NEBRASKA CATTLE ON FEED DOWN 3 PERCENT
Nebraska feedlots, with capacities of 1,000 or more head, contained 2.58 million cattle on feed on February 1, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. This inventory was down 3 percent from last year. Placements during January totaled 515,000 head, down 5 percent from 2018. Fed cattle marketings for the month of January totaled 480,000 head, up 3 percent from last year. Other disappearance during January totaled 15,000 head, unchanged from last year.
IOWA CATTLE ON FEED DOWN 4 PERCENT
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in Iowa feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 690,000 head on February 1, 2019, according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Cattle on Feed report. This was unchanged from January 1, 2019, but down 4 percent from February 1, 2018. Iowa feedlots with a capacity of less than 1,000 head had 640,000 head on feed, up 2 percent from last month and last year. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in all Iowa feedlots totaled 1,330,000 head, up 1 percent from last month but down 1 percent from last year.
Placements of cattle and calves in Iowa feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head during January totaled 111,000 head, up 31 percent from last month but down 15 percent from last year. Feedlots with a capacity of less than 1,000 head placed 60,000 head, down 48 percent from last month and down 31 percent from last year. Placements for all feedlots in Iowa totaled 171,000 head, down 14 percent from last month and down 21 percent from last year.
Marketings of fed cattle from Iowa feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head during January totaled 109,000 head, up 18 percent from last month and up 2 percent from last year. Feedlots with a capacity of less than 1,000 head marketed 46,000 head, down 27 percent from last month and down 15 percent from last year. Marketings for all feedlots in Iowa were 155,000 head, unchanged from last month but down 4 percent from last year. Other disappearance from all feedlots in Iowa totaled 6,000 head.
Feb 1 '19 Cattle on Feed Up Slightly
According to USDA, cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on February 1, 2019. The inventory was slightly above February 1, 2018.
On Feed: By State (1,000 hd - % Feb '18)
Colorado ........: 1,030 107
Iowa ..............: 690 96
Kansas ...........: 2,250 97
Nebraska .......: 2,580 97
Texas .............: 2,750 104
Placements in feedlots during January totaled 1.96 million head, 5 percent below 2018. Net placements were 1.90 million head. During January, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 370,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 445,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 554,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 420,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 100,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 70,000 head.
Placements: By State (1,000 hd - % Jan '18)
Colorado ........: 195 108
Iowa ..............: 111 85
Kansas ...........: 385 80
Nebraska .......: 515 95
Texas .............: 420 105
Marketings of fed cattle during January totaled 1.91 million head, 3 percent above 2018. Other disappearance totaled 61,000 head during January, 12 percent below 2018.
Marketings: By State (1,000 hd - % Jan '18)
Colorado ........: 170 92
Iowa ..............: 109 102
Kansas ...........: 455 105
Nebraska .......: 480 103
Texas .............: 385 103
2018 Cattle on Feed and Annual Size Group Estimates
Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head represented 81.3 percent of all cattle and calves on feed in the United States on January 1, 2019. This is comparable to the 81.2 percent on January 1, 2018.
Marketings of fed cattle for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head during 2018 represented 87.1 percent of total cattle marketed from all feedlots in the United States. This is comparable to the 87.1 percent during 2017.
PVC Host Feedlot Management Meeting
Platte Valley Cattlemen President Boyd Hellbusch would like to invite you to the PVC Feedlot management meeting on March 18th, at Wunderlich’s Catering in Columbus. Social hour will begin sponsored by Settje Agri Services and Engineering starting at 6:00pm. The meal will be sponsored by Kit Held Trucking/ Kit Held Seed and Chemical beginning at 7:00pm.
First up will be a few quick updates and news from Settje Agri Services and Engineering on some different projects they have been working on.
Then, the main speaker, Brandon Koch PHD nutritionist from Kent Nutrition, will speak about some different feedlot management options. He is also going to talk about how mud influences cattle performance.
They look forward to seeing you all March 18th at Wunderlichs Catering.
Nebraska Ag Feeds the World
Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE 3)
We celebrate National Ag Week to recognize the tireless efforts of our farmers and ranchers to feed the American people and a sizeable portion of the rest of the world. It has always been a point of pride for me to represent Nebraska’s Third District, which is the highest producing ag district in the country.
With recent turbulence in the commodity markets, it is important we do everything in our power to provide certainty for the ag sector which underpins our rural economy. For this reason, I was happy Congress passed a five-year Farm Bill including robust crop insurance and a new livestock vaccine bank to help contain potential future outbreaks of disease.
