Weekend Ag News Roundup Sept 13

 LENRD continues to budget conservatively by using less than ½ of tax levy

The fiscal year 2021 budget for the Lower Elkhorn Natural Resources District (LENRD) reflects projects and programs that will protect our future while fully leveraging local taxpayer dollars as efficiently as possible.

LENRD General Manger, Mike Sousek, said, “We continue to maximize the use of our local funds by bringing in grants for our projects and saving the taxpayers millions of dollars.  The total operating budget is estimated at $13 million, with only $4.5 million in revenue from the property tax levy.”

Sousek continued, “The citizens of this district receive almost a 75% return on their investment.  We’re working for you, our local taxpayers, to keep the levy low as we’re currently using less than ½ of our taxing authority.”

The operating budget was approved by the LENRD board of directors at their September 10th meeting with a tax request of $4,512,659.  The estimated levy, based on the property tax request, is 2.436 cents per $100 of valuation, which is a slight increase from the fiscal year 2020 levy of 2.370 cents per $100 of valuation.  For example, if a person owns a $300,000 house, the taxes owed to the LENRD would have been $71.10 in 2020 and will be approximately $73.10 in 2021.

Some of the major expenditures for FY 2021 are:  Levee and Flood Protection Projects - $1,903,150 which includes the City of West Point’s Flood Control Levee, the City of Randolph’s Flood Risk Management Project, and the Elkhorn River Jetty Project near Scribner;  Water Resources Programs - $543,025; Project Construction, including flood related repairs - $1,310,250; and Conservation Cost-Share programs, including the Bazile Groundwater Management Area Project and Willow Creek Best Management Practices - $550,000.

The LENRD received Watershed Flood Prevention and Operations (WFPO) funding from the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) to complete the Maple Creek Watershed Plan to evaluate potential flood prevention, watershed protection, and agricultural water management projects.  Four communities are located within the watershed:  Leigh, Clarkson, Howells, and Nickerson.  The LENRD is also moving ahead with the Battle Creek Watershed Improvement Project Work Plan – Environmental Assessment (Plan-EA) to address flood reduction in Madison County.

The LENRD received a grant from the Nebraska Environmental Trust (NET) to expand groundwater monitoring in Pierce County.  Maintaining a safe drinking water source is one of the most important priorities of the LENRD.  The Bazile Groundwater Management Area (BGMA) also received a grant from NET for year 2 of their demonstration sites for the groundwater nitrate reduction project.  This project is a vital step forward in stabilizing, and eventually reducing, nitrate levels within the BGMA.

Sousek added, “Through these projects and studies, we’re proud to give the funds back to the local taxpayers.  We’re working very diligently to be responsible with our budget as we continue to meet the challenges of protecting our natural resources for the future.”

The LENRD provides conservation benefits across all or parts of 15-counties in northeast Nebraska, including:  water quality and quantity programs such as groundwater management, flood control, and nitrate management; as well as erosion control, cost-share to landowners who apply for conservation practices, recreation areas and trails, urban recreation and community forestry programs, and many other benefits that protect our natural resources.



Papio-Missouri River NRD Board Approves Proposed 2021 Budget Decrease in Property Tax Levy  

At its September 10th meeting, the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District Board of Directors voted to approve the Fiscal Year 2021 general operating budget that includes a decrease in the Papio NRD property tax levy.

“It is our civic duty to save taxpayer dollars and we are proud the District’s property tax levy will decrease again this year,” said John Winkler, general manager of the Papio NRD. “For 15 out of 16 years, the District has either decreased or kept the tax levy the same,” said Winkler.

The FY21 budget calls for a property tax levy of .036490 per $100 of assessed valuation, which means a homeowner with property valued at $100,000 would pay a total of $36.49 or 3.04 cents a month in property taxes next year to support Papio NRD projects. The budget calls for an estimated $27 million in revenue from the NRD’s property tax levy. The total operating budget is estimated at $75.5 million.  

The Papio-Missouri River NRD’s property tax levy amounts to less than two percent of a homeowner’s total property tax bill who lives within the District’s six-county area. The levy is based on an estimated 7.06% increase in valuations across the district, which includes all of Sarpy, Douglas, Washington and Dakota counties, plus the eastern 60% of Burt and Thurston counties.   



