Wednesday January 22 Ag News

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: January 2025
USDA Economic Research Service

Beef/Cattle: Based on preliminary December slaughter data, expected fourth-quarter 2024 production has been lowered from last month, bringing the annual total to 26.985 billion pounds. The beef production forecast in 2025 has been raised to 25.790 billion pounds due to heavier expected carcass weights and higher anticipated fed cattle marketings. Projections for most cattle prices are raised from last month on strong demand. Beef trade estimates for 2024 are raised to reflect recent data. The import forecast is raised based on strong weekly import data and firm domestic demand, while the export forecast for 2025 is unchanged.

Dairy: Milk production for 2024 is lowered from last month, with lower estimates for milk cow inventories and lower expected milk per cow ensuing from the most recent Milk Production report. The all-milk price estimate for 2024 is $22.60 per hundredweight (cwt), $0.05 lower than last month’s forecast. With changes in the 2024 estimates for dairy cow inventory, the forecast for the average number of cows in the first half of 2025 is revised downward; however, the rounded 2025 average forecast for the dairy herd is unchanged at 9.390 million head. Compounded by a downward revision of 85 pounds in milk production per cow, the 2025 annual forecast for milk production has been lowered 0.8 billion pounds to 227.2 billion pounds. With higher price forecasts for dairy products in 2025, the forecast for the Class III and Class IV milk prices have been also revised upward. The all-milk price forecast for 2025 is $23.05 per hundredweight, $0.50 higher than last month’s forecast.

Pork/Hogs: New information in the December 2024 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report prompted an increase in projected 2025 pork production of 140 million pounds, based largely on revised 2024 farrowings and 2025 producer farrowing intentions. Total 2025 commercial pork production is forecast at 28.5 billion pounds, 2.6 percent greater than 2024 production. Hog prices in 2025 are expected to average $63.25 per cwt, 2.7 percent higher than prices in 2024. Processors paying higher prices for greater numbers of hogs to produce larger volumes of pork suggests continued-strong consumer pork demand in 2025.



NEBRASKA CHICKENS AND EGGS

Nebraska egg production during December totaled 215 million eggs, up from 214 million in 2023. December egg production per 100 layers was 2,508 eggs, compared to 2,607 eggs in 2023. All layers in Nebraska during December 2024 totaled 8.56 million, up from 8.21 million the previous year, according to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service.

December Egg Production Down 3 Percent
United States egg production totaled 9.12 billion during December 2024, down 3 percent from last year. Production included 7.83 billion table eggs, and 1.29 billion hatching eggs, of which 1.19 billion were broiler-type and 95.9 million were egg-type. The total number of layers during December 2024 averaged 373 million, down 3 percent from last year. December egg production per 100 layers was 2,448 eggs, down 1 percent from December 2023.
                                    
All layers in the United States on January 1, 2025 totaled 369 million, down 2 percent from last year. The 369 million layers consisted of 304 million layers producing table or market type eggs, 61.2 million layers producing broiler-type hatching eggs, and 3.91 million layers producing egg-type hatching eggs. Rate of lay per day on January 1, 2025, averaged 78.6 eggs per 100 layers, down 1 percent from January 1, 2024.



Iowa State University Extension and Outreach and Iowa Central Community College partner to provide pesticide applicator education

Iowa State University Extension and Outreach and Iowa Central Community College are offering a four-day workshop that will prepare attendees to become certified as Commercial Pesticide Applicators.

This course will focus on materials needed to take the Iowa Core Manual Exam and Categories 1A (Ag Weed Control), 1B (Ag Insect Control) and 1C (Ag Disease Control). In addition, this material will cover local context and real-life application of insect, weed and disease management. Course information will be presented by ISU Extension and Outreach field agronomists.  

The course will take place Feb. 18-21 at the Iowa Central Community College East Campus located at 2031 Quail Ave., Fort Dodge, from 8 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. each day.  

“Agribusiness retail outlets are in need of a certified workforce to meet the seasonal demands of pesticide applications” said Aaron Saeugling, field agronomist with ISU Extension and Outreach. “This course will help develop that workforce for future employment.”  

The curriculum and supporting materials are offered in the form of PowerPoints, worksheets, demonstrations and activities. Participant engagement will provide a variety of learning opportunities through activities, hands-on demonstrations and real-life scenarios.  

Tuition for the class is $749 and includes the Core, 1A, 1B and 1C manuals as well as other resource materials. Particpants will have the opportunity to take the certification exams each afternoon at the Iowa Central Community College testing center at no additional cost.  

To register, please contact Iowa Central Community College at 515-574-1293 or go to the Iowa Central Community College registration page. Questions may be sent to noncredit@iowacentral.edu.  Registration for this course closes on Feb. 11.



