Tuesday October 01 Crop Progress, Grain Stocks + Ag News

 NEBRASKA CROP PROGRESS AND CONDITION

For the week ending September 29, 2024, there were 6.8 days suitable for fieldwork, according to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. Topsoil moisture supplies rated 30% very short, 37% short, 32% adequate, and 1% surplus. Subsoil moisture supplies rated 24% very short, 40% short, 35% adequate, and 1% surplus.

Field Crops Report:
Corn condition rated 4% very poor, 7% poor, 20% fair, 48% good, and 21% excellent. Corn mature was 79%, near 81% last year, but ahead of 74% for the five-year average. Harvested was 17%, near 20% last year and 16% average.

Soybean condition rated 3% very poor, 6% poor, 23% fair, 51% good, and 17% excellent. Soybeans dropping leaves was 88%, near 92% last year, and equal to average. Harvested was 24%, near 25% last year and 23% average.

Winter wheat planted was 71%, near 74% last year and 67% average. Emerged was 20%, behind 31% last year, and near 24% average.

Sorghum condition rated 0% very poor, 3% poor, 20% fair, 52% good, and 25% excellent. Sorghum mature was 57%, near 59% both last year and average. Harvested was 6%, behind 12% last year, and near 10% average.

Dry edible bean condition rated 1% very poor, 5% poor, 23% fair, 46% good, and 25% excellent. Dry edible beans dropping leaves was 85%, near 84% last year, but behind 90% average. Harvested was 56%, near 52% last year, but behind 64% average.

Pasture and Range Report:
Pasture and range conditions rated 13% very poor, 28% poor, 33% fair, 21% good, and 5% excellent.



Iowa Crop Progress and Condition Report

Iowa continued to experience hot and dry conditions this week allowing Iowa farmers 6.5 days suitable for fieldwork during the week ending September 29, 2024, according to the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.  Field activities included harvesting both corn and soybeans.

Topsoil moisture condition rated 15 percent very short, 44 percent short, 41 percent adequate and 0 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture condition rated 11 percent very short, 44 percent short, 44 percent adequate and 1 percent surplus.

Corn in the dent stage or beyond reached 97 percent this week. Corn mature reached 75 percent, 1 week behind last year but 2 days ahead of normal. Corn harvested for grain reached 11 percent, 3 days behind last year but equal to the five-year average. Corn condition remained at 77 percent good to excellent.  

Soybeans coloring or beyond reached 95 percent. Soybeans dropping leaves reached 80 percent, 2 days behind last year but 3 days ahead of average. Soybeans harvested reached 27 percent this week, 3 days ahead of both last year and the five-year average. Soybean condition rated 77 percent good to excellent.

Pasture condition continued to deteriorate with 44 percent rated good to excellent this week.  With the continued dry conditions, some producers have had to begin hauling water to cattle.



USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report

Hurricane Helene caused historic flooding and widespread crop damage across the Southeast U.S. over the weekend and likely caused some damage and harvest delays in parts of the Eastern Corn Belt and Midsouth as well. But at the national level, corn and soybean harvest progress continued to outpace the five-year averages, according to USDA NASS' weekly national Crop Progress report on Monday.

CORN
-- Crop development: Corn dented was estimated at 96%, 1 point behind last year's 97%, but 1 point ahead of the five-year average of 95%. Corn mature was pegged at 75%, 4 points behind last year's 79% but 5 points ahead of the five-year average of 70%.
-- Harvest progress: The pace of the corn harvest picked up slightly last week, moving ahead 7 percentage points to reach 21% complete as of Sunday. That was equal to last year's pace but 3 points ahead of the five-year average of 18%.
-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 64% of corn still in fields was in good-to-excellent condition, down 1 point from 65% the previous week but above last year's 53%. Twelve percent of the crop was rated very poor to poor, unchanged from the previous week but below 18% last year.

SOYBEANS
-- Crop development: Soybeans dropping leaves were pegged at 81%, 1 point behind last year's 82% but 8 points ahead of the five-year average of 73%.
-- Harvest progress: Soybean harvest gained momentum last week, moving ahead 13 percentage points to reach 26% complete as of Sunday, 6 points ahead of last year's 20% and 8 points ahead of the five-year average of 18%.
-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 64% of soybeans still in fields were in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged from the previous week but still above last year's rating of 52% good to excellent.

