Thursday November 07 Ag News

 Cattle prices: are we approaching the peak?
Alfredo DiCostanzo, Nebraska Beef Systems Extension Educator

Two years ago, when cattle prices began an upward trend, I looked closely at the shape of the cattle price peaks that occurred during the last cycle highs. Peak year (or years) were flanked each by an upward (before the peak) and downward (after the peak) trend.

Before reaching the actual peak, these upward trends could have been mistaken by the actual peak. As time progressed, and USDA data collection permitted, these highs were indications of peaks to come in 2014 and 2015. Starting in 2012, for feeder cattle prices, and 2013, for fed cattle prices, prices surged to new highs in each year following.

In contrast, a sharp drop in feeder and fed cattle prices occurred between 2015 and 2016.  Prices for the years after 2016 followed post-peak lows resulting from larger cattle inventory.

I describe these price surges leading to or away from the peak as the shoulders of cattle price peaks. The questions are: 1) Are we still riding the shoulders of the price peak? If so, 2) For how long?

Some might venture to ask an additional question such as how high will it be?

Let’s address the first question.

Feeder cattle prices began the current price increase in 2022. It is now 2024, and they remain higher than in 2022 and 2023. Similarly, fed cattle prices, although at times trading laterally, are higher than in 2022 and 2023.

During the period between January to September of 2024, 39.8% of fed cattle harvested were heifers. This figure is unchanged from the same period in 2023. Incidentally, fed cattle harvest kept up pace with 2023 as well.

The reality is that there are no signs indicating heifer retention has begun. Because over 70% of U.S. herds calve in the spring, retention of heifers weaned in the fall would indicate intentions to expand the herd. Unless a large proportion of spring-born heifers is retained this fall, it is safe to say that heifer retention is now on hold until fall of 2025.

Therefore, I believe cattle prices are still riding the left shoulder of the price peak. This leads me to believe that we will expect another full year of high- or high-trending feeder cattle prices.

Fed cattle prices respond to other signals: sustained consumer demand, even as retail beef price increases, and feed price, namely corn grain, amongst others. So far, demand for beef is not slowing down and corn grain is expected to remain in the low $4’s per bushel.  

A third factor: beef supply could affect fed cattle prices.

Beef supply? From where? You might ask.

In 2015, imported lean trimmings, to mix with fat from homegrown fed beef, led to a swift decline in fed cattle prices. This strategy is out of the hands of the beef cattle producer, but it remains a real option; one to watch by following imports of lean trimmings.




Nebraska Soybean Growers Selected for the 2025 Corteva Agriscience Young Leaders Program
 
The Nebraska Soybean Association announces Jacob and Catherine Frerichs of Minden and Travis Runge and Jennifer Alexander of Schuyler as participants in the American Soybean Association (ASA) Corteva Agriscience Young Leader Program. Both couples will be representing NSA in the two-part program training.  “ For over 40 years the Young Leader program has helped identify and train soybean farmers to be leaders in the industry,” said  NSA president Kent Grotelueschen.  “The program has had a significant impact on our soybean advocacy, six current NSA directors are graduates of the program."

ASA’s longest-running leadership program, Young Leaders was founded in 1984 and continues to set the bar for leadership training in agriculture, identifying and training new, innovative and engaged growers to serve as the voice of the American farmer.



SHIC, FFAR, and Pork Checkoff Announce H5N1 Risk to Swine Research Program RFP

The Swine Health Information Center has partnered with the Foundation for Food & Agriculture Research and the Pork Checkoff to fund a $4 million research program to enhance prevention, preparedness, mitigation, and response capabilities for H5N1 influenza in the US swine herd. H5N1 influenza, an emerging disease identified as a priority for the US pork industry, poses a risk due to ongoing outbreaks in poultry and a growing number of diverse mammalian species susceptible to infection. The unprecedented 2024 H5N1 outbreak impacting dairy herds across the US fuels the urgency for greater understanding and information, along with the recent discovery of the virus in a single backyard pig in Oregon.

