October 9 Crop Production and WASDE Reports

 NEBRASKA CROP PRODUCTION REPORT

Based on October 1 conditions, Nebraska's 2015 corn crop is forecast at a record high 1.66 billion bushels, up 3 percent from last year, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Acreage harvested for grain is estimated at 9.00 million acres, up 1 percent from a year ago. Average yield is forecast at a record high 184 bushels per acre, up 5 bushels from last year.

Soybean production in Nebraska is forecast at a record high 291 million bushels, 1 percent above last year. Area for harvest, at 5.20 million acres, is down 2 percent from 2014. Record yield is forecast at 56 bushels per acre, up 2 bushels from a year ago.

Sorghum production of 24.0 million bushels is up 83 percent from a year ago. Area for grain harvest of 240,000 acres is up 50 percent from last year. Record yield is forecast at 100 bushels per acre, up 18 bushels from last year.

Dry Edible Bean production is forecast at 2.97 million hundredweight, down 22 percent from 2014. Area for harvest, at 129,000 acres, is down 15 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 2,300 pounds per acre, down 200 pounds per acre from last year.

Sugarbeet production is forecast at 1.23 million tons, down 8 percent from 2014. Area for harvest, at 47,000 acres, is down 1,100 acres from last year. Yield is estimated at 26.2 tons per acre, down 2.90 tons per acre from a year ago.

All Sunflower production is forecast at 50.4 million pounds, up 12 percent from last year. Acreage for harvest, at 45,000 acres, is up 11,500 acres from 2014. Yield is forecast at 1,120 pounds per acre, down 225 pounds per acre from a year ago. Of the acres for harvest, non-oil sunflowers account for 18,000 acres and oil sunflowers account for 27,000 acres.

Alfalfa hay production, at 3.36 million tons, is down 1 percent from the 2014 crop. Area for harvest, at 800,000 acres, is down 4 percent from a year ago. Yield, at a record high 4.20 tons per acre, is up 0.10 ton from 2014. All Other Hay production, at 2.70 million tons, is up 3 percent from 2014. Area for harvest, at 1.80 million acres, is up 3 percent from a year ago. Record tying yield of 1.50 tons per acre is unchanged from last year.



IOWA CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATE

 Iowa corn production is forecast at 2.42 billion bushels, 2 percent above the 2014 production and slightly above the September forecast, according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Crop Production report. If realized, production will be a record high, breaking the previous record set in 2009 by 8.3 million bushels. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 183 bushels per acre, an increase of 5 bushels per acre from last year. If realized, the yield will also set a new high, exceeding the previous record of 181 set in 2004 and tied in 2009. Acres planted and harvested for grain, at 13.6 million and 13.2 million acres, respectively, are down 100,000 acres from the September estimate.

Soybean production is forecast at 520 million bushels, up 4 percent from 2014, but 1 percent below the September forecast. If realized, this will be the second largest soybean production on record, 1 percent less than the 525 million bushels produced in 2005. The October 1 forecast yield is 53 bushels per acre, 2.0 bushels above 2014 but unchanged from the September forecast. If realized this will be the highest soybean yield on record, 0.5 bushel above the previous record set in 2005. Area planted and harvested, at 9.90 million and 9.82 million acres, respectively, are up 50,000 acres from 2014, but down 100,000 from the September forecast.

Iowa hay yield for alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures is expected to be 3.60 tons per acre with a total production of 2.95 million tons, a production increase of 1 percent from the previous year. The projected yield for other hay is 2.10 tons per acre, with production at 725,000 tons, down 4 percent from 2014.

All crop forecasts in this report are based on October 1 conditions and do not reflect weather effects since that time. The next production forecasts, based on conditions as of November 1, will be released on November 10.



USDA: Corn Production Down Less Than 1 Percent from September Forecast
Soybean Production Down 1 Percent
Cotton Production Down Less Than 1 Percent

Corn production is forecast at 13.6 billion bushels, down 5 percent from last year's record production and down less than 1 percent from the September forecast. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 168.0 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from the September forecast but down 3.0 bushels from 2014. If realized, this will be the second highest yield and third largest production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 80.7 million acres, down less than 1 percent from the September forecast and down 3 percent from 2014. Acreage updates were made in several States following a thorough review of all available data.

Soybean production is forecast at 3.89 billion bushels, down 1 percent from September and down 1 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 47.2 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushel from last month but down 0.3 bushel from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 82.4 million acres, down 1 percent from September and down slightly from last year. Acreage updates were made in several States based on a thorough review of all available data.

All cotton production is forecast at 13.3 million 480-pound bales, down less than one percent from last month and down 18 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 784 pounds per harvested acre, down 54 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 12.9 million 480-pound bales, down 18 percent from 2014. Pima cotton production, forecast at 451,000 bales, was carried forward from last month.



