Friday November 22 Ag News

 Rural Mainstreet Economy Soars to Highest Level in 15 Months

For the first time since July 2023, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) rose above growth neutral, according to the November survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Overall: The region’s overall reading for November climbed to a soft 50.2 from October’s very weak 35.2. It was the highest reading since July of last year. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Yields have been healthy across the region and have offset some of the weakness in farm commodity prices. Likewise, lower fuel costs and lower short-term interest boosted the modest improvement in farm conditions for the month. Even so, more than eight of 10 bankers see lower ag commodity prices as the greatest threat to the farmer,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farming and ranch land prices: For the sixth time in the past seven months, farmland prices sank. However, the region’s farmland index improved to a weak 44.4 from October’s six-year low of 38.5. “Elevated interest rates and higher input costs, along with below break-even grain prices, have significantly reduced farmer demand for ag land,” said Goss.

On average, bank CEOs expect farmland prices to decline by 2.7% over the next 12 months.  

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index slumped to 14.6, its lowest level since October 2016, and was down from 18.8 last month. “This is the 16th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak farm commodity prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Banking: The November loan volume index declined to a solid 58.9 from a strong 73.1. The checking deposit index fell to 59.3 from 63.7 in October. The index for certificates of deposits (CDs) and other savings instruments sank to 53.7 from 63.5 in October. The Federal Reserve’s higher interest rate policies have boosted CD purchases above growth neutral for 24 straight months.

Below are the state reports:
Nebraska: The Nebraska Rural Mainstreet Index for November increased to 44.4 from October’s 33.5. The state’s farmland price index for November rose to 42.9 from 36.9 in October. Nebraska’s November new hiring index increased to 47.9 from 45.8 in October. According to trade data from the ITA, regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date expanded to $622.4 million from $475.9 million from the same period in 2023 or a 30.8% gain.

Iowa: November’s RMI for the state increased to 49.6 from 37.1 in October. Iowa’s farmland price index for November rose to 41.1 from 38.6 in October. Iowa’s new hiring index for November fell to 49.3 from 52.4 in October. According to trade data from the ITA, regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date sank to $1.1 billion from $1.2 billion from the same period in 2023 or a 2.3% reduction.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.



Inaugural Northeast Nebraska Ag Conference Dec. 17

Farmers and ranchers in Northeast Nebraska and beyond are invited to the Northeast Nebraska Ag Conference on Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024, at the Lifelong Learning Center on the Northeast Community College campus in Norfolk.

This new event, co-hosted by the Bow Creek Watershed Project and the Bazile Groundwater Management Area (BGMA), replaces the BGMA Winter Meeting traditionally held in January or February.

The conference provides a platform for producers to exchange ideas about conservation practices that boost profitability while safeguarding water quality. Attendees will hear directly from other farmers and ranchers about their experiences, gaining practical insights into conservation production techniques.

Keynote speaker Rick Clark, a farmer from Williamsport, Indiana, will open the day with an inspiring address focused on regenerative soil health management systems. Clark’s innovative approach uses natural processes to reduce farm input costs. He will share his journey into organic no-till farming, including valuable lessons learned along the way.

Other featured speakers include Jason Mauck, Mitch Hora, Paul Jasa, Roy Thompson, and more, covering topics such as:
    Equipment setup for conservation practices
    Cropping strategies and grazing techniques
    Cutting-edge agricultural technology
    Value-added products
    Incentives for conservation

With 15 breakout sessions, attendees can customize their schedule to match their specific interests and operational needs. The day will conclude with a local farmer panel sharing firsthand how they’ve successfully implemented conservation practices in Northeast Nebraska.

“In addition to great speakers, this is a chance to network with like-minded farmers and ranchers,” said Becky Ravenkamp, Bow Creek Watershed coordinator. “Whether you’ve been practicing conservation for decades or are just starting to explore the possibilities, you’ll find peers and resources to guide you. Plus, attendees could win fantastic door prizes at the end of the day!”

Registration Details:
    FREE registration is available through December 6, 2024.
    Late and at-the-door registrations are $20.
    Register online at: https://lcnrd.nebraska.gov/

The Northeast Nebraska Ag Conference is produced by the Lewis & Clark, Lower Elkhorn, Lower Niobrara, and Upper Elkhorn NRDs along with the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources.