 Northeast Community College accepts $500,000 donation for new ag facilities from TC Energy

Northeast Community College is thrilled to announce that TC Energy and the TC Energy Foundation have donated $500,000 to its Nexus campaign to support the construction of new agriculture facilities at the College. The donation will further enable students to take courses in areas of crop production, livestock, crop science, entomology, forages, chemicals, marketing, sales and a number of other fields to form a strong foundation in the agriculture field.

The donation was presented by Trevor Jones, government and community relations advisor for TC Energy, during groundbreaking ceremonies for the Nexus project held Thursday, Sept. 10.

In his remarks Thursday, Jones said, “Projects like this underscore not only the importance, but the vitality of community colleges in Nebraska and the vital role they play in building a skilled and highly trained workforce needed to ensure a strong future for all Nebraskans, including those who have yet to start kindergarten or have taken an SAT.”

“Northeast Community College and this Nexus project are helping to develop the next generation of workers,” Jones continued, “giving them the skills and the training needed to build strong and sustainable local economies throughout Nebraska and rural America.”

A video of the ceremony as well as other video comments may be found at the website agwaternexus.com.

“TC Energy’s motto is to build stronger, more vibrant communities through their giving,” said Dr. Tracy Kruse, associate vice president of development and external affairs and executive director of the Northeast Foundation. “They have clearly demonstrated their commitment to our local communities, our workforce, and to the success of the entire agriculture industry through their generosity to this project. We couldn’t be more appreciative of their support and partnership.”

Northeast Community College has been ranked as one of the top agricultural two-year colleges in the country and its ag program allows students to explore innovative, hands-on experiential learning opportunities related to crop and livestock as well as improved conservation practices. TC Energy’s donation to Northeast supports the College’s Nexus campaign to move the institution’s farm and feedlot from its current site, which isn’t conducive to low stress animal handling, feedlot drainage or machinery storage and maintenance, to a location near the Chuck M. Pohlman Ag Complex which Northeast opened in 2004.

The campaign’s goal is to help create a sustainable future based on student, business, and community success. The Nexus campaign integrates innovation, applied research, and hands-on experience to grow the rural economy, address food and water security concerns and protect Nebraska’s resources for future generations.

"TC Energy has a long history of supporting educational initiatives, and this partnership allows us to further this commitment while directly supporting communities along our Keystone XL project route,” said Scott Castleman, director, public affairs and communications for Keystone XL. “Partnering with Northeast Community College will not only support the college in offering top-level facilities, but more importantly it will help develop the next generation of Nebraska farmers. One of the many benefits of this partnership is the positive affect among communities across the Keystone and Keystone XL routes, which TC Energy owns and operates.”

Nine out of 10 graduates of Northeast’s ag program stay in Nebraska. The program provides stable employment opportunities for its graduates, primarily in the 20-county service area outside of Norfolk. Fifty percent of jobs in northeast Nebraska are related to agriculture, and the industry is growing. Therefore, these graduates are helping to meet a key workforce demand for the state.

Site work for the Nexus project began in April and construction should be completed by Fall 2021. The initial phase of construction includes a new veterinary technology clinic and classrooms, a new farm site with a large animal handling facility, feedlot and other farm structures for livestock operations, a farm office and storage.

Funding for the agriculture facilities will come from the College’s commitment of $10 million, as well as external fundraising to fill the gap. With a total project cost of $22.3 million, Northeast has raised enough funds to begin construction; however, fundraising for the Nexus campaign will continue, as more is needed for equipment, technology and furnishings.

In August 2019, the Acklie Charitable Foundation (ACF) announced a $5 million lead gift to the Nexus project. ACF was founded by the late Duane Acklie and Phyllis Acklie, both Madison County natives and graduates of Norfolk Junior College, a predecessor institution of Northeast Community College.

For more information on the Nexus Campaign, contact Kruse at tracyk@northeast.edu, or call (402) 844-7056. Online donations may be made through agwaternexus.com.



