Tuesday October 2 Ag News

Nebraska Soybean Board Representatives Visit Japan on Trade Mission

Four Nebraska producers made a mission critical trip to Japan to promote beef and pork exports. Japan is currently the United States’ third largest beef export and the number one value market for U.S. pork. The objective of the visit was to engage with Japanese consumers, showcase the quality of the United States’ pork and beef products and to enhance trade relations.

“Building a good working and trustworthy trade relationship based on history of quality, safe products for consumption and reliability are vitally important to Japan consumers.” Said Gwen Beckman a Nebraska pork producer. “To me it was evident how hard our commodity check-off dollars and organizations like U.S.M.E.F. work to ensure U.S. goods are valued in other markets.”

Meeting with social influencers was an eye-opening experience for both the consumer and U.S.M.E.F members. Understanding the story behind their food is a growing trend in Japanese culture. From origin to production to finished product motivates purchases in the country. Yoshio Okusaka attended the meeting and was excited to meet the producers. Knowing where food comes from affects Okusaka’s purchasing decisions and he shared he is willing to pay more if he knows the background of his foods.

“The experience opened my eyes to how much the Japanese love American Agriculture. Japan is a growing market and the visit showcased the market potential for American producers which paints an opportunistic future.” Said Beckman.



Cuming County Board of Supervisors Seeking Extension Board Nominations
Larry Howard, Extension Educator, Cuming County

The Cuming County Board of Supervisors, are seeking nominations for individuals interested in serving a three-year term on the Cuming County Extension Board.  Due to changes in the laws, Extension Board Members are appointed by the Board of Supervisors rather than being elected.

One position on the Cuming County Extension Board is up for appointment. The district lines are defined according to the Cuming County Board of Supervisors districts.  Nominees are needed for the districts served by Supervisors Judy Mutzenberger, District III Potential candidates are encouraged to contact the Extension Office or the Cuming County Clerk, Bonnie Vogltance, if you have questions on which supervisor district you reside in.

A nominating committee is seeking nominations or calls from interested individuals.  This nominating committee will be responsible for preparing a slate of potential candidates that will be submitted to the Board of Supervisors for their consideration.  If you are interested in being a candidate, please feel free to contact the Cuming County Extension office 402/372-6006. You may also contact nominating committee members Chris Kreikemeier or Terry Jahnke.

According to Extension Educator Larry Howard the operation of Nebraska Extension should be given serious consideration by all county residents.  It operates the tax funds under the guidance of the Cuming county Extension Board. Extension programs focus on priority needs and issues facing people of the county.



HEUERMANN LECTURE TO FEATURE CHUCK HAGEL, BOB KERREY

Chuck Hagel and Bob Kerrey, former U.S. senators for Nebraska, will discuss civil discourse and its impacts on the state’s future during the first Heuermann Lecture of the season Oct. 22.

The free lecture, sponsored by the University of Nebraska–Lincoln’s Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, will be at 3:30 p.m. at the Nebraska Innovation Campus Conference Center, 2021 Transformation Drive.

Hagel was the 24th secretary of defense, serving from February 2013 to February 2015. He is the only Vietnam veteran and the first enlisted combat veteran to be secretary of defense. He also served two terms in the U.S. Senate from 1997-2009. He was a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations; Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs; and Intelligence committees. Prior to being elected senator, Hagel was president of McCarthy and Company, an investment banking firm based in Omaha, and chairman of the board of American Information Systems.

Kerrey is managing director at investment banking firm Allen and Company, based in New York. He is also the executive chairman of the Minerva Institute. Kerrey served two terms in the U.S. Senate from 1989-2001. He was on the Senate's Agriculture and Forestry Committee and was a leader in drafting farm legislation, soil and water conservation statutes, and regulations to promote equity in rural health, communication and transportation. Prior to serving in the Senate, Kerrey was Nebraska's governor for four years. He also served three years in the U.S. Navy in the Vietnam War and received a Congressional Medal of Honor for his service as a Navy SEAL.

Heuermann Lectures are funded by a gift from B. Keith and Norma Heuermann of Phillips. The Heuermanns are longtime university supporters with a strong commitment to Nebraska’s production agriculture, natural resources, rural areas and people.

Lectures are streamed live at http://heuermannlectures.unl.edu/ and air live on campus channel 4. Lectures are archived after the event and are later broadcast on NET2.



Registration Now Open for 2019 Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show Jan. 30 – Feb. 1

Registration and housing for the 2019 Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade show is now open. The annual convention will be held in New Orleans, La., Jan. 30 – Feb. 1, 2019. Advanced registration is now open, and its recommended attendees register early, as convenient housing will fill quickly. Annual meetings of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, the Cattlemen’s Beef Board, American National CattleWomen, CattleFax and National Cattlemen’s Foundation will be held at this event.

