Friday October 17 Ag News - RMI Hits 5 year Low - NeFB Sends Letter to Congress - IA Best Breaded Pork Tenderloin Announced - Fertilizer Prices Swing Wide - Ethanol Production Up, Stocks Down - and more!

 Rural Mainstreet Economy Falls to Five-Year Low

For the eighth time in 2025, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral 50.0, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Overall: The region’s overall reading for October fell to 34.6, its lowest level since May 2020, from 38.5 in September. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Weak agriculture commodity prices for grain producers continue to dampen economic activity in the 10-state region. While tariffs are producing higher economic volatility, 72% of bank CEOs gauge President Trump’s approach toward Chinese trade as ‘about right.’ This is almost unchanged from April, when the same question was asked,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farming and ranch land prices: For the 17th time in the past 18 months, farmland prices slumped below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price dropped to 37.0 from 45.8 in September.  “Elevated long-term interest rates, higher input costs and below breakeven grain prices put downward pressure on farmland prices,” said Goss.

Farm loan delinquency rates rose from a very low 1.1% in June of this year to 1.6% this month.

Approximately, 84.6% of bankers support President Trump’s calling for $10 billion in support to U.S. farmers. “Current gain prices have pushed a high share of farmers’ net cash flow into negative territory. While it will not cure the problem, it will help,” said Goss.

According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first seven months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, fell from $6.9 billion in 2024 to $6.2 billion in 2025 for a decline of 10.3%. Regional exports of agriculture and livestock to China for the first seven months of 2025 sank to $131.9 million, from $915.4 million for the same period in 2024, for a downturn of 85.7%.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index increased to a very weak 18.8 from 15.2 in September. “This is the 26th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input costs, tighter credit conditions, low farm commodity prices and market volatility from tariffs are having negative impacts on purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Banking: The October loan volume index climbed to 72.0 from September’s 70.0. The checking deposit index fell to 52.0 from 54.0 in September. The index for certificates of deposits (CDs) and other savings instruments dropped to 50.1 from 60.0 in September. Federal Reserve interest rate policies have boosted CD purchases above growth neutral for 35 straight months.

Below are the state reports:
Nebraska: The state’s Rural Mainstreet Index for October increased to 39.6 from 38.5 in September. The state’s farmland price index for October rose to 48.4 from 45.8 in September. Nebraska’s new hiring index climbed to 49.2 from September’s 48.0. Nebraska’s year-to-date exports of agricultural goods and livestock expanded to $754.7 million in 2025, up from $510.8 million in the same period of 2024, for a gain of 47.8%. In sharp contrast, Nebraska farm exports to China plunged 92.4% over the same period, highlighting the dispute with this important trading partner.

Iowa: October’s RMI for the state climbed to 37.7 from 30.3 in September. Iowa’s farmland price index for October declined to 43.0 from September’s 45.5. Iowa’s new hiring index for October increased to 46.7 from 41.2 in September. Iowa’s year-to-date exports of agricultural goods and livestock reached $1.1 billion in 2025, up 19.4% from $908.2 million in the same period of 2024, according to data from the ITA. This was in sharp contrast to Chinese exports, which plunged 81.1% over the same period, highlighting a stark decline in that key market.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.



Nebraska Farm Bureau Calls for Strategic Policy Changes and Immediate Relief to Stabilize Agriculture

Nebraska Farm Bureau (NEFB) sent a letter to Nebraska’s Congressional delegation urging support for key policy initiatives to address the mounting economic pressures facing Nebraska farmers and ranchers. The letter also calls for support of a comprehensive aid package.

“Nebraska farm and ranch families remain deeply dedicated to hard work and are determined to weather the current economic storm as we always have, with perseverance,” said Mark McHargue, president of Nebraska Farm Bureau. “But today’s economic headwinds have largely been created by government policy, and that requires a government response.”

The letter outlines several long-standing Farm Bureau policy priorities that could help alleviate economic strain, including:
    Fair and enforceable trade agreements that open markets and ensure reciprocal access for U.S. products.
    Policy support for biofuels, including year-round sales of E15 and other renewable fuels.
    Restoration of whole milk in schools, giving children access to nutritious U.S. dairy products.
    Protection of interstate commerce by opposing and challenging current and future state laws that undermine market consistency, competition, and transparency.
    Investigation into pricing structures for major agricultural inputs to address market imbalances that artificially inflate production costs beyond normal market fluctuations, paired with stronger enforcement of laws and regulations that ensure transparency and fairness in agricultural markets.
    Prioritization of American-grown fruits and vegetables in federal and institutional purchasing programs.

