Tuesday August 25 Ag News - Weekly Crop Progress Report - Gillespie Soil Health Fund Grants Available - Mote inducted into NE Pork Prod Hall of Fame - SCN PI88788 Resistance - USDA to buy Pork - and more!

Nebraska Crop Progress: Corn, Soybean Development Remains on Track in Late August

Nebraska's corn and soybean crops continued progressing near or slightly ahead of typical late-August development last week, while sorghum remained somewhat behind its usual pace. Corn was generally on track through the dough and dent stages, though maturity continued to lag, while soybean development was slightly ahead of average as the crop began transitioning toward maturity.

Pasture and range conditions improved from the previous week but remained a significant concern, with nearly two-thirds of the state's acres still rated poor or very poor. Sorghum conditions also remained relatively weak compared with corn and soybean, with only about one-third of the crop rated good or excellent. 

Soil moisture improved somewhat following recent rainfall, particularly at the surface, though subsoil moisture remained limited across much of the state. Topsoil moisture supplies rated 19% very short, 24% short, 53% adequate and 4% surplus, while subsoil moisture rated 26% very short, 31% short, 42% adequate and 1% surplus.

For the week ending Aug. 23, there were 4.6 days suitable for fieldwork.

Field Crops Report:

Corn
    Dough: 84% — ahead of 80% last year and equal to the five-year average.
    Dented: 46% — equal to last year but behind the five-year average of 48%.
    Mature: 3% — behind 5% last year and the five-year average of 6%.
    Condition: 5% very poor, 12% poor, 28% fair, 40% good, 15% excellent.

Soybean
    Setting Pods: 93% — ahead of 88% last year and the five-year average of 91%.
    Dropping Leaves: 5% — ahead of 0% last year and the five-year average of 4%.
    Condition: 3% very poor, 9% poor, 24% fair, 49% good, 15% excellent.

Sorghum
    Headed: 82% — behind 84% last year and the five-year average of 89%.
    Coloring: 32% — equal to last year and the five-year average.
    Mature: 1% — equal to last year and the five-year average.
    Condition: 5% very poor, 20% poor, 40% fair, 32% good, 3% excellent.

Pasture and Range
    Condition: 35% very poor, 29% poor, 27% fair, 9% good, 0% excellent.

Data for this news release were provided at the county level by USDA Farm Service Agency, Nebraska Extension, and other reporters across the state. 



Iowa Weekly Crop Progress and Condition Report

There were 5.2 days suitable for fieldwork during the week ending Aug. 23, 2026. This is 0.4 days less than last year, when there were 5.6 days suitable for fieldwork. Topsoil moisture condition rated 3 percent very short, 16 percent short, 70 percent adequate, and 11 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture condition rated 5 percent very short, 21 percent short, 66 percent adequate, and 8 percent surplus. 

Ninety percent of Iowa’s corn crop has reached the dough stage, which is 3 percentage points ahead of last year. Forty-seven percent of corn reached the dent stage, which is 5 percentage points ahead of last year. One percent of corn has reached maturity, which is 2 percentage points behind last year. Corn condition rated 78 percent good to excellent. 

Soybeans setting pods reached 88 percent, which is 1 percentage point behind last year. Soybean condition rated 77 percent good to excellent. 

Ninety-seven percent of oats have been harvested, which is 1 percentage point ahead of last year. 

Pasture condition rated 65 percent good to excellent.



USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report

The national corn crop continued its downward trend last week, with its good-to-excellent rating dropping 3 percentage points, while soybean ratings also declined, according to USDA NASS's weekly Crop Progress report released Monday.

CORN
-- Crop development: Corn in the dough stage was estimated at 86%, 5 percentage points ahead of last year's 81% and 4 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 82%. Corn dented was estimated at 45%, 3 percentage points ahead of last year's 42% and 4 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 41%. Corn mature was pegged at 6%, steady with last year's pace and the five-year average.
-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 57% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, down 3 percentage points from the previous week of 60% and 14 percentage points below last year's 71%. Seventeen percent of the crop was rated very poor to poor, 2 percentage points above the previous week's 15% and 9 percentage points above the previous year's 8%. 

