Thursday January 29 Ag News - NAYI Applications Open - FLAGShip Scholarships Available - Naig on Competition in Agriculture - Ethanol Production Slightly Lower - Fertilizer Prices Inch Down - and more!

Figures don’t lie!
Alfredo DiCostanzo, Nebraska Extension Beef Systems Educator

Slowly but surely beef is overcoming the negative image wrongly ascribed by health professionals and others in years past. The implications of this trend for beef supply are noteworthy, particularly when the US cattle inventory is at an all-time low.

Demand for beef is also increasing in other countries, namely Mexico. Focusing on beef demand and supply in Mexico is important as Mexico exported, on average, 1.1 million head of feeder cattle to the US yearly between 2022 and 2024. This process has been interrupted by suspension of imports of feeder cattle (and other species) from Mexico due to the ongoing New World screwworm (NWSW) situation in that country.

In 2024, Mexico also exported 597 million lb of beef to the US (as of October 2025, Mexico had exported 567 million lb of beef to the US: 82% of all beef exported by Mexico). These figures are expressed as pounds of carcass weight equivalent. Using 701 lb carcass weight (average for cattle harvested in Mexico in 2025), beef exports to the US represent carcasses from 850,000 head of cattle imported to the US as beef trimmings and no-roll cuts.

Why such detailed focus on Mexican cattle inventory and harvest?

For 2025, USDA projected an inventory of nearly 12 million beef and dairy cows which delivered 8.7 million calves. Total harvest was projected at 7.1 million cattle of which 5.3 million head were steers and heifers.

Combined one-time feedlot capacity in the largest four feedlots in Mexico is at least 1 million head. Incidentally, the level of technology and sophistication at these feedlots is par with most corporate feedlots in the US. Furthermore, most of the larger feedlot firms own their own packing and fabrication plants or have arrangements to access plants. Most of the beef exported to the US is sourced from these plants.

Grain-fed cattle in Mexico are generally finished at a given weight not degree of finish endpoint; generally, 1,250 lb. Cattle are mostly received as yearlings weighing 600 or more lb. Feeding periods last 140 days.

At a turnover rate of 3x yearly these feedlots require 3.3 million incoming cattle yearly: 62% of the projected calf crop destined for slaughter.

Obviously, these four feedlots do not feed all the grain-fed cattle in Mexico, and a significant proportion of beef is derived from grass-finished cattle. Therefore, this analysis strongly suggests that domestic Mexican calf production simply cannot meet demand for growing cattle in feedlots or on pastures.

This analysis leads to three questions:

Firstly, if feeder cattle imports from Mexico would resume, would US cattle feeders have access to 1 million head coming from Mexico?

Secondly, considering the strong demand for feeder cattle by the Mexican feedlot sector, what incentives does Mexico have to effectively stop the flow of cattle originating from Central America, legally or illegally?

Lastly, extending the implications of the second question, how effective do you suspect are NWSW barriers in Mexico?



NDA OPENS APPLICATION PROCESS FOR 2026 NEBRASKA AG YOUTH INSTITUTE

The Nebraska Department of Agriculture (NDA) is currently accepting applications from high school juniors and seniors for the Nebraska Agricultural Youth Institute (NAYI). NAYI is one of Nebraska’s largest agriculture youth outreach events. This five-day program brings students together, offering networking opportunities with ag leaders and a chance to learn more about the industry, discover careers and make new friends. NDA helps sponsor and coordinate NAYI every year. This year’s theme is “Passion Meets Purpose.”

NAYI will be held at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s East Campus July 6–10, 2026. Current high school juniors and seniors interested in attending must apply online at www.nda.nebraska.gov/nayi. All applications must be submitted by April 15, 2026.

“NAYI is a long-standing tradition in Nebraska agriculture and a one-of-a-kind opportunity for high school students to connect with peers from around the state,” said NDA Director Sherry Vinton. “It is one of the best ways for students to learn more about Nebraska’s diverse agricultural industry and the hard-working people who help make our ag industry great.”

NAYI features motivational speakers, discussions on agricultural issues, career development, networking opportunities, leadership activities, a farm management game, a formal banquet and awards presentation, and a dance. In its 55th year, NAYI is the longest running agricultural youth program of its kind in the nation. More than 225 students attended NAYI last year.

NDA selects students to attend NAYI based on their leadership skills, interests and involvement in agriculture. Students attend NAYI free of charge due to generous donations from agricultural businesses, commodity groups and industry organizations. Space is limited. Those interested in helping sponsoring NAYI can visit https://nda.nebraska.gov/NAYIsponsors for more information.

NAYI is coordinated by the Nebraska Agricultural Youth Council, which is comprised of 21 college-aged students selected by NDA for their passion and interest in the ag industry. The Council’s purpose is to provide young Nebraskans with a better understanding of agriculture, including agricultural opportunities available to today’s youth. 



Scholarship Opportunity for Students: NeCGA FLAGship Program Applications Are Now Open!

The Nebraska Corn Growers Association (NeCGA) is excited to announce that scholarship applications are now open for Nebraska students pursuing higher education!

Students may apply for the NeCGA Future Leaders in Ag Scholarship Program (FLAGship Program), which awards up to five $2,000 scholarships to Nebraska high school seniors and college freshmen. Scholarships are available for students pursuing ag-related or non-ag-related degrees.

Through one application, students will also be considered for National Corn Growers Association scholarships, as well as several local Nebraska corn grower association scholarships.

All applications must be submitted by January 31, 2026, through the NCGA consolidated scholarship application link below.

To be considered for the scholarship, please complete the application by Friday, January 31, 2026.

