Tuesday January 02, 2024 Ag News

Cattle prices and margins in 2024
Alfredo DiCostanzo, Beef Systems Extension Educator

As we look at price trends and margins in 2024, we must look at effects of production conditions and weather on beef production and cattle prices in 2023.

Clearly, the winter of 2022-2023 had severe effects on production conditions and cost of gain. Early in 2023, fed cattle prices, although beginning to gain, failed to support positive margins because of the high cost of gain resulting from cold and wet conditions. In certain areas, spring calving herds also suffered from the effects of weather on calf survival and growth.

As summer progressed and cattle prices gained from lower inventory; the US cowherd had shrunk to levels not seen since the 1970’s, there was some respite in feeding costs as corn grain prices moderated. Yet, as fed cattle prices rose past the all-time high of $170/cwt and feeders kept yards current, heat events in the area kept margins tight.

Feeder calf prices had begun to recover when the realization that more feeder cattle were placed in feedlots, likely a result of the effects of drought, poor estimation, or both, forced fed and feeder cattle prices to moderate for most of the fall. Three consecutive cattle on feed reports indicating larger placements or larger cattle on feed populations finally had a dampening effect on cattle prices as December of 2023 rolled in.

What trends observed in 2023 will carry in 2024 that will have a widening effect in cattle feeding or ranching margins?
Despite extensive drought, US corn grain production held, and corn grain exports softened. As a result, corn grain prices are trending from $4.80/bu to $5.00/bu in the March to September contracts in 2024.
The Choice-Select spread widened between the summer and fall of 2023. This is an indication that consumers are not shying away from beef.
The Weekly Economic Index, a common component of 10 different daily and weekly series covering consumer behavior, the labor market and production, rose during 2023. This reflects a positive sentiment among consumers and US economic growth.
Live and feeder cattle futures have posted gains since the middle of December.
Effects of lower cattle inventory on cattle prices will resurge once cattle placed on feed in the fall of 2023 work through the system (between April and June). This will also require that carcass weights moderate in the short term.
Temporary effects of cattle placements and on feed reports on feeder cattle prices will permit some respite in breakeven prices for cattle placed in the fall of 2023.
Feeder cattle prices will resurge in the spring. A smaller cowherd is expected to be reported later in January. This will support feeder cattle prices into the fall, and likely next year.
When ranchers determine it is time to expand the cowherd (fall of 2024?), fewer feeder calves will be available further supporting cattle prices.

Will margins widen as much as they were in the last peak in cattle prices? Likely not. Fuel, labor, and other operating costs (interest) are and will likely remain high. These conditions require that cattle ranchers and feeders protect themselves from financial and weather risk.

As always, it has been a pleasure to serve you in 2023. I look forward to working with and for you in 2024. May you have a blessed and prosperous 2024.



Cuming County Feeders Association to Host Educational Event for NE Cattlemen Members

An educational event hosted by Cuming County Feeders Association will feature Don Tyler of Tyler & Associates (Tyler & Associates – Helping Employers and Employees Work Better Together (dontyler.com)) on January 17, 2023 from 2:00 pm to 5:30 pm, at the Nielsen Center in West Point, Nebraska; a meal will be served afterwards.  This hands-on, interactive event is free to Nebraska Cattlemen members. If you are not a member of the Nebraska Cattlemen, we hope that you will consider joining and attend this education event. You can contact a Cuming County Feeders member or the Nebraska Cattlemen for more membership information.



Nebraska Dairy Ambassadors earn educational scholarships

Through application and successful participation in the Midwest Dairy Ambassador Program, the following 2023 Nebraska Dairy Ambassadors earned a $1,000 educational scholarship from Midwest Dairy.
    Jenna Albers of Randolph, Nebraska, and attends the University of Nebraska-Lincoln
    Tessa Haahr of Wynot, Nebraska, and attends Cedar Catholic High School
    Kaitlyn Hanson of Mead, Nebraska, and attends the University of Nebraska-Lincoln
    Brooke Hilgenkamp of Arlington, Nebraska, and attends Arlington Public Schools
    Jenna Muntz of Louisville, Nebraska, and attends Northeast Community College
    Brianna Klabenes of Chambers, Nebraska, and attends Chambers Public School
    Allison Engelman of Diller, Nebraska, and attends the University of Nebraska-Lincoln
    Emily Rempel of Beatrice, Nebraska, and attends the University of Nebraska-Lincoln

