Monday October 22 Ag News

Cow-Q-Lator Answers Questions About Pricing

After this summer's drought caused a forage shortage for cattle producers, many are venturing into grazing cornstalks for the first time. This raises questions not only about pricing, but also the responsibilities renters have during grazing.

Factors like fencing and animal care can affect price, along with distance and number of animals. The Cornstalk Grazing Cow-Q-Lator (http://westcentral.unl.edu/web/westcentral/agecon3) is a tool that can help both the corn and cattle producers determine a reasonable rate, according to Extension ag economist Matt Stockton.

"The tool is designed for cattle producers to evaluate costs of cornstalk grazing," Stockton said. "However, it could be used by a corn producer to calculate how much a prospective lessee can pay."

The Cow-Q-Lator takes many of these effects into account to determine the price of renting acres. This Microsoft Excel spreadsheet includes entries for number and size of animals, transportation costs as well as for care and supervision.

"Corn producers will find that the farther they are from the cattle's home, the less their stalks are worth," Stockton said. "However, they may be able to provide animal care and supervision and reduce the owner's costs."

Rent may be higher, for example, if the owner of the property builds the fence around the grazing area. Producers can also use the Cow-Q-Lator to the point at which the cost of transportation exceeds cost of lease. With the Cow-Q-Lator, both lessor and lessee can play around and figure out the best deal.

For more information on the Cow-Q-Lator, visit cropwatch.unl.edu or www.agmanagerstools.com. 



Nominations Now Open for Young Cattlemen’s Conference

Nomination are now being excepted for the 2013 Nebraska Cattlemen Young Cattlemen’s Conference (YCC) Conference which is scheduled for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, January 22-24.

Identifying and educating leaders to help guide and strengthen our beef  industry is important to the future of  Nebraska’s agriculture.  The Nebraska Cattlemen believe that it is important for active beef  producers to see all sides of  the beef  industry and take an active role in telling the beef  story and advocating on behalf  of  our way of  life.  The goal of  the Young Cattlemen’s Conference is to expose young and emerging leaders to a variety of  areas of  the beef  industry and provide them with leadership tools.

This program is made possible by a generous sponsorship from Farm Credit Services of  America.

For more information contact Bonita Lederer at 402.450.0223(mobile) or 402.329.6273 (home-offce) or email at blederer@necattlemen.org.



Meetings Scheduled in Response to Herbicide Resistant Weed Issues

In response to expanding problems associated with herbicide resistant weeds, weed specialists with Iowa State University Extension and Outreach will conduct a series of meetings in November and December to address the issue. The meetings will provide information about causes of herbicide-resistant weed populations and objectively evaluate weed management programs currently used in Iowa, and provide support for development of durable weed management programs.

Registration at each location opens at 8:30 a.m. with the program beginning at 9 a.m. and concluding with a noon meal. There is no cost to attend this program; however advance registration is appreciated for meeting logistics and lunch counts. Additional information regarding the program and online registration is available at www.aep.iastate.edu/weeds.

Meeting dates and locations
-    Nov. 20 – Decorah; The Oaks Steakhouse
-    Dec. 4 – Ottumwa; Bridgeview Center
-    Dec. 18 – Clear Lake; Best Western Holiday Lodge
-    Dec. 19 – Wall Lake; Community Center
-    Dec. 20 – Red Oak; Red Coach Inn



Feed Management and Planning Meetings for Beef Producers Begin Nov. 6

As cow-calf and feedlot operators continue to deal with drought related issues, Iowa State University Extension and Outreach and the Iowa Beef Center will continue to offer educational opportunities to address ongoing and emerging issues.  “Drought – a Game Changer for Beef Operations” is the title of meetings to be held Nov. 6 – Dec. 6 across Iowa. The meetings will look at strategies those in the beef industry may consider as they move forward.

“These fall meetings will focus on managing feed costs and alternative feeds for fall and winter feeding for the cow herd or feedlot use,” said Russ Euken, beef specialist with ISU Extension and Outreach.  “Developing feeding programs that use available feeds and keep feed costs in check is the goal.” 

