Tuesday April 28 Ag News - Crop Progress Report - Ag equals 44% of NE Economic Output - Schuler Red Angus wins Leopold Conservation Award - UNL Researchers Advance Bird Flu Vaccine - and more!

 Nebraska Crop Progress and Condition Report

Planting progress across Nebraska accelerated sharply during the past week, but the latest USDA Crop Progress report shows dry soil conditions remain the central storyline across the Great Plains. Keep in mind data was compiled as of Sunday, April 26 before a round of rain showers.

Corn planting in Nebraska reached 26 percent complete by April 26, well ahead of the five‑year average of 16 percent. Soybean planting also surged to 19 percent, more than double the normal pace for late April. Producers reported 5.9 days suitable for fieldwork, allowing planters to roll across much of the state.

Despite the strong progress, soil moisture remains limited. Nebraska topsoil moisture is rated 43 percent very short and 30 percent short, while subsoil moisture is 40 percent very short and 40 percent short. Those conditions increase concerns for crop emergence and early‑season development if rainfall remains scarce.



Iowa Crop Progress and Condition Report

There were 4.3 days suitable for fieldwork during the week ending April 26, 2026, which is 2.0 days more than last year. Topsoil moisture condition rated 2 percent very short, 8 percent short, 76 percent adequate and 14 percent surplus. Corn planting in Iowa reached 22 percent complete, which is 10 percent behind last year when 32 percent of the crop had been planted. Soybean planting reached 11 percent, which is 12 percent behind 2025, when 23 percent of the crop had been planted. Oats planting reached 74 percent, 5 percent behind last year when 79 percent had been planted.



USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report

U.S. corn planting moved slightly ahead of last year's pace and the five-year average last week, according to USDA NASS's weekly Crop Progress report released on Monday. Winter wheat conditions remained unchanged from the previous week at 30% good to excellent, NASS reported.

CORN
-- Planting progress: 25% of corn was planted nationwide as of Sunday, 3 points ahead of last year's 22% and 6 points ahead of the five-year average of 19%. 
-- Crop development: 7% of corn had emerged as of Sunday, 2 points ahead of last year's 5% and 3 points ahead of the five-year average of 4%.

SOYBEANS
-- Planting progress: An estimated 23% of intended soybean acreage was planted as of Sunday, 6 points ahead of last year at this time and 11 points ahead of the five-year average of 12%. 
-- Crop development: 8% of soybeans had emerged as of Sunday, 6 points ahead of last year and 7 points ahead of the five-year average of 1%.

WINTER WHEAT
-- Crop condition: An estimated 35% of winter wheat was rated poor to very poor as of April 26, up 16 percentage points from 19% a year ago, according to NASS.
-- Crop development: 34% of winter wheat was headed nationwide as of Sunday. That's 9 percentage points ahead of last year's 25% and 13 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 21%. 

SPRING WHEAT
-- Planting progress: 19% of the crop was planted nationwide as of April 26, 9 percentage points behind last year's pace of 28% and 3 percentage points behind the five-year average of 22%. 
-- Crop development: 5% of spring wheat was emerged as of Sunday, equal to last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five-year average of 4%.



Agriculture’s Contribution to Nebraska Economy  

Production agriculture and food-related industries are responsible for 44% of Nebraska’s economic output, tying Iowa as the most agriculturally dependent state in the U.S. The agriculture and food sectors in Nebraska also contribute around 546,000 jobs and $38.19 billion in wages. The estimates come from the Feeding the Economy Report released by the American Farm Bureau Federation in March. Nationwide, the agriculture and food sectors support nearly 49 million jobs, or roughly 30% of total U.S. employment.

The Feeding the Economy Report captures the contributions of all facets of agriculture and food production and distribution. First, it includes direct economic activity related to farms, ranches, and food-related industries, including manufacturing, wholesaling and retail where agricultural products are processed, distributed, and sold. Second, it captures the industries that supply inputs, like equipment manufacturers, fertilizer producers, transportation providers, and financial services. Finally, it analyzes how wages earned throughout the supply chain are spent in local economies, supporting restaurants, health care, housing, and other services. Capturing all these impacts, the study found food and agriculture are responsible for 20% of the country’s economic output.