 

Nebraska Ethanol Board Dec. 4 board meeting to be held in Lincoln

The Nebraska Ethanol Board will meet in Lincoln at 11 a.m. on Wednesday, Dec. 4. The meeting will be at Hyatt Place (600 Q Street) in meeting room I-II. Highlights of the agenda include:
    Public Opportunity for Questions, Comments or Concerns
    Budget Report
    Southeast Community College Biotechnology Program
    Technical & Research Updates
    Nebraska Corn Board Update
    Renewable Fuels Nebraska Update
    State and Federal Legislation
    Election of Board Officers for 2025

This agenda contains all items to come before the Board except those items of an emergency nature. Nebraska Ethanol Board meetings are open to the public and also published on the public calendar.

The Nebraska Ethanol Board works to ensure strong public policy and consumer support for biofuels. Since 1971, the independent state agency has designed and managed programs to expand production, market access, worker safety and technology innovation, including recruitment of producers interested in developing conventional ethanol, as well as bio-products from the ethanol platform. For more information, visit www.ethanol.nebraska.gov.



Papio NRD Accepting Orders for Tree and Shrub Seedlings

The Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District (Papio NRD) is accepting orders for tree and shrub seedlings.

Through the Conservation Tree Program, homeowners, acreage owners, producers, and operators can purchase bare-root seedlings for $30/bundle plus tax. There are 25 seedlings of the same species per bundle. Multiple species are available. There are also two “variety” bundles available to order which include five different species in a bundle of 20 seedlings for $30 plus tax.

The seedlings are ideal for windbreaks, wildlife habitat, and living snow fences designed to reduce blowing and drifting snow. Many tree/shrub projects are eligible for Papio NRD cost share which can significantly reduce out-of-pocket costs.

For more information, or to receive an order form, please contact one of our Field Office representatives in your county:

Washington, Douglas & Sarpy counties: Kalani Fortina at 402-426-4782 ext. 3
Burt County: Deb Ward at 402-374-1920 ext. 3
Thurston County: Tamara Tipton at 402-846-5655
Dakota County: Mahkenna Koinzan at 402-494-4949

Orders will be accepted through February 21st, 2025.



Commercial Red Meat Production Up 5 Percent from Last Year

Commercial red meat production for the United States totaled 5.02 billion pounds in October, up 5 percent from the 4.77 billion pounds produced in October 2023.

Beef production, at 2.47 billion pounds, was 5 percent above the previous year. Cattle slaughter totaled 2.86 million head, up 1 percent from October 2023. The average live weight was up 44 pounds from the previous year, at 1,418 pounds.

Veal production totaled 3.3 million pounds, 21 percent below October a year ago. Calf slaughter totaled 17,100 head, down 26 percent from October 2023. The average live weight was up 21 pounds from last year, at 330 pounds.

Pork production totaled 2.54 billion pounds, up 5 percent from the previous year. Hog slaughter totaled 11.9 million head, up 4 percent from October 2023. The average live weight was up 2 pounds from the previous year, at 287 pounds.

Lamb and mutton production, at 11.7 million pounds, was up 4 percent from October 2023. Sheep slaughter totaled 194,700 head, slightly above last year. The average live weight was 118 pounds, up 3 pounds from October a year ago.

By State            million lbs     % Oct '23
Nebraska ......:     762.5            111  
Iowa ............:     819.5            105       
Kansas .........:      515.5            103       

January to October 2024 commercial red meat production was 45.8 billion pounds, up 1 percent from 2023. Accumulated beef production was up slightly from last year, veal was down 15 percent, pork was up 2 percent from last year, and lamb and mutton production was up 2 percent.



Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner Declines – Remains Higher Than Pre-Pandemic Levels

Cooking a Thanksgiving feast for your friends and family will cost less than last year but will still be more expensive than before the pandemic. The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 39th annual Thanksgiving dinner survey provides a snapshot of the average cost of this year’s classic holiday feast for 10, which is $58.08 or about $5.80 per person.

This is a 5% decrease from 2023, which was 4.5% lower than 2022. Two years of declines don’t erase dramatic increases that led to a record high cost of $64.06 in 2022. Despite the encouraging momentum, a Thanksgiving meal is still 19% higher than it was in 2019, which highlights the impact inflation has had on food prices – and farmers’ costs – since the pandemic.