Meeting topics were determined by the needs of producers dealing with drought issues. Topics include the following:
-    With corn costs relatively high, producers are searching for ways to reduce corn use but still maintain performance.
-    Chemically treating lower quality forages and supplementing the forage or drought stressed corn silage will be a part of the discussion.
-    A situation update on beef outlook, current beef supply and demand, and feed price outlook will  be provided by Lee Schulz, extension livestock economist, via a recorded presentation.
-    A short update on precipitation outlook will be provided by Elwynn Taylor, extension climatologist, via a recorded presentation.
-    The meetings also will give an introduction to planning for next year and beyond for beef producers and highlight factors producers should be considering.

Winter meetings covering additional topics are being considered. Topics for these meetings will be determined as the weather and economic situation develop.

To find a November or December meeting location, contact any county extension office, Iowa Cattlemen’s Association, or go to www.iowabeefcenter.org to find a listing of all dates and locations. There will be a $10 per person fee payable at the door to cover refreshments and other miscellaneous cost. This could vary at individual sites.

Meeting dates and locations
Nov. 6, Ames. Iowa Cattlemen’s Headquarters – 1 :30 p.m.
Nov. 13, Maquoketa. Hurtsville Interpretative Center – 1 p.m.
Nov. 13, Carroll. Carroll County Extension office –6:30 p.m.
Nov. 13, Garner. Hancock County Extension office – 6:30 p.m.
Nov. 13, Chariton. ISU McNay Research Farm – 1 p.m.
Nov. 14, Brandon. Community Center – 6:30 p.m.
Nov. 14, Osage. Mitchell County Extension office – 6:30 p.m.
Nov. 14, Estherville. Northstar Bank, 220 Central Ave. – 1:30-4 p.m.
Nov. 14, Knoxville. Marion County Extension office – 6:30 p.m.
Nov. 15, Badger. Community Building – 6:30 p.m.
Nov. 15, Postville. Vet Clinic –  6:30 p.m.
Nov. 15, LeMars. Plymouth County Extension office,  251 12 St. SE – 9:30 a.m.
Nov. 19, Conrad. American Legion – 1:30 p.m.
Nov. 19, Dumont. Library – 6:30 p.m.
Nov. 19, Castana. ISU Research and Demonstration Farm, 36515 Hwy E-34 – 1:30 p.m.
Nov. 20, Storm Lake. Buena Vista County Extension office, 824 Flindt Dr. –  9:30 a.m.
Nov. 20, Villisca. Villisca Community Building, 207 South 3rd Ave. – 6:30 p.m.
Nov. 27, Houghton. Pilot Grove Savings Bank  – 7 p.m.
Nov. 27, Atlantic. Cass County Extension office – 6:30 p.m.
Nov. 29, Moravia. Lighthouse Church of the Nazarene – 7 p.m.
Dec. 3, Winterset. Madison County Extension office – 6:30 p.m.
Dec. 4, Washington. Washington County Extension office – 7p.m.
Dec. 6, Mt. Ayr. Ringold County Extension office – 6:30 p.m.



NCBA:  United States Trade Representative Announces Implementation of the U.S.-Panama FTA

The United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced today that the United States-Panama Trade Promotion Agreement, also known as the Free Trade Agreement (FTA), will enter into force on Oct. 31, 2012. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA), the oldest and largest national organization representing the cattle industry, is greatly encouraged by this news and the ultimate removal of tariffs and other barriers to U.S. exports, including U.S. agricultural exports.

“The cattle industry has been waiting on implementation of this agreement for a long time and we’re looking forward to increased trade opportunities with Panama,” said Bob McCan, NCBA vice president and a Texas cattleman. “The U.S.-Panama Free Trade Agreement immediately eliminates the 30 percent tariff on prime and choice beef cuts and all other duties will be phased out over the next 15 years. This is a positive step forward for American cattlemen and women.”

Panama is one of the fastest growing economies in Latin America with forecasts of between five to eight percent annual growth through 2012. This agreement provides U.S. ranchers access to this valuable market. Similar to the FTA with Colombia, the agreement with Panama provides assurances for a stable export market through plant inspection equivalency. Additionally, Panama modified its import requirements related to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) to be consistent with international standards. With these agreements in place, the United States will have free trade for U.S. beef with approximately two-thirds of the population in the Western Hemisphere.

“NCBA has been an outspoken supporter of this agreement and others like it because they increase market access and provide stable export markets based on internationally recognized scientific standards,” McCan said. “We are encouraged by today’s news and we appreciate Ambassador Kirk and the USTR’s leadership in moving these agreements forward.”



