Monday February 09 Ag News - Cattle Market Outlook - Trump to allow more Argentine Beef imports - Trade Insights in Iowa - Net Farm Income seen down slightly in '26 - EPA's new Dicamba label - and more!

CattleFax Outlook Signals Cattle Cycle Turning as Strong Demand Meets Tight Supplies in 2026

The popular CattleFax Outlook Seminar, held as part of CattleCon 2026 in Nashville, Tennessee, shared expert market and weather analysis today. 

“The U.S. cattle and beef industry enters 2026 with strong but volatile market conditions, as historically tight cattle supplies, record-setting beef demand, and elevated policy and weather uncertainty continue to support prices, even as markets appear to near cyclical highs. Tight inventories and exceptional demand remain the dominant forces shaping the market; however, producer demographics, high input costs, and policy uncertainty point to a slow and measured expansion phase,” said Mike Murphy, CattleFax chief operating officer.

Weather Outlook: Transition Brings Risk
La Niña continues to weaken and is expected to dissipate by March, with a transitional phase most likely through spring and early summer. “We’re watching a classic transition year unfold,” said Matt Makens atmospheric scientist. “Even as the ocean changes, the atmosphere typically takes four to eight weeks to respond, so weather impacts will lag.”

In the near term, drought risks remain elevated across the Southern U.S. and Central Plains, with a 70% chance of intensification, especially south of I-70 and west of I-35. Spring’s neutral setup may help moisture distribute more evenly, though lingering La Niña effects could still limit precipitation west of I-35.

Summer outcomes hinge on how quickly a potential El Niño develops. A fast forming El Niño could deepen drought in corn growing regions while increasing precipitation in the West, whereas slower development may support more balanced moisture. By fall, El Niño becomes increasingly likely, though global climate factors could still alter its typical impacts. “El Niño isn’t a guarantee of rain for everyone,” Makens said. “Other global patterns can amplify or mute its influence, so close monitoring remains essential.”

Economic, Energy, and Feed Grain Outlook
Shifting the discussion to an outlook on the economy, energy and feed grains, Troy Bockelmann, CattleFax director of protein and grain analysis, noted that inflation continued to moderate in 2025, ending the year at 2.7% CPI growth and spending most of the year below 3%, the lowest since 2020-2021. With inflation relatively low, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates in 2025, finishing the year with the Prime Rate just below 7%, which is still relatively high relative to the 3% level seen from 2009 to 2021. 

“After several years of navigating economic turbulence, the U.S. is finally entering 2026 with a macro-economic foundation that feels steady and more predictable,” said Troy Bockelmann. “Moderating inflation, improving monetary policy, and strong consumer spending are reinforcing the sense of stability across the industries we serve.”

U.S. corn production reached a record 186.5 bu/acre in 2025, driving total output to 17 billion bushels from 98.8 million planted acres. Competitive prices and ample supply are expected to boost exports in 2026. With a 13.6% stocks‑to‑use ratio, corn prices should stay in the $4–$5/bu range.

CattleFax shared that U.S. hay production increased slightly in 2025 to about 123 million tons. Hay prices are expected to average around $145/ton in 2026. On the energy front, Bockelmann said that energy supply should remain adequate, keeping prices low and rangebound for diesel, natural gas and oil. When taking a look at competing proteins, pork and poultry markets are expected to see modest growth in 2026.

Cattle Markets: Strong Fundamentals, Shifting Dynamics
Kevin Good, vice president of market analysis at CattleFax, reported the U.S. beef cow herd decreased 280,000, while dairy cow inventories increased by 190,000 head. 

Cattle availability will remain constrained in the first half of 2026 due to limited feeder cattle supplies. Fed slaughter is projected to decline by 600,000 head, primarily early in the year, and non-fed slaughter is expected to remain historically tight at 5.6 million head. Total commercial beef production is projected to decline again in 2026, albeit at a slower pace than in 2025. With imports up 5% and exports down 5%, U.S. per-capita beef supplies are forecast 0.2 lbs. larger in 2026 to 59.2 lbs., the largest since 2010. 

Retail beef demand remained historically strong in 2025, with record retail prices supported by steady consumption and exceptional product quality. Consumer preferences continue to favor high-protein, nutrient-dense foods, reinforcing demand even as higher prices move through the supply chain. 

