Monday June 23 Ag News - Monthly Cattle on Feed Report - Updated Rural Mainstreet Index - plus more

Rural Mainstreet Economy Soars to Two-Year High - One in Four Farmers Expected to Experience Negative 2025 Income

The overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed above the 50.0 growth neutral reading in June, marking its highest level since July 2023, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Overall: The region’s overall reading for June rose to 51.9 from May’s 44.0. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“This is only the third time in two years that the overall index has moved above growth neutral. Despite the significant increase for the month, on average, bankers expect approximately one in four farmers to experience negative income for farmers in their area,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Regarding the Federal Reserve’s short-term interest rate decision this week, three out of four bank CEOs agreed with the Fed’s decision to maintain the current rate. Approximately 22.2% recommended a 0.25% (25 basis points) rate cut, while the remaining 3.7% argued for a 0.25% rate increase.  

Farming and ranch land prices: For the 13th time in the past 14 months, farmland prices slumped below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price increased slightly to a weak 40.9 from 39.6 in May. “Elevated interest rates, higher input costs and volatility from tariffs have put downward pressure on farmland prices. On average, bankers expect one in four farmers in their area to experience negative 2025 income,” said Goss.

According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $4.5 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025 for a decline of 18.5%. For the first month of 2025,  Mexico was the top destination for regional ag exports, accounting for 55.1% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index slumped to a very weak 22.7 from 23.9 in May. “This is the 22nd straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input prices, tighter credit conditions, low farm commodity prices and market volatility from tariffs are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

On average, bankers project that 24.7% of farmers will experience negative income for 2025.  “Despite weak farm income for 2023, 2024 and now 2025, bankers reported that farm loan delinquency rates have risen by only 1.1% over the past six months,” said Goss.

Below are the state reports:
Nebraska: The Nebraska Rural Mainstreet Index for June jumped to 52.4 from 35.8 in May. The state’s farmland price index for June increased to 41.8 from May’s 37.3. Nebraska’s new hiring index climbed to 53.1 from May’s 48.0. According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), Nebraska exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, rose by $63.1 million for a 16.6% gain. Mexico was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 66.8% of 2025 Nebraska agriculture and livestock exports.

Iowa: June’s RMI for the state climbed to 51.0 from 46.8 in May. Iowa’s farmland price index for June dropped to 39.3 from 41.6 in May. Iowa’s new hiring index for June dipped to 44.8 from May’s 44.9. According to trade data from ITA, Iowa exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, sank by $11.9 million for a decline of 1.8%. Mexico was the top destination for state exports, accounting for 74.5% of 2025 Iowa agriculture and livestock exports.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.



United States Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.4 million head on June 1, 2025. The inventory was 1 percent below June 1, 2024.

On Feed, by State  (1,000 hd  -  % June 1 '24)
Colorado .......:               920             96             
Iowa .............:               680             103             
Kansas ...........:             2,350           101            
Nebraska .......:             2,560           103             
Texas ............:              2,630            93             

Placements in feedlots during May totaled 1.89 million head, 8 percent below 2024. Net placements were 1.82 million head. During May, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 335,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 275,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 450,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 516,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 230,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 80,000 head.

Placements by State   (1,000 hd  -  % May '24)
Colorado .......:                  120             71            
Iowa .............:                   74            101              
Kansas ...........:                  470             97          
Nebraska .......:                  495            100            
Texas ............:                  420             83             

Marketings of fed cattle during May totaled 1.76 million head, 10 percent below 2024. Other disappearance totaled 62,000 head during May, unchanged from 2024.

Marketings by State   (1,000 hd  -  % May '24)
Colorado .......:                  150             97           
Iowa .............:                   72             101           
Kansas ...........:                  400             88            
Nebraska .......:                  470             92             
Texas ............:                  370             88              



USDA to Survey Cattle Operations

Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) mailed the July cattle survey to about 18,000 cattle operations nationwide to provide an up-to-date measure of U.S. cattle inventories. This is the first July cattle survey mailed to producers since the reinstatement of key reports was announced earlier this year.

“This information helps producers make timely, informed business decisions and plan for herd expansion or reduction,” said NASS Livestock Branch Chief Travis Averill. “It also helps packers and government leaders evaluate expected slaughter volume for future months and determine potential supplies for export. Obtaining the current count of cattle will serve as an important decision-making tool for the entire agriculture industry.”

