Friday February 21 Ag News

 Rural Mainstreet Economy Falls Again
Only 9% See Positive Outcomes from Trump Trade Actions

For the 17th time in the past 18 months, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below the 50.0 reading in February, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.
 
Overall: The region’s overall reading for February slumped to a weak 38.0 from 42.3 in January. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.
 
Only 9% of bankers expect positive outcomes for Rural Mainstreet from President Trump’s tariff actions.  
 
“The economic outlook for grain farmers remained weak for 2025. However, grain prices have recently improved, but not enough for profitability for many producers. On the other hand, regional livestock producers continue to experience solid prices with only 9.3% of bankers expecting negative cash flow for ranchers in 2025,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farming and ranch land prices: For the 8th time in the past nine months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price index fell to 40.0, its lowest level since October 2024, and down from 42.0 in January. “Elevated interest rates and higher input costs, along with below breakeven prices for a high share of grain farmers in the region, have put downward pressure on ag land prices,” said Goss.  
 
This month, bank CEOs were asked to project 2025 grain and livestock net cash flow or income. On average, 70.8% of bankers expect livestock ranchers to experience positive cash flow or net income for the year. On the other hand, only 54.2% of bank CEOs forecast grain farmers to breakeven or earn a profit for 2025.  
 
According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for all of 2024, compared to 2023, rose by $747.8 million for a 6.1% gain. Mexico was the number-one destination for 2024 ag exports, accounting for 47.7% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.  
 
Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index rose to a very weak 18.2 from January’s 17.4. “This is the 19th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input prices, tighter credit conditions and weak farm grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.  
 
Below are the state reports:  
Nebraska: The Nebraska Rural Mainstreet Index for February decreased to 37.0 from 39.2 in January. The state’s farmland price index for February dipped to 39.3 from January’s 40.9. Nebraska’s new hiring index fell to 42.2 from January’s 45.9. According to trade data from the ITA, exports of agriculture goods and livestock for all of 2024, compared to 2023, rose by $104.9 million for a 12.0% gain. Mexico was the number-one destination for 2024 ag exports, accounting for 70.1% of total state agriculture and livestock exports.  

Iowa: February’s RMI for the state slumped to 32.8 from 40.7 in January. Iowa’s farmland price index for February sank to 38.1 from 41.3 in January. Iowa’s new hiring index for February dropped to 40.8 from January’s 46.2. According to ITA trade data, Iowa exports of agriculture goods and livestock for all of 2024, compared to 2023, rose by $30.2 million for a 2.0% gain. Mexico was the number-one destination for 2024 ag exports, accounting for 63.4% of total state agriculture and livestock exports.  
 
The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.   
 


ISA Roundtable discussion to be held in Sioux City

What are the hot topics impacting the soybean industry and farmers today? What does the future hold?

The Iowa Soybean Association (ISA) and Cargill are partnering together for the fourth annual ISA-Cargill Farmer Roundtable from 8:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. March 13 in Sioux City.

Throughout the day, industry experts from ISA, Cargill, AGI, and the Soy Transportation Coalition will share insights into the different challenges and opportunities that exist within the soybean industry. The ISA-Cargill Farmer Roundtable will provide farmers with the opportunity to hear from industry experts on a variety of issues and ask questions.
Registration

To register for this event click here https://www.iasoybeans.com/events/2025-cargill-farmer-roundtable.

The deadline to register is Thursday, Feb. 27.

Event highlights
The event kicks off that day at the Stoney Creek Hotel, 300 3rd St., in Sioux beginning at 8:30 a.m. with registration and refreshments.

According to ISA Producer Services Coordinator Paige Whitney, beginning at 9 a.m., the presentation “State of Soy: Pricing, Quality, Uses and Markets” will get under way. ISA President Brent Swart, joined by Laura Hatcher, Cargill U.S. biodiesel commercial lender, will kick off the discussion with updates on the soybean industry.