“With 84% of fed cattle grading Choice or higher and 12% grading Prime, the industry is well positioned to sustain premium pricing,” Good noted. “Beef demand continues to be anchored by exceptional quality and strong consumer confidence in beef as a premium protein.  Even as markets adjust and trade flows shift, the fundamentals supporting long-term beef demand remain solid.”

Price Outlook for 2026
Cattle and beef prices are forecast to average steady to higher in 2026, with risk increasing later in the year as markets anticipate larger supplies in 2027. 

Cow-calf producers are expected to retain the strongest leverage as the cycle turns, supporting continued profitability for several more years. CattleFax forecast the average 2026 fed steer price at $224/cwt., steady from 2025. All cattle classes are expected to trade higher, with 800-lb. steer prices expected to average $335/cwt., and 550-lb. steer prices averaging $440/cwt. Utility cows are expected to average $155/cwt., with bred cows at an average of $4,000/cwt. 

2025 USDA All-Fresh Retail Beef prices are expected to average $9.25/pound, however, the continued increase in retail prices has CattleFax predicting consumer resistance to further price increases, even as demand is supported by a strong economy, beef quality and dietary focus on protein.

“As we look ahead, several factors will shape the trajectory of the beef industry. The potential threat of New World Screwworm and the status of Mexican feeder cattle imports is something we’re watching closely,” Murphy said. “At the same time, shifts in packing capacity are rebalancing market leverage. Finally, the dairy industry will continue to be a growth industry supplying more cattle to the beef industry, following strong financial performance in 2025.”

Despite near-term volatility, the long-term outlook remains positive. Strong domestic demand, improving beef quality, and sufficient packing capacity are expected to continue supporting profitability for the cow-calf sector as the industry moves into the next phase of the cattle cycle. 



Estimating What Matters: Carbon Intensity in Corn and Soybean Markets
Feb 19, 2026 12:00 PM 
With: Elliott Dennis, Associate Professor, UNL Agricultural Economics 
Richard Perrin, Professor, UNL Agricultural Economics 
Felipe Miranda de Souza Almeida, Graduate Research Assistant, UNL Agricultural Economics

Low-carbon fuel policies are reshaping grain and meat markets. This webinar breaks down new research estimating the carbon intensity (CI) of corn, soybeans in the Northern Plains using two leading life-cycle models. We’ll show how CI varies across regions, irrigation systems, and production practices and why some common assumptions miss the mark. Most importantly, we’ll explore how management choices like tillage and cover crops can dramatically shift CI. If future premiums emerge, who benefits, and will these premiums actually be paid by consumers? 

Register for the webinar here:  https://cap.unl.edu/webinars. 

Miss the live webinar or want to review it again? Recordings are available — typically within 24 hours of the live webinar — in the archive section of the Center for Agricultural Profitability's webinar page, https://cap.unl.edu/webinars. 



Ankerson approved as UNL interim chancellor, campus momentum highlighted during NU Regents meeting

The University of Nebraska Board of Regents approved the appointment of Katherine S. Ankerson as interim chancellor for the University of Nebraska–Lincoln during a Feb. 6 meeting.

NU President Jeffrey P. Gold, M.D., tapped Ankerson to serve as interim chancellor following the departure of Rodney Bennett, who served as UNL Chancellor from mid-2023 until January. Prior to stepping into the role of interim chancellor, Ankerson served as UNL’s executive vice chancellor, with previous roles as dean, associate dean and professor in UNL’s College of Architecture.

“Interim Chancellor Ankerson is the right leader for the University of Nebraska–Lincoln at this moment,” said Dr. Gold. “She is extremely collaborative and forward-looking, and I have greatly enjoyed working with her over the past month. I look forward to seeing how the Lincoln campus moves forward and grows stronger under her leadership.”



Trump Presses for Lowering Beef Prices

President Donald Trump on Friday announced the United States will lower tariff barriers to allow 80,000 metric tons (mt) of beef trimmings to be imported from Argentina.

In a proclamation dubbed "Ensuring Affordable Beef for the American Consumer," Trump announced the U.S. would lower the tariff rate quota to increase imports of lean beef trimmings and all of the increased quota would come from Argentina.

