Monday January 5 Ag News

NEBRASKA CROP AND WEATHER CONDITION - DEC 2014

For the month of December 2014, temperatures averaged 0 to 4 degrees above normal in central and western parts of the State, and 4 to 6 degrees above normal in the east, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Over one foot of snow was received in the Panhandle, providing protection from cold temperatures for winter wheat. Warmer temperatures in the east prevented the accumulation of snow, allowing field work to continue. Topsoil moisture supplies rated 4 percent very short, 20 short, 75 adequate, and 1 surplus. Subsoil moisture supplies rated 9 percent very short, 18 short, 72 adequate, and 1 surplus.

Field Crops Report:
Winter wheat condition rated 0 percent very poor, 4 poor, 39 fair, 50 good, and 7 excellent.

Livestock Report:
Cattle and calf conditions rated 0 percent very poor, 1 poor, 14 fair, 75 good, and 10 excellent. Sheep and lamb conditions rated 0 percent very poor, 0 poor, 15 fair, 77 good, and 8 excellent.  Hay and roughage supplies rated 0 percent very short, 4 short, 93 adequate, and 3 surplus.  Stock water supplies rated 1 percent very short, 6 short, 92 adequate, and 1 surplus.



IOWA MONTHY CROP AND WEATHER CONDITION REPORT - DEC 2014

December saw temperatures mostly above normal which allowed operations to catch up on bulldozing, tiling, and feedlot work not completed in November due to cold temperatures according to the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. Average precipitation for the month was also below normal.

As December came to a close, topsoil moisture levels rated 0 percent very short, 9 percent short, 87 percent adequate, and 4 percent surplus. West Central portion of Iowa reported the highest moisture level with 98 percent in adequate to surplus.

December’s mostly mild and dry weather led to higher levels of grain movement. One-third of grain movement in December 2014 was rated moderate to heavy, while only one-quarter of the movement last year at this time was rated moderate to heavy. In some areas most grain movement headed directly to ethanol plants, with limited movement to local elevators.

Availability of hay and roughage supplies was 0 percent very short, 5 percent short, 84 percent adequate, and 11 percent surplus. Livestock conditions were reported as normal for the month of December, with some feedlots experiencing rut problems where muddy lots have frozen.

IOWA PRELIMINARY WEATHER SUMMARY
Provided by Harry Hillaker, State Climatologist, Iowa Department of Agriculture & Land Stewardship
General Summary. Iowa temperatures averaged 28.2° or 5.3°above normal while precipitation totaled 1.12 inches or 0.22 inches below normal. This ranks as the 33 rd warmest and 70th wettest December among 142 years of records.

Temperatures. The cold weather pattern that dominated the month of November persisted only into the first three days of December.

Above normal temperatures prevailed on all but two days between the 4th and 28th. There were two prolonged periods averaging more than ten degrees warmer than normal from the 12th through the 15 th and from the 21 st through the 26th when overnight low temperatures were frequently higher than typical daytime high readings. The month’s highest temperatures of 60° were recorded on the 14th at Shenandoah and Sidney. Subzero temperatures were confined to only December 1 st, and again over the last four days of the month. Primghar and Sioux Center recorded the lowest temperatures of the month with -15° readings on the morning of the 30th while wind chills bottomed out at -33° the same morning at Storm Lake. Soils, which had frozen to a depth of three to eight inches during the unusually cold November, were completed thawed in many areas by Christmas. However, frost depths quickly returned to the 3 to 8 inch range in response to sharply colder weather at the end of December.

Heating Degree Day Totals. Home heating requirements averaged 23% less than last December and 13% less than normal for the month. Heating requirements thus far this winter season (since July 1) are running 13% less than last year at this time but are 1% more than normal.

