October 11 USDA Crop Prod. and WASDE Reports

USDA Crop Production Estimate 10-11-12

Corn Production Down Slightly from September Forecast
Soybean Production Up 9 Percent
Cotton Production Up 1 Percent

Corn production is forecast at 10.7 billion bushels, down slightly from the September forecast and down 13 percent from 2011. This represents the lowest production in the United States since 2006. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 122.0 bushels per acre, down 0.8 bushel from the September forecast and 25.2 bushels below the 2011 average. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 1995. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.7 million acres, up less than 1 percent from the September forecast and up 4 percent from 2011. Acreage updates were made in several States based on administrative data. 

Soybean production is forecast at 2.86 billion bushels, up 9 percent from September but down 8 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 37.8 bushels per acre, up 2.5 bushels from last month but down 4.1 bushels from last year. Compared with last month, yield forecasts are higher or unchanged across all States. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 75.7 million acres, up 1 percent from September and up 3 percent from last year. Acreage updates were made in several States based on administrative data.

All cotton production is forecast at 17.3 million 480-pound bales, up 1 percent from last month and up 11 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 795 pounds per acre, up 5 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 16.6 million 480-pound bales, up 13 percent from 2011. Pima cotton production, forecast at 657,000 bales, was carried forward from last month.



NEBRASKA’S OCTOBER 2012 CROP PRODUCTION

Based on October 1 conditions, Nebraska’s corn crop is forecast at 1.30 billion bushels, down 2 percent from last month and down 15 percent from last year, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, Nebraska Field Office.  Yield is forecast at 142 bushels per acre, down 3 bushels from last month and 18 bushels below last year.  Harvested acreage was increased by 50,000 acres to 9.15 million, but still 5 percent below a year ago.

Soybean production is forecast at 203 million bushels, up 1 percent from September but down 22 percent from last year.  Yield is forecast at 41 bushels per acre, up 1 bushel from last month and the lowest since 2003.  Area for harvest was decreased 50,000 acres to 4.95 million, up 2 percent from 2011.  

Sorghum production is forecast at 3.48 million bushels, down 22 percent from last month due to a decrease in harvested acres.  This production is 47 percent below a year ago and the smallest since 1953.  Yield, at 58 bushels per acre, is up 2 bushels from the previous month but 36 bushels below last year.  Harvested acreage was decreased 20,000 acres to 60,000, down 10,000 acres from last year and smallest since 1937.

Sunflower production is down 58 percent due to reduced acreage and yield from a year ago making this the lowest total since 2002.  Dry edible bean production is up 45 percent from last year due to an increase in acres and higher yield.  Sugarbeet production is up 18 percent from 2011, a result of a record high yield.  Alfalfa hay production is forecast to be 30 percent lower and all other hay production is expected to be down 29 percent from a year ago.  

Acreage updates to planted and harvested acres from levels published in the September Crop Production Report were made based on a review of administrative data.



Iowa October 2012 Crop Production

Corn: Iowa’s corn planted and harvested for grain acreage is  estimated  at  14.2  million  and  13.7  million  acres, respectively, according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production  report.   As of October 1,  Iowa’s  corn  crop  is  forecast  to  yield  140  bushels  per acre.      Production  is  forecast  at  1.92  billion  bushels, 19 percent below the 2011 production.

Soybeans:  Iowa  farmers  planted  9.35  million  acres  of soybeans  and  plan  to  harvest  9.29  million  acres.    The October  1  yield  forecast  of  43.0  bushels  per  acre  is  up 4.0 bushels  from  September  2012.    If  realized,  soybean production would be 399 million bushels, down  from  last year’s production of 475 million bushels.  
 
Hay:  The  hay  yield  for  alfalfa  and  alfalfa mixtures  is expected to be 2.9 tons per acre with a total production of 2.32  million  tons.  The  other  hay  yield  is  projected  at 1.6 tons per acre with a  total production of  496,000  tons, down 26 percent from 2011.  

