated to advocating cleaner fuels and environmental sustainability. He will be speaking about carbon capture and the future of farm income.

“For farmers, carbon capture is the opportunity of a lifetime and one we cannot afford to let slip away,” said Buis. “I look forward to attending the National Carbon Capture Conference, hearing from dynamic speakers, and meeting with leaders to continue to grow this important industry.”

“We are excited to announce Tom Buis, the esteemed CEO of American Carbon Alliance, as a keynote speaker for this year’s event,” says John Nelson, vice president at BBI International. “He brings invaluable experience in leadership to the National Carbon Capture Conference. We look forward to hearing him delve into the pivotal topics of carbon capture and the future of farm income, emphasizing its immense potential for farmers. His words resonate: 'For farmers, carbon capture is the opportunity of a lifetime and one we cannot afford to let slip away.' We anticipate his keynote address on November 7th to be a highlight of the event, offering insight, direction and inspiration to all attendees."

The National Carbon Capture Conference & Expo is designed specifically for companies and organizations advancing technologies and policy that support the removal of carbon dioxide (CO2) from all sources, including fossil fuel-based power plants, ethanol production plants and industrial processes, as well as directly from the atmosphere. The program will focus on research, data, trends and information on all aspects of CCUS with the goal to help companies build knowledge, connect with others, and better understand the market and carbon utilization. Additional keynote speakers include Cody Johnson, CEO, SCS Technologies, and Jim Mullin, Executive Director of Carbon Utilization, Navigator CO2.

To view the agenda, click here https://2023-nccc.bbiconferences.com/ema/DisplayPage.aspx?pageId=Agenda1.



NFU Convenes 2023 Beginning Farmer Institute  

On Friday, October 6th and Saturday, October 7th, National Farmers Union (NFU) convened the in-person programming for the Beginning Farmer Institute (BFI) in Des Moines, Iowa.

On Friday, October 6th, participants engaged in farm business trainings, starting with a session on credit and business planning with Farm Credit Council’s Gary Matteson, followed by a dialogue on insurance with Farmers Union Midwest Agency’s Jeffrey Downing. Closing out the day, cohort members heard from Iowa State University Extension’s Patrick Hatting on succession planning, and David Holm of the Iowa Institute for Cooperatives on the cooperative business model.

“Education is at the core of our mission at Farmers Union,” said Emma McCormick, NFU Sr. Director of Engagement. “BFI is an amazing opportunity for new and beginning farmers to learn and develop, and something that sets NFU ahead of the curve on developing the next generation.”

For the programming on Saturday, October 7th, BFI participants had the opportunity to explore the Des Moines area with a set of farm tours in the region. The first stop was at the farm of Iowa Farmers Union President Aaron Lehman, who grows organic and conventional row crops in Polk County, Iowa. Following that, BFI attendees toured the Lutheran Services of Iowa Global Greens urban farm in Des Moines, along with the accompanying farmer’s market. Closing the day, participants toured the Boor family farm outside of Osceola – a family hog operation that partners with Niman Ranch.

Established in 2011, BFI was created to help address concerns about the rapidly aging farm population. According to the most recent Census of Agriculture, farmers older than 65 outnumber those younger than 35 by more than six to one, raising serious questions about who will be operating America’s farms in the coming decades.

Over the course of the programming, attendees will participate in four sessions focused on technical training, mentorship, and leadership development.

The farmers selected for the 2023-2024 Beginning Farmer Institute cohort are:
·     Anjelica Lusco (KY)
·     April Marquart (ND)
·     British Griffis (IL)
·     Hannah Alden (WI)
·     Laurel Smith (CO)
·     Lexi Linsenman (MO)
·     Mallaidh Mleziva (WI)
·     Melissa Mahon Stein (WI)
·     Romondo Woods II (MI)
·     Slade Sizemore (PA)
·     Tammy Copenhaver (MT)

NFU Foundation has continued to grow BFI through the generous support of CHS Foundation, Farm Credit, and Farmers Union Industries Foundation.



Weekly Ethanol Production for 10/6/2023

According to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association for the week ending October 6, ethanol production nudged down 0.5% to 1.004 million b/d, equivalent to 42.17 million gallons daily. Still, output was 7.7% more than the same week last year and 2.8% above the five-year average for the week. The four-week average ethanol production rate declined 0.9% to 1.000 million b/d, the lowest level since May, which is equivalent to an annualized rate of 15.33 billion gallons (bg).

Ethanol stocks drew down 1.6% to a 4-week low of 21.5 million barrels. Stocks were 1.5% less than the same week last year and 0.3% below the five-year average. Inventories thinned across all regions except the Midwest (PADD 2) and Rocky Mountains (PADD 4).

The volume of gasoline supplied to the U.S. market, a measure of implied demand, rebounded 7.1% to 8.58 million b/d (131.55 bg annualized). Demand was 3.7% more than a year ago but 3.7% below the five-year average.

Refiner/blender net inputs of ethanol perked up 1.2% to 904,000 b/d, equivalent to 13.86 bg annualized. Net inputs were consistent with the same week last year but 0.6% below the five-year average.