The move follows through on a push Trump began last fall to boost beef imports as a way to potentially lower U.S. beef prices. The president drew fire from cattle producers in October after pushing for more imported beef to lower prices. Trump also angered some cattle producers after he declared on Truth Social, "the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put Tariffs on cattle coming into the United States."

USDA's Economic Research Service stated Argentina exported roughly 44,000 mt of beef to the U.S. in 2024. Through November 2025, USDA data shows Argentina shipped 51,574 mt of beef to the U.S.

Still, Argentina's beef and veal exports to the U.S. only equal about 2.2% of all U.S. beef imports for 2025. Through November, the U.S. imported more than 2.2 million metric tons (mmt) of beef, or roughly 4.9 billion pounds.

If Argentina hits 80,000 mt of beef trimmings, that would still only equate to about 3.6% of all U.S. beef imports, based on USDA statistics.



Nebraska Cattlemen Statement on U.S.-Argentina Agreement

Following the Trump Administration’s announcement regarding a bilateral trade deal with Argentina including beef, Nebraska Cattlemen released the following statement: 

“Nebraska Cattlemen stands firm in the belief that expanding the U.S. beef cattle herd and lowering input costs is the solution to elevated beef prices, not foreign beef imports.

The federal government should focus on removing overregulation at all levels of cattle and beef production and expanding the availability of risk management options available to producers to aid in the multi-year process of rebuilding U.S. beef cattle inventories.” 



Fischer Supports Nebraska Cattle Ranchers, Calls For Real Solutions to Lower Beef Prices

U.S. Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) released the following statement in support of Nebraska’s cattle ranchers after President Trump signed an executive order permitting an increase of Argentine beef imports into U.S. grocery stores:

"Nebraska produces the world's best beef. Instead of imports that sideline American ranchers, we should be focused on solutions that cut red tape, lower production costs, and support growing our cattle herd.”



Smith Calls for Long-Term Market Certainty for Nebraska's Beef Producers

Congressman Adrian Smith (NE-03), a senior member of the House Ways and Means Committee and Chair of the Trade Subcommittee, released the following statement after President Trump signed an executive order permitting increased imports of Argentine beef amid historically low U.S. cattle inventories:

“No matter the conditions, ranchers in Nebraska's Third District lead the nation in producing high-quality, affordable beef. Now more than ever, we must deliver policies which drive confidence in the market, eliminate burdensome regulations, and lower production costs. While the United States holds historic low-inventory in cattle herds, we must focus on policies that strengthen the market and create long-term certainty for the entire supply chain." 



U.S. Dairy Welcomes U.S.-Argentina Trade Agreement

The National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF), U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC) and Consortium for Common Food Names (CCFN) celebrated the signing of a U.S.–Argentina Agreement on Reciprocal Trade and Investment late yesterday that includes tariff and nontariff barrier concessions for U.S. dairy exports. 

Argentina commits in the trade deal to eliminate tariffs that currently range up to 28 percent on select dairy products, including milk powders, dairy proteins, lactose, and other dairy ingredients. The agreement also establishes a 1,000 metric ton quota for certain U.S. cheeses. In addition to tariff reductions, Argentina agrees to prevent several nontariff barriers, including refraining from imposing processing facility registration requirements on U.S. dairy exports and providing explicit protections for 39 common cheese names like “parmesan”. 

“The commitments secured in the U.S.-Argentina reciprocal trade deal bring new, real opportunities for our dairy exports to South America,” said Krysta Harden, president and CEO of USDEC. “USDEC appreciates USTR’s hard work in securing agreements that lower tariffs and meaningfully address nontariff barriers, particularly those to protect common cheese names. We look forward to building our market presence in Argentina as the agreement is implemented.” 

“Trade deals like this one bring dairy farmers promise for the future,” said Gregg Doud, president and CEO of NMPF. “Dairy farms operate 365 days a year, and the U.S. negotiating team is keeping pace to secure new market access. NMPF will continue to work with the Administration as all the reciprocal trade agreements are translated into real results on the ground for our farmers.” 

“Argentina’s commitment to protect 39 common cheese names and 10 generic meat terms could not have come at a more important time,” said Jaime Castaneda, executive director of CCFN. “As the European Union is advancing toward implementation of its trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc of countries, our ability to use common names is increasingly at risk. We cannot thank Ambassador Greer and the USTR negotiating team enough for the foresight and leadership in protecting U.S. exporters’ rights.” 

