Friday September 27 Hogs and Pigs Report + Ag News

NEBRASKA HOG INVENTORY DOWN 2 PERCENT

Nebraska inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2013, was 3.15 million head, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.  This was down 2 percent from September 1, 2012, but up 2 percent from June 1, 2013.  

Breeding hog inventory, at 400,000 head, was up 5 percent from September 1, 2012, but unchanged from last quarter.  Market hog inventory, at 2.75 million head, was down 2 percent from last year, but up 2 percent from last quarter.  

The June-August 2013 Nebraska pig crop, at 1.79 million head, was up slightly from 2012.  Sows farrowed during the period totaled 165,000 head, down 3 percent from last year.  The average pigs saved per litter was a record high 10.85 for the June-August period, compared to 10.50 last year.

Nebraska hog producers intend to farrow 170,000 sows during the September-November 2013 quarter, unchanged from the actual farrowings during the same period a year ago.  Intended farrowings for December 2013-February 2014 are 165,000 sows, also unchanged from the actual farrowings during the same period the previous year.  



Iowa Hogs & Pigs

On  September  1,  2013  there  were  21.2  million  hogs  and  pigs  on  Iowa  farms  according  the  latest  USDA  National Agricultural Statistics Service Hogs and Pigs report.   The September 1 inventory was up 2 percent from a year ago and became the highest inventory on record. 

The June-August 2013 pig crop was 5.14 million head.   A  total of 485,000 sows farrowed with an average  litter size of 10.6 pigs per sow.

As of September 1, producers planned to farrow 480,000 head of sows and gilts in the September-November 2013 quarter. Farrowing intentions for the December-February 2014 period were estimated at 475,000 as of September 1, 2013. 



US Hog Inventory Up Slightly

United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2013 was 68.4 million head. This was up slightly from September 1, 2012, and up 3 percent from June 1, 2013. 

Breeding inventory, at 5.81 million head, was up slightly from last year, but down 1 percent from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 62.5 million head, was up slightly from last year, and up 3 percent from last quarter.

The June-August 2013 pig crop, at 30.2 million head, was up 2 percent from 2012. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.92 million head, down slightly from 2012. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high 10.33 for the June-August period, compared to 10.13 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.80 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 10.40 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

United States hog producers intend to have 2.90 million sows farrow during the September-November 2013 quarter, up slightly from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2012, but down 1 percent from 2011. Intended farrowings for December-February 2014, at 2.87 million sows, are up 1 percent from 2013, and up slightly from 2012.

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 46 percent of the total United States hog inventory, down from 47 percent last year.



AGRICULTURAL PRICES IN NEBRASKA FOR SEPT '13

Preliminary prices received by farmers for winter wheat for September 2013 averaged $6.90 per bushel, a decrease of 15 cents from the August price according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

The preliminary September corn price, at $5.60 per bushel, decreased 85 cents from the previous month.

The preliminary September sorghum price averaged $8.80 per cwt, a decrease of $1.40 from August.

The preliminary September soybean price, at $13.70 per bushel, increased 20 cents from last month.

The preliminary September dry edible bean price, at $42.90 per cwt, is up 30 cents from last month.

The September alfalfa hay price, at $181.00 per ton, is down $28.00 from last month. The other hay price, at $136.00 per ton, is down $15.00 from last month.

The preliminary September oat price is withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.  



USDA:  September Farm Prices Received Index Declined 4 Points

The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in September, at 185 percent, based on 1990-1992=100, decreased 4 points (2.1 percent) from August. The Crop Index is down 8 points (3.7 percent) and the Livestock Index decreased 1 point (0.6 percent). Producers received lower prices for corn, hogs, and wheat and higher prices for calves, milk, and cattle. In addition to prices, the overall index is also affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of commodities producers sell. Increased monthly movement of soybeans, corn, potatoes, and hogs offset the decreased marketing of wheat, cattle, cotton, and broilers.

The preliminary All Farm Products Index is down 10 points (5.1 percent) from September 2012. The Food Commodities Index, at 181, is unchanged from last month but decreased 1 point (0.5 percent) from September 2012.

All crops:
The September index, at 206, decreased 3.7 percent from August and is 9.3 percent below September 2012. Index decreases for feed grains & hay and commercial vegetables more than offset the index increases for fruits & nuts and oilseeds.

Food grains: The September index, at 228, is down 1.3 percent from the previous month and 14 percent below a year ago. The September price for all wheat, at $6.75 per bushel, is down 12 cents from August and $1.52 below September 2012.