WINTER WHEAT
-- Planting progress: Winter wheat planting moved ahead 14 points last week to reach 39% nationwide as of Sunday, 3 points ahead of last year's 36% and 1 point ahead of the five-year average of 38%.
-- Crop development: An estimated 14% of winter wheat was emerged as of Sunday, 1 point ahead of both last year and the five-year average of 13%.



NEBRASKA SEPTEMBER 1, 2024 GRAIN STOCKS

Nebraska corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2024 totaled 147 million bushels, up 13% from 2023, according to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. Of the total, 71.0 million bushels are stored on farms, up 4% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 75.9 million bushels, are up 22% from last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions totaled 22.1 million bushels, up 5% from last year. On-farm stocks of 6.70 million bushels are up 20% from a year ago, but off-farm stocks, at 15.4 million bushels, are down slightly from 2023.

Wheat stored in all positions totaled 53.9 million bushels, up 31% from a year ago. On-farm stocks of 9.20 million bushels are up 8% from 2023 and off-farm stocks of 44.7 million bushels are up 37% from last year.

Sorghum Off-farm holdings, at 784,000 bushels, are down 7% from last year.

Oat On-farm oat stocks totaled 850,000 bushels, up 70% from 2023.

Barley stored in all positions totaled 106,000 bushels.



IOWA GRAIN STOCKS

Corn stored in all positions in Iowa on September 1, 2024, totaled 306 million bushels, up 11 percent from September 1, 2023, according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Grain Stocks report. Of the total stocks, 46 percent were stored on-farm. The June-August 2024 indicated disappearance totaled 573 million bushels, 13 percent above the 509 million bushels from the same quarter the previous year.

Soybeans stored in all positions in Iowa on September 1, 2024, totaled 73.3 million bushels, up 54 percent from September 1, 2023. Of the total stocks, 35 percent were stored on-farm. Indicated disappearance for June-August 2024 was 102 million bushels, 7 percent above the 95.2 million bushels from the same quarter the previous year.



Corn, Soybean Stocks Both Up 29 Percent from September 2023

Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2024 totaled 1.76 billion bushels, up 29 percent from September 1, 2023. Of the total stocks, 780 million bushels are stored on farms, up 29 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 980 million bushels, are up 30 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2024 indicated disappearance is 3.24 billion bushels, compared with 2.74 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports, and farm program administrative data, the 2023 corn for grain production is revised down 1.08 million bushels from the previous estimate. Corn silage production is revised down 140 thousand tons. Planted area is unchanged at 94.6 million acres, but area harvested for grain is revised down 7,000 acres to 86.5 million acres. Area harvested for silage is revised down 10,000 acres to 6.46 million acres. The 2023 grain yield, at 177.3 bushels per acre, is unchanged from the previous estimate. The 2023 silage yield, at 20.1 tons per acre, remains unchanged from the previous estimate. A table with 2023 acreage, yield, and production estimates by States is included on pages 17 and 18 of this report.

Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2024 totaled 342 million bushels, up 29 percent from September 1, 2023. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 111 million bushels, up 54 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 231 million bushels, are up 20 percent from last September. Indicated disappearance for June - August 2024 totaled 628 million bushels, up 18 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, the 2023 soybean production is revised down 2.62 million bushels from the previous estimate. Planted area is unchanged at 83.6 million acres, but harvested area is revised to 82.3 million acres. The 2023 yield, at 50.6 bushels per acre, is unchanged from the previous estimate. A table with 2023 acreage, yield, and production estimates by States is included on page 19 of this report.

All wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2024 totaled 1.99 billion bushels, up 12 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 664 million bushels, up 11 percent from last September. Off-farm stocks, at 1.32 billion bushels, are up 13 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2024 indicated disappearance is 682 million bushels, up 12 percent from the same period a year earlier.



2024 NEBRASKA SMALL GRAIN ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION

Winter wheat production is estimated at 47.8 million bushels, up 29% from last year, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. The area harvested for grain totaled 920,000 acres, up 5% from 2023. Planted acreage totaled 1.00 million, down 12% from a year earlier. The yield is 52.0 bushels per acre, up 10 bushels from last year.

Oat production is estimated at 2.48 million bushels, up 95% from 2023. Area harvested for grain, at 36,000 acres, is up 50% from last year. Planted acreage totaled 120,000, down 23% from a year earlier. Average yield is 69.0 bushels per acre, up 16 bushels from 2023.