Then at 9:45 a.m., Matt Herman, ISA chief officer of demand and advocacy, and Pat Woerner, Cargill U.S. biodiesel commercial leader, will talk about “Navigating the Current Biofuels Landscape: What You Need to Know.” Whitney says participants will learn more about the current condition of biofuel markets, specifically focusing on the issues surrounding used cooking oil in biofuels and soybean oil as a fuel source.

Following a break, the event continues at 10:45 a.m. with Ryan Thompson, AGI strategic account manager, who will discuss “Grain Storage for Greater Returns.” Whitney says Thompson will share with audience members how grain storage could impact their farms and improve their bottom lines by giving farmers the flexibility to sell grain when prices are preferable. He also will dive into storage options and grin bin technology that could improve the quality of one’s crop.

A lunch, sponsored by AGI, will follow at 11:45 a.m.

Then at 12:15 p.m., Mike Steenhoek with the Soy Transportation Coalition will round out the day with his presentation on “Farmers Connecting Supply with Demand” - a breakdown of the transportation challenges impacting the soybean industry, specifically port issues.

Adjournment is slated for 1 p.m.

For more information or questions, contact Paige Whitney at (712) 371-9901 or pwhitney@iasoybeans.com.



Commercial Red Meat Production Up 2 Percent from Last Year

Commercial red meat production for the United States totaled 4.89 billion pounds in January, up 2 percent from the 4.77 billion pounds produced in January 2024.

Beef production, at 2.37 billion pounds, was 4 percent above the previous year.  Cattle slaughter totaled 2.72 million head, down 1 percent from January 2024.  The average live weight was up 50 pounds from the previous year, at 1,439 pounds.

Veal production totaled 2.5 million pounds, 37 percent below January a year ago.  Calf slaughter totaled 13,600 head, 40 percent below January 2024.  The average live weight was up 18 pounds from last year, at 312 pounds.

Pork production totaled 2.50 billion pounds, 1 percent above the previous year.  Hog slaughter totaled 11.5 million head, 1 percent above January 2024.  The average live weight was up 1 pound from the previous year, at 293 pounds.

By State          (million lbs.  -  % Jan '24)
Nebraska ......:     715.3            108       
Iowa ............:      816.8            101       
Kansas .........:       511.2            105       

Lamb and mutton production, at 10.9 million pounds, was 3 percent above January 2024.  Sheep slaughter totaled 173,500 head, 1 percent above last year.  The average live weight was 123 pounds, up 2 pounds from January a year ago.



Weekly Ethanol Production for 2/14/2025

According to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association for the week ending February 14, ethanol production ticked up 0.2% to 1.08 million b/d, equivalent to 45.53 million gallons daily. Output was even with the same week last year but 3.7% above the three-year average for the week. The four-week average ethanol production rate decreased 0.4% to 1.07 million b/d, which is equivalent to an annualized rate of 16.49 billion gallons (bg).

Ethanol stocks rebounded 2.0% to 26.2 million barrels. Stocks were 2.8% more than the same week last year and 2.7% above the three-year average. Inventories built across all regions except the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) and Rocky Mountains (PADD 4).

The volume of gasoline supplied to the U.S. market, a measure of implied demand, slid 3.9% to a four-week low of 8.24 million b/d (126.65  bg annualized). Demand was 0.5% more than a year ago yet 4.1% below the three-year average.

Refiner/blender net inputs of ethanol eased 0.5% to 850,000 b/d, equivalent to 13.07 bg annualized. Net inputs were 1.7% more than year-ago levels but 0.4% below the three-year average.

Ethanol exports declined 8.0% to an estimated 138,000 b/d (5.8 million gallons/day). It has been more than a year since EIA indicated ethanol was imported.