While this is a positive step, I have been troubled by the rhetoric coming from my colleagues on the other side of the aisle who may not share our understanding of rural America. Initiatives such as the Green New Deal fit into a pattern of negligence whereby Congressional Democrats are increasingly focused on urban and suburban communities at the expense of rural areas.
Washington seems to have forgotten the months- and miles-long supply chain which leads to the local grocery store. Labels like “factory farming” are disrespectful to our farmers and ranchers who are the best stewards of our natural resources. Modern ag practices are becoming more sustainable and environmentally friendly with each day that passes.
Simply put, it is in the best interests of our ag producers to grow more products using less water and land than their competitors. The crux of what President Trump is trying to accomplish is to enable American industry and agriculture to flex its competitive muscle by leveling the international playing field.
I would put our farmers and ranchers up against those of any other country in the world and expect them to produce more with less resources on any given day. Ag products are America’s number one export; more than energy, aircraft, or auto parts; and any policy changes considered by Congress should keep this fact in mind.
Please remember our ag community as we celebrate National Ag Week this March and don’t forget to show a local farmer or rancher how much we appreciate what they do. As Co-Chair of the Congressional Rural Caucus, this is a large part of what I hope to accomplish, along with reminding my colleagues in Congress of the importance of ensuring our rural communities have a voice at the table.
New EIA Data Confirms Ethanol Demand Destruction in 2018
Data released today by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reveals the extensive damage to 2018 ethanol demand that resulted from former EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt’s egregious abuse of small refinery exemptions (SREs). Pruitt excused 48 refiners from their legal blending obligations under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), resulting in a flood of unneeded RINs into the market and a subsequent collapse in RIN prices. The wave of surplus RINs reduced the incentive to expand ethanol blending beyond the so-called E10 “blend wall,” while low RIN prices pressured ethanol values and margins throughout 2018. The significant destruction in ethanol demand harmed ethanol producers, farmers and consumers.
According to the Renewable Fuels Association’s (RFA) analysis of the new EIA data:
- U.S. ethanol consumption declined to 14.42 billion gallons in 2018 from 14.50 billion gallons in 2017. Based on the EIA’s forecast in January 2018 (i.e., before the market became aware of rampant SREs), U.S. ethanol consumption was expected to reach 14.66 billion gallons—237 million gallons more than what actually occurred; and
- The U.S. ethanol blend rate fell to 10.07% in 2018 from 10.13% in 2017. The blend rate began to drop in February 2018, as rumors and press reports regarding SREs made their way into the market. This was far below expectations at the start of 2018, when EIA had forecasted an implied ethanol blend rate of 10.26% for 2018. For the February-December period, the blend rate averaged just 10.01%.
Commenting on the data, RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper stated, “As expected, EIA’s latest data confirms that small refiner exemptions caused both the ethanol blend rate and the total ethanol volume consumed to drop in 2018. This was the first year-over-year decline in U.S. ethanol consumption since 1998, breaking a 20-year trend of annual increases in domestic ethanol demand. Similarly, the blend rate slid backward for the first time since EIA began offering more robust ethanol blending data in 2010. The RFS was designed to steadily expand the amount of renewable fuels blended into our fuel supply each and every year. Unfortunately, that is not what happened in 2018, and all the evidence points back to former Administrator Pruitt’s unprecedented abuse of small refiner waivers as the cause. As newly confirmed EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler considers the 37 petitions now before him for small refiner exemptions from 2018 RFS requirements, we urge him to take a more measured, constrained, and reasonable approach that remains faithful to the spirit and intent of the RFS.”
Fischer Responds to Reports That EPA Acted to Help Big Refineries
U.S. Senator Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, released the following statement today in response to reports that, under former Administrator Scott Pruitt, the EPA acted to help big refineries profit:
“I am angry by reports that show what we long suspected: former EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt ignored the law to help big refineries at the expense of farmers and ethanol producers. The EPA gave ‘hardship exemptions’ to profitable refineries, releasing them from their biofuel blending obligations. According to projections, this could cause the ethanol industry to lose billions of gallons in demand.
“I intend to pursue legislative options to address abuse in the small refinery exemption process. I will also push new leadership at the EPA to make sure the agency is upholding the Renewable Fuel Standard as intended by law.”
NPPC Elects New Officers, Board Members
The National Pork Producers Council today elected new officers and members to its board of directors at its annual business meeting – the National Pork Industry Forum – held here.