Chef Jessica Baldus of Osage Wins Top Honors at Final Taste Event

The Iowa Pork Producers Association (IPPA) is thrilled to announce Chef Jessica Baldus as the winner of the 38th and final Taste event! Chef Jessica captivated the crowd with her exquisite Mangalitsa Estates pork tenderloin fillet, earning her the top honor and a $5,000 prize.

The competition, held on January 20, 2025, at the Iowa Events Center, marked the end of a cherished tradition that has celebrated the creativity of professional chefs and the versatility of pork for nearly four decades.

Kelsey Sutter, Marketing Programs Director for IPPA, expressed her admiration for Chef Jessica's achievement: "Chef Jessica's dish exemplifies the innovative spirit and culinary excellence we have celebrated through Taste. It's a true testament to the quality of Iowa pork and the incredible talent of our chefs."

Attendees of the event had the opportunity to taste and vote for their favorite dish, ultimately crowning Chef Jessica as the champion. Her winning dish showcased the versatility and quality of Mangalitsa Estates pork, as a chowder-inspired entrée that left a lasting impression.

Chef Jessica shared her excitement and gratitude during her acceptance speech: " Thank you. This is really exciting. My heart is pounding. The pork itself was the star, and I wanted to make sure it was front and center. I was inspired by Mangalitsa Estates' pork and knew it would be perfect for this event.”

You can experience Chef Jessica's award-winning dish at Taste in Osage! The IPPA looks forward to continuing to inspire Iowa restaurants to feature delicious pork dishes on their menus, celebrating the enduring partnership between agriculture and the culinary world.



Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds to Deliver Remarks at 2025 Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit

Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds will once again address the Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit on February 4, 2025 to share the ongoing success of biofuels as Iowa is the nation’s top renewable fuels producer. Attendance is free and open to the public.

“Gov. Reynolds has fought tirelessly to keep biofuels a priority not only in Iowa, but across the nation,” said Iowa Renewable Fuels Association Marketing Director Lisa Coffelt. “She continues to lead the charge for year-round E15, from her leading the Midwest Governors’ year-round E15 fix to enacting her nation-leading E15 Access Standard. She also signed into law the first-ever incentive for retailers to offer biodiesel blends of 30 percent or more. We can’t wait to hear what she has in store next.”

On America’s road trip to prosperity, the 2025 Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit will explore our “Fuels of Opportunity” on February 4, 2025 at the Prairie Meadows Event Center in Altoona, Iowa. The event is free and open to the public, but registration is required. Register and find more information at IowaRenewableFuelsSummit.org.



RFA Thanks Senators for Reintroducing Bipartisan Bill Promoting Ethanol for SAF

The Renewable Fuels Association today thanked Sens. Jerry Moran (R-KS), Chuck Grassley (R-IA) Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), Pete Ricketts (R-NE), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Joni Ernst (R-IA) for the reintroduction in the Senate of the Farm to Fly Act. This legislation would help sustainable aviation fuels create new markets for America’s farmers by affirming a common definition of SAF for USDA purposes, so that U.S. crops can most effectively contribute to sustainable aviation via renewable fuels like low-carbon ethanol.

“RFA supports the Farm to Fly Act, and we appreciate these senators working together across the aisle to move forward this important legislation that creates more clarity and stability around the development of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) made from U.S. crops,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “This bill would be critical in helping position SAF for takeoff by ensuring the best available science and modeling tools are used to calculate the carbon benefits of homegrown renewable fuels.”



IRFA Urges EPA Not to Reduce RFS Cellulosic Biofuel Levels

Today the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA) submitted comments to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regarding the proposed partial waiver of 2024 cellulosic biofuel volume requirements and extension of the 2024 compliance deadline. IRFA urged the EPA not to reduce Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) cellulosic biofuel levels and not to extend the 2024 compliance deadline.

“This would not only lead to massive amounts of excess cellulosic RINs, but it also sets a horrible precedent for the future,” IRFA Policy Director Nathan Hohnstein stated in the submitted comments. “There is already reduced trust in so-called “final” rules throughout the RFS community. Continued actions that undermine any sense of certainty in the program unnecessarily risk the long-term success of the RFS program.”  

If the EPA should move ahead with rulemaking, IRFA suggests increasing biomass-based diesel and advanced RVOs for 2025 to better reflect the market and restore the integrity of the RFS.



Growth Energy to EPA: Cellulosic Waiver Runs Counter to RFS Goals

Growth Energy, the nation's largest biofuel trade association, submitted a comment to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) today in response to EPA's proposal to partially waive the 2024 cellulosic biofuel volume requirement under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS).  