Vilsack on U.S. - Panama Trade Promotion Agreement

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack today made the following statement on the U.S. - Panama Trade Promotion Agreement:

"The U.S.-Panama Trade Promotion Agreement (Panama TPA) enters into force next week, eliminating tariffs and other barriers to U.S. goods and services, promoting economic growth, and enhancing trade between the United States and Panama. Last year, President Obama insisted that we get this agreement with Panama right-alongside pacts with South Korea and Colombia-forging a better deal for America's workers and businesses that led to strong bipartisan support in both houses of Congress. Altogether, these agreements will bring an additional $2.2 billion in agricultural exports.

Panama is an important market for America's farmers and ranchers. In 2011, the United States exported more than $504 million of agricultural products to Panama, one of the fastest growing economies in Latin America. Next week, nearly half of current U.S. farm exports to Panama will become duty free immediately and most of the remaining tariffs will be eliminated within 15 years.

Since the time when the President signed the Panama, Colombia and Korea agreements into law, USDA has also acted to remove hundreds of unfair barriers to trade for American companies and provide businesses with the resources they need to reach new markets. These efforts have resulted in the most successful period in the history of American agriculture and a boon for America's rural economies. We are experiencing the strongest four years for agricultural exports in our nation's history and are forecast to continue this record success in 2013."



Welcoming Officials from Philippines to Open Markets for U.S. Corn

Last week, the National Corn Growers Association hosted a team of government officials from the Philippines brought here by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service to look at current trends and legislation relating to biotechnology and to examine the effects biotechnology has on small farms and rural incomes.

The team, which included Committee Affairs Bureau of the House of Representatives Executive Director Viola Veloso, Department of Agriculture Assistant Secretary Edilberto De Luna and National Corn Competitiveness Board Executive Director Salvador Umengan, was brought to the United States in the hopes that their training would continue to support the Philippines's implementation of science-based agricultural biotechnology regulations.

NCGA consistently promotes the development of science-based regulations for biotechnology and in many other areas. In helping develop the knowledge base necessary to do so abroad, NCGA increases opportunities to commercialize biotech crops abroad. This team in particular could benefit corn farmers due to the Philippines's role as a biotech leader in the region.

NCGA Director of Biotechnology and Economic Analysis Nathan Fields provided the team with an overview presentation on how new varieties of corn developed through biotechnology have helped corn farmers as individuals and the industry as a whole.



USDA Cold Storage Highlights

Total red meat supplies in freezers were up 3 percent from the previous month and up 15 percent from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 2 percent from the previous month and down slightly from last year. Frozen pork supplies were up 8 percent from the previous month and up 28 percent from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 17 percent from last month and up 79 percent from last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies on September 30, 2012 were down 3 percent from the previous month and down 1 percent from a year ago. Total stocks of chicken were down 1 percent from the previous month and down 3 percent from last year. Total pounds of turkey in freezers were down 5 percent from last month but up 2 percent from September 30, 2011.

Total natural cheese stocks in refrigerated warehouses on September 30, 2012 were down 1 percent from the previous month and down 5 percent from September 30, 2011.  Butter stocks were down 3 percent from last month but up 29 percent from a year ago.

Total frozen fruit stocks were up 2 percent from last month and up 10 percent from a year ago.  Total frozen vegetable stocks were up 11 percent from last month and up 2 percent from a year ago.



Beef Checkoff Reaches Nutrition Thought-Leaders at Conference

Jeanne Harland, beef producer from Illinois and vice chairman of the checkoff's Joint Nutrition and Health Committee, recently joined the beef checkoff by attending the 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics annual Food and Nutrition Conference & Expo to reach nutrition thought-leaders, including registered dietitians and other credentialed health professionals and media at the recent in Philadelphia, Penn. Harland says we’ve come a long way since she got involved in beef promotion.

Harland says,  “When I started doing beef promotion, I would go to grocery stores and I would hand out little bite-sized samples of beef to people, and I had – it was common in those days – people would put their hand up and say ‘no, my doctor told me I can’t eat red meat.’ Now I go into those stores and I can see packages of lean beef with that heart healthy symbol on them. And that’s a huge, huge step and that never, never would’ve happened without the interaction with nutritionists and dietitians.”

Harland says many of the people that came by the booth were corporate nutritionists.  “But the ones that work for corporations, they might be in charge of providing dietary information for thousands and thousands of people. So I can’t think of a better return on investment than spending 20 minutes talking to somebody who might have that scope of influence, you know even more than the ones that might see a couple hundred in a week.”