Elected as president of the organization was David Herring, a hog farmer from Lillington, N.C. He is vice president of Hog Slat, which supplies equipment to pork operations, and of TDM Farms. Herring and his two brothers started the farm in 1983 as a feeder pig operation. Today, TDM Farms is a sow farrow-to-finish operation, with farms in North Carolina, Illinois and Indiana. Herring is a past president of the North Carolina Pork Council.
Herring takes over from Jim Heimerl, a producer from Johnstown, Ohio, who becomes NPPC immediate past president and chairman of the organization's Trade Committee.
Howard AV Roth, a hog farmer from Wauzeka, Wis., was elevated to president-elect. A fifth-generation farmer, he owns and operates Roth Feeder Pigs. In addition to serving on the NPPC board for the past seven years, Roth previously was on the Wisconsin Pork Association board of directors and currently serves as chairman of the association's Swine Health Committee.
Jen Sorenson, communications director for Iowa Select Farms, was elected by the NPPC board of directors to be vice president.
Lori Stevermer of Easton, Minn., and Russell Vering of Howells, Nebraska, were elected as new members of the board for a three-year term. Mark Cooper of Des Moines, Iowa, was elected to a three-year term and will serve as the board's Packer and Processor Industry Council representative.
They join current directors Craig Andersen, of Centerville, S.D., Phil Borgic, of Nokomis, Ill., Scott Hayes, of Monroe City, Mo., Dale Reicks of New Hampton, Iowa, Dr. Gordon Spronk, of Pipestone, Minn., Duane Stateler of McComb, Ohio, Kraig Westerbeek, of Warsaw, N.C. and Terry Wolters of Pipestone, Minn.
Elected for two-year terms to NPPC's Nominating Committee were Jay Moore of Jackson, Minn., and Neill Westerbeek of Clinton, North Carolina.
"David, AV and Jen have a lot of good experience and leadership that will benefit NPPC and our producers greatly," said NPPC CEO Neil Dierks. "And with the addition of our new board members, NPPC again has a strong team guiding our work of protecting the livelihoods of America's pork producers."
NPPC Approves Resolutions On Important Issues
At the annual business meeting of the National Pork Producers Council – the National Pork Industry Forum held March 7-8 in Orlando, Fla. – NPPC delegates adopted several important resolutions, including those that call on NPPC to:
- Strengthen pork industry efforts to prevent foreign animal diseases (FADs) from entering the United States. Separate resolutions were adopted, directing NPPC to: work with the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration on restricting imports of soy-based animal feed products from countries with a high risk of transmitting FADs; urge USDA and other public and private research institutions to evaluate FAD virus viability in pig feed and feedstuffs and to develop hold times for imported feed; and work with the National Pork Board, USDA, FDA and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on coordinating with Canada and Mexico development of practices to protect the North American swine herd from FADs. A related resolution calls for exploring options for mitigating the impact of diseases on the pork industry and to review disease monitoring and control efforts.
- Work for a change to the U.S. Department of Transportation's Hours of Service (HOS) rules that allows livestock haulers to not have counted against their "on-duty" time periods when animals are being loaded and unloaded, when they must remain in their trucks. The HOS regulation limits certain commercial truckers to 14 consecutive hours of on-duty times; drivers reaching that limit then must take a 10-hour rest break. For biosecurity reasons, many livestock haulers must remain in their trucks during loading and unloading of animals.
- Urge the U.S. Department of Labor and Department of Homeland Security to expand visas to allow foreign workers to stay in the United State longer so farm operations have a more reliable work force. U.S. agriculture currently is facing a severe labor shortage.
- Monitor USDA and FDA to ensure the agencies are transparent throughout the development, production and harvest of laboratory-produced cultured protein (L-PCP). The agencies recently agreed to joint oversight of L-PCP, with FDA overseeing cell collection, cell banks and cell growth and differentiation and USDA overseeing the production and labeling of food products derived from the cells of livestock and poultry.
- Identify existing and emerging pork industry issues and the funding needs to address them. Recommendations, including budget requirements, are to be provided to state associations prior to the 2020 Pork Forum.
"These resolutions reflect the concerns of the U.S. pork industry and the efforts we need to take to protect the livelihoods of producers," said NPPC President David Herring. "NPPC will work with Congress, the Trump administration and others to tackle these and other issues of importance to our industry."
PRIA Signed by President
CropLife America (CLA) praised President Trump and leaders of the 116th Congress for passing a long-term Pesticide Registration Improvement Act (PRIA) reauthorization that will strengthen and improve pesticide registration through 2023. House and Senate leadership, congressional appropriators and authorizing committees (House and Senate Ag, and House Energy and Commerce) have worked diligently over the past two years to preserve the benefits and process improvements first realized with PRIA’s original enactment in 2004. The bill was signed by President Trump on Friday, March 8, 2019, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) plans to implement the law quickly.