Reminder: All  crop  forecasts  in  this  report  are  based  on conditions on October 1 and do not reflect weather effects since  that  time.    The  next  corn  and  soybean  production forecasts, based on  conditions  as of November 1, will be released on November 9.



USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates - World Agriculture Outlook Board
10-11-12

WHEAT:  Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 44 million bushels as higher feed and residual disappearance more than offsets a reduction in projected exports.  Production for 2012/13 is raised 1 million bushels based on the latest estimate from the September 30 Small Grains report.  Feed and residual use is projected 95 million bushels higher reflecting the September 1 stocks that indicated higher-than-expected June-August disappearance.  Exports are lowered 50 million bushels on the pace of shipments and sales to date and stronger expected competition.  Export projections are lowered for Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter wheat.  The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm price is narrowed 15 cents on both ends to $7.65 to $8.55 per bushel.  Small revisions to 2011/12 feed and residual disappearance and seed use reflect recent updates to stocks and acreage.

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 6.2 million tons lower mostly reflecting lower production for Australia, Russia, and EU-27.  Production for Australia is lowered 3.0 million tons as a continuation of dryness through September during critical flowering and grain fill stages has reduced yield potential for this year’s crop. Production for Russia is lowered 1.0 million tons reflecting the latest harvest reports that indicate lower yields and harvested area for spring wheat.  Production is lowered 0.8 million tons for EU-27 mostly reflecting a reduction for the United Kingdom where excessive harvest-time rainfall has reduced production.  Other EU-27 country changes were smaller and mostly offsetting.  Production is also reduced for Uruguay, Canada, Algeria, and Kyrgyzstan, each down 0.3 million tons based on the latest indications from government sources.  Also reducing 2012/13 supplies this month is a 0.5-million-ton reduction in global beginning stocks mostly on higher 2011/12 exports for Australia.  Upward revisions for 2010/11 and 2011/12 Argentina production partly offset the Australia reduction.

Global wheat consumption for 2012/13 is lowered 2.4 million tons as higher feed and residual use in the United States, Canada, and EU-27 is offset by lower wheat feeding for Russia, lower food use for India, and the reduction in Thailand and Vietnam consumption driven by reduced Australia production and exports.  Australia exports are lowered 3.0 million tons for the 2012/13 local October-September marketing year and raised 1.0 million tons for the 2011/12 local year.  Most of the reduction for 2012/13 is expected after June 2013 maintaining substantial competition for U.S. exports during the remainder of the 2012/13 June-May U.S. marketing year.  Argentina 2011/12 exports are also raised 0.6 million tons for the local December-November marketing year further adding to pressure on U.S. exports during 2012/13.

Global wheat exports for 2012/13 are lowered 4.0 million tons with the Australia and U.S. reductions, and reductions of 1.0 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively, for EU-27 and Canada.  Increases of 1.0 million tons each for India and Russia are partly offsetting.  Smaller export changes include a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Uruguay and a 0.2-million-ton increase for Mexico.  World ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 3.7 million tons lower mostly reflecting reductions for Australia, the United States, and Russia.

COARSE GRAINS:  U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected lower with reduced carryin and production this month.  Corn beginning stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 193 million bushels based on the September 1 stocks estimate.  Sorghum beginning stocks are lowered 4 million bushels also on the September 1 stocks.  Forecast corn production for 2012/13 is lowered 21 million bushels with higher area more than offset by lower yields.  The U.S. corn yield is forecast at 122.0 bushels per acre, down 0.8 bushels from the previous month.  Lower yields in Illinois are only partly offset by increases for Minnesota and North Dakota.  Forecast sorghum production is raised 6 million bushels with higher yields for Texas and Arkansas.  For 2012/13, corn supplies are projected 214 million bushels lower and sorghum supplies are projected 2 million bushels higher.  Barley supplies are down 6 million bushels with a small production decline from the Small Grains report and a 5-million-bushel reduction in projected imports with a smaller crop in Canada.  Oats supplies are down with a 3-million-bushel reduction in output, also from the Small Grains report.