Feed grains & hay: The September index, at 230, declined 13 percent from last month and is 21 percent below a year ago. The corn price, at $5.28 per bushel, is down 93 cents from last month and $1.61 below September 2012. The all hay price, at $176 per ton, is down $4.00 from August and $9.00 from last September. Sorghum grain, at $8.15 per cwt, is 67 cents lower than August and $3.35 below September last year.

Cotton, Upland: The September index, at 126, is down 0.8 percent from August but 7.7 percent above last year. The September price, at 76.1 cents per pound, is down 0.8 cents from the previous month but 5.4 cents higher than last September.

Oilseeds: The September index, at 241, is up 1.7 percent from August and 0.4 percent higher than September 2012. The soybean price, at $13.80 per bushel, decreased 30 cents from August and is 50 cents below September 2012.

Livestock and products:
The September index, at 162, is 0.6 percent below last month but up 3.8 percent from September 2012. Compared with a year ago, prices are higher for hogs, broilers, calves, cattle, and milk. Prices for eggs and turkeys are lower than last year.

Meat animals: The September index, at 165, is unchanged from last month but 7.1 percent higher than last year. The September hog price, at $69.20 per cwt, is down $5.00 from August but $13.50 higher than a year ago. The September beef cattle price of $123 per cwt is up $1.00 from last month and $2.00 higher than September 2012.

Dairy products: The September index, at 152, is up 2.0 percent from a month ago and 0.7 percent higher than September last year. The September all milk price of $19.80 per cwt is up 30 cents from last month and 10 cents higher than September 2012.

Prices Paid Index Down 3 Points
The September Index of Prices Paid for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW) is 213 percent of the 1990-1992 average. The index is down 3 points (-1.4 percent) from August and 4 points (-1.8 percent) below September 2012. Lower prices in September for concentrates, nitrogen, feed grains, and mixed fertilizer offset higher prices for feeder cattle, diesel, LP gas, and feeder pigs.



Cat Season!
"Soy" Roy Smith, Friday morning guest market commentary

The season for the dead cat bounce strategy in the soybean market is upon us. The most likely time for this strategy to begin is the first half of October. There is no guarantee of course. In the last few years it has come as early as the middle of September. It has come as late as November. However, the most likely time is the first week of October.

The bounce is a good time to sell soybeans for many reasons. There is very little production risk because harvest is only a few days away. Farmers have a good estimate of yields because the crop is in the field. If sales are made at or soon after harvest the storage costs are minimal. Timing of income is good because it can be taken in the current year or delayed for income tax purposes if necessary.

I started tracking prices for the bounce beginning September 1. I chart March futures as well as local cash. A sell signal is ten days of prices higher than a major low and a rally of at least 35 cents. Upper parameters are 15 days above a major low and a dollar a bushel rally. To the inexperienced marketer this seems like a wide range. After watching it for a year or two most individuals find that those are good guidelines for determining when to make sales.

In rare occasions the bounce will turn into a major rally after January 1. Most years the bounce ends by year end. It is probably a mistake to use the word “always” to describe any marketing move. However there has been a move that fits the definition of a dead cat bounce every year since 1980. Sometimes all of the price improvement is in the local cash market. That is the reason for tracking the local price for decision making. It is also why some academic researchers say that it does not exist.

Farmers look for a magic bullet to tell them when to sell. There is no magic in grain marketing. For those who are willing to accept “almost always” as good enough for a decision making tool, the dead cat bounce is a workable strategy. 



PUBLIC HEARING Scheduled Regarding a District-Wide Change to the Upper Big Blue NRD’s RULE 5 for Water Quantity

The Upper Big Blue NRD will hold a public hearing on Tuesday, November 5, 2013, at 2:00 p.m. at the York City Auditorium, located at the intersection of 6th Street and Nebraska Avenue, York, Nebraska.  An  informational meeting, beginning at 1:30 p.m., will precede the hearing.  The purpose of the hearing is to receive comments on proposed changes to District Rule 5 – Ground Water Management Area Rules and Regulations.

The main changes require the installation of flow meters on all wells, and the allocation of groundwater of 45 inches over 5 years.  The proposed changes to RULE 5 consist of the following:

1).  Flow Meters:  Rule 5 currently requires all wells constructed after March 1, 2004 with a pumping capacity greater than 50 gallons per minute (gpm) to be equipped with a flow meter.  The proposed changes require that ALL wells with a pumping capacity greater than 50 gpm be equipped with a flow meter.  The deadline for flow meter installation would be January 1, 2015.