The original intent of PRIA was to establish a more predictable and effective registration and evaluation process for pesticide decisions. The law couples the collection of fees with specific decision review periods. This reauthorization includes technical changes and extends authority for EPA to collect updated pesticide registration and maintenance fees through 2023.
Women in Agriculture Social Event
Iowa Corn, Iowa Pork, Iowa Soybean and the Iowa Farm Bureau will be hosting a Women in Agriculture Social event. This event is free and open to the women of the public.
Women in the agriculture community are invited to join sponsors for an enjoyable evening out with food and discussion. This evening event is focused around learning about each Commodity organization and efforts taken to help Iowa’s farmers. Free wine and appetizers will be served throughout the event.
WHAT: Women in Agriculture Social
WHEN: Monday, March 18, 2019 - Open house 5:30PM – 7:30 PM
WHERE: Water’s Edge Nature Center, 1010 250th Street, Algona, Iowa 50511
Please RSVP by March 11, 2019 to Natalie Te Grootenhuis by emailing ntegrootenhuis@iowacorn.org or calling 515-225-9242. You are encouraged to share this invitation with other women in agriculture.
2019 Commodity Classic Sees Second Highest Farmer Attendance in History
Initial reports indicate total attendance at last week’s 2019 Commodity Classic in Orlando exceeded 9,100 including approximately 4,500 farmers. The farmer attendance figure ranks second highest in the 23-year history of Commodity Classic and total attendance ranks third. These numbers are still preliminary. Final attendance information will be available in 10 to 14 days.
“Farmers across the country are using new challenges in the industry as a launchpad for innovation, and that was clear this year at Commodity Classic, where interest in the educational sessions and new technologies was elevated to a new level,” said Wade Cowan, a Texas soybean farmer and co-chair of the 2019 Commodity Classic. “The energy and enthusiasm among farmers and agribusinesses alike made for some deep and engaging conversations and an overall very positive experience.”
“Commodity Classic is where farmers come to gain knowledge and insight—and this year’s educational line-up was focused on helping farmers gain an edge in a time of uncertainty,” said Wesley Spurlock, a Texas corn farmer and co-chair of the 2019 Commodity Classic. “Every educational session is selected by farmers, for farmers—so the topics and speakers are relevant and important to a farmer’s bottom line.”
Additional highlights of the 2019 Commodity Classic included:
- A huge trade show with 404 exhibiting companies comprising a total of 2,105 booth spaces, encompassing the latest in technology, equipment, inputs, services and innovation in agriculture
- A keynote address by Sonny Perdue, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, who also greeted farmers during a walkaround on the trade show floor
- More than 40 educational sessions covering a wide range of topics including soil health, farm policy, trade, yield barriers, farm transition and many more
- A three-day showcase of innovation, technology, equipment and groundbreaking ideas that are changing the face of agriculture and food production
- Dozens of opportunities for farmers from across the nation to network and learn from each other
- Meetings and policy development sessions involving the presenting commodity associations
The 2020 Commodity Classic will be held February 27-29, 2020 in San Antonio, Texas. For more information and to sign up for email updates, visit CommodityClassic.com.
Distillers Grains Exports Reach Second-Highest on Record in 2018
U.S. exports of distillers grains (DG)—a high-protein co-product of dry mill ethanol production used in feed for livestock and poultry—were the second-highest on record in 2018, totaling 11.88 million metric tons (MMT), according to a summary of 2018 ethanol co-product trade data published today by the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA).
An estimated 31 percent of U.S. DG production was exported in 2018, meaning nearly one out of every three tons produced was exported to 50 countries on six continents last year. Mexico remained the top destination for U.S. DG, representing 17 percent, followed by Vietnam (11 percent), South Korea (10 percent), Thailand (9 percent) and Turkey (7 percent). Compared to 2017, Vietnam and the United Kingdom saw the most growth in U.S. DG exports, increasing by 306 percent and 52 percent, respectively.
However, U.S. DG exports to China continued to see a significant drop since 2016, when the country imposed punitive anti-dumping and countervailing duties against U.S. product. “Exports to China fell further after plunging 84 percent in 2017 due to the imposition of duties; it ranked 17th in 2018, accounting for only 2 percent of U.S. exports,” the summary noted.
