Friday, September 19, 2014

Friday September 19 Cattle on Feed Report + Ag News

NEBRASKA CATTLE ON FEED UP 2 PERCENT 

Nebraska feedlots, with capacities of 1,000 or more head, contained 2.13 million cattle on feed on September 1, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. This inventory was up 2 percent from last year.  Placements during August totaled 425,000 head, down 3 percent from 2013.   Fed cattle marketings for the month of August totaled 440,000 head, up 5 percent from last year.   Other disappearance during August totaled 15,000 head, up 5,000 head from a year ago.



IOWA CATTLE ON FEED DOWN THREE PERCENT


Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in Iowa for all feedlots totaled 1,050,000 on September 1, 2014 according to the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Iowa Field Office.  The inventory is down 3 percent from August 1, 2014 and down 2 percent from September 1, 2013.  Feedlots with a capacity greater than 1,000 head had 580,000 head on feed, down 3 percent from last month but up 5 percent from last year.  Feedlots with a capacity less than 1,000 head had 470,000 head on feed, down 2 percent from last month and down 10 percent from last year.

Placements during August totaled 120,000 head, an increase of 26 percent from last month but down 14 percent from last year.   Feedlots with  a  capacity  greater  than  1,000  head  placed  63,000  head,  up  13  percent  from  last month  but  down 5 percent from last year.  Feedlots with a capacity less than 1,000 head placed 57,000 head. This is up 46 percent from last month but down 22 percent from last year.

Marketings for August were 143,000 head, down 11 percent from  last month but up 1 percent from  last year. Feedlots with a capacity greater than 1,000 head marketed 80,000 head, up 8 percent from last month and up 10 percent from last year.   Feedlots with a capacity less than 1,000 head marketed 63,000 head, down 27 percent from last month and down 9 percent from last year. Other disappearance totaled 7,000 head.



United States Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent

   
Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 9.8 million head on September 1, 2014. The inventory was 1 percent below September 1, 2013.

Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.72 million, 3 percent below 2013. Net placements were 1.65 million head. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 410,000, 600-699 pounds were 280,000, 700-799 pounds were 395,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 635,000. For the month of August placements are the lowest since the series began in 1996.

Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.69 million, 10 percent below 2013. August marketings are the lowest since the series began in 1996.  Other disappearance totaled 66,000 during August, 32 percent above 2013.



Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and US: 2013 and 2014

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                 :                 :             September 1, 2014             
                  :                 :                 :--------------------------------------------
       State      :September 1, 2013: August 1, 2014  :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of 
                  :                 :                 :    Number    :previous year :previous month
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :      -------------- 1,000 head -------------           ----- percent ----     
Arizona ..........:        266               262             257            97             98     
California .......:        505               420             415            82             99     
Colorado .........:        830               810             800            96             99     
Idaho ............:         190               185             180            95             97     
Iowa .............:          550               600             580           105             97     
Kansas ...........:      1,980            1,900          1,950           98            103     
Minnesota ........:        101               116             113           112             97     
Nebraska .........:      2,090            2,160          2,130           102             99     
Oklahoma .........:        280               240             245            88            102     
South Dakota .....:       170               190             185           109             97     
Texas ............:        2,430            2,470           2,450           101             99     
Washington .......:       184               189             199           108            105     
Other States .....:        300               295             295            98            100     
United States ....:      9,876            9,837          9,799           99            100     
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Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and US: '13 and '14

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :              :              :             During August 2014            
                  :    During    :    During    :--------------------------------------------
       State      : August 2013  :  July 2014   :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of 
                  :              :              :    Number    :previous year :previous month
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :    ------------ 1,000 head -----------           ----- percent ----     
Arizona ..........:       23             23             21            91             91     
California .......:        55             39             40            73            103     
Colorado .........:      145             90            145           100            161     
Idaho ............:         52             37             33            63             89     
Iowa .............:         66             56             63            95            113     
Kansas ...........:      380            400            410           108            103     
Minnesota ........:       13             10             15           115            150     
Nebraska .........:      440            375            425            97            113     
Oklahoma .........:       47             32             50           106            156     
South Dakota .....:       28             20             30           107            150     
Texas ............:        440            410            410            93            100     
Washington .......:       43             37             44           102            119     
Other States .....:       40             31             34            85            110     
United States ....:    1,772         1,560        1,720          97            110     
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and US: '13 and '14