2).  Allocation:  The proposed changes to Rule 5 will set the first allocation period at 60 months (5 years).  The first groundwater allocation for Agricultural Users will be 45 inches per certified irrigated acre for the allocation period.  Municipal User allocation will be 45 inches per acre for 1/3 of the land in the corporate limits, plus 250 gallons per person per day.  Groundwater used for fire protection, water system and sewer system maintenance are exempt in order to protect public health and safety.  Other users will receive an allocation equal to 100 percent of the average annual withdrawal based on the 3 years prior to the start of allocation.  Other Users include groundwater uses such as manufacturing, confined animal feeding and lake filling for recreation.  If the groundwater user does not use all of his or her allocation, up to 10 percent of the total allocation would carry over to the next groundwater use period.

3).  Certified Groundwater Use Acres and Pooling:  Proposed changes to Rule 5 provide for the combining of certified groundwater use acres into units.  A unit of groundwater use acres consists of acres in the same government survey section or irrigated by the same well that are under the control of one groundwater user.  The owner of the land is the groundwater user unless the land is included in a pooling agreement.  The term “pooling” refers to the combining of certified Groundwater Use Acres (irrigated acres) for the purpose of determining what lands will be assigned an allocation.  There are three basic types of pooling agreements allowed in Rule 5.

4).  Groundwater Transfers:  Language has been included in the proposed changes to Rule 5 to allow for the cancellation of a groundwater transfer if the groundwater user does not comply with the transfer regulations or conditions placed on the authorization at the time it was issued.

5).  Development of New Groundwater Uses:  Rule 5 DOES NOT create a moratorium on the construction of wells, the addition of irrigated acres, or the other groundwater uses.

The public is strongly encouraged to attend.  Written comments will be accepted following the public hearing until November 12, 2013, 5 p.m., at which point the public hearing process will close.

A copy of the proposed changes to Rule 5 is available upon request at the NRD office at 105 N. Lincoln Avenue, York, Nebraska, and on the NRD website at: www.upperbigblue.org.  Activities and projects of the Upper Big Blue NRD are reviewed and approved by a locally elected Board of Directors.  The Upper Big Blue NRD is one of 23 Natural Resources Districts across the state.  For more information please call (402) 362-6601.



“NRD’s Annual Conference Focuses On Protecting the Future of Nebraska Natural Resources”

The Nebraska Association of Resources Districts (NARD) Annual Conference was held at the Younes Conference Center in Kearney, September 22nd-24th and focused on protecting the future of Nebraska’s natural resources.  This year more than 375 Natural Resource District (NRD) managers, staff, board members, and conservation partners get together to learn more about protecting Nebraska natural resources.   

“These conferences are an important way for our districts and other agencies to meet and share their ‘best management practices’ so the NRDs can do the best job possible of protecting lives, protecting property and protecting the future of our natural resources,” said Joe Anderjaska, President of the NARD Board of Directors.

Conference keynote speakers included Lieutenant Governor Lavon Heideman, and opening remarks from partnering agencies. Participants had a variety of educational break-out sessions to choose from during the event.  Session topics ranged from a legislative update to updates on federal programs and several presentations on water quality and quantity management.  Other events include NRD basin meetings and recognition of conservation award winners and Master Conservationists. The NARD Foundation live and silent auctions where held after the Awards Banquet and combined with other events; over $21,000 dollars were raised to support educational programs.

During the Awards Banquet three individuals were inducted into the Natural Resources Hall of Fame inaugural inductees recognized include: Ron Bishop, Central Platte NRD; Dick Mercer, Central Platte NRD; and the late State Senator Maurice Kremer.

“This is an exciting time for the Nebraska Association of Resources Districts and the induction of the inaugural Hall of Fame recipients,” said Anderjaska. “The purpose of the Natural Resources Hall of Fame is to reward individuals for service and commitment to natural resources conservation and these three inductees are very deserving individuals,” said Anderjaska.

The Hall of Fame is designed to recognize outstanding effort and dedication to conservation, resulting in improving natural resources in Nebraska. There are three Hall of Fame categories including: Natural Resources District Board Member, Natural Resources District Employee and NRD Supporter which includes individuals outside the NRD system.
·        Ron Bishop was nominated by the Central Platte NRD.  Bishop retired in June of 2013 as the manager at the Central Platte NRD and had served in the position since the district was formed in 1972.  Bishop has played a critical role in helping to develop the NRD structure and promoting natural resources conservation.
·        Dick Mercer has been dedicated to natural resources as a director and board member of the Central Platte NRD since 1972.  Prior to that he was director on the Buffalo-Ravenna Soil and Water Conservation District.  Mercer was nominated by the Central Platte NRD.
·        Senator Maurice Kremer was nominated by the Upper Big Blue NRD for his exceptional leadership in the Nebraska Legislature for the enactment of the laws creating Natural Resources Districts and the Nebraska Groundwater Management Act. The award was given posthumously and was accepted by his son, former State Senator Bob Kremer.