SOYBEANS
-- Crop development: Soybeans setting pods were estimated at 91%, 3 percentage points ahead of both last year and the five-year average of 88%. Soybean dropping leaves were pegged at 6%, 2 percentage points ahead of last year and the five-year average of 4%.
-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 60% of soybeans were in good-to-excellent condition, 1 percentage point below the previous week's 61% and 9 percentage points below the previous year's 69%. 

SPRING WHEAT
-- Harvest progress: Spring wheat harvest moved ahead 21 percentage points last week to reach 62% complete as of Sunday. That was 11 percentage points ahead of last year's pace of 51% and 10 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 52%.
-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 51% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition nationwide, down 1 percentage point from the previous week's 52%. 



Funding Available for Soil Health Projects Through Dan Gillespie Soil Health Fund

Farmers, educators, students and organizations working to advance soil health and regenerative agriculture are encouraged to explore grant opportunities available through the Dan Gillespie Soil Health Fund. Applications for the current grant cycle are due Thursday, Oct. 1.

Grants of up to $2,500 are available to support education, research and practical projects related to soil health and regenerative agriculture in Nebraska and surrounding states. Areas of interest include no-till farming, cover crops, water conservation, tree conservation and other practices that improve soil health.

Grantworthy activities may include educational events and programming for youth, farmers, ranchers and others involved in agriculture; reimbursement of training expenses for farmers seeking to improve land stewardship; and on-farm or ranch research designed to evaluate and improve soil health practices.

Previous grants have supported FFA and student research projects, producer-led innovation and on-farm research, soil health field days and demonstrations, regenerative agriculture conferences and other educational programs.

Established in 2021, the Dan Gillespie Soil Health Fund honors Gillespie, a lifelong farmer and longtime no-till practitioner and advocate known locally as “Dan, the Tree Man.” The fund is affiliated with Nebraska Community Foundation and supports efforts to expand soil health education and practical adoption of regenerative agriculture.

Applications for the fall grant cycle must be submitted by Oct. 1. Learn more about the Dan Gillespie Soil Health Fund https://www.nebcommfound.org/give/dan-gillespie-soil-health-fund/ and download the grant application.



Benny Mote inducted into the Nebraska Pork Producers Association Hall of Fame

Benny Mote, an associate professor and swine Extension specialist at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln, was named the 2026 inductee to the Nebraska Pork Producers Association Hall of Fame for his dedication to advancing Nebraska’s pork industry through research, education, innovation, and an unwavering commitment to producers.

Mote has earned a reputation for translating cutting-edge research into practical solutions that improve productivity, profitability, and animal care. His work has advanced swine genetics, sow longevity, precision livestock technologies, biosecurity, and foreign animal disease preparedness, ensuring Nebraska producers have the tools to meet the challenges of today and tomorrow.

Beyond his research, Mote has made an extraordinary impact through Extension. He has helped lead Nebraska’s Pork Quality Assurance Plus® program by training advisors, personally certifying producers, and strengthening educational efforts that have reached thousands of pork producers across the state. He has also helped producers develop Secure Pork Supply plans, coordinated dozens of educational articles for Pork Talk magazine, served as a trusted speaker at industry meetings across the country, and partnered closely with the Nebraska Pork Producers Association as an ex-officio board member since 2016 to deliver practical, research-based education. His commitment to youth development through programs like Nebraska 4-H Farrowed & Owned has inspired the next generation of pork producers and agricultural leaders.

Those who know Mote recognize not only his expertise, but also his humility, collaborative spirit, and producer-first mindset. He has built lasting relationships across the industry by listening first, working alongside producers, and ensuring his research addresses real-world challenges.



Reinke’s E3 Pivot Wins “Irrigation Innovation of the Year” in 2026 AgTech Breakthrough Awards

Reinke Manufacturing, a global leader in irrigation systems and technology, has been selected as winner of the “Irrigation Innovation of the Year” award for the E3™ center pivot. The 7th annual AgTech Breakthrough Awards honors innovators driving sustainable solutions in the global agricultural and food technology markets today.

