Friday February 16 Ag News

 Rural Mainstreet Economy in Negative Territory for Sixth Straight Month

For a sixth straight month, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral, according to the February survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Overall: The region’s overall reading for February fell to 46.2 from 48.1 in January. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Higher interest rates, weaker agriculture commodity prices and a credit squeeze are having a significant and negative impact on Rural Mainstreet businesses and on Rural Mainstreet farmers,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farming and ranching land prices: The region’s farmland price index fell to a still solid 57.7 from January’s 64.0. The farmland price index has remained above growth neutral for 51 consecutive months. “Creighton’s survey continues to point to solid, but slowing, growth in farmland prices. Approximately 19.2% of bankers reported that farmland prices expanded from January levels,” said Goss.  

Almost three-fourths of bank CEOs named low farm commodity prices as the biggest risk for farms in 2024.

According to trade data from the International Trade Association, regional exports of agricultural goods and livestock for 2023 were $12.1 billion, which was down 8.7% from $13.3 billion in 2022.  

Approximately 44% of bankers indicated that the financial positions of farmers in their area had weakened over the past six months.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index for February increased to a still weak 49.5 from January’s 47.9. “This is the eighth time in the past nine months that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weaker grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.  

Banking: The February loan volume index declined to a still strong 66.0 from 71.9 in January. The checking deposit index plummeted to 48.0 from January’s 62.0. The index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments slipped to a still strong 60.0 from 62.0 in January.

More than four of 10 bankers indicated falling farm commodity prices as the biggest risk for community banks in 2024.

Below are the state reports:
Nebraska: The Nebraska RMI for February slumped to 34.4 from 39.5 in January. The state’s farmland price index for February declined to 53.1 from 60.0 in January. Nebraska’s February new-hiring index slumped to 44.2 from 45.5 in January. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2023 were $0.87 billion, which was down 35.5% from $1.35 billion in 2022.  

Iowa: February’s RMI for the state decreased to 38.8 from 44.3 in January. Iowa’s farmland price index for February declined to 54.4 from January’s 61.4. Iowa’s new hiring index for February increased to 45.7 from 45.1 in January. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2023 were $1.5 billion, which was down 26.5% from $2.1 billion in 2022.  

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index covering 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.



Nebraska 4-H accepting nominations for annual volunteer recognition awards

Nebraska 4-H is now accepting nominations for a new awards program to recognize the outstanding contributions of 4-H volunteers across the state.

The Nebraska 4-H Volunteer Recognition Awards honors adult and youth volunteers, as well as and multi-generational families, who have provided meaningful contributions to Nebraska 4-H. One Outstanding Adult Volunteer Award and One Emerging Adult Volunteer Award winner will be chosen for each of the state’s 10 Nebraska Extension Engagement zones. One statewide winner will be named in the each of the youth volunteer and multi-generational family categories.

“Our 4-H volunteers go above and beyond to serve Nebraska’s youth every year,” said Jill Goedeken, 4-H Youth Development Extension educator. “We are looking forward to another opportunity to recognize 4-H volunteers for their contributions to youth in Nebraska.”

The nomination period runs through March 15, 2024. Nominations can be submitted by any 4-H member, family, supporter, or Extension staff member. Nominees must fit the award categories and can be a volunteer for any Nebraska 4-H experience. Some examples may include 4-H club leader, project leader, junior leader, county or State Fair volunteer, special interest volunteer (such as robotics or shooting sports), afterschool club volunteer or 4-H camp volunteer. More information, along with the nomination form, is available online at: https://4h.unl.edu/volunteer-recognition.

Winners will be announced virtually in April 2024. A special awards presentation will take place at the 2024 Nebraska State Fair.



Monthly Meeting of Saunders County Livestock & Ag Association

Colon Parish Hall, 111 cherry street, Colon, NE

6:30 social -7:00 dinner - Sponsors are Corteva Pioneer, Dan Wolfe, Boehringer-Ingelheim,
Steve Spicka, Spicka Insurance.

MEMBERS ARE ASKED TO BRING A NON-PERISHABLE FOOD ITEM FOR THE FOOD PANTRY.

For more information contact Dave Vrana at 402-840-0116.  



Webinar Series: Fundamentals of Feeding the Cow

Feed costs are often the biggest expense for cow-calf producers in Nebraska. Understanding how the cow’s nutrient requirements change throughout the year and how to cost-effectively meet those requirements with the feed resources available can have a big effect on the bottom line.  

