Monday February 25 Ag News

Charting Commodities: Technical vs Fundamental Analysis
Austin Duerfeldt - Agricultural Systems Economist Extension Educator
A new series of articles, Charting Commodities, is going to cover the basics of some of the more common indicators used in technical analysis. As a starting point, I realize that defining technical analysis and comparing it to fundamental analysis would be beneficial before starting these articles. Let’s take a look at what technical analysis and fundamental analysis are.

Technical Analysis
Technical analysis is the study of past trading activity and price changes. Under this method it is thought that by understanding past events in trading, patterns will emerge that can help indicate future price movements. Two underlying principles define technical analysis. The first is that the market price discounts every factor that influences the commodity price. An example of this would be that the release of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report by USDA should not create any major trend shift in trading. Technical analysis states the market has already adjusted to match the report before its release.

The second important principle of technical analysis is that price movements are not random, but move in definable patterns and trends. These patterns and trends repeat over time. A fantastic commodity to assess this is cattle. There is a well documented 10- to 12-year cycle that many analysts refer to. The biggest hurdle is learning a few indicators that work for you. Trying to use too many indicators makes timely market interpretation difficult. The second hurdle is not forcing an indicator onto a chart. You have to let the pattern develop on its own.

Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis is the use of quantitative and qualitative measures to determine future market trend. On the quantitative side, those who use fundamental analysis will look at reports. In the commodity markets this reporting commonly takes the shape of USDA reports such as the WASDE. In terms of qualitative measures, this tends to be difficult to measure. National trade agreements, tariffs, new production regulations, the weather forecast, and other events tend to be the focus of attention. As an example, orange juice futures will tend to take a jump in price in the spring if a late freeze is predicted for Florida. Why? Because a late freeze will decrease supply. Supply and demand is the driving focus, and two simple formulas define market expectations. If demand is greater than supply, prices will increase. If supply is greater than demand, prices will decrease. These formulas describe a basic economic principle called the Law of Supply and Demand.

Conclusion
Technical analysis and fundamental analysis are both valid approaches when interpreting commodity markets. Both methods can provide helpful insight at times. By understanding how the market moves and reacts to certain stimulants, it allows managers to better grasp the choices they will be facing. Neither method of analysis is a substitute for a well thought out marketing plan.



Reproductive Losses in Beef Cattle: Diagnosing the Cause 
Steve Neimeyer – NE Extension Educator

Reproductive losses account for $1 billion dollars in lost revenue to the beef industry each year. All the way from conception to birth, we depend on a lot of things to go right, whether we are talking about natural or artificial breeding programs. Nevertheless, reproductive failure whether presented as early or late term abortions (miscarriages) result in those animals never being born and having a stark effect on the operation’s bottom line. Utilizing proper health and nutrition programs are ways we can try to reduce reproductive failure from occurring. Yet, if failures occur, diagnosing the cause can be helpful in preventing the issue in the future.   

Possible Causes
It is often difficult to pinpoint exactly what went wrong when abortions occur. All livestock producers expect a certain degree of late-term abortions or stillbirths. It is generally accepted that any cattle operation will have 1-2% of “normal” pregnancy loss after a month or two of gestation. With spring calving herds, January and February are when many abortion cases are submitted to the SDSU veterinary diagnostic laboratory. In about half of the cases submitted to the SDSU Diagnostic lab, no abnormalities are detected (Table 1). There are many reasons for this, such as that the infectious agents are often not detectable anymore by the time the fetus is expelled, or stillborn calves were aborted due to abnormal presentation or twin pregnancies.

In the rest of the cases, something abnormal is found. A frequent finding is inflammation in the placenta that may or may not be traced to a specific germ. The placenta in a pregnant animal is the gateway from the mother’s blood supply (carrying nutrients and oxygen, but possibly bacteria and viruses) to the fetus. If something affects that critical tissue, then the fetus may become starved from oxygen and die. When germs are found, they are often more environmental than contagious in nature, and very few cows experience problems. Lastly, sometimes infectious agents such as IBR, BVD, or leptospirosis are identified, for which effective vaccines are available.

Abortion Diagnosis
So what should a cattle producer do when a late-term abortion is encountered? Start with your local veterinarian to discuss the details of your issue and whether there are similar problems in other neighboring herds. When the number of abortions in a group exceeds one or two, it’s generally time to get a diagnosis.

