Friday September 12 USDA Crop Production Estimate & WASDE Update

USDA: Corn, Soybean Production Up Less Than 1 Percent from August Forecast
 
Corn production for grain is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 13 percent from 2024. If realized, this would be the highest grain production on record for the United States. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average a record high 186.7 bushels per acre, down 2.1 bushels from the previous forecast but up 7.4 bushels from last year. Total planted area, at 98.7 million acres, is up 2 percent from the previous estimate and up 9 percent from the previous year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 90.0 million acres, up 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 9 percent from the previous year.

2025 Corn Production by State
Nebraska - 10.3 million acres - 191 bu/acre (192 last month) - 1.967 billion bushels total production
Iowa - 13 million acres - 219 bu/acre (222 last month) - 2.847 billion bushels total production 

Soybean production for beans is forecast at 4.30 billion bushels, up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 2 percent from 2024. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average a record high 53.5 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from the previous forecast but up 2.8 bushels from 2024. Total planted area, at 81.1 million acres, is up less than 1 percent from the previous estimate but down 7 percent from the previous year. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 80.3 million acres, up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 7 percent from 2024.

2025 Soybean Production by State
Nebraska - 4.8 million acres - 61 bu/acre (57 last month) - 292.8 million bushels total production
Iowa - 9.38 million acres - 65 bu/acre (63 last month) - 609.7 million bushels total production 



September 12 2025 World Ag Supply and Demand Summary

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for greater supplies, larger exports, and a slight reduction in ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2025/26 are 20 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2024/25, with reductions in imports and corn used for ethanol partially offset by an increase in exports. Corn production for 2025/26 is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, up 72 million from last month as a 2.1-bushel reduction in yield to 186.7 bushels per acre is more than offset by a 1.3 million acre increase in harvested area to 90.0 million acres. If realized, harvested area would be the highest since 1933 and planted area of 98.7 million acres the highest since 1936.  

Total U.S. corn use for 2025/26 is forecast up 100 million bushels to 16.1 billion. Exports are raised 100 million bushels to a record 3.0 billion reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and robust early-season demand. With rising supply more than offset by greater use, ending stocks are down 7 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $3.90 per bushel. 

Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 0.9 million tons higher to 1.573 billion. This month’s 2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, slightly smaller trade, and larger stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for the EU, Serbia, Russia, and Moldova partially offset by increases for India, Zambia, and Canada. EU corn production is lowered reflecting reductions for Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, and France partially offset by an increase for Poland. Russia production is cut as poor yield prospects for the Southern and North Caucasus districts more than offset favorable conditions in the Central district. Foreign barley production is higher with increases for Australia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine partly offset by a decline for Russia. 

Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2025/26 include larger corn exports for the United States and Zambia but reductions for Serbia, the EU, Russia, and Tanzania. Corn imports are raised for the EU, Malawi, and Zimbabwe but reduced for India. Foreign corn ending stocks are cut, mostly reflecting reductions for China and Russia that are partly offset by increases for South Africa and Ukraine. World corn ending stocks, at 281.4 million tons, are down 1.1 million. 

OILSEEDS: The 2025/26 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher production, higher crush, lower exports, and higher ending stocks compared to last month. Soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, up slightly with higher harvested area offset by a lower yield. Harvested area is raised 0.2 million acres from the August forecast. The soybean yield of 53.5 bushels per acre is down marginally from last month. The crush forecast is raised 15 million bushels driven by stronger soybean meal exports. The soybean export forecast is reduced 20 million bushels on increased competition, particularly from Russia, Canada, and Argentina. Ending stocks are projected at 300 million bushels, up 10 million from last month. 

The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.00 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal and the soybean oil prices are unchanged at $280 per short ton and 53 cents per pound, respectively. Other changes this month include higher U.S. peanut production.

Foreign 2025/26 oilseed production is increased 1.1 million tons mainly on higher rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed production that is partly offset by lower soybean production. Foreign rapeseed production is raised 1.4 million tons on larger production for Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Moldova. Global sunflowerseed production is raised 0.2 million tons on higher production for Russia and Kazakhstan that is mostly offset by lower production for Ukraine and the EU. 

The global soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower beginning stocks, lower production, lower crush, higher exports, and reduced ending stocks. Beginning stocks are reduced mainly on an upward revision to exports for Argentina in the prior marketing year. Global soybean production is lowered 0.5 million tons to 425.9 million on lower production for India, the EU, and Serbia that is partly offset by higher production for Russia and the United States. 

Global soybean crush is reduced 1.1 million tons on lower crush for India, Argentina, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, and Canada that is partly offset by higher crush for the United States, Egypt, Turkey, and Ukraine. Soybean meal trade is raised with higher exports for the United States and Ukraine but lower exports for India. Soybean meal imports are raised for the EU but lowered for Egypt, Turkey, and Thailand.