IOWA - Oat production was estimated at 5.99 million bushels, down 21 percent from last year, according to the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Small Grains 2024 Summary. Oats
planted, at 145,000 acres, was down 24 percent from last year. Harvested area for grain was 73,000 acres, down 23 percent from the harvested acres in 2023. Oat yield, at 82.0 bushels per acre, was up 2.0 bushels from last year.

U.S. Small Grains 2024 Summary
All wheat production totaled 1.97 billion bushels in 2024, up 9 percent from the 2023 total of 1.80 billion bushels. Area harvested for grain totaled 38.5 million acres, up 4 percent from the previous year. The average yield in the United States was estimated at 51.2 bushels per acre, up 2.5 bushels from the previous year. The levels of production and changes from 2023 by type were: winter wheat, 1.35 billion bushels, up 9 percent; other spring wheat, 542 million bushels, up 8 percent; and Durum wheat, 80.1 million bushels, up 35 percent.

Oat production was estimated at 67.8 million bushels, up 19 percent from 2023. Yield was estimated at a record high 76.5 bushels per acre, up 7.9 bushels from the previous year. Harvested area, at 886 thousand acres, was 7 percent above last year.

Barley production was estimated at 144 million bushels, down 23 percent from the 2023 total of 186 million bushels. The United States average yield, at 76.7 bushels per acre, was up 4.4 bushels from the previous year. Producers seeded 2.37 million acres in 2024, down 24 percent from 2023. Harvested area, at 1.88 million acres, was down 27 percent from 2023.



Celebrate the Future with Central Valley Ag During National Co-op Month

October is National Co-op Month, a time to celebrate the unique business model of cooperatives. In a cooperative, members jointly own and operate the organization, sharing profits and benefits. Central Valley Ag, a proud member of the cooperative community, is excited to join the celebration with a focus on the future.

The 2024 Co-op Month theme is "The Future is Cooperative." To celebrate the future of cooperatives, CVA has opened a retail store where employees and customers can purchase new CVA Co-op merchandise. The store will be open from October 1st to October 15th, and orders will be shipped after the store has closed. To order a t-shirt or hoodie, visit cvacoop.com.

Throughout October, CVA employees across Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa will celebrate Co-op Month with member engagement activities. Look out for location photos, fun events, and the latest updates on CVA's social media platforms.

"The cooperative business model is a powerful force. By empowering members to have a say in how their businesses are run, we're building a future that's not only sustainable but also just and equitable," said Luke Carlson, CVA Board Chairman. “I am proud to be a part of the cooperative business model and am excited for the future of not only CVA, but cooperatives everywhere.”

To learn more about cooperatives, visit www.growingagriculturetogether.com. This website provides information on cooperative history, cooperative member control, and patronage. With PowerPoints, quizzes, wordsearches, and more, there are so many ways to learn. If you would like to schedule a classroom visit from a CVA employee, please reach out to info@cvacoop.com.

Happy Co-op Month from CVA.



Iowa's Best Breaded Pork Tenderloin: Meet the Finalists
    
The annual competition for the title of Iowa’s Best Breaded Pork Tenderloin has been whittled down from 40 restaurants to just five finalists across the state, showcasing the best of Iowa's beloved, hand-breaded delicacy!

The top five restaurants still in the running for the coveted title this year, listed alphabetically, are:
    Bronson Bar - Bronson
    Dairy Sweet - Dunlap
    Ruby’s Pub and Grill - Stuart
    The Blind Pig - Monticello
    The Market at the Tap - Monticello

“There were 532 restaurants nominated for our 22nd annual contest, which goes to show that Iowans love their breaded pork tenderloins,” said Kelsey Sutter, marketing and programs director for IPPA. “Over the years, I’ve seen firsthand that Iowa has no shortage of these hand-breaded favorites.”

To win the “Iowa’s Best Breaded Tenderloin” title, a restaurant must offer the sandwich on their menu year-round. Seasonal eateries, caterers, concession stands, and food trucks are not eligible. While the style of tenderloin can vary, the pork must be hand-breaded or battered to qualify!

This summer, judging commenced for the top 40 restaurants, selected from public nominations. The list featured the five restaurants with the most nominations in each of IPPA’s eight districts, ensuring statewide representation.

