USDA Reports - NE - IA - US - Crop Production - Grain Stocks - WASDE

NEBRASKA 2014 CROP PRODUCTION SUMMARY

Corn for grain production in Nebraska based on year-end surveys is estimated at 1.6 billion bushels, down 1 percent from 2013, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Yield of 179 bushels per acre is up 10 bushels from last year and ties the 2009 record yield. Farmers harvested 8.95 million acres of corn for grain, down6 percent from 2013.

Soybean production for 2014 totaled 289 million bushels, up 13 percent from 2013. Yield, at 54.0 bushels per acre, is up 0.5 bushel from a year earlier. Area for harvest, at 5.35 million acres, is up 12 percent from 2013 and is the highest on record.

Sorghum for grain production in 2014 is estimated at 13.1 million bushels, up 35 percent from 2013. Yield, at 82 bushels per acre, is up 15 bushels from a year earlier. Area harvested for grain, at 160,000 acres, is up 10 percent from 2013.

Alfalfa production of 3.4 million tons is up 41 percent from a year earlier. The record yield, at 4.1 tons per acre, is up 0.65 ton per acre from last year. Area harvested for dry hay, at 830,000 acres, is up 19 percent from 2013. Seedings of alfalfa during 2014 totaled 160,000 acres, up 14 percent from the year earlier. All other hay production, at 2.63 million tons, is up 4 percent from 2013. The record yield, at 1.50 tons per acre, is up 0.10 ton per acre from last year. Area harvested of other dry hay is 1.75 million acres, down 3 percent from a year ago. Total forage production from alfalfa and other hay was 6.19 million tons in 2014, up 22 percent from the previous year.



NEBRASKA DECEMBER 1, 2014 GRAIN AND HAY STOCKS

Nebraska corn stocks in all positions on December 1, 2014 totaled 1.29 billion bushels, up 3 percent from 2013, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Of the total, 780 million bushels are stored on farms, up 3 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at a record high 510 million bushels, are up 4percent from last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions totaled 209 million bushels, up 27 percent from last year. On farm stocks of 65.0 million bushels are up 67 percent from a year ago, and off-farm stocks, at 144 million bushels, are up 15 percent from 2013.

Wheat stored in all positions totaled 44.6 million bushels, up 23 percent from a year ago. On farm stocks of 3.60 million bushels are up 24 percent from 2013 and off-farm stocks of 41.0 million bushels are up 23 percent from last year.

Sorghum stored in all positions totaled 9.45 million bushels, up 36 percent from 2013. On-farm stocks of 2.20 million are up 91 percent and off farm holdings of 7.25 million are up 25 percent from last year.

Hay stocks on Nebraska farms totaled 4.60 million tons on December 1, 2014, up 21 percent from a year earlier.

Grain storage capacity in Nebraska totaled 2.08 billion bushels, up 41.8 million bushels from December 1, 2013. Total grain storage capacity is comprised of 1.18 billion bushels of on-farm storage, up 30.0 million bushels from last year, and 897 million bushels of off-farm storage, up 11.8 million bushels from 2013.



IOWA 2014 CROP PRODUCTION TOTALS

Corn for grain production in Iowa during 201 4 is estimated at 2.37 billion bushels, according to the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service annual Crop Production 2013 Summary report. This estimate is down 2 percent from the November 1 forecast, but 11 percent above 2013. This is the third largest production on record for Iowa corn producers.  Iowa has led the Nation in corn production for 21 consecutive years and 36 of last 37 years. Iowa's corn for grain yield is estimated at 178 bushels per acre, 5 bushels less than the November 1 forecast but 14 bushels above 2013. Area harvested for grain is estimated at 13.3 million acres, up 100,000 from the November 1 forecast and 250,000 acres above 2013.  Corn planted for all purposes in 201 4 is estimated at 13.7 million acres, up 100,000 from 2013.