Harland says it’s about relationships – maintaining the checkoff’s relationship with dietitians and health professionals is extremely important because they know the checkoff has science-based research and in turn, that’s who they turn to for the facts.  She says,  “I think it’s because we have research to back up absolutely everything we say. Every piece of educational material has research. It’s all cited, it’s all verifiable, and I think that is probably how we’ve made our best impact is by always providing that science and always that research, because these are ‘science people’. I just think that is a tremendously important part of what we do with our money is to fund that research.”



Oil Falls Below $89

(AP) -- Oil hit a three-week low as a major North American pipeline got set to reopen.

Benchmark oil fell $1.32, or 1.5 percent, to finish at $88.73 in New York. That followed a 2 percent decline on Friday and is the lowest close since Oct. 3.

TransCanada is expected to soon restart its 2,100-mile Keystone pipeline. It was shut Wednesday after tests showed possible safety issues. The pipeline carries about 590,000 barrels of crude per day from Canada to facilities in the Midwest.

Falling U.S. stock markets may have also influenced oil traders. Caterpillar, the world's biggest maker of construction and mining equipment, said it doesn't expect the global economy to improve until the second half of next year. Such forecasts signal reduced demand for oil.

U.S. drivers are finally seeing relief at the gas pump. The nationwide average for a gallon of gas fell nearly 5 cents over the weekend to $3.665. That's the lowest price since early August.

In London Brent crude fell 70 cents to end at $109.44.

In other energy trading in New York:
_ Heating oil fell 5.78 cents to finish at $3.0767 per gallon.
_ Wholesale gasoline fell 4.88 cents to end at $2.6475 per gallon.
_ Natural gas fell 16.5 cents to finish at $3.452 per 1,000 cubic feet.



National FFA Organization launches long-term plan to help eliminate hunger Wednesday with million-meal rally

FFA members from all 50 states will take the first swing Wednesday of a long-term fight to help eliminate global hunger.

As a kickoff event of the 2012 National FFA Convention & Expo, more than 10,000 FFA members, teachers, alumni and volunteers will work hour-long shifts from Wednesday through Friday and pack meals during the “Rally to Fight Hunger.” The rally kicks off at 12:45 p.m. with public remarks at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Their collective goal: Create 1 million meals by Friday night. Half will be distributed in the Indianapolis area and half will be shipped overseas in coordination with Kids Against Hunger, a humanitarian food-aid organization.

“No one is better positioned to address hunger than FFA members who are tomorrow’s leaders who will provide food and nutrition for a growing planet,” said National FFA Organization CEO Dwight Armstrong. “Hunger is the right issue for FFA and it is fully aligned with our values and vision. What FFA members learn in Indianapolis at our rally will prepare them to continue fighting hunger in more than 7,500 local communities – and beyond where relief and solutions are desperately needed.”

The rally will kick off the National FFA Organization’s global “Feeding the World–Starting at Home” initiative, a movement to help students understand the issues and effects of global hunger.

In support of the new initiative, on Thursday 35,640 pounds of chili with beans donated by Hormel Foods and more than 30,000 pounds of fresh turkey donated by Tyson Foods will be delivered to Gleaners Food Bank, 3737 Waldemere Ave., in Indianapolis. Hormel and Tyson have been corporate sponsors of FFA for 39 and 37 years, respectively.

“Feeding the World-Starting at Home” is sponsored in part by Farmers Feeding the World through the National FFA Foundation.



Hall of Fame figure skater Scott Hamilton to inspire more than 55,000 students at 2012 National FFA Convention & Expo Wednesday

While one contingent of blue hits the road this weekend to take on Tennessee, another will converge on the city to be inspired, compete for scholarships, perform community service and help shape the future of the National FFA Organization.

More than 55,000 student members of FFA and their teachers from throughout the U.S., Puerto and the Virgin Islands will attend this week’s annual National FFA Convention & Expo. This year’s event – the 85th consecutive gathering since FFA was founded in 1928 – runs Wednesday through Saturday.

Nine general sessions will bring tens of thousands of FFA members together at a single time under a single roof during the four-day event at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and Lucas Oil Stadium. They will also flow through the aisles of the Expo, an event that showcases nearly 400 corporations, businesses, organizations and colleges Wednesday through Friday at Indiana Convention Center.