Sample Submission
Diagnostic success can be improved by promptly submitting the proper samples. While the following recommendations are likely sufficient for most veterinary diagnostic laboratories, your veterinarian should confirm these with their particular lab. When possible, the entire fetus and placenta – chilled but not frozen – is the most desirable specimen. The placenta is of particular importance and should be included whenever possible. Significant microscopic changes and germ identification often stem from examining the placenta. Other samples to submit if you do not want to send in the whole fetus include, heart, lung, liver, kidney, spleen, brain, skeletal muscle (tongue or diaphragm), fetal stomach fluid and fetal thoracic fluid or heart blood. A veterinarian will likely collect and send these samples off for you; however, the herd history information should be given to them to assist with choosing diagnostic tests. 

Information to include:
·    Number of animals in the herd, including recent purchases or movements
·    Number of abortions and previous diagnoses, if any
·    Age and breed of dams
·    Gestational age of abortions
·    Pertinent treatment or vaccinations
     Using Results

Depending on the results, your veterinarian will follow up and advise you on potential herd management changes. If an environmental cause such as mold is identified, examining feed sources is a necessary intervention to determine what feeds are contaminated. In addition, if infectious agents are found, implementing a sound pre-breeding vaccination program for next year’s heifers is a must, Cow vaccine boosters to prevent early and late term abortions should also be considered.

The Bottom Line 
With reproduction, focusing on what we can control and diagnose is the key to helping avoid these losses within our herd.



NEBRASKA CROP PROGRESS AND CONDITION

For the month of February 2019, topsoil moisture supplies rated 1 percent very short, 7 short, 77 adequate, and 15 surplus, according to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. Subsoil moisture supplies rated 1 percent very short, 6 short, 83 adequate, and 10 surplus.

Field Crops Report: Winter wheat condition rated 1 percent very poor, 2 poor, 37 fair, 51 good, and 9 excellent.

The next monthly report (for March) will be issued March 25, 2019. Weekly reports will begin April 1st for the 2019 season.



Hoegemeyer announces availability of Enlist E3TM soybeans for the Western Corn Belt

As part of our commitment to bring growers the right seed, Hoegemeyer Hybrids is pleased to announce we will carry newly available Enlist E3TM soybeans for the 2019 planting season.

“Our customers have been eagerly awaiting Enlist E3 soybeans,” said Stephan Becerra, Hoegemeyer General Manager. “This is going to be a very effective option, especially for those farmers battling resistant weeds, which, unfortunately, have been an increasing problem in our area.”

Enlist E3 soybeans deliver one of the most advanced soybean technologies on the market, with tolerance to 2,4-D choline in EnlistTM herbicides, glyphosate and glufosinate. By building on the glyphosate and glufosinate systems in soybeans and adding a third herbicide tolerance, Enlist E3 soybeans provide a new standard for weed control and yield potential.

As part of the Enlist weed control system, Enlist E3 soybeans can be sprayed with Enlist Duo® and Enlist One® herbicides. Both herbicides feature 2,4-D choline with Colex-D® technology to provide superior weed control with minimized potential for physical drift and near-zero volatility. Enlist herbicides are up to 96 percent less volatile than 2,4-D ester. When used with low-drift nozzles, drift with Enlist herbicides is reduced by as much as 90 percent compared with traditional 2,4-D.

“What we like about the Enlist weed control system is that it’s easy to use and does what it says,” noted Hoegemeyer Soybean Leader, Mike Carr. “You’ll find the Enlist herbicides go where they’re supposed to and kill weeds fast. With weeds out of the way, the beans really thrive. There’s no need to compromise yield for weed control with Enlist E3 soybeans.”

Hoegemeyer will offer 10 Enlist E3 soybean varieties for the inaugural season of this new technology. Carr commented, “These varieties were selected especially for their performance in the Western Corn Belt. E3 soybeans are the result of an extensive breeding and development effort. Additionally, growers across the corn-belt have tested some of these varieties in the field so we are confident in our recommendations. The genetics look great and believe farmers will be pleased.”



Bergin named Center for Rural Affairs development director

The Center for Rural Affairs recently hired Nick Bergin, of Bronson, Iowa, as development director.

Bergin will lead the organization’s individual donor fundraising activities and coordinate institutional funding strategies.