Reinke built its E3 center pivot system to meet the challenges growers face to conserve water and increase yields. The patented design is engineered to deliver consistent, efficient water application across diverse field conditions and set a new standard for accuracy, reliability and efficiency in mechanized irrigation.

“Innovation only matters when it solves a real problem for growers,” said Chris Roth, president of Reinke. “E3 was designed from the ground up to give growers precision control over their water application; setting a new standard for how irrigation systems perform in the field. To be recognized with an AgTech Breakthrough Award affirms what our team set out to build—equipment that helps growers maximize yield potential while conserving one of their most valuable resources.”

E3 is the first precision series of spans and end booms with uniform coupler spacing in 30- and 60-inch intervals to achieve uniform water application the entire length of the system. It exceeds USDA Center Pivot Evaluation and Design (CPED) water uniformity benchmarks and includes a suite of advancements that improve stability, reliability, and efficiency across terrains:
·       Precision system configurations: spans from 80’ to 220’ in 20’ increments (including the in-demand 175’) and inverted truss end booms from 10’ to 110’
·       ReinLock™ anti-racking truss system: engineered for superior strength and consistent span crown in challenging field conditions
·       Exclusive Reinke V-ring seals: maintain flow without reduction for powerfully precise watering

The mission of the annual AgTech Breakthrough Awards program is to recognize the innovators transforming the global agricultural and food production landscape through technology. From precision agriculture platforms and farm management software to AI-driven yield forecasting, soil and water sensing and synthetic biology innovations—these breakthrough innovations are enabling agricultural companies to operate more sustainably, feed a growing global population and shape the future of how the world grows and produces food.

“Some of the most consequential innovation in agriculture is in the hardware that has defined a category for decades, quietly re-engineered to do its core job better,” said Bryan Vaughn, managing director, AgTech Breakthrough. “Reinke stood out for rethinking the center pivot itself, engineering uniform water application into the structure of the machine rather than treating it as an add-on. E3 is a deserving winner of our 2026 “Irrigation Innovation of the Year” award.”

Now available to growers across the United States and Canada, with additional markets opening as the system rolls out worldwide, E3 is part of Reinke’s continued investment in precision irrigation technology to helps growers do more with less water.



Iowa Research Shows SCN Continues to Adapt to PI 88788 Resistance

Analysis of more than two decades of data collected by Iowa State University from farmers’ fields in Iowa reveals that soybean cyst nematode (SCN) continues to develop increased reproduction on PI 88788, the most widely used SCN resistance in soybean varieties. These findings highlight the need for a more diversified approach to SCN management to protect soybean yields.

Will virulence to PI 88788 continue to increase?
The analysis, recently published in Plant Health Progress, examined data from Iowa State University’s SCN-resistant soybean variety trials conducted across Iowa from 2001 through 2023. The work was funded by checkoff dollars from the Iowa Soybean Association. Results confirmed that trends identified nearly a decade ago have continued, with SCN virulence to PI 88788 resistance increasing at a rate nearly identical to what the researchers predicted in 2017.

The ability of SCN populations in the variety trial fields to reproduce on PI 88788 resistance increased approximately 2% annually from 2001 through 2023. Also, analysis of data from the experiments predicts that by the end of this decade, PI 88788 resistance may provide only about 40% control of SCN, resulting in average yield losses of approximately 9 bushels per acre, or 12% of yield potential, if current management practices do not change. Effective SCN resistance in soybeans provides 90% or more control of SCN.

“It’s interesting that predictions we made nearly a decade ago proved remarkably accurate,” says Greg Tylka, Iowa State University nematologist and co-author of the study. “SCN populations continue to adapt to PI 88788 resistance, and if we don’t diversify how we manage the pest, farmers can expect that trend to continue.” 

Why is monitoring Peking resistance more important than ever?
Peking is currently the only other SCN resistance breeding line used in soybean varieties available for Iowa. Although the researchers did not detect a significant statewide increase in SCN reproduction on Peking SCN resistance in the studies, they found more individual variety trial fields with elevated SCN reproduction on Peking between 2016 and 2023 (8 years) than during the previous 15 years of the study.

