Friday March 21 Ag News

Rural Mainstreet Economy: Solid Job Growth, Weak Farm Income

For the 18th time in the past 19 months, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below the 50.0 reading in March, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Overall: The region’s overall reading for March increased to a weak 41.1 from February’s 38.0. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“The economic outlook for 2025 farm income remains weak according to bank CEOs. However, farm commodity prices have recently improved, but not enough for profitability among a high share of producers,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Approximately 62.9% of bankers expect 2025 farm income to be down from 2024’s weak farm income. Only 3.7% of bank CEOs predict 2025 farm income to expand from 2024’s level.

Farming and ranch land prices: For the 10th time in the past 11 months, farmland prices were below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price index fell to 38.9 from 40.0 in February. “Elevated interest rates and higher input costs, along with below breakeven prices for a high share of grain farmers in the region, have put downward pressure on ag land prices,” said Goss.

The overwhelming majority, or 85.0% of bankers support the continuation of the 2017 tax cuts on individuals and corporations with 25.7% of backers pushing for a cut in the corporate income tax rate from the current 21% to 15%.

According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2025, compared to the first month of 2024, fell from $1.1 billion in 2024 to $964.3 million in 2025 for a decline of 13.9%. Mexico began 2025 as the top destination for ag exports, accounting for 44.8% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.

Only 7.5% of bankers support returning to January 2025 tariff levels on Canada, China and Mexico. Approximately 70.4% of bankers support the Administration taking a more flexible approach to tariffs.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index rose to a very weak 20.8 from February’s 18.2. “This is the 19th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input prices, tighter credit conditions and weak farm grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Below are the state reports:
Nebraska: The Nebraska Rural Mainstreet Index for March sank to 32.6 from February’s 37.0. The state’s farmland price index for March fell to 36.4 from February’s 39.3. Nebraska’s new hiring index improved to 49.1 from 42.2 in February. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, Nebraska exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2025, compared to January 2024, fell by $10.9 million for a decline of 8.7%. Mexico was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 43.0% of January Nebraska agriculture and livestock exports

Iowa: March’s RMI for the state improved to a weak 39.2 from 32.8 in February. Iowa’s farmland price index for March sank to 33.6 from 38.1 in February. Iowa’s new hiring index for March soared to 55.7 from February’s 40.8. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, Iowa exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2025, compared to January 2024, fell by $62.2 million for a decline of 37.3%. Mexico was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 77.4% of January Iowa agriculture and livestock exports.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.



Nebraska Cattlemen Statement on Brand Bill Amendment 638

This week, LB646 – Provide for exempt feedlots under the Livestock Brand Act, which was introduced and prioritized by Sen. Teresa Ibach (LD 44), advanced from the Agriculture Committee to the full Legislature on a 6-0-2 vote with amendment 638 (AM638). In response to the advancement of LB646 with AM638, Nebraska Cattlemen released the following statement:

“In accordance with Nebraska Cattlemen’s policy, the association opposed LB646 as introduced because the bill aimed to simply exempt one sector of the industry from inspection. From LB646’s introduction to its advancement out of committee, Senator Ibach and members of the Agriculture Committee ensured NC had a seat at the table to express our member’s concerns and advocate for changes. NC staff and leadership have been engaged every step of the way.

AM638 contains provisions NC requested including clarity of satisfactory evidence of ownership upon entering a grow yard or proposed new category of exempt feedlots (EFL), quarterly audits of proposed EFLs, and modifications to brand renewal fees.

This is an important issue to all sectors of the membership of Nebraska Cattlemen, and we remain committed to working with Senator Ibach toward a solution that could be acceptable to the membership as we work to modernize brand laws in Nebraska.”

BACKGROUND
On February 4, 2025, Nebraska Cattlemen announced its policy priorities for the first half of the 109th Legislative Session. NC stated it opposed LB 646 as introduced which would exempt registered feedlots from brand inspection in Nebraska. Following NC policy, the board gave direction to work on amendments to strengthen the bill, modernize brand inspection in Nebraska, and see fees reflective of services provided to different sectors of the industry.

The Nebraska Cattlemen Board of Directors will meet on April 1, 2025, where they will take an official position on AM638. NC’s official position has not changed and will not change without direction and an official vote from the Board of Directors.



Commercial Red Meat Production Down 7 Percent from Last Year

Commercial red meat production for the United States totaled 4.23 billion pounds in February, down 7 percent from the 4.55 billion pounds produced in February 2024.