“As this summary highlights, distillers grains and other co-products are a vitally important part of the global feed market and a growing number of countries and regions are relying on U.S. DG exports, including Mexico and Southeast Asia,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “However, once again China’s protectionist actions have effectively closed off U.S. DG exports, preventing the country’s livestock and poultry feeders from accessing a low-cost, high-value source of nutrition. We will continue to work with U.S. government officials and industry partners to address this barrier and ensure free and fair trade between our two countries.”
Among other facts from the RFA report:
- U.S. DG exports had a total aggregate value of $2.47 billion in 2018, a 33 percent increase from 2017;
- The U.S. imported 317,000 MT of DG in 2017, equivalent to just 3 percent of DG exports and 1 percent of domestic DG consumption. Canada was again the top supplier of U.S. DG imports, shipping 286,000 MT to the U.S., comprising 90 percent of total imports. Brazil and China were the only other two significant DG exporters to the U.S. market in 2018;
- U.S. exports of corn gluten meal—a feed co-product made by ethanol wet mills—totaled 821,000 MT in 2018. Indonesia, Chile, and Egypt were top destinations; and
- U.S. exports of corn gluten feed—a feed co-product also from ethanol wet mills—reached 1.17 MMT in 2018, down slightly from the prior year. Ireland, Israel and the United Kingdom accounted for a combined 76 percent of total U.S. corn gluten feed exports.
17.9 Million Pounds of Feb. CWT-Dairy Exports; Products Added
The Cooperatives Working Together program assisted member cooperatives in securing 58 contracts with sales of 8.5 million pounds of American-type cheeses, 476,199 pounds of butter and 8.8 million pounds of whole milk powder. The product is going to customers in Asia, Central America, the Middle East, and South America and will be shipped during the months of February through August 2019.
CWT’s self-help mechanism will be extended to three additional product categories in March: Processed cheese and cream cheese will now be eligible for CWT Export Assistance, and anhydrous milkfat will be re-introduced. NMPF Executive Vice President Tom Balmer introduced the change at NMPF’s monthly board meeting, noting the additional channels will help boost dairy sales overseas, the fundamental mission of CWT.
“Stay on the lookout for that,” he said.
These transactions bring the 2019 total of the CWT-assisted product sales contracts to 20.278 million pounds of cheese, 1.184 million pounds of butter and 11.098 million pounds of whole milk powder. These contracts will move the equivalent of 294.8 million pounds of milk on a milkfat basis overseas in 2019.
Assisting CWT member cooperatives to gain and maintain world market share through the Export Assistance program in the long-term expands the demand for U.S. dairy products and the milk that produces them. This, in turn, positively impacts all U.S. dairy farmers by strengthening and maintaining the value of dairy products that affect their milk price.
The amounts of dairy products and related milk volumes reflect current contracts for delivery, not completed export volumes. CWT will pay export assistance to the bidders only when export and delivery of the product is verified by the submission of the required documentation.
USDA World Ag Supply & Demand Report
March 8, 2019
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for ethanol, reduced exports, and larger stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is lowered 25 million bushels to 5.550 billion based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report, and the pace of weekly ethanol production during February as indicated by Energy Information Administration data. Exports are reduced 75 million bushels to 2.375 billion, reflecting diminished U.S. price competitiveness and expectations of increased exports for Brazil and Argentina. With no other use changes, ending stocks are raised 100 million bushels to 1.835 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 5 cents at the midpoint to $3.55 per bushel.
For sorghum, 2018/19 exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 85 million, which if realized would be the lowest since 2012/13. Food, seed, and industrial use is lowered 5 million bushels reflecting a reduction in the projected amount of sorghum used to produce ethanol. Offsetting is a 20 million bushel increase in feed and residual use. The midpoint price forecast is lowered 5 cents to $3.30 per bushel.
The global coarse grain production forecast for 2018/19 is down slightly to 1,371.9 million metric tons. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for marginally lower production, virtually unchanged trade, greater use, and reduced stocks relative to last month. Brazil corn production is unchanged, with increased yield expectations offset by a reduction in area. Faster-than-normal planting progress improves yield prospects for second-crop corn in the Center-West, while area is down reflecting updated expectations for both first and second-crop corn. Corn production is raised for India, but lowered for South Africa. Australia coarse grain production is higher, as a forecast increase in barley more than offsets a reduction for sorghum.
Major global trade changes for 2018/19 include higher projected corn exports for Argentina and Ukraine and reduction for the United States. For 2017/18, Brazil’s exports for the marketing year ending February 2019 are raised based on larger than expected late-season shipments. Partly offsetting is a reduction for Argentina. China’s coarse grain imports for 2018/19 are lowered, reflecting lower forecast sorghum and barley imports. China’s corn feed and residual use is raised with lower sorghum and barley imports. Corn imports are raised for the EU and Canada. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2018/19 are lowered from last month, mostly reflecting reductions for China, Brazil, and Argentina.
OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2018/19 include higher crush and lower ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 2,100 million on higher domestic disappearance of soybean meal and a lower soybean meal extraction rate reflecting data reported by NASS in the Oilseed Crushings report. With exports unchanged, soybean stocks are projected at 900 million bushels, down 10 million from last month. With increased crush, soybean oil production is raised 115 million pounds to 24.6 billion. Soybean oil used for methyl ester production for biodiesel is raised 200 million pounds to 8.2 billion on record production for the first quarter of the marketing year (Oct-Sept). With increased production more than offset by higher use, soybean oil stocks are forecast lower.
The season-average soybean price range forecast of $8.10 to $9.10 per bushel is unchanged at the midpoint. Soybean oil and meal prices are also unchanged at 28.5 to 31.5 cents per pound and $295 to $335 per short ton, respectively.
The 2018/19 global oilseed outlook includes lower production, crush, and increased stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is down 0.2 million tons, with lower soybean production more than offsetting higher rapeseed and cottonseed. Soybean production is reduced 0.9 million tons to 360.1 million on lower production for Brazil and Paraguay. Production for Brazil is down 0.5 million tons to 116.5 million, reflecting dry weather conditions and lower yields for Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias.
Global oilseed crush is down 0.5 million tons mainly on lower soybean crush for China, which is down on slower-than-expected pace to date. China’s soybean crush pace is expected to increase during the second half of the marketing year as the South American harvest advances and leads to increased global supplies. Global oilseed ending stocks are up 0.8 million tons to 121.7 million, with soybeans accounting for 0.5 million of the increase.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, lower exports, reduced domestic use, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are increased by 5 million bushels on higher imports. Wheat exports are lowered 35 million bushels to 965 million with reductions in Hard Red Spring and White on stronger than expected export competition for these classes. Wheat food use is reduced by 5 million bushels to 965 million, based primarily on the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report. Wheat ground for flour was lower in the first half of the 2018/19 Marketing Year than previously forecast. Projected 2018/19 ending stocks are raised 45 million bushels to 1,055 million. The season-average farm price range is unchanged at the midpoint of $5.15 per bushel and the range is narrowed to $5.10 to $5.20.
Global wheat supplies are reduced, primarily on lower production forecasts for Kazakhstan and Iraq. Projected 2018/19 world trade is fractionally higher as larger EU and Brazil exports more than offset reductions for the United States and Mexico. The EU is increased 1.0 million tons to 23.0 million as its recent improved export competiveness is expected to continue for the remainder of the trade year. Global imports are raised for Algeria, Morocco, and the Philippines while decreased for Bangladesh, the EU, Mexico, and Venezuela. Projected 2018/19 world consumption is reduced 5.1 million tons with India accounting for 3.0 million of the decrease as its total wheat consumption is lowered to 95.0 million, compared to last year’s 95.8 million. This reduction is based on an upward revision to the official Indian government wheat stocks estimate for 2018/19. Global ending stocks are increased 3.0 million tons to 270.5 million, down 3 percent from last year’s record.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2019 is lowered from the previous month as lower forecast beef and turkey production more than offsets higher pork production. Beef production is reduced from the previous month on the pace of fed cattle slaughter in the first quarter and lower expected marketings in mid-2019. Partly offsetting the lower fed cattle slaughter is higher expected cow slaughter. The lower production forecast also reflects lighter carcass weights in 2019. The pork production forecast is raised slightly on the current pace of slaughter and heavier first-quarter carcass weights. The broiler production forecast is unchanged from last month. The turkey production forecast is decreased as hatchery data is pointing to lower-than-previously expected poult placements. Forecast egg production is increased on continued growth in the laying flock.
The 2019 beef, broiler, turkey, and egg trade forecasts are unchanged from the previous month. Pork imports are lowered for 2019, reflecting larger domestic supplies and limited demand for foreign product. Forecast pork exports are lowered on slower international demand for U.S. pork products.
Cattle price forecasts are raised for 2019 on current price strength and expectations of firm demand throughout the year. First- and third-quarter hog prices are reduced from the previous month. First-quarter broiler and egg price forecasts are reduced on recent price data. First-half turkey prices are raised.
For 2019, the milk production forecast is lowered on smaller expected dairy cow numbers. The fat basis export forecast is reduced on slower expected sales of butterfat due to increased global competition. Skim-solids basis exports are lowered on expected strong competition in international skim milk powder markets and slower expected demand for whey products. The fat basis import forecast is lowered slightly while the skim-solids basis import forecast is unchanged.