While these policy measures are essential for long-term stability, McHargue emphasized that immediate assistance is also needed to keep farm families afloat.

“We support authorization of a ‘bridge’ payment to farmers before the end of 2025,” McHargue said. “These payments must be robust enough to address sector-wide gaps and provide meaningful support as the federal government works to recalibrate trade strategies, stabilize prices, and strengthen key market relationships.”

McHargue noted that Nebraska farmers prefer to rely on the marketplace rather than government assistance. “We do not make this ask lightly and understand that continuous ad hoc assistance to U.S. farmers is not sustainable. But when poor economic conditions are in part caused by government policies and global pressures, it becomes the responsibility of the federal government to respond,” said McHargue.

NEFB is calling on Nebraska’s Congressional delegation to support these measures to provide both short-term relief and long-term policy solutions that will restore economic stability to the state’s agricultural sector.



STACKING RISK TOOLS: PRF, ANNUAL FORAGE, AND LRP 
- Shannon Sand, NE Extension Educator 

For livestock producers, managing risk often means using more than one tool. Three insurance programs Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage (PRF); Annual Forage (AF); and Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) can be good options to complement each other to protect both feed supply and livestock value.

PRF insurance helps offset the financial impact of below-average rainfall during the growing season. It’s based on a rainfall index, not actual forage yield, but it can provide timely payments when drought limits grazing potential.

Annual Forage insurance covers forage crops planted annually for feed or grazing, such as small grains or cover crops. It offers protection against precipitation shortfalls during specific growing seasons, making it especially useful for diversified or integrated systems.

Livestock Risk Protection provides price protection for cattle, and swine. It works much like a put option allowing producers to set a price floor for their livestock while still benefiting if markets improve.

Used together, these tools create a more complete risk management plan: PRF and AF help stabilize feed resources, while LRP protects market value. The goal isn’t to eliminate risk entirely but to manage it in a way that improves cash flow and business stability through variable weather and market cycles.

Producers can work with an insurance agent familiar with RMA programs to find the right mix for their operation and budget.




Nebraska-developed map highlights U.S. water rights systems, informs governance

A new thematic map depicting primary water rights systems across the U.S. has been developed by a collaborative team from the Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute, the National Drought Mitigation Center and the Department of Agricultural Economics, all at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln. 

The innovative tool provides a clearer understanding of the variability of surface water and groundwater rights systems, which are crucial for effective water management and policy development by researchers, policymakers and landowners alike.

Water rights systems provide legal boundaries for water management and are essential to understand when developing and evaluating policies and practices around water governance such as water transfers, irrigation limits, interstate water management and drought adaptation.

The map illustrates that western states generally adhere to the prior appropriation system, which prioritizes water rights seniority and is typically independent of land ownership. In contrast, eastern states largely follow common law principles, granting landowners the right to use water that touches their land.

This valuable tool is expected to inform future research and enhance comprehension of how water rights systems impact decisions related to drought adaptation and broader water governance strategies. The work was funded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of the Chief Economist.

View the map online https://go.unl.edu/water-rights.



Hometown Heroes Named Home of 2025 Iowa’s Best Breaded Pork Tenderloin
    
The Iowa Pork Producers Association (IPPA) has crowned Hometown Heroes of Grinnell as the winner of the 2025 Iowa’s Best Breaded Pork Tenderloin Contest. Located at 908 Main Street in downtown Grinnell, Iowa, this sports-grill-style restaurant is a gathering spot for community, good food, and local pride.

Owner and executive chef Paul Durr said the recognition is both humbling and exciting for his team. “We’ve sold so many tenderloins since the contest started, it’s been incredible,” Durr said. “Our staff has worked so hard, and the community support has just blown us away. We’re so proud to win this award.”

Phil Carey, retired chef and culinary instructor and one of the judges in the 2025 contest, praised the winning tenderloin in strong terms: “Hometown Heroes was one of the first ones that we judged, and as we (the judging panel) left, we agreed that this one would be hard to beat. The pork was tender and juicy; it was evenly pounded and well-seasoned… the pork was the star of the show! It was made complete by being served hot on a toasted bun. It’s a great sandwich!”