The findings highlight the importance of continued monitoring of SCN populations as use of soybean varieties with Peking resistance expands. The HG type test determines the percentage of SCN control provided by Peking, PI 88788 and five other SCN resistance breeding lines not currently available in commercial soybean varieties.

“We cannot afford to repeat the mistakes made with PI 88788,” says Tylka. “Another wholesale shift to a single resistance source, like Peking, is likely to accelerate adaptation by SCN populations. The goal is long-term management that preserves the effectiveness of all available resistance sources.”

The soybean industry has already begun increasing the availability of varieties containing Peking resistance, creating opportunities for farmers to adopt a more balanced management strategy. Instead of relying exclusively on one resistance source, experts recommend rotating soybean varieties with different sources of SCN resistance and incorporating additional SCN management tools, such as nematode-protectant seed treatments and nonhost crops, when appropriate. 

How can farmers avoid overreliance?
A balanced approach that incorporates both PI 88788 and Peking resistance could help slow the development of virulent SCN populations while maintaining yield performance and reducing SCN population densities over time, according to the study. 

“Soybean cyst nematode remains the most damaging soybean pathogen in North America, and it’s not going away,” Tylka says. “The good news is that farmers still have effective tools available today. By diversifying resistance sources and avoiding overreliance on any one strategy, farmers can reduce risk and help protect soybean yields for years to come.”

The researchers noted that although the experiments were conducted in Iowa, published survey data and observations from other Midwestern states indicate that increasing SCN virulence to PI 88788 is a regional issue, not one unique to Iowa. 

Experts with The SCN Coalition encourage farmers to test soil for SCN after harvest and enter those results into the SCN Profit Checker to better understand potential yield loss and profit risk.

For more information about SCN and management recommendations, visit https://www.thescncoalition.com/.



Iowa Pork Names Sadie Heath Programs and Events Manager
    
The Iowa Pork Producers Association (IPPA) has welcomed Sadie Heath as its new Programs and Events Manager, bringing a lifelong connection to agriculture and a strong background in agricultural communications, outreach and marketing to the organization.

Heath grew up on her family’s third-generation dairy farm near Tony, Wisconsin, where she and her four siblings represent the fourth generation of the family operation. Her great-grandfather moved from Sioux City, Iowa, to Wisconsin in 1940 and settled at the farm’s current location in 1942.

In addition to its dairy herd, the family raises beef cattle and grows cash crops. Pigs have also been part of Sadie’s agricultural experience, with her family raising a small group each year for their own freezer.

Agriculture has been a constant throughout Sadie’s life. She began milking cows as soon as she was tall enough to reach the milking units and grew up taking on responsibilities ranging from caring for livestock to rock picking and driving tractors.

“Growing up on the farm taught me the value of hard work and gave me a strong appreciation for agriculture and the people who make it possible,” Heath said. “I’m excited to join the Iowa Pork Producers Association, learn more about the pork industry and put my education and agricultural background to work.”

Sadie graduated from Iowa State University in three years with double majors in Agricultural Communication and International Agriculture and a minor in Public Relations. Her college experience also gave her a global perspective on agriculture and food production through three study-abroad opportunities in Italy, France and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

She further developed her communications skills through internships in agriculture, communications and public relations, gaining hands-on experience in outreach, marketing and working with people throughout the agricultural industry.

As Programs and Events Manager, Heath will help coordinate IPPA programs and events that connect Iowa pig farmers with fellow producers, industry partners and consumers.

“We’re excited to welcome Sadie Heath to the Iowa Pork team,” said Pat McGonegle, CEO of the Iowa Pork Producers Association. “Her strong agricultural background and enthusiasm for working with farmers make her a great fit for our organization. She understands agriculture firsthand, and we look forward to the energy and perspective she’ll bring to our programs, events, and the county organizations and producers we serve.”

While dairy cattle may have been the primary livestock on her family farm, Sadie already has a few memorable experiences working with pigs.

