Wednesday March 6 Ag News

PLAN AHEAD TO USE COVER CROPS AS FORAGE
Bruce Anderson, NE Extension Forage Specialist

               Grazing cover crops or cutting them for hay is becoming popular.  For best results, though, it takes planning.

               Suppose you want some fall grazing.  Oats, turnips, ryegrass, and radishes, as well as some other plants can provide excellent feed.  But no matter what you plant, it will take six weeks or more to grow very much forage.  Planting after full-season corn or beans won’t leave enough growing season to get much grazable growth.

               So, how do you get more growing season days?  Planting these seeds via airplanes or other means before the crop is harvested has worked, but only sometimes.  Chopping corn for silage will certainly give you a chance to plant several weeks earlier. You also might plant earlier maturing varieties or hybrids, or even harvesting a little early and drying the crop in order to gain more growing season days for the forage cover crop.  With any of these options, though, you need to be careful that you don’t sacrifice too much production from your primary crop.

               Also be careful about the herbicides you use on your primary crop.  Some corn and bean herbicides have long residuals that can prevent establishment of late season cover crops.  Other herbicides have lengthy replant or rotation restrictions that prevent legal use of cover crops as forage.  So if you think you might plant cover crops later this year, be sure to only use herbicides compatible with your plans.

               These herbicide issues also affect cover crops that might be used as forage the following spring.  Cereal rye and other cover crops that survive over winter might become established with planting dates too late to grow any fall harvestable forage, but it still may be illegal to use them as spring forage if planted during a restriction period.

               There is lots of excitement about using cover crops as forage.  Do your homework and plan ahead if you hope to use them in your operation.



Dairy Webinar Focuses on Options for Empty Dairy Facilities

The I-29 Moo University collaborative will host a webinar titled “Renovating Dairy Barns: Giving Them a Second Career” for dairy owners considering alternatives for their dairy facilities after selling their cows. The webinar will be held at noon on Friday, March 22.

Presenters will address three topics of concern for producers making the enterprise transition:
-    Brian Dougherty, agricultural engineering specialist with Iowa State University Extension and Outreach, will cover important engineering considerations when planning for the conversion of dairy barns to facilities for other livestock. Advantages and limitations of different designs will be discussed, and examples of dairy barn conversions will be shown.
-    Bill Halfman, associate professor and agricultural agent with the University of Wisconsin, will discuss the economics of beef feeding enterprises, how to determine if they are a good fit for an operation and available resources, plus showcase spreadsheet tools and benchmark numbers producers should consider.
-    Tina Kohlman, dairy and livestock agent with the University of Wisconsin-Extension, will present on the economics for farms that are no longer milking but are considering raising pre-weaned calves to utilize their facilities and labor for income generation.

After the presentations, audience members will have an opportunity to ask questions. In addition, the program will be archived for viewing at a later time.

There is no registration fee for the webinar, but pre-registration can be completed online and is required.

Following registration, a link will be emailed with directions on how to access the webinar. Topical webinars featuring extension professionals are part of the on-going educational programs available through I-29 Moo University.

The I-29 Moo University is a consortium of extension dairy specialists from Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota. Now in its 14th year, the consortium provides resources and education to enhance a sustainable dairy community along the I-29 corridor by focusing on best management practices, utilization of research-based expertise and resources, and ag-vocating the benefits of a vibrant dairy community.

For more information on this and other I-29 Moo University programs contact Fred M. Hall at 712-737-4230 or fredhall@iastate.edu.



March 2019 Farm Income Forecast - Farm Sector Profits Expected To Increase in 2019
USDA Economic Research Service

Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast to increase $6.3 billion (10.0 percent) from 2018 levels to $69.4 billion in 2019. This follows a $12.0-billion (16.0 percent) decline forecast for 2018. In inflation-adjusted 2019 dollars, net farm income is forecast to increase $5.2 billion (8.1 percent) from 2018 after the forecast decrease of $13.9 billion (17.8 percent) in 2018. If realized, inflation-adjusted net farm income in 2019 would be 49.0 percent below its highest level of $136.1 billion in 2013 and below its historical average across 2000-17 ($90.0 billion).