Food & Agriculture Share of the Economy - by State
Nebraska - 44%
Iowa - 44% 
South Dakota - 41% 
Kansas - 32%
Minnesota - 25%
Missouri - 24%

The study is another in a long line of analyses which highlight the importance of agriculture to Nebraska. Abygail Peterson, economist for Nebraska Farm Bureau, captures agriculture’s role well when she said, “With nearly half a million jobs impacted by agriculture, this industry is vital to so many families and communities.” As such, it is important to see the sector continue to grow and prosper. Doing so will boost Nebraska’s economic growth and prosperity.



Flood and Neguse Re-Introduce Bill Supporting Precision Ag Research

U.S. Congressman Mike Flood (R-NE) partnered with colleagues in the House to re-introduced the “Precision Agriculture Workforce Training and Development Act.” This bipartisan legislation encourages the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to invest in hands-on, precision agriculture programs for students.

“Nebraska continues to be at the forefront of precision ag research,” said Congressman Flood. “As universities and colleges expand these programs, the USDA should be there to support this growing field. Thank you to Rep. Neguse (CA) for joining this effort to modernize our ag economy and better train the next generation of farmers and ranchers nationwide.”

The Precision Ag Workforce Development Act will add “Precision Agriculutre Workforce Development” to the USDA’s high priority research areas. Additionally, the bill provides special consideration for insitutions that offer cooperative education programs under the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (AFRI).



Ricketts Introduces the Sound Science Act to Increase Transparency, Strengthen Science for Regulated Chemicals

U.S. Senator Pete Ricketts (R-NE) Monday introduced the Sound Science Act.  This legislation would strengthen the science used for risk reviews and improve interagency coordination for chemicals regulated under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA).  By strengthening the scientific basis for regulation and expediting the existing chemical review process, Americans can have access to updated and safe chemistries.  Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS) is an original cosponsor.

"Nebraska farmers and ranchers depend on the EPA’s chemical review process for ingredients in livestock feed or in irrigation equipment.  Chemical determinations affect supply chains in Nebraska,” said Senator Ricketts.  “Too often, regulatory decisions are made without reflecting real-world impacts.  By using sound science and real-world risk profiles, we can have safer and advanced chemistries in the supply chain.”

The Sound Science Act would:
    Add new requirements to the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) risk evaluations including:
        Ensure evaluations are focused on real-world risks and focus on those likely to result in unreasonable risk,
        Require the EPA to use the regulatory levels which have been developed by other Federal departments for issues within their statutory obligations rather than develop their own,
        Assume compliance with existing requirements from other federal agencies like from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA),
        Subject risk evaluations to interagency review like a regulation and extend public comment period to 60 days,
        Provide that other Federal agencies have a formal commenting period of 30 days to advise EPA of critical chemistries uses and supply chain impacts under their jurisdictions;
    Provide that any scientific assessment values developed by the EPA Administrator are directly subject to judicial review;
    Add new requirements under the Toxic Substances Control Act to add new elements to the scientific standards EPA must consider including:
        Evaluating whether any scientific assessment developed by the Administrator meets scientific standards under best available science and weight of the evidence instead of simply being deferred to by the EPA,
        Consulting with other Federal agencies and specialists on whether an EPA work protection standard is needed, and
        Requiring the evaluation of comments from other Federal departments;
    Add a new committee in-person peer review for risk evaluations under EPA’s Science Advisory Committee on Chemicals.

BACKGROUND
Currently, the Toxic Substances Control Act lacks consistent risk evaluation standards under the existing chemical program, provides limited coordination among federal agencies, and does not ensure timely review of chemicals.  This legislation would speed up the current chemical review process while implementing sound scientific standards.  The Sound Science Act reforms the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) by amending the existing chemicals review process under Section 6 and the scientific standards for chemical review under Section 26.



Schuler Red Angus Receives Nebraska Leopold Conservation Award

Schuler Red Angus of Bridgeport is the recipient of the 2026 Nebraska Leopold Conservation Award.

The award honors farmers, ranchers, and forestland owners who go above and beyond in their management of soil health, water quality and wildlife habitat on working land.

The Butch and Susan Schuler family raise beef cattle and manage 20,000 acres at Schuler Red Angus in Morrill and Banner counties. The Schulers will be formally presented with the $10,000 award later this year.

Sand County Foundation and national sponsor American Farmland Trust present Leopold Conservation Awards to private landowners in 28 states. In Nebraska, the award is presented with Nebraska Cattlemen, Cargill, BASF, and the Nebraska Environmental Trust.

