Thursday April 10 USDA WASDE

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
Office of the Chief Economist
Agricultural Marketing Service
Farm Service Agency
Economic Research Service
Foreign Agricultural Service
Thursday April 10, 2025

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for greater exports, reduced feed and residual use, and smaller ending stocks. Feed and residual use is cut 25 million bushels to 5.8 billion based on disappearance during the December-February quarter as indicated in the March 31 Grain Stocks report. Exports are raised 100 million bushels reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date and relatively competitive U.S. prices. With no other use changes, ending stocks are down 75 million bushels from last month to 1.5 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 0.4 million tons lower to 1.495 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, virtually unchanged trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is raised, with increases for the EU, Tanzania, and Honduras partially offset by declines for Moldova, Cambodia, and Kenya. EU corn is higher reflecting larger crops for Poland, Croatia, France, and Germany that are partially offset by reductions for Romania and Bulgaria.

Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include higher projected corn exports for the United States and a reduction for Pakistan. Corn imports are raised for the EU, Mexico, Turkey, and Peru but lowered for Vietnam. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher relative to last month, reflecting increases for South Korea and Pakistan. Global corn ending stocks, at 287.7 million tons, are down 1.3 million.

WHEAT: This month’s supply and demand outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, slightly smaller domestic use, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are raised on higher projected imports, up 10 million bushels to 150 million, with increases for Hard Red Spring (HRS), Durum, White, and Hard Red Winter (HRW). At this level, imports would be the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use, based primarily on the March NASS Prospective Plantings report. Feed and residual use is unchanged at 120 million bushels, but there are offsetting by-class revisions based on the March 31 NASS Grain Stocks report. Exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million with reductions to HRS and HRW. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 27 million bushels to 846 million, 22 percent above the previous year. The season average farm price is unchanged at $5.50 per bushel.

The 2024/25 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller supplies, consumption, and exports and larger ending stocks. Supplies are lowered 0.8 million tons to 1,065.9 million primarily on reduced production estimates for Saudi Arabia and the EU, as well as lower beginning stock estimates for Uzbekistan and Israel. World consumption is forecast 1.4 million tons lower to 805.2 million, primarily on lower food, seed, and industrial use for India and China. Projected 2024/25 global trade is cut 1.3 million tons to 206.8 million, mostly on lower export forecasts for Russia, Australia, and the EU that are only partly offset by increases for Canada and Ukraine. Exports for 2024/25 are expected to be 7 percent lower than the previous year. Projected 2024/25 world ending stocks are increased 0.6 million tons to 260.7 million as higher stocks for India, Russia, the United States, and the EU are partly offset by a decrease for China. Global stocks for 2024/25 are now three percent below the previous year and the lowest since 2015/16.

OILSEEDS: The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2024/25 includes higher imports and crush, and lower ending stocks. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 4.42 billion on higher soybean meal domestic use and soybean oil exports. Soybean oil exports are increased based on export commitments. Soybean oil for biofuel is lowered based on pace to date. However, stronger use is forecast for the last part of the marketing year due to tariffs impacting imports of other biofuel feedstocks, like used cooking oil. With soybean exports unchanged and imports increased slightly, soybean ending stocks are lowered 5 million bushels to 375 million.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $9.95 per bushel. The soybean meal price is lowered $10 to $300 per short ton and the soybean oil price is raised 2 cents to 45 cents per pound.

Global 2024/25 soybean supply and demand forecasts include higher beginning stocks, lower production, and higher exports, crush, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised 2.7 million tons mainly on a revised 2023/24 crop for Brazil. After a review of 2024 disappearance data, Brazil’s 2023/24 production is raised 1.5 million tons to 154.5 million.

Global soybean production for 2024/25 is lowered 0.2 million tons on lower production for Bolivia partly offset by higher output for South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, and the European Union. Global soybean crush is raised 2.0 million tons to 354.8 million on higher crush for Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and the United States. Ample global soybean meal supplies, lower prices, and lower supply of alternative oilseed meals, led to increased use of soybean meal consumption globally.

Despite increased soybean crush, global vegetable oil production for 2024/25 is lowered 0.9 million tons to 228.1 million as gains in soybean oil production are offset by lower palm oil production. Palm oil production is reduced 1.3 million tons to 78.2 million on lower output for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.

Global soybean exports are raised 0.2 million tons to 182.1 million. Exports are raised for Canada and Nigeria but lowered for Ukraine. Global soybean ending stocks are raised 1.1 million tons to 122.5 million, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil and the EU.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: For 2025, total red meat and poultry production is lowered. Pork production is lowered on reduced slaughter and weights. The current outlook for hog slaughter in 2025 reflects the information provided in the March 27 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that showed lower pig crops than previously reported for 2024 and indications of lower farrowings through much of 2025. Beef production is raised as heavier dressed weights and higher cow and bull slaughter are partially offset by lower steer and heifer slaughter. Broiler production is raised on improved returns during the second half of the year. Turkey production is lowered on recent hatchery and production data. Egg production is lowered on recent layer inventory and production data.

Beef exports are lowered for 2025 based on recent trade data, as well as newly imposed tariffs and non-tariff barriers faced by U.S. beef exports to China. Beef imports are lowered based on higher tariff rates for foreign suppliers for the remainder of the year. Pork exports are lowered from the previous month due to the latest trade data, increased tariff rates for U.S. pork shipments to China, and price competition from other major exporting countries. Broiler exports are lowered on less competitive U.S. prices during the second half of the year. Turkey exports are lowered on recent trade data and reduced domestic production. Egg imports are raised on recent trade data.

Cattle prices are raised on reported data through the first quarter and expected robust  demand for the remainder of the year. Hog prices are lowered, with slightly higher reported first-quarter prices more than offset by weaker export demand for the remainder of the year. Broiler prices are raised on recent reported data through the first quarter of the year and continued strength in domestic demand. Turkey prices are also raised on reported prices through the first quarter of the year and the lower expected supplies for the year. Eggs are lowered on recent prices and the expectation that the layer flock will recover over the remainder of the year.

The milk production forecast for 2025 is raised on larger cow inventories and slightly higher milk per cow. Imports are lower on both a fat and skim-solids basis, primarily due to additional duties placed on imported dairy products, in particular imports of butter fats and milk protein products. Exports on a skim-solid basis are reduced, primarily on lower shipments of dried skim milk products and whey products. Exports on a fat basis are raised on higher expected shipments of butter.

Prices for butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey are all lowered for 2025 on recent prices and higher expected milk supplies. Class III prices are lowered on lower cheese and whey prices. Class IV prices are lowered on lower butter and NDM prices. The all milk price is projected lower to $21.10 per cwt.