Friday September 13 Crop Production + Ag News

 USDA forecasts US corn production down, soybean and cotton production up from 2023

Corn production is down, while soybean and cotton production is up from 2023, according to the Crop Production report issued today by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Corn production is down 1% from last year, forecast at 15.2 billion bushels; soybean growers are expected to increase their production 10% from 2023, forecast at 4.59 billion bushels; cotton production is up 20% from 2023 at 14.5 million 480-pound bales.

As is done every year in September, planted and harvested acreage estimates for corn, cotton, and soybeans were reviewed based on all available data, including the latest certified acreage data from the Farm Service Agency. As a result, area planted to corn is estimated at 90.7 million acres, unchanged from the previous estimate; area planted to soybeans is estimated at 87.1 million acres, unchanged from the previous estimate; and area planted to cotton is estimated at 11.2 million acres, up slightly from the previous estimate.

The average U.S. corn yield is forecast at 183.6 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from last month’s forecast, and up 6.3 bushels from last year. NASS forecasts record high yields in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, New York, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Acres planted to corn, at 90.7 million, are down 4% from 2023. Area to be harvested for grain is forecast at 82.7 million acres, unchanged from last month, but 4% less than was harvested last year. As of Sept. 1, 65% of this year’s corn crop was reported in good or excellent condition, 12 percentage points above the same time last year.

Area for soybean harvest is forecast at 86.3 million acres, unchanged from last month, but 5% more than was harvested last year. Planted area for the nation, estimated at 87.1 million acres, is up 4% from last year. Soybean yields are expected to average 53.2 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month’s forecast, but up 2.6 bushels from 2023. If realized, the forecasted yields in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Mississippi, New York, and Texas will be record highs.

NASS forecasts all cotton area to be harvested at 8.63 million acres, up slightly from last month’s forecast, and 34% more acres than were harvested last season. Yield is expected to average 807 pounds per harvested acre, down 33 pounds from last month’s forecast, and down 92 pounds from 2023. Area planted to all cotton is estimated at 11.2 million acres, up 9% from last year.

NASS surveyed more than 6,900 producers across the country and conducted objective yield surveys for corn and soybeans in preparation for this report.



NEBRASKA CROP PRODUCTION REPORT

Based on September 1 conditions, Nebraska's 2024 corn crop is forecast at 1.89 billion bushels, up 9% from last year's production, according to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. This would be a new record high production if realized. Area harvested for grain, at 9.70 million acres, is up 2% from a year ago. Average yield is forecast at 195 bushels per acre, up 13 bushels from last year. This would be a new record high yield if realized.

Soybean production is forecast at 310 million bushels, up 16% from last year. Area for harvest, at 5.25 million acres, is up 1% from 2023. Yield is forecast at 59 bushels per acre, up 7.5 bushels from a year ago.

Sorghum for grain production of 16.8 million bushels is up 2% from a year ago. Area for harvest, at 230,000 acres, is up 2% from 2023. Yield is forecast at 73 bushels per acre, unchanged from last year.

Sugarbeet production is forecast at 1.47 million tons, up 10% from 2023. Area for harvest, at 46,700 acres, is up slightly from last year. Yield is forecast at 31.5 tons per acre, up 2.9 tons from a year ago.

Dry edible pea production is forecast at 470 thousand cwt, up 15% from a year ago. Area for harvest, at 24,000 acres, is up 26% from 2023. Yield is forecast at 1,960 pounds per acre, down 190 pounds from last year.

IOWA - Iowa corn production is forecast at 2.62 billion bushels, up 4 percent from the previous year, according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Crop Production report. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 212.0 bushels per acre, up 3.0 bushels per acre from the August 1 forecast and up 11.0 bushels from last year. Corn planted acreage is estimated at 12.9 million acres. An estimated 12.4 million of the acres planted will be harvested for grain, unchanged from the previous forecast.

Soybean production is forecast at 628 million bushels, up 10 percent from 2023. The yield is forecast at 63.0 bushels per acre, up 2.0 bushels per acre from the August forecast and 5.0 bushels higher than 2023. Soybean planted acreage is estimated at 10.1 million acres. An estimated 9.97 million of the acres planted will be harvested, unchanged from the previous forecast.

The forecasts in this report are based on September 1 conditions and do not reflect weather effects since that time. The next crop production forecasts, based on conditions as of October 1, will be released on October 11.



NeFU Brings Seven Participants to the National Farmers Union Fly-In

Seven Nebraska Farmers Union (NeFU) members were among the 300 Farmers Union members from around the nation who participated in the 2024 National Farmers Union (NFU) Fall Fly-In this past week in Washington, D.C. The NeFU group had individual meetings with the Nebraska Congressional Delegation as well as Representatives from West Virginia.  