Secretary Rollins Releases the First Tranche of Funding Under Review

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced that USDA will release the first tranche of funding that was paused due to the review of funding in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

In alignment with White House directives, Secretary Rollins will honor contracts that were already made directly to farmers.  Specifically, USDA is releasing approximately $20 million in contracts for the Environmental Quality Incentive Program, the Conservation Stewardship Program, and the Agricultural Conservation Easement Program.

“American farmers and ranchers are the backbone of our nation,” said Secretary Rollins. “They feed, fuel, and clothe our nation—and millions of people around the world. The past four years have been among the most difficult for American Agriculture, due in no small measure to Biden’s disastrous policies of over-regulation, extreme environmental programs, and crippling inflation. Unfortunately, the Biden administration rushed out hundreds of millions of dollars of IRA funding that was supposed to be distributed over eight years. After careful review, it is clear that some of this funding went to programs that had nothing to do with agriculture—that is why we are still reviewing—whereas other funding was directed to farmers and ranchers who have since made investments in these programs. We will honor our commitments to American farmers and ranchers, and we will ensure they have the support they need to be the most competitive in the world.”

This is the first tranche of released funding, and additional announcements are forthcoming as soon as USDA continues to review IRA funding to ensure that we honor our sacred obligation to American taxpayers—and to ensure that programs are focused on supporting farmers and ranchers, not DEIA programs or far-left climate programs.



Rollins Hosts a Roundtable with Farmers to Discuss Avian Flu and Other Critical Issues

Yesterday, Secretary Brooke Rollins hosted a roundtable with two dozen farmers to hear their perspective on the best approaches to combat avian flu and ultimately lower egg prices. They also discussed other issues facing farmers, including the importance of disaster relief, expanding markets, reducing input costs, and decreasing regulation.

“President Trump is committed to supporting our great American farmers,” said Secretary Rollins. “He understands that rural communities were crippled by Biden’s disastrous inflationary policies, and he is taking swift action to restore opportunity across our country—especially in rural communities. The era of Biden inflation is over. We will create a new era of prosperity for American farmers. We will also work to reduce grocery costs for families, especially egg prices. This problem wasn’t created overnight, and it will take us a little time to tackle this issue, but we will take aggressive action to help our poultry farmers combat avian flu and to make eggs affordable again.”

As Secretary Rollins discussed, the Biden administration failed to lead on this issue. The data reveals that over the past 40 years, egg prices were the highest during the Biden years.

Secretary Rollins is working with the White House on a comprehensive strategy to aggressively combat Avian flu and to give poultry farmers the support and tools they need to protect their farms and to recover from outbreaks.

In addition to discussing avian flu, participants shared thoughts about expanding access to capital for young farmers, lowering input costs, and disaster relief.

Secretary Rollins pledged to work with her team to address these challenges, and she also reassured them that she would honor financial commitments that have been made to farmers.

The farmers present were from seven different states: Virginia, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Iowa, Arkansas and West Virginia. They included egg layers, dairy, beef, and row crop farmers, among others.



ASA Opposes Proposal to List 'Killer Bee' as Endangered

The American Soybean Association is raising concerns over a proposal by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to list Suckley’s cuckoo bumble bee as an endangered species. In comments submitted to FWS this week, ASA outlined several reasons why the proposal could have negative consequences for both the environment and agriculture.

The SCBB, a parasitic species that reproduces by invading other bumble bee colonies, is known to harm host populations by killing or subduing the host queen. This raises alarm about potential harm to other bumble bee species, some of which are already listed under the Endangered Species Act, including the Rusty-Patched bumble bee. ASA argues that listing SCBB without fully considering the impact on these other vulnerable species could inadvertently harm their populations.

In addition, ASA contends that SCBB could be classified as a pest, a designation that would exempt it from ESA protections. The group points out that SCBB’s parasitic nature and its impact on plant species that depend on bumble bees for pollination could create broader risks to biodiversity and human health. The association believes the potential harm SCBB poses to other endangered species and the agricultural industry could warrant reconsideration of the listing proposal.