“I’ve been covered in pig manure a time or two after a pig decided to run between my legs and tip me right over,” she said. “So, I guess you could say I’ve already had some hands-on experience in the pork industry!”

Sadie Heath joins IPPA at its Clive office and looks forward to building relationships with Iowa pig farmers and others throughout the state’s pork industry.



USDA Announces $156 Million Food Purchase to Support U.S. Producers and Strengthen America’s Food Supply 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Monday announced its intent to purchase up to $156 million in agricultural commodities from American farmers and producers to distribute to schools and food banks across the country.

These purchases are being made through USDA’s authority under Section 32 of the Agriculture Act of 1935 and will assist producers and communities in need. With this action, the Trump Administration is bolstering American prosperity by supporting American agriculture, rural communities, and those in need of nutrition assistance.

Agricultural Marketing Service Section 32 Purchases
USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) continuously purchases a variety of domestically produced and processed agricultural products. These “USDA Foods” are provided to USDA’s Food and Nutrition Administration (FNA) nutrition assistance programs, including schools and food banks that operate The National School Lunch Program and The Emergency Food Assistance Program (TEFAP), and are a vital component of the nation’s food safety net.

USDA AMS will purchase $156 million of the following commodities:
    Canned Peaches: $4 million
    Concord Grape Juice: $20 million
    Fresh Mandarins: $25 million
    Pork Products: $27 million
    Prunes: $5 million
    Raisins: $25 million
    Walnuts: $30 million
    Wild-Caught Shrimp: $20 million



NPPC Applauds USDA Purchase of U.S. Pork for Food Assistance Programs
 
National Pork Producers Council President Rob Brenneman, a pork producer from Washington County, Iowa, issued the following statement after the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced a pork purchase for federal food assistance programs under Section 32 of the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1935.

“More high-quality, wholesome and nutrient dense protein is on its way to American schools and food banks across the country thanks to this purchase of U.S. pork. America’s pork producers applaud USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and the administration for this significant step in what is a challenging market -- and for recognizing the needs of farm country and Americans who deserve reliable sources of good food go hand in hand.”

Section 32 authorizes the Secretary of Agriculture to make commodity purchases, entitlement purchases, and disaster assistance — using funds appropriated annually from U.S. customs receipts — to encourage the continued domestic consumption of products. USDA annually buys pork and other commodities for federal food programs, including school breakfast and lunch programs.



USDA Cold Storage July 2026 Highlights

Total red meat supplies in freezers were down 3 percent from the previous month but up 2 percent from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 2 percent from the previous month and down 4 percent from last year. Frozen pork supplies were down 3 percent from the previous month but up 9 percent from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were down 31 percent from last month but up 14 percent from last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies on July 31, 2026 were up 2 percent from the previous month but down 4 percent from a year ago. Total stocks of chicken were up slightly from the previous month but down 6 percent from last year. Total pounds of turkey in freezers were up 5 percent from last month and up slightly from July 31, 2025.

Total natural cheese stocks in refrigerated warehouses on July 31, 2026 were down slightly from the previous month but up slightly from July 31, 2025. Butter stocks were down 3 percent from last month and down 3 percent from a year ago.

Total frozen fruit stocks were up 12 percent from last month but down 1 percent from a year ago. Total frozen vegetable stocks were up 6 percent from last month but down 10 percent from a year ago.



USMCA Negotiations Must Resume

American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall commented today on the breakdown of trade talks between the United States and Canada, and the imposition of additional damaging tariffs.

“Canada has been one of the most important trading partners for U.S. agriculture since our first free trade agreement in 1989. We are concerned that talks with our northern neighbor around a resolution to Section 338 tariffs have fallen apart in the midst of the USMCA review. We strongly urge the U.S. and Canada to return to the negotiating table and find a resolution.

“Our strong agreements with Canada and Mexico have eliminated nearly all tariffs for U.S. agriculture, allowing the majority of our farm products to enter those markets duty- and quota-free. Additional tariff escalations and subsequent retaliation will hurt U.S. agriculture at a time when farmers and ranchers are already struggling.

