Friday, January 23, 2015

Friday January 23 Cattle on Feed + Ag News

NEBRASKA CATTLE ON FEED UP 4 PERCENT

Nebraska feedlots, with capacities of 1,000 or more head, contained 2.49 million cattle on feed on January 1, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. This inventory was up 4 percent from last year. 

Placements during December totaled 395,000 head, down 2 percent from 2013. 

Fed cattle marketings for the month of December totaled 440,000 head, up 5 percent from last year.    This is the highest December marketings since the data series began in 1994. Other disappearance during December totaled 15,000 head, unchanged from last year.



United States Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent

   
Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.7 million head on January 1, 2015. The inventory was 1 percent above January 1, 2014. The inventory included 6.94 million steers and steer calves, up 2 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 65 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 3.67 million head, down 2 percent from 2014.

Placements in feedlots during December totaled 1.54 million, 8 percent below 2013. Net placements were 1.47 million head. During December, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 435,000, 600-699 pounds were 375,000, 700-799 pounds were 339,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 395,000.

Marketings of fed cattle during December totaled 1.66 million, 5 percent below 2013.



No. of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and US: 2014 and 2015

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             :                        :                      :              January 1, 2015              
                             :                        :                      :---------------------------------------
       State            : Jan 1, '14    :  Dec 1, '14 :                  :   % of         :  % of 
                              :                       :                      :      No.    : last year   : last month
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :     ---------- 1,000 head ---------          ----- percent ----     
Arizona ..........:        274               252                249            91             99     
California .......:        510               435                425            83             98     
Colorado ........:        940               930                920            98             99     
Idaho .............:        220               225                230            105            102     
Iowa ..............:        620               620                640            103            103     
Kansas ...........:      2,010             2,100            2,050          102             98     
Minnesota .....:        130               135                 137            105            101     
Nebraska .......:      2,400             2,550            2,490          104             98     
Oklahoma ......:        260               260                255             98             98     
South Dakota .:        250               245                 245             98            100     
Texas .............:      2,440             2,560            2,500          102             98     
Washington ...:        201               226                 209            104             92     
Other States ..:        335               335                  340            101            101     
United States  :     10,590            10,873         10,690          101             98     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


No. of Cattle Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity, by Month - States and US: 2013 and 2014

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :                  :                  :            During Dec 2014           
                              : During   : During    :--------------------------------------
       State            : Dec '13   : Nov '14   :                 :  % of        :   %of 
                              :                  :           :    Number    : last year : last month
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :    ------ 1,000 head -------         ----- percent ----     
Arizona ..........:       28             26             26            93            100     
California .......:       59             62             51            86             82     
Colorado ........:      150          155            130          87             84     
Idaho .............:       32             38             40           125          105     
Iowa ..............:       96            127           101          105            80     
Kansas ...........:      360            320          330          92            103     
Minnesota .....:       20             15             16            80            107     
Nebraska .......:      405           485           395          98             81     
Oklahoma ......:       43             45             36            84             80     
South Dakota .:       43             53             32            74             60     
Texas .............:      370            385          325          88             84     
Washington ...:       34              39             28            82            72     
Other States ..:       39              39             34            87             87     
United States .:    1,679       1,789       1,544          92            86     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


No. of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and US: 2013 and 2014

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :                  :                  :            During Dec 2014           
                              : During   : During    :---------------------------------------
       State            : Dec '13   : Nov '14   :                 :  % of        :   %of 
                              :                  :           :    Number    : last year : last month
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :    ------ 1,000 head -------         ----- percent ----     
Arizona ..........:       28             19             26            93             137     
California .......:       52             43             54           104            126     
Colorado ........:      150            120         135           90             113     
Idaho .............:       36             32             34            94             106     
Iowa ..............:       84             95             80             95              84     
Kansas ...........:      385            285          370           96              130     
Minnesota .....:       11             11             13             118            118     
Nebraska .......:      420            370          440           105            119     
Oklahoma ......:       45             43             39             87              91     
South Dakota .:       30             34             30             100             88     
Texas .............:      420            360          365            87            101     
Washington ...:       37             37              42           114            114     
Other States ..:       38             26              27             71            104     
United States .:    1,736          1,475      1,655         95            112     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



CALENDAR PLANNING

Bruce Anderson, UNL Extension Forage Specialist


               In between snow storms, frigid temperatures, and January thaws is a great time to reflect on last year’s successes and problems as well as plan ahead for next year.