Beef production, at 2.02 billion pounds, was 7 percent below the previous year. Cattle slaughter totaled 2.32 million head, down 11 percent from February 2024. The average live weight was up 48 pounds from the previous year, at 1,432 pounds.

Veal production totaled 2.0 million pounds, 43 percent below February a year ago. Calf slaughter totaled 11,200 head, down 43 percent from February 2024. The average live weight was up 2 pounds from last year, at 314 pounds.

Pork production totaled 2.20 billion pounds, down 7 percent from the previous year. Hog slaughter totaled 10.2 million head, down 7 percent from February 2024. The average live weight was up 1 pound from the previous year, at 291 pounds.

Lamb and mutton production, at 10.5 million pounds, was down 3 percent from February 2024. Sheep slaughter totaled 169,000 head, 2 percent below last year. The average live weight was 123 pounds, down 1 pound from February a year ago.

Production by State   million lbs - % Feb '24
Nebraska .......:               589.9             90       
Iowa ..............:               704.7             87       
Kansas ...........:               443.8             98       

January to February 2025 commercial red meat production was 9.12 billion pounds, down 2 percent from 2024. Accumulated beef production was down 1 percent from last year, veal was down 40 percent, pork was down 3 percent from last year, and lamb and mutton production was down slightly.



Secretary Naig Invites Iowans to Celebrate Iowa Ag Week March 24-31

Gov. Kim Reynolds has proclaimed March 24-31 as Iowa Agriculture Week, and Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig is inviting every Iowan to participate in the statewide celebration. The weeklong celebration highlights agriculture’s many significant contributions to our state’s economy and way of life. In addition, Iowans are encouraged to identify volunteer and service opportunities to further underscore agriculture’s positive impact in our communities.  

“Agriculture touches the life of every Iowan, every day – from the food we eat and the clothes we wear to the fuel in our automobiles. Agriculture powers our economy, employs nearly 1 in every 5 Iowans, and is the backbone of our rural communities,” said Secretary Naig. “I invite every Iowan to join the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship in celebrating Iowa Ag Week. For those who are able, I encourage you to explore opportunities to volunteer your time and talents to support a cause or organization that is important to you. This is just another way the Iowa agriculture community can show how much we care about our neighbors.”

Celebrate Iowa Agriculture During #IowaAgWeek
Iowans can celebrate Iowa Ag Week by engaging in any of these activities or come up with their own unique ideas:
    Organize a day of giving, volunteering or a community service project
    Hold a fundraiser benefiting an agriculture-focused non-profit organization (e.g., 4-H, FFA, young and beginning farmer groups and/or food security initiatives)
    Plan a lunchtime potluck for your coworkers
    Visit ChooseIowa.com to find a local farmer, small business or farm store to purchase Iowa grown, raised, and made food, beverages, or ag products

Secretary Naig and the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship will be celebrating Iowa Ag Week in the following ways:

Monday, March 24: Service
    Secretary Naig and Department employees volunteer at the Food Bank of Iowa.

Tuesday, March 25: Next Generation
    Secretary Naig participates in Read Across Iowa at an elementary school and speaks with middle school students about careers and opportunities within agriculture.

Wednesday, March 26: Achievement and Celebration
    Secretary Naig visits farms, tours conservation practices and provides remarks at the 37th Annual Celebration of Agriculture Dinner in Cedar Rapids.

Thursday, March 27: Legacy
    Secretary Naig provides remarks at the annual Iowa Master Farmers Association awards ceremony and the Iowa Women in Agriculture reception.

Friday, March 28: Resilience
    Secretary Naig visits farms and communities recovering from 2024 severe weather outbreaks, tours a flood mitigation levee repair project, and visits a farm owned by a Choose Iowa member.

Monday, March 31: Leadership
    Secretary Naig and the Department host the annual Iowa Ag Leaders Dinner, honoring statewide community, conservation and youth development leaders.

For a recap of all the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship’s Iowa Ag Week activities, follow the Department’s Facebook page and X account. Follow the hashtag #IowaAgWeek on social media platforms for ag facts, event photos and stories from Iowa farm families.



USGC Brings Moroccan Delegation to Iowa For Aquaculture Training And Expo

Last week, the U.S. Grains Council (USGC) escorted a team of Moroccan aquaculture sector stakeholders to attend Aquaculture 2025, the world’s largest aqua industry event, and participate in training courses at Iowa State University (ISU) as part of the Council’s plan to develop demand for U.S. feed grains in Morocco.