The centerpiece on most Thanksgiving tables – the turkey – helped bring down the overall cost of dinner. The average price for a 16-pound turkey is $25.67. That is $1.60 per pound, down 6% from last year.

Farm Bureau volunteer shoppers checked prices Nov. 1-7, before most grocery store chains began featuring whole frozen turkeys at sharply lower prices. According to USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data, the average per-pound feature price for whole frozen turkeys declined further during the second week of November. Consumers who have not yet purchased a turkey may find additional savings in the days leading up to Thanksgiving.

“The turkey is traditionally the main attraction on the Thanksgiving table and is typically the most expensive part of the meal,” said AFBF Economist Bernt Nelson. “The American turkey flock is the smallest it’s been since 1985 because of avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen, resulting in lower prices at the grocery store for families planning a holiday meal.”

The shopping list for Farm Bureau’s informal survey includes turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, and pumpkin pie with whipped cream, all in quantities sufficient to serve a gathering of 10.

Most ingredients in the survey saw a decline in prices, including fresh vegetables. The drop in prices reflects price volatility in crops this year. The cost of whole milk dropped more than 14%. Favorable weather contributed to the decline in milk pricing. It is important to note, however, that milk prices vary significantly between regions in the U.S.

Items like dinner rolls and cubed stuffing both saw an 8% increase because higher labor costs, among other drivers, are increasing the cost of processed food. Cranberry prices increased almost 12% year-over-year. In 2023, cranberries had the second largest decrease in price of any products in our basket at 18%. The increase this year puts cranberry prices closer to historic norms and, excluding last year, is the least expensive year since 2015.

“We should all be thankful that we live in a country with such an abundant food supply,” said AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “We are seeing modest improvements in the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for a second year, but America’s families, including farm families, are still being hurt by high inflation.”

“America has one of the most affordable food supplies in the world. In order to maintain that, we need a strong farm bill which enables Americans to pursue their dreams without worrying about feeding their families,” Duvall said. “A new farm bill with a modernized safety net to support those who raise crops and livestock ensures farmers can survive tough economic times and continue to supply food for America’s families, not just for the holidays, but year-round.”

In recognition of changes in Thanksgiving dinner traditions, the Farm Bureau price survey also includes boneless ham, Russet potatoes and frozen green beans, in an expanded menu. Adding these foods to the classic Thanksgiving menu increased the overall cost by $19.26, to $77.34.

This year’s national average cost was calculated using surveys completed with pricing data from all 50 states and Puerto Rico. Farm Bureau volunteer shoppers checked prices in person and online using grocery store apps and websites. They looked for the best possible prices without taking advantage of special promotional coupons or combined purchase deals.

The AFBF Thanksgiving dinner survey was first conducted in 1986. The informal survey provides a record of comparative holiday meal costs over the years. Farm Bureau’s classic survey menu has remained unchanged since 1986 to allow for consistent price comparisons.

Individual Prices
    16-pound turkey: $25.67 or $1.60 per pound (down 6.1%)
    14-ounces of cubed stuffing mix: $4.08 (up 8.2%)
    2 frozen pie crusts: $3.40 (down 2.9%)
    Half pint of whipping cream: $1.81 (up 4.7%)
    1 pound of frozen peas: $1.73 (down 8.1%)
    1 dozen dinner rolls: $4.16 (up 8.4%)
    Misc. ingredients to prepare the meal: $3.75 (down 5.1%)
    30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.15 (down 6.5%)
    1 gallon of whole milk: $3.21 (down 14.3%)
    3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $2.93 (down 26.2%)
    1-pound veggie tray (carrots & celery): $.84 (down 6.4%)
    12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.35 (up 11.8%)

Regional Averages
AFBF analysis revealed regional differences in the cost of the meal. The cost for the classic meal was the most affordable in the South at $56.81, followed by the Northeast at $57.36, the Midwest at $58.90, and then a significant jump in the West at $67.05. The expanded meal (classic meal plus boneless ham, Russet potatoes and green beans) was the most affordable in the South at $81.07, the Northeast at $81.37, the Midwest at $83.04, and least affordable in the West at $93.33.