Monday January 30 Ag News

Heifers on Feed Indicate Long-Term Liquidation Still Occurring 
Elliott Dennis - UNL Assistant Professor and Livestock Marketing Economist

Beef cow herd liquidation occurred in a significant way in 2022 due to a combination of strong lean beef demand, higher cull cow prices, and forage issues due to drought. Fewer cows results in fewer feeder cattle, tightening supplies for fed cattle, and ultimately lower beef production in 2023. The USDA-NASS Cattle Inventory report is released at the end of this January and analysts' estimates for beef cow reduction are in the 3-4% range. This will directly affect feeder cattle numbers in 2023.  

A herd of 100 cows with 90% breeding efficiency and non-sexed semen would be expected to have about 90 feeder cattle to sell (45 steers and 45 heifers). On average, cows stay in a herd for about five years so this herd would be expected to have sold 20 cows in 2022. To maintain long-term feeder cattle output, the herd must either retain or buy 20 heifers that will be bred in the coming year. Producers make tradeoffs between either selling or retaining more heifers. Selling more heifer calves today will lower future feeder cattle production but increase operational income today whereas retaining more heifers will decrease current income while increasing future feeder cattle production. Thus, feeder cattle production in 2023 is a result of both heifer retention and cull cow sale decisions during 2022. The USDA-NASS Cattle Inventory report released at the end of January will indicate how many heifers were held back in herds. This will primarily affect feeder cattle numbers in 2024. 

Each quarter, in addition to their monthly cattle on feed report, USDA-NASS releases the total number of cattle, steers, and heifers on feed for the US and 13 primary states. During periods of contraction, heifer placements into feedlots, as a percentage of total cattle on feed, is high and during periods of herd rebuilding, it is low. Currently, that percentage is 39.74% - the highest percentage since 2002. This is the first indicator that heifer replacements will decrease in 2023. 

Combining the historical quarterly percentage of heifers on feed and cattle inventory report can provide an indicator of how many heifers will be held back for replacement in the 2023 report. If the percentage of heifers on feed during 2022 is high, then we could expect a decrease in the number of heifers retained for breeding in 2023. This relationship and implies that the change in heifer retention could be approximately a 4-4.5% decrease in the January Cattle Inventory report. 

But what indicator is there that this trend of heifers on feed will continue in the future? Each week the USDA-AMS releases a summary report of all the feeder cattle that are sold by weight, sex, and marketing method. Using this we can see the trend of heifers weighing more than 600 lbs. that are sold throughout the US. After accounting for historical seasonal changes, the trend of increasing heifers as a percentage of cattle on feed should be slowing. This trend began to shift in the latter part of 2022. This provides some evidence that while heifers held back for replacement may be lower in the January 2023 Cattle Inventory report, herd rebuilding could begin to occur seriously during 2023. However, the true extent of the rebuilding likely depends on the weather, overall beef demand, and input costs. 

So what does the combined effect of accelerated beef cow harvest and reduced heifer replacement decisions mean for herd liquation and prices received? In short, the supply of feeder cattle should be less in 2023 compared to 2022. The CME futures seems to support this idea with Fall 2022 deferred contracts trading in the $200-210’s range. For places like Nebraska which generally has a +6.00 basis in the Fall for 700-900 lb. steers, expected cash prices are projected to be approximately $210-220. For context, 700-900 lb. steers sold between October-December in Nebraska averaged approximately $169 per cwt. in 2013, $240 per cwt. in 2014, $181 per cwt. in 2015, and $185 per cwt. in 2022. 



INVENTORING REMAINING FORAGE SUPPLY
– Todd Whitney, NE Extension Educator  

Ground Hog Day (Feb. 2) pegs the mid-point of winter; so now may be a good time to inventory your remaining hay and forage. Remember you can’t effectively manage; what you do not measure.

Do you have enough hay and forage to last the remainder of winter? Your final answer may depend on weather factors beyond your control such as heavy snow cover impacting pasture grazing? Will your pastures still need extra early season rest due to previous drought?

When making your feed management decisions, consider using ‘best case’ and ‘worst case’ scenarios.

Focus on completing a thorough inventory, account for all feed resources; even counting all bales available. Calculate remaining bunker silage. Also, estimate remaining forage grazing and assign economic values.

Compare what feed resources you have versus what your herd may need. For example, a 200 head lactating cow herd average cow size of 1,200 pounds will need about 3.2 tons of hay per day (not accounting for waste).

Focus on making the best use of your feed resources. Would it be financially beneficial to sell extra highest quality forage and feed the rest? If mild winter conditions continue, selling your higher value forage could generate more cashflow toward paying taxes and land payments. On the flip side, if your feed reserves are too low, will you need to cull your cow herd more and/or buy more forage.