U.S. corn use for 2012/13 is lowered with a 100-million-bushel reduction in projected exports.  Corn exports are lowered based on the slow pace of sales to date and strong competition from Brazil.  Corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 114 million bushels lower at 619 million.  Projected ending stocks are raised slightly for sorghum, but lowered for oats.  Barley ending stocks are projected 19 million bushels higher reflecting a 25-million-bushel reduction in expected feed and residual use based on indications from the September 1 stocks.  The season-average farm price for corn is lowered 10 cents on both ends of the range to $7.10 to $8.50 per bushel based on early season cash and futures prices and prices available for forward delivery through early 2013.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 11.0 million tons lower mostly reflecting reduced corn beginning stocks in the United States and Brazil.  Brazil beginning stocks are lowered with 2011/12 exports increased 4.5 million tons.  Global corn production for 2012/13 is lowered 2.0 million tons with reductions for EU-27, Serbia, and the United States.  Global sorghum production is raised 0.7 million tons with small increases for Australia, the United States, and several African countries.  Global rye production is raised 0.5 million tons with an increase for EU-27.  Offsetting these increases is a 1.8-million-ton reduction in world barley output mostly on smaller crops in Australia and Canada, and a 0.5-million-ton reduction for oats with a smaller crop in Australia. 

Global 2012/13 corn exports are lowered 1.1 million tons this month with the U.S. reduction partly offset by a 1.0-million-ton increase for Brazil and a 0.5-million-ton increase for India.  Imports for EU-27 are raised 2.0 million tons with the smaller crop.  Global corn feeding is down 1.4 million tons.  Corn and sorghum food use is raised this month for several African countries where these grains remain a staple food.  Global barley feeding is lowered with reductions for Australia, Canada, EU-27, and the United States.  Barley feeding is raised for Saudi Arabia.  Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2012/13 are lowered with projected corn ending stocks down 6.7 million tons on reductions for Brazil and the United States.

OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 88.2 million tons, up 6.2 million from last month.  Soybean production is forecast at 2.860 billion bushels, up 226 million based on higher harvested area and yield.  Harvested area is raised 1.1 million acres to 75.7 million.  The soybean yield is projected at 37.8 bushels per acre, up 2.5.  Soybean supplies for 2012/13 are projected 10 percent above last month on both increased production and beginning stocks.  Peanut and cottonseed production are also projected higher this month.

U.S. soybean exports for 2012/13 are raised 210 million bushels to 1.265 billion reflecting increased supplies, lower prices, and the record pace of export sales through early October.  Soybean crush is raised 40 million bushels to 1.540 billion mostly due to increased soybean meal exports and increased soybean supplies.  Soybean crush is also supported by an increase in domestic disappearance of soybean oil which reflects the impact of the increase of the biodiesel mandate for 2013 recently announced by the Environmental Protection Agency.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 130 million bushels, up 15 million from last month.

Prices for soybeans and products are all reduced this month.  The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2012/13 is projected at $14.25 to $16.25 per bushel, down $0.75 on both ends of the range.  The soybean meal price is projected at $470 to $500 per short ton, down $15 on both ends of the range.  The soybean oil price range is projected at 53 to 57 cents per pound, down 1 cent on both ends.

Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 457.7 million tons, up 4.6 million from last month as higher soybean and cottonseed production more than offset reduced rapeseed production.  Global soybean production is projected at 264.3 million tons, up 6.2 million mostly due to an increase for the United States.  A small increase for India soybean production is offset by a small reduction for Canada based on the latest survey information from Statistics Canada.  Rapeseed production is reduced for Canada based on lower yields reported in the most recent survey from Statistics Canada.  Early excess moisture resulted in delayed planting which was followed by dry conditions and heat during flowering, leading to the lowest yields since 2007.  Rapeseed production is also reduced for Australia.  Other changes include increased cottonseed production for China, India, and Pakistan.