Opened in 2019 and owned by Paul and Kalyn Durr, along with partners Shannon and Todd Reding, Hometown Heroes blends comfort food with hometown spirit. Paul serves as executive chef and director of operations, with Kalyn overseeing marketing. Alex Phillips is the general manager handling day-to-day operations. The restaurant is part of the Prairie Hospitality Group, which also owns Prairie Canary, a farm-to-table establishment in Grinnell.

More than just a place to eat, Hometown Heroes is designed with the local community in mind. Inside, one wall is dedicated to athletes from nearby high schools and colleges who now represent the region on bigger stages. Other walls pay tribute to first responders, military service members, and those who have served the community in various “hero” roles. The restaurant is casual and energetic with a menu that leans toward bar/family comfort food: wings, burgers, sandwiches, and of course, the now celebrated pork tenderloin.

The Iowa Pork Producers Association is thrilled to officially present the coveted Iowa’s Best Tenderloin Award for 2025 at Hometown Heroes today at noon! They will take home a $500 cash prize, a plaque, and a banner to showcase their achievement.

The 2025 runner-up is The 1854 in Gilbertville, Iowa. They'll receive a $250 prize along with a plaque from the IPPA. Earlier this month, we also recognized several other outstanding finalists, who will receive top-five plaques in alphabetical order:
    Dexfield Diner & Pub – Redfield
    Sugar’s Lounge & Diner – Council Bluffs
    Walker’s – Salix 

This tenderloin contest celebrates Iowa restaurants that feature hand-breaded or battered pork tenderloin as a staple on their menu. To qualify, establishments must be open year-round. Winners are unveiled every October in honor of National Pork Month, which pays tribute to the hard work and dedication of America’s pork producers.

Dairy Sweet in Dunlap was the 2024 winner, making it the first restaurant to win the title twice. 



Urea Retail Price Down 5%; Anhydrous, DAP Prices Up Significantly

Three fertilizers saw significant retail price moves in opposite directions during the second week of October 2025, according to sellers surveyed by DTN. Once again, prices for half of the eight major fertilizers were up from last month and the other half were down. Three fertilizers had sizeable price moves, which DTN designates as anything 5% or more, with two of those moves higher and the third lower.

The two fertilizers with significantly higher prices were DAP and anhydrous. DAP was 7% more expensive compared to last month, with an average price of $921 per ton. Anhydrous was again 6% higher compared to last month, with an average price of $814/ton. Prices for two other fertilizers were slightly higher. MAP had an average price of $922/ton, and UAN28 was $419/ton.

Urea led the four fertilizers with lower prices than last month. The nitrogen fertilizer was 5% less expensive compared to last month with an average price of $601/ton. Prices for the three remaining fertilizers were slightly lower than last month. Potash had an average price of $485/ton, 10-34-0 $666/ton and UAN32 $466/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was $0.65/lb.N, anhydrous $0.50/lb.N, UAN28 $0.75/lb.N and UAN32 $0.73/lb.N.

All eight fertilizers are now higher in price compared to one year earlier. The last holdout, potash, is now 8% higher. 10-34-0 is 13% more expensive, MAP is 15% higher, anhydrous is 18% more expensive, urea is 24% higher, DAP is 25% more expensive and both UAN28 and UAN32 are 33% higher looking back to last year.



Weekly Ethanol Production for 10/10/2025

According to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association for the week ending October 10, ethanol production nudged up 0.3% to a 5-week high of 1.07 million b/d, equivalent to 45.11 million gallons daily. Output was 3.1% higher than the same week last year and 4.2% above the three-year average for the week. The four-week average ethanol production rate decreased 0.5% to 1.04 million b/d, equivalent to an annualized rate of 16.00 billion gallons (bg).

Ethanol stocks inched down 0.4% to 22.6 million barrels. Yet, stocks were 1.6% more than the same week last year and 4.1% above the three-year average. Inventories thinned across all regions except the East Coast (PADD 1) and Rocky Mountains (PADD 4).

The volume of gasoline supplied to the U.S. market, a measure of implied demand, slumped 5.2% to a 19-week low of 8.46 million b/d (129.97 bg annualized). Demand was 1.9% less than a year ago and 3.3% below the three-year average.