Nebraska Association of Resources Districts award winners include:
·        Director of the Year – Orval Gigstad from Nemaha NRD; nominated by Nemaha NRD
·        Educator of the Year – Jan Zink from Norris High School; nominated by Nemaha NRD
·        Outstanding Grassland Award – Alvin Kruml from Sargent, Nebraska; nominated by Lower Loup NRD
·        Outstanding Community Conservation – City of Sidney; nominated by South Platte NRD
·        Outstanding Tree Planter – Forney Ranch from Alliance, Nebraska; nominated by the Upper Niobrara White NRD

Omaha World-Herald and IANR Master Conservationist Award Winners include:
·        Agriculture - Scott Stout Ranch from Curtis, Nebraska.  Nominated by Doug Whisenhunt, Natural Resources Conservation Services.
·        Community Winner –Six Mile Canal Company from Gothenburg, Nebraska.  Nominated by Ron Bishop, Central Platte NRD.



Tax Structure Should Protect the “Good Life” in Nebraska

Yesterday, the Center for Rural Affairs provided testimony to members of the Nebraska Unicameral’s Tax Modernization Committee in Norfolk. The Committee, composed of 14 state Senators, is holding meetings throughout the state to analyze and make recommendations on what, if any, changes need to be made to Nebraska’s tax structure.

“By many measures Nebraska has an outstanding quality of life – the “Good Life” as we all like to call it,” testified Jon Bailey, Director of Research and Analysis at the Center for Rural Affairs. “The committee should focus on making sure the state has the resources necessary to continue this strong tradition.”

Bailey, testifying on behalf of the Center for Rural Affairs, went on to say that Nebraska needs a tax system that allows the state to invest in things that enhance the Good Life and things average families rely on, like top-notch community schools, world-class universities, and safe communities.

According to Bailey, the recommendations made by the Tax Modernization Committee will direct future tax policy in Nebraska and will have a tremendous impact on Nebraskans, rural and urban alike. The committee should, therefore, focus on policies that create jobs and on making sure Nebraska can invest in things that boost the economy. And finally, the committee should ensure that middle-class and low-income Nebraskans are not paying a higher percentage of their income in taxes than the wealthiest Nebraskans.

“The Center for Rural Affairs been a part of rural Nebraska for 40 years. We live and work in rural Nebraska. We have experience on how the tax system affects farmers, ranchers, small businesses and rural residents and have heard from rural people and rural businesses for 40 years about the state’s tax system. So today we wish to offer some general principles that we hope will guide your work and some basic opinions of the options you have released,” Bailey added.

The general principles Bailey discussed in his testimony for the Center for Rural Affairs included:

    Income Tax. We recommend that the committee make no changes in the personal income tax such as cutting rates or adjusting brackets. The personal income tax is the largest source of the state’s general fund revenues and the only progressive part of the current tax system. Cuts to the personal income tax would drain resources from schools, health care, communities and infrastructure – the things that make the Good Life. Experts you have heard from earlier this summer stated that they see nothing out of line with Nebraska’s personal income tax and its rates. Most Nebraskans would get no benefit from a cut to the personal income tax, with most Nebraskans likely seeing pennies per day from any income tax cut. 

    Sales Tax. We recommend expanding the state sales tax to additional consumer services. The economy and consumer behavior have changed since the state sales tax was created. It is time to bring Nebraska’s state sales tax up-to-date with an economy and consumer behavior that purchases more and relies more on services. All estimates reveal that expanding the sales tax to more services would result in increased revenue that could help pay for other changes in the tax system, particularly changes to property taxes. As you develop legislation to implement changes to the state sales tax we urge you to consider the potential regressive nature of a sales tax and make certain an expanded sales tax does not hit low- and middle-income taxpayers the hardest.

    Property Tax. As you have heard on previous stops in the state, Nebraska residents appear to be most concerned about their property taxes. Property taxes for many are too high and local government entities throughout the state are too reliant on property taxes. As you know, Nebraska ranks among the highest of all states in its reliance on property taxes for local governments and among the lowest in its state aid to K-12 schools. This is increasingly apparent in rural areas where increased agricultural land valuations are causing property taxes to explode, where state aid to schools is inconsistent with a formula based in large part on enrollment that is declining and where residential and commercial property taxes are contributing to abandoned homes and businesses. We have heard concerns about property taxes in rural areas constantly during our 40 year history. This committee now has a mandate to address those concerns. To address those concerns we would offer the following recommendations:

    Increase state aid to local government entities. This will help reduce property taxes while ensuring a more equitable distribution of resources. We would also recommend reinstating state aid for municipalities and counties.