During the first two weeks of July, U.S. cattle producers will have the opportunity to report their beef and dairy cattle inventories, calf crop, death loss and cattle on feed information. To make it as easy as possible for producers to participate in the survey, NASS offers the option of responding via the website agcounts.usda.gov, telephone, mail or a personal interview with a local NASS representative.

The July Cattle report will be released on July 25, 2025, at 3 p.m. ET. This and all NASS reports are available online at www.nass.usda.gov/publications.

For more information about this survey, visit nass.usda.gov/go/cattle. If you need assistance, please contact us at 888-424-7828.



May Milk Production in the United States up 1.6 Percent

Milk production in the United States during May totaled 19.9 billion pounds, up 1.6 percent from May 2024. Production per cow in the United States averaged 2,110 pounds for May, 7 pounds above May 2024. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.45 million head, 114,000 head more than May 2024, and 5,000 head more than April 2025.

Iowa ............:      526 million pounds - +0.8% from May '24

     

New Iowa Farm Bureau Food & Farm Index® shows high food costs remain key concern among Iowa grocery shoppers

8 in 10 Iowa shoppers also concerned about government regulations that increase food costs
High food costs dominate concerns among Iowa grocery shoppers amid ongoing high food inflation, according to the latest Iowa Farm Bureau Food & Farm Index®.   The annual survey of Iowa grocery shoppers, conducted this spring by The Harris Poll, shows price continues to be the most important factor for Iowa grocery shoppers when determining which meat, poultry and dairy products to purchase.  These results echo last year’s survey which also found price to be a key concern and reflects the 23.6% jump in grocery prices from 2020 to 2024 reported in the USDA Consumer Price Index.  

The survey also found that 80% of shoppers are concerned about government regulations that increase food costs, with nearly half of consumers (47%) very concerned by the proposition, more than double over the past four years (21% in 2021).  

Additionally, the survey revealed that nearly 9 in 10 Iowa shoppers (86%) think it’s important that farmers have the flexibility to use a variety of farming practices in order to provide consumers with different choices and price options at the grocery store.  “Year after year, farmers and consumers have been feeling the pinch of high costs and that is only exacerbated when individual states enact restrictions on production practices that ultimately impact prices at the grocery store,” said Iowa Farm Bureau President Brent Johnson.  “Flexibility in farming is crucial so farmers can provide consumers with a variety of options to fit their individual family needs.”

Iowa Shoppers Trust Farmers 
Trust and confidence in Iowa farmers remain high among Iowa grocery shoppers, with a vast majority (91%) saying they trust Iowa farmers.  Nearly half (49%) say they place a great deal of trust in Iowa farmers.  The 2025 index also finds more than 8 in 10 (82%) are confident Iowa farmers are caring for animals responsibly and a similar proportion (78%) are confident Iowa farmers are caring for the environment responsibly. 

“This data clearly shows the exceptional standing of farmers among Iowans, surpassing the high trust levels we’ve commonly seen in other highly respected professions,” says Latoya Guishard Welch, vice president, research for public release for The Harris Poll.  “At a time when trust in national institutions—from government to media—is at historic lows, the sustained confidence in local farmers speaks volumes about their authenticity and transparency, underscoring the strong bond and mutual respect between Iowa's farmers and the communities they serve.”

Consumers’ high trust and confidence in farmers is leading them to seek a greater connection with those farmers.  Nearly 7 in 10 grocery shoppers (69%) have purchased groceries directly from individual farmers or networks of farmers through their websites, farm stores or farmers markets.  Additionally, 40% look for a raised/grown/made locally label on the food they purchase, while 37% look for a label suggesting the food was raised/grown/made in the U.S.

“Iowans are definitely paying attention to food prices, but they’re also looking for food that makes them feel connected to local farmers,” said Johnson.  “And as farmers, that means a lot to us.  We take pride in growing safe, high-quality food for our neighbors and knowing they trust us to do that really hits home.”           
Iowans Choose Real Meat & Dairy
Real meat and dairy play an important role in Iowa grocery shoppers’ diets with 75% saying their households consume any type of meat/poultry and/or dairy as part of their daily diet.  In fact, in an average diet, Iowa grocery shoppers are far more likely to consider meat (95%) and milk (91%) from animals as healthy, compared to plant-based imitation meat and milk (66% and 77%, respectively). 