IPPA members and industry affiliates visited these locations anonymously, evaluating the tenderloins on pork taste, quality, physical characteristics, and presentation. After reviewing all 40 evaluations, IPPA’s Restaurant and Foodservice Committee chose five finalists to move on to the next round. A panel of three judges was then appointed to visit each finalist and determine the first and second place winners.

The winning restaurant and runner-up will be announced later in October, during a month-long celebration of pork called Porktober, or national pork month. The runner-up will receive $250 and a plaque from IPPA, while the winning restaurant will receive $500, a plaque, a banner, and statewide publicity—which has been known to send pork tenderloin sales hog wild!



Iowa Corn Honors Curt Jones with the 2024 Iowa Corn Walter Goeppinger Lifetime Achievement Award

Iowa Corn is pleased to announce the recipients of the 2024 Iowa Corn Walter Goeppinger Lifetime Achievement Award. This annual recognition is presented to an individual who has been a friend and active leader of Iowa Corn. This year, we proudly honored Curt Jones with the 2024 Iowa Corn Walter Goeppinger Lifetime Achievement Award for his years of leadership to our organization and impact to Iowa Corn Promotion Board’s research efforts.  

The beginning of Iowa Corn can be traced back to 1957 when founder Walter Goeppinger, of Boone, Iowa, had a vision for a grassroots-driven group to support corn farming and rallied his friends and neighbors together to create the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA). In 1967, Goeppinger helped create the Iowa Corn Growers Association, the first state corn group in the country. Then in 1977, he was instrumental in establishing the nation’s first corn checkoff program, the Iowa Corn Promotion Board (ICPB). To keep the story of Goeppinger’s contributions to our corn industry alive for generations to come, in 2016, Iowa Corn established the Walter Goeppinger Lifetime Achievement Award in his honor. Each year, the joint board of directors selects an individual with outstanding service and commitment to advancing the corn industry.  

Those who have had the privilege to work with and serve beside Curt Jones know the dedicated and steadfast passion he has for the agriculture industry. As a leader Curt was an excellent listener and while not always the first to speak up, when he did choose to add to a conversation, he was very effective in communicating his ideas and thoughts. When Curt spoke, people listened.

Curt’s involvement with Iowa Corn started in the 1990s at the local level in Clay County. With the support of his wife, Mary Ellen, Curt quickly began rising through the ranks and got engaged in both NCGA and served as chair of the ICPB. He found his real passion for industry and farming coexisted through the research committee. His passion for research made him pivotal in identifying new opportunities to improve corn production and utilization. 

Curt was instrumental in transitioning the way ICPB does research from funding general projects to targeting specific markets that have a practical impact for corn farmers, this has helped to set the path for research projects we do today.  He was an advocate for using consultants with expertise in the field and saw an opportunity to work with start-up companies. Curt believed that NCGA and state corn organizations should work together to develop new uses for corn, something that we are doing today with the New Uses Consortium.  

Curt's contributions, including securing funding for sequencing the corn genome and advancing research in nitrogen use efficiency, as well as pioneering new uses for corn such as monoethylene glycol (MEG) and propylene glycol (PG), which have profoundly shaped the future of agriculture.

Curt's visionary approach to research, characterized by his advocacy for practical applications and strategic partnerships, not only propelled Iowa Corn forward but also set new standards for research excellence and industry collaboration. We thank Curt for his years of dedication and appreciate all that he has helped us achieve on behalf of Iowa’s corn farmers.  



Illinois Farmer, Kenneth Hartman Jr., Becomes President of the National Corn Growers Association

Kenneth R. Hartman Jr., a corn farmer from Waterloo, Ill., began his term this week as president of the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA).

During meetings with the media today, Hartman discussed the current economic challenges corn growers face and said he wanted to push for passage of a robust farm bill, expand markets and address tariffs that are being placed on ag supplies and passed on to farmers.

He also talked about the need to extend consumer access to higher blends of ethanol. Key to accomplishing these goals, he said, is building relationships.

 “My theme as president is “Building Bridges,” Hartman said. “We need to build on our ties with existing allies while cultivating new relationships with other organizations inside and outside agriculture. We also need to continue to reach out to policymakers and other leaders who may not represent rural communities but who benefit indirectly from the work of farmers. I strongly believe that coalition building is one of the most effective ways to get things done.”