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :              :              :             During August 2014            
                  :    During    :    During    :--------------------------------------------
       State      : August 2013  :  July 2014   :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of 
                  :              :              :    Number    :previous year :previous month
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :    ------------ 1,000 head -----------           ----- percent ----     
Arizona ..........:       18             26             25           139             96     
California .......:       60             47             40            67             85     
Colorado .........:      180            145            150            83            103     
Idaho ............:        46             41             37            80             90     
Iowa .............:        73             74             80           110            108     
Kansas ...........:      390            390            345            88             88     
Minnesota ........:       20             15             17            85            113     
Nebraska .........:      420            465            440           105             95     
Oklahoma .........:       51             46             44            86             96     
South Dakota .....:       37             39             34            92             87     
Texas ............:        490            415            415            85            100     
Washington .......:       47             40             33            70             83     
Other States .....:       39             44             32            82             73     
United States ....:    1,871        1,787        1,692           90             95     
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Pork Checkoff Announces 2014 Pork Industry Environmental Stewards


The Pork Checkoff, along with its cosponsor, National Hog Farmer magazine, has selected two pork farms to be honored as the 2014 Pork Industry Environmental Stewards. The award, now in its 20th year, recognizes producers who are dedicated to safeguarding the environment and contributing to their local communities.

The 2014 award recipients are:

• Bruce and Jenny Wessling, Grand Junction, Iowa
– The Wessling family raise about 18,000 feeder-to-finish pigs annually on their farm set amid 4,600 acres of corn and soybeans near Grand Junction, Iowa. Three naturally ventilated pig barns feature deep-pit manure storage and are surrounded by a natural vegetative buffer of evergreen and deciduous trees and shrubs. To view a video about the Wessling’s farm, please click here.

• David and Sharon Stephens, Malta Bend, Mo.
– The Stephens family work on a farrow-to-wean farm that produces about 190,000 pigs per year. They also raise 600 acres of corn and soybeans on the adjacent land.  Tunnel-ventilated sow barns feature cool cells for animal comfort in hot weather, as well as shallow-pit manure storage and shower-in/shower-out facilities for enhanced biosecurity.  To view a video about the Stephens’ farm, please click here.

The judges for the 2014 award represented pork producers and environmental organizations from across the country. The committee reviewed applications from pig farmers who are committed to upholding the ideal relationship between pork production and the environment.

The applicants' farms were evaluated based on their manure management systems, water and soil- conservation practices, odor-control strategies, farm aesthetics and neighbor relations and wildlife habitat promotion. The applicants also authored an essay on the importance of environmental stewardship on their farm and how they implement innovative ideas to create tangible actions to safeguard and protect the environment.

"The 2014 Stewards clearly understand the comprehensive approach that producers need to take in raising pigs today," said Lynn Harrison, chair of the Environmental Stewards selection subcommittee and former president of the National Pork Board. "These farms clearly show how bright ideas can become innovative solutions. From relying more on solar power to giving back to their communities, the 2014 Stewards have put their own stamp on raising high-quality pork for customers."

Like past Stewards, the Wessling and Stephens families manage their farms with an eye on sustainability and on their local communities. And they do so while adhering to the U.S. pork industry's We CareSM ethical principles.

The 2014 Environmental Stewards will be recognized by their peers at the 2015 National Pork Industry Forum next March in San Antonio, Texas. Videos featuring their farms can be viewed now on pork.org.



2014 BIO Livestock Biotech Summit Concludes with a Glance into the Future of Animal Biotechnology


The Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) 2014 Livestock Biotech Summit three day programming touched on issues such as engaging consumers, animal welfare, the promise of the technology. The Summit closed with remarks by renowned animal scientist Dr. Jim Murray, Professor of Animal Science and Population Health at the University of California at Davis.  This unique conference was held September 16-18, 2014, at the Sioux Falls Convention Center in Sioux Falls, SD.