In addition to meeting with Congressional Representatives, the delegation heard from prominent government officials, including Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Michael Regan, Assistant Attorney General for the Antitrust Division Jonathan Kanter and Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Chair Lina Khan who all participated in briefings that included a questions and answers section with Farmers Union members.

NeFU Vice President Vern Jantzen of Plymouth headed up the Fly-In this year.  In addition to Jantzen, Farmers Union Midwest Agency (FUMA) General Manager Jeff Downing of Elkhorn; FUMA agent and Lancaster County Farmers Union President Mark Kavan of Lincoln; FUMA agent Lillian Fritch of Beatrice; Lois Beethe of Elk Creek; NeFU District 7 Board of Director Art Tanderup of Neligh and Jonathan Leo of Omaha attended.

Monday morning USDA Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack spent over an hour briefing and answering questions with all the participants in the Monday morning briefing at USDA’s Jefferson Auditorium. His presentation included his updated White Board presentation.

In addition, Deputy Secretary of Agriculture Xochitl Torres Small, USDA Farm Service Agency Administrator Zach Ducheneaux, and USDA Under Secretary for Farm Production and Conservation Robert Bonnie also made presentations and answered questions.

Vice President Vern Jantzen, a veteran of many NFU Fly-Ins said, “While the meetings with our Congressional Delegation went very well, and the briefings with various Department officials were very productive, our number one priority for this Fly-In was to move the passing of a new and improved Farm Bill to the finish line. Farmers and ranchers need a permanent Farm Bill in place before September 30th. We did not see the urgency that we think is needed to get the Majority and Minority leaders of the House and Senate Ag Committees to the table to negotiate a fully funded Farm Bill that can pass both Houses of Congress. That lack of urgency means Congress is failing to respond to the growing financial squeeze farmers and ranchers are facing, especially in the wheat, oilseeds, and grains areas.

Jantzen thanked the NFU Fly-In participants from Nebraska and around the country for taking time away from their operations to attend. “There is no better or more effective voice than the 300 honest and genuine voices of family farmers and ranchers from around the nation who are directly impacted by the many issues we discussed with our public officials. Good for us for standing up for our interests.”



House Passes Fischer-Backed Legislation to Protect American Agriculture

U.S. Senator Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, cosponsored the Senate version of the bicameral, bipartisan Protecting American Agriculture from Foreign Adversaries Act of 2024, which passed the U.S. House of Representatives by a vote of 269-149 yesterday.

The Protecting American Agriculture from Foreign Adversaries Act of 2024 will make the Secretary of Agriculture a permanent member of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). The Secretary’s inclusion in the committee adds another layer of scrutiny onto foreign acquisitions of U.S. farmland and agricultural businesses.

The bipartisan legislation will also flag farmland purchases by foreign adversaries like China, North Korea, Russia, and Iran for CFIUS. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), over 43.4 million acres of U.S. agricultural land are foreign-owned.

The Protecting American Agriculture from Foreign Adversaries Act of 2024 would:
    Permanently include the Secretary of Agriculture as a member of CFIUS to review covered transactions involving agricultural land, agricultural biotech, or the transportation, storage, and processing of agricultural products.
    Authorize the Secretary of Agriculture to report agricultural land transactions that involve foreign persons of China, North Korea, Russia, or Iran, as well as transactions that require Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act (AFIDA) reporting to CFIUS.

“Allowing our adversaries to have any form of control over our food supply is a dangerous game, and one we should never play. Our commonsense legislation will protect America’s interests by ensuring that any foreign investments in the agricultural sector are thoroughly vetted,” said Senator Fischer.

Senator Mike Braun (R-Ind.) led the introduction of the bill in the U.S. Senate, and U.S. Representative Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) led the bill in the U.S. House of Representatives. In addition to Senators Fischer and Braun, the legislation is cosponsored by Senators Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.), Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), John Fetterman (D-Pa.), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.).



Nebraska Cattlemen Accepting Nominations for Young Cattlemen’s Connections Class of 2025

Nebraska Cattlemen is accepting nominations for the Young Cattlemen’s Connections (YCC) Class of 2025 until Tuesday, October 22, 2024.

YCC is a longstanding Nebraska Cattlemen tradition aiming to keep the future of our industry innovative and knowledgeable. This program helps emerging leaders understand the industry structure, issues management, product research and marketing, and teaches participants how to become effective communicators.

The YCC program is a two-year commitment and each class is compromised of no more than ten people. Alongside a summer or fall meeting each year, the upcoming Class of 2025 will have meetings in Lincoln on January 20-23, 2025, and January 27-30, 2026.

