Tuesday August 12 USDA Crop Production Estimate and WASDE Update

Crop Production 
August 12, 2025
National Agricultural Statistics Service 
United States Department of Agriculture

Corn Production Up 13 Percent from 2024
Soybean Production Down 2 Percent from 2024
Winter Wheat Production Up 1 Percent from July Forecast 

Corn production for grain is forecast at 16.7 billion bushels, up 13 percent from 2024, which if realized would be the highest production for grain on record for the United States. Based on conditions as of August 1, the yield is forecast at a record high 188.8 bushels per acre, up 9.5 bushels from last year's 179.3 bushels. Total planted area, at 97.3 million acres, is up 2 percent from the previous estimate and up 7 percent from the previous year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 88.7 million acres, up 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 7 percent from the previous year.

Nebraska - Yield 192 bu/acre ('24 - 188) - total production 1.93 bil bu.
Iowa - Yield 222 bu/acre ('24 - 211)- total production 2.87 bil bu.

Soybean production for beans is forecast at 4.29 billion bushels, down 2 percent from 2024. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average a record high 53.6 bushels per acre, up 2.9 bushels from 2024. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 
80.1 million acres, down 3 percent from the previous forecast and down 7 percent from 2024.

Nebraska - Yield 57 bu/acre ('24 - 57.5) - total production 270.7 mil bu
Iowa - Yield 63 bu/acre ('24 - 60) - total production 587.7 mil bu 

All wheat production for grain is forecast at 1.93 billion bushels, down slightly from the previous forecast and down 2 percent from 2024. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 52.7 bushels per harvested acre, up 0.1 bushel from the previous forecast and up 1.5 bushels from 2024. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 36.6 million acres, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 5 percent from 2024.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.36 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the July 1 forecast and up less than 1 percent from 2024. As of August 1, the United States yield is forecast at 54.8 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushel from last month and up 3.1 bushels from last year's average yield of 51.7 bushels per acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 24.7 million acres, down less than 1 percent from the Acreage report and down 5 percent from 2024.

Nebraska - Yield 40 bu/acre ('24 - 37) - Total production 32.4 mil bu

Hard Red Winter production, at 769 million bushels, is up 2 percent from last month. Soft Red Winter, at 339 million bushels, is up 1 percent from the July forecast. White Winter, at 247 million bushels, is down 3 percent from last month. Of the White Winter production, 20.5 million bushels are Hard White and 226 million bushels are Soft White. 

Durum wheat production is forecast at 87.4 million bushels, up 10 percent from the previous forecast and up 9 percent from 2024. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 40.9 bushels per harvested acre, up 2.2 bushels from the previous forecast and up 1.6 bushels from 2024. A record high yield is forecast for North Dakota. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 2.14 million acres, up 4 percent from the Acreage report and up 5 percent from 2024.

Other spring wheat production for grain is forecast at 484 million bushels, down 4 percent from the previous forecast and down 11 percent from last year. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 50.0 bushels per harvested acre, down 1.7 bushels from the previous forecast and down 2.5 bushels from 2024. Area harvested for grain or seed is expected to total 9.69 million acres, down 1 percent from the Acreage report, and down 6 percent from 2024. Of the total production, 449 million bushels are Hard Red Spring wheat, down 4 percent from the July forecast.This report was approved on August 12, 2025.



World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
USDA - Aug 12, 2025

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for sharply higher supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and larger ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2025/26 are 35 million bushels lower based on a slightly higher use forecast for 2024/25. For 2024/25, larger corn exports are partly offset by reductions in corn used for ethanol and glucose and dextrose. Corn production for 2025/26 is forecast at a record 16.7 billion bushels, up 1.0 billion from last month with a 1.9-million acre increase in harvested area and higher yield. If realized, this total would be 1.4 billion bushels more than the prior record set in 2023/24. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 188.8 bushels per acre, is 7.8 bushels higher than last month’s projection. Sorghum production is forecast up 24 million bushels to 391 million. The yield is forecast at 69.0 bushels per acre, slightly above last month’s projection while harvested area is up 0.4-million acres. 