Refiner/blender net inputs of ethanol picked up by 2.6% to a 4-week high of 915,000 b/d, equivalent to 14.07 bg annualized. Net inputs were 0.3% more than year-ago levels and 0.4% above the three-year average.

Ethanol exports eased 21.7% to an estimated 108,000 b/d (4.5 million gallons/day). It has been more than a year since EIA indicated ethanol was imported.



Data Shows Farmers Risk Losing $7.5 Billion if EPA Does Not Reallocate RFS Small Refinery Exemptions
 
Clean Fuels Alliance America Thursday shared with EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin projections of the economic impact for U.S. soybean farmers and processors of EPA’s proposed supplemental “SRE reallocation volume” to the 2026 and 2027 RFS volumes. EPA is co-proposing to either fully (100%) or partially (50%) account for 2023-25 small refinery exemptions granted this year by adding a supplemental volume in 2026 and 2027. The agency is also taking comment on other volumes, including 0%.

“U.S. soybean farmers and processors could lose between $3.2 billion and $7.5 billion in crop value over the next two years if EPA does not completely reallocate recently exempted RFS volumes,” Clean Fuels writes in a letter to Zeldin. “With increased farm productivity, U.S. soybean growers are right now harvesting a projected 4.3 billion bushels of soybeans for the season worth $43 billion. And with more than $6 billion of investment, U.S. soybean processors are expected to crush a record 2.5 billion of those bushels next year. Facing retaliatory trade measures from China and growing global competition from countries like Argentina and Brazil, America’s farmers can not afford to lose the value that U.S. biomass-based diesel brings.”

Clean Fuels engaged World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services (WAEES) to provide EPA economic analysis of the co-proposed 100% and 50% reallocation supplemental volumes as well as a scenario with 0% reallocation.

WAEES’ analysis indicates that if EPA adopts the 50% reallocation proposal rather than complete (100%) reallocation, the results over the 2026 – 2027 timeframe will include:
    490 million gallons in lost biomass-based diesel production;
    $1.4 billion in lost soybean farm revenue; and
    a $1.8 billion drop in the value of soybean products to soybean crushers.

If EPA fails to reallocate any of the exempted volumes, WAEES’ analysis shows the results over the 2026 – 2027 timeframe will be considerably worse:
    1 billion gallons in lost biomass-based diesel production;
    $2.6 billion in lost soybean farm revenue; and
    a $4.9 billion drop in the value of soybean products to soybean crushers.

Kurt Kovarik, Clean Fuels’ Vice President of Federal Affairs, stated, “Clean Fuels urges EPA to quickly finalize the robust, timely RFS volumes it proposed in June and ensure they are not eroded by small refinery exemptions. U.S. biodiesel and renewable diesel production supports 10 percent of the value of every bushel of soybeans grown here. Supporting continued growth of U.S. biomass-based diesel is crucial right now to support American farmers and the agricultural economy.” 



National Women in Ag Study Launches

A just-launched national Women in Agriculture Study is a comprehensive effort to capture women’s voices from across all 50 states and Puerto Rico. The survey remains open through March 31 to gather insights from women working in production agriculture, agribusiness, education and advocacy, as well as from men and others in related fields who can offer perspectives on women’s roles in agriculture.

The aim of the study is to better understand the experiences, leadership pathways and future needs of women in agriculture. This study will help identify what’s working, where there are gaps, and how to strengthen engagement and support systems across agriculture. Optional follow-up interviews and focus groups will provide deeper exploration of leadership, mentorship, barriers and opportunities.

“More than a million women play vital roles in U.S. agriculture, accounting for 36% of our country’s farmers,” said American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall. “We want to make sure we’re clearing barriers and providing opportunities for them and understanding their perspectives is crucial. I encourage all women in agriculture and related fields to participate in this study, which will deepen understanding of their future needs.”

Findings will be shared at the AFBF-hosted International Year of the Woman Farmer ACE Summit in Washington, D.C., in June 2026. Results will inform leadership development, outreach strategies and systems that strengthen support for women in agriculture nationwide.

The survey is open to individuals age 18 and older who are involved in or connected to agriculture, forestry or life sciences, including related industries such as aquaculture, horticulture, beekeeping and more. This study is sponsored by the American Farm Bureau Women’s Leadership Committee and is funded by CoBank and JBS.

Take the survey here https://www.fb.org/program/womens-leadership/national-women-in-agriculture-study (available in both English and Spanish).