The award, given in honor of renowned conservationist Aldo Leopold, recognizes farmers, ranchers, and forestland owners who inspire others with their dedication to environmental improvement. In his influential 1949 book, A Sand County Almanac, Leopold advocated for “a land ethic,” an ethical relationship between people and the land they own and manage.

“Schuler Red Angus represents the best of Nebraska ranching,” said Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen. “Across generations, they have remained dedicated to investing in our state’s agricultural community and its future. Our ability to provide world-class beef depends on producers like them, and we are grateful for their commitment to the long-term sustainability of our land and our industry.”

Nebraska landowners were encouraged to apply, or be nominated, for the award last year. Nominations were evaluated by an independent panel of Nebraska agriculture and conservation leaders.

ABOUT SCHULER RED ANGUS
David and Stephanie Schuler have spent their lifetimes watching their parents Butch and Susan make their ranch “more beautiful, efficient, and sustainable for the next generation.” 

Located in Nebraska’s Panhandle, Schuler Red Angus is known for supplying other ranchers with high quality live cattle and genetics. Equally impressive are the conservation efforts that have taken place on this unique landscape, diverse in its topography and ecological communities.

The Schulers have long been committed to improving the health and resilience of their 20,000 acres of pastures and irrigated cropland in Morrill and Banner counties. Investment in extensive water infrastructure has led to better distribution of grazing cattle.

Collaboration with public and private partners has led to innovations in how to combat cheatgrass throughout the region. The invasive species from Eastern Europe found its way to western Nebraska and Wyoming. It chokes out native grasses, and its flammability is of grave concern to ranchers. Cheatgrass seeds are notorious for festering in the eyes of animals. Early each spring, cheatgrass grows, heads out to seed, and dies before livestock and wildlife can derive any nutrition.

Schuler Red Angus is one of the region’s first ranches to demonstrate the effectiveness of a herbicide with the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service. The herbicide prevents cheatgrass from going to seed for a couple of years, during which this time native grasses can get reestablished.

The Schulers treated 1,500 acres with cost-share assistance from the Nebraska Environmental Trust and Mule Deer Foundation, and self-funded treatment of another 1,000 acres. Livestock actively graze the treated areas, while leaving untreated areas with cheatgrass untouched. Schuler Red Angus hosts workshops to educate other ranchers about this research. 

The Schulers conserve water by having proper pressure and shutoffs on pipelines. Dry wells and broken windmills have been replaced with solar wells to provide water for cattle and wildlife on parts of the ranch that the pipeline does not reach. Some solar wells were relocated to create better grazing patterns across the ranch.

After every stock tank was fitted with a metal bird ladder, the Schulers noticed a large decline in bird deaths. At least one water tank is left full for wildlife even when cattle are not grazing that area. Likewise, in the absence of cattle, gates are left open for Mule deer, elk, antelope, and white-tailed deer to pass freely through the range.

Ranch employees and interns are supplied with a tool kit that includes new rubber plungers, floats, chains, and tools needed to fix overflowing stock tanks. Pipelines are set to the correct horsepower and water pressure to ensure minimal energy consumption.

Dead and downed trees near creeks are used to created windbreaks, which provide shelter for animals to live in through hard cold spells. Keeping logs and debris out of the creek’s running water also eliminates log jams and murky, slow-flow zones.

David and Stephanie say their parents have led by example when it comes to caring for the land. While logging thousands of miles aboard an ATV to check, move, and care for cattle, Butch is known to return each time with wire, trash, or a rock that didn’t belong in the prairie.

Through acts great and small, the Schulers demonstrate a land ethic that reflects deep caring for their landscape and community.

ACCOLADES
“Supporting the Nebraska Leopold Conservation Award reflects Cargill’s commitment to responsible stewardship of the land that sustains our food system. We’re proud to partner with Sand County Foundation in recognizing conservation leaders who are helping nourish the world in a responsible and sustainable way,” said Katrina Robertson, General Manger, AVP of Cargill Beef in Schuyler, Nebraska.

“These award recipients are examples of how Aldo Leopold’s land ethic is alive and well today,” said Kevin McAleese, Sand County Foundation President and CEO. “Their dedication to conservation is both an inspiration to their peers as well as a reminder to all how important thoughtful agriculture is to clean water, healthy soil, and wildlife habitat.”