On October 30, 2024, USDA reported the first detection of H5N1 in a pig on a small Oregon backyard farm where pigs were co-housed with poultry and other livestock. Although the farm is a non-commercial operation and the pig was not intended for the commercial food supply, this furthers the concern for potential incursion into US commercial swine herds. Research priorities for H5N1 are designed to further strengthen US swine industry prevention and preparedness as well as inform response efforts should H5N1 be introduced into the commercial swine herd.

SHIC, FFAR, and the National Pork Board invite proposal submissions from qualified researchers for funding consideration to address H5N1 risk to swine research priorities described in the detailed Request for Research Proposals found here along with the instructions for completion and submission, including topic areas of 1) vaccines, 2) clinical presentation, 3) mammary transmission, 4) surveillance, 5) introduction risks, 6) caretakers, 7) biosecurity, 8) pork safety, 9) production impact, and 10) pig movements.

Individual awards are capped at $250,000, however, proposals may exceed cap if sufficient justification is provided. Matching funds are encouraged but not required; the funding cap applies to only those funds requested from SHIC/FFAR/NPB. All projects should strive to have a high impact, show value to pork producers, and have pork industry-wide benefit.

Collaborative projects including the pork industry, allied industry, dairy or poultry industries, academic institutions, and/or public/private partnerships are highly encouraged. Projects demonstrating the most urgent priorities and timeliness of completion, providing the greatest value to pork producers, and showing efficient use of funds will be prioritized for funding. Projects are requested to be completed within a 12-to-18-month period with sufficient justification required for extended project duration.



Weekly Ethanol Production for 11/1/2024

According to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association for the week ending November 1, ethanol production scaled up 2.1% to 1.11 million b/d, equivalent to 46.41 million gallons daily, a record for that week of the year. Output was 6.0% more than the same week last year and 7.5% above the five-year average for the week. The four-week average ethanol production rate increased 1.5% to 1.08 million b/d, which is equivalent to an annualized rate of 16.56 billion gallons (bg).

Ethanol stocks grew 1.1% to 22.0 million barrels. Stocks were 4.9% more than the same week last year and 5.2% above the five-year average. Inventories built across all regions.

The volume of gasoline supplied to the U.S. market, a measure of implied demand, tapered 3.6% to 8.83 million b/d (135.70 bg annualized). Demand was 7.0% less than a year ago and 3.7% below the five-year average.

Refiner/blender net inputs of ethanol decreased 0.4% to 918,000 b/d, equivalent to 14.11 bg annualized. Still, net inputs were 3.0% more than year-ago levels and 3.3% above the five-year average.

Ethanol exports were estimated at 109,000 b/d (4.6 million gallons/day), which is 81.7% above the prior week. It has been 59 weeks since imports of ethanol were recorded.



Majority of Retail Fertilizer Prices Higher

Retail fertilizer prices are showing some strength as harvest wraps up across the Corn Belt, according to prices tracked by DTN for the last week of October 2024.

Six of the eight major fertilizers were higher in price compared to last month. Once again, no fertilizer had a noticeable price increase or decline. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more. The six slightly higher fertilizers are DAP, which had an average price of $739/ton, MAP $810/ton, urea $497/ton, 10-34-0 $604/ton, anhydrous $706/ton and UAN32 $363/ton.

Two fertilizers were slightly less expensive than a month ago. Potash had an average price of $446/ton while UAN28 was at $317/ton looking back to the prior month.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was $0.53/lb.N, anhydrous $0.43/lb.N, UAN28 $0.57/lb.N and UAN32 $0.57/lb.N.

All fertilizers but two are lower compared to one year ago. MAP is 1% higher while DAP is 4% more expensive looking back to last year. The remaining six fertilizers are lower. 10-34-0 is 1% lower, potash and UAN28 are both 12% less expensive, both urea and UAN32 are 13% lower and anhydrous is 15% lower compared to last year.



September Red Meat Exports Above Year-Ago; Pork on Pace for Annual Record

September exports of U.S. pork and beef were higher year-over-year, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), with pork exports well-positioned to set annual volume and value records in 2024.

Broad-based growth has pork exports poised to set annual records
September pork exports totaled 238,047 metric tons (mt), up 8% from a year ago, while value increased 6% to $685.1 million. Through the first three quarters of the year, pork exports were 5% above last year’s pace at 2.23 million mt, with value up 7% to $6.36 billion.