"We need to find a way to feed the world in sustainable way through means that require less land, less water and less resources," said Murray. "Genetically Engineered livestock are needed to help feed a rapidly growing population’s demand for protein."

Celebrating its third Summit, BIO hosted more than 150 attendees at this year’s conference – of which 30 percent were at a Director or an Executive career level while the majority of attendees consisted of researchers, scientists, academics, and chief scientific officers.  Additionally, this year BIO hosted several academic students from the local universities, including South Dakota State University (SDSU), as well as the Future Farmers of America (FFA) South Dakota chapter.

“The 2014 Livestock Biotech Summit successfully brought together all parties and partners within the animal biotechnology community to address concerns and to help find solutions to current challenges being encountered within the industry,” said Cathy Enright, Executive Vice President, Food and Agriculture at BIO.  “Additionally, we were fortunate to hold this year’s Summit in Sioux Falls, South Dakota which houses a plethora of innovative animal biotech companies and research facilities, making it an ideal location to hold these important discussions and providing attendees with a first-hand view into this critical industry.”

High profile speakers for this year’s Summit included Dr. James Murray, Professor Animal Science and Population Health at the University of California at Davis, Dr. Richard Raymond, former undersecretary of agriculture for food safety at the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Dr. Sonny Ramaswamy, director of the USDA’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA), and journalist Christie Nicolson, the Alan Alda Center for Communicating Science. 

Visit BIO’s Livestock Biotech Summit website for post-Summit blogs and tweets highlighting session discussions and keynote presentations.  The 2014 Livestock Biotech Summit examined the scientific potential and political challenges of using animal biotechnology to improve human and animal health, food production and the environment. 



Pro Farmer Revises Corn, Bean Estimates


The Pro Farmer corn and soybean estimates have been revised to reflect late-season weather conditions and expected reductions to planted and harvested acreage. Pro Farmer now estimates the corn crop at 14.063 billion bu. on a national average yield of 172 bu. per acre. We now estimate the soybean crop at 3.884 billion bu. on a nation average yield of 47.0 bu. per acre.

Acreage: Analysis of Farm Service Agency (FSA) certified acreage data for September indicates USDA’s June corn and soybean planted acreage figures were too high. The new data suggests corn and soybean acreage will be revised down sharply in the October Crop Production Report, when NASS usually starts incorporating the FSA certified acreage data into its acreage estimates. In fact, our analysis indicates the cuts will be so big, we are questioning what we are missing.

When applying the historical difference between FSA’s September acreage data and NASS’s final acreage figure back to 2011 (the first year USDA made monthly updates to certified acreage data public), it would suggest corn plantings were overstated by around 3.7 million acres in June, while soybean plantings were overestimated by 2.3 million acres — a combined 6 million acres.

Refined analysis of the data suggests corn acres were estimated 3.212 million acres too high in June, while soybean acres were 1.967 million acres too high. Using historical harvested acreage percentages, it would suggest corn harvested acres are currently estimated 2.926 million acres too high, while soybean harvested acreage are overstated by 1.932 million. However, we feel these are “worst-case” scenarios and therefore believe corn harvested acreage will be trimmed by 2.072 million and soybean harvested acreage will be cut by 1.415 million acres from June. That would put final corn harvested acres at 81.767 million and harvested bean acres at 82.643 million.

Yield: We know "big crops get bigger," but we feel USDA "caught" the bulk of the yield increase with its September estimate. There are also some factors like the mid-September frost and SDS that will take the top end off yields for some. While recent cold weather wasn't enough to end the growing season, there was enough damage to prevent yields in some areas from expanding. The SDS outbreak didn't come early enough and wasn't widespread enough to have a major yield impact, but it too will cap yield growth for some. When we plugged our new state yield expectations into our production spreadsheets, it produced a yield of 172 bu. per acre for corn and 74.0 bu. per acre for soybeans -- up only 0.3 bu. from USDA's September corn estimate and only 0.4 bu. higher than USDA's September soybean yield forecast.