Net cash farm income is forecast to increase $4.3 billion (4.7 percent) to $95.7 billion. Inflation-adjusted net cash farm income is forecast to increase $2.7 billion (2.9 percent) from 2018, which nonetheless would be the second lowest real-dollar level since 2009. Net cash farm income encompasses cash receipts from farming as well as farm-related income, including government payments, minus cash expenses. Net farm income is the more comprehensive measure of the two, in that it incorporates noncash items, including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income of operator dwellings.

Cash receipts for all commodities are forecast to increase $8.6 billion (2.3 percent) to $381.5 billion in 2019 in nominal terms. Total animal/animal product receipts are expected to increase $4.6 billion (2.6 percent) following expected increases in milk and cattle/calf receipts. Total crop receipts are expected to increase $4.0 billion (2.0 percent) from 2018 forecast levels following expected increases in corn and fruit/nuts receipts. Direct government farm payments are forecast to decrease $2.3 billion (16.8 percent) to $11.5 billion in 2019, with most of the decrease due to lower anticipated payments for Agriculture Risk Coverage, Price Loss Coverage and miscellaneous programs (which include Market Facilitation Program payments to assist farmers in response to trade disruptions).

Total production expenses (including operator dwelling expenses) are forecast to be largely unchanged from 2018 forecast levels, at $372.0 billion in 2019, with increases in spending on hired labor, feed, and interest mostly offset by dropping energy prices. When adjusted for inflation, total production expenses are forecast to decrease $4.2 billion (1.1 percent).

Farm business average net cash farm income is forecast to increase $6,400 (9.3 percent) to $75,000 in 2019. Although this is the first increase since 2014, it is also the third lowest average income recorded since the series began in 2010. Every resource region of the country is forecast to see farm business average net cash farm income increase by 5 percent or more. All categories of farm businesses except wheat and hog farm businesses are expected to see average net farm income rise in 2019.

Farm sector equity is forecast up by $28.8 billion (1.1 percent) in nominal terms to $2.65 trillion in 2019. Farm assets are forecast to increase by $44.6 billion (1.5 percent) to $3.1 trillion in 2019, reflecting an anticipated 1.8-percent rise in farm sector real estate value. When adjusted for inflation, farm sector equity and assets are forecast to decline $16.3 billion (0.6 percent) and $7.6 billion (0.2 percent), respectively. Farm debt in nominal terms is forecast to increase by $15.8 billion (3.9 percent) to $426.7 billion, led by an expected 5.1-percent rise in real estate debt. The farm sector debt-to-asset ratio is expected to rise from 13.55 percent in 2018 to 13.86 percent in 2019. Working capital, which measures the amount of cash that would be available to fund operating expenses after paying off debt due within 12 months, is forecast to decline almost 25 percent from 2018.

Median Income of Farm Operator Households Expected To Increase in 2019
Median farm household income is forecast to reach $78,987 in 2019. In nominal terms, that income level represents an increase of 3.6 percent from its 2018 level; in inflation-adjusted terms, it is a 1.9-percent increase. The total median income of U.S. farm households increased steadily over 2010-14, reaching an estimated $81,637 in 2014 in nominal terms. Median farm household income then fell 6 percent in 2015, remained flat through 2018, and is forecast to rise in 2019.

Farm households typically receive income from both farm and off-farm sources. Median farm income earned by farm households is forecast at -$1,553 in 2018 in nominal terms and is forecast to increase slightly to -$1,449 in 2019. In recent years, slightly more than half of farm households have had negative farm income and therefore rely on off-farm income to support their well-being. Median off-farm income is forecast to increase 2.6 percent from $69,366 in 2018 to $71,162 in 2019. (Because farm and off-farm income are not distributed identically for every farm, median total income will generally not equal the sum of median off-farm and median farm income.)



USDA Strengthens Partnerships and Protections to Keep African Swine Fever Out of the Country

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) today announced additional steps to keep African swine fever (ASF) from entering the United States, even as the disease spreads internationally. These steps strengthen the protections announced last fall after the deadly swine disease reached China. The goal remains to protect our nation’s swine industry from this disease. ASF does not affect people, nor is it a food safety issue.