Annual product price forecasts for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM) are raised from the previous month, but the whey price forecast is reduced slightly. The Class III price is raised as the higher cheese price projection more than offsets the lower whey price. The Class IV price is increased on higher forecast butter and NDM prices. The all milk price forecast is raised to average $17.00 to $17.60 per cwt.
Biodiesel Drives the Work Truck Industry
As the future of the transportation industry continues to evolve, one thing remains the same – work still needs to get done, and multiple studies show that diesel engines will continue to be the industry’s preferred workhorses for many years to come. However, new research revealed this week by NTEA – The Association for the Work Truck Industry confirms that fleets across the country are increasingly relying on the power and performance of biodiesel, America’s Advanced Biofuel, to get the job done in their existing and new diesel vehicles. For the third time in four years, surveyed fleets named biodiesel as their top alternative fuel choice both for current use and future interest.
Each year, NTEA conducts a comprehensive Fleet Purchasing Outlook Survey to better understand the commercial vehicle landscape, including interest levels for advanced truck technologies and alternative fuels. Insights from NTEA’s Fleet Purchasing Outlook, provided by fleet professionals across the United States and Canada, give the entire work truck industry perspective on anticipated purchasing intent and areas of greatest interest to fleet managers. The new survey results for 2019 are being announced this week at The Work Truck Show® held in conjunction with Green Truck Summit and Fleet Technical Congress in Indianapolis. They reflect positive trends for the use of biodiesel blends in the diesel vehicle technology of yesterday, today, and tomorrow.
“We anticipate a continuation of strong purchasing activity in 2019,” said George Survant, NTEA senior director of fleet relations. “The fleet community’s interest in vehicle technology and productivity is front and center in our latest edition of the Fleet Purchasing Outlook.”
Specifically, the 2019 NTEA Fleet Purchasing Outlook revealed that the majority of fleet survey respondents – 76 percent – anticipate maintaining or increasing use of diesel engine-powered trucks in their fleets, and more than 33 percent of survey respondents acknowledged currently operating alternative fueled trucks in their fleets. Survey participants named biodiesel as their top alternative fuel choice at 16 percent. Additionally, biodiesel was named as their top choice for future interest at 14 percent. NTEA’s additional anecdotal evidence suggests that though alternative fuel interest may ebb and flow along with fluctuating oil prices, the trend will likely turn upward in the long run. It is highly likely that clean energy solutions will remain relevant due to oil price instability. The National Biodiesel Board further credits the nation’s growing interest in reducing carbon and greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector as indicators for future growth in the use of biodiesel.
As biodiesel blends can be used in any diesel engine without modification according to manufacturers’ recommendations, they offer fleets an easy and cost-effective way to reduce their carbon footprint in their existing diesel vehicle fleet. Customers from coast to coast have used B20 (a blend of 20 percent biodiesel with 80 percent ultra-low sulfur diesel) successfully in virtually every make and model diesel engine, and the vast majority of new diesel engines now have full OEM support for B20 meeting today’s ASTM specifications. Compared to fossil fuels like petrodiesel, B20 reduces carbon by 16 percent on average, with B100 reducing carbon by 80 percent.
Proactive fleets like the Chicago Park District have realized significant benefits from using biodiesel blends in their operations. With one of the highest asthma rates in the country, Chicago was looking for an effective and sustainable way to reduce harmful vehicle emissions as well as address its carbon reduction goals. They found the answer in biodiesel. The Chicago Park District began using biodiesel blends in 2013 in its fleet of more than 250 diesel vehicles and now successfully uses blends between B10 – B50 year-round.
“Since we began our biodiesel program, the health impacts of Chicago’s park maintenance operations have been greatly improved for park visitors and staff,” said Pete Probst, of Indigenous Energy, who works as a contractor for the Chicago Park District Biodiesel Program. “The annual reductions in our CO2 emissions by using biodiesel are equivalent to planting over 1,709 trees per year, and biodiesel truly offers us a ‘low-hanging fruit’ option that has been both easy to implement and cost-effective.”