Corn for silage production is estimated at 6.2 million tons, down 16 percent from 201 3. The silage yield estimate of 20.0 tons per acre is 1.0 ton per acre higher than 2013. Producers harvested 310,000 acres of corn for silage, down 80,000 acres from 2013.

Soybean production is estimated at 506 million bushels in 201 4, down 2 percent from the November 1 forecast, but up 20 percent from 201 3. This is the highest production since 2006 and the third largest production on record. Iowa soybean growers averaged 51.5 bushels per acre in 201 4. This is 0.5 bushel below the November 1 forecast, but 6.0 bushels above 2013. The harvested acreage of 9.82 million is 570,000 above the previous year. Soybean planted acreage, at 9.9 million, is up 600,000 from 2013.

All hay production for the state is estimated at 3.68 million tons, up 9 percent from the 3.38 million tons produced in 2013. Producers averaged 3.2 tons per acre, up from 2.9 tons in 2013. All hay harvested acres is estimated at 1.16 million, down 15,000 acres from 2013.  Alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures production is estimated at 2.92 million tons, up 21 percent from 201 3. Producers averaged 3.6 tons per acre, up 0.3 ton from 2013. Harvested acres are up 80,000 from last year at 810,000. Iowa producers seeded 110,000 acres of alfalfa in 2014, down 21 percent from the previous year.

Other hay production is estimated at 759,000 tons, 22 percent below 2013. Producers averaged 2.2 tons per acre, matching the 2013 yield. Harvested acres of other hay, at 345,000, is down 22 percent from the previous year.



IOWA GRAIN STOCKS REPORT

Iowa corn stocks in all positions on December 1, 2014, totaled 2.05 billion bushels, up 1 8 percent from December 1, 2013, according to the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Grain Stocks report. Of the total stocks, 64 percent were stored on-farm. The September - November 2014 indicated disappearance totaled 587 million bushels, 3 percent below the 607 million bushels used during the same period last year.

Iowa soybeans stored in all positions on December 1, 2014, totaled 409 million bushels, up 20 percent from the 340 million bushels on hand December 1, 2013. Of the total stocks, 44 percent were stored on-farm. Indicated disappearance for September - November 2014 is 119 million bushels, 2 percent less than the 121 million bushels used during the same quarter last year.

Iowa oats stocks stored on-farm on December 1, 201 4, totaled 1 .6 million bushels, equal to the stocks on December 1, 201 3.



USDA Crop Production 2014 Summary

Corn for grain production is estimated at a record 14.2 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the November forecast but 3 percent above the revised 2013 estimate. The average yield in the United States is estimated at a record high of 171.0 bushels per acre. This is down 2.4 bushels from the November forecast but 12.9 bushels above the revised 2013 average yield of 158.1 bushels per acre. Area harvested for grain is estimated at 83.1 million acres, up slightly from the November forecast but down 5 percent from the revised 2013 acreage.

Sorghum grain production in 2014 is estimated at 433 million bushels, up 6 percent from the November forecast and up 11 percent from the revised 2013 grain production total. Planted area is estimated at 7.14 million acres, down 11 percent from last year's revised planted acres. Area harvested for grain, at 6.40 million acres, is down 2 percent from the 2013 revised harvested acres. Average grain yield, at 67.6 bushels per acre, is up 1.5 bushels from the previous forecast and up 8.0 bushels from last year.

Rice: Production in 2014 is estimated at 221 million cwt, down slightly from the previous forecast but up 16 percent from the revised 2013 total. Planted area for 2014 is estimated at 2.94 million acres, up 18 percent from 2013.  Area harvested, at 2.92 million acres, is also up 18 percent from the previous crop year. The average yield for all United States rice is estimated at 7,572 pounds per acre, down 25 pounds from the previous forecast and 122 pounds below the 2013 United States average of 7,694 pounds per acre.