In coordination with the pork industry, USDA’s Undersecretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs, Greg Ibach, has stated the following enhanced activities to intensify multi-agency efforts toward the prevention of ASF’s entry into the United States:
-    Work with Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) to train and add 60 additional beagle teams for a total of 179 teams working at key U.S. commercial, sea, and air ports;
-    Coordinate with CBP on the further expansion of arrival screenings at key U.S. commercial sea and air ports – including checking cargo for illegal pork/pork products and ensuring travelers who pose an ASF risk receive secondary agricultural inspection;
-    Increase inspections and enforcement of garbage feeding facilities to ensure fed garbage is cooked properly to prevent potential disease spread;
-    Heighten producer awareness and encourage self-evaluations of on-farm biosecurity procedures;
-    Work to develop accurate and reliable testing procedures to screen for the virus in grains, feeds and additives, and swine oral fluid samples;
-    Work closely with officials in Canada and Mexico on a North American coordinated approach to ASF defense, response, and trade maintenance;
-    And continue high level coordination with the U.S. pork industry leadership to assure unified efforts to combat ASF introduction.

“We understand the grave concerns about the ASF situation overseas,” said Ibach. “We are committed to working with the swine industry, our producers, other government agencies, and neighboring countries to take these additional steps.”

At the same time, USDA is continuing to enhance our planning so that we’re prepared in case we ever have to combat ASF. Along with our wide range of partner groups, we are working through several different ASF planning and response exercises. These cover different aspects – from trade implications to policy discussions to the boots-on-the-ground realities of a response. These will help everyone involved ensure their response plans are ready and identify any preparedness gaps that must be addressed.

ASF is a highly contagious and deadly viral disease affecting both domestic and feral (wild) pigs in all age groups. It is spread by contact with the body fluids of infected animals. It can also be spread by ticks that feed on infected animals. For more information, please visit the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service ASF webpage.



NPPC COMMENDS USDA FOR AFRICAN SWINE FEVER ACTION

The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) applauded additional measures announced today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to prevent the spread of African swine fever (ASF) to the United States. The risk of ASF – an animal disease affecting only pigs and with no human health or food safety risks – is growing as outbreaks continue throughout China and other parts of Asia.

"U.S. pork producers are already facing headwinds in the form of trade disputes with key export markets; an outbreak of ASF would be devastating," said NPPC President Jim Heimerl, a pork producer from Johnston, Ohio. "With no available vaccine, prevention is our only defense. We thank Undersecretary Greg Ibach and the USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) for strengthening safeguards to protect our animals and the rural economy."

The ASF-prevention measures announced today by USDA include:
    Coordination with Customs and Border Patrol to expand:
        the "Beagle Brigade" by 60 new teams for a total of 179 beagle teams at key U.S. airports and sea ports.
        arrival screenings at key U.S. airports and sea ports, including checking cargo for illegal pork/pork products and ensuring travelers who pose an ASF risk receive secondary agricultural inspection.
    Ramped up inspections and enforcement of garbage feeding facilities to ensure fed garbage is cooked properly to prevent potential disease spread.
    Increased producer awareness, including importance of self-evaluations of on-farm biosecurity procedures.
    Research on accurate and reliable testing procedures to screen for the virus in grains, feeds and additives, and swine oral fluid samples.
    Collaboration with officials in Canada and Mexico on a North American-coordinated approach to ASF defense, response and trade maintenance.
    Coordination with the U.S. pork industry leadership to assure unified efforts to combat ASF.

Heimerl added, "These are good next steps. We look forward to continued dialogue with USDA to do all that we can to keep ASF and other animal diseases out of the United States."



Pig Farmers Pack 900 Meals for Orlando-Area Children

Today, the National Pork Board kicked off activities for this week’s Pork Industry Forum in Orlando. The 15-member board packed 900 meals to help feed hungry children in the area in partnership with the Second Harvest Food Bank of Central Florida. Contributing to a better way of life in the communities where pig farmers live and work is one of the We CareSM ethical principles.