The trade deal follows reciprocal trade agreements that the United States signed recently with El Salvador and Guatemala last week that included commitments to prevent barriers to U.S. dairy exports. USDEC and NMPF will continue to work with the U.S. government as the reciprocal trade negotiations progress to identify and address impediments to dairy trade and grow U.S. export opportunities.  



Council Joins National Corn Growers Association, Iowa Corn For Producer Trade Policy Education

Last week, the U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council (USGBC), National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) and Iowa Corn held two trade policy academies (TPAs) in Iowa for agricultural industry stakeholders to learn about the latest developments affecting global markets for their goods.

Last week, U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council (USGBC) Director of Industry Relations Ellen S. Zimmerman traveled to Atlantic and Knoxville, Iowa for a pair of trade policy academy (TPA) events, “Trade Beyond Iowa: Why Trade Matters,” where farmers and other agricultural industry stakeholders learned about the latest developments affecting global markets for their goods.

The meetings were held in collaboration with the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) and Iowa Corn.

“The Council’s engagement with Iowa farmers is always extraordinary, and the eagerness of our attendees certainly reflected that in their interest in understanding how commodity prices are affected and future opportunities to be excited about,” Zimmerman said.

“We were fortunate to be joined by several past Council leaders, including former USGBC Chairman Julius Schaaf and former USGBC At-Large Director Curt Mether, who were on hand to answer questions and share their experiences with getting involved in global agricultural trade.”

The topics covered at both events were identical to provide the best possible coverage on market developments to a wider range of producers across the state, and the first segment of the agenda focused on current and potential trade agreements affecting agricultural markets.

Later, speakers discussed the top export markets for U.S. agricultural goods and how the Council is working with domestic and international partners to increase global demand for U.S. corn, barley, sorghum and their co-products.

“By attending a trade education event, you connect yourself to a dynamic network of producers committed to the international success of U.S. feed grains and co-products, equipping you with the knowledge to impact your own operation and your community,” Zimmerman said.



Renewable Fuel Producers are Ready, Willing and Able; Need Policy Certainty and New Tools to Unlock Next Wave of Growth 

Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA) Executive Director Monte Shaw told attendees at the Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit that America’s ethanol and biodiesel producers are “ready, willing, and able” to meet demand. However, that growth hinges on opening new markets and restoring policy certainty at both the state and federal levels. 

“Both state and federal policy must once again embrace the positive power of renewable fuels at work,” said Shaw. “Remove barriers and uncertainty. Resist those that would tie our hands behind our backs.” 

Shaw closed his remarks with a “crystal clear” rallying cry for year-round E15, noting that if President Trump fails to compel Congress to act, the fight for E15 will continue. 

“E15 is vital to the future of ethanol, farmers, and rural America,” stated Shaw. “Our fight will return to the states, where seven Midwest governors showed us a path forward to year-round E15. It is not our preferred path forward. But it may be our only path. If so, we will accept the challenge. Because we shall never surrender.” 

Shaw outlined pathways to unlocking new demand beyond E15, including lower-carbon marine fuels, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and carbon capture, use, and storage (CCUS). 

“If renewable fuels can provide just a portion of their low carbon needs, those markets could drive demand for 20 to 30 years, even when accounting for the increased productivity of American farmers,” he noted. 

Shaw also highlighted the importance of upcoming policy announcements, such as 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit and robust RFS volumes, which he predicted “will bear fruit in 2026.” 

“We have seen the power of ‘Renewable Fuels at Work.’ When renewable fuels do well, farmers do well. And when farmers do well, the rural economy does well. And when the rural economy does well, it’s good for all of Iowa,” Shaw said.  



Outlook for 2026 Farm Sector Profits Mixed
USDA Economic Research Service

Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast at $153.4 billion for calendar year 2026, a decrease of $1.2 billion (0.7 percent) relative to 2025 in nominal (not adjusted for inflation) dollars. After adjusting for inflation, net farm income is forecast to decrease by $4.1 billion (2.6 percent) in 2026 relative to 2025. Despite this expected decline, 2026 net farm income would remain above its 20-year average (2005–24) in inflation-adjusted dollars.