2021 NeCGA Washington D.C. Leadership Mission - Applications Now Open

Applications for the 2021 Washington, D.C. Leadership Mission are now open. Each year the Nebraska Corn Growers Association takes a group of new leaders to Washington, D.C. to learn more about grassroots and what the Association does. This mission trip includes visits with each of Nebraska's elected officials, industry partners such as NCGA and U.S. Grains Council, grassroots leadership training and other agribusinesses. This mission trip is at no cost to members of the Nebraska Corn Growers Association. The dates for the 2021 Washington, D.C. Leadership Mission is February 22-26, 2021. If something changes and we are not able to make the mission trip this year, we will send out an announcement. For an application, please click HERE... https://files.constantcontact.com/45f644ba101/9ab0634e-7b84-4f83-963f-8b870110752a.pdf. If you have any questions about the program, please reach out to Morgan Wrich, NeCGA Director of Grower Services.



Nebraska Corn Internships

Nebraska Corn is starting the process of recruiting for our next class of interns! This is a great opportunity for college students to get real-world experiences. These internships work directly with Nebraska Corn cooperating organizations including the U.S. Grains Council, the U.S. Meat Export Federation and the National Corn Growers Association.

Six of the internships are located outside the state and two are located in the offices of the Nebraska Corn Board and the Nebraska Corn Growers Association in Lincoln. All eight opportunities are paid experiences. Applications are due November 6, 2020.

More Information here.... https://necga.org/nebraska-corn-internships/.  



Corn Field Tour from Gothenburg Water Utilization Learning Center

Agriculture continues to evolve even as the country has slowed down because of the coronavirus. Bayer Crop Science would like to invite you to join a Virtual Field Tour of the Gothenburg Water Utilization Learning Center to learn more about some of the exciting research the company is working on to move corn production forward.
 
Below is an outline of this one hour and 15 minute event. The focus is to provide an overview of the research the Learning Center is conducting on the challenges of corn production in the Kansas, Colorado, and Nebraska Great Plains region and how the products from Bayer can provide value to farmers in this region.
 
Virtual Field Tour | Thursday – September 17 from 2:00 to 3:15 p.m. CT
    Overview of the Learning Center
    Maximizing water efficiency
    Corn product testing under variable rate irrigation
    Production problems on the Great Plains
    What types of testing is Bayer doing to address these issues?
    Pest control – from weeds to insects to diseases, learn more about our testing efforts
    Where does short corn fit?
    Discuss what it is and how it could work in this region
    Food grade corn
    What is it, how is the testing done, and how is it used to produce commercial products?
    How can tools like Climate FieldView be impactful?
    Questions

To register for this event, please contact Brain Olson (brian.olson@bayer.com) or Rachel Hurley (rachel.hurley@bayer.com) by September 8 and they will send you login information for the event.



USDA Assists Rural NE Businesses Create Jobs and Increase Economic Opportunities

Nebraska State Director Karl Elmshaeuser for USDA Rural Development today announced that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is investing $231,000 to assist rural businesses with job creation that will enhance economic opportunities.

“The grants will help to strengthen small emerging rural businesses through working capital that will assist rural communities and build on economic opportunities,” said Elmshaeuser. “Under the leadership of President Trump and Agriculture Secretary Perdue, USDA has been working tirelessly to be a strong partner to rural Nebraska in building stronger and healthier communities, because we know when rural America thrives, all of America thrives.”

Nebraska’s recipients are:
Center for Rural Affairs - $57,050-Provide training and technical assistance in Lexington, Madison, West Point, and Nebraska City all in Nebraska for small and emerging food businesses to assist Latinos develop or start new business enterprises in their community.  Workshops and trainings will be facilitated in both English and Spanish to ensure access to the information is available to the target audience.  Participants will receive training in completing a business plan and training in basic finance and business operation. Participants who complete the training should have a complete business plan and a roadmap to move forward with their new business enterprise. This project is expected to assist at least six businesses, which will create 25 full-time equivalent jobs.

GROW Nebraska Foundation - $80,425-Assist small and emerging rural businesses to increase marketing their businesses via eCommerce.  Social media training will be provided face-to-face and via webinars in the communities of Alliance, McCook and Sidney in Nebraska.  This project is expected to assist at least three businesses, which will save 13 full-time equivalent jobs.