“Agricultural exports are a critical component of farm success. More broadly, they create a positive ripple effect across the economy. That’s why we need a de-escalation of tariffs and a renewal of the USMCA that maintains duty-free market access for U.S. agriculture.”



USDEC, NMPF Thank Administration for Maintaining Pressure on Canada to Resolve USMCA Dairy Concerns

The National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) and U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC) expressed their strong appreciation to the Trump Administration for its continued focus on using all available trade tools to resolve outstanding U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) dairy market access issues with Canada. With a 50 percent tariff on certain Canadian imports taking effect on Saturday, the organizations urged Canada to return to the negotiating table and prevent further escalation.

"We appreciate the Administration's persistence in standing up for American dairy producers and exporters who have waited far too long for Canada to live up to its promises," said Krysta Harden, president and CEO of USDEC. "Canada has had plenty of chances to fix its unfair market access practices and close the loopholes it's used to dodge its dairy commitments under USMCA. This weekend's action makes clear that patience has run out. We look forward to continuing to work with the Administration until Canada resolves these issues and America's dairy farmers and exporters see the full benefits USMCA promised."

"This action sends an unmistakable message that Canada's ongoing disregard for its USMCA dairy commitments carries real consequences," said Gregg Doud, president and CEO of NMPF. "It's time for Canada to stop looking for workarounds and instead sit down in good faith to resolve these outstanding USMCA dairy implementation issues. Canadian retaliation would only serve to force the United States’ hand in escalating its leverage. The objective should be for both our countries to prevent increased friction and build on the progress made through weeks of negotiations."

Under USMCA, Canada committed to providing meaningful additional duty-free access for U.S. dairy exports through a series of tariff-rate quotas (TRQs). Canada's administration of those TRQs has repeatedly resulted in chronic underfill. In addition, Canada has continued to exploit loopholes to sidestep USMCA disciplines on dairy protein exports. NMPF and USDEC have consistently urged the Administration to prioritize resolution of both issues as part of the ongoing USMCA Joint Review and continue to call on Canada to come to the table and negotiate in good faith.



Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Launches Agricultural Advisory Council

As part of its Center for Agriculture and the Economy, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has established an Agricultural Advisory Council.

The Agricultural Advisory Council will offer insights into emerging economic trends and issues in agriculture, advise on strategic direction and priorities of the Center, and help strengthen connections between the Center and key stakeholders. The Council will meet twice a year.

The inaugural members are:
Chris Abbott, Chief Executive Officer, Pivot Bio, Minnetonka, Minnesota
A.G. Kawamura, Founding Co-Chair, Solutions from the Land, Fullerton, California
Deanna Kovar, President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production & Precision Agriculture, and Americas and Australia, Deere & Company, Moline, Illinois
Bill Krueger, President and Chief Executive Officer, The Andersons, Inc., Maumee, Ohio
Dave McCarty, Co-Owner and Chief Financial Officer, McCarty Family Farms, Colby, Kansas
Seth Meyer, Director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri
Gonzalo Petschen, President, Food North America, Cargill, Wayzata, Minnesota
Shari Rogge-Fidler, Executive Director, Farm Rescue, Sioux Falls, South Dakota
John Steeves, Head of Rural Business, North America, Rabobank, Chesterfield, Missouri
Sheryl Wallace, Chief Executive Officer, Ardent Mills, Denver, Colorado

The Kansas City Fed established the Center for Agriculture and the Economy in October 2025, underscoring its longstanding focus on U.S. and global agriculture. The Center serves as a resource within the Federal Reserve System by providing timely analysis of industry developments, in-depth research on the agricultural economy, and ongoing engagement with industry participants to gain perspectives that inform deeper understanding of emerging developments and trends. The Center also supports Federal Reserve policymakers and senior officials as they evaluate economic conditions and determine monetary policy.

For more information about the Center for Agriculture and the Economy visit www.kansascityfed.org/center-for-agriculture-and-the-economy.