“U.S. pork’s September performance was especially encouraging because growth was mainly driven by small and medium-sized markets in Central America, Southeast Asia and Oceania, and pork exports to Colombia continue to reach new heights,” said USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “It was certainly another robust month for pork exports to Mexico and shipments to Japan were above last year. But the broad-based growth reflects the U.S. industry’s strong commitment to market diversification.”

Through September, pork exports to leading market Mexico are on a record pace, as are shipments to Central America, Colombia and several Caribbean markets. Shipments are also up substantially to South Korea, Oceania and the ASEAN region.

Mexico, Central America, Asian markets fuel September beef export growth
Exports of U.S. beef totaled 103,980 mt in September, up 5% year-over-year, while export value climbed 6% to $843.8 million. January-September exports increased 5% in value to $7.82 billion, despite volume falling 2% to 960,814 mt.

With the exception of China/Hong Kong, September beef exports trended higher than a year ago in all major Asian markets, while demand remained strong in Mexico and shipments to Central America were the largest in 18 months.

“The tourism rebound in Asia has certainly provided momentum for U.S. beef, especially in Japan, Taiwan and Korea,” Halstrom said. “We also saw impressive growth in the Philippines and Indonesia, which are markets where we see a lot of untapped growth potential.”

September lamb exports lowest of 2024
Exports of U.S. lamb reached just 167 mt in September, down 32% from a year ago and the lowest this year. Export value was $853,000, down 27%. Despite this slowdown, January-September lamb exports were 13% above a year ago at 2,113 mt, while value increased 17% to $11.1 million. Shipments trended higher than a year ago to the Caribbean, Mexico, the Philippines, Guatemala and Taiwan. Lamb exports to Mexico are on pace to be the largest since 2019, while shipments to the Bahamas are the strongest since since 2011.



Farmers for Soil Health Initiative Seeks to Double Cover Crops by 2030—Enrollment Now Open

Farmers for Soil Health empowers farmers to lead the charge in sustainability—putting real money directly into their hands to drive change where it matters most: at the farm level. With enrollment now open, the program offers an opportunity for farmers to make a meaningful impact on soil health while benefiting financially. In its first year alone, 238 farmers enrolled, covering more than 78,000 acres, pushing the initiative closer to its goal of doubling cover crop adoption to 30 million acres across the U.S. by 2030.

This innovative initiative, which is backed by corn, pork, and soy commodity groups, in partnership with the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation and USDA’s Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities, provides both financial incentives and technical support to corn and soybean farmers planting cover crops. The process is designed to be simple, featuring hassle-free enrollment and satellite-based remote monitoring and verification.

“As farmers, protecting the land is personal, and it’s about preserving our family’s legacy,” said Neal Bredehoeft, a soy checkoff farmer-leader from Alma, Missouri. “Our farm has been in the family for over a century, and we’ve always prioritized soil and water conservation. My brothers and I have practiced no-till for 30 years and have been using cover crops for nearly a decade. These conservation practices help keep our soil and nutrients where they belong, and Farmers for Soil Health provides even more tools to ensure sustainable farming practices for future generations.”

Participating farmers who plant cover crops will receive payments to help transition totaling $50 (spanning three years) per new acre of cover crops planted. Or a one-time payment of $2 per acre for farmers with existing cover crops. Eligible farmers will participate in measurement, reporting and verification to highlight progress toward the goal of expanding adoption of cover crops.

“Farmers for Soil Health is unique in that it provides a couple of key factors that we know will enhance the adoption of cover crops,” said Ben West, Farmers for Soil Health executive director. “Technical assistance provides farmers valuable benefits, and knowing what the science says and how to better implement it on their farms is key. Secondly, putting real money on the table helps farmers mitigate their risks and sustain the willpower and effort to continually adopt these practices in the future.”

Across 20 states, farmers in Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia and Wisconsin are eligible for enrollment in the cost-share programs through Farmers for Soil Health.