Hay Springs Area Chamber of Commerce - $93,525-Purchase the former grocery store building on Main Street in Hay Springs, Nebraska. The building will be updated (paint, floors) and then rented to a new and emerging business, creating potential full-time and part-time jobs. Coaching by community members will be provided in the following areas: inventory management, personnel management, advertising, marketing, branding, financial reporting and banking.

The  funding was awarded through the Rural Business Development Grant (RBDG) program to assist small and emerging rural businesses with targeted technical assistance, training and training facilities, including commercial kitchens, business incubators, makerspaces and farmers’ markets.

USDA Rural Development provides loans and grants to help expand economic opportunities and create jobs in rural areas. This assistance supports infrastructure improvements; business development; housing; community facilities such as schools, public safety and health care; and high-speed internet access in rural areas.

For more information regarding the RBDG program contact Brant Richardson, brant.richardson@usda.gov or 402-437-5568, Deborah Drbal, deborah.drbal@usda.gov or 402-437-5558.  Visit www.rd.usda.gov/ne.



Iowa Program to Help Fuel Retailers Recover from COVID-19-Related Demand Disruptions

Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig introduced the Renewable Fuel Retailer Recovery Program today to help gas stations, truck stops and other fuel retailers recover from lost demand caused by COVID-19. Iowa fuel retailers that dispense, or have plans to dispense, ethanol blends of E15 or higher or biodiesel blends of B11 or higher, and biodiesel terminal facilities are eligible to apply for the relief funds. Gov. Reynolds has allocated $7 million of CARES Act money to support the Renewable Fuel Retailer Recovery Program.

As Americans began spending more time at home to prevent the spread of COVID-19, fuel demands dropped drastically. As a result, more than 70 ethanol plants across the country idled and 70 more cut production capacity, jeopardizing jobs in rural communities and further reducing commodity prices. As of April 10, national ethanol production had dropped 44 percent compared to the same time in 2019, according to a report by the Renewable Fuels Association.

“Iowa is at the foundation of our global food supply chain and the epicenter of the renewable fuels industry,” said Gov. Reynolds. “COVID-19 and a devastating derecho dealt a major blow to everything from the demand for ethanol to the supply of meat on grocery store shelves. But just as important are the livelihoods of thousands of Iowa farm families, agricultural industries and the communities they support. Today’s investment reflects the critical role Iowa’s ag industry has in our state's overall economic recovery.”

“The renewable fuels industry is critical to Iowa’s economy. It provides jobs in rural communities, additional markets for agricultural products, and gives consumers greater access to affordable, cleaner-burning fuels,” said Secretary Naig. “I know fuel retailers and the renewable fuels industry, like so many others, have a long road to recovery. I’m grateful to Gov. Reynolds for making additional funding available to support ethanol and biodiesel retailers as they work to recover from this pandemic.”

To qualify, applicants must demonstrate a COVID-19-related business interruption or a loss of business income related to COVID-19. Projects considered may include, but are not limited to, expenses incurred for the construction, installation, upgrade and retrofit of equipment associated with the sale of renewable fuels. Replacement equipment must dispense a higher percentage blend of ethanol or biodiesel than the existing equipment, for example, dispense E15 instead of E10.

Retailers may be awarded up to a $30,000 grant per project and may submit applications for more than one project. Application forms can be downloaded at iowaagriculture.gov/grants. Applications should be submitted electronically to paul.ovrom@iowaagriculture.gov. The Department will begin reviewing applications on Monday, Sept. 14, 2020. Additional project applications will be accepted as long as funds remain.

Questions about the program should be directed to Paul Ovrom, the program administrator, at 515-242-6239 or paul.ovrom@iowaagriculture.gov.

Iowa leads the nation in renewable fuels production. The state is home to 43 ethanol refineries capable of producing over 4.5 billion gallons annually and 12 biodiesel facilities with the capacity to produce nearly 400 million gallons annually, according to the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association.  



Virtual Organic Field Day Video Available Online

A virtual Organic Field Day video from Iowa State University Extension and Outreach is available online.  The video was recorded at the Iowa State University Neely-Kinyon Memorial Research and Demonstration Farm and is available for viewing on YouTube.  The field day covers the variety of organic research at the Neely-Kinyon Farm, including organic corn, soybeans, oats, alfalfa, peppers, winter squash and grapes.