               At this time of year, most of us have an abundance of new calendars for the new year – from the coop, the bank, and maybe as a gift.  Put these calendars to good use by planning next year’s forage activities now and make notes on that calendar to complete needed work on a timely basis.

               For example, order alfalfa and other seeds here in January and February to make sure you get what you want.  Then in March, remind yourself to pull any soil samples you didn’t get last fall as well as get ready to plant oats at your earliest opportunity.

               By mid-April, be sure to get alfalfa and cool-season grasses planted before corn planting begins.  This might also mean that lime and phosphorus or other fertilizers needed to be applied even earlier.  Mark it down.  Also, fertilize cool-season grass pastures by mid-April.

               When May arrives, spray your thistles right away and begin checking your alfalfa so once buds just start to form you can be ready for an early first cutting that brings a premium price.

               In late May, warm-season grass pastures can use some fertilizer, and shortly thereafter plant your summer annuals.

               Be ready by early August to prepare and plant turnips or oats for late fall, early winter grazing.  Finally, finish your year by sampling and testing all your harvested forages so you can plan and feed animals during winter to meet their needs at lowest cost.

               I’m sure you can think of many other items to add to your own calendar.  Make those notes now, and in twelve months you will smile, knowing you got all your forage work done correctly and on time.



Ranking Member Peterson Announces Democrat Membership


This week House Agriculture Committee Ranking Member Colin Peterson announced the 19 democrats who will serve on the Committee in the 114th Congress. The members are:
-    Collin Peterson (MN-7)
-    David Scott (GA-13)
-    Jim Costa (CA-16)
-    Tim Walz (MN-1)
-    Marcia Fudge (OH-11)
-    Jim McGovern (MA-2)
-    Suzan DelBene (WA-1)
-    Filemon Vela (TX-34)
-    Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM-1)
-    Ann Kuster (NH-2)
-    Rick Nolan (MN-8)
-    Cheri Bustos (IL-17)
-    Sean Patrick Maloney (NY-18)
-    Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-1)
-    Pete Aguilar (CA-31)
-    Stacey Plaskett (VI-AL)
-    Alma Adams (NC-12)
-    Gwen Graham (FL-2)
-    Brad Ashford (NE-2)



NWF Responds to NPR Food Blog About Gluten-Free Diets


Last week, NPR’s food blog The Salt posted an article highlighting the negative externalities those who have joined the gluten-free diet craze are causing for those with celiac disease, who must avoid gluten regardless of preference. The National Wheat Foundation responded to the issue on their blog, The Word on Wheat, agreeing that the fad diet has created a stigma for both the wheat industry and the one percent of the population who suffer from celiac disease. The misinformation that has been spread about gluten has led to negative connotations about the healthiness of wheat and wheat products. In fact, modern nutritional science has proven that wheat provides essential nutrients for a person's diet, and is usually healthier than gluten-free meal options, which often add more fat, sugar and sodium to make up for the lack of consistency and taste. The full blog post can be read here... http://wheatfoundation.org/the-consequences-of-a-gluten-free-diet-craze/




AMPI names new leadership


Leaders of Associated Milk Producers Inc. (AMPI) have chosen to take a team approach to fill the company’s top management spot. The AMPI Board of Directors today announced it has appointed longtime employees Donn DeVelder and Sheryl Meshke as co-presidents and CEOs.

“Transitioning to a partnership is a natural decision for us because AMPI, by its very nature as a cooperative, is about teamwork,” said Steve Schlangen, chairman of the board and a dairy farmer from Albany, Minn.

“In Donn and Sheryl we have a combined half-century of service to the dairy farmer-owners of AMPI,” he said. “Their individual skills and knowledge of the company’s operations are complementary. This gives us a much broader set of experience and ideas with which to chart AMPI’s strategies for success.”

DeVelder and Meshke were executive senior vice presidents before being named acting co-presidents and CEOs in December. The move followed the resignation of Ed Welch, who had been with the dairy marketing cooperative for 31 years, and president and CEO since 2008.

“Throughout their careers with AMPI, Donn and Sheryl have demonstrated a high level of competence and cooperation, and offered a powerful and thoughtful vision for AMPI’s future,” Schlangen said.

DeVelder has spent more than 30 years with AMPI, beginning as a field representative providing on-farm consultation and assistance to the co-op’s dairy farmer-owners. He then joined the corporate staff at the cooperative’s New Ulm, Minn., office. In his position as executive senior vice president, he was responsible for fluid marketing and member services. DeVelder is a graduate of the University of Northern Iowa.