Convention participants will gather insights on industry trends at a CattleFax Outlook Seminar, enjoy an evening of entertainment from country music entertainers Big & Rich, hear from NFL Hall of Famer and Super Bowl champion Terry Bradshaw at the Opening General Session, be part of the country’s largest cattle industry trade show (with more than 300 exhibitors on more than 6 ½ acres), work with other industry leaders on both beef checkoff and NCBA policy efforts, and appreciate fellowship with thousands of other cattle producers from around the country. And that just scratches the surface of the event.

The convention will again be preceded by 26th annual Cattlemen’s College, which is famous for stimulating and thought-provoking sessions that can help generate high returns for cattle operations. The event will begin on Jan. 29 with an afternoon session featuring Temple Grandin, be followed by an evening reception and be continued the next morning with a morning full of educational sessions.

In addition, the National Environmental Stewardship Award winner will be named, and some of the industry’s most cutting-edge individuals will be recognized at the Best of Beef Breakfast.

NCBA President and California cattleman Kevin Kester says the convention is the highlight of the year for many of the people who attend. “Combining the education, information, entertainment, engagement and important decision-making opportunities, the convention is what many producers look forward to every year,” says Kester. “This year’s event in New Orleans presents a welcome new and entertaining opportunity to explore a different part of the country, while retaining traditional elements of the convention we have come to expect and appreciate.”

To register and secure housing for the 2019 Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show, visit www.beefusa.org. 



Growth Energy Launches New Website Introducing Unleaded 88 to Consumers, Retailers

Today, Growth Energy announced the launch of a new consumer-facing website for Unleaded 88 fuel: Unl88.com. Unleaded 88 is the unified brand identify for E15 - a fuel blended with 15 percent ethanol - and is approved by the Environmental Protection Agency for cars model year 2001 and newer – about 9 out of 10 cars on the road today.

 UNL88.com is an easy to navigate hub for consumers looking for more information on Unleaded 88 and its’ benefits. The website showcases the value Unleaded 88 provides – whether consumers are looking for a fuel that’s good for their engines, their wallets, or the environment – in a simple and straightforward way. Born out of a request from convenience store retailers for a unified brand identity for E15, Unleaded 88 has made its debut across the country and will be the consistent labeling at more than 80 percent of today’s E15 stations.

“We are thrilled for Unl88.com to help boost the already successful reputation of E15 and give American drivers more confidence in their fuel choice,” said Growth Energy Vice President of Market Development Mike O’Brien. “The website is designed to highlight the benefits of this biofuel blend in a clear, concise way to better communicate Unleaded 88’s engine smart and earth kind attributes. Unifying the identity of E15 under Unleaded 88 provides a consistent and recognizable fuel brand and by the end of the 2018, consumers will be able to find Unleaded 88 labeled pumps at supporting retail locations across the nation, whether they’re filling up at a station in Minnesota or Pennsylvania.”



ASA’s WISHH to Launch Aqua Feed Program in Cambodia

The American Soybean Association’s (ASA) WISHH Program is building on its successful track record in aquaculture development by launching the Commercialization of Aquaculture for Sustainable Trade (CAST) – Cambodia. CAST will connect trade and development by accelerating production of high-demand fish species for the Cambodian market and developing a lasting aquaculture industry that recognizes the value of soy protein in feed.

As a result of an extensive competitive proposal process, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has selected WISHH to implement CAST under the USDA Food for Progress Program. WISHH’s previous FEEDing Pakistan project, also funded by USDA, played a groundbreaking role in introducing tilapia and U.S. soybean meal to Pakistan’s aquaculture industry. Now the fifth most populous country in the world, Pakistan continues to be an important U.S. soy customer. In West Africa, WISHH is currently implementing the AMPLIFIES Ghana project that improves Ghana’s poultry feed production capacity and increases efficiency in poultry value chains.

“CAST is an exciting affirmation of WISHH’s ability to connect trade and development,” said WISHH Chairman Daryl Cates, an Illinois soybean grower. “WISHH is a trailblazer for trade through CAST, which will improve agricultural productivity and expand trade of agricultural products through commercial aquaculture sector growth in Cambodia.”

The Southeast Asian country’s GDP has increased by more than 7 percent per year since 2011, growing the demand for animal and aquaculture-sourced protein. CAST’s anticipated local economic impact exceeds $300 million over the life of the project, and, Cambodia’s aquaculture industry demand for soybean protein is projected to reach 100,000 metric tons per year by 2030.

WISHH committee members have traveled to Cambodia and are eye witnesses to the potential for U.S. soy in the country. “I had the opportunity to represent Missouri soybean farmers on a trade mission to Cambodia last year,” said soybean grower David Lueck of Alma, Mo., who also serves on the WISHH Program Committee.” The Cambodian feed sector is growing rapidly, and they are increasing their consumption of U.S. soy.”