“This was a very difficult summer,” said Kathleen Delate, professor and extension organic specialist in the departments of agronomy and horticulture at Iowa State University. “Between COVID-19, drought and the derecho, farmers were put through extraordinary pressures this year.”

The Neely-Kinyon Farm was spared the worst of the derecho winds, which flattened corn fields a mere 30 miles north. Organic farmers who were affected by the derecho’s 100 mph winds reported that, with organic corn’s later planting to avoid pollen from nearby conventional GMO corn, the less mature stage of the organic corn may have helped its survival.

With ears still filling, it’s likely the weight of the organic corn was less than the more mature, conventional corn that was downed by the storm. Affected organic farmers expect to be able to harvest their lodged corn with special combine attachments, such as a crop lifter.

Fortunately, timely rains at the beginning of the season have led to excellent productivity and the hope for optimal corn and soybean yields in the Long-Term Agroecological Research experiment at the farm.

The drought conditions have favored some crops, as excessive rains typically can increase disease and decrease oat yields, but this year, when LTAR oats were harvested on July 31, the oats in the four-year rotation (corn–soybean–oats/alfalfa–alfalfa) averaged 106 bushels per acre. Organic farmer Ron Rosmann of Harlan, Iowa, featured in the field day, produced oat crops that yielded 131 bushels per acre. The Rosmanns have weathered the pandemic with a combination of an on-farm store, wholesale and retail sales.

The organic no-till section of the virtual field day demonstrates the use of winter rye and hairy vetch that were planted as a cover crop in Fall 2019, and rolled/crimped with a Rodale roller at the end of May.

Organic peppers and squash were transplanted into the rolled mulch on June 4. Organic no-till offers many benefits in terms of soil quality, with USDA-ARS-NLAE scientists showing greater stored carbon and beneficial soil microbial populations that assist with nutrient cycling.

Producers may consider donating excess vegetables to food banks this year, as many are experiencing record need due to COVID-19.

Organic research results and other timely information will be presented at the virtual Iowa Organic Conference in November. For more information, contact Kathleen Delate with ISU Extension and Outreach at 515-294-7069, or kdelate@iastate.edu.



NEBRASKA CROP PRODUCTION REPORT

Based on September 1 conditions, Nebraska's 2020 corn crop is forecast at 1.78 billion bushels, down slightly from last year's production, according to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. Area harvested for grain, at 9.45 million acres, is down 4% from a year ago. Average yield is forecast at 188 bushels per acre, up 6 bushels from last year.

Soybean production is forecast at 297 million bushels, up 5% from last year. Area for harvest, at 4.95 million acres, is up 2% from 2019. Yield is forecast at 60 bushels per acre, up 1.5 bushels from a year ago.

Sorghum for grain production of 11.2 million bushels is down 8% from a year ago. Area for harvest, at 120,000 acres, is down 8% from 2019. Yield is forecast at 93 bushels per acre, unchanged from last year.

Sugarbeet production is forecast at 1.40 million tons, up 31% from 2019. Area for harvest, at 45,800 acres, is up 9% from last year. Yield is forecast at 30.6 tons per acre, up 5.2 tons from a year ago.

Dry edible pea production is forecast at 680 thousand cwt, up 2% from a year ago. Area for harvest, at 34,000 acres, is up 17% from 2019. Yield is forecast at 2,000 pounds per acre, down 300 pounds from last year.

The forecasts in this report are based on conditions as of September 1. Any potential impacts from the below freezing temperatures that occurred after September 1 will be reflected in future reports.



IOWA CROP PRODUCTION REPORT

Iowa corn production is forecast at 2.48 billion bushels according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Crop Production report. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 191 bushels per acre, down 11 bushels per acre from the August 1 forecast, and down 7 bushels per acre from last year. Corn planted acreage is estimated at 14.0 million acres. An estimated 13.0 million of the acres planted will be harvested for grain, down 550,000 acres from the previous forecast.