Nebraska Extension will be hosting a four-session webinar series in March that will explain the fundamentals of understanding a cow's nutrition requirements and the options available to meet a cow's needs with grazed or harvested feed. The series will be held Monday and Thursday evenings, March 11, 14, 18 and 21, from 7:30 - 8:45 p.m. CT.

Topics will include:
    What impacts a cow's nutrient requirements and how do they change throughout the year?
    How do you read and understand a feed test analysis as well and a feed tag? What do the numbers mean?
    When comparing feed options, which is the best buy when all things are considered?        
    What are things to consider when developing a year-round feeding plan?  

The cost of the course is $50 and includes a notebook of Nebraska Extension resources. The course is limited to 35 participants. To register, visit https://go.unl.edu/feedingthecow. Participants are asked to register by March 4 to ensure webinar resources are received before the series begins. A computer and internet connection will be needed to participate in the webinar series.

For questions about the webinar series, please contact Aaron Berger, Nebraska Extension Educator, at 308-235-3122 or aberger2@unl.edu.



RFA Applauds Lawmakers for Demanding the Use of Sound Science in SAF Carbon Modeling

The Renewable Fuels Association today thanked a bipartisan group of 43 lawmakers in both houses of Congress who sent a letter to the Biden administration’s Sustainable Aviation Fuels Lifecycle Analysis Interagency Working Group, asking them to meet their March 1 deadline for updates to the GREET model and ensure the updates are based on sound science, current data, and methodologies that properly recognize modern practices in agriculture and biofuel production.

“RFA applauds this bipartisan group of lawmakers led by Sens. Klobuchar, Thune and Duckworth, and Reps. Craig, Pocan, Johnson and Smith for pushing the Biden administration to ensure the proper implementation of sustainable aviation fuel tax credits,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. "We thank these lawmakers for urging the administration to utilize the best available science and data when determining eligibility for the SAF tax credit established in the Inflation Reduction Act. A transparent and scientifically sound approach is crucial to stimulating investment in domestic SAF production, fostering innovation and creating American jobs."

The bicameral letter was led by Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), John Thune (R-SD) and Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), and Reps. Angie Craig (D-MN), Mark Pocan (D-WI), Dusty Johnson (R-SD) and Adrian Smith R-NE).

“Biofuels drive economic growth, create good-paying manufacturing jobs and strengthen economies across rural America,” the lawmakers write. “As you continue to develop a model to determine eligibility, we ask that you take measures to permit every participant in the SAF lifecycle to appropriately participate in the carbon reduction process.”



I-29 Moo University to present “Impact of Starter Starch Content on Pre-weaning Performance of Beef on Dairy Cross Calves” webinar on March 5

The I-29 Moo University 2024 Dairy Webinar Series continues Tuesday, March 5 from 12 noon to 1 p.m. CDT. The webinar will feature a discussion on the impact of starter starch content on pre-weaning performance of beef on dairy cross calves with Taylor Klipp.

Rumen development is important for dairy-raised calves. Starch is a driver for weight gain and rumen development, but high-concentrate diets fed over an extended period increase the risk of acidosis and liver abscesses later in life. Beef × dairy calves are proving to be profitable for dairy farmers and a consistent product for packers. Klipp will show how to capitalize on this opportunity and dial in your management practices to efficiently raise quality beef × dairy calves.

Taylor Klipp is originally from Hanover, KS where she grew up raising calves on her family's dairy farm. Besides the home farm, she has held multiple internship and part-time positions in calf barns on farms across Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa, and Ohio. Besides dairy experience, she interned for an Angus and SimAngus seed stock ranch in Kansas and plays a role in her fiancé's Black Angus cow-calf operation in western Nebraska. Currently, Klipp is finishing up her Master of Animal Science at Iowa State under the direction of Dr. Gail Carpenter, with research focusing on Beef on Dairy calves. Following graduation, she plans to be a calf consultant in the Kansas-Nebraska area. Taylor is passionate about calves and enjoys finding the "why".

There is no fee to participate in the webinar; however, registration is required at least one hour before the webinar. Register online at: https://go.iastate.edu/DBRESEARCH.  

For more information, contact: in Iowa, Fred M. Hall, 712-737-4230; in Minnesota, Jim Salfer, 320-203-6093; or in South Dakota, Patricia Villamediana, 605-688-4116.



Council Recognizes Iowa’s Tim Burrack For 15 Years Of Service

The U.S. Grains Council (USGC) recognized Iowa farmer Tim Burrack for his 15 years of service to the organization at its 21st International Membership Meeting and 64th Annual Membership Meeting in Guatemala City, Guatemala, held Feb. 14-16.