North Dakota soybean grower Matt Gast also serves on the WISHH Committee and joined WISHH staff in a variety of meetings in the region. “Aquaculture is really taking off in Cambodia, and soy protein demand will grow with it,” Gast said. “An importer of U.S. beans is building a brand new fish feed plant in Phnom Penh!”

The CAST project will benefit from the expertise of key partners, including Kansas State University, Auburn University and local universities in Cambodia. Importantly, Cambodia’s local private-sector feed mills and hatcheries and the Cambodian Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries are all collaborating with WISHH to implement CAST.



FARM Program Launches Fourth Silo: FARM Workforce Development

The National Dairy FARM Program announced today the launch of its fourth program area, FARM Workforce Development. The initiative provides U.S. dairy farm owners and managers with educational tools that offer best management practices around human resources – including hiring, training, and supervision – and worker health and safety.

FARM Workforce Development was created by stakeholders from the entire dairy value chain to provide educational materials on one of the most pressing concerns for the dairy sector. The human resources part of the program focuses on how to best attract, invest in, and retain a professional, high-quality, engaged workforce.

The safety portion outlines how farms can further cultivate and demonstrate continuous commitment to on-farm safety. For the safety portion of the initiative, FARM is collaborating with the Idaho Dairymen’s Association (IDA) to develop a best-in-class safety resource for dairy farm owners and managers. IDA’s Dairy Workforce Training & Safety Program Oversight Board includes representation from dairy farm employees to provide the worker perspective into the development of the safety manual.

According to FARM Program management, these new educational resources will help farmers who want to broaden their understanding and implementation of human resources tools and safety practices for their employees.

“By making these tools available, we will further demonstrate the dairy industry’s existing commitment to continuous improvement in human resources and worker safety,” said Emily Yeiser Stepp, senior director of the FARM Program. “This new component of the FARM Program offers educational materials tailored to the needs of U.S. dairy farms of all sizes.”

The National Dairy Farmers Assuring Responsible Management (FARM) Program began developing its newest component last year, gathering expert and stakeholder input through its Workforce Development Task Force. Farmers, cooperative staff, academics, and other subject matter experts – divided into working groups – have reviewed, recommended and provided counsel on the program area’s resources. This reliance on stakeholder input ensures the Workforce Development materials are technically robust and relevant to today’s dairy industry.

The educational resources will provide farm owners with resources that can assist in increasing worker engagement, reducing employee turnover and enhancing the safety of dairy farming. Some of those resources will include:
-    State-by-state and federal legal fact sheets that summarize state laws and regulations on a variety of human resource issues for dairy farms, including wages, benefits, payroll, youth employment and more.
-    The FARM Human Resources Reference Manual that contains a self-assessment and templates, including a sample employee handbook.
-    The FARM Safety Reference Manual that provides dairy owners and managers with an overview of safety management best practices, legal considerations and more.

"Dairy farm employees are dedicated to high-quality animal care and producing nutritious milk. Farm owners and managers share that dedication and strive to create work environments that attract and retain employees. Until now, they didn't always have access to the proper resources to advance their farm's HR and safety management goals," said Nicole Ayache, NMPF’s Director of Sustainability Initiatives and FARM Workforce Development team leader. "It only made sense to bring those goals into the FARM Program's spirit of continuous improvement to enhance the safe, secure, and thriving work environments on our dairy farms."



USDA Announces Ag Census Response Rate, Release Details

The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service concluded data collection for the 2017 Census of Agriculture with a 71.5 percent national response rate. The Census, conducted once every five years, was mailed to more than 3 million known and potential farms and ranches across the United States late last year. Data collection ended this July. Puerto Rico and other U.S. territories will receive their Census of Agriculture questionnaires in January 2019.

The 71.5 percent response rate for 2017 came in below the 74.5 percent response rate for the 2012 Census of Agriculture.

Data from the 2017 Census of Agriculture is scheduled to be released starting on February 21, 2019, in conjunction with the 2019 Agricultural Outlook Forum and continue on a staggered schedule through the spring of 2019. The results of the Census will be available in aggregate form, ensuring that no individual operation or producer can be identified, as required by Federal law. All Census data products will be available on NASS' recently merged NASS/Ag Census website at www.nass.usda.gov/AgCensus. Watch for additional news about the Ag Census on USDA-NASS social media.

Two Census special studies will also be conducted this winter: the 2018 Census of Aquaculture and the 2018 Irrigation and Water Management Survey. These questionnaires will be mailed in December and January, respectively, to the farms that reported these activities in the 2017 Census of Agriculture. For more information about these upcoming special studies, visit www.nass.usda.gov/AgCensus.