If your cows are thin, consider the opposite; sell your lower quality forage and feed your higher quality.

Thin condition score cows need more protein and energy to keep from dropping body condition and maintaining their milk production.

If you need assistance managing your remaining feed resources and evaluating your hay and forage needs, Nebraska Extension educational resources are available online at: cropwatch.unl.edu and beef.unl.edu.  



Congressman Flood and House Republicans Slam Biden WOTUS Overreach

U.S. Congressman Mike Flood, along with more than 190 House Republicans, slammed President Biden’s final Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule which dramatically expands federal oversight of America’s waterways. For almost a decade now, regulatory uncertainty and litigation have surrounded the scope of federal authority over our nation’s waterways as the Obama Administration and now Biden Administration have repeatedly attempted to expand the federal government’s power.

“The American people deserve certainty and an assurance that existing rules and regulations will not fluctuate with the threat of criminal penalties and significant financial hardship for failing to abide by the ever-changing rules,” wrote the members of Congress in their letter to the Biden Administration. “This new WOTUS definition will only increase regulatory uncertainty and worsen conditions for farmers, ranchers, job creators, and landowners. Given this, we urge you to rescind the rule and postpone any subsequent agency action on WOTUS to allow the Supreme Court to issue an opinion on Sackett v EPA.”



Governor Pillen Signs Letter Condemning New WOTUS Rule

Today, Governor Jim Pillen joined two dozen governors from across the nation in defending water rights and access for farmers, ranchers, developers, businesses, and landowners. The governors are requesting that President Joe Biden delay the new rule defining the Waters of the United States (WOTUS), until the U.S. Supreme Court issues its decision. The ruling is expected this summer.

The new WOTUS rule would expand the definition of "navigable waters" to include ponds, certain streams, ditches, and other bodies of water under the Clean Water Act, as determined by the Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.  

“The revised rule creates greater government overreach, produces additional red tape, and leads to uncertainty for landowners and businesses,” said Governor Pillen. “This will have a negative economic impact at a time when our state is already dealing with increased costs, supply chain issues, and staffing shortages.”



NEBRASKA POULTRY AND EGG DEVELOPMENT, UTILIZATION AND MARKETING COMMITTEE NOTICE OF MEETING
 
The Nebraska Poultry and Egg Development, Utilization, and Marketing Committee has planned a meeting for Wednesday, March 15, 2023, at 10:00 AM at the River’s Edge Conference Center Ramada Inn - Columbus, Nebraska.

The current agenda of subjects to be discussed at this meeting is available for public inspection at the offices of the Nebraska Department of Agriculture, Poultry and Egg Division, 521 First Street, Milford, Nebraska.

This meeting will be held in conjunction with the Nebraska Poultry Industries Annual Conference.

Register For Conference Here... https://nebraskapoultryindustriescoadvancedassociationmanagement.growthzoneapp.com/ap/Events/Register/VLzo258r?mode=Attendee.  

Please contact the PED office at 402-761-2216 or alyssa@nepoultry.org if you have any questions.



NEBRASKA CROP PROGRESS AND CONDITION

For the week ending January 29, 2023, topsoil moisture supplies rated 18% very short, 37% short, 39% adequate, and 6% surplus, according to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. Subsoil moisture supplies rated 34% very short, 46% short, 20% adequate, and 0% surplus.

Field Crops Report:
Winter wheat condition rated 14% very poor, 26% poor, 38% fair, 20% good, and 2% excellent.

The next report will be issued February 27, 2023.



Iowa Forage and Grassland Council Conference Returns to Ames

The Iowa Forage and Grassland Council annual conference will return to Ames with a full day of information. Set for Feb. 28, the event will be held at Reiman Gardens, 1407 University Blvd., just to the southwest of Jack Trice Stadium.

Registration begins at 9:30 a.m. with a welcome and introductions at 10 a.m. Two presentations are on tap for the morning session, and lunch at noon is followed by the IFGC annual meeting. There are two afternoon sessions beginning at 1:15 p.m. and closing remarks at 3:15 p.m. The program concludes at 3:30 p.m. To register, visit https://agribiz.swoogo.com/2023ifgc.