“The conference featured the latest advancements and technologies in aquaculture and our delegation learned a lot from the technical workshops and sessions to help improve their own operations in Morocco,” said Mohamed Salah Bouthour, USGC deputy regional director for Africa. “The trade show, in combination with the excellent courses hosted by ISU, will enhance the efficiency of the Moroccan aquaculture industry and drive interest in adding U.S. corn and distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS) to fish diets.”

In addition to the Moroccan team, USGC Regional Consultant Carlos Maya brought a group of feed buyers and aquaculture nutritionists from Colombia and Ecuador to the conference to provide additional information about the quality and availability of U.S. feed grains.

After the convention, Bouthour and USGC Regional Consultant Dr. Mustapha El Youssoufi led the group to the ISU Kent Feed Mill and Grain Science Complex, where they spent the next three days attending lectures and gaining hands-on training experience.

The first day included an overview of how aquaculture feed is produced, the benefits of incorporating nutritious additives like DDGS and advancing mixing and batching processes for feed.

Later sessions focused on maintaining quality though proper storage systems, optimizing feed mill operation management and how DDGS are processed and handled by ethanol facilities.

Outside the classroom, the delegation also visited an aquaculture farm using cutting edge recirculatory technology to produce environmentally responsible seafood and visited ISU’s dairy, poultry, turkey and swine teaching facilities.

“Each of our participants expressed their interest in the tools, technologies and nutritional information presented during the training courses and it will have a positive impact on the growth and development of the Moroccan aquaculture sector,” Bouthour said. “The segments, focused on the benefits of U.S. corn co-products and how to implement them, have the potential to greatly improve the health and efficiency of Moroccan seafood.”



USDA Update on Progress of Five-Pronged Strategy to Combat Avian Flu and Lower Egg Prices

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins hosted a stakeholder update Thursday to provide the first progress report on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) five-pronged strategy to combat highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and lower egg prices. Less than a month after the plan’s rollout, USDA reports significant advancements across all five areas.

“Egg prices are falling, farmers are getting the relief they need, and we are seeing meaningful progress in the fight against avian flu,” said Secretary Rollins. “USDA is making targeted investments and driving innovation to keep our food supply strong and affordable —delivering real results for American families and producers.”

Since February 26, wholesale egg prices have dropped nearly 50%. The New York wholesale egg price, which peaked at $8.53 per dozen, has steadily declined to $4.08 as of March 19. While seasonal Easter demand may cause fluctuations, the downward trend underscores the effectiveness of USDA’s approach.

Progress on USDA’s Five-Pronged Strategy

Strengthening Biosecurity Measures
USDA has expanded biosecurity assessments to commercial poultry producers nationwide, prioritizing egg-laying facilities in top-producing states. More than 130 facilities have undergone assessments in 2025, with 38 assessments completed last week alone.

To help prevent further outbreaks, USDA now offers two free, voluntary biosecurity assessments: one focused on wildlife risk mitigation and another on general biosecurity improvements. Additionally, all farms affected by HPAI must complete a biosecurity audit before restocking flocks. USDA is covering up to 75% of costs for the highest-risk biosecurity improvements.

Expediting Relief for Farmers to Accelerate Repopulation
To provide financial relief and support faster repopulation, USDA increased the indemnity rate for layer hens by 2.41x on February 27, raising compensation to $16.94 per bird.

Reducing Regulatory Burdens to Expand Supply & Lower Prices
USDA is working with FDA and industry stakeholders to evaluate solutions that can help expand supply safely, minimize burdens on farmers and consumers, and promote innovative approaches to disease management. The Department continues to explore ways to reduce the extent of depopulations while maintaining food safety standards.

Investing $100 Million in Avian Flu Research & Vaccine Development
USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) launched a $100 million funding opportunity, in consultation with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), to support research into HPAI prevention, therapeutics, and potential vaccines. In consultation with HHS, USDA will also explore prevention strategies to promote biosecurity in agriculture and in humans, to ensure limited impact on American farmers. Funding will be awarded through a competitive process, with priority given to projects that:
    Develop novel therapeutics to address HPAI in poultry,
    Advance research on avian influenza risk pathways to improve biosecurity and outbreak response, and
    Explore vaccine candidates to protect poultry while minimizing trade disruptions.

