Wednesday September 18th Ag News

Nebraska Fall May See More Precipitation, Threat of Freeze Nonissue

            It could be a wet fall, the University of Nebraska-Lincoln climatologist says.

            The state is seeing an uptick in precipitation just as harvest will be getting underway across Nebraska, said Al Dutcher, state climatologist in the university's Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources.

            "We have a strong monsoonal flow still holding on" in the desert southwest, he said. "We've seen heavy precipitation through the southern and central Rockies with mass flooding. As upper air troughs push into the Central Plains, they are bumping up against this tropical moisture and therefore we get stationary thunderstorm development, which are high precipitation events. Secondarily these are falling on areas that have been burnt by forest fires the past couple years so a lot the precipitation is running off and compounding the flood threat."

            The monsoonal flow has expanded to the western high plains of Kansas and parts of Texas. Western Nebraska also sits on the northern perimeter of this, he said.

            "We do have some potential of seeing improvements in soil moisture levels based on this monsoon flow," he said.

            The brief battle with extreme heat is over, Dutcher said. There could still be a day or two this fall that will hit the 90 degree mark, particularly in Western Nebraska, but for the most part models are showing typical fall temperature swings from warm to cool, warm to cool, etc.

            "And when we get these swings in temperatures, we have the ability to generate precipitation," Dutcher said. The 90 day forecast for the eastern half of the state is for above-normal precipitation. The rest of the state has equal chances of above, normal or below precipitation.

            "Unfortunately, in order to get soil moisture built up this fall, it is going to come at a price, and we would expect to see some harvest delays if the model projections are correct."

            Hurricane Ingrid dumped over a foot of rain in northern Mexico with lesser amounts as far north as the Big Bend, Texas, region. Another storm is projected to follow a similar path over the next seven to 10 day period. These tropical systems will likely enhance an already strong monsoonal flow into the southern Rockies.

            "In addition, we have entered the favorable period when tropical systems generally move up the Baja Peninsula and enhance desert precipitation," Dutcher said. "While it might not eliminate the drought, it will moisten up those lower levels of the atmosphere and that will aid in suppression of the semi-permanent riding pattern."

            It also will allow troughs to deepen into the central and southern Rockies and will likely enhance precipitation patterns across the central and southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains regions.

            This could help increase soil moisture levels and be a positive for winter wheat planting. There is nothing to indicate this would continue through winter and spring, but if this pattern does continue, the state could experience an "interesting winter," Dutcher said.

            In addition, future precipitation events will fall on areas that currently have saturated soils. This should enhance snowmelt next spring as a greater portion of the water in that snow goes to runoff instead of soil infiltration.

            "From the standpoint of crops, it's moisture and the longer we can keep it around the better," Dutcher said.

            As far as the state's first freeze, it may be slightly early in the eastern half of the state, but Dutcher doesn't think it will be a problem as far as growing conditions are concerned.

            The Panhandle and north central part of the state typically see the first freeze around Oct. 7-10. In the southeast part of Nebraska, the freeze date typically is around Oct. 17-24.



Iowa Soybean Association board of directors elects 2014 officers

Six farmers were elected to leadership positions at the Sept. 5 meeting of the Iowa Soybean Association (ISA) board of directors.

Brian Kemp of Sibley took his seat as president and Tom Oswald of Cleghorn was elected president-elect. Rolland Schnell of Newton was chosen as treasurer and Wayne Fredericks of Osage was elected secretary. Jeff Jorgenson of Sidney was also elected to the executive committee.

ISA directors re-elected Mark Jackson of Rose Hill, immediate past president, and Ray Gaesser of Corning to represent Iowa on the American Soybean Association board of directors.

In addition, the directors discussed a number of issues concerning soybean farmers including the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy, consumer outreach efforts, new and continuing crop research, sustainability programs and more during the meeting.

“Iowa soybean farmers look to these leaders as they work to be more efficient and productive on their own farms,” said Kemp. “ISA plays an important role in agriculture, from state to national to international levels;  working to secure and strengthen new and existing markets for soybeans and support our farmers as they continue to be the leaders in national soybean production.”



Northey Encourages All Iowans to Think Safety This Harvest Season

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey encouraged farmers and those living in and traveling through rural Iowa to stay safe this harvest season. Northey issued the reminder as part of National Farm Safety and Health Week which runs from Sept. 15 to 21.