Burrack grows corn and soybeans on a 2,000-acre farm in Northeast Iowa and is a member of the Iowa Corn Growers’ Association (ICGA). He sits on the Council’s Ethanol Advisory Team (A-Team) and previously served on the Council’s board of directors as its corn sector director. He has also represented the Council on missions to China, Japan, Taiwan and the European Union.

Misfortune turned to opportunity for Burrack 33 years ago when a broken arm left him temporarily unable to work on his farm, which allowed him to turn his attention to running to be a director on the ICGA board.

“I was 40 years old and all I had done at that point in time was work on the farm and tend livestock,” Burrack said. “I thought, ‘there’s got to be more out there in life,’ and so I got involved with the ICGA and the Iowa Corn Promotion Board.”

During his time with the Council, Burrack said the major change he’s seen is the emergence of ethanol within the agricultural community and the evolution of the Council’s work to market it and its coproducts in addition to feed grains.

“The ethanol industry was just getting going when I started, and suddenly it took off and then we had distiller’s dried grains with solubles too,” Burrack said. “The Council picked ethanol up and it’s keeping everybody busy. It’s just a great organization and I believe the Council is the best partnership between the public and private sectors out there.”

Burrack is still actively farming and will plant his 51st crop this year. His spare time is devoted to staying involved at meetings and conferences to speak with fellow producers about future corn markets and the Council’s work.

Please join the Council in congratulating Tim for his accomplishment!



USDA Outlook: Growing Supplies, Lower Prices in First Look at 2024-25 Crops

USDA sees farmers planting 91 million acres (ma) of corn, 87.5 ma of soybeans and 47 ma of wheat in 2024, according to a Commodity Outlook report released in conjunction with the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum.

Overall, the agency sees total acreage for the three crops declining 1% to 225.5 million acres, reflecting lower prices and "a reversion to a more typical level of prevent plant acres."

CORN
For the 2024-25 marketing year, USDA's outlook is for lower production, greater domestic use, increased exports, and higher ending stocks.

Overall, it anticipates farmers will produce 15.040 billion bushels (bb) in the upcoming crop year, using a planting estimate of 91 million acres and trend-adjusted yield estimate of 181 bushels per acre (bpa). Including higher beginning stocks from 2023's surprisingly large crop, total supplies are forecast at 17.237 bb.

As is typical in years with higher supplies, USDA sees greater use. Food, seed and industrial use is forecast at 6.805 bb, with corn for ethanol production estimated at 5.4 bb, "based on expectations of modestly higher motor gasoline consumption and continued strength in ethanol exports."

Feed and residual use is also expected to climb about 1% to 5.75 bb, while exports are forecast to be up 50 mb to 2.15 bb "on expectations of modest global trade growth."

That puts ending stocks at 2.532 bb, 360 million bushels (mb) higher than the 2023-24. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to climb to 17.2%, which would be the highest since 2005-6 if realized.

The season-average corn price received by producers is forecast down 40 cents to $4.40 per bushel.

SOYBEANS
USDA's outlook for soybeans calls for higher supplies, use and ending stocks, a recipe for lower prices.

Supplies are forecast to climb 8% above 2023-24 with increased beginning stocks and production. USDA anticipates farmers will produce 4.5 bb, up 8% year-over-year, assuming a weather-adjusted trend yield of 52 bpa and a 4.2 million acre increase in harvested area from 2023-24.

As U.S. crush capacity expands, USDA sees domestic crush climbing to a record 2.4 bb. "Reduced soybean meal prices will likely make soybean meal a more competitive feed ingredient and may prompt stronger demand in the global livestock and poultry sectors after several years of high prices," the report notes. Soybean meal exports are also forecast to set new records.

Renewable diesel will continue to drive soybean oil demand, with soybean oil for biofuel expected to grow by 8% to 14 billion pounds.

Soybean exports are also forecast to climb in 2024-25 by 155 mb to 1.875 bb.

Ending stocks for 2024-25 are projected at 435 mb, up 120 mb from the 2023-24 season. That would put the ending stocks-to-use ratio at nearly 10%, the highest since 2019-20. The season-average farm price is projected at $11.20 per bushel, down $1.45 from 2023-24.

Take a look at the outlook reports here: https://www.usda.gov/oce/ag-outlook-forum/commodity-outlooks.  



Tight Supplies Expected to Boost Cattle and Hog Prices in 2024

Tighter cattle supplies are expected to increase record feeder and fed cattle prices in 2024; pork producers will see better pricing conditions as well.

USDA's Livestock and Poultry Outlook for 2024 shows limited production growth in overall U.S. red meat and poultry in 2024 as the impacts of the multiyear drought continue to affect supplies of red meat and poultry.