Soybean production in 2014 totaled a record 3.97 billion bushels, up slightly from the November forecast and up 18 percent from 2013. The average yield per acre is estimated at a record high 47.8 bushels, 0.3 bushel above the November forecast and 3.8 bushels above the 2013 yield. Harvested area is up 9 percent from 2013 to 83.1 million acres and is the highest on record.

All cotton production is estimated at 16.1 million 480-pound bales, up 1 percent from last month and up 25 percent from 2013. The United States yield is estimated at 795 pounds per acre, up 22 pounds from the December forecast but down 26 pounds from last year. Harvested area, at 9.71 million acres, is down 2 percent from last month but up 29 percent from last year.



USDA Grain Stocks
Corn Stocks Up 7 Percent from December 2013
Soybean Stocks Up 17 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Up 3 Percent

Corn stored in all positions on December 1, 2014 totaled 11.2 billion bushels, up 7 percent from December 1, 2013. Of the total stocks, 7.09 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 11 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 4.12 billion bushels, are up 1 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2014 indicated disappearance is 4.25 billion bushels, compared with 4.29 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on December 1, 2014 totaled 2.52 billion bushels, up 17 percent from December 1, 2013. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 1.22 billion bushels, up 28 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.31 billion bushels, are up 9 percent from last December. Indicated
disappearance for September - November 2014 totaled 1.54 billion bushels, up 14 percent from the same period a year earlier.

All wheat stored in all positions on December 1, 2014 totaled 1.52 billion bushels, up 3 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 473 million bushels, up 19 percent from last December. Off-farm stocks, at 1.05 billion bushels, are down 2 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2014 indicated disappearance is 383 million bushels, down 3 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Durum wheat stored in all positions on December 1, 2014 totaled 42.0 million bushels, down 22 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 22.0 million bushels, are down 33 percent from December 1, 2013. Off-farm stocks totaled 20.0 million bushels, down 6 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2014 indicated disappearance of 15.8 million bushels is up 28 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Barley stored in all positions on December 1, 2014 totaled 158 million bushels, down 7 percent from December 1, 2013. On-farm stocks are estimated at 74.4 million bushels, 9 percent below a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 83.3 million bushels, are 5 percent below December 2013. The September - November 2014 indicated disappearance is 22.1 million bushels, 17 percent below the same period a year earlier.

Oats stored in all positions on December 1, 2014 totaled 62.2 million bushels, 29 percent above the stocks on December 1, 2013. Of the total stocks on hand, 31.3 million bushels are stored on farms, up 22 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 30.9 million bushels, up 38 percent from the previous year. Indicated disappearance during September - November 2014 totaled 12.1 million bushels.

Grain sorghum stored in all positions on December 1, 2014 totaled 229 million bushels, down 1 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 30.5 million bushels, are down 7 percent from December 1 last year. Off-farm stocks, at 199 million bushels, are up slightly from a year earlier. The September - November 2014 indicated disappearance from all positions is 238 million bushels, up 37 percent from the same period in 2013.



NEBRASKA WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS

Winter wheat seeded area for harvest in 201 5 is estimated at 1.70 million acres, up from last year’s seeded area of 1.55 million acres, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.



2015 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Planted Acres Down 5 Percent

Winter wheat seeded area for 2015 is expected to total 40.5 million acres, down 5 percent from 2014. Approximate class acreage breakdowns are: Hard Red Winter, 29.5 million; Soft Red Winter, 7.50 million; and White Winter, 3.48 million.

Winter wheat: Planted area for harvest in 2015 is estimated at 40.5 million acres, down 5 percent from 2014 and 6 percent below 2013. Seeding began in August and by the end of September was well ahead the 5-year average pace. By the middle of November, seeding was mostly complete.

Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat seeded area is expected to be 29.5 million acres, down 3 percent from 2014. Acreage changes from last year are mixed across the growing region. Growers in Colorado, Kansas, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Texas planted significantly less acreage this year while large acreage increases are estimated in Nebraska and South Dakota. Record low acreage was seeded in Utah. By November 23, Hard Red Winter wheat conditions were varied across States from last year with most acreage rated in fair to good condition.

Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat seeded area is about 7.50 million acres, down 12 percent from last year. Acreage decreases from last year are expected in most SRW growing States with significant acreage decreases estimated in Illinois and Missouri.

White Winter wheat seeded area totals nearly 3.48 million acres, up 2 percent from 2014. Planted acreage in the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, and Washington) are up from last year. Planting got off to a normal start but by the middle of October progress was behind the 5-year average pace in Idaho and
Washington. By November 9, seeding was virtually complete in the region.

Durum wheat: Seedings in Arizona and California for 2015 harvest are estimated at 155,000 acres, up 44 percent from 2014 and 7 percent above 2013. Water allocation for the crop in the Imperial Valley was greatly reduced over the past year. Nonetheless, no major problems in the development of the crop have been reported. Planting has progressed well for both the San Joaquin Valley and Imperial Valley.



World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate - Jan 12, 2015

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected lower with a reduction in
corn production more than offsetting an increase in sorghum. Harvested area for corn is
increased slightly, but the national average yield is estimated 2.4 bushel per acre lower at 171.0
bushels per acre. Corn production is estimated 191 million bushels lower. Yield and production,
however, both remain records. Sorghum production is raised 25 million bushels with increases
estimated for both harvested area and yield.

Total projected corn use for 2014/15 is reduced 75 million bushels with lower feed and residual
use only partly offset by an increase in corn used for ethanol production. Feed and residual use
is lowered 100 million bushels with the smaller crop and reflecting September-November
disappearance as indicated by the December 1 stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised
25 million bushels mostly offsetting a reduction in expected sorghum use for ethanol. Corn
ending stocks are projected 121 million bushels lower. The projected range for the seasonaverage corn farm price is raised 15 cents on each end to $3.35 to $3.95 per bushel.

Other 2014/15 U.S. feed grain changes reflect the continued strong pace of sorghum export
sales and shipments to China and changes in feed and residual disappearance as indicated by
the December 1 stocks. Sorghum exports are raised 40 million bushels. Domestic sorghum use
is lowered 10 million bushels with a reduction in food, seed, and industrial use partly offset by
higher feed and residual use. Barley feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels based
on June-November disappearance as indicated by the December 1 stocks. The sorghum farm
price range is raised 30 cents on each end to $3.50 to $4.10 per bushel and higher than the
projected corn price because of the large share of use coming from exports this year. The barley
farm price range is raised 10 cents at the midpoint to $5.00 to $5.50 per bushel based on higherthan-expected prices for feed barley reported to date. The oats farm price range is narrowed 5
cents on each end to $3.10 to $3.40 per bushel.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 3.7 million tons lower as a result of this
month’s reduction in the U.S. corn crop. Foreign coarse grain supplies are raised slightly with
higher corn production for India and EU and higher barley production for Ethiopia. India corn
production is raised 1.0 million tons with higher-than-expected plantings reported for its winter
crop. EU corn production is raised 0.4 million tons with higher production reported for Spain,
Croatia, Hungary, and Bulgaria. Offsetting these increases is a 0.4-million-ton reduction for
Brazil sorghum with lower expected area.

Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is reduced slightly as lower domestic use in the
United States is mostly offset by higher corn use for Ethiopia, EU, India, and Canada. Sorghum
consumption is raised for China, but lowered for Brazil and Japan. Barley consumption is raised
slightly with increases for Ethiopia and Iran. Global coarse grain exports are up 1.3 million tons
with most of the increase for sorghum. Sorghum exports are raised for the United States and
imports are raised for China but lowered for Japan. Barley exports are raised for Australia and
Kazakhstan with imports raised for Iran and Tunisia. Global coarse grain ending stocks for
2014/15 are lowered 3.3 million tons mostly on lower projected corn stocks in the United States.
Corn ending stocks are also lowered for Argentina with an increase this month in 2013/14
exports.