Meshke has been with AMPI for nearly 25 years. During that time she has served as vice president of public affairs and strategic planning. Following appointment as executive senior vice president, she focused on human resources and strategic initiatives aimed at strengthening the Midwest dairy cooperative’s performance and value. Meshke holds a bachelor’s degree in agriculture from South Dakota State University and a master’s degree in business from the University of St. Thomas.

AMPI is headquartered in New Ulm, Minn., and owned by 2,600 Midwest dairy farm families from Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota and North Dakota. AMPI members annually market about 5.8 billion pounds of milk, resulting in $2 billion in sales for the cooperative. AMPI owns 10 manufacturing plants and markets cheese, butter and powdered dairy products, serving foodservice, retail and food ingredient customers.



Corn Quality Information Shared Around the Globe to Build Ties With Customers


The release of the U.S. Grains Council’s (USGC’s) 2014/2015 Corn Harvest Quality Report has become a globally anticipated event. Within days of its release, the Council started presenting the annual report’s findings to customers in overseas markets to provide them the critical information they need to make informed purchases and build confidence in the quality of this year’s U.S. corn crop.

One of the first presentations of this information was in Cairo, Egypt, where USGC Regional Director of the Middle East and Africa Cary Sifferath along with USGC Marketing Manager in Egypt Hesham Hassanein presented the findings to more than 80 buyers and end-users from the region. Click here to view photos from the event.

Across the globe, in cooperation with the Taiwan Feed Industry Association (TFIA), the Council conducted a Corn Harvest Quality Report symposium in Taipei on Jan. 14.

In attendance were approximately 80 traders, feed millers, major hog and poultry producers and government officials as well as Greg Alber of the Iowa Corn Growers Association, who traveled to the meeting to share his experiences growing corn in the United States. Alber and Council staff addressed questions including the planting intentions of U.S. corn farmers in the upcoming year, production costs for corn, the decrease in crude protein of the 2014 U.S. corn crop and more.

“This symposium was very educational, informative and helpful,” said USGC Director of Taiwan Clover Chang. “This activity enhanced the relationship between U.S. producers and Taiwanese buyers of U.S. corn. It also built the local industry’s confidence in U.S. corn quality and demonstrated that the Council is a leader in the industry at providing reliable, transparent and timely market information.”

This week, the Council also wrapped up its rollouts of the report in Colombia and Japan.

Because of the U.S.-Colombia free trade agreement, that country rose to be the fourth largest U.S. corn market last year. This year, U.S. corn is once again on track to capture approximately 95 percent of this 3.6 million metric ton (142 million bushel) market.

“We were able to have one-on-one meetings with the top five grain importers in the country, who collectively represent more than 70 percent of the total corn market in Colombia,” said Marri Carrow, USGC regional director for the Western Hemisphere, who took part in the Colombian rollout. “That type of interaction is critical to building their confidence and also served to reaffirm to Colombian customers the U.S. corn industry’s commitment to meeting their needs.”

In Japan, the report rollout activities were part of a Corn Outlook Conference that helps keep customers in that mature market informed and deepens ties between U.S. corn farmers and the Japanese livestock farmers who buy their product.

The harvest quality report and a second quality report that examines the impact of handling on quality, the Corn Export Cargo Quality Report, are intended to provide reliable, timely and transparent information on the quality of U.S. corn and allow industry participants to gauge quality changes over time.

The export quality report is expected to be released in March, which will complete the fourth editions in an ongoing series of reports.



Committee Hearing to Examine Freight Rail Challenges


U.S. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), chairman of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, today announced a hearing of the full committee entitled, "Freight Rail Transportation: Enhancing Safety, Efficiency, and Commerce" on Jan. 28 at 10 a.m. ET (9:00 a.m. CT, 8:00 a.m. MT). The hearing will focus on challenges facing our nation's freight rail network created by higher demand, pending and proposed rules and regulations, and infrastructure needs. Next week's hearing continues Thune's work to improve freight rail service for ag producers and shippers and prevent future rail service disruptions from occurring.