Net cash farm income is forecast at $158.5 billion for 2026, an increase of $4.6 billion (3.0 percent) relative to 2025 (not adjusted for inflation). When adjusted for inflation, 2026 net cash farm income is forecast to increase by $1.7 billion (1.1 percent) from 2025. The forecast would keep net cash farm income above its 2005–24 average. Net cash farm income encompasses cash receipts from farming, as well as cash farm-related income (including Federal Government payments) minus cash expenses. It does not include noncash items (including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income of operator dwellings) reflected in the net farm income measure.

The average net cash farm income for farm businesses is forecast to increase 18.7 percent from 2025 to $135,000 per farm in 2026 in nominal terms. Farm businesses are farms with annual gross cash farm income (GCFI)—annual income before expenses—of at least $350,000 or operations with less than $350,000 in annual GCFI but that report farming as the operator's primary occupation. All nine USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Farm Resource Regions are expected to see average net cash farm income rise in 2026 relative to 2025. Farm businesses located in the Prairie Gateway region are projected to see the largest increase in average net cash income. When grouped by commodity specialization, farm businesses specializing in crops are forecast to see higher average net cash farm income in 2026. Those specializing in animal/animal products are forecast to see lower average net farm income except for cattle/calf farm businesses.

On the farm sector balance sheet, equity is expected to increase by $112.1 billion (2.9 percent) from 2025 to $3.92 trillion in 2026 in nominal terms. Farm sector assets are forecast to increase by $142.9 billion (3.2 percent) to $4.54 trillion in 2026 following an expected increase in the value of farm real estate assets. Farm sector debt is forecast to increase by $30.8 billion (5.2 percent) to $624.7 billion in 2026. Debt-to-asset levels for the sector are forecast to increase slightly to 13.75 percent in 2026. Working capital is forecast to decrease 9.2 percent in 2026 compared to 2025.

Median Income of Farm Operator Households Forecast to Increase in 2025 and 2026
Median total farm household income is forecast to increase to $110,014 in 2025, a 1.8 percent increase after adjusting for inflation from 2024 (4.5 percent in nominal terms). It is forecast to reach $113,031 in 2026 with an increase of 2.7 percent after inflation relative to 2025 (5.3 percent in nominal terms).

Farm households typically receive income from farm and off-farm sources. Median farm income earned by farm households is forecast at -$1,498 for 2025 after inflation and is forecast to increase to -$1,161 in 2026. Many farm households primarily rely on off-farm income. Median off-farm income is forecast at $92,123 for 2025, an increase of 0.8 percent after inflation from 2024 (3.4 percent in nominal terms). In 2026, median off-farm income is forecast to increase by a further 0.8 percent after inflation to $92,815 (3.3 percent in nominal terms). Since farm and off-farm income are not distributed identically for every farm, median total income will generally not equal the sum of median off-farm and median farm income.



ASA Statement on EPA’s New Dicamba Label

The American Soybean Association (ASA) applauds the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for finalizing a new dicamba label for Over the Top (OTT) use, an important step in preserving access to a critical weed management tool for soybean farmers.

Dicamba remains an essential part of Integrated Pest Management Systems (IPMs), ensuring growers can maintain long-term control of destructive herbicide-resistant weed populations. This EPA action comes at an opportune time when growers are making critical decisions for the 2026 planting season. Without access to effective post-emergence tools, farmers face higher costs, reduced yields, and fewer sustainable options for protecting their crops.

“We appreciate EPA moving forward with a new dicamba label and recognize the importance of maintaining access to this tool for soybean farmers,” said Scott Metzger, president of the American Soybean Association and an Ohio soybean grower. “Farmers need clear, workable rules that accurately reflect how we farm. We look forward to reviewing the final label and hope it incorporates the feedback ASA and its state affiliates provided to ensure dicamba remains a practical option within a responsible, science-based weed management system.”

ASA and its state affiliates have consistently urged EPA to deliver a clear, practical, and science-based label that provides certainty for farmers and applicators. Last year, ASA and its state affiliates submitted detailed comments urging EPA to ensure any final registration is workable in real-world farming conditions. Those comments emphasized the need for greater flexibility around temperature restrictions, the importance of multiple modes of action in IPMs like tank mixing, and reasonable spray drift and runoff mitigation requirements that are workable, science-based, and cost-effective for growers.