Precipitation. December began very dry with no measurable precipitation anywhere in the state until the 7 th. Most of the month’s precipitation came in two events. The first storm system brought light to moderate rain statewide from the 14th to the 16th with the rain changing to very light snow in the far northwest late in the event. The second event also brought light to moderate rain statewide between the 22nd and 24th before changing over to one to four inches of snow across the northwest one-half of the state. One last event brought one to four inches of snow to the northwest one-third of Iowa on the night of the 26th. Monthly precipitation totals, coming mostly as rain, were above normal over most of northwestern Iowa but decreased to about one-half of normal over the far southeast. Preliminary totals varied from 0.59 at Fort Madison to 2.52 inches at Little Sioux. The statewide average snowfall for the month was only 1.5 inches or 7.8 inches below normal. This is the lowest December snow total since 2006 and 12th lowest among 128 years of records. Numerous locations in eastern Iowa had no measurable snow during the month such as Davenport, Dubuque and Iowa City. Saint Ansgar reported the most snow with 7.3 inches.




Nebraska Cattlemen Foundation Honors Industry Professionals
Nebraska Cattlemen Foundation (NCF) President, Scott Langemeier presented awards to industry professionals at the NCF lunch program held December 11, 2014 during the Nebraska Cattlemen Annual Convention and Trade Show in Kearney.

The Friend of the Foundation award is presented annually to a person and/or business that has shared endless amounts of time, talent and/or treasure with the Nebraska Cattlemen Foundation.  The 2014 recipients were Craig & Terri Uden of Elwood.  A fourth-generation family of cattle producers from Elwood, NE, the Udens have been active in helping shape the beef industry and believe in giving back to an industry that has been good to them.  The Udens are partners in Darr Feedlot Inc. and own and manage three commercial cow-calf operations.  Darr Feedlot has served as the host feedlot for the NCF annual Retail Value Steer Challenge, the largest fundraising event for the Foundation.  Craig has been instrumental in recruiting steer donations for the steer test and has helped it almost triple in size.  Craig has served on the Dawson County Cattlemen’s Board, Nebraska Cattlemen Board, NC Foundation Board, Nebraska Beef Council and numerous local community organizations and is currently the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association Policy Division Chairman.

The Nebraska Beef Industry Endowment was established in December 2009 and provides grants to beef industry-related research and/or teaching positions at Nebraska post-secondary educational institutions.  This award honors those professors or instructors that are providing cutting edge research and/or student instruction in a beef industry related area.  For 2014, the Foundation awarded grants to Dr. Matt Spangler, Associate Professor at University of Nebraska – Lincoln; Jo Bek, Professor of Animal Science at Nebraska College of Technical Agriculture; and Mike Roeber, Agriculture Instructor and Livestock Judging Coach at Northeast Community College.

The Nebraska Range & Conservation Endowment was established in December 2011 and provides grants to range management and conservation research and/or teaching positions at Nebraska post-secondary educational institutions.  This award honors those professors or instructors that are providing cutting edge research and/or student instruction in a range management and conservation related area.  For 2014, the Foundation is awarded grants to Dr. Karla Jenkins, Assistant Professor of Animal Science at University of Nebraska Panhandle Research and Extension Center and Dr. Ron Bolze, Associate Professor for Animal Science Courses at Chadron State College.

The Cattlemen’s Heritage Society honors donors that have created planned gifts that will benefit the Nebraska Cattlemen Foundation.  Al and JoAnne Svajgr of Cozad and Dave Hunt of Holdrege were recognized for creating planned gifts that will benefit the Nebraska Cattlemen Foundation well into the future.

The NCF also received a donation from Advanced Agri-Direct/Cancrete Cattle Waterers that annually donates $25 to the NCF for each waterer sold in Nebraska.  “We want our money to go to programs that make it attractive for young people to get a higher education and stay in the cattle business,” said Shaun Heldt, Advanced Agri-Direct (USA) Inc. General Manager. “These young people are our future and if we want to preserve the beef industry we need to be proactive and support our young cattle people.”