"Rail service challenges that began over a year ago throughout South Dakota are still fresh in the minds of ag producers and those who depend on reliable freight rail service," said Thune. "As chairman, I recognize the important role the Commerce Committee has in overseeing our nation's freight rail sector and believe this hearing is key to continuing our work on improving freight rail service. I remain committed to working with shippers, the railroads, and the Surface Transportation Board to examine where things went wrong in the past and determine how we can prevent backlogs and service delays from occurring in the future. The railroads have taken some steps to address these challenges, including record investment, and I look forward to examining the state of the freight rail sector during the upcoming hearing."

Last Congress, the Commerce Committee held various rail related hearings, including a hearing on the rail service challenges facing shippers across the country, which included agriculture producers in South Dakota who struggled with access to reliable freight rail service during a record harvest. In addition, on September 17, 2014, the Commerce Committee passed the bipartisan Surface Transportation Board (STB) reform bill that Senator Thune and former Commerce Committee Chairman Jay Rockefeller (D-W.V.) introduced to institute common-sense reforms regarding how the STB works and to address rate disputes and service complaints.



Dairy Situation and Outlook, January 22, 2015

Bob Cropp, Professor Emeritus, University of Wisconsin-Madison


The year 2014 will be remembered as record milk prices. The average Class III price was $22.34, $4.34 higher than 2013. The average Class IV price was $22.09, $3.04 higher than 2013, and the average U.S. All Milk Price was $23.97, $3.92 higher than 2013. But, as of now it looks like milk prices will be a lot lower this year. By last December the Class III price had declined to$17.82 after peaking at $24.60 back in September. The January Class III price will be about $16.00 and will likely decline further being in the low $14’s March through May before slowly improving and reaching the $16’s last quarter of the year. The Class IV price has declined even more. The Class IV price peaked at $23.89 last August and declined to $16.70 by December. The Class IV price will be near $13.50 in January and not reach $14 until June and recovering to the low $16’s by November. The U.S. All Milk Price peaked at $25.70 last September, had declined to $20.30 by December and will be near $17.45 in January and in the 16’s March through May and reaching the $18’s by September. If this holds milk prices will average about $7 lower than 2014. It looks like there will be payments under the Margin Protection Program at least for those producers who signed up with margin protection above the $6 level. At this time the probability that margins could actually be below $6 is quite low. But, it is early in the year and milk prices are very sensitive to rather small changes in milk production, domestic sales and dairy exports. So the year could turn out quite different than what I just described particularly for the second half of the year. There is just a lot of uncertainty when projecting milk prices six months to a year out.

The question may be what is causing milk prices to decline this far? The answer is increased milk production and lower dairy exports. Domestic sales with the exception of fluid (beverage) milk have been good and are expected to be good in 2015. But, milk production after increasing just 1.3% over a year ago January through June of last year increased 3.5% July through December finishing the year with an increase of 2.4%, the result of an average of 0.4% more cows and 2.0% more milk per cow. Dairy exports which were setting new highs for the first half of the year reaching as much as 17.7% of milk production on a total solids basis in March declined significantly during the second half of the year. Latest export data is for November. Compared to a year ago exports were down 7% for nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder, 13% for cheese, 72% for butter and 17% for dry whey. Exports as a percent of U.S. milk production declined to 14% in November. Exports declined as world milk production increased and at the same time China, the largest importer of dairy products reduced their imports significantly. The result was a decline in world dairy product prices making U.S. dairy products no longer price competitive on the world market.

Dairy product prices have taken quite a tumble bring down milk prices. CME butter which averaged $2.97 per pound last September averaged $1.74 for December and is now $1.55. CME cheddar barrel cheese which averaged $2.37 per pound last September averaged $1.56 for December and is now $1.45. CME 40-pound cheddar blocks which averaged $2.35 last September averaged $1.63 for December and are now $1.47. CME nonfat dry milk which was as high as $2.07 per pound early in 2014 is now $.9525 and Western dry whey which averaged as high as $66.8 per pound last August is now $0.48.

With much more milk dairy product production was running well above a year ago with the exception of butter. Compared to a year ago during November butter production was 4.7% lower, American cheese production 4.5% higher, total cheese production 2.9% higher and nonfat dry milk production 48.9% higher. With the decline in exports skim milk powder production was 45.5% lower.

With higher dairy product production and lower exports stocks have increased modestly. Compared to last December 31st, stocks of butter were still 12.3% lower compared to 17.0% lower on November 30th, American cheese stocks were just 0.9% higher and total cheese stocks just 0.3% higher. November 30th stocks of nonfat dry milk were 89.7% higher.