Total U.S. corn use for 2025/26 is forecast 545 million bushels higher to 16.0 billion. Feed and residual use is raised 250 million bushels to 6.1 billion based on a larger crop and lower expected prices. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is projected lower based on observed use during 2024/25. Corn used for ethanol for 2025/26 is raised 100 million bushels to 5.6 billion. Exports are raised 200 million bushels to a record 2.9 billion reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and expectations of relatively low world market prices. With supply rising more than use, ending stocks are up 457 million bushels to 2.1 billion and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2018/19. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 30 cents $3.90 per bushel. 

Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 24.9 million tons higher to 1.572 billion. This month’s 2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down reflecting cuts to the EU and Serbia that are partially offset by increases for Ukraine and Canada. For the EU and Serbia extreme heat and dryness in southeastern Europe during the month of July reduces yield prospects. Area is also lowered for the EU. Ukraine production is raised on greater area. Canada is higher reflecting an increase in yield expectations. Foreign barley production for 2025/26 is reduced with a decline for Uruguay.

Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2025/26 include higher corn exports for the United States and Ukraine but reductions for Serbia and the EU. Corn imports are raised for Mexico, the EU, Egypt, Colombia, and Turkey but lowered for Canada. Foreign corn ending stocks are down, reflecting declines for China, Indonesia, and the EU that are partly offset by increases for Ukraine and Egypt. Global corn stocks, at 282.6 million tons, are up 10.4 million.

OILSEEDS: The 2025/26 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes lower beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered 20 million bushels on an increase to crush and exports in the prior marketing year. Soybean production for 2025/26 is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million on a lower area partly offset by a higher yield. Harvested area is forecast at 80.1 million acres, down 2.4 million from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 53.6 bushels per acre is up 1.1 bushels from last month. With lower supply and the slow pace of export sales to date, exports are reduced 40 million bushels. Crush is unchanged at 2.54 billion bushels. U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from last month. 

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025/26 is forecast unchanged at $10.10 per bushel. The soybean meal price is forecast at $280 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 53 cents per pound.

Global 2025/26 oilseed production is lowered 3.3 million tons to 690.1 million mainly on lower soybean, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed production. Global sunflowerseed production is lowered 1.2 million tons to 55.1 million on hot and dry weather conditions leading to lower yields for the EU, Ukraine, Turkey, and Serbia. 

Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2025/26 include lower production, exports, and ending stocks. Global production for 2025/26 is lowered mainly on lower production for the United States and Serbia. Exports are reduced for the United States but raised for Argentina and Uruguay. Imports are reduced for the EU, Iran, and Vietnam. Global ending stocks are reduced 1.2 million tons to 124.9 million on lower stocks for Argentina, the EU, Iran, Vietnam, and the United States. 

WHEAT: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for slightly tighter supplies, reduced domestic use, higher exports, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower production, down 2 million bushels to 1,927 million on smaller harvested area only partly offset by a higher yield. The all wheat yield is raised 0.1 bushels per acre to 52.7. Production forecasts are decreased for Hard Red Spring and White, but increased for Hard Red Winter, Durum, and Soft Red Winter. Domestic use is lowered 5 million bushels on reduced food use, based primarily on the latest NASS Flour Millings Products report. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong early pace of sales and shipments, particularly for Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. The 2025/26 season-average farm price is reduced by $0.10 per bushel to $5.30 on a lower projected U.S. corn price and price expectation for wheat the remainder of the marketing year. 