The Census of Agriculture provides the only source of comprehensive agricultural data for every State and county in the nation. As such, the data are widely-used by local and national decision-makers to help shape agricultural research and education programs, inform farm programs, boost rural infrastructure, determine disaster relief needs, and more.



Pork Prospects Improve, But Losses Loom
Chris Hurt, Purdue University

The pork outlook looked bleak in August. Fear of large pork supplies and Mexican and Chinese tariffs on U.S. pork exports appeared disastrous to hog prices. At that time, my forecast was for losses of $40 or more per head in the fall and winter, the worst since 1998. The outlook is still suggesting losses this fall and winter but much less than in August.

In the recent USDA inventory report, pork producers said they were continuing to expand the breeding herd by 3.5 percent above year-previous levels. The breeding herd has been expanding steadily since 2014 when the PED virus caused large baby pig losses resulting in skyrocketing hog prices and profits. The second driver since 2014 has been lower feed costs.

Producers reported the market herd was up three percent and represents the supply of hogs to come to market over the next five months. Farrowing intentions for this fall and winter were up two percent and with increased pigs per litter means that the number of market hogs in the spring and summer of 2019 are expected to be up about three percent.

Pork production will reach record levels in 2018 near 26.5 billion pounds. That record is expected to be broken in 2019 when production may reach 27.3 billion pounds-another three percent increase.

Why did lean hog futures collapse in the summer? We know that futures markets anticipate supply and demand conditions into the future, and sometimes the anticipation of bad news is not as severe as originally thought.

This seems to be the situation this year, especially related to the late-summer anticipation of the negative impacts of Mexican and Chinese tariffs on U.S. pork exports. Pork exports represent 22 percent of production and thus have become very important to the price of hogs. In addition, the tariff situation was a new event with little historic precedent for the market to draw on.

The magnitude of the price drop was huge. December lean hog futures as an example fell from about $60 in June to $44 by early August. The good news is that prices have recovered most of the decline, rising back to $58 by September 28.

So what are export prospects and what do we know so far about the influence of the tariffs? First, we can relate that USDA analysts expect pork exports to rise by a strong 6.3 percent this year. Official Census trade data through July show that exports had been up 6.5 percent which is encouraging

July was the first month of the full Chinese tariffs on U.S. pork. Our July pork exports to China and Hong Kong were down 17 percent. However exports to Mexico-our largest export customer were only down one percent. More importantly, total pork exports were up nearly nine percent with notable increases to Japan and South Korea, our second and fourth largest export buyers.

Weekly USDA Export Sales Reports extend through the week ending September 20 and have total commitments (already exported plus unshipped sales for this year) up 5.3 percent. On this more extensive data, China (plus Hong Kong) commitments for the year are down 32 percent; Mexico is unchanged; Canada is up 11 percent; and South Korea is up 37 percent. Together this information helps support the idea of stronger exports.

Mexican purchases seem to not be affected much by the tariffs and they are our largest customer purchasing 32% of all pork export volume in 2017. Exports to China and Hong Kong have been negatively impact, but they are much smaller-representing just nine percent of exports in 2017. In addition other buyers have more than compensated for the lost volume to China.

The second factor providing more optimism to lean hog futures has been the concern over potential hog death losses in China from African Swine Fever (ASF). ASF is difficult to control and animals must be destroyed in order to control the disease. China's pork production is 4.5 times that of the U.S. In addition, they raise 97 percent of their consumption domestically and import only three percent. So, a one percent loss of their production means they will need to increase imports by about one-third.

If ASF does result in increased Chinese imports, the U.S. may not get that business, but rather Canada and the EU will. The advantage for the U.S. is that we will get added exports to some of the destinations that Canada and the EU were shipping to.

Live weight prices for 51-52 percent lean carcasses are expected to average in the low $40s in the final quarter this year. An improvement to the mid-$40s is expected for the first quarter of 2019, and then low $50s in the spring and summer quarters. Price forecasts for the fall of 2019 drop back to the low-to-mid $40s.

Cost of production estimates are $49 to $51 per live hundredweight. My outlook is for losses of $10 to $20 per head this fall and winter and then for profits of $5 to $10 a head next spring and summer, before returning to losses late in 2019.

Needless to say, the pork outlook has improved with considerable uncertainties. Trade issues with Mexico have improved with a bilateral agreement. However it remains unclear if Congress will accept this potential agreement with Mexico without a trilateral agreement with Canada. The trade disagreements with China continue to escalate and it remains unknown if African Swine Fever will result in China increasing pork imports.

What does seem assured is that pork supplies will be at record levels. The recent rate of U.S. pork expansion probably cannot be sustained. The industry will simply reach a point where supplies are too large to sell at profitable prices.