“The We Care ethical principles form the core of who we are as farmers. It is important to not only talk about our principles, but to live them out every day both on the farm and in our travels,” said Steve Rommereim, president of the National Pork Board and a pig farmer from Alcester, South Dakota. “While we have important business to attend to during the National Pork Industry Forum, we are never too busy to give back to communities, even those that we visit for a short period of time.”

Second Harvest Food Bank’s Hi-Five Kids Pack program will distribute the meals. Since 2006, the program supports educators seeking a solution to students who came to school sick and unable to learn on a Monday because they had not eaten since their school lunch the previous Friday. Second Harvest Food Bank partners with elementary schools that have a significant percentage of student participation in free and reduced-cost lunch programs to distribute the packs.

“These food packs are vitally important by offering kid-friendly items such as cereal, shelf-stable milk and juice and fruit cups,” said Dave Krepcho, President and CEO of the Second Harvest Food Bank. “We appreciate the support of the U.S. pork industry this week, especially the protein-rich pork sticks provided by the Iowa Pork Producers Association. This is something new and different for our clients.” 

Producer delegates from across the country are in Orlando this week for the annual National Pork Industry Forum. This business meeting allows directors and staff of the National Pork Board to hear directly from Pork Act delegates appointed by the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture.



USDA Announces January Income over Feed Cost Margin Triggers First 2019 Dairy Safety Net Payment

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) announced this week that the January 2019 income over feed cost margin was $7.99 per hundredweight, triggering the first payment for eligible dairy producers who purchase the appropriate level of coverage under the new but yet-to-be established Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program.

DMC, which replaces the Margin Protection Program for Dairy, is a voluntary risk management program for dairy producers that was authorized by the 2018 Farm Bill. DMC offers protection to dairy producers when the difference between the all milk price and the average feed cost (the margin) falls below a certain dollar amount selected by the producer.

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue announced last week that sign up for DMC will open by mid-June of this year.  At the time of sign up, producers who elect a DMC coverage level between $8.00 and $9.50 would be eligible for a payment for January 2019.

For example, a dairy operation with an established production history of 3 million pounds (30,000 cwt.) that elects the $9.50 coverage level for 50 percent of its production could potentially be eligible to receive $1,887.50.

Sample calculation:
$9.50 - $7.99 margin = $1.51 difference
$1.51 times 50 percent of production times 2,500 cwt. (30,000 cwt./12) = $1,887.50
The calculated premium for coverage at $9.50 on 50 percent of a 3-million-pound production history for this example would be $1,650.

Sample calculation:
3,000,000 times 50 percent = 1,500,000/100 = 15,000 cwt. times 0.150 premium fee = $1,650

Operations making a one-time election to participate in DMC through 2023 are eligible to receive a 25 percent discount on their premium for the existing margin coverage rates.

“Congress created the Dairy Margin Coverage program to provide an important financial safety net for dairy producers, helping them weather shifting milk and feed prices,” FSA Administrator Richard Fordyce said. “This program builds on the previous Margin Protection Program for Dairy, carrying forward many of the program upgrades made last year based on feedback from producers. We’re working diligently to implement the DMC program and other FSA programs authorized by the 2018 Farm Bill.”

Additional details about DMC and other FSA farm bill program changes can be found at farmers.gov/farmbill.



Prices for Half of Fertilizers Lower at End of February

For the first time in several months, retail fertilizer prices appear to be softening somewhat. Prices for half of the eight major fertilizers were slightly lower the fourth week of February 2019 compared to the previous month, according to fertilizer sellers surveyed by DTN.

However, although prices for half of fertilizers were down, none were significantly lower. DAP had an average price of $511 per ton, MAP $535/ton, urea $404/ton and UAN28 $270/ton.

The remaining fertilizers were slightly higher compared to the prior month. Potash had an average price of $386/ton, 10-34-0 $470/ton, anhydrous $596/ton and UAN32 $318/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.44/lb.N, anhydrous $0.36/lb.N, UAN28 $0.48/lb.N and UAN32 $0.50/lb.N.