Hartman, a fifth-generation farmer, operates his farm along with his wife Anita, mother Joann and daughter Amanda.

 Hartman has extensive experience in advocacy. He served on the NCGA board for six years in a variety of leadership roles, and he is a past president of the Illinois Corn Growers Association and past chairman of the Illinois Corn Marketing Board. He is also a member of the Illinois Leadership Council for Ag Education.

In 2021, Hartman was honored by Prairie Farmer magazine with the Master Farmer award for his exceptional agricultural production skills as well as his commitment to family and service.

 Hartman takes the reins at NCGA as growers across the Corn Belt face rising input costs and lower commodity prices. To address the issue, Hartman said he will focus on several issues, including advancing ethanol legislation, working with U.S. officials to expand foreign markets and identifying new uses for corn.

NCGA’s board elects a member of the board to serve as president each year. The term begins in early October, the start of NCGA’s fiscal year.

Harold Wolle, the organization’s immediate past president who hails from Minnesota, will now serve as chairman of the board.



Congress Must Not Leave Farmers in a Lurch

Today marks the expiration of the one-year extension of the 2018 farm bill, leaving farmers and ranchers anxious about whether Congress can secure a new, five-year reauthorization. Despite Congress giving themselves a full extra year to craft and pass a new farm bill, inaction remains the status quo in the halls of Congress.

“We are running out of time,” said American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall. “Farmers and ranchers were told lawmakers just needed more time to pass a five-year farm bill, but once again we find ourselves in a lurch without much-needed improvements to safety net and risk management programs. Meanwhile, America has lost 141,000 farms in five years. Low commodity prices, rising supply costs, inflation and outdated farm policy provisions threaten to destroy the dreams of thousands more.

“We applaud House Agriculture Committee Chairman GT Thompson for crafting and moving a bipartisan farm bill through committee. And we appreciate Ranking Member David Scott’s commitment to achieving a full reauthorization of the farm bill instead of passing the buck with another extension. In the Senate, Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow and Ranking Member John Boozman have both released outlines and priorities.

“All of this is forward progress. But America’s farmers and ranchers need results. Food doesn’t appear on grocery store shelves because farmers put ideas on paper. Families in this country can purchase safe, nutritious and affordable food because farmers and ranchers take action every day of the year.

“Actions speak louder than words. I urge members of Congress and party leaders to put politics aside and pass a new, modernized farm bill. Show every family in America that ensuring a full pantry is the priority of those we elected to serve.”

When the farm bill expires, some impacts will be felt immediately, while other consequences will be triggered in the coming months. New enrollment for some critical conservation programs, including the Conservation Reserve Program, will halt, affecting agriculture’s work to meet sustainability goals. When the new year begins, Dairy Margin Coverage payments will cease, and farm safety net programs revert back to outdated 1940s policy that threatens to disrupt markets.

Congress must pass a new, modernized farm bill, but farmers need help now. Until a new bill is enacted, Farm Bureau calls on lawmakers to provide funds for natural disaster and economic assistance to bridge the gap.



New Website Launches To Strengthen Checkoff Value Communications

Dairy Management Inc. (DMI) has launched www.dairycheckoff.com to more effectively communicate the full national and local impact of the dairy checkoff to farmers and importers.

Content focused toward these audiences previously was housed at www.USDairy.com, which will continue to serve as a go-to resource to reach consumer and thought leader audiences with information and research-backed information on dairy and its benefit on health and wellness and the environment.

The new site is designed in a way to focus on checkoff areas that are important to farmers, including:
    Growing Demand for Dairy
    Research and Innovation
    Youth Wellness
    Exports
    Sustainability
    Partnerships
    Health & Nutrition
    Farmer Image

“When we spoke with farmers we could see there was some confusion when we had just one website for the entirety of the checkoff and they didn’t know how to get more information on programs that are delivering results for them,” said Joanna Hunter, group executive vice president and head of farmer relations and outreach for DMI. “DairyCheckoff.com is developed with a farmer-first mindset and is categorized around how farmers think about the work that the checkoff does nationally and locally.

“I really believe there is something that every farmer cares about that the checkoff touches and this is a place where they can find deeper information and resources.”

In addition to information on each of the key checkoff pillars, visitors will find episodes of the Your Dairy Checkoff Podcast, the latest checkoff news updates, DMI Board of Directors information, annual reports, budget and financials information and more.