    Enact targeted property tax assistance through a circuit breaker system. We have long supported a circuit breaker as a method to provide property tax assistance, including LB 684 introduced in 2007. Eighteen other states have used circuit breakers to offset high property taxes. We would urge Nebraska to join these states by providing a new and creative means to offset high property taxes. We suggest that a circuit breaker apply to both residential and agricultural property and that it include renters. We would also recommend that the state not expand its current property tax credit program.

    Regular review of tax system and exemptions. This committee is a good start to the review and modernization of Nebraska’s tax system. We suggest that the Legislature maintain the momentum of this committee and develop a system of periodic reviews  of the tax system and exemptions within the system. Other states such as Oregon do  such periodic reviews every five years or so; we urge Nebraska to follow that lead. An  alternative is to build a sunset clause into every exemption or tax expenditure to force review and future debate.

The hearing in Norfolk was the third public hearing this week, the first two taking place in Scottsbluff and North Platte on September 23rd and 24th, respectively.



Stabenow Applauds Klobuchar, Committee for Ag Exports Highlights

Senator Debbie Stabenow, chairwoman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry, Thursday released the following statement regarding a new report by the Joint Economic Committee detailing the key role that agricultural exports are playing in the U.S. economy. The report, The Economic Contribution of America's Farmers and the Importance of Agricultural Exports, shows that the value of agricultural exports have doubled over the last decade and growth in developing countries is expected to increase demand for American agricultural exports even further. The U.S. is the world's leading exporter of agricultural products, with exports reaching a record high of $141.3 billion last year.

"I applaud Sen. Klobuchar and the Joint Economic Committee for highlighting the important role that agricultural exports are playing in the U.S. economy. Agriculture is a bright spot as our economy gets back on track and represents one of the few areas where we actually have a trade surplus. And as the report clearly shows, more exports mean more jobs here at home.

"This is one of the many reasons why we must get a comprehensive, five-year Farm Bill done now. Agriculture supports 16 million American jobs, and the Senate's bipartisan Farm Bill will create jobs, reform agriculture policy and reduce the deficit by tens of billions of dollars. House Republican leaders must now make good on their word, finally appoint conferees and work with us in a bipartisan way to get this done. We are only days away from the expiration of the Farm Bill, so it's critical that we move ahead immediately."



USDA Releases Annual Report of Foreign Investors’ Holdings of U.S. Agricultural Land

USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) has released its annual publication regarding foreign investors’ holdings of United States agricultural land. The publication contains statistics that are current through Dec. 31, 2011.

The report, titled “Foreign Holdings of U.S. Agricultural Land Through December 31, 2011,” is now available on the FSA website at http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/webapp?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=afa.

The data gathered through Dec. 31, 2011, indicate that foreign investors hold an interest in 25,715,588 acres of U.S. agricultural land, which is approximately 2 percent of all privately held U.S. agricultural land, and 1 percent of all land in the U.S. The total foreign-held U.S. agricultural acres as of the last report, dated Dec. 31, 2010, were 24,224,807, resulting in an increase of 1,490,781 acres.

The annual publication includes a wide variety of both annual and cumulative activity reports.  Annual Activity Reports include the following:
     - U.S. Agricultural and Nonagricultural Landholdings Annual Activity of Foreign Investors by State U.S. Agricultural and Nonagricultural Land Acquisitions by Country of Foreign Investor U.S. Agricultural and Nonagricultural Land Dispositions by Country of Foreign Investor

Just a few of the Cumulative Activity Reports within the publication are:
   - U.S. Agricultural Landholdings of Foreign Investors by State U.S. Landholdings of Foreign Investors by Type of Land Use and by State U.S. Agricultural and Nonagricultural Investors, Parcels, Acres and Value by Country of Foreign Investor

The publication’s findings are based on reports submitted to FSA in compliance with the Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act of 1978 (AFIDA). The law was created to establish a nationwide system for collecting information pertaining to foreign ownership in U.S. agricultural land. Foreign investors who buy, sell or hold an interest (other than a security interest) in U.S. agricultural land are required to report such holdings and transactions to the Secretary of Agriculture on AFIDA Report Form FSA-153. The data gleaned from these reports is used in the preparation of an annual report to Congress.