Conference topics and speakers:
    “Swath Grazing – A Winter Feeding Strategy,” Garland Dahlke, research scientist with the Iowa Beef Center at Iowa State University.
    "The Compound Effects of Livestock on Soil Health," Kayla Creek, livestock specialist with Iowa NRCS; Stacy Prassas, grassland specialist with Iowa NRCS; Hillary Olson, state soil health specialist with Iowa NRCS.
    "Climate Challenges for Agriculture over the Next Three Decades," Gene Takle, emeritus distinguished professor in agronomy at Iowa State.
    "Management of New Weed Threats in Iowa Forages," Bob Hartzler, retired extension weed specialist and emeritus professor of agronomy at Iowa State.

The conference is open to the public for $45. IFGC members pay $30 and those who have not yet paid dues can do so during the online registration process. All attendees will be able to explore the exhibits that are open at Reiman Gardens, including the popular Butterfly Wing, during the day.

See the agenda, registration form and map to Reiman Gardens on the conference website.



Building trust and demand for dairy in 2023

Programs from the Midwest Dairy Association are reaching more consumers than ever in the 10-state region with 39 million consumers. Already, the year is off to a running start with dairy products playing a key role in consumers’ resolutions for a healthier version of themselves.

“Our accomplishments and progress towards building trust and demand show the value of our checkoff at work,” said Molly Pelzer, Midwest Dairy CEO. “In 2023, we’ll build on our relationships with new and existing retail partners and continue to increase trust in dairy through nutrition and education.”

Since starting the three-year strategic plan in 2021, Midwest Dairy has worked towards the vision of bringing dairy to life for a better world and the mission of working with others to give consumers an excellent dairy experience. In 2023, Midwest Dairy will expand reach and increase impact of checkoff funds through partnerships, work in schools and industry innovation.

Better together
Collaboration is a key focus for all programs and activities to expand dairy’s footprint and consumer trust. Midwest Dairy is maximizing dairy farmers’ checkoff investment impact by working with and through partners to share information and real-time experiences that showcase how dairy products resonate with today’s consumers.
    A new partnership with Godfather’s Pizza Express has received great consumer engagement from the Five Cheese and Sausage Pizza limited time offer. Midwest Dairy is funding the point-of-sale materials used in the three-month-long program.
    Dairy continues to reach younger consumers through well-known social media influencers such as MrBeast, a gaming and YouTube icon, who shares insights and promotes dairy to his millions of followers.

Dairy in schools
Midwest Dairy continues to support dairy in schools based on research and a legacy of leadership in student health and wellness.
    Current work on business case studies will help school administrators grow meal participation with dairy based smoothies, coffee stations and breakfasts. Studies show an opportunity to increase the number of students choosing school meals when paired with a coffee beverage, which encourages students to consume milk who otherwise may not. These dairy-based programs generate excitement both for nutritious milk and the school meal program.
    A high school STEM pilot program gives dairy farmers an opportunity to shape the next generation and share science-based explanations. Students are learning how dairy is part of a healthy lifestyle, the scientific principles behind production decisions and get an inside look at related career opportunities.

Innovation for tomorrow
Midwest Dairy collaborates with processors, farmer-owned cooperatives, and dairy food and beverage manufacturers with the Cooperative and Processor Support (CAPS) program. Through this program, Midwest Dairy provides market research and consumer insights, ongoing communications resources and marketing assistance for new and innovative dairy products.

The farmer’s dairy story is always at the center of what Midwest Dairy does. Undeniably Dairy Grants are available to Midwest Dairy farmers, dairy groups and agricultural organizations to share this story. These grants turn great ideas for promoting the dairy community to consumers into reality. In 2022, grants were used to bring dairy to new places and audiences, host on-farm events and engage with Gen Z consumers. Applications are now open again for the 2023 funding cycle.

Optimistic outlook
A solid foundation from 2022 successes sets Midwest Dairy up to adapt and respond to consumer needs.

“We will continue to build on our dairy promotion work into the new year to assure the dairy farm family’s investment in checkoff is serving them well,” Pelzer said. “We’ll continue to focus on five areas: increasing dairy sales, growing trust, advancing research, creating dairy checkoff advocates, and developing farm and community leaders.”

Follow along with Midwest Dairy to see the checkoff at work. For more information, visit www.midwestdairy.com.




NCGA Joins Effort to Protect Crop Insurance as a Critical Risk Management Tool

The National Corn Growers Association joined over 60 groups in sending letters to key decision makers in the Biden administration and Congress opposing cuts to the federal crop insurance program during the upcoming fiscal year 2024 budget and appropriations processes.

“The last several years have brought an onslaught of uncertainty for America’s farmers and ranchers – from weather extremes to the disruptions of international markets to COVID-19 and all of its unique challenges,” the letter explains. “During this tumultuous time, one of the few certainties that farmers could rely on was the protection provided by the federal crop insurance policy purchased with their hard-earned dollars.”