The current proposal would delay the compliance deadline and grant a partial waiver to refiners for the 2024 renewable volume obligations (RVOs) for cellulosic biofuels, which are biofuels produced from leftover plant parts like stems, leaves and other fibrous material. EPA previously rejected attempts by oil companies to retroactively waive 2023 cellulosic volumes, and in its comment Growth Energy urged EPA to follow that precedent, noting that granting such a waiver would run counter to the market-driving goals of the RFS.

"Any waiver of 2024 cellulosic volume requirements should not provide precedent for the future of the RFS program or suppress RFS program goals, which are to drive production and innovation of biofuels, including cellulosic biofuels, and not to passively track a biofuels marketplace without them," said Growth Energy Senior Vice President of Regulatory Affairs Chris Bliley in the comment. "Furthermore, delaying the compliance deadline injects unnecessary uncertainty into the process for bioethanol producers and the entire fuel supply chain."  



ACE Response to EPA E15 Directive in Executive Order

President Trump issued an Executive Order Declaring a National Energy Emergency Monday, which noted, “the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, after consultation with, and concurrence by, the Secretary of Energy, shall consider issuing emergency fuel waivers to allow the year-round sale of E15 gasoline to meet any projected temporary shortfalls in the supply of gasoline across the Nation.” American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE) CEO Brian Jennings issued the following statement in response:
 
"After years of being uncertain about whether we might secure emergency waivers for E15 in conventional gasoline areas during the summer months, the Executive Order signals it is likely for 2025 in the event it is needed. Ultimately, we need Congress to update the statute and clarify once and for all that E15 is allowed for nationwide, year-round use. This legislation will be our top priority during the 2025 ACE DC fly-in."



USDA Drops Proposal to Change Packers and Stockyards Act
 
In a big win for the livestock industry, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) withdrew a proposed regulation to the Packers and Stockyards Act (PSA) that didn’t require proof of harm to competition when bringing PSA lawsuits.
 
Under the “Fair and Competitive Livestock and Poultry Markets” rule, AMS sought to make “unfair practices and devices” related to livestock transactions as per se – that is, inherent – violations of the PSA even if such actions didn’t harm competition. Proving harm to competition is an element of PSA claims that federal courts repeatedly have held is required and that Congress explicitly has refused to eliminate.
 
In comments submitted in September, the National Pork Producers Council expressed opposition to eliminating the requirement that plaintiffs in PSA cases prove harm to competition. It also pointed out that USDA’s attempt to change that prerequisite exceeded its statutory authority.
 
NPPC says the PSA was enacted to protect competition in the meat and poultry industries, ensuring fair markets and competitive pricing opportunities. Removing the requirement to show anticompetitive harm could have subjected swine contractors, including independent producers using production contracts, and packers to burdensome and costly litigation.



NPPC Lays Out 2025 Pork Industry Priorities
 
As the new White House administration and Congress get underway, the National Pork Producers Council has laid out its legislative and regulatory priorities for the year. Here are the top, but not exclusive, issues of importance to the U.S. pork industry:
 
Farm Bill – NPPC wants a new Farm Bill as soon as possible, with language fixing the problems caused by California’s Proposition 12. It also will work to include authorization for programs that promote U.S. pork exports and continue to push for full authorization of those that prevent, prepare for, and respond to foreign animal diseases.

Labor and Immigration – NPPC will continue to urge congressional lawmakers and the Trump administration to address livestock agriculture’s labor shortage, asking that H-2A visas be extended to year-round workers so they can be better utilized by pork producers.
 
Trade – Pressing issues include renewal of the African Growth and Opportunities Act, which expires at the end of the year, and the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences program, which expired in 2020. Both provide duty-free treatment of goods exported to the United States from eligible countries and serve as tools to ensure U.S. products are given “reasonable and equitable” access to those countries’ markets. NPPC also will weigh in on any actions related to tariffs.

Federal Funding Bills – NPPC will use the appropriations process to work to increase funding for the U.S. Swine Health Improvement Plan, which will establish health standards for the control of foreign animal diseases. NPPC also prioritizes reauthorizing the Livestock Mandatory Reporting program, which provides timely, reliable public market information on sales to meatpackers of cattle, swine, lambs, and the subsequent sale of meat products until the program can be fully reauthorized.

Taxes – NPPC will urge lawmakers to extend tax provisions beneficial to agriculture, including the estate tax exemption amount, which is set to go from $11.2 million to $5.49 million at the end of 2025, and the qualified business deduction, which allows a 20% reduction in certain business income but expires at year’s end. Additionally, the bonus depreciation provision, which allows for the cost of qualified property to be deducted in the year it is placed into service, is continuing to phase out.