At the beginning of last year, Nebraska high school juniors, seniors, and college students were selected to serve as the 2023 Nebraska Dairy Ambassadors for Midwest Dairy. Throughout the year, the Nebraska Dairy Ambassadors promoted the dairy community and supported Midwest Dairy’s mission to give consumers an excellent dairy experience at a variety of industry and consumer events in Nebraska.

Helping to grow trust in dairy during their year-long experience, the Nebraska Dairy Ambassadors took part in 60 event activations and leadership opportunities and were skillful and committed to promoting dairy through media interviews and several photos posted on Nebraska’s Dairy Ambassador and Midwest Dairy Facebook pages.

The ambassadors gained insight on the dairy industry and developed their leadership skills by attending industry events and dairy tours as well as participating in virtual trainings. Events the ambassadors served as dairy industry advocates included UNL College of Agriculture Sciences and Natural Resources (CASNR) Appreciation Event, Cream of the Crop Dairy Show, Omaha Baseball Village Booth during the College World Series, Nebraska State Fair, Ag Literacy Festivals, and more.

Midwest Dairy’s Ambassador Program is an educational and leadership opportunity for high school and college students interested in promoting dairy. Dairy Ambassadors have the opportunity to connect with consumers and share dairy’s story while networking with their peers and industry professionals. To learn more about the Midwest Dairy Ambassador Program, visit www.midwestdairy.com (Ambassador Program found on the Young Dairy Leaders tab).



NEBRASKA CROP PROGRESS AND CONDITION

For the week ending December 31, 2023, topsoil moisture supplies rated 17% very short, 35% short, 44% adequate, and 4% surplus, according to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. Subsoil moisture supplies rated 28% very short, 38% short, 34% adequate, and 0% surplus.

Field Crops Report:
Winter wheat condition rated 4% very poor, 12% poor, 36% fair, 35% good, and 13% excellent.

The next report will be issued January 29, 2024.



USDA Announces Appointments to the Cattlemen’s Beef Promotion and Research Board

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) today announced the appointment of 26 members to serve on the Cattlemen’s Beef Promotion and Research Board. Twenty-five members will serve three-year terms and one member will serve a one-year term. The term of board members appointed to three-year terms start February 2024 and end February 2027.

Newly appointed members are:
    Nebraska – Gina M. Hudson, Belvidere, Neb., and Bree A. DeNaeyer, Seneca, Neb., and Don V. Cain, Jr., D.V.M., M.S., Broken Bow, Neb.
    South Dakota – David O. Uhrig, Hermosa, S.D.
    Missouri – Kalena Bruce, Stockton, Mo.
    Kansas – Marisa Kleysteuber, Garden City, Kan., and Jacquelyne Renae Leffler, Americus, Kan.
    Arkansas – Caleb Plyler, Hope, Ark.
    Colorado – Sallie R. Miller, Briggsdale, Colo.
    Florida – Sarah K. Childs, Lake Placid, Fla.
    Idaho – Tucker Shaw, Caldwell, Idaho and Gwenna R. Prescott, Carey, Idaho
    Kentucky – Andy Bishop, Cox’s Creek, Ky.
    Montana – Verna J. Billedeaux, Browning, Mont.
    North Dakota – Jason Schmidt, Medina, N.D.
    Oklahoma – Cheryl DeVuyst, Morrison, Okla., and Gaye Pfeiffer, Mulhall, Okla.
    Texas – JoJo Carrales, Flatonia, Texas and J. Ryan Moorhouse, Amarillo, Texas and Mark Sustaire, Winnsboro, Texas and Pat McDowell, Wheeler, Texas
    Southwest Unit – Melissa Daniels, Nicasio, Calif.
    Importer Unit – Doug McNicholl, Washington, DC, and Kimberly A. D’Anella, Wenonah, N.J., and Andrew Banchi, Trevor, Wis., and Matthew Allan, Washington, DC (1-year term)

The board is authorized by the Beef Promotion and Research Act of 1985 and is composed of 99 members representing 34 States and 5 units. Members must be beef producers or importers of beef and beef products nominated by certified producer organizations. More information about the board is available on the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Cattlemen's Beef Board webpage.