October 9 2015 World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate - USDA

COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2015/16 U.S. feed grain production is down slightly this month
with a small reduction for corn partly offset by increases for barley and oats. Corn production is
forecast 30 million bushels lower with harvested area lowered 437,000 acres. Partly offsetting is
a 0.5-bushel-per acre increase in the national average corn yield to 168.0 bushels per acre.
Estimated 2015/16 beginning stocks, from the September 30 Grain Stocks report, are nearly
unchanged from last month’s projection. Small revisions to food, seed, and industrial use and
trade, based on the latest data, boost 2014/15 feed and residual use 17 million bushels.
Projected U.S. corn usage for 2015/16 is unchanged this month. Ending stocks are projected 31
million bushels lower to 1,561 million. The 2015/16 season-average corn price received by
producers is projected 5 cents higher on both ends to $3.50 to $4.10 per bushel.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected 8.3 million tons lower mostly on reduced
foreign corn beginning stocks and production. Global corn beginning stocks are lowered 1.2
million tons, reflecting higher 2014/15 EU corn feeding and exports and Ukraine exports. Global
corn production for 2015/16 is lowered 5.5 million tons with reductions for Ukraine, Argentina,
India, Philippines, and several Sub-Saharan African countries more than offsetting an increase
for Brazil. Brazil corn production is also raised for 2014/15. Global 2015/16 production is
lowered for rye, millet, sorghum, and barley. Rye production is lowered for EU. Millet and
sorghum production are lowered for a number of Sub-Saharan African countries. Barley
production is lowered for Russia, but mostly offset by increases for EU, Canada, and Australia.
Mixed grain production is also raised for EU, leaving EU coarse grain production higher on the
month.

Global 2015/16 coarse grain consumption is lowered 6.4 million tons with a 4.8-million-ton
reduction in corn usage and smaller cuts in rye, millet, and sorghum consumption. Much of the
decline in coarse grain consumption is for those Sub-Saharan African counties with lower output
this month; however, reductions are also made for corn consumption in Saudi Arabia, EU,
Ukraine, and Philippines, and rye consumption in EU. Corn trade for 2015/16 is lowered with a
reduction in Saudi Arabia imports. Corn exports are lowered for Ukraine and Argentina but
raised for Brazil. Global 2015/16 corn ending stocks are projected 1.9 million tons lower at 187.8 million, 8.2 million lower than in 2014/15.

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 115.3 million tons, down 0.8
million from last month. Soybean production is forecast at 3,888 million bushels, down 47 million with higher yields only partly offsetting reduced harvested area. The soybean yield is forecast at 47.2 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushels from the September forecast. Harvested area is reduced 1.1 million acres to 82.4 million. Soybean supplies for 2015/16 are projected 66 million bushels below last month with lower beginning stocks and production. Sunflowerseed and canola production are forcast higher on higher yields and harvested area.

U.S. soybean exports for 2015/16 are reduced 50 million bushels to 1,675 million on the slow
pace of sales and increased competitor supplies. Soybean crush is projected at 1,880 million, up
10 million on higher domestic soybean meal disappearance, which is raised in line with an
increase for 2014/15. Soybean ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 425 million bushels,
down 25 million. The soybean price is projected at $8.40 to $9.90, unchanged from last month.
Soybean meal and soybean oil price projections are also unchanged at $310 to $350 per short
ton and 27.5 to 30.5 cents per pound, respectively.

Soybean balance sheet changes for 2014/15 include lower planted and harvested area, lower
yield, production, and ending stocks from the September 30 Grain Stocks report. Exports are
increased based on final trade data for the marketing year. Soybean crush is raised based on
data from the October 1 Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks
report published by NASS.

Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 531.0 million tons, up 3.9 million from last
month on higher soybean, rapeseed, sunflower, and peanut production. Global soybean
production is projected at a record 320.5 million tons, up 0.9 million with higher Brazil production only partly offset by lower projections for the United States, India, and Ukraine. Brazil soybean production is projected at a record 100.0 million tons on higher area. A sharp decline in the value of the Brazilian real recent months is expected to lead to increased area despite lowerinternational soybean prices this year. Soybean crops in Ukraine and India are reduced on lower projected yields. Rapeseed production for Canada is projected at 14.3 million tons, up 1.0 million based on higher yields reported in the most recent survey from Statistics Canada. Global sunflowerseed production is raised on higher estimates for Argentina and Ukraine. Global cottonseed production is projected lower with reductions for China and Pakistan only partly offset an increase for Brazil.

Global oilseed stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 96.3 million tons, up 1.4 million mainly on
higher rapeseed stocks in Canada and China, and higher sunflowerseed stocks in Argentina and
Ukraine. Global soybean stocks are raised marginally as higher stocks for Brazil are only partly
offset by reductions for the United States, Argentina, and India.