Revisions to the world 2012/13 oilseeds estimates include reduced soybean exports for Brazil and Argentina, increased soybean imports for China and Mexico, and increased soybean crush for Argentina, China, and Mexico.  Lower rapeseed exports for Canada and Australia are partly offset by reduced imports for several countries including China, EU-27, Japan, and Mexico.  Global oilseed stocks for 2012/13 are increased 3.6 million tons to 64 million.  Soybeans account for most of the change, with higher stocks in Argentina, Brazil, China, and the United States.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The forecast for 2013 red meat and poultry production is raised slightly as higher pork and poultry production more than offsets lower beef production. Lower expected cattle placements in the third quarter will manifest itself as slightly lower supplies of fed cattle in early 2013.  The recent Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated a small decline in the June-August pig crop and indicated that producers intend to reduce farrowings through early 2013, but it is expected that continued growth in pigs per litter will mitigate much of the decline in farrowings.  The forecast for 2013 poultry production is raised slightly.  For 2012, the total meat production forecast is reduced on lower beef and broiler production forecasts, although pork and turkey are forecast higher.  Egg production is forecast higher for both 2012 and 2013 based on hatchery data.

Beef imports are reduced for 2012 based on a slower pace of imports from Canada, but are unchanged for 2013.  Beef exports are unchanged for 2012 and 2013.  Pork exports are unchanged for 2012, but are raised slightly on expected late 2013 improvements in sales.  Imports are reduced slightly for 2013.  Poultry export forecasts are unchanged for both 2012 and 2013.  

Only small changes are made to 2012 livestock and poultry prices, generally reflecting small adjustments to fourth-quarter prices.  Cattle and hog prices for 2013 are unchanged, but the broiler price is tightened at both ends of the range and the turkey price is lowered at the high end of the range.

The 2012 milk production forecast is reduced from last month, as slower growth in milk per cow more than offsets a slower expected decline in cow numbers.  Higher forecast milk prices in late 2012 and into 2013 are expected to slow the rate of decline in cow numbers and help support higher growth in milk per cow in 2013.  Thus, the production forecast for 2013 is raised. Imports are forecast higher for both 2012 and 2013.  Fat basis exports for 2012 are lowered but skim-solids exports are forecast higher.  Exports for 2013 are unchanged from last month.

Product prices are forecast higher for 2012 and 2013 as recent strength in dairy product demand is expected to carry into 2013.  Forecasts for butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk, and whey are raised from last month.  With higher product prices, both the Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised.  The all milk price is forecast at $18.50 to $18.60 per cwt for 2012 and $19.00 to $19.90 per cwt for 2013.

COTTON:  This month’s 2012/13 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates include slight revisions, resulting in an increase of 300,000 bales in forecast ending stocks.  Production is raised 178,000 bales from last month to 17.3 million, due mainly to increases in the Mississippi Delta states.  Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are reduced based on lower forecast imports by China. The forecast range for the 2012/13 marketing year average price received by producers of 62 to 74 cents per pound is lowered 4 cents on the upper end of the range, reflecting lower prices in recent months.  In addition, the final 2011/12 marketing year average price is pegged at 88.3 cents per pound.

A combination of sharply higher production and reduced consumption raises projected 2012/13 world ending stocks by 2.6 million bales this month.  Production is raised mainly in India, China, Brazil, Pakistan, and the United States.  Consumption is reduced 2.0 million bales for China as the high domestic support price continues to erode offtake.  However, about three-fourths of the China reduction is offset by increased spinning use in other countries with access to lower cost raw material, including India, Turkey, Pakistan, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Vietnam.  World trade is reduced marginally as a reduction of 1.0 million bales in China’s imports is mostly offset by increases for other countries.  World stocks are raised to 79.1 million bales, including 37 million bales projected for China.