How soon and how much dairy product prices and milk prices will improve will hinge heavily on the level of milk production and improvement in dairy exports. Currently milk production continues strong. USDA’s latest milk production report estimated December milk production at 3.1% higher than a year ago, the result of 1.1% more milk cows and 2.0% more milk per cow. Texas led the increase at 9.7% by adding 30,000 more cows than last year and a strong 2.7% increase in milk per cow. Michigan’s milk production was 7.8% higher than a year ago by adding 12,000 cows and an increase of 2.5% milk per cow. Idaho had 14,000 more cows than a year ago and milk per cow was up 2.6% resulting in 3.5% more milk. California’s milk production dropped slightly below a year ago at -0.1% due to 1,000 fewer cows and no increase in milk per cow. Increases in milk production for some of the other key dairy states were: Arizona 4.5%, New York 4.1%, Pennsylvania 3.3%, Kansas 6.4%, Colorado 6.6%, Utah 8.8%, South Dakota 6.4%, Iowa 4.9%, Minnesota 2.3% and Wisconsin 3.1%. Besides California only two other states amongst the 23 reporting had less milk, Illinois – 0.6% and Oregon 0.5%. In total 20 of the 23 states had added cows over a year ago. We can expect milk production to continue to run strong at least for the first half of the year. But, with lower milk prices and lower margins the relative increase in milk production will slow as producers increase cow slaughter and not feed as aggressively for more milk per cow. But, for the year milk production may end up 2.6% higher than 2014. USDA is projection is a little higher at 2.8%.

Dairy exports for the year will likely be lower than 2014. World dairy product prices appear to have bottomed out with recent Global Dairy Trade showing some strength in prices. Milk prices are also much lower in the major exporting countries—New Zealand, Australia and the EU-28. New Zealand is also experiencing dry weather, which if it persists, will reduce their milk production in the months ahead. So the increase in world milk production will not be as high as it was in 2014. As accumulated dairy stocks are worked down dairy imports are expected to pick up the last half of the year particularly in China but at a more modest pace.

In summary, as the growth in milk production slows and dairy exports improve for the last half of the year we can expect milk prices to improve. But, unless milk production slows more than now anticipated and/or dairy exports improve more than anticipated milk prices will average much lower than 2014.



Monsanto to Build Its First Seed Plant in Russia


Monsanto plans to open its first plant in Russia in coming years, stepping up its activities in the world's fourth largest grain producer as it seeks to counter the effects of a plunging rouble. The rouble has almost halved in value against the dollar in the past year, hit by falling oil prices, a crumbling economy and political tensions, making local production more attractive.

"We have plans to increase local-produced seeds in Russia and to have a facility there," Leticia Goncalves, who heads Monsanto's operations in Europe and the Middle East, told Reuters in an interview on Thursday.

Monsanto currently operates in Russia through a network of local partners and distributors.

Goncalves declined to name them or give financial details of the firm's ongoing or future business in the country.

Last year the company said it would launch a corn seed plant in neighboring Ukraine, whose currency has also dived, with initial investments of about $140 million possibly rising to $300 million over several years.



Deere to Lay Off Over 1,000 Workers


(AP) -- Deere will lay off about 910 workers indefinitely from factories mostly in Iowa and sideline another 500 employees in Illinois until late summer, as the agricultural equipment maker continues its adjustment to demand for its products.

The Moline, Illinois, company also said Friday that it is adding 220 jobs at construction and forestry factories in Iowa. It plans to fill nearly all those positions with workers were laid off at agricultural equipment factories last year.

The latest indefinite layoffs will be centered on sites that build agricultural equipment, a core element of its business. They include 565 workers from three Waterloo, Iowa, locations; another 300 from the Des Moines Works in Ankeny, Iowa; and 45 from the Harvester Works in East Moline, Illinois.

Employees laid off until summer work at the company's seeding and cylinder factory in Moline. That location is going on an extended inventory adjustment shutdown. The company said it typically goes through a seasonal inventory adjustment around this time of year.

The layoffs will begin in early February, and most will be effective in late March.

Deere & Co. said last August that it would lay off a total of more than 1,000 workers, with those reductions coming from an Iowa tractor factory and four Midwest factories that make harvesting and other agricultural equipment.

The world's biggest farm equipment maker said last fall that it expected its farm equipment sales and profits to fall in the new fiscal year. Falling commodity prices and lower farm income have hurt companies like Deere, which employs about 29,000 people in the United States and Canada and around 60,000 globally.



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