Ethanol exports were estimated at 120,000 b/d (5.0 million gallons/day), or 1.6% less than the prior week. There were zero imports of ethanol recorded for the third consecutive week.



Breaking Down The 2022/23 Grain Marketing Year

U.S. grains in all forms (GIAF) exports for marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 totaled 87.1 million metric tons (MMT), or 3.4 billion bushels, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and analysis by the U.S. Grains Council (USGC).

To track GIAF exports, the Council reviews exports across 10 product sectors, including U.S. corn, barley and sorghum and value-added products including ethanol, distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS) and other co-products, as well as the corn equivalent of exported meat products.

Top Three GIAF Countries
Mexico – Mexico remained the largest year-over-year market for U.S. GIAF in MY 2022/23, with exports totaling 26.8 MMT (1 billion bushels), worth $11.2 billion. Mexico is the top market for six of the 10 GIAF commodities. By commodity, Mexico was the top market for U.S. corn, barley and barley products, coarse grain products, DDGS, pork and pork products, poultry and poultry products; the second-largest market for U.S. sorghum; the third-largest market for U.S. beef and beef products; and the sixth-largest market for U.S. ethanol and corn gluten feed and meal. 

China – China remained the second-largest year-over-year market for U.S. GIAF in MY 2022/23, with exports totaling 14.3 MMT (565 million bushels), worth $7.2 billion. By commodity, China was the top market for U.S. sorghum; the second-largest market for U.S. corn, pork and pork products and poultry and poultry products; the fourth-largest market for U.S. beef and beef products; and the ninth-largest market for U.S. coarse grain products.

Japan – Japan surpassed Canada to become the third-largest U.S. GIAF market in MY 2022/23, with exports totaling 9.6 MMT (377 million bushels), worth $5.6 billion. By commodity, Japan was the top market for U.S. beef and beef products; the third-largest market for U.S. corn, pork and pork products, barley and barley products; the eighth-largest market for U.S. DDGS; and the ninth-largest market for U.S. sorghum.

Top Three Commodities
Corn – U.S. corn exports totaled 42.1 MMT (1.6 billion bushels) in 2022/23, worth $13.2 billion and down 20.6 MMT, or 32.9%, from MY 2021/22. Fifty countries purchased U.S. corn in MY 2022/23.

Ethanol – In MY 2022/23, U.S. ethanol exports experienced its fifth-largest marketing year on record, totaling 1.25 billion gallons (423 million bushels), worth $3.5 billion, down 174 million gallons, or 13 percent from MY 2021/22. Seventy-seven countries purchased U.S. ethanol in MY 2022/23.

DDGS – U.S. DDGS exports totaled 10.4 MMT (4.1 million bushels in corn equivalent) in MY 2022/23, worth $3.3 billion and down 1.2 MMT, or 10.3% from MY 2021/22. Fifty-four countries purchased U.S. DDGS in MY 2022/23.

“MY 2022/23 saw record exports of U.S. ethanol to Canada and growth in pork and pork products which helped offset decreases in other commodities and in the overall marketing year,” said Isabelle Ausdal, USGC manager of global ethanol policy and economics.



Agriculture Groups Tell Congress Farmers & Ranchers Rely On AM
Radio Ink

A coalition of agricultural organizations is the latest to urge Congress to pass the AM for Every Vehicle Act, underscoring the medium’s essential role in disseminating vital information to rural communities. The legislation, in both the House and the Senate, would mandate the inclusion of AM radio in all vehicles manufactured or imported into the United States.

As the Act moves toward a Senate floor vote, it has 165 cosponsors in the House and 34 in the Senate.

This new coalition is comprised of the Independent Beef Association of North Dakota, National Grange, the U.S. Cattlemen’s Association, Independent Cattlemen’s Association of Texas, Latino Farmers & Ranchers International, Livestock Marketing Association, National Farmers Union, North Dakota Farmers Union, and the Rural & Agriculture Council of America.

“Whether it be the routine or the unexpected, U.S. farmers and ranchers rely on the information transmitted through AM radio to make decisions that affect their everyday lives. The undersigned organizations urge Congress to prevent rural communities from losing access to their favorite local programming by ensuring that AM radio continues to be a free, standard feature in all vehicles,” the letter reads.

The organizations’ letter emphasized AM radio’s crucial role as a respected source for local news, weather, and agricultural market reports. These stations are especially important for farmers and ranchers who rely on timely information to make daily decisions.

These groups join the diverse list of AM radio’s supporters, including AARP, the Multicultural Media, Telecom, and Internet Council, ALLvanza, the National Association of Black Owned Broadcasters, the National Urban League, and OCA-Asian Pacific American Advocates.

Beyond everyday use, AM radio has proven its worth in emergencies. It can transmit signals over considerable distances and is a part of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s system for delivering critical public safety information. This is particularly crucial when other communication networks are down due to power outages or catastrophic weather events.