“Nick brings a passion for storytelling and community, and will be an asset in our outreach and donor cultivation,” said Brian Depew, Center executive director.

Prior to joining the Center, Bergin spent a decade as a newspaper reporter, then worked for 18 months as a marketing director of a for-profit business.

“Rural people have unique voices, dreams, and challenges,” Bergin said. “I’m proud to be a part of the Center’s ongoing work to create strong and sustainable communities.”

Bergin is based in the Lyons office and can be reached at 402.687.2100 ext. 1035 or nickb@cfra.org.



No Details Yet on Farm Bill Implementation
Nancy Johner, Nebraska Farm Service Agency

FSA offices across the state have had a busy few weeks in February, working hard to help you meet enrollment requirements and timelines for programs like the Market Facilitation Program, as well as processing 2019 farm operating loans. We know you are preparing for spring planting and perhaps calving season (if you haven't already started), so please know we will do all we can to get you in and out the door when you drop by our offices for these and other services.

One of the most common questions we are getting these days is "what are you hearing about the new Farm Bill?"

At this point, we know the Farm Bill was enacted on Dec. 20, 2018, and we know they are working hard at FSA headquarters in Washington, D.C., to analyze it to understand all the changes that were initiated through it.

Beyond that, we don't have much in the way of official 2018 Farm Bill details. I am sure you are anxious to get enrolled in the main commodity crop safety net programs - the Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs -- both of which were retained, or to learn more about the increased farm operating and ownership loan limits that were approved. Trust me when I say the Nebraska FSA staff across the state is excited to get started, too.

As soon as we have more Farm Bill details, we will get that information out to you. Here's what you can do in the meantime: If you've added or lost acres to your farm or ranch operation, changed addresses or are banking at a different financial institution than last year, let us know. All these changes are important to your FSA record and our timely delivery of program benefits to you. Taking care of this now is one less thing we will have to worry about when the new Farm Bill details come out.



Catching Up on Reports
David P. Anderson, Extension Economist, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service

USDA continues to catch up on reports stalled by the shutdown and as part of catching up released the January Cattle on Feed report on Friday, February 22. The report has lost a little bit of it's normal timeliness, but still contains a few interesting nuggets.

The headline numbers were placements down 1.8 percent, marketings down 0.6 percent, and January 1 Cattle on Feed up 1.7 percent. The year-over-year increase in cattle on feed continues to get smaller. Another month of reduced placements, the fourth in a row below the year before, means that total placements in 2018 were 1 percent below 2017. So fewer cattle were placed from a larger cowherd and larger calf crop.

One of the more interesting numbers in the report was the quarterly estimate of the breakdown of steers and heifers on feed. Heifers on feed totaled 4.41 million head, up 6.2 percent from the year before. That was the most January 1 heifers on feed since 2012. Slightly fewer steers (0.8 percent) were reported on feed compared to a year ago. Slaughter data, through early February, indicated heifer slaughter up 8.5 percent while steer slaughter is down about 0.6 percent.

The delayed February cattle on feed report will be released on March 8. Several confounding factors will affect that report including bad weather in feeding country and rising fed cattle prices.
 
Cattle Inventory This Week
The Cattle inventory report will be released Thursday February 28th. I expect it will show a small increase in beef cow numbers. We are likely about to the end of the growth part of the cattle cycle, as heifers on feed in the cattle on feed report, and cow and heifer slaughter data indicate. There are several other numbers in the report worth looking at beyond the headline all cattle and calves number. Watch for the number of heifers held back for replacement. That should show another decline as the cycle peaks out. Also watch for the calf crop estimate, in particular for revisions to past years data based on placement patterns. The number of cattle on small grains pasture will be interesting also gauging supplies of feeder cattle to come from wheat pasture country.



CropLife America Applauds Leadership on PRIA Passage

CropLife America (CLA) praised leaders of the 116th Congress for passing a long-term Pesticide Registration Improvement Act (PRIA) reauthorization that will strengthen and improve pesticide registration through 2023. House and Senate leadership, congressional appropriators and authorizing committees (House and Senate Ag, and House Energy and Commerce) have worked diligently over the past two years to preserve the benefits and process improvements first realized with PRIA’s original enactment in 2004.