Soybean exports for 2025/26 are increased with higher exports for Argentina, Russia, and Canada mostly offset by lower exports for the United States and Ukraine. Imports are raised for Turkey, Brazil, Egypt, the EU, and Serbia. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.9 million tons to 124.0 million on lower stocks for Argentina, Bolivia, and Canada partly offset by higher stocks for the United States and Brazil.

WHEAT: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for unchanged supplies and domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Exports are raised by 25 million bushels to 900 million on a continued strong pace of sales and shipments of Hard Red Winter wheat. Projected 2025/26 ending stocks are lowered 25 million bushels to 844 million and are now slightly less than last year. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price is reduced by $0.20 per bushel to $5.10 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year. 

This month’s 2025/26 global wheat outlook is for higher supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are projected up 9.0 million tons to 1,078.6 million on larger production from several major exporting countries. Australia is raised 3.5 million tons to 34.5 million on widespread favorable conditions to date as indicated by the latest ABARES forecast. The EU is increased 1.9 million tons to 140.1 million on harvest results and government data. Russia is raised 1.5 million tons to 85.0 million on increases for both winter and spring wheat. Production is also higher for Canada, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan by smaller magnitudes.  

Global 2025/26 consumption is raised 5.0 million tons to 814.5 million, largely on higher feed and residual use for the EU, Australia, Canada, Russia, and Ukraine and relatively smaller food, seed, and industrial use increases for several countries. World trade is 1.2 million tons higher at 214.7 million on greater exports for Australia and the United States more than offsetting reductions for Russia and Ukraine. Projected 2025/26 global ending stocks are raised 4.0 million tons to 264.1 million, primarily on increases for several exporting countries.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month, with lower beef and pork production more than offsetting raised poultry production forecasts. Pork production is reduced on a slower rate of slaughter for the third and fourth quarters and lighter dressed weights for the third quarter. The pork production forecast for 2026 is unchanged. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on September 25, providing a further indication of hog supplies available for slaughter in the first half of 2026. Beef production in 2025 is lowered on reduced steer and heifer slaughter and lower cow slaughter for the third and fourth quarters. Beef production in 2026 is raised slightly, with higher fed cattle slaughter more than offsetting lower bull slaughter. Broiler production is raised for the third and fourth quarters on recent production and hatchery data, as well as higher expected weights. The increase is carried into the broiler production forecasts for 2026. Turkey production is raised for the second half of 2025 on recent production data. For 2026, turkey production is lowered on recent hatchery data indicating a relatively slower rate of growth for next year. Egg production is raised on recent hatchery data showing a recovery of laying hen inventories during the third quarter of 2025. Increased egg production is carried into the first and second quarters of 2026.

The beef import forecast is raised for 2025 on continued strong demand for lean processing beef, but the forecast for 2026 is unchanged. Beef exports are reduced for 2025 and 2026 due to expectations of fewer supplies and increased price competition. Pork exports are unchanged for 2025 and 2026. Broiler exports are raised for 2025 based on recent trade data, but 2026 is unchanged. Turkey exports are raised for the third quarter of 2025 on recent data, but no changes are made to outlying quarters.

Cattle prices are forecast higher in the third and fourth quarters of 2025, with higher prices carrying into 2026. Hog prices are raised for the fourth quarter of 2025, based on recent price strength, reduced pork supplies, and support from higher cattle prices. Higher hog prices are expected for the first and second quarters of 2026, as well. Broiler prices in 2025 are forecast lower on recent price weakness and the higher production outlook, which is carried into 2026. Turkey price forecasts are raised for the third and fourth quarters of 2025 on recent prices and relatively tight supplies, but price forecasts are unchanged for 2026.

The milk production forecast for 2025 is raised on higher cow inventories and a faster rate of growth in output-per-cow, based on the latest Milk Production report. Milk production is also raised for 2026. Higher cow inventories and productivity rates are expected to carry into next year.

Imports are reduced in 2025 on both a fat and skim-solids basis, primarily due to lower expected imports of butter and cheese. Imports are also reduced for 2026. Fat basis exports are forecast higher in 2025 and 2026, as U.S. butter and cheese are expected to remain price competitive in international markets. Exports on a skim-solids basis are raised for 2025 on higher whey and cheese shipments. For 2026, skim-solids exports are unchanged, as increased shipments of cheese are offset by lower shipments of dried skim milk powder and lactose products.

Price forecasts for cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) are lowered for 2025 based on recent price declines and increased milk supplies. The whey price forecast is unchanged. Class III and Class IV price forecasts are reduced on lower dairy product prices. The all milk price for 2025 is lowered to $21.35 per cwt. For 2026, the price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey are all reduced on downward pressure from increased milk production. Class III and IV price forecasts are reduced on lower product prices. The 2026 all milk price forecast is lowered to $20.40 per cwt.