"Harvest is slightly delayed due to the cool, wet start of the growing season, but farmers will soon be busy in the fields and on the roads so it is important everyone in rural Iowa keep safety in mind," Northey said. "Harvest is a great time on the farm, but it is also very busy and can be stressful. It is important everyone working on the farm and Iowans traveling through the rural parts of our state stay alert and take the necessary time to make sure we have another successful and safe harvest season."

Tips for farmers include using the slow moving vehicle emblem on all appropriate tractors and equipment and making sure they are in good shape and visible. Also, be aware of and avoid flowing grain suffocation hazards while unloading bins and wagons. Retrofitting older tractors with a rollover protective structure is another important safety measure.

Harvest season is also a time when those traveling through rural Iowa need to be alert to potentially slow moving equipment and should be prepared to take a little more time if necessary.

The Iowa Department of Transportation has a video entitled "Rural Roadway Crashes -- They're Preventable" that has more information on how to safely travel Iowa's rural roads.

More farm safety information is available from Iowa State University Extension and Outreach at www.abe.iastate.edu/extension-and-outreach/agricultural-health-safety/ or from the Iowa Center for Agricultural Safety and Health (I-CASH) at www.public-health.uiowa.edu/icash/.



STATEMENT OF ADMINISTRATION POLICY
H.R. 3102 – Nutrition Reform and Work Opportunity Act of 2013 (Rep. Lucas, R-OK)

The Administration strongly opposes H.R. 3102, the Nutrition Reform and Work Opportunity Act of 2013. The bill would result in millions of Americans losing access to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which is one of our nation’s strongest defenses against hunger and poverty.  These cuts would affect a broad array of Americans who are struggling to make ends meet, including working families with children, senior citizens, veterans, and adults who are still looking for work.  Slashing SNAP also weakens our nation’s farm and rural economies.

Congress should approach the reauthorization of the Farm Bill in a comprehensive manner. The Administration has called for the enactment of a multi-year Farm Bill that supports rural America while achieving significant deficit reduction.  The President’s Budget proposes specific balanced reforms that would accomplish this goal without creating hardship for vulnerable Americans. The Administration urges Congress to follow that path and reject the harmful cuts contained in H.R. 3102.

If the President were presented with H.R. 3102, his senior advisors would recommend that he veto the bill.

The House Rules Committee met today to spell out the ground rules for the floor debate on a bill that would cut $39 billion over 10 years from the SNAP program. The expected floor debate Thursday will mark the third major political battle over nutrition programs on the House floor since earlier this summer when the House Agriculture Committee's version of the farm bill failed to garner enough votes to pass. 

Should the House Nutrition Title pass, and House leadership names its conferees, both the nutrition titles and agriculture bills from the House and Senate could finally be sent to conference committee.  However, there is less than two weeks in which a compromise bill would have to be worked out, passed by both chambers, and sent to the President for his signature before the current extension of the Farm Bill expires on September 30th. 



Weekly Ethanol Production for 9/13/2013

According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 838,000 barrels per day (b/d) — or 35.20 million gallons daily. That is down 10,000 b/d from the week before. The four-week average for ethanol production stood at 831,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 12.74 billion gallons.

Stocks of ethanol stood at 16.2 million barrels. That is a 0.6% decrease from last week.

Imports of ethanol were 3,000 b/d, down from last week and the lowest in 12 weeks.

Gasoline demand for the week averaged 379.2 million gallons daily, a big rebound over last week.

Expressed as a percentage of daily gasoline demand, daily ethanol production was 9.28%.

On the co-products side, ethanol producers were using 12.706 million bushels of corn to produce ethanol and 93,523 metric tons of livestock feed, 83,377 metric tons of which were distillers grains. The rest is comprised of corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal. Additionally, ethanol producers were providing 4.36 million pounds of corn oil daily.



New Study Refutes Land Use Change Myth

A new report released from researchers in the Netherlands shows that current models assessing the impact of crops grown for biofuel production on land use do not accurately reflect current production and land use realities. Given the impact of these models on bioenergy policy, "Biomass Research" makes a strong case for updating the way in which the true benefits of biofuels are assessed in order to insure policy decisions fully value the environmental benefits of ethanol.

"Ethanol advocates have long understood the major impact that relying upon outdated data or inaccurate models can have on our nation's biofuels policy and, at NCGA we work to correct the information and models," said National Corn Growers Association Ethanol Committee Chair Chad Willis. "This study provides an academically rigorous examination of the specific areas in which ethanol modeling and data are currently lacking on a large scope. Farmers have made amazing strides to increase efficiency and sustainability in the past few decades, and the models and information used to assess the impact of biofuel production should reflect these gains. American ethanol benefits our environment as well as our economy and our energy security. It only makes sense that our energy policy should take these incredible benefits into account thus maximizing them for the good of all Americans."