The National Biodiesel Board (NBB) featured the Chicago Park District’s biodiesel fleet success story along with many others this week at the combined events of the 2019 NTEA’s Work Truck Show, Green Truck Summit, and Fleet Technical Congress at the Indiana Convention Center in Indianapolis. Along with presenting an educational session on the Future of Diesel Technology and Biodiesel for Work Trucks, NBB partnered with Isuzu Commercial Truck of America to power its 2019 Isuzu FTR medium-duty truck with B20 biodiesel for The Work Truck Show Ride-and-Drive event. Also on display in the NBB booth this year is Cummins’ new crated aftermarket diesel engine offering – the R2.8 Turbo Diesel – repowering a 1972 Jeep Commando that was brought back to new life by NBB. This is the first time a major diesel engine manufacturer has offered a crated common rail diesel engine direct to consumers as a retrofit option. Cummins supports the use of B20 biodiesel blends in all its diesel engines, including the new R2.8, giving consumers the option of using biodiesel in practically any vehicle they choose.
Record Beef Exports. Depressed Cattle Prices. What Gives?
Op-ed by Bill Bullard, CEO, R-CALF USA
The breaking news is that 2018 U.S. beef exports hit new records. The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) wrote that 2018 beef exports “shattered the previous value record and achieved a new high for volume,” and, “Export value soared to $8.33 billion, breaking the 2017 record by $1.06 billion – an increase of 15 percent.”
Just a few weeks ago, the Beef Checkoff Program announced it had achieved a 15 percent increase in beef demand.
Amidst this great news, the USMEF further proclaimed, “Beef export value was also record-shattering on a per-head basis, averaging $323.14 per head of fed slaughter in 2018.”
This must be tremendous news for cattle producers. After all, the entire meat lobby has worked diligently, if not exclusively, to convince every cattle producer that they need not worry about such trivial matters as enforcing antitrust laws, writing rules to implement the Packers and Stockyards Act, reforming trade policy, or restoring country-of-origin labeling (COOL). The meat lobby’s tireless drumbeat has been that the only thing cattle producers want and need is more beef exports and increased beef demand.
Congratulations! You did it!
And the trophy for those that sell domestic cattle --born and raised in the United States cattle – is depressed prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports the 2018 average 5-area fed steer price was $117.26. That’s less than what cattle producers received six years ago in 2012.
Six years ago, when the average steer price was higher than in 2018, the beef export value was only $5.5 billion dollars, which was $2.8 billion less than the record $8.3 billion dollars in 2018. And, the 2012 volume of beef exports was 219,000 metric tons less than the 2018 record.
So why did cattle producers earn more money in 2012, when export value, export volume, and beef demand was much less than in 2018?
Well, look at who’s capturing the lion’s share of the value of live cattle. The producers’ share of the retail beef dollar was 52.2 percent back in 2012. In 2018, with record exports and increased beef demand, the producers’ share shrank to less than 44 percent.
Geez, someone is making windfall profits from record beef exports and increased beef demand.
If you are a producer, the important thing for you to know is that that someone ain’t you!
In 2018, record exports and increased beef demand helped the multinational beef packers earn a phenomenal average gross margin of $385.20 per head for every fed cattle you, the producer, sold them. (Based on a 1,408 lb. average live steer with a 905.91 dressed weight.)
Imagine how many of your children and grandchildren would be clamoring to become U.S. cattle producers if the live cattle producer earned just half of that.
So, what about the USMEF’s claim that the beef export value on a per-head basis averaged $323.14 per head of fed slaughter in 2018?
Well, the $385.20 gross margin that went to the highly concentrated beef packers took care of that. This is perhaps the most misleading of all the beef packers’ and the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association’s (NCBA’s) propaganda campaign designed to persuade independent cattlemen that what’s good for the packer is automatically good for the producer.
All the USMEF did to arrive at its $323.14 “per head” beef export value of fed cattle slaughter was to divide the total value of exports by the number of fed cattle slaughtered in 2018. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize this is a sham. This is not a “per head” outcome. If it was, that would mean that the multinational beef packers are selling beef into the export market at a value equal to the live cattle equivalent of the beef sold.
Only an idiot would sell beef into the export market at the live cattle’s equivalent price without a markup. No, those multinational beef packers sold that beef with a big markup, at least at wholesale prices and more likely at retail and higher prices. Why else would they be so fixated on export markets when 87 percent of all beef produced in U.S. packing plants is sold to American consumers?
Oh, and they conveniently omitted from their calculation that about 2 million of the fed cattle slaughtered in the U.S. were not USA cattle at all. They were cattle imported from Canada and Mexico, and many of those were imported for immediate slaughter.
It is high time that real U.S. cattle producers joined together to take back their industry.
Welcome to the KTIC Agriculture Information blog!!! Check back here for the latest in ag news and information, from local events to international happenings and government reports that affect your operation. Please email with suggestions! -Chad Moyer, Farm Director, KTIC Radio
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