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is estimated at 117.4 million tons, up 0.3 million
from last month. Larger crops for soybeans, peanuts, and cottonseed are partly offset by
reductions for sunflowerseed and canola. Soybean production is estimated at 3,969 million
bushels, up 11 million bushels with lower harvested area more than offset with increased yields.
Harvested area is estimated at 83.1 million acres, down 0.3 million from the previous forecast.
The soybean yield is estimated at 47.8 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from last month.

Soybean exports are increased 10 million bushels to 1,770 million reflecting record exports
during the first quarter of the marketing year. Soybean ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected
at 410 million bushels, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal balance sheet changes
include increased imports and domestic consumption. Soybean oil balance sheet changes
include reduced production on a lower extraction rate and lower domestic use for biodiesel.
The 2014/15 U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is projected at $9.45 to $10.95 per
bushel, up 20 cents at the midpoint based on prices reported to date. The soybean oil price is
forecast at 31 to 35 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint. The soybean meal price
projection is unchanged at $340 to $380 per short ton.

Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 532.4 million tons, up 1.6 million on
increases for soybeans, sunflowerseed, rapeseed, and peanuts. Global soybean production is
projected at 314.4 million tons, up 1.6 million on gains for Brazil and the United States. The
Brazil soybean crop projection is raised 1.5 million tons to a record 95.5 million. The increase is
based on higher projected yields for major producing states including Mato Grosso and Parana.
Soybean production is reduced for India on lower yields reflecting late planting and a short
monsoon season. Several years of historical revisions are also made for India soybean
production. Other changes include increased soybean production for Bolivia, increased soybean
and sunflowerseed production for EU, and reduced cottonseed production for India.

Global oilseed trade for 2014/15 is projected at 135.7 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month.
Increased soybean exports for the United States and increased rapeseed export prospects for
Canada account for most of the change. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 104.7
million tons, up 0.6 million on increased soybean stocks in Brazil which are partly offset by lower
soybean stocks in EU and lower canola stocks in Canada.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
The forecast for total meat production for 2015 is raised from last month on increased beef and pork production. Poultry production forecasts are unchanged. Beef production is raised on higher carcass weights. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated farrowings increased 3 percent in September-November 2014 and that producers intend to expand farrowings by 4 percent during December-May 2015. The report also showed that pigs per litter was record high for the September-November period; continued growth in pigs per litter is expected during 2015, resulting in greater availability of hogs for slaughter. However, the increase in the number of slaughter hogs may be partly offset by lower weights as hogs are marketed more rapidly. For 2014, the total meat production estimate is raised on higher pork and broiler production. Beef production is reduced on a slightly slower pace of slaughter.

The forecasts for 2014 and 2015 beef imports are raised, but the export forecast is reduced for
2014. Pork exports for 2014 are reduced on the pace of shipments, but the forecast is
unchanged for 2015. No change is made to imports.  Broiler exports are reduced slightly for
2015. No change is made to the turkey export forecasts.

The cattle price forecasts for 2015 are reduced from last month. The hog price forecast for 2015
is lowered on larger supplies.  Broiler prices are lowered for 2015 as supplies of competing
meats pressure prices. No change is made to turkey or egg prices. Prices for 2014 are adjusted
to incorporate December data.

The milk production estimate for 2014 and the forecast for 2015 are lowered from last month on
slower growth in cow numbers and milk per cow. Skim-solids export forecasts are raised for
2014 and 2015 primarily on stronger sales of whey and nonfat dry milk. Fat basis exports are
unchanged for 2014 but slightly higher in 2015. Ending stocks for 2014 are raised as domestic
demand has been weaker than expected.

Dairy product prices for 2015 are reduced as carry-in stocks are higher and supplies remain
relatively large, especially in the first half of the year. However, demand is expected to
strengthen later in the year with lower price levels, limiting further price declines. The Class III
and Class IV prices for 2015 are lowered on weaker product prices. The all milk price is lowered
to $17.75-18.55 per cwt for 2015.