“PRIA represents a collaborative effort between a diverse group of organizations ranging from agriculture, commercial pesticide users, state and federal regulators, and environmental advocacy groups,” said Chris Novak, CLA president and CEO. “This law provides certainty for consumers, farmers and our members, ensuring pesticides are reviewed and re-reviewed in a thorough and timely manner.”

“I especially appreciate the tireless efforts of Pat Roberts, Debbie Stabenow, Collin Peterson, Mike Conaway and Rodney Davis who all made significant contributions to seeing this important PRIA reauthorization through,” stated Beau Greenwood, CLA executive vice president, government relations and public affairs.

The original intent of PRIA was to establish a more predictable and effective registration and evaluation process for pesticide decisions. The law couples the collection of fees with specific decision review periods. This reauthorization includes technical changes and extends authority for the Environmental Protection Agency to collect updated pesticide registration and maintenance fees through 2023.



Mexico Nearly Doubles Export Commitments of U.S. Soybeans
US Soybean Export Council

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first tranche of weekly Foreign Ag Service (FAS) export data in six weeks on January 31st. The data for the week ending December 20thshowed that Mexico had purchased about 167,000 tonnes of U.S soybeans while exports made shipments totaling 103,000 tonnes over the same week. This latest update brings current outstanding sales for the 2018/19 marketing year to 2.365 million tonnes versus just 881,000 tonnes during the same week in 2017. Not only have unshipped sales blown past last year’s totals for late-December, accumulated exports for the 2018/19 marketing year of 1.546 million tonnes are well ahead of 1.222 million tonnes the same week in 2017.

While much of the market’s attention has been focused on ongoing trade discussions with China, Japan, and the European Union, the U.S. soybean market appears to be benefiting from the fruits of the recently formed U.S. Mexico – Canada –Agreement (USMCA) that has been agreed to by leaders of the three North American countries. By maintaining favorable relations with our neighbor to the south, U.S. soybeans will continue to feed the expanding protein needs of Mexican livestock producers.



The Andersons Declares Cash Dividend

The Andersons, Inc. announced a second quarter 2019 cash dividend of 17 cents ($0.17) per share payable on April 22, 2019, to shareholders of record as of April 1, 2019.

This is The Andersons' 90th consecutive quarterly cash dividend since listing on the Nasdaq on February 20, 1996. There are approximately 32.5 million common shares outstanding.

Founded in 1947 in Maumee, Ohio, The Andersons, Inc. is a diversified company rooted in agriculture. The company conducts business from more than 130 locations in the commodity trading, ethanol, plant nutrient and rail sectors. Guided by its Statement of Principles, The Andersons strives to provide extraordinary service to its customers, help its employees improve, support its communities and increase the value of the company.



Ag associations consolidate, focus on growing identity-preserved industry

The Midwest Shippers Association (MSA) and the Northern Food Grade Soybean Association (NFGSA) have consolidated to form the Specialty Soya and Grains Alliance (SSGA), effective immediately.

“Selling ag commodities globally continues to be increasingly more difficult,” said Tom Slunecka, chief executive officer for Ag Management Solutions (AMS), which will handle management of SSGA. “It’s important to have a strong, focused organization that has the resources necessary to compete with other global entities. The consolidation of NFGSA and MSA will position SSGA as the market leader in the global food industry.”

SSGA represents producers, processors, shippers and industry members of identity-preserved (IP) soybeans and specialty grains from coast-to-coast. SSGA’s board will be comprised of directors from the two former boards; its members include specialty grains and IP soybean producers, processors, genetic/seed providers, export traders, international export companies and qualified state soybean boards (QSSBs).

“One of the most vital pieces of selling specialty soya and grains is to have a strong and flexible transportation system,” said SSGA board member Andy Bensend, a Wisconsin farmer who formerly served as MSA chair. “We’re excited for our SSGA members coast-to-coast. This consolidation will allow us to provide the production, processing and shipping resources our members need while maximizing the efficiencies of our two boards.”

Bob Sinner, NFGSA vice-chairman prior to consolidation, says the time was right for the two organizations to join.

“In order for farmers to have successful options to grow and sell value-added crops, it’s vital that this new organization be focused on helping our members both expand and find new markets while at the same time assisting our customers’ ability to access our products more efficiently,” said Sinner, president of North Dakota-based SB&B Foods, Inc. “SSGA is committed to providing the resources necessary for our members to thrive, and for our customers to easily find those high-quality products.”