All eight of the major fertilizers are now higher compared to last year with prices rising. MAP is 8% more expensive, both DAP and potash are 11% higher, urea is 12% more expensive, 10-34-0 is 13% higher, UAN32 is 14% more expensive, UAN28 is 16% higher and anhydrous is now 20% more expensive compared to last year.



Government Data Shows Record-High U.S. Ethanol Exports of 1.70 Billion Gallons in 2018

New government data released today show that U.S. ethanol exports achieved a new record in 2018, as an astonishing 1.70 billion gallons of ethanol were shipped to more than 80 countries around the world. The 2018 export total beat the previous export record set in 2017 by 25%, and the data show that nearly 11% of total U.S. ethanol production was exported last year.

Brazil was the leading destination for U.S. ethanol exports, receiving 513.2 million gallons (mg), or 30% of the total. Canada was the second-leading market with 349.6 mg, followed by India at 156.8 mg. Together, the three countries accounted for 60% percent of total ethanol exports. The European Union, South Korea, and the Philippines were other top markets in 2018. Export volumes to nine of the top 10 destinations saw increases over 2017 volumes, with Brazil, the Netherlands, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, and Colombia showing the largest gains.

The value of U.S. ethanol exports was $2.7 billion in 2018, up 14% from 2017’s value and the highest on record. Undenatured fuel ethanol accounted for 51% of total exports, while denatured fuel ethanol was 43%. Denatured and undenatured ethanol for non-fuel industrial uses made up the remaining 6% of exports.

U.S. ethanol imports remained scarce in 2018, with just 78 mg entering the country. Nearly all of the imported product entered through California ports and was used to meet the state’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard requirements.

Reflecting on the record year, RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper stated, “One of the greatest successes for our industry in 2018 was growth in the export market, driven in large part by the sustained international market development efforts of RFA and its partners. More than one out of every 10 gallons of ethanol produced in the United States went into the international market—providing savings at the pump and cleaner air for drivers in more than 80 countries around the globe. This accomplishment is even more impressive when you consider that U.S. ethanol faced punitive trade barriers in several key markets. RFA will continue to work with its partners to break down artificial trade barriers, expand export opportunities for U.S. producers, and educate the world’s consumers on the benefits of low-carbon renewable fuels.”



U.S. Ethanol Exports Reach Record High for 2018

Today, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) released the final 2018 total export numbers for ethanol, with ethanol exports reaching a record 1.70 billion gallons. Ethanol exports in 2018 surpassed 2017 exports by 326 million gallons, a 23 percent increase, and ethanol co-products like distiller's dried grains with solubles (DDGS) saw 7 percent growth. Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor issued a statement following the 2018 FAS report, noting that leveraging the benefits of ethanol is a growing international trend:

“The global appetite for ethanol has never been higher,” said Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor. “Countries around the globe are recognizing the significant role biofuels play in achieving their economic and climate goals. At Growth Energy, we are working to keep this incredible momentum going so the global ethanol outlook continues to flourish in 2019.”

The steady increase in ethanol exports over the past three years marks the expanded role that ethanol-blended fuels play in helping countries around the world achieve their economic and environmental goals. Countries such as Brazil, China, India, Canada, and the United States have begun integrating higher blends of ethanol into their fuel stream, and Growth Energy expects the global demand for the cleaner, more affordable fuel blend will continue to rise in 2019. Additionally, this year’s growth is significant given the current trade barriers that reduce access to stable markets abroad for America’s producers and farmers.

“We have seen impressive growth in biofuels markets abroad over the past three years, especially in a number of key markets,” said Growth Energy Senior Vice President of Global Markets Craig Willis. “With the highest national blend rate in the world Brazil, in particular, has seen record-breaking imports on the year. We look forward to growing the opportunities for ethanol producers and farmers through continued engagement with key partners like Canada on biofuels policy while working to reduce trade barriers in China and the EU.”

In 2018, Growth Energy submitted 5 comments on biofuels-related regulations around the globe, including comments to Canada, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Japan. In 2019, Growth Energy submitted two further comments in Canada on the Canadian Clean Fuel Standard and the Province of Ontario’s ‘Made-in-Ontario Environment Plan’ and plans to continue to engage with key biofuels regulations around the globe.