ASA is eager to review the label and continue engaging with EPA to ensure regulatory decisions support both environmental stewardship and the realities of modern agriculture.



Agriculture Groups Urge EPA to Uphold Science-Based Pesticide Review Process

A coalition of leading agricultural organizations last week sent a letter to Lee Zeldin, Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), urging the agency to uphold its rigorous, science-based pesticide registration process and ensure timely reviews under federal law.

The letter expresses support for the goals of the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement and the MAHA Commission’s Make Our Children Healthy Again Strategy, while emphasizing that access to safe, effective, and innovative crop protection tools is essential to achieving those goals. The organizations highlight that science-based pesticide approvals are critical not only to food security and affordability, but also to the long-term sustainability of U.S. agriculture enabling growers to protect yields, use inputs efficiently, reduce losses, and continue investing in environmental stewardship and innovation.

The undersigned groups emphasize the importance of EPA meeting its statutory obligations under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Pesticide Registration Improvement Act (PRIA). They note that prolonged delays in pesticide registrations and approvals place U.S. farmers at a competitive disadvantage, limit access to new technologies, and undermine the ability of producers across sectors to sustainably meet consumer demand.

Statements from Participating Organizations

American Farm Bureau Federation
“Farmers take seriously our responsibility to use crop protection tools responsibly to ensure safe, healthy food. EPA’s rigorous review process and reliance on sound science to approve these products gives us confidence they can be safely applied,” said American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall. “Under this proven process, growers need timely approvals of critical herbicides, insecticides, and other pesticide products to prevent bugs and weeds from destroying the crops that feed America.”

American Soybean Association
“Pesticides approved by EPA undergo extensive scientific review to ensure they meet strict safety and efficacy standards, and timely, predictable reviews under federal law are essential so farmers can access innovative tools and remain competitive and sustainable,” said Scott Metzger, president of the American Soybean Association and Ohio farmer. “For soybean farmers, these tools are critical to protecting yields, managing weed resistance, and continuing to produce safe, affordable food, feed, and fuel for consumers at home and around the world.”

International Fresh Produce Association
"Our growers have experienced an erosion of available tools to help grow the fruits, vegetables, and florals consumers expect from our industry. To remedy this, EPA should do more to encourage and incentivize registration of products for specialty crop uses. This would dramatically improve the trajectory on new uses and tolerances,” said IFPA CEO Cathy Burns. “This is even more important now with the Make America Healthy Again movement’s focus on food and sustainability. All methods of fresh produce and floral production contribute to an abundant food supply. Each approach has its place, and each relies on science-based tools to manage pests, protect crops, and reduce food loss.”

The full letter was submitted to EPA on February 5, 2026, and reflects broad alignment across agricultural sectors on the need for regulatory certainty, timely decision-making, and continued reliance on sound science to support a resilient, competitive, and sustainable U.S. agricultural system. 



Agriculture Groups Join Forces to Call for USMCA Renewal

Forty farm and agricultural groups, and growing, today launched the Agricultural Coalition for the United-States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, underscoring the accord’s vital role as an economic engine for the U.S. farm economy and calling for its renewal with targeted improvements.

As part of the launch, the group unveiled a new website and kicked off an aggressive ad campaign in the nation’s capital, all of which is designed to promote the benefits afforded to the U.S. food and agriculture sector under the USMCA as the administration approaches the 2026 mandatory review.
 
“USMCA is one of President Trump’s signature achievements and one that has significantly propelled the ag economy,” said Bryan Goodman, a spokesperson for the new group. “We are not saying it’s perfect, as some changes are warranted, but we are saying it is of paramount importance to farmers that all three countries renew the agreement.”
 
USMCA was signed by the United States, Mexico and Canada in 2018 during President Trump’s first term and was implemented in 2020 to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement.

The agreement has significantly increased U.S. agriculture exports to Canada and Mexico, provided more certainty between the three nations and created a mechanism for resolving trade disputes.

Under the agreement, leaders of all three nations must begin a formal review by July 2026 to determine whether to renew. If renewed, the agreement would remain in effect for an additional 16 years, with another review scheduled in 2032. If the countries fail to reach an agreement and move to terminate, USMCA will expire in 2036. The review could also enter a period of annual consultations with no clear path forward, creating significant uncertainty for the farm economy.