For more information concerning NCF, contact Lee Weide, Nebraska Cattlemen Vice President of Operations at 402.475.2333 or Jana Jensen, NCF Fundraising Coordinator at 308.588.6299.



Nebraska Soybean Board Announces Call for Candidates in Districts 1, 3 and 6

There are three district seats on the Nebraska Soybean Board (NSB) eligible for election this year. Soybean farmers in Districts 1, 3 and 6 are invited to run for election to the Nebraska Soybean Board by filing a candidacy petition by the April 15, 2015 deadline. The election will be conducted via direct-mail ballots and candidate information will be provided to all soybean farmers residing within the district in which an election is to be held.

This is an opportunity to see for yourself how the soybean checkoff money is invested and become a part of the decision making.  You will become a VOICE representing your District on the Board.

NSB directors receive no salary but are reimbursed for expenses incurred while carrying out board business and will serve a three-year term that would begin October 1, 2015.

District seats open are:
District 1: Counties of Antelope, Boyd, Cedar, Holt, Knox, Madison and Pierce.
District 3: Counties of Butler, Colfax, Dodge, Douglas, Sarpy, Saunders and Washington.
District 6: Counties of Fillmore, Jefferson, Gage, Saline, Seward and Thayer.

Candidates for the NSB seats must be:
• A resident of Nebraska
• 21 years of age or older
• Soybean producer in Nebraska for at least five previous years

Prospective candidates must collect the signatures of 50 soybean farmers in their district using an official NSB Candidacy Petition and return such petition to the NSB office on or before April 15, 2015, to be eligible for placement on the ballot. To obtain a candidacy petition, contact Victor Bohuslavsky, executive director, at 402-432-5720.

The nine-member Nebraska Soybean Board collects and disburses the Nebraska share of funds generated by the one half of one percent times the net sales price per bushel of soybeans sold. Nebraska soybean checkoff funds are invested in research, education, domestic and foreign markets, including new uses for soybeans and soybean products.

For more information about the Nebraska Soybean Board, visit www.nebraskasoybeans.org. 



NSB Seeks Soybean Farmers Interested in United Soybean Board Nominations

The Nebraska Soybean Board (NSB) is looking for soybean farmers interested in filling one of Nebraska's four director positions with the United Soybean Board (USB). 

USB is made up of 70 farmer-directors who oversee the investments of the soybean checkoff on behalf of all U.S. soybean farmers. Checkoff funds are invested in the areas of animal utilization, human utilization, industrial utilization, industry relations, market access and supply. As stipulated in the Soybean Promotion, Research and Consumer Information Act, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service has oversight responsibilities for USB and the soybean checkoff. 

Any farmer interested in applying needs to meet the following criteria:
 1.    Be involved in a farming operation that raises soybeans.
 2.    Be a resident of Nebraska.
 3.    Be at least 21 years of age.

To be considered for the national leadership position, farmers must contact Victor Bohuslavsky at the Nebraska Soybean Board office at 402-432-5720, before the March 1, 2015 deadline.

The NSB Board of Directors will submit to the U.S. Department of Agriculture a "first preferred choice nominee" and "second preferred choice alternate" for the open position. The Secretary of Agriculture will make the final appointment. The USDA has a policy that membership on USDA boards and committees is open to all individuals without regard to race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation and marital or family status.    The chosen individual will begin serving a three-year term in December 2015.   Each individual appointed is eligible to serve a total of three terms.

For more information about the United Soybean Board, visit www.unitedsoybean.org. 



Third Strain of PEDv Discovered

To date, three naturally occurring porcine epidemic diarrhea virus strains have been identified in the U.S.: the original PEDV, the PEDV with changes in the spike gene, and the PEDV strain reported in a recent article in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal.