“The new website is an awesome one-stop shop for all things dairy checkoff,” said Minnesota dairy farmer Charles Krause, who serves on the DMI board. “You can learn about the wide variety of ways that checkoff is working on farmers’ behalf in a very easy to navigate format.”



Why Falling Milk Production Masks U.S. Dairy Industry’s Capacity for Growth  

The U.S. dairy industry has long relied on monthly milk production data from the USDA to track the trajectory of milk supplies available for processing and to project potential dairy product output. Historically, falling milk production from dairy farms would signal a decline in supplies of both fluid milk and the key solid milk components used to produce cheese, butter and other dairy foods. Production volumes of farmgate milk and the components in that milk trended closely together for decades. As a market indicator, tightening milk supplies could potentially curtail dairy processors’ growth or expansion plans.

That dynamic has changed, however, as the composition of milk produced in the U.S. has evolved to steadily include more butterfat and protein content. While U.S. milk production has slowed in recent years, key milk components used to make many of the most popular solid dairy products have climbed. Recent dairy production data accentuates the trend. Through September 2024, U.S. milk production on a milk volume basis has declined for 14 consecutive months. Meanwhile, butterfat and protein production has grown in 12 of those same months.

According to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, the decoupling of fluid milk production and milk component production represents an important paradigm shift for the industry given growing consumer demand for manufactured dairy products. More than 80% of U.S. milk production goes into dairy food products that rely on milk components while less than 20% goes into the fluid beverage category.

Considering the significance of these changes in U.S. milk composition and consumer demand, the report suggests the dairy industry would benefit from a more comprehensive monthly report from USDA that includes milk, protein and butterfat production levels.

“USDA’s Milk Production reports have been the gold standard for tracking milk available for processing since 1924,” said Corey Geiger, lead dairy economist with CoBank. “However, changes in milk composition have made the report incomplete when it comes to understanding whether production is growing or declining, and by how much. A more robust report including milk components as well as fluid milk production data would be informative to producers, processors and retailers from a planning and risk management standpoint.”

At $76 billion in annual U.S. sales, dairy is the largest category in retail grocery, according to data from Circana. However, dairy product sales look much different than in generations past. Growth in the category is being driven by manufactured dairy products such as cheese, whey, butter, yogurt, ice cream and other products that depend heavily on milk components such as protein and butterfat and not the fluid portion. The shift in consumption patterns means that milk solids, not milk volume, matter more to most dairy processors.

Cheese is a prime example of a product that had benefitted from milk’s growing component yields. In 2010, 100 pounds milk from the typical U.S. dairy farm yielded 10.1 pounds of cheese. Fast forward to 2023, 100 pounds of milk yields 11.2 pounds of cheese. That 10.8% improvement is product yield driven by higher butterfat and protein content.

Domestic markets aren’t the only category experiencing these shifts. Manufactured dairy products dominate the growing export opportunities for U.S. dairy and create more demand for milk components. Opportunities for growth both at home and abroad are among the reasons domestic and international dairy processors are investing over $7 billion in new dairy processing capacity in the coming years.

Several factors have fueled the rising levels of protein and butterfat in the U.S. milk supply, chief among them are the Milk Component Pricing provisions that established values for 92% of the nation’s milk. Combined with soaring consumer demand for cheese, dairy producers have been increasingly incentivized to shift management strategies that would result in higher milk component levels.

Geiger acknowledged that reframing the monthly Milk Production report to include protein and butterfat data would be a difficult and time-consuming endeavor for the USDA, given the complexities of how that data is currently tracked. But given the apparent permanence of shifting dairy production, processing and consumption patterns, the effort would be well-placed and well-received.

“Long-term, the collective U.S. dairy industry would benefit from an updated system that collects more component data and reports that data in a timely fashion,” said Geiger. “That’s important to the dairy industry because consumers both at home and abroad continue to eat more milk solids found in manufactured dairy products and drink less fluid milk with each passing year.”



USDA Invests $1.7 Billion to Support Farmers, Deliver Nutrition Assistance, and Bolster Rural Economies

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) today announced an investment of $1.7 billion for purchase of locally and regionally produced foods and domestically produced foods for emergency food assistance. These investments, made possible by the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC), will help American producers by ensuring they have the certainty of access to local and regional markets as well as the financial benefits that come with selling directly to institutions. With these purchases, USDA is at the same time ensuring schools, child care facilities and emergency food providers have access to healthy foods.    