Nominees will be required to fill out an application for the selection committee to review. Individuals and Nebraska Cattlemen Affiliates are asked to limit nominations to only one outstanding individual. The YCC Class of 2025 will be announced on November 15, 2024.

For more information please visit, www.nebraskacattlemen.org. Questions can be directed to Bonita Lederer at (402) 450-0223 or by email at blederer@necattlemen.org.

YCC is made possible by generous sponsorships from Nebraska Cattlemen Foundation, Neogen and Farm Credit Services of America.



Nebraska Cattlemen Supports Deb Fischer for U.S. Senate

The Nebraska Cattlemen (NC) Board of Directors are proud to announce their support of incumbent Deb Fischer for the United States Senate.

“Nebraska Cattlemen is proud to support our fellow beef cattle producer, Deb Fischer, for United States Senate. From animal rights activists trying to end our way of life to Washington bureaucrats who have never stepped foot on a ranch trying to tell cattle producers in the Beef State how to operate their businesses, we need proven leadership fighting for us in the Senate.” Executive Vice President Laura Field continued, “There is no one more qualified than Deb Fischer to speak on behalf of Nebraska’s beef cattle producers. We look forward to continuing to work with her to protect the livelihoods of cattlemen and keep the beef cattle industry strong.”

"I am honored to receive the support of the Nebraska Cattlemen," said Deb Fischer. "As a family rancher and longtime member of the Nebraska Cattlemen, I know firsthand that agriculture is the bedrock of Nebraska’s economy and an integral part of our way of life. Together, we’ve worked on many critical issues like crafting a Farm Bill that prioritizes the needs of Nebraska’s farmers and ranchers, introducing the Real MEAT Act to end the deceptive labeling of imitation meat products, and pushing back on an out-of-control EPA. I look forward to continuing to work with the Nebraska Cattlemen to ensure our ag community has a trusted ally fighting for them.”



Strategies for Maintaining Nutrient Quality When Applying Manure Early

After a wet spring, storage capacity might be tighter than usual, especially for out-of-barn manure storages, and an increasing potential for a slightly later harvest and application season. Daniel Andersen, associate professor of agricultural and biosystems engineering at Iowa State University, said if manure storages are nearing their limits, the risk of an overflow event becomes a pressing concern.

"Overflow events are not just messy, but they can also lead to serious environmental problems and potential regulatory fines," he said. "In such cases, it's better to apply manure earlier than planned."

Once you've decided that an early fall application is necessary, the next step is to ensure the nutrients in the manure are still available to your crops in the next growing season. Andersen offers a few strategies to help you achieve this availability.

"Instead of applying all your manure at once, consider applying just enough to free up storage space and push your main application to later in the fall, when temperatures are cooler," he said. "Cooler temperatures slow down the conversion of nitrogen into forms that are more likely to be lost before the crops can use them."

If you have to apply manure early, planting cover crops can be one of the best defenses. Cover crops absorb the nitrogen applied with manure, holding it in place and preventing it from leaching out of the soil.

"You might want to cut back on your manure application rate slightly when using cover crops,” Andersen said. "This will leave some room in your nitrogen budget for supplemental applications at planting or shortly after, helping to offset any nitrogen that gets tied up as the cover crop residue decomposes."

Although nitrification inhibitors aren't a perfect solution for long-term nutrient preservation, they can be effective in the short term. If manure is applied in early September, a nitrification inhibitor can help keep nitrogen in its ammonium form for a few weeks, reducing the risk of nitrogen loss before the crop is ready to take it up.

“While early fall isn't ideal for manure application, safety concerns and logistical challenges sometimes make it necessary,” he said.

The key is to take proactive steps to ensure that the nutrients in your manure are preserved and ready for your crops in the next growing season.

"By safely agitating your pits, using pit treatments, planting cover crops, adjusting your application rates and considering nitrification inhibitors, you can manage the risks associated with early application while reaping the benefits of your manure," Andersen said. "Remember, the goal is to keep your operation safe and efficient while maximizing the value of your manure. With careful planning and the right strategies, you can achieve both."



Farm Bill Prospects, Prop 12 Impacts Highlight NPPC's Legislative Conference
 
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and Senator John Boozman (R-AR) met with 120 pork producers at the National Pork Producers Council’s (NPPC) Fall Legislative Action Conference, discussing prospects for a 2024 Farm Bill and a federal solution to California’s Proposition 12.
 
The Prop. 12 ballot initiative, which went into effect earlier this year, imposes serious financial burdens on pork producers, raises food prices on consumers, and sets a dangerous precedent enabling each state to develop differing regulations on out-of-state producers.
 