Most shoppers (86%) also say they are likely to choose foods that help support and strengthen their immune system.  This aligns with guidance from the National Institutes of Health, which notes the richest food sources of zinc, a mineral crucial for immune health, is most abundant in meat and fish/seafood.   Additionally, dairy products support overall health by providing 13 essential nutrients and are the top sources of calcium, vitamin D and potassium in the American diet.  
About the Iowa Farm Bureau Food & Farm Index®

The annual survey, now in its 12th year, was conducted online by The Harris Poll, on behalf of Iowa Farm Bureau, April 23- May 9, 2025, and asked 501 Iowa adults, ages 20 to 60, with primary or shared household grocery shopping responsibilities about their purchasing habits and attitudes. The index also uncovered other trends and factors shaping consumption habits, including how and where Iowa grocery shoppers purchase meat and dairy for their families.  

Data are weighted where necessary by age by gender, race/ethnicity, household income, household size, marital status, education, and smoking status to bring them in line with their actual proportions in the population. 

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in our surveys. The sampling precision of Harris online polls is measured by using a Bayesian credible interval. For this study, the sample data is accurate to within +/-5.7 percentage points using a 95% confidence level. This credible interval will be wider among subset of the surveyed population of interest.



AFPI Launches America First Agriculture Commissioners and Secretaries Council

Following the America First Policy Institute’s (AFPI) recent launch of the Farmers First Agenda, AFPI is launching today the America First Agriculture Commissioners & Secretaries Council. The Council will prospectively bring together state commissioners, secretaries, and directors of agriculture to inform federal, state, and local government policy recommendations that further the Farmers First Agenda.

The Council includes Arkansas Secretary of Agriculture Wes Ward; Georgia Commissioner of Agriculture Tyler Harper; Idaho Director of Agriculture Chanel Tewalt; Director of the Indiana State Department of Agriculture Don Lamb; Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig; Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture Jonathan Shell; Mississippi Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce Andy Gipson; Nebraska Director of Agriculture Sherry Vinton; Oklahoma Secretary of Agriculture Blayne Arthur; South Carolina Commissioner of Agriculture Hugh Weathers; Tennessee Commissioner of Agriculture Charlie Hatcher D.V.M., and Texas Commissioner of Agriculture Sid Miller.

"AFPI is known for its outstanding coalition building— from our Governors Council to Athletes for America— and for bringing stakeholders and citizens together to deliver on America First policies. Our America First Ag Commissioners and Secretaries Council is a welcome addition to our work. These are the officials on the frontlines serving farming and ranching communities across the nation and will be key to delivering on Farmers First policies,” said AFPI Executive Vice President Ashley Hayek.

The America First Policy Institute advances policies that put the American people first. AFPI’s guiding principles are liberty, free enterprise, national greatness, American military superiority, foreign policy in the American interest and the primacy of American workers, families and communities. Several AFPI national leaders have been selected by President Trump to serve in his cabinet or other important roles, including AFPI Chair Linda McMahon, Secretary of Education; AFPI CEO Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture; Pam Bondi, Attorney General; Doug Collins, Secretary of Veterans Affairs; Scott Turner, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development; Lee Zeldin, Administrator of the EPA; Lt. General Keith Kellogg (Ret.), Special Envoy to Ukraine and Russia, Kash Patel, Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, among others.



Farm Bureau Applauds Suspension of Burdensome Labor Rule

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall commented today on the Department of Labor suspending a rule dubbed the Farmworker Protection Act, which failed to live up to its name and was initially struck down by a district court.

“Farm Bureau thanks Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and the Trump administration for recognizing the obstacles created by this complex rule, which pit workers against their employers. Farmers value the men and women who choose to work on their farms, so they don’t take lightly the responsibility to care for them. Our laws rightly penalize bad actors, but this rule assumed all employers are guilty until proven innocent.

“We pressed the administration to recognize the impact overreaching regulations have on farm viability and see this as a step in the right direction. We urge Congress to now follow the lead of the courts, which agreed with AFBF, and the administration by rescinding the rule altogether. Farmers need workable programs that ensure they can continue to provide jobs and put food on the table for America’s families.”