“The investments USDA is announcing today provide immediate and long-term assistance to American farmers, families, and communities,” said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. “By delivering food from domestic producers to schools, child care facilities and emergency feeding organizations, we’re securing local and regional markets for those farmers and ensuring our students, young children and neighbors in need are getting nutritious, reliable meals. These types of investments keep local economies strong and help build resilient food systems with lasting impact.”   

Many of these initiatives build on previous investments in local and regional food systems that have helped many farmers find new markets and recover from supply chain disruptions. Local and regional commercial opportunities are especially important for small- and mid-sized farming operations in the aftermath of natural disasters. These funds respond to pre-existing needs that Hurricane Helene has exacerbated and provide an early foundation for future disaster assistance and long-term recovery efforts.  

With funding made available from the CCC, USDA is providing:   
    $1.2 billion to support local food purchases with schools, child care facilities, food banks, and other institutions; and  
    $500 million to purchase domestic commodities for emergency food providers.  

Local Food Support  
USDA is providing $1.2 billion for local food purchases that food banks, schools, and child care facilities will integrate into their meals for the coming year. This funding builds on previously provided local food support and creates new marketing opportunities for small- and mid-sized producers and food businesses. Past funding has provided much needed assistance to schools and food banks as they grapple with acquiring enough food to meet the needs of their recipients. Continued investment in local purchasing allows producers to expand, invest in infrastructure, and solidify new connections that support resilient regional food systems while providing healthy products to food recipients.   

Of the funding, $500 million will be made available for states, territories, and Tribal nations to purchase local foods for emergency food providers and underserved communities, while another $500 million will allow school meal programs to make local food purchases. For the first time, USDA will also provide $200 million in funds specifically for child care facilities, which face similar challenges purchasing food as schools.  

This builds on USDA’s popular Local Food Purchase Assistance Cooperative Agreement Program (LFPA) and Local Food for Schools Cooperative Agreement Program (LFS), both of which were created in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and strengthened local relationships between producers and their communities, providing new markets for producers and jobs and opportunities in local communities.    

Support for Emergency Food Providers  
USDA is providing $500 million to purchase domestic commodities for emergency food providers like food banks and food pantries. This latest round of funding, in addition to the nearly $2 billion previously provided in 2022 and 2023, will allow states to order American-grown commodities from USDA for emergency food providers. These investments and several other USDA actions to support emergency food providers will help ensure no one in America goes without the nutrition they need.  Past domestic commodity support has enhanced food deliveries to emergency providers fighting food and nutrition insecurity while supporting American agriculture, and these funds continue that investment.



Seasonality in Feeder Cattle Prices
Hannah Baker, Beef and Forage Economics, University of Florida / IFAS Extension

The fall months are when a majority of producers across the country are selling spring-born calves or yearlings from last fall. Due to the increase in supply of calves, prices typically decline during these months. A way to show this seasonality trend is to look at the seasonal price index. The average annual price index shows the relationship between each month’s average price and the annual average price. When the price index is above 100%, that means prices in that month, on average, are higher than the annual average, (spring). When the price index is below 100%, that means average prices in that month are lower than the annual average, (fall).

The maximum and minimum indices are used to show the approximate range of prices during that month. For example, during 2014-2023, average October prices in the Southern Plains were 96 percent of the annual average, but there was variability where prices ranged between 86% and 108% of the annual average for October.

The graph below includes 2023 when prices did not follow the seasonality trend of declining in the fall, but rather increased. For instance, average prices for 500-550-pound feeder cattle in Florida increased by 18 percent from March to October. On average from 2018-2022, prices during this same period declined by about 9 percent. Prices continued rising into 2024, but then began falling as we approached the summer and fall months, following the typical seasonality trend.

In terms of where we are in the cattle cycle today compared to in 2015, the price trends look similar as if we have already seen peak prices and are headed for lower prices. However, the difference to notice between 2024 and 2015 is inventory levels and the rate of expansion. In 2015, expansion had already started when prices were at the levels we are seeing today. There was no incentive for prices to climb back up after the typical dip in the fall. In the current market, we have not starting seeing signs of stabilization, much less expansion, and have already hit record prices that we saw back in 2015. This indicates that while we are experiencing some seasonality this year, it is not expected that we are headed for a continuous low level of cattle prices.