“As the national sponsor for Sand County Foundation’s Leopold Conservation Award, American Farmland Trust celebrates the hard work and dedication of the award recipients,” said John Piotti, AFT President and CEO. “At AFT we believe that exemplary conservation involves the land itself, the practices employed on the land, and the people who steward it. This award recognizes the integral role of all three.”

“Schuler Red Angus is a shining example of environmental stewardship working in tandem with modern innovation. Raising Red Angus cattle while also responsibly managing the land for multiple species of wildlife takes dedication. This multi-generational family works with the land instead of against,” said Laura Field, Nebraska Cattle Executive Vice President.

“Supporting sustainable practices in agriculture helps shine a light on the good work being done by the Schuler family in Nebraska. We applaud their commitment and dedication,” said Jessica Monserrate, Head of Sustainability, BASF Agricultural Solutions.

The 2025 Nebraska Leopold Conservation Award recipient was Diamond Bar Ranch of Stapleton. To view profiles of all award recipient since 2006, visit www.sandcountyfoundation.org/Nebraska.

Sand County Foundation’s Leopold Conservation Award in Nebraska is made possible thanks to the generous support of American Farmland Trust, Cargill, BASF, Nebraska Environmental Trust, Nebraska Cattlemen, Farm Credit Services of America, USDA-Natural Resources Conservation Service of Nebraska, Audubon Great Plains, Green Cover Seed, Nebraska Partners for Fish and Wildlife, Rainwater Basin Joint Venture, Sandhills Task Force, University of Nebraska-Lincoln School of Natural Resources, and World Wildlife Fund-Northern Great Plains.

For more information on the award, visit www.leopoldconservationaward.org.



HUSKER RESEARCHERS DEVELOP PROMISING NEW VACCINE AGAINST BIRD FLU

Researchers at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln have developed a vaccine approach that shows promise in protecting against highly pathogenic bird flu, demonstrating strong efficacy in both mice and cattle.

Avian influenza, or H5N1, has disrupted agricultural systems globally, leading to the culling of more than 166 million commercial poultry birds in the United States since 2022. In 2024, the virus spread to dairy cattle — an unprecedented interspecies transfer — and subsequently caused illness in about 70 farm workers with close contact to infected animals.

The vaccine research was led by virologist Eric Weaver, professor of biological sciences and director of the Nebraska Center for Virology, along with postdoctoral fellows Joshua Wiggins and Adthakorn Madapong in the School of Biological Sciences. Their findings are forthcoming in NPJ Vaccines. The new vaccine platform is designed to protect against multiple H5N1 strains and to generate immunity in both the bloodstream and the respiratory tract.

The vaccine was tested in mice and dairy calves, producing strong immune responses and complete protection against severe disease in preclinical models. The results suggest the approach could offer protection for livestock, particularly because there are currently no licensed H5N1 vaccines for cattle.

Weaver said the team built on earlier work from his lab when the cattle outbreak began.

“I had started working on this as a potential problem in 2005, but the last publication was around 10 years ago,” he said. “When the outbreak began, my hope was that this would cycle through dairy cattle and be gone, but that didn’t happen. It got progressively worse, and I was worried.”

Working with the Animal Care Team at Nebraska, the researchers obtained calves for testing in early 2025. The calves were vaccinated at one week of age using a combination of intramuscular and intranasal delivery and received a booster four weeks later. In a separate experiment, vaccinated mice were fully protected against lethal infection from multiple H5N1 strains.

“The idea was that if we put it intramuscularly, we can prevent it from spreading in the body, and then a mucosal aspect, intranasally, would prevent it from spreading from animal to animal,” Weaver said.

With these new findings, Weaver is seeking funding and potential partnerships to further evaluate the vaccine, including development of a multispecies option. Protecting cattle from H5N1 could reduce economic losses for producers while limiting opportunities for the virus to adapt and spread to humans.

“We’d like to have a vaccine for the farm and the farmer, and everything shows that this would be an effective vaccine platform for humans, as well,” Weaver said.

As diseases continue to cross species barriers, Weaver said research like this will be critical to protecting Nebraska and the global community.

“Historically, these things will move into other species if there is extended contact long enough for the evolution to occur,” he said. “Influenza A viruses have never been an issue in cattle, but it is now, and it’s not going away.”