Apply here: https://ncga.formstack.com/forms/ncgascholarship2026

For questions, contact Katherine Byrne at kbyrne@necga.org.



CAP Webinar: Agricultural Economic and Financial Outlook
Feb 12, 2026 12:00 PM 
Nathan Kauffman, Senior Vice President, Economist, and Omaha Branch Executive and Executive Director of the Center for Agriculture and the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Economic conditions in U.S. agriculture reflect a continuing divergence across sectors as livestock markets—particularly cattle—provide support while crop prices and margins remain under pressure. Elevated input costs, limited profit opportunities, and shifting credit conditions continue to shape producers’ decisions and industry prospects, placing increased focus on financial management, risk exposure, and balance sheet resilience.

The webinar will cover current economic and financial conditions for agriculture, trends in lending activity and financial position, and the outlook for interest costs and financial management for 2026.

Register for the webinar here: https://cap.unl.edu/webinars.

Miss the live webinar or want to review it again? Recordings are available — typically within 24 hours of the live webinar — in the archive section of the Center for Agricultural Profitability's webinar page, https://cap.unl.edu/webinars. 



Naig Leads Bipartisan, Multi-State Letter Emphasizing the Importance of Competition Across Agriculture

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig led a bipartisan, multi-state letter to the Surface Transportation Board (STB) urging a careful, thorough evaluation of the proposed merger between Union Pacific Railroad (UP) and Norfolk Southern (NS), while reinforcing the broader need to preserve and expand competition across the entire agricultural industry.

The letter was also signed by agriculture secretaries, directors, and commissioners from Minnesota, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Together, the group represents a wide range of agricultural and rural communities that rely on competitive markets and reliable infrastructure.

The leaders stressed that competition is the foundation of a strong agricultural economy, from access to inputs and transportation to processing, marketing, and global trade. While the letter addresses the specific proposed rail merger, the officials note it must be viewed as part of a broader focus on consolidation and competition throughout agriculture. Competition is critical at every stage of the value chain, and as consolidation continues across multiple segments of the agricultural economy, maintaining choice and competitive balance remains a priority for producers and agribusinesses alike.

“As representatives serving, promoting and protecting agriculture, we ask you to carefully evaluate the impact of additional consolidation in the nation’s freight railroad system. The proposed merger between the Union Pacific Railroad (UP) and Norfolk Southern (NS) raises important questions for America’s agricultural industry, which is uniquely reliant on a reliable, competitive, and resilient rail network.” 

They highlighted three primary focus points for the STB to consider:

Preserving competition and choice
Farmers and agribusinesses depend on competitive options to manage risk, control costs, and respond to changing markets. Reduced competition in any segment of the supply chain can have negative downstream effects across agriculture.

Ensuring reliable, resilient supply chains
Agricultural production is seasonal and time sensitive. Transportation reliability is critical to moving inputs and commodities efficiently and supporting rural economies.

Recognizing system wide impacts
Large-scale consolidation can affect interconnected infrastructure, businesses, and communities, with ripple effects across the broader agricultural economy.

“We strongly encourage the STB to ensure that any merger approval clearly demonstrates tangible, enforceable benefits to competition and service for agriculture shippers and to support a competitive rail network that serves our industry well now and into the future.”



Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Detected in a Multi-Species Game Bird Hatchery in Kossuth County

The Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) have detected a case of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1 HPAI) in a multi-species game bird hatchery in Kossuth County. The flock includes pheasants, quail and chukars. This is Iowa’s second detection of H5N1 HPAI in 2026, with both cases involving game birds in Kossuth County.



Weekly Ethanol Production for 1/23/2026

According to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association for the week ending January 23, ethanol production declined 0.4% to 1.11 million b/d, equivalent to 46.79 million gallons daily. Still, output was 9.8% higher than the same week last year and 10.2% above the three-year average for the week. The four-week average ethanol production rate edged down 0.1% to 1.13 million b/d, equivalent to an annualized rate of 17.40 billion gallons (bg).

Ethanol stocks shrank 1.3% to 25.4 million barrels. Stocks were 1.3% less than the same week last year but 2.4% above the three-year average. Inventories built in the Midwest (PADD 2) but decreased in all other regions.

The volume of gasoline supplied to the U.S. market, a measure of implied demand, rebounded 11.8% to 8.76 million b/d (134.61 bg annualized) in advance of the winter storm. Demand was 5.5% more than a year ago and 5.3% above the three-year average.

Refiner/blender net inputs of ethanol followed, rising 3.6% to 883,000 b/d, equivalent to 13.57 bg annualized. Net inputs were 6.1% more than the year-ago level and 6.0% above the three-year average.

Ethanol exports fell 28% to an estimated 157,000 b/d (6.6 million gallons/day). It has been more than a year since EIA indicated ethanol was imported.



Seven Fertilizers Show Lower Prices Again; Urea Higher

DTN retail fertilizer prices continue to be mostly cheaper compared to last month, according to prices for the third week of January 2026.

For the second week in a row, seven fertilizers are slightly lower while just one is higher looking back a month. None were up or down a sizeable amount. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

The nutrients lower were DAP with an average price of $843/ton, MAP $863/ton, potash $482/ton, 10-34-0 $665/ton, anhydrous $856/ton, UAN28 $409/ton and UAN32 $464/ton.

The one fertilizer slightly higher was urea. The nitrogen fertilizer has an average price of $574/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was $0.62/lb.N, anhydrous $0.52/lb.N, UAN28 $0.73/lb.N and UAN32 $0.73/lb.N.

All eight fertilizers are now higher in price compared to one year earlier: MAP by 7%; 10-34-0 8%; potash 9%; DAP 14%; anhydrous 16%, urea 17%; UAN28 25% and UAN32 by 27%.