Figure skating star Scott Hamilton will be the keynote speaker during the convention's opening session. Hamilton was inducted into the U.S. Olympic Hall of Fame and is a privileged member of the World Figure Skating Hall of Fame. He captured the world’s attention 25 years ago with his Olympic gold-medal performances in Sarajevo. Since, Hamilton has been a sport commentator and best-selling author. He inspires others as a speaker, philanthropist and cancer and brain tumor survivor.

Other keynote speakers include Dr. Lowell Catlett, a nationally renowned agriculture professor, former NBA star Walter Bond and native Hoosier Josh Bleill, a former Marine-turned-motivational-speaker after losing both legs while serving in Iraq.

The convention and expo and its various event components are closed to the general public.

Throughout the week, FFA members and teachers attend workshops and take career and educational tours of central Indiana businesses, including Dow AgroSciences, Elanco Animal Health, CISCO companies, Chip Ganassi Racing, Purdue University, Hoosier Park and more.

FFA members from California to Maine and everywhere in between will also complete for a host of national awards during the week and have the ability to learn more about careers and talk to company recruiters during a career fair.

The Band Perry with special guest Brantley Gilbert will perform at 9:30 p.m. Wednesday at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Thursday, FFA members will canvas the central Indiana community and perform various community service as part of convention week’s National Days of Service event. FFA members will give their talents, skills and time to Damar Services, Gleaners Food Bank, Indy Parks, Second Helpings, St. Vincent de Paul and more.

And the World's Toughest Rodeo featuring world-class bareback, saddle bronc and bull riders begins at 6:30 p.m. Thursday and Friday nights. Friday night's rodeo will be the last event held at the Indiana State Fairground's Coliseum before the building undergoes a full renovation. A special ceremony featuring state, city and fairground leaders will be held immediately following the Friday night show to commemorate the building’s rich history.

Also Friday night, a live performance by country artist Levi Riggs will kick off the FFA Dance, a new, two-hour event for all FFA members presented by the National FFA Alumni Association. DJ Doug will provide the sounds for the lock-in dance at the Indiana Convention Center.

The 2012 National FFA Convention & Expo will culminate Saturday with the election of a new, six-member National FFA Officer team to help lead the organization for the next year.



Brazil Soybean Planting Continues to Lag

Brazilian soybean planting continues to lag due to irregular rainfall across the top-producing Center-West, and the weather charts indicate little rain for the region over the next week, starting to raise concerns about the plants in the ground.

Soybean farmers had planted 16% of their forecast 67.4 million acres up to Oct. 19, progress compared with the 9% registered the Friday before but behind the 21% registered last year, according to Safras e Mercado, a local grains consultancy.

The lack of blanket showers has prompted farmers to put off October planting in Mato Grosso, Brazil's No. 1 soybean state, where 26% of the crop is planted compared with 40% at the same point last year.

The situation is even worse in Goias, the No. 4 soy state, where rains have been very scarce and only 3% of the crop has been planted, compared with 20% last year. In Rio Verde, the state's soy center, it has rained just one inch in October, compared with a monthly average of nearly 6 ½ inches.

Rain is forecast across the Center-West nearly every day this week, but the showers will continue to be sparse and intermittent, according to Somar Meteorologia, a local weather service.



2012 Edition of NMPF Dairy Data Highlights Now Available

Just as in baseball, the best teams in dairy production track and use statistics to ensure their success. The best compilation of dairy statistics is now available in the latest edition of the National Milk Producers Federation’s Dairy Data Highlights.

Dairy Data Highlights is a collection of 53 tables and 19 graphs that provides state-by-state and national metrics on all aspects of milk production from the recent past through 2011. This includes cow numbers, feed costs, relative prices, the sales of milk and dairy products, the difference between farm and retail prices, and trends in dairy products production. The booklet also tracks export and import information. Dairy Data Highlights has been published annually by NMPF for more than 60 years.

Dairy Data Highlights is available to NMPF member cooperatives and associate members for a per-copy price of $7.50 for orders up to 10 copies, and $5 per copy for orders larger than 10. For non-members, the per-copy price is $10.00 up to 10 copies, and $7.50 each for more than 10.

To order copies of the booklet, complete the information below and email to kgibsonwhite@nmpf.org.  