More Butter and Cheese In Cold Storage
Fred Hall, Dairy Field Specialist, ISU Extension

U.S. dairy inventories showed mixed movement in the latest USDA Cold Storage report, signaling a market that remains well supplied in some categories while tightening in others. Stocks held in refrigerated warehouses as of March 31, 2026, reflect seasonal shifts in milk production and processor demand as the industry transitions into spring.

The amount of butter inventory at the end of March was 288.8 million pounds, compared to 256.2 million pounds in February.  The March butter stocks were lower than a year ago, when there was 323.1 million pounds in cold storage.

Cheese inventories presented a more balanced picture. Total natural cheese stocks in cold storage increased modestly from February but remained lower than the same period last year. American-style cheese inventories also showed slight tightening on an annual basis, while stocks of other cheese varieties continued to fluctuate with production schedules and export demand. USDA data indicated that total natural cheese holdings were up about 1 percent from the previous month but down 2 percent from March 2025.

For dairy producers, lower year-over-year cheese inventories may be viewed as supportive for Class III milk pricing, especially if demand remains steady through spring and early summer. Cheese stocks are closely monitored because they often serve as an indicator of whether production is outpacing consumption. When inventories remain manageable, markets tend to interpret this as a sign of balanced supply.

Dry dairy ingredients continue to play an important role in overall inventory trends. While the Cold Storage report focuses primarily on refrigerated inventories, broader USDA dairy product data suggests milk powder and whey markets remain influenced by export demand and international competition. U.S. processors continue adjusting production to meet shifting global needs for skim solids and protein ingredients.

The March inventory picture highlights a dairy market that is neither oversupplied nor severely constrained. Butter inventories appear available, cheese stocks remain relatively balanced, and demand continues to absorb a large share of production. For producers, these figures suggest that dairy product movement remains healthy despite broader economic uncertainty.

Looking ahead, traders and producers will watch upcoming milk production reports alongside future cold storage data to determine whether inventory levels continue tightening into summer. Seasonal milk growth, export performance, and domestic consumer demand will remain key drivers influencing dairy product prices in the months ahead.



Millions-strong Farmer Coalition Urges Prop. 12 Relief in Farm Bill

The National Pork Producers Council and the American Farm Bureau Federation, representing more than 5 million members, led a coalition urging Congress to provide regulatory certainty for farmers across the country forced to comply California Proposition 12—and the impending patchwork of differing state laws that could ultimately impact prices for consumers.
 
Taking their concerns directly to congressional leadership, a coalition of nearly 400 agricultural groups sent a letter to Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), detailing robust arguments opposing the extraterritorial state law.

    The massive problems caused by Prop. 12 cannot be solved via regulation or executive order—it is solely Congress’ authority and responsibility to provide a solution, as noted in the 2023 U.S. Supreme Court decision.  

    Prop. 12 has created uncertainty across rural America, especially on small and medium-sized farms, as they have less financial ability to retrofit barns to comply with the restrictive law. 

    There is significant bipartisan willingness to fix Prop. 12. 
    o    Trump administration Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins said, “[Proposition 12] is not just affecting California. It’s affecting multitudes of other states, multitudes of other parts of the ag community, including our hog family farms.”  
    o    Biden administration Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack said, “California’s Proposition 12 is not a narrow issue, nor is it a regional one. It goes to the heart of whether farmers across the country can operate under consistent, responsible, science-based standards—or be subject to a shifting patchwork of mandates they cannot control and cannot afford. When I served as Secretary of Agriculture the Supreme Court of the United States made clear, resolving these interstate challenges is the responsibility of Congress. I encouraged Congress to act then, and I am again encouraging Congress to act now. The farm bill presents a clear and immediate opportunity to provide that certainty and uphold the principles that have long sustained American agriculture and the affordability of our food supply.” 

    Laws like Prop. 12 do not improve animal welfare and lack scientific evidence.
    o    The American Veterinary Medical Association said, “the arbitrary housing requirements in Prop 12 do not objectively improve animal welfare and may unintentionally cause harm.” 

    Prop. 12 sets the stage for an unworkable 50-state patchwork of laws. 
    o    A proposal in Oklahoma would increase housing requirements beyond Prop. 12. This means that pork producers nationwide, regardless of whether they have converted to be Prop. 12-compliant, would yet again be out of compliance to access another state market.