Note: At our new harvested acreage figure, USDA would have to increase its corn yield 4.06 bu. per acre to fully offset the production loss. For soybeans, the national average yield would have to increase 0.35 bu. per acre to offset the anticipated production loss due to fewer acres. If the historical difference is applied to the numbers, it would take a 6.15-bu. rise in corn yields and a 1.35-bu. hike in soybean yields to fully offset the acreage decline.

Higher yields don't mean bigger crop estimates: 
Due to the anticipated drop in corn and soybean acreage, our corn estimate is 332 million bu. less than USDA’s September figure and 30 million bu. less than we forecast after Crop Tour. Our soybean crop estimate is 29 million bu. less than USDA’s September forecast but 72 million bu. more than we estimated in late August.





Departments of the Navy, Energy and Agriculture Invest in Construction of Three Biorefineries to Produce Drop-In Biofuel for Military

As part of a 2011 Presidential directive, the Departments of Navy, Energy, and Agriculture announced today that three companies have been awarded contracts to construct and commission biorefineries capable of producing “drop-in” biofuels to meet the transportation needs of the military and private sector. Made through the Department of Defense’s (DOD) Defense Protection Act (DPA) of 1950, the awards support the Administration’s goals to boost and diversify the domestic fuel supply base, make American warfighters less beholden to volatile oil markets, and strengthen national security.  

“The contracts being announced today will help expand the operational capability of our Navy and Marine Corps around the world,” said Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus.  “In today’s complex fiscal environment, we are balancing our mission with our resources and we must be innovative and forward-thinking.  Programs like these help keep our operational capabilities on the cutting edge. This is how Sailors and Marines defend our great nation.”

“This is a tremendous announcement for America's national security and our economy," said Agriculture Secretary Vilsack. "Any time our military can use more American grown fuels instead of relying on foreign sources it makes our armed forces more energy secure. And the expansion of our advanced biofuel sector means the creation of good jobs across the country, especially in many of our rural communities."

“Advanced biomass-based transportation fuels have the potential to provide a reliable and cost-effective alternative to traditional fuel sources,” said Deputy Energy Secretary Daniel Poneman. “By advancing technologies that reduce our carbon emissions, this multi-agency partnership is demonstrating that by protecting our energy and environmental security, we will enhance our national security as well.”

In total, these projects will produce more than 100 million gallons of military grade fuel beginning in 2016 and 2017 at a price competitive with their petroleum counterparts.

The drop-in alternative fuels can be blended at a 50/50 ratio with traditional fossil fuels. This blend was successfully demonstrated during the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) demonstration in 2012 for ships and planes, showing firsthand that this fuel can be utilized in Navy’s warfighting platforms with no degradation to performance or mission.  As these fuels become more available, the Department of the Navy will make advanced drop-in biofuel a regular part of its bulk fuel procurement, ushering in the “new normal” of Naval supremacy.

The companies receiving federal investments for the construction and commissioning of biorefineries are:

Emerald Biofuels: To build an 82 million gallon per year refinery on the Gulf Coast using waste fats to create military grade fuel.

Fulcrum BioEnergy: To build a 10 million gallon per year refinery in McCarran, Nev. using municipal solid waste as its feedstock and the Fischer-Tropsch process to create fuel. On Sept. 4, USDA announced a $105 million Biorefinery Assistance Program loan guarantee to Fulcrum BioEnergy for the construction of this facility.

Red Rock Biofuels: To build a 12 million gallon per year refinery in Lakeview, Ore. using woody biomass, or the by-products of forest management, as its feedstock and the Fischer-Tropsch process to create a refined product.

This effort brought by the U.S. Departments of Agriculture, Energy, and Navy, along with partners in the private sector, will expand military fuel sources, improving the reliability of our overall fuel supply, adding resilience against supply disruptions, and giving the military more fuel options to maintain its readiness and defend the national security interests of the United States.                



Farmers must Notify FSA of Incorrect Acreage History before Sept. 26


Under the 2014 Farm Bill, landowners will have a one-time opportunity to reallocate base acres and update payment yields of covered commodities on a farm.