Another significant concern raised by ASA is the uncertainty around SCBB’s existence in the lower 48 states. The FWS’s updated range map for the species includes areas where SCBB has not been observed since 2016. ASA argues that establishing such a broad range for a species with no confirmed sightings in nearly a decade would impose unnecessary regulatory burdens on farmers and landowners.

The comments urge FWS to withdraw its proposal to list SCBB as endangered and to reconsider the potential impacts on agriculture and other vulnerable species. ASA remains committed to working with FWS to ensure that any decisions made are based on the best scientific data available.



Dairy Market Report - FEBRUARY 2025
NMPF

Fluid milk sales in the United States showed their first year-over-year gain in 15 years during 2024, rising by 0.6% over 2023. 2024’s fourth quarter was a rather weak one for U.S. dairy exports, but cheese exports were a bright spot, reaching a new high for exports as a percentage of domestic production, at 7.9% for the entire year.

Following the first two months of last year’s fourth quarter with significant increases in U.S. dairy cow numbers, December’s number was only 3,000 head above the previous year’s, raising questions about what previously appeared to be an unambiguous and rather vigorous growth trend emerging in the national dairy cow herd. Total milk solids growth was almost a full percentage point higher than growth of liquid milk production during the quarter.

Overall retail price inflation ticked up again in January, up 3% from a year earlier. The CPI for all dairy and related products came close in January to matching the all-time high it reached in February 2023, but some major dairy products, including whole milk and cheese, remain below the records they reached late in 2022.

The December margin under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) Program was $13.38/cwt.

Read the full monthly report here: https://www.nmpf.org/fluid-milk-sales-rise-as-cheese-exports-hit-record-highs/.  



FSA Reminds Producers of Livestock Disaster Assistance Programs Deadline

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated three livestock disaster assistance programs recently to synchronize deadlines and streamline program delivery. The changes take effect for the 2024 program applications for the Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honeybees and Farm-raised Fish Program (ELAP), Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) and Livestock Indemnity Program (LIP).

USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) is now accepting applications for ELAP, LFP and LIP until March 1 following the end of the calendar year in which the disaster circumstances occurred.

For 2024 program applications, the deadline to apply for this assistance is March 3, 2025, because March 1 falls on a Saturday.

Programs Overview
ELAP provides financial assistance to producers of livestock, honeybees and farm-raised fish to assist with the impacts of adverse weather and disease that are not covered by other FSA programs. Producers should contact their county FSA office to determine whether their county triggered for ELAP in 2024. ELAP also helps dairy producers who incur milk production losses due to H5N1 infections in their dairy herds.

LFP provides financial assistance to livestock producers who suffer eligible grazing losses on land impacted by qualifying droughts or are restricted from grazing federally managed lands due to wildfire. In Nebraska, the counties of Box Butte, Dawes, Gage, Jefferson, Morrill, Nuckolls, Scotts Bluff, Sioux and Thayer triggered for LFP in 2024.

LIP provides financial assistance to producers who face livestock deaths in excess of normal mortality due to adverse weather or attacks by animals reintroduced into the wild by the federal government.

More Information
Producers should contact the FSA at their local USDA Service Center for additional information and to apply for assistance prior to the March 3, 2025, application deadline.



U.S. Grains Council Delegates To Vote On Organizational Name Amendment

U.S. Grains Council (USGC) President and CEO Ryan LeGrand (front) and USGC Chairwoman Verity Ulibarri (rear) addressed Council members at its 22nd International Marketing Conference and 65th Annual Membership Meeting in Austin, Texas last week to announce a vote to amend the Council's name to the U.S. Grains and Bioproducts Council.

Last week at its 22nd International Marketing Conference and 65th Annual Membership Meeting in Austin, Texas, the U.S. Grains Council (USGC) announced it will bring forward a vote to amend the organization’s name to the U.S. Grains and Bioproducts Council (USGBC).