    Farmers’ costs to house their animals are increasing.  
    o    Multiple university studies show that constructing new, Prop. 12-compliant barns can cost 25-40% more per sow than other housing styles, not including the estimated 15% higher operating costs per pig caused by reduced productivity. 

    Prop. 12 is responsible for declining food affordability as grocery story pork prices are skyrocketing.  
    o    North Dakota State University economists found that since Prop. 12 was implemented, prices for covered products in California have increased nearly 20% on average.  

    Prop. 12 leads to pork industry consolidation, as smaller farms close their doors because of the regulatory burdens and high costs of complying with Prop. 12.

The 2026 House Farm Bill protects everyone’s freedom to farm while also allowing states to act independently by allowing laws that regulate practices and impact commerce within their borders. California’s Proposition 12 goes beyond those protections and dictates practices in other states.
 
NPPC and almost 400 other agricultural groups stand up for the rights of all pork producers, regardless of size, and call on Congress to pass the House Farm Bill with a Prop. 12 fix. 




Fund Ag Export Promotion Programs, Says Coalition
 
The Coalition to Promote U.S. Agricultural Exports, which more than 130 other agriculture organizations, is urging the House Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee to include “full, mandatory” funding for two export promotion programs in the fiscal 2027 agriculture appropriations bill.
 
In a letter to Reps. Andy Harris (R-MD) and Sanford Bishop (D-GA), the chairman and ranking member, respectively, of the Subcommittee on Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies, the coalition asked that funding continue for the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Market Access Program and Foreign Market Development Program, “an investment which is making a difference.”
 
The coalition pointed out that private-sector investment through MAP is $2.50 for each $1 in federal funding, while FMD spending is $3.25 for each federal dollar appropriated. “Full funding for these programs is abundantly necessary,” said the coalition.
 
Exports add significantly to the bottom line of every U.S. agricultural producer. In countries around the world, MAP and FMD have helped promote U.S. farm products, which generated economic output of more than $362 billion in 2023, according to USDA. That means for every $1 of U.S. agricultural goods exported, $2.06 of domestic economic activity was generated.



Could Beef-on-Dairy Adoption be Leading to More Heifers on Feed?
David Anderson
Extension Specialist – Livestock and Food Product Marketing
Texas A&M University

Beef-on-dairy remains among the most discussed topics in the beef industry. Questions have been raised about the impacts of beef-on-dairy on beef production, which we discuss in a 2024 Cattle Market Notes Weekly article. A question that has received less attention, but we believe is just as important, is whether growth in beef-on-dairy has the potential to mask changes in cattle inventories in USDA NASS reports. Specifically, the January and July Cattle Inventory reports and the monthly and quarterly Cattle on Feed report. The objective of this article is to explain how beef on dairy could impact cattle inventory reporting. Specifically, we examine scenarios in which growth in beef-on-dairy programs may increase the number of cattle entering the beef supply and change the composition of those cattle.

Beef-on-dairy can affect beef supplies in two ways: the total number of cattle entering the beef supply and the composition of cattle in the U.S. beef supply. First, beef-on-dairy may change the number of cattle entering the beef supply chain by altering the relative value of dairy heifers. Historically, dairy heifers are valued highest as dairy cow replacements. Excess heifers, those in excess of dairy cow replacement needs entered the beef supply chain. However, growth in beef-on-dairy programs can increase the value of dairy heifers and bull calves as part of the beef supply chain. This could potentially influence heifer retention decisions in the dairy sector and affect the share of dairy heifers retained for herd replacement each year. Second, beef-on-dairy alters the composition of cattle by shifting dairy-origin calves that would traditionally enter the system as straight-bred dairy steers and heifers into a distinct beef-on-dairy category. This effectively creates a third class of animal in the beef production system alongside traditional straight-beef breed and straight-dairy cattle breed. Although we might argue that these are simply another cross bred type of cattle.

The data from the January Cattle Inventory report shows that from 2017 to 2026 the dairy cow herd has ranged from 9.34 million to 9.57 million head. At the same time, the ratio of dairy replacement heifers to dairy cows has declined from 50.7% in 2017 to 40.8% in 2026. While the dairy herd has been relatively stable during that time, the pool of heifers being held for dairy replacement has been shrinking. While some of this is likely due to producers more efficiently targeting heifer semen to the right cows, one must also think some of this is due to the potential value of those non-replacement dairy calves, many of which are now beef sired. The proliferation of information for better decision making on dairies has led to fine tuning the number of replacement heifers needed, especially given the cost of heifer development, and freeing up more beef sired calves for the record high calf market.