Due to Prop. 12, Californians are experiencing less pork and higher costs. Vilsack also acknowledged that pork producers don’t have the luxury of deciding which state(s) to market their products.
 
Prop. 12 inflicts construction costs for producers up to $4,000 per sow and has already caused a 20 percent surge in California’s pork prices. USDA economists also found that the volume of pork sales in California has declined significantly since the new law was implemented, with California now accounting for two percent less of total U.S. fresh pork sales.
 
Vilsack also emphasized that these price increases make it harder to include pork products in nutrition programs that support vulnerable populations and that shrinking farms mean more good jobs are likely to be exported out of state, or even out of the U.S.
 
Boozman, the Ranking Member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, told NPPC members that he remains optimistic about a Farm Bill passing this year.
 
“We are working hard to get a Farm Bill done. I’m very concerned about Prop 12. Chair Stabenow and I have both shared frameworks, and importantly, G.T. Thompson got a bipartisan Farm Bill out of his committee,” he said. “Agriculture needs to stick together... to get this done,” he said.   
 
To educate policymakers on the critical need for a Farm Bill to pass this year with a fix to Prop 12, NPPC hosted a pop-up food truck on Capitol Hill offering maple bacon donuts and information on the existential threat of Prop. 12 and other similar laws. The “Food Truck from a Post-Prop 12 America” accepted “Bacon Bucks,” highlighting the price hikes American consumers could face if Prop. 12 is left unchecked.
 
Boozman, House Agriculture Committee Chairman G.T. Thompson, Representatives Mark Alford (R-MO), Mike Bost (R-IL), Dusty Johnson (R-SD), John Moolenaar (R-MI), Zach Nuun (R-IA), Max Miller (R-OH), Jen Kiggans (R-VA), and congressional staff were among the hundreds who visited the food truck.



Corn and Soybean Growers Critical of Commerce Announcement on Herbicide Tariffs

The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) and the American Soybean Association (ASA) expressed frustration today with a recently released recommendation by the U.S. Department of Commerce to impose preliminary countervailing duty rates on imports of the herbicide 2,4-D.

The decision comes at the behest of domestic herbicide producer Corteva Agriscience, which filed a petition earlier this year calling for antidumping and countervailing duties on imports of herbicide 2,4-D from certain foreign suppliers. Farmers have said that their demand exceeds the domestic supply of the product, and foreign sources help fill this gap.

“Access to this herbicide is critical for corn growers. Because there is only one domestic supplier manufacturing 2,4-D, growers in the U.S. must look to foreign suppliers to help meet our needs,” said Minnesota farmer and NCGA President Harold Wolle. “We would welcome ideas from Corteva on how to ensure that this herbicide is available and affordable for American growers.”

Other grower leaders also spoke out about the reccommended duty rates.

“This decision to raise duties on imports is disappointing for soybean growers nationwide,” said Josh Gackle, president of the American Soybean Association and a soybean farmer from North Dakota. “We rely on imported generic 2,4-D in combination with other herbicides, to manage weeds efficiently before planting. The increased costs could strain our operations during an already difficult time.”

The proposed duties would place a substantial tariff on herbicide imports, which has the potential to impact availability throughout rural America.  

“This couldn’t come at a worse time,” Wolle noted. “The price of corn has declined by more than 40% over the last two years, and the average cost of producing corn was higher than the average selling price of corn in 2023. We are expecting that margin of loss to be even worse in 2024—even before taking this new trade case into account.”

Gackle added, “This is just the beginning of a lengthy process. ASA remains committed to advocating for soybean farmers by engaging with Congress, Commerce and the ITC. We will continue fighting against these duties and work toward a resolution that supports U.S. farmers and their bottom lines as the antidumping and countervailing investigations continue.”

Commerce’s announcement follows the International Trade Commission’s vote to move forward with the investigation earlier this year. Commerce is expected to announce final duty rates at some point next year. The International Trade Commission, which has the power to dismiss this case in its entirety, will fully hear the case and make its final determination in 2025.



New Report Highlights Critical Role of Commodity Checkoffs in National Security

The Directions Group agri-food team, formerly known as Aimpoint Research, released The Future of Agriculture Checkoffs research report today highlighting the crucial and unique role checkoffs play in bolstering national security, enhancing social betterment, and promoting environmental sustainability.

“The strategic importance of checkoffs cannot be overstated. U.S. checkoff programs are distinctly American, and uniquely address the broad needs of all U.S. producers while safeguarding national security,” said Mark Purdy, The Directions Group Executive Vice President of Agri-Food. “The research uncovered specific areas where checkoff organizations can focus to be prepared for future complexities in agriculture and the food system. This will allow them to continue their role in supporting the economic stability of the agricultural sector.”