USDA released its outlook report for different sectors of agriculture on Thursday as part of the USDA Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia.

CATTLE AND BEEF
Commercial beef production in 2024 is forecast at 26.19 billion pounds, down 3% from 2023. In the first half of the year, steer and heifer slaughter will reflect slightly higher numbers of cattle in feedlots at the beginning of the year, but production will fall as feedlot numbers diminish later in the year. Cow slaughter also is expected to decline due to lower investment and expectations that any response to improving returns or forage will likely cause producers to retain more cows later in the year. Heavier cattle weights will partly offset lower slaughter numbers.

The 5-Area steer price for 2024 is forecast at a record $180 per cwt, topping 2023's record of $175.54 per cwt. Cattle prices will be supported by tighter supplies of steers and heifers in feedlots as the year progresses and firm packer demand.

Feeder prices are expected to top 2023's record prices as feedlots have to bid-up for tighter cattle supplies. Improved pasture conditions may lead to increased competition for lighter-weight cattle, increasing costs for stocker operations. Feeder steer prices for 750- to 800-pound calves in 2024 are forecast at $248.50 per cwt, up from $218.69 in 2023.

BEEF EXPORTS LOWER, IMPORTS HIGHER
Beef exports are expected to fall in 2024 to 2.79 billion pounds, following 2023's decline of 14% in beef exports. Exports in 2023 were lower to Japan, South Korea, Canada, Taiwan and China, though there were increases in exports to Mexico and Hong Kong. Higher prices and increased supplies by competitors limited U.S. competitiveness while other countries also are facing sluggish economies. U.S. exports are likely to be pressured by tight U.S. supplies of beef and higher prices making U.S. beef exports less competitive. Beef production in export countries such as Australia and Brazil also are likely to increase competition in several markets.

Beef imports are pegged at 4.13 billion pounds, an increase of 11% in 2024, following 10% higher imports in 2023. While imports of beef from Brazil are constrained by over-quota duties, strong U.S. processing prices will continue to make the U.S. an attractive market. Higher production in Australia also is expected to drive more imports into the U.S.

HOGS AND PORK
Higher pig numbers in the second half of 2023 and first half of 2024 will boost commercial pork production to 27.88 billion pounds for the year, about 2% higher than 2023. Along with higher supplies, carcass weights are also expected to increase after declining in 2023.

National base 51%-52% lean high prices -- live equivalent -- are forecast to increase in 2023. Despite more hog inventory, expected increases in both domestic and export demand are forecast to provide support for higher prices.

Hog prices are expected to average $60.00 per hundredweight in 2024, which is $1.41 more than what the market saw in 2023.

Pork exports in 2024 are forecast to increase about 4% to 7.08 billion pounds. Still, U.S. exporters will see increased competition in a number of key markets because of higher supplies in Brazil. Pork exports were 7% higher in 2023 to 6.82 billion pounds with higher volumes going to Mexico, Canada, South Korea, Central America and the Caribbean, offsetting an 18% decline in sales to China.

Pork imports are expected to rise in 2024 to 1.2 billion pounds, 5% higher than 2023 numbers.

Take a look at the outlook reports here: https://www.usda.gov/oce/ag-outlook-forum/commodity-outlooks.  



NFU Announces Featured Speakers and Events for 122nd Anniversary Convention in Scottsdale

National Farmers Union (NFU) will host the organization’s 122nd Anniversary Convention in Scottsdale, Arizona, from March 10 through March 12.

The NFU Convention is the annual opportunity for Farmers Union members from across the country to set the organization’s grassroots policy priorities for the coming year, informed by the elected officials and policy experts they hear from throughout the event. This year’s convention programming will emphasize the importance of democratic institutions, both within Farmers Union and nationally. Review the full agenda at nfu.org/convention.

WHAT: NFU 122nd Anniversary Convention
WHO:
·     The Honorable Tom Vilsack, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture (invited)  
·     Sarah Suggs, President & CEO, Sandra Day O’Connor Institute for American Democracy
·     Rod Snyder, Senior Advisor for Agriculture to the EPA Administrator  
·     Rob Larew, President, National Farmers Union
·     Bill Zortman, KELO-AM, Milt Hakel Award for Excellence in Agricultural Journalism Recipient
·     Chuck Conner, President and CEO, National Council of Farmer Cooperatives
·     Keri Jacobs, Associate Professor of Agricultural and Applied Economics and Partridge Chair in Cooperative Leadership, University of Missouri
·     Doug O’Brien, President and CEO, National Cooperative Business Association CLUSA International

Livestreams of major convention programming will be hosted on the National Farmers Union YouTube channel.