CVA Hosts Winter Grain Meetings

Join the Central Valley Ag Grain Team for a Customer Appreciation Meal and Market Outlook Discussion as we address some key questions for 2024 including:
  - What price potential is reasonable for old crop bushels?
  - Are commodities cycling lower? If so, what are the best practices in that environment?
  - Key themes for 2024 and 2025

Plus, one registered winner who attends a meeting will be chosen at random and receive a 10,000 bushel new crop Hedge-to-Arrive with no service fee!

CVA Winter Grain Meeting Dates
  - January 10th | 5:00 pm | Elgin, NE
  - January 17th | 10:30 am | Seward, NE
  - January 17th | 5:00 pm | Polk, NE
  - January 24th | 5:00 pm | Hinton, IA
  - January 31st | 5:00 pm | Laurel, NE
  - February 7th | 5:00 pm| Royal, NE
  - February 13th | 5:00 pm | Humphrey, NE
  - February 21st | 10:30 am | York, NE
  - February 21st | 5:00 pm | Shelby, NE

Get more information and register at https://www.cvacoop.com/wgm.  




Free ag law clinics set for January

Nebraska farmers and ranchers have access to free legal and financial clinics this month.

These one-on-one, confidential sessions feature meetings with agricultural law attorneys and financial counselors.

Specialists in farming and ranching matters, they cover essential topics like financial and business planning, transition planning, farm loan programs, debtor/creditor law, cash flow, agricultural disaster programs, and more.

This opportunity offers an independent, outside perspective on issues affecting agricultural operations.

Clinic dates and locations include:
    Thursday, Jan. 4 in Norfolk
    Thursday, Jan. 11 in Fairbury
    Tuesday, Jan. 23 in Norfolk

To register for a clinic or gather more information, individuals can contact the Nebraska Farm Hotline at 1-800-464-0258.



Northern Soy Marketing delegation heading to Southeast Asia

Northern Soy Marketing (NSM), a farmer-led board comprising the soybean checkoff boards of Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin and Minnesota, is sending a delegation of farmers and industry experts to Vietnam and Cambodia, Jan. 6-19, 2024.

“One of NSM’s goals is to grow the global demand for northern-grown soybeans,” said NSM Chair Patrick O’Leary, who farms in Benson, Minn. “We want to continue to encourage international markets to consider soybeans and soymeal from the Pacific Northwest a viable option. The best way to get that message across is face to face.”

Members of the delegation include O’Leary, Nebraska farmer and NSM board member Eugene Goering, University of Minnesota Researcher Seth Naeve and poultry nutritionist Robert Swick. The group will kick off their meetings in Hanoi, before traveling to Ho Chi Minh City and Cambodia.

“I’m excited to meet with our international purchasers and strengthen our relationship with them through one-on-one conversations,” Goering said. “It adds an important level of rapport that can’t be built through a video screen from across the ocean. And, because Nebraska is adding additional crush capacities in the next couple of years, we want to continue to promote soymeal exports.”

As the world’s sixth-largest pork and fourth-largest aquaculture producer, Vietnam is the world’s 13th-largest soy consumer. Southeast Asia is No. 2 among U.S. soy import markets.

While in-country, the delegation will meet with feed mill executives, nutritionists and purchasers. Customer visits will include Dabaco, which focuses on animal feed, poultry breeding and food processing, and Vinh Hoan/Feed One, which specializes in the farming and processing of frozen fish products. A seminar with presentations highlighting NSM’s messaging will be held in both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, with feed mill industry representatives and local media invited.

“Everything we do is geared towards our mission of increasing the profitability of soybean producers in the U.S.,” O’Leary said. “These overseas missions are an integral part of our organization.”