WHEAT: Projected U.S. ending stocks for 2015/16 are lowered 14 million bushels as decreased
production more than offsets a decline in total use. Production for 2015/16 is lowered 84 million bushels based on the latest estimate from the NASS September 30 Small Grains 2015
Summary. Feed and residual use is lowered 20 million bushels reflecting the September 1
stocks that indicated lower-than-expected June-August disappearance. Exports are lowered 50
million bushels to 850 million on a slow sales pace to date and continued lack of U.S. price
competitiveness, particularly compared to Black Sea Countries and EU. The projected range for
the 2015/16 U.S. season-average farm price is narrowed 10 cents on both the high and low ends to $4.75 to $5.25 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 2.0 million tons, on both increased production and
beginning stocks. The biggest production increases are 1.0 million tons each for Australia and
Canada, and 1.1 million tons for EU. The Canada and EU increases are based on government
reports and harvest progress. Australia had sufficient sub-soil moisture that allowed it to
withstand a drier-than-normal September; increased yield potential is supported by satellite
imagery. The United States had the largest production decline. The global wheat crop is now
projected at 732.8 million tons, the third consecutive record.

World wheat exports for 2015/16 are raised 3.0 million tons with increases for several key U.S.
competitors. Ukraine is raised 1.5 million tons on a larger crop. Canada exports are raised 1.0
million tons, and Australia, the EU, Kazakhstan, and Russia are each raised 0.5 million tons.
These increases are based on larger supplies and export pace to date. Partly offsetting is a 1.4
million ton reduction for the United States and a 0.5 million ton decline for Argentina. Imports are raised 1.0 million tons in Iran on the elimination of an import duty and 0.5 million tons in Syria because of distribution problems. Total world usage is up fractionally, and ending stocks are raised 1.9 million tons to a record 228.5 million tons.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecasts for total meat production in 2015 and 2016
are increased from last month. Beef production for 2015 is raised on larger forecast slaughter of
fed cattle in the second half of 2015 and heavier carcass weights. The forecast for 2016 is
raised as cattle slaughter and carcass weights in the first half are projected higher than last
month. The pork production forecasts for both 2015 and 2016 are raised. The pace of hog
slaughter in the remainder of 2015 is expected to be higher. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs
estimated less of a decline in sows farrowing during June-August than indicated in prior
intentions and farrowing intentions into early 2016 support an increase in forecast pork
production for 2016. Broiler production is raised for 2015 as a larger third quarter level more
than offsets a reduction for the fourth quarter, but the forecast for 2016 is reduced as broiler
producers have slowed the pace of egg sets. Turkey production for 2015 is lowered based on
third-quarter production data; subsequent quarters through 2016 are unchanged. Egg production for 2015 is raised on higher third quarter hatching egg production. Production forecasts for 2016 are unchanged.

Beef imports are unchanged for 2015 and 2016. Beef exports for 2015 and 2016 are lowered as
demand is projected to remain relatively weak. Pork export forecasts are unchanged, but a small increase is made to third-quarter 2015 imports based on recent trade data. Broiler exports are reduced from last month as slow global demand is expected to continue for in the remainder of the year and into 2016.

Cattle prices for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month on current large supplies of market ready cattle, weaker demand and competition from relatively large supplies of competing meats.  Hog prices are raised for both 2015 and 2016 as demand has firmed. Broiler prices are lowered for both 2015 and 2016 on relatively large broiler meat supplies. Turkey prices are raised for 2015 on current price strength, but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged from last month. Egg prices for 2015 are lowered reflecting recent price declines, but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged.

Milk production forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are unchanged from last month. Fat-basis imports
are increased as domestic demand continues to support higher imports of cheese and butter.
Exports are reduced for 2015 on weaker cheese sales, but are unchanged for 2016. Skim-solids
imports are reduced for 2015 and 2016, while exports are reduced for 2015 and unchanged for
2016. Large world supplies of dairy products, a strong dollar, and generally weak global demand
are expected to continue to pressure exports during 2015 and 2016.

Although butter prices have declined sharply from recent high levels, domestic demand for butter is expected to support relatively high butter prices during 2016. The butter price for 2015 is unchanged at the midpoint, and is raised for 2016. Cheese prices are raised for 2015 and 2016
on support from domestic demand. Nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are forecast higher in 2015 and 2016 reflecting a rebound in both domestic and international prices. Whey prices are lowered for both 2015 and 2016 as supplies are large. Class III prices are raised for 2015, but lowered for 2016 as the decline in whey prices more than offsets higher cheese prices. Class IV prices are raised for both 2015 and 2016 due to higher butter and NDM prices. The all milk price is raised to $16.90 to $17.00 per cwt for 2015, but lowered to $16.05 to $16.95 per cwt for 2016.