Dairy Situation and Outlook
By Bob Cropp, Professor Emeritus University of Wisconsin Cooperative Extension

The severe drought across much of the U.S. continues to impact milk production and as a result dairy product prices and milk prices continue to strengthen. USDA revised its August milk production from being 0.4% lower to no change from a year ago but September’s production was estimated to be 0.5% lower. Milk cow numbers which started to decline last May had fallen by 76,000 head by September and were 6,000 head below a year ago. Milk per cow which was 0.2% lower than a year ago in August was 0.4% lower in September. For the remainder of this year and going into next year not only high feed costs but the availability of quality forages in many cases will continue to reduce cow numbers and either decrease or slow any increase in milk per cow with the greatest impact in the West. Looking at some Western states declines in September milk production compared to a year ago were: Arizona 5.4%, California 3.9%, New Mexico 4.5%, Texas 4.7% and Washington 1.9%. Each of these states had decrease cow numbers from August and each had less milk per cow. Idaho was the exception with an increase of 2.3% in milk production all due to more milk per cow.

These milk production changes compare to increases in milk production for most Northeast and Upper Midwest states. In the Northeast September milk production compared to a year ago was up 2.3% in New York, 2.8% in Michigan and 2.2% in Ohio. However, Pennsylvania’s production was down 2.7% from 0.7% fewer cows and 1.9% less milk per cow. In the Upper Midwest milk production was down 0.3% in Iowa due to 2,000 more cows but 1.1% less milk per cow. Minnesota’s milk production was up 0.8%, the result of 0.2% fewer cows but 1.0% more milk per cow. Wisconsin had 0.6% more cows and 2.3% more milk per cow resulting in 2.9% more milk. In the Southeast milk production was up 3.2% in Florida the result of 2.5% more cows and 0.8% more milk per cow.

We can expect cow numbers to continue to decline well into next year as some dairy producers exit dairying completely and others reduce the size of their dairy herd in response to high feed prices and availability of quality forages. Dairy cow slaughter has thus far this year is about 7% higher than a year ago with slaughter in recent weeks being as much as 10% higher. High prices for corn and protein sources will dampen increases in milk per cow. USDA is projecting milk production for this year to be up 1.7% (up 1.4% adjusted for leap year). Milk production for the first quarter of this year was 4% higher than a year earlier (adjusted for leap year). So we can expect milk production for the first quarter of next year to run as much as 2% or more below these production levels. With a decline in cow numbers and a relatively small increase in milk per cow USDA is projecting almost no increase in 2013 milk production.

Domestic sales of both butter and cheese continue to show growth despite higher wholesale prices. But, fluid (beverage) milk continues to decline with August sales 0.5% lower than a year ago and year-to-date sales down 1.6%. Also despite rising prices dairy exports continue to increase over the record exports last year. With the help of CWT August exports of cheese were 30% higher with year-to-date exports 21% higher. August Exports of nonfat dry milk were 18% higher with year-to-date exports 9% higher. Whey protein concentrate exports were 28% higher for August and year-to-date exports 15% higher. But August dry whey exports were 27% lower and year-to-date exports 9% lower. And butter exports continue to decline with August exports down 45% and year-to-date exports down 22%.

Compared to a year earlier August production of butter was 3.5% lower and nonfat dry milk 7.8% lower. But, cheese production was higher with American cheese 4.5% higher and total cheese 2.6% higher. Despite higher cheese production favorable domestic sales and exports helped to lower stocks. As of August 31st, stocks of American cheese were 5.0% lower than a year ago and total cheese stocks 5.8% lower. With heavier butter production earlier in the year butter stocks were still 23.4% higher than a year ago, but not excessive considering the strong sales period during the upcoming holidays. Both nonfat dry milk stocks and dry whey stocks were lower, down 15.3% and 37.1% respectively.

Lower milk production, favorable domestic sales and exports, tighter stocks and an anticipated fairly tight supply-demand situation going into 2013 are all factors that have strengthen dairy product prices and milk prices. On the CME butter averaged $1.88 per pound in September and will average about $1.90 per pound for October. Butter prices will likely decline some once holiday orders are filled and could fall to around $1.80 by year’s end, but stay in the $1.75 to $1.80 range most of next year. West nonfat dry milk price averaged $1.5339 per pound in September and will average close to the same for October. Nonfat dry milk prices could stay above $1.50 through April of next year and then gradually soften to near $1.35 by year’s end. West dry whey averaged $0.5755 per pound in September and will average about $0.60 for October. Dry whey prices could stay in the high $0.50s for the first half of next year and soften to the low $0.50s by year’s end. On the CME cheddar barrel cheese averaged $1.878 in September and will average about $2 for October. And 40-pound cheddar blocks averaged $1.9245 per pound in September and will average about $2.05 for October. Cheese prices above $2.00 per pound could well experience some sales resistance. After the holidays cheese prices will likely soften but could stay in the $1.80 to $1.70 per pound range for the first half of next year.