“With the support of programs like Farmers for Soil Health, which was built by farmers, for farmers, we can continue improving soil health. This initiative is unique because it not only helps cover the costs of adopting cover crops but also offers technical support and connects us with supply chain partners. It’s great to see flexibility built into the program whether you’re planting cover crops now or after harvest, FSH meets you where you are,” Bredehoeft shares.

Visit farmersforsoilhealth.com for more information and to learn how to enroll online for cover crop payments.

Farmers for Soil Health is a collaboration between the National Corn Growers Association, National Pork Board and United Soybean Board to create a farmer-led cover crop program that advances the use of soil health practices, meets sustainability goals and improves farmer profitability. Our goal is to improve soil health by encouraging farmers to expand their adoption of cover crops to 30 million acres by 2030.



California voters reject ban on ‘factory farming’

California voters in the major agricultural region of Sonoma County overwhelmingly voted down a controversial ballot proposal to phase out large farms in a win for the meat industry.

The ballot initiative Measure J, which about 85% of the voters opposed, would have banned large livestock farms also known as concentrated animal feeding operations. Proponents said the measure would protect animal welfare as well as provide a national model to transform food systems away from large-scale agriculture.

Around two dozen CAFOs operate in Sonoma County, including four owned by poultry giant Perdue Farms through subsidiary Petaluma Poultry. However, the majority of the state’s CAFOs are in California’s Central Valley.

The ballot measure in the rural county spurred broad pushback from farmers, who expressed concern that the loss of large farms could have ripple effects throughout the agricultural economy.

If all dairy and poultry farms in Sonoma County were to close, that would result in a $381 million loss to the local economy, including significant job and wage losses, according to a government sponsored impact report.



NCGA Statement on Presidential Election

National Corn Growers Association President Kenneth Hartman Jr., released the following statement Wednesday to congratulate President-Elect Donald J. Trump following Tuesday’s election:

“On behalf of corn growers across the country, I want to congratulate President-Elect Donald J. Trump on his victory in Tuesday’s election. We look forward to working with the new administration and members of Congress to advance policy that is important to corn farmers. We especially appreciate President Trump’s recognition that homegrown fuels, like ethanol, are important for our nation’s energy security and rural economies. We are also eager to work with his administration and Congress to enact improved farm policies and programs, expand market opportunities and build on the tax policies enacted during President Trump’s first term that are beneficial to corn farmers as they face a challenging financial outlook with low prices and high costs.”



IRFA Congratulates Donald Trump on Re-Election as President of the United States

Today the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA) congratulated President Donald Trump on his re-election. IRFA and its members look forward to working with President Trump in prioritizing American energy dominance in support of rural farmers across the nation. IRFA Executive Director Monte Shaw made the following statement:

“IRFA members congratulate Donald Trump on being reelected president and look forward to partnering with President Trump and his administration to get the rural economy back on track. The best way to boost farm income and grow rural America is to boost demand for American biofuels.

“Just days before the election, President Trump stated: ‘I love the farmers, and they love me.’ And the election results clearly show that after an unprecedented two-year drop in farm income, rural America and farmers put their faith in President Trump to turn this around. There is much President Trump can do during his first 100 days to help farmers and biofuels producers, including nationwide, year-round E15 and providing clarity on energy incentives for biodiesel producers.

“There is much more to be done to enable biofuels to help power American energy dominance and, at the same time, make the rural economy great again. IRFA members stand ready to partner with President Trump to get it done.”



Cattle Producers Congratulate President-Elect Trump for his Decisive Victory

Today, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) congratulated President-Elect Donald Trump on his decisive victory in the 2024 presidential election and reiterated its enthusiasm for working with him once again.

“Congratulations to President-Elect Trump for his historic victory last night and for running such a hard-fought campaign. NCBA is excited to work with the President-Elect to undo the harm which cattle producers have endured under four years of “Bidenomics” and restore the free-market principles which have made U.S. cattle and beef the finest and safest in the world.” said NCBA Vice President of Government Affairs Ethan Lane. “Despite cattle prices soaring to record highs over the previous years, producers have been squeezed by exceptionally high input costs, record inflation, and the Biden Administration’s so-called competition agenda. This is the perfect opportunity to execute a hard reset on all of these failed policies.”