The Farm Service Agency sent out letters to farmers and landowners on July 28 notifying them of their planted and considered planted acreage history from 2008 to 2012. The Summary Acreage History Report shows a farm’s base acres, counter-cyclical yields, and 2008-2012 planted, prevented, double-crop, and subsequent acres (acres planted after failed or prevented). This FSA acreage history for a farm is important and will be the basis for making base reallocation decisions.

Farm owners or operators need to cross check with farm records that the planted and considered planted acreage recorded by FSA is correct. If the information is correct no further action is needed at this time, but if any information appears to be incomplete or incorrect, contact your local FSA office before Sept. 26.



ASA Supports Rail Reform Bill Passed by Senate Committee


The Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee this week unanimously passed  S. 2777, the Surface Transportation Board Reauthorization Act, sponsored by Sen. Rockefeller (D-WV) and Sen. Thune (R-SD) and supported by the American Soybean Association.  The bill would reauthorize and make changes to the Surface Transportation Board (STB), which oversees the freight rail industry.  The bill contains several provisions that would provide new authorities to the STB, including the authority to initiate an investigation of unreasonable rail practices, rather than waiting for a shipper or group of shippers to file a formal complaint with the agency.  The legislation would also streamline rate case procedures, create time limits for determinations, establish a meaningful alternative dispute resolution process and require an analysis of the rules under which the agency operates.

ASA signed onto an agricultural industry letter expressing support for the measure as well as a broader business and industry support letter that was coordinated by the American Chemistry Council. While the bill is not expected to be enacted into law this year, it does bring additional attention to the rail service issues being experienced in the northern tier and provides additional pressure on the rail companies to address the problems.



House Passes Jobs Bill


Thursday, the House passed The Jobs for America Act (H.R. 4) by a vote of 253 to 163. Bob McCan, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association president and Victoria, Texas, cattleman said this was a positive move for cattle producers and a solid step toward stabilizing the economy.

“The Jobs bill passed by the House contains a number of priorities for our producer members including some key tax provisions,” said McCan. “The passage of this legislation brings our producers one step closer to having the certainty they need to make financial preparations and needed investments in this tax year.”

Included in the Act is the America’s Small Business Tax Relief Act and other provisions directed toward the Internal Revenue Service, which makes section 179 expensing and bonus depreciation permanent. The bill also contains the Regulations From the Executive in Need of Scrutiny Act, requiring Congress to take an up-or-down vote on all new major rules that would have an economic impact of more than $100 million annually before they can be enforced. And critical for many public lands and western ranchers is the inclusion of the Restoring Healthy Forests for Healthy Communities Act addressing catastrophic wildfire and forest mismanagement.

“Many of the provisions contained in this bill are critical for the cattle industry; legislation that extends certainty in the tax code, reins in the regulatory train wreck our members face from administration agencies like the EPA and aims to better manage our public lands and resources,” said McCan. “We appreciate the efforts of the House in bringing this bill to the floor and urge the Senate to take action.”



August Milk Production up 2.6 Percent

                       
Milk production in the 23 major States during August totaled 16.2 billion pounds, up 2.6 percent from August 2013. July revised production, at 16.4 billion pounds, was up 4.0 percent from July 2013.  The July revision represented a decrease of 1 million pounds or less than 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.  Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,885 pounds for August, 35 pounds above August 2013. This is the highest production per cow for the month of August since the 23 State series began in 2003.  The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.58 million head, 60,000 head more than August 2013, but 1,000 head less than July 2014.

August Milk Production Across the United States up 2.5 Percent

Milk production in the United States during August totaled 17.2 billion pounds, up 2.5 percent from August 2013.  Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,856 pounds for August, 37 pounds above August 2013.  The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.28 million head, 47,000 head more than August 2013, but 1,000 head less than July 2014.