The global wheat outlook for 2025/26 is for lower supplies, reduced consumption, higher trade, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are projected to drop 2.5 million tons to 1,069.6 million primarily on lower production for China, Brazil, and Argentina that is only partly offset by a larger forecast for the EU. In addition, smaller beginning stocks are forecast for several countries including Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, and the Philippines. Production in China is lowered 2.0 million tons to 140.0 million on National Bureau of Statistics data indicating smaller-than-expected yields. EU production is raised 1.0 million tons to 138.3 million, which would be the highest since 2021/22; several months of favorable weather conditions have improved quality and yield prospects primarily in Romania and Slovakia. Global consumption is lowered 1.1 million tons to 809.5 million, mainly on reduced feed and residual use for China, Indonesia, and the Philippines that is only partly offset by larger use in the EU. World trade is increased 0.5 million tons to 213.5 million primarily on increased exports by the United States. Projected 2025/26 global ending stocks are lowered 1.4 million tons to 260.1 million, the lowest since 2015/16.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month. Beef production is lowered on reduced fed and non-fed cattle slaughter and lighter dressed weights. Pork production is reduced reflecting official data reported through the first half of the year, as well as a slower slaughter rate and reduced dressed weights in the third and fourth quarters. Broiler production is raised reflecting recent production and hatchery data. Turkey production is reduced on recent hatchery data indicating lower production in the fourth quarter of the year. Egg production is lowered on reported data through June and slower growth expected in the second half of the year based on recent hatchery data.

For 2026, beef production is lowered due to reduced expected placements in the second half of 2025, as well as reduced cow slaughter in 2026. Pork production is lowered on reduced slaughter and lighter dressed weights carrying into 2026. Broiler and turkey production are raised for the year on lower feed costs and supportive demand due to tighter red meat supplies. Egg production forecasts are unchanged from last month.

Beef imports for 2025 are lowered to reflect reported trade data through the first half of the year, as well as reduced shipments due to higher tariff rates, particularly from Brazil. The reduction is carried into beef imports for 2026. The beef export forecast is reduced for 2025, reflecting tighter domestic supplies. The reduction is carried into lower exports for the first half of 2026. The pork export forecast for 2025 is raised based on official data reported through June and no changes are made to 2026 pork exports. The broiler export forecast is also raised for 2025 based on data through June and is unchanged for 2026. The turkey export forecast for 2025 is raised on data through June and higher exports for the third quarter. The 2026 turkey export forecast is unchanged.

Cattle price forecasts for 2025 are raised for both the third and fourth quarters based on recent price strength and resilient demand for beef. The higher cattle price forecasts are carried into 2026. The 2025 hog price forecast is raised based on recent prices, with increases continuing into 2026 on tighter pork supplies. Broiler price forecasts for 2025 are reduced for the second half of the year based on recent price declines through early August, with reduced prices carrying into next year. Turkey prices are raised for the second half of 2025 and 2026 based on recent price strength and support from tight supplies of red meat. The egg price forecast for 2025 is reduced on lower fourth-quarter prices reflecting recent prices and improved shell egg inventories. The egg price forecast in 2026 is unchanged.

The milk production forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are raised from last month. The cow inventories are raised for both years based on the most recent data in the Milk Production report. The growth in output per cow is also increased for 2025 and 2026.

Fat basis imports for 2025 are reduced from last month, mainly on butterfat products. Skim-solids basis imports for 2025 are raised on higher milk protein concentrates. For 2026, imports are raised on skim-solids basis reflecting higher imports of milk protein concentrates but are unchanged on a fat basis. The 2025 fat basis export forecast is raised on higher expected shipments of butter and cheese. The skim-solids basis export forecast for 2025 is also raised on more exports of dried skim milk products and whey products. The fat basis export forecast for 2026 is raised on higher exports of cheese. The skim-solids basis export forecast for 2026 is raised primarily on higher shipments of whey products, lactose, and dried skim milk products.

The price forecast for 2025 butter is lowered from the previous month based on recent price weakness. The 2025 price forecasts for cheese and whey are unchanged, while nonfat dry milk (NDM) is raised. The Class III price is unchanged based on cheese and whey prices. The Class IV price is lowered on lower butter more than offsetting higher NDM. The all milk price is unchanged at $22.00 per cwt. For 2026, the price forecasts for butter and NDM are raised based on firm demand from domestic and international markets. Cheese and whey prices are unchanged from last month. As a result, the Class III milk price is unchanged from last month and the Class IV price is increased. The all milk price is also raised to $21.90 per cwt.