The Trump administration, while indicating the renewal of USMCA is not guaranteed, has acknowledged it has been successful to a certain degree.
 
“Our farmers make decisions a year or more in advance,” Goodman said. “They need the certainty of knowing USMCA is here to stay.”

Advocates say President Trump made a major contribution to U.S. trade when he conceptualized and signed the agreement.
 
“We want to protect this agreement and build on what President Trump started in his first term,” Goodman said. “We are confident we will be able to share the facts and farmer testimony that will help the Trump administration benefit rural communities throughout the process of the 2026 Review.”



Virginia Cattleman Takes Helm as NCBA President

Since 1850, Gene Copenhaver’s family has been rooted in the land raising crops and livestock. The Virginia cattleman now takes the helm as the new president of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA). Copenhaver’s new leadership role began at the end of CattleCon 2026, held this week in Nashville, Tennessee. 

The 2026 NCBA officer team was approved by the NCBA Board of Directors and includes Kim Brackett of Idaho, president-elect, and Skye Krebs of Oregon, vice president. Kenny Rogers of Colorado was elected chair of the NCBA Policy Division and Scott Anderson of Oklahoma was elected policy vice chair. Travis Maddock of North Dakota and Dan Hanrahan of Iowa, were elected as chair and vice chair of the NCBA Federation Division, respectively. Brad Hastings of Texas will serve in the role of NCBA treasurer. 

Copenhaver currently manages his family’s stocker operation in southwest Virginia with his son, Will, and was an agriculture loan officer for 38 years. He has been married to his wife, Jodi, for more than 35 years, and they have three grown children, Brad, Will and Jaymee, and three granddaughters.

Copenhaver’s father taught him early to “be at the table,” especially when policy decisions were being made. About 25 years ago, he helped launch a county cattlemen’s group, then worked his way through leadership roles at the state level, eventually serving as president of the Virginia Cattlemen’s Association. Nationally, he became involved with NCBA, serving on the Tax & Credit and International Trade committees, multiple task forces, and the officer team. If there is a single theme to his leadership philosophy, it is grassroots engagement.

“I’ll go to my grave saying our greatest strength is grassroots,” Copenhaver said. 

The new president’s priorities are straightforward: continue what works, stay grounded in grassroots input, remain open-minded, and focus on profitability. Copenhaver wants every sector and every scale of operation to be viable. That means pushing back against regulatory barriers, supporting policies that allow reinvestment, and building on recent momentum around tax provisions. 

“We can’t build the future if every good year gets taxed away before we can shore up our infrastructure,” he said.

Copenhaver remains optimistic about the future for two reasons. First is the demand the beef industry has built steadily in the last four decades. Second is the next generation — young producers who are smart, relationship-driven, and family-centered, and who want to build operations that last.

Success, for Copenhaver, is not complicated. “Build a good operation. Involve your family. Treat people right,” he said. For the industry, it means continuing to grow demand and profitability across all sectors without losing sight of its roots. 



USDA Dairy Products December 2025 Production Highlights

Total cheese output (excluding cottage cheese) was 1.28 billion pounds, 6.7 percent above December 2024 and 4.4 percent above November 2025. Italian type cheese production totaled 561 million pounds, 7.4 percent above December 2024 and 5.2 percent above November 2025. American type cheese production totaled 500 million pounds, 6.8 percent above December 2024 and 5.7 percent above November 2025. Butter production was 204 million pounds, 2.0 percent above December 2024 and 15.0 percent above November 2025.

Dry milk products (comparisons in percentage with December 2024)
Nonfat dry milk, human - 127 million pounds, down 2.7 percent.
Skim milk powder - 43.1 million pounds, down 15.2 percent.

Whey products (comparisons in percentage with December 2024)
Dry whey, total - 69.8 million pounds, up 1.2 percent.
Lactose, human and animal - 94.8 million pounds, up 1.5 percent.
Whey protein concentrate, total - 43.6 million pounds, up 3.1 percent.

Frozen products (comparisons in percentage with December 2024)
Ice cream, regular (hard) - 48.9 million gallons, down 5.4 percent.
Ice cream, lowfat (total) - 23.5 million gallons, down 6.2 percent.
Sherbet (hard) - 1.45 million gallons, up 0.4 percent.
Frozen yogurt (total) - 2.63 million gallons, down 7.2 percent.