IOWA:  Milk production  in  Iowa during August  2014  totaled  387 million  pounds,  up  less  than  1  percent  from August  2013 according  to  the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Milk Production  report. The average number of milk cows during August, at 208,000 head, was unchanged from both last month and a year ago. Monthly production per cow averaged 1,860 pounds in August 2014, up 10 pounds from last August.



Dairy Situation and Outlook

By Bob Cropp, Professor Emeritus University of Wisconsin Extension


September dairy product prices and milk prices continue to set new record highs. Butter on the CME which averaged $2.59 per pound in August, showed strength all month reaching $3 per pound on September 12th and increased to $3.06 per pound on the 19th. Cheddar barrels averaged $2.18 per pound in August, started the month at $2.3625 per pound and on the 19th it had increased to 2.43 per pound. The 40-pound cheddar block price also averaged $2.18 per pound in August and on the 19th increased to $2.45. Dry whey prices have held near $0.65 per pound. The only weakness has been nonfat dry milk prices which have fallen to $1.375 per pound on the CME. The Class III price for September will be near $24.55, $2.30 higher than August, the highest this year and $6.40 higher than a year ago. While nonfat dry milk prices have slipped the higher butter prices will put the Class IV price near $22.45, 0.57 lower than August but still $3.00 higher than a year ago. The All Milk Price will near $26 for September and $5.90 higher than a year ago.

Two major factors for these higher prices have been strong domestic sales and exports. Despite higher butter and cheese prices buyers of butter and cheese have bid up prices to get product to build stocks for the upcoming strong sales period later this fall. January through July exports compared to a year earlier were 37% higher for butter, 31% higher for cheese, 11% higher for nonfat dry milk and 5% higher for dry whey. On a total solids basis exports were equivalent to 16.5% of U.S. milk production. These domestic sales and exports have tightened stocks. As of July 31st butter stocks were 42% lower than a year ago, American cheese stocks 6% lower, total cheese stocks 8% lower and dry why stocks 5% lower. Nonfat dry milk was the only product with higher stocks than a year ago at 21.3%.

But these higher prices will not hold. Opinions differ widely as to how quickly and how far prices will fall as we end this year and for 2015. High prices could eventually temper domestic sales of butter and cheese. World prices of butter, cheese, skim milk powder and whole milk powder have fallen substantially and are now well below U.S. prices making U.S. products less competitive on the world market. World prices have fallen primarily because of a recovery in milk production in all major exporting countries and China backing off on very aggressive buying earlier in the year. July butter and dry whey exports already dropped below year ago with butter exports 39% lower and dry whey exports 17% lower. Nonfat dry milk exports were just 1% higher. Cheese exports were still 18% higher due to fulfilling previous contracts, but new orders have softened. Record milk prices along with lower feed cost have resulted in very favorable margins for dairy producers to increase U.S. milk production. As milk production increases so does the production of dairy products. Compared to a year earlier July butter production was 2.6% higher, American cheese production 9.5% higher, total cheese production 7% higher and nonfat dry milk production 42.7% higher.

USDA’s estimated U.S. milk production compared to a year earlier was 3.9% higher for July and 2.5% higher for September. An increase in the number of milk cows has been anticipated. But, cow numbers are increasing slowly as cull cow prices remain high and the supply of dairy replacements is lower than two years ago. Milk cow numbers for August actually fell by 1,000 head from July and were just 0.5% higher than a year ago. Only 74,000 head have been added thus far this year. Of the 23 reporting states the following nine had fewer milk cows than a year ago: California, Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Virginia and Wisconsin. The relatively stronger increase in milk production was due to improved milk per cow. Only two states had lower milk per cow, Oregon and Texas. August milk per cow was 2.0% higher than a year ago. Leading states in increases in August milk production compared to last year were Florida +8.1%, Colorado +8.0%, Michigan +6.7%, Texas 6.2% and Kansas 5.8%. Of the five leading dairy states that produce more than half of U.S. milk production, production was up just 1.4% in California, 1.2% in Wisconsin, 2.7% in New York, 3.1% in Idaho, and 0.5% in Minnesota.