Soybean production is forecast at 503 million bushels. The yield is forecast at 54.0 bushels per acre, down 4.0 bushels per acre from the August 1 forecast, and 1.0 bushel per acre lower than 2019. Soybean planted acreage is estimated at 9.40 million acres with 9.32 million acres to be harvested.
In response to the derecho experienced on August 10, NASS collected harvested acreage information for corn and soybeans in Iowa. Based on this additional data, NASS lowered corn harvested for grain area by 550,000 acres. Soybean acres were unchanged. Since many producers indicated they were still finalizing decisions regarding some of the impacted acres, NASS will collect harvested acreage for corn and soybeans in Iowa for the October Crop Production report.

The forecasts in this report are based on September 1 conditions and do not reflect weather effects since that time. The next corn and soybean production forecasts, based on conditions as of October 1, will be released on October 9.



USDA: Corn Production Down 2 Percent from August Forecast
Soybean Production Down 3 Percent

Corn production for grain is forecast at 14.9 billion bushels, down 2 percent from the previous forecast but up 9 percent from 2019. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average a record high 178.5 bushels per harvested acre, down 3.3 bushels from the previous forecast but up 11.1 bushels from last year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.5 million acres, down 1 percent from the previous forecast, but up 3 percent from the previous year.

Soybean production for beans is forecast at 4.31 billion bushels, down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up 21 percent from last year. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average a record high 51.9 bushels per harvested acre, down 1.4 bushels from the previous forecast but up 4.5 bushels from 2019. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 83.0 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 11 percent from 2019.



World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate - Sept 11, 2020

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced production, lower corn used for ethanol, larger exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.9 billion bushels, down 378 million from last month on a lower yield forecast and reduction in harvested area. Corn supplies are reduced from last month, as a smaller crop more than offsets greater beginning stocks mostly due to lower estimated exports for 2019/20. Corn used for ethanol for 2020/21 is lowered 100 million bushels based on the continued slow recovery in motor gasoline demand as a result of COVID-19. Exports are raised 100 million bushels reflecting reduced supplies in competitor countries. With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks are lowered 253 million bushels from last month. The corn price is raised 40 cents to $3.50 per bushel.  

This month’s 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, with fractionally higher trade and lower stocks relative to last month. EU corn production is lowered, mostly reflecting a reduction for Romania. Ukraine corn production is down, as acute short-term drought across much of the primary growing areas lowered corn yield prospects after a favorable start to the summer growing season. Corn production is raised for Brazil, as high domestic prices are expected to support an expansion in area. Corn production is also increased for India and Nigeria. Barley production is raised for Russia, the EU, and Australia.

Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2020/21 include barley export increases for Russia and Australia. Corn exports are raised for the United States, Brazil, and Mexico. Corn imports are raised for Venezuela. China’s corn feed and residual use for 2019/20 and 2020/21 is raised from last month, based on observed soybean meal equivalent protein consumption and current corn prices. Foreign corn ending stocks are lower relative to last month, as increases for India and Nigeria are more than offset by a decline for China.

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2020/21 include lower beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect increases in exports and crush for 2019/20. Soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, down 112 million on a lower yield forecast of 51.9 bushels per acre. Yield is down 1.4 bushels per acre from the August forecast. With soybean crush and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 460 million bushels, down 150 million from last month. Other changes this month include higher peanut and lower cottonseed production.

Soybean and product prices are all projected higher for 2020/21. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $9.25 per bushel, up 90 cents from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $315 per short ton, up 25 dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is 32.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents.  The 2020/21 foreign oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, exports, and ending stocks. Higher foreign production of soybeans, cottonseed, peanuts, and rapeseed is partly offset by lower sunflowerseed. Soybean production is raised for Brazil, Canada, and India, and lowered for Ukraine. Brazil’s 2020/21 soybean crop is raised 2 million tons to 133 million, mainly on increased area as producers face stronger prices and competitive exchange rates ahead of planting. Brazil’s production for 2013/14 to 2018/19 also reflects revisions by Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB). Soybean production forecasts for Canada and India are raised on recent government data and planting progress reports. Ukraine’s soybean production is lowered due to low rainfall throughout August.

Global soybean exports are raised 0.9 million tons to 166.3 million, with higher exports for Brazil and lower exports for Ukraine based on available supplies. Crush is reduced for Argentina in line with the prior year’s reduction. Global ending stocks are reduced 1.8 million tons to 93.6 million as lower U.S. stocks are partly offset by higher foreign stocks, particularly for Argentina and Brazil.