USDA APHIS will host a webinar on April 1 at 12 p.m. ET that will provide details for interested applicants.

Exploring Temporary Import-Export Adjustments to Stabilize Supply
USDA has secured new egg import commitments from Turkey and South Korea, with discussions ongoing with other countries to further expand supply in the short term. Additionally, U.S. shell egg exports have declined by 8%, ensuring more eggs remain in the domestic market to help stabilize prices.

USDA continues working closely with HHS, CDC, NIH, and FDA to coordinate a science-based response to HPAI and remains committed to regular public updates on progress.



ASA Endorses Bipartisan PACE Act

Last week, U.S. Sens. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) reintroduced the Producer and Agricultural Credit Enhancement (PACE) Act, which modernizes Farm Service Agency loan limits to ensure they reflect the present cost of production and provide robust access to capital for producers. The American Soybean Association endorsed the bill, which serves as marker legislation for the farm bill.

Specifically, the PACE Act:
    Increases loan limitations for the FSA Direct and Guaranteed Loan Programs for Farm Operating Loans and Farm Ownership Loans by the following amounts:
        Direct Operating: Increase from $400,000 to $750,000
        Guaranteed Operating: Increase from $2.25 million to $2.6 million
        Direct Ownership: Increase from $600,000 to $850,000
        Guaranteed Ownership: Increase from $2.25 million to $3 million
    Changes the inflation benchmark for guaranteed ownership loans to the National Ag Statistics Service Agriculture Land Values survey.
    Indexes the Direct Farm Ownership Down Payment Program to align with current loan limitations, helping support beginning farmers and ranchers to finance the purchase of a family farm.
    Increases loan limitations for the FSA microloan program from $50,000 to $100,000.
    Directs FSA to promulgate rules allowing distressed borrowers to refinance guaranteed loans into direct loans.



EU Holds on First Round of Retaliatory Tariffs
ASA Newsletter

An EU trade spokesperson said in a statement today that the bloc has postponed its first wave of retaliatory tariffs, initially set to go into effect the end of this month, and now aims to have both sets of retaliatory duties on U.S. products come into effect mid-April when a second wave was also set to potentially take effect. That second traunch covers a larger list of products, many of them agricultural. Whole soybeans were on the retaliatory list and could come under fire in April.

March 12, President Trump issued across-the-board tariffs at a rate of 25% on imported steel and aluminum, ending the EU’s previous tariff exemption for those products and increasing aluminum tariffs. The duties were levied under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and are in addition to previous tariffs levied against China, Canada, and Mexico under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Shortly thereafter, the European Union released a list of U.S. export products it could hit with retaliatory tariffs, including whole beans. Implementation was pending consultation among EU member states and stakeholders.

To recap where things stand with other U.S. export countries, China has retaliated against the U.S. including a 10% tariff against U.S. soy. And, U.S. soybean exports (whole beans, soybean meal, and soybean oil) are also on the target list for potential retaliation under a second retaliatory strike pending from Canada. The next tariff action from the U.S. is expected April 2, when President Trump has stated that “reciprocal tariffs are coming.” It remains unseen whether tariffs will go into effect on that date or if there will be an announcement with a later implementation date for tariffs.



USDA Announces Dr. Jaye L. Hamby as NIFA Director

Thursday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced the appointment of Dr. Jaye L. Hamby as the Director of the National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA). As Director, Dr. Hamby will lead USDA’s efforts to advance agricultural innovation, community outreach, and fostering the next generation of agricultural leaders.

“Dr. Hamby’s deep-rooted experience in agriculture—from hands-on work in farming to decades of leadership in research and innovation—makes him the ideal choice to lead NIFA,” said U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins. “His commitment to advancing agricultural research, extension, and education will help drive solutions to the industry’s most pressing challenges and ensure the continued strength and global competitiveness of U.S. agriculture.”

Dr. Hamby, a Tennessee native, grew up on his family’s cow-calf operation and developed a deep connection to agriculture through 4-H and FFA, eventually serving as a national FFA officer. He then earned a bachelor’s degree in agricultural education from the University of Tennessee before completing his master’s and doctorate degrees in agricultural education at Oklahoma State University. Over the course of his career, he has directed hundreds of research efforts specializing in concept testing, product marketing, value driver analysis, and following market trends and strategies to support agricultural producers.