By December we could see butter prices around $1.90 per pound and near $1.70 early into 2015. Cheese could be about $1.95 per pound by December, $1.80 early into 2015 and in the mid-$1.70s by summer. Dry whey could be below $0.50 early into 2015 and nonfat dry milk around $1.35.These prices would put the Class III price near $19.30 for December, around $18 by January and in the $17s by spring and summer. As butter prices weaken the Class IV price will fall even faster to around $18 by December and in the low $17s early into 2015. These are substantial declines in milk prices. Lower feed costs will help to soften the impact on dairy producers, but margins will not be as favorable as this year. This has been a good year for dairy producers helping them recover financially from the extremely depressed milk prices of 2009 and very high feed prices the fall of 2012 and winterof 2013 as well as increase costs of other production expenses. Average yearly prices for 2014 will all be record highs with Class III near $22.30, $4.40 higher than 2013, Class IV $22.20, $3.15 higher than 2013, and the All Milk Price $23.90, $3.85 higher than 2013.



Bringing News of 2014 U.S. Corn Crop Overseas


Japan and Korea are two key markets for U.S. corn, importing 11.7 million metric tons (460.6 million bushels) and 4.9 million tons (192.9 million bushels) for the 2013/2014 marketing year. Yet, a high level of engagement with the industry, trade and government is still needed to defend U.S. market share.

Farmers and staff representing the U.S. Grains Council traveled to these two markets Sept. 7 to 14 to engage key buyers and end-users, providing insights on the current U.S. corn crop condition as well as the global supply and demand outlook. The Council delegation included grain producers from Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri and Ohio as well as a distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS) marketing manager.

The Japanese and Korean buyers and end-users were very pleased to hear about this year’s abundant, high-quality U.S. corn crop that will be available for export in the coming year. This delegation helped build on the established relationships between the United States and two of its key international markets, stressing the importance of trade and promoting the United States as the preferred, reliable, long-term supplier of quality corn and related products.

The mission completed a seminar in Japan that was attended by more than 160 end-users and importers and met with three different U.S. grain buyers and government organizations. While in Korea, the mission visited two key buying organizations, toured a grain handling facility and hosted a seminar for more than 70 end-users, independent buyers, buying group leaders, traders and reporters.

Topics covered during the seminars included the producers’ perspective on the 2014 U.S. corn crop; harvest and quality; technologies used by U.S. producers; and the supply and demand outlooks for corn and DDGS.

These types of missions are essential for building demand and fostering relationships around the world for U.S. coarse grains and co-products.



Exploring Markets for U.S. Ethanol Exports


Representatives from the U.S. Grains Council (USGC), Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) and Growth Energy traveled this week to Japan and Korea to explore the potential for U.S. ethanol in those markets.

The trip is part of a wider look at potential overseas markets for this renewable fuel, which is in increased demand due to mandates for cleaner fuel and its overall affordability.

Earlier this year, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that ethanol exports could be promoted under the Market Access Program (MAP), a farm bill initiative through which the Council partners with USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) to promote the export of corn, barley, sorghum and their co-products.

The mission’s objective in both Korea and Japan was to identify contacts and open a strategic discussion with key industry and government leaders involved in biofuels in the two countries; understand those leaders’ visions for the future of biofuels; and explore areas of common interest to advance the growth of biofuels supply, demand and trade.

The team of U.S. ethanol industry representatives met with energy researchers, an ethanol trade association and Korean ethanol producers to discuss the current state of biofuels in Korea. A highlight for the team in was touring a Korean ethanol plant and research facility. The team also met with government officials, a trading company and policy groups in Japan.

“We now have a clearer understanding of the current supply and demand for biofuels in Japan and Korea,” said Eric Mosbey, Lincolnland Agri-Energy LLC general manager, who participated in the mission.

“These meetings opened a dialogue with key buyers and end-users about U.S. ethanol as a clean, renewable fuel source. This mission is the foundation for future conversations and potentially sales.”

Upon return, the Council will collaborate with USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS), RFA and Growth Energy to shift into market development activities based on the information gained from this mission.

The Council is planning to conduct two more regional market assessment programs this year, in Southeast Asia and Latin America.



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