To cap off the mission in Southeast Asia, part of the delegation will head to Cambodia for feed mill visits and a seminar, in collaboration with the World Initiative for Soy in Human Health (WISHH).



Registration is Open for the Annual Local Food & Healthy Farms Conference

Registration is open for the 2024 Local Food and Healthy Farms Conference, which takes place Jan. 25-27 at the River’s Edge Conference Center in Columbus, Neb.

For over 40 years, the Nebraska Sustainable Ag Society’s (NSAS) annual conference has been a mainstay event for farmers to connect and share knowledge. For the third year, the conference is a collaborative partnership with University of Nebraska Extension and Nebraska Specialty Crop Growers to provide the most dynamic and comprehensive farming and local food systems conference in the state.

"Combining both Extension and NSAS’ efforts has allowed the organizing team to think creatively about how we engage this audience and build connections across the food value chain," said Ben Jewell, a Nebraska Extension educator and lead for the Nebraska Regional Food Systems Initiative. "Our attendees come from a wide range of backgrounds, as farmers, ranchers, food entrepreneurs, advocates and researchers—this diverse group being together over two days allows for more robust conversations that get at the root of the challenges facing our local food system."

The conference invites attendees to learn, connect, and collaborate for a more resilient food future.

Conference highlights include:
    More than 30 sessions on topics that span the agricultural and local food system spectrum, including farm financial and transition planning, farm skills, field crops, livestock, farm and food policy, urban agriculture and local food access, and more.
    New Thursday pre-conference workshops that will provide more in-depth training in regional food systems, communication, and farm/ranch resources.
    Keynote addresses from Nancy Williams, Co-Founder and CEO of No More Empty Pots in Omaha where she and her team have advocated and put into action their mission to improve self-efficacy, regional food security, and economic resilience of urban and rural communities; and Michael Foley, co-owner and operator of Green Uprising Farm, a small (very small), diversified, family farm in Willits, northern California. He is Director of the School of Adaptive Agriculture, also in Willits; market manager for the Willits Farmers Market; and President of the Mendocino County Farmers Market Association. And he is author of Farming for the Long Haul (Chelsea Green, 2019).
    Several opportunities to network with other farmers, researchers, sponsors, service agencies, and consumers including a Friday evening reception and exhibit hall.

"One of the main pieces of feedback we received from attendees at last year’s conference was that there wasn’t enough time for networking and engagement," said Jewell. "Our planning team this year has been intentional about building in extra time between sessions and eliminating talks during meals to allow for more in-depth engagement and connection among attendees. With around 220 stakeholders present at the 2023 Local Food and Healthy Farms conference, this event is a rare opportunity to build relationships across the food value chain in Nebraska."

Many of the sessions are developed and led by local farmers, focused on topics that are most relevant to small and mid-size food and farming operations. Other sessions focus on tribal food systems work in Nebraska, indigenous Mayan regenerative agriculture practices, and how chefs incorporate seasonally available local foods into their menus.

"A highlight of this conference is the local food dinner that is served on Friday evening," said Jewell. "Conference organizers work with chefs at the venue to plan a meal that is entirely sourced from local producers. Everything from local beef, small batch cheeses, fresh greens, and even local grains are featured in this meal."

The cost is $80 per day or $150 for both days, and includes meals and access to all conference events. Scholarships are available. Register by January 13, 2024, at sustainablenebraska.org/2024conference-registration.

The Local Food and Healthy Farms Conference is supported by several sponsors, including Rodale Institute, Center for Rural Affairs, Roberts Seeds, Viking Blue River Organic Seed, Acres USA,_Johnny’s Selected Seeds, and Buy Fresh Buy Local Nebraska.

Nebraska Sustainable Agriculture Society (NSAS) is a nonprofit organization serving farmers across the state for over 30 years with resources and networking opportunities including farm tours, grower gatherings and our keystone annual conference.



First Pork Quality Advisor Certification Session Set for January 23

The application deadline for the Iowa Pork Industry Center's first 2024 Pork Quality Assurance Advisor certification session is approaching, and those interested in attending should submit their application soon. The session date is Tuesday, Jan. 23, and the application deadline for this virtual session is Friday, Jan. 12.