Weekly Ethanol Production for 3/1/2019

According to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association, ethanol production eased 0.4% (5,000 b/d lower) to an average of 1.024 million barrels per day (b/d), or 43.01 million gallons daily. However, the four-week average ethanol production rate rose 1.4% to 1.019 million b/d, equivalent to an annualized rate of 15.62 billion gallons.

Stocks of ethanol climbed 2.5% to 24.3 million barrels. This marks the largest reserves in 51 weeks.

There were no imports for the sixteenth week in a row. (Weekly export data for ethanol is not reported simultaneously; the latest export data is as of December 2018.)

Average weekly gasoline supplied to the market increased 0.9% to 9.062 million b/d (380.6 million gallons per day, or 138.92 billion gallons annualized). Refiner/blender net inputs of ethanol shifted 1.5% higher to a ten-week peak of 895,000 b/d—equivalent to 13.72 billion gallons annualized.

Expressed as a percentage of daily gasoline demand, daily ethanol production decreased to 11.30%.



Livestock Haulers’ Hours of Service Petition Comment Period Closes March 8

The public comment period closes March 8, 2019 for a joint petition requesting a temporary modification of hours of service (HOS) requirements for livestock, fish, and bee haulers. The petition was filed on Oct. 15 by the Livestock Marketing Association (LMA), National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA), American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), American Beekeeping Federation, American Honey Producers Association, and the National Aquaculture Association.

“As of Wednesday, March 6, 198 comments have been posted on the Federal Register,” said Jara Settles, LMA General Counsel. “LMA encourages interested parties to comment to tell their story and speak about how important safety is to the livestock industry as the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) will take public comments into consideration when deciding whether to allow livestock haulers more drive time.”

Under the current hours of service (HOS) rules, drivers are only allowed to drive for 11 hours out of a 14-hour work day after which they are required to rest for 10 consecutive hours. Many livestock hauls are farther than 11 hours and it is inappropriate from an animal welfare perspective to leave livestock on a trailer while the driver takes the required rest. Unloading the livestock is also not practical as there are not facilities available along the majority of roadways to house livestock in-transit.

Joe Goggins, LMA transportation subcommittee member said, "We need a large volume of thoughtful comments to tell the story of why this flexibility is so important. It is only common sense that every producer should comment for extra drive time for {livestock} haulers.”

Comments can be submitted by visiting the regulations.gov website and searching for docket ID number FMCSA-2018-0334-0002.

According to the LMA, the best comments are those that are professional, concise, and personal to the submitter. Begin by identifying yourself and your role in the livestock industry and how live animal transportation impacts you and your business. Then, clearly explain your support of the request for more drive time.

The number of total comments, as well as the quality of those comments matter. Hearing the impact of the currently too-short drive times allowed for livestock haulers and the impact it has on livestock marketing businesses and producers directly from the source will increase the weight with which views are heard.

Settles expressed, “LMA asks every single market owner, dealer, order buyer, and livestock producer to post a comment in support of this request for modified hours of service rules for livestock haulers. Members of the livestock and trucking industries should see this as their opportunity to have their voice heard.”

The entire petition can be viewed at LMAWeb.com/Policy. The 27 page document includes seven bullet points concerning the following: Scope of Proposed Exemption, FMCSA Authority to Grant This Exemption, FMCSA’s Prior Findings on Regulatory Relief for Livestock Hauling, Estimate of the Drivers, CMVs, and Trips Under the Exemption, Assessment of Safety Impacts of the Exemption, Ensuring an Equivalent or Greater Level of Safety under the Exemption, and Negative Impacts if the Exemption is Not Granted. 