The University of Minnesota Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory (UMVDL) has tested clinical samples from thousands of case-patients to determine the presence of PEDV by real-time reverse transcription PCR. Some of the PEDV-positive samples from case-patients were selected for PEDV spike gene sequencing per veterinarian's request, whereas other samples were selected for complete genome sequencing to fulfill a grant objective.

When PEDV was first detected in the United States, the University of Minnesota Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory was only sequencing the PEDV spike gene segment to clarify the phylogenetic relationship between PEDV strains.

In February 2014, after the identification and analysis of PEDV variant-INDEL strains, UMVDL decided to sequence the complete PEDV genome by using next generation sequencing to clarify the phylogenetic relationship of the US PEDV strains.

The American Association of Swine Veterinarians (AASV) notes that the role of genetic changes in the US PEDV strains to clinical disease has yet to be reported. The clinical presentation of diarrhea in this case was reported as equally or more severe than such presentation in cases caused by the prototype PEDV Colorado/2013. Other factors such as concurrent infections and the rate of group exposure, which is rapid in most PEDV cases affecting neonatal piglets, may influence the clinical presentation.

UMVDL says documenting PEDV variation is vital to understanding the natural evolution of the virus and possibly identifying portions of the genome associated with different clinical disease features.



Crop Producer Confidence Rebounds Following Record Harvests
Livestock Producers, Agribusinesses Remain Positive

Agriculture producer optimism about prices and the future has returned after a downturn prior to this year’s record corn and soybean harvests, according to the latest DTN/The Progressive Farmer Agriculture and Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI).

Producers’ overall confidence climbed to 103.4 from 99.8 last September, the first time the overall confidence value had fallen below 100 since DTN/The Progressive Farmer began the ACI survey in April 2010. The value of 100 is considered neutral. Values above 100 indicate optimism, whereas values below signify pessimism.

The confidence index, which surveyed 500 crop and livestock producers Nov. 20-Dec. 4, 2014, measures the sentiments of crop and livestock producers on their overall agriculture sector impressions. The ACI is conducted three times each year – before planting, prior to harvest and after harvest. Producers are also asked to rate current and long-term input prices and net farm income to gauge their attitudes toward the present situation and future expectations.

Crop and livestock producers remain positive about their present conditions. However, their optimism has weakened during the past two years from 137.2 in December 2012 to 113.3 this past December. Conversely, producers’ expectations for the future climbed from 87.8 last August to 97.0 in December, marking the second highest rating of the past four years.

“Overall, the producer pendulum swung back into optimistic territory from a negative reading prior to harvest, said DTN Markets Editor Katie Micik, director of the confidence index. “This upward shift actually came from improving expectations for the year ahead, which outweigh a decline in producers’ ratings of their present situation.”

There were noticeable regional differences in producers’ confidence levels. Although the confidence levels of Midwest producers remain pessimistic, it improved from 92.0 in August to 97.7 in December. The confidence level with producers in the Southwest improved from 110.8 in August to 112.1 in December. However, the confidence level of producers in the Southeast fell from 107.6 to 103.1 over the same period.

Crop producers’ confidence rose to 101.9 from an all-time low of 96.3 in September, but it is still lower than last March (102.7) and December 2013 (104.3).

While many crop producers have begun to lock in their inputs for 2015, 39 percent of survey respondents believe current crop input prices are bad compared with 39 percent as normal and 22 percent as good. Nearly 70 percent of producers expect crop input prices will get better (20 percent) or stay the same (49 percent) for the next 12 months.

“Crop producer attitudes on the outlook for better crop input prices a year from now might be due to prospects on lower fertilizer or seed costs,” said Micik, “but it could also reflect the lag time it takes for cash rents to react to commodity prices.”

Livestock producer confidence remains positive (106.4), but it has weakened since March (116.4) and September (108.7). Livestock producers are highly favorable of current conditions. They rated their present situation as 132.0, up from 128.5 in August. However, their expectations for the future sank over the same period from 95.5 to 89.4.