Iowa State University Extension and Outreach Swine Veterinarian Chris Rademacher organizes these sessions, and said the session, including exam, will take approximately six hours to complete.

“Anyone whose certification has expired or who is a first-time advisor must do a live training like this virtual offering,” he said. “Interested and qualified people should complete and return the application form soon.”

Qualification requirements are listed on the two-page application form, available as both a fillable pdf and a Word document from the Pork Quality Assurance page on the Pork Industry Center website https://www.ipic.iastate.edu/pqatqa.html. Applicants may use either version.

Rademacher, who also is the Pork Industry Center associate director, said no individual spot is guaranteed until the application is approved and specific payment is accepted. The cost is $85 per person and includes all materials and online access. Approved applicants will receive connection information prior to the session.

Registration starts at 8:30 a.m. Central time on Jan. 23 and the session begins at 9 a.m. Connection information will be shared with approved applicants closer to the session date.

Two more certification dates will be offered in 2024 on May 14 and Oct. 28, and people can register for those at any time prior to the respective session deadline. Veterinary CEUs will be available for all sessions



Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks

Soybeans crushed for crude oil was 6.00 million tons (200 million bushels) in November 2023, compared with 6.04 million tons (201 million bushels) in October 2023 and 5.69 million tons (190 million bushels) in November 2022. Crude oil produced was 2.32 billion pounds down 2 percent from October 2023 but up 6 percent from November 2022. Soybean once refined oil production at 1.71 billion pounds during November 2023 decreased 9 percent from October 2023 but increased 5 percent from November 2022.

Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production
Total corn consumed for alcohol and other uses was 505 million bushels in November 2023. Total corn consumption was down 1 percent from October 2023 but up 1 percent from November 2022. November 2023 usage included 92.4 percent for alcohol and 7.6 percent for other purposes. Corn consumed for beverage alcohol totaled 5.35 million bushels, down 17 percent from October 2023 but up 21 percent from November 2022. Corn for fuel alcohol, at 455 million bushels, was down 1 percent from October 2023 but up 1 percent from November 2022. Corn consumed in November 2023 for dry milling fuel production and wet milling fuel production was 92.1 percent and 7.9 percent, respectively.

Dry mill co-product production of distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) was 1.80 million tons during November 2023, down 1 percent from October 2023 but up 1 percent from November 2022. Distillers wet grains (DWG) 65 percent or more moisture was 1.37 million tons in November 2023, down 1 percent from October 2023 and down 6 percent from November 2022.

Wet mill corn gluten feed production was 242,462 tons during November 2023, down 9 percent from October 2023 and down 13 percent from November 2022. Wet corn gluten feed 40 to 60 percent moisture was 202,534 tons in November 2023, down 5 percent from October 2023 and down 1 percent from November 2022.



USDA Announces January 2024 Lending Rates for Agricultural Producers

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced loan interest rates for January 2024, which are effective Jan. 2, 2024. USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) loans provide important access to capital to help agricultural producers start or expand their farming operation, purchase equipment and storage structures or meet cash flow needs.

“I encourage our lenders and borrowers alike to work with our local offices and our cooperators to capitalize fully on the existing flexibilities in these important programs,” said FSA Administrator Zach Ducheneaux.

Operating, Ownership and Emergency Loans   
FSA offers farm ownership, operating and emergency loans with favorable interest rates and terms to help eligible agricultural producers, whether multi-generational, long-time, or new to the industry, obtain financing needed to start, expand or maintain a family agricultural operation. For many loan options, FSA sets aside funding for underserved producers, including, beginning, women, American Indian or Alaskan Native, Asian, Black or African American, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, and Hispanic farmers and ranchers.  

Interest rates for Operating and Ownership loans for January 2024 are as follows:      
    Farm Operating Loans(Direct): 5.625%
    Farm Ownership Loans(Direct): 5.875%  
    Farm Ownership Loans(Direct, Joint Financing): 3.875%
    Farm Ownership Loans(Down Payment): 1.875%
    Emergency Loan (Amount of Actual Loss): 3.750%   

FSA also offers guaranteed loans through commercial lenders at rates set by those lenders.   