Other Issues – Additional matters that may come up include environmental regulations on Waters of the United States and farm emissions, and issues related to federal pork purchases and the 2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans.



Headcounts aren’t everything: Understanding the full impact of cattle inventories
Rob Ziegler, Extension Specialist, University of Wyoming

The January 31st USDA Cattle Inventory Report may be the most anticipated report of the year, especially since the July Inventory Report has been eliminated. The January report will provide headcounts of all major classes of cattle, including heifers kept as replacements, which may indicate producer intentions to rebuild the national cow herd. One of the primary drivers of market price through the supply chain over the last several years can be attributed to the lowest beef cow herd inventory in decades. While the inventory report is a valuable resource for evaluating the state of the beef industry, it’s important to remember what the report doesn’t cover: total beef production.

The Livestock Marketing Information Center compiles and analyses data from USDA-NASS to give an indication of how much beef is produced per beef cow each year. From 1999 through 2024, estimates indicate each cow produces approximately 5.77 more pounds of beef each year. Granted, feeding margins certainly influence out-weights of live cattle, which impact the amount of beef produced. Cheap feed grains, favorable weather conditions and strong values helped support carcass weights in 2024 and overall beef production. Additional pounds of beef produced per cow over time is also likely an indication of how technologies improved the efficiency of beef production.

Looking back at the bottom of the last cattle cycle in 2014, total U.S. cattle inventories were just above of 88 million head and commercial beef production was just over 24 billion pounds. According to the January 2024 inventory report, total cattle inventories were slightly above 87 million head and commercial beef production approached 27 billion pounds for 2024. This means the industry produced approximately 3 billion more pounds of beef with 1 million less head of cattle inventory in 2024. The ratio of pounds produced compared to total cattle inventories has improved nearly 11% since the last cattle cycle.

There is a lag effect between cattle inventories and beef production. Cattle inventories bottomed out in 2014 but the realized effect on beef production was felt later in 2015 when retail beef prices peaked at $6.29 per pound. Choice retail beef in 2024 averaged $8.24 per pound in a nominal sense. Over the past decade, inflation has contributed to the overall increase in the price of goods, not just beef. When adjusted to 2014 in real terms, the price of retail beef is $6.21 per pound. The lower price for retail beef in 2024 in real terms can be attributed to increased beef production, not decreased cattle inventories. When heifer retention does occur, feeder cattle supplies will be reduced, and a subsequent increase in inventories is expected. Meanwhile retail prices may peak due to a reduction in beef production.

Tighter beef cattle inventories are expected in this year’s report. Total headcount in the supply chain will likely impact total beef production in years ahead. Fortunately, the amount of beef produced per cow over time has increased which will help support beef supplies. The January cattle inventory report will include head counts, but total beef production should also be considered when evaluating the impact on markets.



Brevant Seeds Expands Corn and Soybean Portfolios for 2025 Season

The cost of remaining stagnant is higher than ever. It’s essential that farmers have access to improved products that drive genetic gain and help them overcome in-field threats. The 2025 class of Brevant® brand corn and soybeans features 39 new products that have been strategically selected to better support farmer needs.
 
“We can’t predict what growing conditions this season will bring, so we continue improving our products for stability across all environments," said Travis Belt, portfolio and technology lead for Brevant® seeds. “The newest class has a competitive edge over previous classes and is handpicked to address the needs of our retail teams and their customers.”
 
The new class of Brevant seeds equips farmers with 27 new grain corn and silage corn hybrids that outyield all competitors by +11.6 bu./A1 and wins 71% of the time. The 2025 class adds 11 PowerCore® Enlist® corn products to the lineup of Brevant seeds — providing more options for comprehensive weed and insect control. With two additional PowerCore® Ultra Enlist® corn products in the class, farmers get even more protection against above-ground pests. The seven new Brevant brand Vorceed® Enlist® corn products feature improved defense against corn rootworm (CRW) and flexible weed control.
 
“Advancements in the seed space are accelerating and the momentum isn’t slowing down,” Belt said. “As technology continues to push forward, farmers are getting products with improved agronomics and yield potential. It’s important for them to take advantage of these new technologies to stay ahead of the curve.”
 
The 2025 lineup of Brevant brand Enlist E3® soybeans continues to raise the bar with elite Corteva genetics for ag retail and 12 new varieties, five of which have Peking resistance to soybean cyst nematode (SCN). This class focuses on delivering more yield potential and improved agronomics, including advancements in emergence, standability, iron deficiency chlorosis (IDC), white mold, phytophthora field tolerance, and sudden death syndrome (SDS). The next generation of Brevant brand Enlist E3 soybeans demonstrates strong performance as it wins 68%2 of the time and averages +2.8 bu./A over the competition.