Over the past four decades, U.S. agriculture checkoff programs have been instrumental in driving domestic demand, expanding export markets, fostering innovation, and promoting sustainability. Recently, these programs have experienced a surge in political and legal scrutiny, prompting questions about their ongoing value.

Analysts leveraged multiple research methods to develop the report, including producer research, expert interviews, market intelligence, and a strategic wargame. Future state projections on geopolitics and the agri-food system, along with insights from the ‘Farmer of the Future’ report, are also incorporated. The research findings point to specific areas of checkoff impact and areas of opportunity to ensure checkoff organizations continue to serve a broad cross-section of U.S. producers.

Key findings include:
    Checkoffs are foundational to national security with their U.S.-centric, producer-focused mission.
    The commodity and research advancements driven by the checkoffs are essential to social betterment through nutrition-based human health.
    Checkoffs are important for environmental sustainability through their ability to invest, pilot and scale innovation, bridging the gap from producer to consumer.
    The research uncovered specific areas where checkoff organizations can evolve to optimally serve U.S. producers in the future, such as the need for agility, tiered innovation strategies and a segmented approach to producer programming.

“Considering the geopolitical environment and the importance that our competitors and adversaries place on agriculture, the United States must comprehensively promote commodities and support access to research and innovation for all farmers. To maintain and strengthen America's agricultural leadership, checkoffs must continue to fulfill these roles,” said Purdy. “It’s worth noting that checkoffs must continue to improve and evolve to position U.S. producers for future success, and the report provides a starting point for checkoff organizations to continue on that path.”



American Dairy Coalition prepares comment on USDA’s proposed milk pricing changes

Comments on USDA’s proposed Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) pricing formula changes close on Friday night, Sept. 13 at 11:59 p.m. EDT at the Federal Register Docket AMS-DA-23-0031-0002. American Dairy Coalition has prepared its official comment to file and invites others consider signing on.

USDA’s proposed milk pricing changes could reduce farm milk prices, and substantially so in some regions, where proposed increases in Class III make allowances would take $1.00 per hundredweight from the Class III price, but only half of the cheese and whey processors participated in the voluntary cost of processing survey used to determine this.

In its comment, ADC requests USDA’s reconsideration of these make allowance increases, which would be more fairly evaluated through mandatory, audited cost of processing surveys.

During an ADC webinar on Aug. 29, featured presenter Danny Munch, American Farm Bureau economist, charted the impact for each FMMO of all proposed changes in USDA’s Recommended Decision. The make allowance increases for the Class III and IV products would remove an estimated $1.25 billion annually from manufacturing class prices used in all FMMOs, according to AFBF’s static analysis of 2019-23 pool data.

USDA proposes implementing these make allowance increases for processors right away, but would delay for 12 months the proposed updates on milk composition that would benefit dairy farmers by adding what AFBF estimates is $200 million annually across all FMMO pools.

Because both proposals impact risk management, ADC questions why processors would receive their proposed new income from farmers right away, but farmers would have to wait 12 months for theirs.

The ADC comment also points out that the recommended decision brings back the higher-of method for setting the Class I base price mover, but introduces complexity with a two-mover system that would price extended shelf life (ESL) milk differently. ADC could find no definition in the hearing record for creating this new fifth class of milk. A two-mover system was not part of the hearing’s scope, and was not vetted with opportunities to present evidence.

Why is this important? The 2022 Ag Census showed a record drop in dairy farms, down 39.4% at 24,470 compared with 40,336 in the 2017 Census five years earlier. Large percentage declines in US dairy farms have been an on-going story, but the most recent decline stands out, according to a jointly authored paper by Ohio State University and Illinois State University economists. A major chunk of this five-year loss of dairy farm small businesses between the 2022 and 2017 Censuses includes the first three years in which the average-of method (plus a 74-cent adjuster) has been used to calculate the skim portion of the Class I base price mover instead of the previous higher-of method.

The industry saw the unintended consequences of the legislated change in the Class I mover to a new average-of method in 2019. Now, some milk will be priced using the previous higher-of, after a large volume of hearing testimony showed the losses and disorderly marketing that resulted. However, after the hearing concluded, USDA created a new and undefined class for ESL milk in its recommended decision, which would be priced using the average-of, with a 24-month rolling adjuster and a 12 month lag.

ADC's comment points out that not only is this more complicated and less transparent, the new ESL class was not defined in the hearing, and the proposed two-mover system was not vetted.