To access an interactive online, step-by-step guide through the farm loan process, visit the Loan Assistance Tool on farmers.gov. Once producers have a better idea of the type of loan they need for their farm operation, producers can apply for a direct farm loan online through the FSA Online Loan Application, a secure portal where producers can complete their applications and submit it for processing. Use the Online Loan Application by accessing the Loan Assistance Tool.

Commodity and Storage Facility Loans 
Additionally, FSA provides low-interest financing to producers to build or upgrade on-farm storage facilities and purchase handling equipment and loans that provide interim financing to help producers meet cash flow needs without having to sell their commodities when market prices are low.  Funds for these loans are provided through the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) and are administered by FSA.      

Commodity Loans(less than one year disbursed):  6.125%
    Farm Storage Facility Loans:   
        Three-year loan terms: 4.375%
        Five-year loan terms: 4.125%
        Seven-year loan terms: 4.250%
        Ten-year loan terms: 4.125%
        Twelve-year loan terms: 4.250%
    Sugar Storage Facility Loans(15 years): 4.375%  

Disaster Support  
FSA also reminds rural communities, farmers and ranchers, families and small businesses affected by the past year’s winter storms, drought, hurricanes and other natural disasters that USDA has programs that provide assistance. USDA staff in the regional, state and county offices are prepared to deliver a variety of program flexibilities and other assistance to agricultural producers and impacted communities. Many programs are available without an official disaster designation, including several risk management and disaster recovery options.

More Information     
USDA continues to accept applications for the Discrimination Financial Assistance Program, which provides financial assistance for farmers, ranchers and forest landowners who experienced discrimination in USDA farm lending programs prior to January 2021. All requests for assistance must be received by Jan. 13, 2024. For information on how to request assistance, producers can contact their local USDA Service Center or visit farmers.gov/loans.



U.S. dairy farmers get carbon-asset payments for using Agolin® Ruminant to create verified emissions reductions

Three carbon projects initiated in 2021 and 2022 have issued nearly $3 million in carbon-asset payments to U.S. dairy farmers who used Agolin® Ruminant to create verified emissions reductions.

A verified emissions reduction is a carbon asset that can be used as an offset or within a value chain. It represents 1 tonne of greenhouse gas emissions equivalent that is either avoided or removed from the atmosphere through an intervention that has been independently verified as part of a carbon reduction project.

Agolin Ruminant is a proprietary blend of essential oils that improves milk production and feed efficiency in beef and dairy cattle. In 2018, it became the first feed additive certified by The Carbon Trust for methane reduction in ruminants. Today, Agolin Ruminant is included in the diets of more than 2 million dairy cows worldwide, and leading carbon methodology owners Verra and Gold Standard recognize it in their international climate protection project registries.

Concord Agriculture Partners has chosen Agolin Ruminant to create a new carbon inset project which guarantees that participating dairy producers will receive an industry-leading 85% of the gross value of the carbon asset.

Carbon inset projects focus on taking steps to avoid emissions, whereas carbon offset projects are designed to reduce or remove greenhouse gas emissions from the atmosphere to compensate for emissions produced elsewhere. By focusing on the purchase of insets and using global standards, Concord’s project delivers increased market confidence and drives greater value for dairy producers.

Concord continues to work with value chain carbon buyers to ensure that they deliver the greatest value to the farmgate by helping companies throughout the agri-food value chain meet their ESG goals.

Alltech, a global leader in agriculture, acquired a majority interest in Agolin SA in May 2023. Founded in Switzerland in 2006, Agolin has developed and produced plant-based nutrition solutions that have been scientifically proven to improve herd performance, profitability and sustainability.

Agolin, now an Alltech technology, empowers farmers and ranchers to reach their sustainability and profitability goals while also supporting the performance of the cattle in their herds and supply chains. The synergistic use of Alltech and Agolin nutritional technologies leads to benefits such as improved animal welfare, greater feed efficiency and conversion, enhanced milk and meat production, increased profitability, and a reduced environmental footprint, including a boost in nitrogen efficiency.