One industry report that the beef cattle sector pays close attention to, because of its implications for herd rebuilding, is the quarterly Cattle on Feed (COF) report from USDA-NASS. In the quarterly COF, published at the beginning of each quarter, cattle on feed inventories are reported separately for steers and heifers, and the key statistic discussed is heifers on feed as a percent of total cattle on feed. When heifer retention increases for the purpose of beef cow herd expansion, heifers represent a small share of total on-feed inventory. However, the reported number of heifers on feed does not distinguish between beef, dairy, and beef-on-dairy heifers. Higher adoption of sexed semen for dairy replacement heifers, combined with incentives to use more beef semen on dairy cows, has the potential to result in more calves born from dairy cows being placed on feed. A good portion of these are likely heifers, which suggest it could also inflate heifers on feed as a percent of total cattle on feed. If this were occurring, it could mask early signs of beef cow herd rebuilding.

The January 2026 COF reported that heifers on feed totaled 4.435 million head, or 38.7% of total cattle on feed. To estimate the potential impacts of beef-on-dairy and sexed-semen adoption, we subtract the estimated increase in heifers associated with increased adoption of both from total reported heifers on feed. A key challenge is that assumptions about beef-on-dairy and sexed-semen adoption rates are hard to pin down. Our baseline assumes a 50/50 steer-heifer dairy calf crop with no sexed semen and no beef-on-dairy. The increase in heifers is calculated assuming 75% adoption of sexed semen for dairy replacement heifers and 25% adoption of sexed semen for beef-on-dairy steers. Under these assumptions, we estimate that a little over 1.5 million dairy heifers enter feedlots annually, compared to a little less than 940 thousand under the baseline scenario. This implies an increase of approximately 600 thousand heifers entering feedlots each year relative to the baseline. After applying this adjustment, the implied beef breed heifers-on-feed total for January 2026 is 4.186 million head, or 36.6% of total cattle on feed. Even after adjusting for potential beef-on-dairy heifers it is still a relatively large number of beef breed heifers on feed and doesn’t really change drastically implications about herd expansion. For perspective, the estimated increase of roughly 600,000 heifers entering feedlots annually is large relative to recent changes in beef inventories. For example, the beef cow herd declined by about 1%, while beef heifer inventories increased by only about 41,000 head, suggesting these dynamics could meaningfully influence how cattle inventory data are interpreted.

Rather than focusing on any single assumption about adoption rates, Figure 2 calculates the combinations of sexed semen use that would generate the same adjusted heifer share of total cattle on feed. The line in the figure represents combinations of adoption rates that produce a heifer share of approximately 38.7%, which matches the heifer share implied by the January 2026 Cattle on Feed report. Points along the line yield the same implied heifer-on-feed percentage. Combinations above the line result in a larger adjusted heifer share, while combinations below the line result in a smaller share.

For example, if the industry adopts 70% sexed semen for dairy replacement heifers, then adoption of sexed semen for beef-on-dairy steers above approximately 42% would imply an upward adjustment in the heifer-on-feed percentage above 38.7%. Alternatively, adoption below approximately 42% would imply a heifer share below 38.7%.

This approach shifts the emphasis away from identifying a single assumed adoption rate and instead highlights the tradeoff between dairy replacement and beef-on-dairy adoption. Because no comprehensive industry-wide data exist documenting adoption of sexed semen for either dairy replacements or beef-on-dairy programs, presenting the results in this way allows us to evaluate how alternative combinations of adoption rates would affect the implied heifer share, without requiring a definitive assumption.

Beef-on-dairy and the use of sexed semen in the dairy industry both have implications for the beef industry, particularly for how cattle inventories are interpreted in USDA-NASS reports. As an example, we have shown how these changes in the dairy industry might impact the quarterly estimate of heifers on feed in the USDA-NASS COF report. This is something that analysts need to keep in mind when they interpret the gender breakdown from these quarterly reports. An additional issue is that beef-on-dairy cattle are not always easily distinguishable from straight-beef cattle once they enter feedlots. As a result, simply reporting beef-on-dairy cattle as a separate category in existing USDA reports is not a straightforward solution to what we believe is a potential measurement and interpretation problem in these reports. This is a separate issue that is worth having its own article.