“This possibly reflects the expansion in hog production and the corresponding decline in prices. It could also be an indicator of a larger calf crop headed for feeding,” said Micik.

As for income, 71 percent of all producers believe their current net farm income will get better or stay the same, which is down from 81 percent in December 2013. Sixty-six percent believe their net farm income 12 months from now will be better or the same, up from 62 percent a year ago.

Agribusiness Confidence Index
While crop and livestock producers’ attitudes improved, the confidence levels of agribusinesses took a small step back yet still remained positive. According to the DTN/The Progressive Farmer Agribusiness Confidence Index, which measured the sentiments of 100 agribusinesses Nov. 25 to Dec. 6, 2014, agribusiness confidence has fallen in the past three surveys from 107.3 last March to 106.1 in September to now 105.5 in December.

Agribusiness perceptions of their current situation remains optimistic but fluctuated in 2014, dropping from 121.6 in March to 96.7 in September and back up to 114.7 in December. Agribusiness expectations for the next 12 months have risen to 99.2, the highest level since 100.6 was recorded in August 2013.

Sixty-three percent of agribusinesses surveyed felt good about current sales, which represents a 7 percent drop since August but a 5.6 percent increase over December 2013. Just 5 percent of agribusiness said sales were poor.

“This drop indicates that while farmers are trying to reduce their input costs, they have decided not to skip many of the major inputs,” explained Micik. “Looking ahead to next year, 60 percent of agribusinesses think sales will stay the same, while 26 percent believe sales will improve and 14 percent see sales getting worse.”

As for current agribusiness profitability, Micik said 57 percent view it as normal, 36 percent good, and just 7 percent as bad. However, 15 percent of agribusinesses believe profitability will get worse the next 12 months, compared with 25 percent who say it will be better and 60 percent who say it will stay the same.



USFRA Videos Chronicle How to Farm

Just in time for those who made a New Year's resolution to start farming - or learn more about today's farmers and ranchers - the U.S. Farmers and Ranchers Alliance has assembled a collection of four short educational (and entertaining) videos on farming to give you an up-close look at how four farmers tackle big jobs.

Hosted by blogger mom Kelly Snyder, these videos share a few of the daily activities of farmers and ranchers across the nation who grow and raise our food. Snyder visited four Midwest farms to learn what happens every day - and why. The videos also highlight new technology used on farms and ranches today, and address common misconceptions about food production. The videos include:

"How to Use Trash to Help Crops Grow," filmed on Len Corzine's farm in Illinois. When farmers harvest their corn crop, shredded corn stalks are left behind. Farmers have learned that leaving this trash - or residue - on the field protects the soil by creating a blanket. This helps the soil rebuild vital nutrients and prevents runoff. Corzine is a past president of the National Corn Growers Association.

"How to Milk 1,200 Cows," filmed with Brian Rexing at New Generation Dairy in Indiana. Most cows are milked two to three times per day with milking machines. The milk immediately runs through a cooling system and then on to a truck that leaves the farm in less than 24 hours.

"How to Care for 7,000 Pigs," filmed with Art Braundmeier at The Maschhoffs in Illinois. It's a full time job to make sure pigs have 24-hour access to food, fresh water and to keep their housing clean and cool. Watch how modern technology keeps thousands of pigs comfortable.

"How to Gather 50,000 Eggs a Day," filmed with Ron Campbell at Opal Foods in Missouri. What happens after a chicken lays an egg? See how thousands of eggs are gathered, packaged and kept cool on their journey to market.



Remembering the Old Year; Looking Ahead to the New
John D. Anderson, Deputy Chief Economist,  American Farm Bureau Federation

It is difficult to come up with enough superlatives to describe the past year in the cattle market. It was a year, in many respects, of dramatic extremes.  The fact that cattle numbers were historically small going into 2014 has been well-noted, so it is not necessary to rehearse all of the supply side facts and figures for the year here.  Still, a couple of data points are worth pointing out.  USDA's latest of estimate of 2014 beef production from the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was just over 24.3 billion pounds.  This would be the lowest annual beef production figure since 1993.  At the same time, exports are projected to come in at almost 2.6 billion pounds, the second largest figure on record.  On a per capita basis, domestic disappearance for 2014 is estimated to work out to 54.2 pounds per capita (retail weight).  This will be the lowest per capita beef consumption since the early 1950s.