U.S. Cattle Inventory Growth Slows
Josh Maples, Extension Economist, Dept of Ag Econ, Mississippi State University

The USDA Cattle report was released last week and it showed an estimated 0.5 percent growth in all cattle and calves for a total of 94.8 million head in the U.S. on January 1, 2019. The U.S. calf crop estimate of 36.4 million head showed 644,500 (1.8%) more calves were born in 2018 than in 2017 which marked the fourth consecutive year of calf crop increases. This report was mostly the expected mix of slight growth and hints of lower growth in the future. A larger calf crop in 2018 implies beef production will again be higher in 2019 and likely into 2020 but the cow and heifer numbers point toward smaller increases in calf crops in the future.

The inventory of beef cows was 31.8 million head which was up about one percent. However, the number of beef replacement heifers was down 3 percent from January 1, 2018 at 5.9 million head. This left beef replacement heifers at 18.7 percent of the total beef cow herd which is the lowest level since 2013, but still above herd contraction levels. Only 4 of the top 25 states showed year-over-year increases in the number of heifers for beef replacement. It is likely that we are near the end of the herd growth phase of the cattle cycle though it is worth noting there is not yet clear evidence of entering a contraction phase as calf prices remain at profitable levels. A shift higher in prices could push more expansion while lower prices in 2019 could lead to contraction.

A look at the state-level estimates shows the majority of growth in the beef cow herd can be attributed to three states: Texas (+135,000), South Dakota (+67,000), and Oklahoma (+62,000). Combined, these three states saw beef cow herd growth of 264,000 head and were major contributors to the U.S. beef cow herd growth of 299,500 head. One difference between these three states is that South Dakota and Oklahoma have surpassed their 2010 beef cow inventory levels while Texas is about 485,000 head lower. Texas (-9.4%), Montana (-1.2%) and Kentucky (-5%) are the only states in the top 10 of beef cow inventory with lower cow herds than in 2010.

These inventory responses generally align with market performance over the past two years: prices have been strong enough for nearly flat or slow expansion but not high enough for the rapid expansion seen just a few years ago. We are not yet talking about herd contraction, but we are unlikely to see large calf crop increases the next few years without a large and sustained price rally.   



Zoetis Launches First Genomic Test for Jersey Cattle

Zoetis announced the launch of Clarifide® Plus for Jerseys, the first commercially available, U.S.-based genomic test created exclusively for the Jersey breed. Clarifide Plus for Jerseys includes genomic predictions that provide direct indication of the genetic risk factors for seven of the most common and costly adult cow diseases — including milk fever — and three calf wellness traits.

“Clarifide Plus for Jerseys gives producers the opportunity to build healthier and more productive herds. It allows producers to select cattle for traits like mastitis, lameness, milk fever and scours, which are all very important to the Jersey breed,” said David Erf, geneticist, Zoetis Dairy Technical Services. “The ability to test Jerseys early in life can inform selection decisions and make a big difference in expected lifetime profit potential for dairy operations.”

Genomic predictions for milk fever and other common Jersey wellness traits
To help producers reduce the risk for costly health events, Clarifide Plus for Jerseys provides reliable assessments for seven health challenges in cows and three health challenges in calves.

Zoetis developed the Wellness Trait Index®, Calf Wellness Index™ and Dairy Wellness Profit Index® to provide the most comprehensive animal ranking selections available commercially. These selection indexes are critical components of all genetic selection strategies. They provide a path for producers to select for genetic improvement across a host of traits.

·        Dairy Wellness Profit Index: This proprietary, multitrait selection index includes production, reproduction, functional type, longevity, calving and Zoetis cow and calf wellness traits and polled* results to make more profitable animal rankings and decisions.

·        Wellness Trait Index: This index estimates differences in expected lifetime profit associated with the risk of diseases in cows (mastitis, lameness, metritis, retained placenta, displaced abomasum, ketosis and milk fever) in addition to adding the economic value for the polled gene.

·        Calf Wellness Index: This index estimates the difference in expected lifetime profit associated with the risk of calfhood diseases and early death losses.

This combined information gives producers the most comprehensive trait prediction package. This package enables the use of genetic selection to work in tandem with good management practices to help reach herd health and profitability goals.

Clarifide Plus for Jerseys builds on the proven success of Clarifide Plus for Holsteins. It comes with industry-leading support and expertise to help producers integrate test results with other Zoetis management solutions to achieve desired outcomes.