The Class III price was $19 in September and will reach $21 for October and perhaps November before declining slightly in December. But, a Class III price at $19 or higher for the first quarter of next year and staying above $18 for the remainder of the year now appears quite possible. The Class IV price was $17.41 in September and will be near $18.75 for October and perhaps going above $19 by November. A Class IV price of near $18 for the first half of next year appears quite possible before declining towards year’s end. Some are forecasting even prices higher. Higher prices are possible but all of these price forecasts will no doubt be revised depending upon any changes in expected levels of milk production, domestic sales and exports for the months ahead. The level of exports will not only depend upon U.S. dairy product prices in comparison to world prices, but the also the extent to which U.S. dairy companies with tighter supplies will attempt to maintain international customer commitments. U.S. exports could also be impacted by how the run up in food prices, particularly in developing countries affects their purchasing of dairy products. There also exists the possibility of deeping of the European debt crisis which would have worldwide implications. And we know that milk prices could be impacted by weather conditions and how it affects crop production next year, not only in the U.S., but in other major exporting and importing countries. Thus, several factors could dramatically change final milk prices for next year.



September Egg Production Up 1 Percent

United States egg production totaled 7.55 billion during September 2012, up 1 percent from last year. Production included 6.57 billion table eggs, and 987 million hatching eggs, of which 919 million were broiler-type and 68 million were egg-type. The total number of layers during September 2012 averaged 337 million, up 1 percent from last year. September egg production per 100 layers was 2,241 eggs, up slightly from September 2011.
                                   
All layers in the United States on October 1, 2012 totaled 338 million, up 1 percent from last year. The 338 million layers consisted of 285 million layers producing table or market type eggs, 49.3 million layers producing broiler-type hatching eggs, and 2.96 million layers producing egg-type hatching eggs. Rate of lay per day on October 1, 2012, averaged 74.3 eggs per 100 layers, down 1 percent from October 1, 2011.

Egg-Type Chicks Hatched Down 6 Percent
Egg-type chicks hatched during September 2012 totaled 37.5 million, down 6 percent from September 2011. Eggs in incubators totaled 37.2 million on October 1, 2012, up 1 percent from a year ago.

Domestic placements of egg-type pullet chicks for future hatchery supply flocks by leading breeders totaled 206 thousand during September 2012, down 18 percent from September 2011.

Broiler-Type Chicks Hatched Down Slightly
Broiler-type chicks hatched during September 2012 totaled 718 million, down slightly from September 2011. Eggs in incubators totaled 581 million on October 1, 2012, up 2 percent from a year earlier.

Leading breeders placed 6.68 million broiler-type pullet chicks for future domestic hatchery supply flocks during September 2012, up slightly from September 2011.



CBOT May Reconsider 21-Hour Grain Trading Cycle

The Chicago Board of Trade has explored reducing the nearly non-stop grain trading hours it implemented this year, according to a participant in initial conversations with the grain industry. Reuters reports that the CBOT, which is owned by CME Group Inc., is in the listening mode and said it will likely survey market users more broadly about trading hours soon, according to the person, who characterized the discussion so far as "fairly informal."

The exchange expanded its electronic trading cycle to 21 hours a session from 17 in May in response to a threat from rival IntercontinentalExchange Inc., which launched look-alike corn, soy and wheat contracts. However, the threat has turned out to be minimal, as ICE's contracts have failed to attract significant volume.

CME on Wednesday agreed to buy the Kansas City Board of Trade, cementing CME's dominance in world grain futures markets and keeping ICE from gaining an important foothold.

The exchange sounds like they are amenable to changing the closing time for electronic and open-outcry trading to 1:15 p.m. Central time from the current closing time of 2 p.m., according to the person who participated in the talks.

CME does not plan to make any changes until after Jan. 1, the source said.