Tight supplies - of cattle, of beef, of competing meats - contributed to unprecedented prices at every level of the market.  Retail beef, wholesale beef, fed cattle, feeder cattle, stocker cattle, cull cattle - every part of the industry witnessed record prices in 2014.  Consider retail prices: the average All Fresh beef retail price for November 2014 was 597.5 cents per pound.  This price was almost 20% higher than the prior November; and it marked the sixth consecutive month in which a new record price had been reached.  When December data are available later this month, that streak of record setting prices may well be extended.  Fed cattle prices also reached record-shattering levels in 2014.  The highest weekly 5-Area weighted average price was posted in the last week of November.  At $171.38 (live basis), that price was over 25% higher than the prior year's highest price.

Impressive as beef and fed cattle markets were in 2014, their performances kind of pale in comparison to that of cash calf markets.  Calf prices in 2014 were absolutely phenomenal.  For example, the high price for the year on 7-800 pound feeder steers at Oklahoma City was a bit over $248/hundredweight (cwt).  The 2014 high on 4-500 pound steers was $348/cwt: over 50% higher than 2013's best price on that class.

There is no question that a great many cattlemen sold their calves in 2014 for the highest prices that they have ever seen.  The question now: what is in store for 2015?  The only thing I am really sure of is that I don't know the answer to that question; at least not in the kind of definitive terms that would really be useful.  But I do have some clear expectations about key features of the market in 2015 and what that might imply for cattle and beef prices.

Cattle numbers and beef production will still be historically small in 2015.  Anecdotal evidence has been mounting for some months that herd expansion has gotten well underway.  When the January 1 inventory report comes out, it should provide some hard data to either confirm or refute this anecdotal evidence.  Whatever the case, though, the path from herd expansion to higher beef production is a rather long one due to the production lags inherent in the system.  This means for 2015 another year of smaller beef production.

As beef production declines, competing meat supplies will increase.  Both pork and chicken are likely to achieve substantial year-over-year increases in production in 2015.  USDA's November WASDE included forecasts for a 3% increase in broiler production in 2015 (following 2014's 2% increase) and a 3.6% increase in pork production.  Combined red meat and poultry production are projected to be up by over 2% in 2015.  By contrast, current estimates indicate that 2014 production was down by 1.3% from the prior year.  The point of this is that in 2014, the beef (and, by extension, cattle markets) benefitted from overall lower meat production.  That key fundamental factor will be quite different in 2015.

The environment for exports could also be a bit more challenging in 2015 than it was in 2014.  The dollar gained strength against other major currencies in the last quarter of 2014.  That trend is likely to continue in 2015 as world markets wrestle with questions about the viability of the Eurozone as well as Japan's apparent failure to jump start more robust economic growth.

On a related, but generally positive note, the stronger dollar has contributed to the dramatic decline in oil prices over the last few months.  Lower oil prices translate into lower energy prices generally and lower gasoline prices specifically.  This has provided consumers with a nice windfall to end 2014 - a generally positive factor for meat demand.    

Overall, with more meat in the pipeline and a tougher export market to deal with, it will be tough to replicate 2014's cattle market - especially the fourth quarter market, which was clearly one for the ages.  Demand has been very good, and we can hope - even expect - that it will remain so.  But unless domestic demand actually improves, the balance of market fundamentals tilts toward some decline in prices from recent record levels.  Keep in mind that year-over-year comparisons for the first quarter will still look quite good even if we aren't quite matching the fourth quarter records.