As the regional headquarters of the nation’s central bank, the Kansas City Fed and its branch offices in Denver, Oklahoma City and Omaha serve the seven states of the Tenth District: Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, northern New Mexico and western Missouri.



Headline & Signals - Let Markets Work
Glynn T. Tonsor 
Department of Agricultural Economics
Kansas State University
    
It is rare for a 10-day period to hand the cattle industry a historic supply report, multiple packing plant capacity announcements, and a headline trade policy action. Sorting the signals from the noise matters. Each event has generated its own reaction, but viewed together they tell a coherent story about an industry (and society at large) working through historically tight cattle supplies and strong beef demand — and they point to a shared lesson.

Start with the fundamentals. While ever-boring to many, perennially-core fundamentals are just that – core and hard to ignore. USDA’s August Cattle on Feed report pegged the August 1st feedlot inventory at 11.1 million head, 2% above a year ago. More striking were July placements of 1.42 million head (down 11% from 2025) and July marketings of 1.62 million head (down 7%). Whether one labels the report “bullish” or simply “confirming,” it importantly documents scarcity of cattle. The pipeline behind the feedlot sector is getting thinner, and the industry’s adjustment given market signals is not new – it is working to get the most consumable beef from a shrinking volume of cattle. Specifically, KSU Focus on Feedlot data points to a 33% increase in added weight (539 to 719/lbs. added per steer) and 47 more days on feed (149 to 196 days) in 2025 than in 2010.

Next, harvest capacity. On August 13th, Tyson announced it will close its Joslin, IL beef plant (roughly 3,000 head of daily harvest capacity) and its Eagle Mountain, UT case-ready facility, while offering its Pasco, WA plant (about 2,000 head daily) for sale. Combined with the Lexington, NE closure (about 5,000 head daily) and JBS’s Souderton, PA closure (about 2,000 head daily), the industry is clearly in the process of removing shackle space. This is not surprising as the nation’s packing sector largely was built decades ago during a period of higher cattle inventories. Too much processing capacity chasing too few cattle produces sustained packer losses, and capacity is adjusting accordingly given market signals.

Finally, policy development. On August 21st, President Trump announced a 90-day waiver of out-of-quota tariffs on up to 300,000 metric tons (about 2.5% of annual beef consumed in the U.S.) of imported ground beef, asserting the product could be sold well below current market prices. While realization of key details (source countries, actual price details, timing, and whether that volume materializes or displaces volume that otherwise was coming) remains pending and unresolved, the aggregate impact on consumer beef prices is likely to be small. CME futures fell sharply on the news before recovering by the close - a simple yet clear reminder that policy surprises typically add volatility.

Here is a common thread: high cattle and beef prices, lower feedlot placements, and plant closure announcements reflect the market doing precisely what we may expect — signaling scarcity, rationing what is short in supply and desired by eligible buyers, and encouraging removal of what is long or excess in supply.

Record calf values are providing cow-calf producers with the strongest herd-rebuilding incentive most, if not all, have ever seen when considered on a traditional $/cow/year basis. Packer consolidation of harvest into fewer plants operating at higher volumes is the painful yet predictable response to overcapacity. Higher imported beef volumes, with or without tariff waivers, are how the market responds to strong U.S. consumer beef demand, high slaughter weights (yielding more trimmings to blend with imported lean beef), and shrinking feedlot inventories.

Meanwhile, even producers with an optimistic eye to the future considering herd expansion increasingly take pause given elevated uncertainty – an era of increased unpredictability is likely delaying and muting overall herd expansion interest. Similarly, in the future, if the herd has grown and the market signals a desire for additional packing capacity, then unpredictability may threaten to delay or mute investment interest. Stated simply, when adjusted for risk, uncertainty, and a general lack of comfort in predictability, the current and perhaps future interest in investment is below what many wish for.

The shared lesson - interventions that mute market signals may possibly offer short-run comfort to a subset of society, but they often slow the very adjustments (here herd and packing capacity right-sizing) that interventions claim to seek. Alas, history is filled with examples of “unintended consequences” that yield instructive lessons. My core takeaway from a memorable period of headlines is a familiar, albeit boring one: let markets work.