Looking at land use and biomass production balances in 34 major biofuel-producing nations, the report concludes that increases in acreage devoted to biofuel feedstock production were more than offset by productivity gains on acreage devoted to food production between 2000 and 2010. These productivity gains came about primarily from the use of double cropping practices, yield gains and other increased efficiencies.

Additionally, the study also notes that, during the same period, urbanization and other causes were responsible for the loss of much more agricultural land than biofuel feedstock production.

As predictive models used to form public policy fail to account for these significant technological, cultural and policy trends impacting assessment of indirect land use change, the study's authors conclude the models need improvement. They also contend the use of historical data provides a more reliable tool for estimating indirect land use change and setting bioenergy policy than the current models.



Chain Restaurants Partake in Day of Drive-Thru Politics

The National Council of Chain Restaurants is back at it today talking to members of Congress in an attempt to make their case against the Renewable Fuel Standard. Their “Lobby Day” comes just as Fuels America released new polling numbers showing a large majority of people believe fast food restaurants should support renewable fuels, and that oil and gasoline are the real factors behind food prices.

Bob Dinneen, President and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), highlights the difference between the views of the chain restaurants and their clientele, “This is clearly an example of ‘drive-thru’ politics. Today’s Fuels America poll shows that more than 8 out of 10 people believe the truth, that oil prices are driving food prices. The big shots who flew into Washington today want Congress to believe that ethanol and the RFS are driving up the price of corn and food. They are quick to blame it all on ethanol, ignoring the impact of high oil prices. But they are here under a false premise because ethanol demand is not driving corn prices higher. In fact, corn prices are actually falling in anticipation of record crops and an increase in world production. The real question is when will fast food restaurants reduce their prices to reflect their lower costs?”

Dinneen continued, “Chain restaurants, as experts in drive-thru’s, should be the most cognizant of the impact of oil prices on food and transportation. There is a near perfect relationship between the UN Food Price Index and World Crude Oil prices, magnifying the negative impact of Big Oil. Additionally, since the RFS was enacted in 2005, oil prices have risen on average 10% a year, while retail food prices have only increased an average of 2.9% a year. The facts are clear, oil prices are the culprit behind rising food prices, not ethanol.”

Facts worth noting:
• Ethanol is not produced from the sweet corn that humans consume. It is made from field corn, which is used for livestock feed and industrial purposes.
• One-third of every bushel of grain used in the ethanol process is returned to the market as nutrient-dense livestock and poultry feed.
• Less than 3% of the global grain supply was used by the U.S. ethanol industry in 2012.
• 34.4 million metric tons of animal feed were produced by ethanol plants in 2012.
• 7 hamburgers per person worldwide could have been produced from the ethanol industry’s 2012 animal feed output. That is 50 billion hamburgers.
• Only 16 cents of every dollar spent on food is related to agricultural ingredients. The remaining 84 cents goes to energy, packaging, food processing and other costs.



Report: Farm Bill Might Violate Trade Rules

The new U.S. farm bill might violate World Trade Organization rules against trade-distorting subsidies, major U.S. business groups said on Monday in an appeal to lawmakers to revamp the bill, which is already facing slim odds of passage. According to Reuters, an adverse decision by the WTO could expose U.S. exports to retaliatory tariffs if there is a challenge. It would be an ironic turn, since the farm bill was intended in part to resolve a WTO ruling against U.S. cotton subsidies.

Leaders of the Senate and House Agriculture committees had no immediate response on Monday to the assertion by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers and National Foreign Trade Council.

"We think meeting our international obligations is an important element of maintaining an open trading system, from which the United States benefits," said Bill Reinsch, head of the trade council.

In a letter, the groups said the farm bills pending in the House and Senate carried some of the same provisions that WTO ruled against in the cotton case. They said the bills each "run a substantial risk" of violating WTO rules on farm subsidies.

A House provision that ties crop payments to actual plantings of the crop could "quickly invite other nations to initiate dispute settlement against the United States - and do so with good chances of success," they said.

Brazil won the right to impose $830 million in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods when it won a WTO challenge of U.S. cotton subsidies after a long-running case. It has delayed action while awaiting U.S. reforms. Officials warned in August that their patience was not endless, reports Reuters.

An analysis by the international law firm White & Case said "potential complainants include Brazil, China and Argentina." It said the House provision was the most likely trigger for a WTO case and highly likely to be ruled a violation.