Applications Open for National Pork Industry Foundation Scholarship to Honor NPPC’s Dierks

The National Pork Industry Foundation, a nonprofit research and educational organization led by pork industry leaders and managed by the National Pork Producers Council, today opens applications for the Neil Dierks Scholarship to honor NPPC’s previous longtime CEO, Neil Dierks.
 
The $5,000 scholarship is given annually to a college student pursuing a graduate degree at a land-grant university in a field related to the pork industry.
 
“The National Pork Industry Foundation is privileged and excited to continue this scholarship in Neil’s name,” said Dwight Mogler, a pork producer in northwest Iowa and the NPPC representative on the foundation’s board of directors. “His more than 30 years of dedicated service to the pork industry has included countless contributions, many of which included nurturing future leaders and seeking and elevating talented people with a variety of skills to serve as pork industry resources and decision-makers for today and tomorrow. Therefore, it is very fitting that the foundation honor Neil through this scholarship opportunity.”
 
Applications for the scholarship, which are funded through contributions to the pork industry foundation, are due at the end of December, with each year’s recipient announced at the pork industry’s annual meeting – the National Pork Industry Forum – which will be held in Chicago, Illinois from March 5-7, 2024.
 
The Neil Dierks scholarship program compliments the Lois Britt Memorial Pork Industry Scholarship, which the National Pork Industry Foundation sponsors along with the CME Group. Named after the late NPPC board member Lois Britt, the program annually gives $2,500 scholarships to 10 college undergraduates intending to pursue careers in the pork industry. NPPC administers the program, and winners are announced at the National Pork Industry Forum.
 
Full eligibility and application requirements can be found here. Application deadline is December 31, 2023. Please contact Lucy Russell, NPPC Manager of Producer Engagement, with any questions about the scholarship at 515-864-7983 or russelll@nppc.org.
 
For more information on the Neil Dierks Scholarship and on making a contribution to the National Pork Industry Foundation, please visit the NPIF webpage https://nppc.org/get-involved/education-programs/national-pork-industry-foundation/.



Fall Scouting Facilitates Stronger Performance Next Season

Prep work for harvest should include scouting fields for late threats to yield. “Knowing the state of your fields helps limit harvest loss and plan for next season,” says LG Seeds Agronomist Al Bass.   

“Don’t rely on what you hear,” says Bass, noting widespread variability this season. “Get into your fields and look.”  

Bass wants farmers to keep the following five guidelines in mind this fall to improve future performance.  

#1. Check stalk quality
Stalk quality is one of Bass’s primary concerns in his Wisconsin territory this season. “Stalk degradation through the fall can cost farmers a lot of yield if they’re caught unaware,” he says.   

The pinch test or push test helps determine if lodging is a risk. The pinch test involves squeezing the stalk between the second and third internode. “If it’s spongy or collapses easily, plan on harvesting the field earlier,” Bass says.  

The push test entails pushing the stalk over to a 45-degree angle. “If more than 10% of those stalks break easily, that indicates standability issues and the need for an earlier harvest,” Bass says.  

Hybrids that stood out for impressive late-season standability in Wisconsin include LG49C28 and LG52C42, according to Bass. “This season especially, we’re seeing why stalk health should factor into hybrid selection.”

#2. Balance harvest loss with drying costs
Another major source of loss, according to Bass, is waiting until corn dries to 15% moisture to harvest fields. “While that saves on drying cost, the likely head shelling and harvest loss outweighs any savings.”  

He recommends farmers harvest when moisture is between 18% and 22%. “That strikes a good balance of minimal harvest loss and artificial drying costs,” Bass says.  

#3. Look for rot, too
Farmers checking fields should also keep an eye out for stalk or ear rot. “Despite dryness, there are a few of them out there this season — likely because the stress of dryness left the corn plant more susceptible to disease,” Bass explains. “Ear rot threats include Diplodia, Gibberella and Fusarium.”  

Stalk rot can compromise stalk quality, and some threats like Fusarium stalk rot can be difficult to spot because it doesn’t cause the black spots on the stalk associated with anthracnose, Gibberella and Diplodia.   

“If you have stalk or ear rot, you’ll want to get that crop harvested and dried down quickly to reduce the amount of mycotoxin that’ll continue to grow,” Bass says. This is another threat that can be mitigated via hybrid selection.    

#4. Assess pests and weed pressure
Bass also advises farmers to be on watch for pests that move in late in the season, like European corn borer, corn earworm or Western bean cutworm. They can threaten stalk health and shave bushels off yield.  

Thankfully, there are several trait options that offer protection. “The Agrisure Viptera® trait is a great option on corn earworm and Western bean cutworm,” Bass says, adding that the VT Double PRO® trait also protects against corn earworm. “Knowing what’s in your field and your general area can help with those trait decisions.”   

Weed pressure is also heavier this year because dryness limited the canopy for both corn and soybeans. Bass encourages farmers to keep track of the weeds they have this fall and use that to develop a herbicide program for next year.  

#5. Look at the whole picture when it comes to hybrid selection
“Plant health matters not only during the summer when leaf diseases cause problems, but also with late-season intactness,” Bass says. “Look at the whole picture. Season-long monitoring of crops leads to better hybrid choices and prevents surprises in the fall.”