Council delegates will decide whether to move forward with the new name via a majority vote on Aug. 1 during its 65th Annual Board of Delegates Meeting in Grand Rapids, MI as the organization celebrates its rich history in supporting the U.S. agricultural industry over the past 65 years.

“The reality is we are now not just limited to taking meetings within the global ethanol space, we are interfacing with players in the broader energy industry,” said Ryan LeGrand, USGC president and CEO, during remarks in Austin. “Ethanol and related products have become part of our identity in practice, but not in name, and it is time to signal to these new audiences that we have something to offer.”

The Council has undergone this process before, when it changed its name from the original U.S. Feed Grains Council to its current title in 1998.

“We are at an inflection point for our organization – one that requires our members’ consideration of an amended organizational name that carefully balances and maintains the 65 years of brand equity we’ve built but also is broad enough to reflect what the organization is about as a whole and where we are going in the future,” LeGrand said.

The change will require three separate changes to the organization’s bylaws, and if approved by delegates during the Council’s summer meeting, updates to the Council’s online presence and physical signage to match the amended name will be gradually implemented.



California Review Panel Rejects LCFS Amendments

Earlier this week, the California Office of Administrative Law (OAL) rejected portions of the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) amendments that were adopted by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) in November. The Notice of Disapproval of a Regulatory Action sent to CARB noted that at least one amendment failed to meet legal standards under Government Code. Of note, OAL received no petitions for the review of the LCFS amendments, meaning the action was based solely on the internal review of the office.

While it is currently unclear which amendments were in violation of California law, this action by OAL directs CARB to revise and resubmit the LCFS amendments within 120 days to address the issue. If the revisions are significant, CARB has the option to seek public comment. As CARB works to address the deficiencies in the LCFS amendments, the American Soybean Association will continue to advocate in California for market access for soybean farmers.

ASA opposed the LCFS amendments as adopted, citing the exhaustive barriers CARB created for the use of soy-based feedstocks in the California biofuels market. The amendments restrict the volume of soy-based biofuels allowed for credit generation, add restrictive reporting requirements on agricultural feedstock producers, and fail to address outdated carbon intensity scoring for soybean oil.



Clean Fuels, API, and Others Urge EPA Administrator Zeldin to Set Robust, Multiyear RFS Volumes
 
This week, Clean Fuels Alliance America joined 10 other national trade groups in a letter to EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin urging the agency to set robust, timely, multiyear Renewable Fuel Standards for 2026 and beyond. The groups – which include the American Petroleum Institute – represent fuel producers, marketers, and agricultural feedstock suppliers who agree that strong RFS volumes will help deliver U.S. energy dominance.

“Since the enactment of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), our nation has benefited from increased energy security, an enhanced agricultural industry, and lower carbon fuel options,” the groups write. “We believe strong, steady volumes for conventional biofuel targets, biomass-based diesel, and advanced fuels would more accurately reflect the availability and ongoing investments in feedstocks and production capacity. Additionally, it would reflect the increased demand in new markets, such as marine, rail and aviation. Our industries will work to continue providing liquid fuels with the significant renewable fuel volumes that our country needs to fuel American growth.”

Kurt Kovarik, Clean Fuels Vice President of Federal Affairs, stated, “We appreciate the recognition across a diverse set of stakeholders that the Renewable Fuel Standard continues to deliver increased energy security, agricultural prosperity, and choice for American consumers. Biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation producers along with industry partners in the U.S. agricultural feedstock industry have made significant investments to increase production and deliver affordable, reliable advanced biofuels to meet growing demand for clean energy.”

In December 2024, Clean Fuels filed a lawsuit to compel EPA to establish a timeline for setting the 2026 RFS volumes, which by statute were due in November 2024. In June 2024, Clean Fuels also petitioned EPA to reconsider the 2024 and 2025 RFS biomass-based diesel volumes, which were set significantly below production trends.