WHEAT: The 2020/21 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is unchanged this month but there are offsetting by-class changes for wheat exports. The projected season-average farm price remains at $4.50 per bushel.

The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, greater exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are raised 3.3 million tons to 1,070.3 million, mostly on higher production in Australia and Canada more than offsetting a smaller crop in Argentina. Australia’s production is raised 2.5 million tons to 28.5 million, mainly based on the ABARES production forecast issued September 7. Canada’s production is increased 2.0 million tons to 36.0 million, primarily on the Statistics Canada forecast issued August 31. This is the second and third-highest wheat production on record for Canada and Australia, respectively. Argentina’s production is lowered 1.0 million tons to 19.5 million on continued dry conditions and possible frost damage. On net, global 2020/21 production is raised 4.5 million tons to a record high 770.5 million.

World consumption is increased 0.8 million tons to 750.9 million, primarily on higher feed and residual usage for Australia and Canada. Projected 2020/21 global trade is raised 1.5 million tons to 189.4 million on higher exports for Australia and Canada. The largest import change this month is for China, where imports are raised 1.0 million tons to 7.0 million on an early strong pace of U.S. sales and shipments to China and increased exportable supplies from Australia and Canada. If realized, these would be the largest China wheat imports since 1995/96. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are increased 2.6 million tons to 319.4 million to a new record, with China and India accounting for 51 and 10 percent of the total, respectively.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2020 total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as lower pork and broiler production more than offsets higher beef and turkey production. Beef production is raised from the previous month on higher second-half cattle slaughter. The pork production forecast is reduced on the current pace of slaughter and lighter carcass weights. Broiler production is reduced on recent hatchery data while turkey production is raised slightly. The 2020 egg production forecast is raised on increased lay rates. For 2021, the total red meat and poultry forecast is reduced from the previous month on lower expected beef, pork, and broiler production. Beef production is reduced from last month on lower expected steer and heifer slaughter and lighter carcass weights. Pork production is reduced on lighter expected carcass weights. The broiler production forecast is reduced on slower expected growth as the industry adjusts to higher feed costs. The turkey production forecast is unchanged.

The 2020 beef import forecast is raised on continued firm import demand for processing grade beef, while the beef export forecast is unchanged. No change is made to the 2021 beef trade forecasts. The 2020 and 2021 pork export forecasts are unchanged as continued demand strength from China offsets weaker demand in other key markets. The 2020 and 2021 broiler, turkey, and egg export forecasts are unchanged from last month.

The cattle price forecast for 2020 is unchanged from last month while the 2021 cattle price forecast is raised on lower production. Hog price forecasts are raised for 2020 on recent price strength but are unchanged for 2021. The 2020 broiler, turkey, and egg price forecasts are raised on recent price strength. For 2021, broiler price forecasts are raised on lower forecast production while no changes are made to the turkey and egg price forecasts.

The milk production forecast for 2020 is raised from last month on higher expected growth in milk per cow. For 2020, the fat basis import forecast is lowered, primarily on recent trade data and the expectation of slower butterfat imports. The fat basis export forecast is raised on stronger global import demand for cheese, butter, and whey products. The skim-solids basis import forecast is unchanged from the previous month, while the export forecast is raised on expectations of robust exports of nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey products. Cheese, butter, and whey price forecasts are reduced from last month, but the forecast for NDM is unchanged. The Class III price forecast is reduced on lower cheese and whey price forecasts, while the Class IV price forecast is reduced on the lower butter price forecast. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $17.75 per cwt.

For 2021, the milk production forecast is raised on stronger anticipated growth in milk per cow. The fat basis import forecast is reduced from the previous month primarily on lower expected imports of cheese and other dairy products, while the fat basis export forecast is raised on anticipated firm global demand for U.S. butter. The skim-solids basis import forecast is raised slightly, but the export forecast is raised on continued strong international demand for skim milk powder and whey products. Price forecasts for cheese, butter, and whey are lowered while the nonfat dry milk forecast is unchanged. The Class III price forecast is reduced on lower cheese and whey price forecasts. The Class IV price forecast is reduced on the lower butter price forecast. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $17.00 per cwt for 2021.