SSGA received a $1.5 million Agricultural Trade Promotion grant from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to begin operations. This one-time opportunity was created as part of the larger Trade Mitigation Program, which President Donald Trump and USDA crafted to help farmers hurt by the trade war with China.

“Aided by the grant from USDA, SSGA will begin the process of creating a new electronic marketplace that will communicate to buyers around the globe in ways that have never been done before,” Slunecka said.



Farm Dog, John Deere, and ADAMA Unveil Mobile-to-Sprayer Integration Solution

Farm Dog, John Deere, and ADAMA recently previewed their mobile-to-sprayer integrated solution to 750 agriculture professionals at the 2019 Develop with Deere Conference in Chicago from January 23-24.  The solution increases labor efficiency on the farm by simplifying information sharing and reducing the likelihood of operational errors for agronomists, growers, and spray equipment operators.

"We are spending unnecessary time on communication hand-offs between agronomic decision-makers and equipment operators – too many calls, faxes, emails, and texts.  In addition to labor waste, we estimate that miscommunication occurs in up to one-third of these hand-offs due to everyday occurrences such as spotty phone signals, illegible handwriting, and stubby fingers.  It's the agricultural equivalent of a frustrating game of Telephone," said Liron Brish, CEO of Farm Dog.

The solution seamlessly integrates two key activities in precision agriculture for pest and disease management – treatment recommendation based on in-field observations and variable rate spray application.  Growers and agronomists will now be able to create treatment recommendations within the Farm Dog mobile application and send them directly from the field to variable rate spray equipment via John Deere Operations Center, without risk of miscommunication of key information.  Artificial intelligence empowers users with insights into treatment history, local regulations, crop specifics, and other key agronomic inputs.

Added Brish: "This integration removes communication hand-off costs and risk, ensuring that everybody responsible for keeping fields healthy is aligned in real-time."

The joint collaboration project between Farm Dog, John Deere, and ADAMA is supported by the Binational Industrial Research and Development Foundation (BIRD Foundation).



Corteva Teams with DroneDeploy to bring Real-Time Drone Mapping to its Leading UAV Fleet

 Corteva Agriscience, Agriculture Division of DowDuPont, announced today a global agreement with DroneDeploy to use DroneDeploy in its fleet of more than 400 DJI drones across the Company’s global Seed Production and Supply Chain, as well as its Pioneer Strategic Account Management and Agronomy teams in the U.S., Canada, Brazil and Europe. DroneDeploy is the market leader in commercial drone software and aerial site intelligence for the construction and agriculture sectors.

“This agreement fortifies Corteva Agriscience as a leader in the use of advanced UAV technology,” said Jeremy Groeteke, Corteva Agriscience U.S. Digital Agriculture Lead. “The field intelligence technology will enable our Pioneer agronomy and strategic account management teams to work with farmers to provide real-time aerial views of their operation.”

The advanced mapping software from DroneDeploy combined with the expertise of Corteva Agriscience field teams offers immediate insights to diagnose and correct agronomic, disease or pest concerns, as well as to optimally place products. UAV operators can survey a 160-acre field in less than 15 minutes, quickly spotting variations in plant and soil health. Every operator will be trained on how best to harness the power of the aerial technology and will be certified according to local aviation regulations.

“We are also deploying the advanced UAV technology in our seed production network,” said Matt Kurtz, Corteva Agriscience Global Seed Technology Lead – Seed Production and Supply Chain. “We are aggressively evaluating and implementing decision agronomy tools like DroneDeploy to enable our agronomists and contract seed growers to make timely decisions impacting seed yields and quality.”

“Based on our market leader position, we are aware that Corteva Agriscience operates the largest agricultural drone fleet in the world,” said Mike Winn, DroneDeploy CEO and co-founder. “Corteva Agriscience is now deploying the most advanced crop scouting technology on drones using DroneDeploy’s Live Map technology to deliver real-time crop insights and enabling immediate actions by their agronomists in the field.”

“This is an exciting time in the ag industry and the move will certainly strengthen and differentiate Corteva Agriscience from competitors,” Groeteke said. “When you couple this drone investment with our other digital offerings provided by Granular Ag and Encirca® services, we will provide growers with even more data so they can make timely, informed agronomic decisions.”