Protecting crop insurance continues to be a top issue for NCGA and our grower members. NCGA President Tom Haag has provided congressional testimony on the importance of the program.

“Our number one priority for the farm bill is to protect crop insurance from harmful budget cuts and reforms,” Haag said.  

The Crop Insurance and Reinsurance Bureau, American Association of Crop Insurers and National Crop Insurance Services lead the crop insurance industry and organized the letter. NCGA joined the letter with others representing farmers, lenders, agricultural input providers and conservation groups.



2022 Census of Agriculture due next week Feb. 6

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reminds our nation’s farmers and ranchers that the deadline to respond to the 2022 Census of Agriculture is Feb. 6. Producers can respond online at agcounts.usda.gov or by mail.

Last month, NASS mailed the Census of Agriculture questionnaires to every known ag producer in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. Conducted just once every five years, the ag census provides a complete account of the nation’s farms and ranches and the people who operate them. Responding to the Census of Agriculture is required by federal law under Title 7 USC 2204(g) Public Law 105-113. The same law requires NASS to keep all individual operations’ information confidential, use the data for statistical purposes only, and publish the data in aggregate form to prevent disclosing the identity of any individual producer or farm operation.

“By participating in the 2022 Census of Agriculture, producers show the value and importance of American agriculture,” said NASS Administrator Hubert Hamer. “This nation owes a lot to our farmers and ranchers for providing safe and abundant food, feed, fiber, and more. To tell this story, we need to hear from all of our farmers and ranchers, no matter how big or small their part of agriculture. If you have already responded, thank you. If not, I encourage you to respond today.”

The Census of Agriculture remains the only source of uniform, comprehensive, and impartial agriculture data for every state, county, and U.S. territory. U.S. farm operations of all sizes, urban and rural, which produced and sold, or normally would have sold, $1,000 or more of agricultural products in 2022, are included as well as Puerto Rico farm operations which produced and sold, or normally would have sold, $500 or more of agricultural products in the ag census year.

“It is important that every producer respond to the 2022 Census of Agriculture so that they are represented and reflected in these influential data,” said Hamer. “These statistics will directly impact producers for years. Without their input, our hardworking ag producers risk being underserved.”

Producers who have submitted their completed ag censuses may disregard any additional ag census letters and forms. Whether producers responded online or by mail, they can verify their reports were received by going to agcounts.usda.gov, entering their survey codes, and checking the submitted date under the status column of the My Surveys tab. The status update is not always immediate. The update can take a few minutes up to several days, especially if the questionnaire was returned by mail.

NASS will release the results of the ag census in 2024. Visit nass.usda.gov/agcensus, for more information.



Livestock Marketing Association Announces New Scholarship Program    
 
The Livestock Marketing Association (LMA) is pleased to announce the release of a new scholarship program. With the goal of investing in the next generation, the program is designed to award five (5), $2500 scholarships to individuals that are interested in or display knowledge of the importance of the agriculture industry and its supporting entities, with plans to use their career to advocate for or advance the livestock marketing industry.
 
“We are excited to launch this new scholarship program to encourage and recognize the next generation of leaders in our industry,” said LMA President Mark Barnett. “We are always looking for ways to get the younger generation involved, and I believe this is a step in the right direction.”  
 
Applicants must be a graduating high school senior and/or currently enrolled at an accredited, postsecondary institution and maintain a GPA of 2.0 or higher. A letter of recommendation from an active LMA member must accompany the application at the time of submission. LMA members may not recommend more than two (2) applicants for the LMA scholarship in the same academic year.
 
Applications will remain open until March 31, 2023, at 4:00 p.m. Following the deadline, scholarship applications will be reviewed by a panel of LMA leadership, LMA membership and allied-industry relations.  
 
For more information on the LMA Scholarship Program, visit https://lmaweb.vercel.app/About/scholarships or contact LMA at lmainfo@lmaweb.com.   



Growth Energy Responds to 5th Circuit Order on SREs

Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy issued the following statement in response to the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals granting motions to stay compliance obligations pending final resolution for two refineries under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS):

“We’re disappointed the court issued an order delaying compliance by two facilities, but we’re confident that the RFS will be fully enforced once the merits are considered. The EPA’s position is backed by reams of real-world data and analysis by public- and private-sector experts. The supposed ‘cost’ to these refiners is an accounting fiction. Moreover, Congress never intended for these temporary exemptions to become a permanent handout. We agree with EPA’s view that it’s past time to end abuse of SREs, which destroy demand for low-carbon fuel and create needless uncertainty for all stakeholders, large and small."