Monday October 1 Ag News

October is Prime Time for Thistle Control
Bruce Anderson, UNL Extension Forage Specialist

Timing is everything, particularly with thistle control. Now through early November is one of the best times to apply herbicide for thistle control.

In the fall most thistle seedlings are in a small, flat, rosette growth form that is very sensitive to certain herbicides.

Among the most effective herbicide treatments for fall is a newer product called Milestone, or a combination of Milestone and 2,4-D called Forefront. Two other very effective herbicides are Tordon 22K and Grazon. (Tordon and Grazon also can kill woody plants, including trees you might want to keep.) 2,4-D also works well while it’s warm, but you will get better thistle control by using a little less 2,4-D and adding a small amount of Banvel or dicamba to the mix.

Other herbicides also can control thistles in pastures, including Redeem, Cimarron, and Curtail. No matter which weed killer you use, though, be sure to read and follow label instructions, and be sure to spray on time.

Next year, avoid overgrazing your pastures so stands get thicker and can compete better with any new thistle seedlings.



Preventing the Spread of Noxious and Invasive Weeds in Imported Hay
Steve Young, Extension Weed Ecologist, West Central REC, North Platte

The drought conditions gripping the state and region are not expected to let up for some time. For the past four months precipitation amounts have been below normal, while temperatures have regularly hit the 100° mark for most of the summer. Add to this the wild fire outbreaks that occurred during the same period and many regions are lacking vegetation of any kind or amount.

With these conditions, large scale operators and small herd owners are either reducing their livestock numbers or buying supplemental feed. The availability of hay in Nebraska and across the Midwest has been diminished substantially. In normal years, livestock are being rotated to later maturing pastures and feed is being stored for the winter. This year, livestock are being fed hay that is either lower in quality or normally reserved for winter.

The lack of hay is creating a dilemma for livestock owners who are trying to maintain their herds: spend more for the remaining good quality hay or spend a little bit less for something that is poorer in quality and may include noxious or invasive weeds. The short-term benefit of using low quality hay is not worth the long-term problems. Noxious and invasive weeds can become a problem that is equally as bad as the current drought situation. These plants can quickly overrun native or desirable plants and once established take years to remove completely. In fact, many noxious and invasive weeds are impossible to eradicate once they have become established in a field, pasture, or rangeland.

Consider this example from a grower I recently spoke to. He asked me about controlling leafy spurge in pasture being harvested for hay. I was surprised that it was being harvested, but referred him to a few UNL NebGuides for controlling leafy spurge. I then asked him how bad it was in his field. “Oh,” he said, “it is not my field. It is my neighbor's.” He told me he was watching them load the semi-tractor trailer bound for somewhere in Colorado. Shutter the thought.

The saying, “Desperate times lead to desperate measures,” should not be applied in the current hay situation in Nebraska or elsewhere. Always check your source for weed content — they are required by law to let you know. And, if you have noxious or invasive plants in your field(s), get rid of them before harvesting, removing, and storing or selling your hay.

Other Potential Intruders
Bruce Anderson, UNL Extension Forage Specialist

Hay bought locally is apt to have pests similar to your field, but when it comes from a long distance, new pests can be introduced that are harder to control.

In addition to noxious or invasive weeds or weed seeds, poor quality hay may contain alfalfa weevils or fire ants. Fire ants won’t survive a typical harsh Nebraska winter, but if it’s mild like last year and the hay is well-sheltered, they could be an unwelcome problem for a season or two.

How do you avoid the problem?
-    Do your research. Find out what pests are a problem in the area where the hay was harvested.
-    Check references.
-    Reserve the right to refuse the hay after it arrives and you’ve checked it thoroughly.
-    Feed this hay in a limited area. That way, if a problem does develop, you can keep it isolated and, hopefully, controlled.



West Nile Continues to Impact Iowa Horses

The Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship and Iowa Department of Public Health reminded Iowans that mosquitoes remain active until hard freeze occurs and can carry West Nile virus.

Surveillance has shown a larger number of horses have been infected with West Nile virus this year, with more than 20 confirmed cases. Last year Iowa only had one confirmed case in horses.

"Horse owners are encouraged to make sure the get their animals vaccinated and keep the vaccination up-to-date," said Bill Northey, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture. "The cases we are seeing are in horses that have not been vaccinated or are not current on their vaccinations, so we are encouraging owners to talk to their veterinarian and make sure their animals are protected."

Nineteen Iowans in sixteen counties have been diagnosed with West Nile virus in 2012. No West Nile virus-related deaths have been reported this year. Last year, there were nine human cases with two deaths.

Humans cannot 'catch' West Nile from an animal, but an increase in animal cases indicates higher activity among mosquitoes carrying the virus.



NDSU Schedules Tri-State Sheep Tour

A tour of research and private sheep operations in South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa on Nov. 1-2 will expose sheep producers and the Extension agents who assist them to the commercial sheep industry.

"The American sheep industry lacks commercialized products such as buildings, feeding systems, equipment and handling facilities that most other livestock industries have access to," says North Dakota State University Extension Service sheep specialist Reid Redden, who organized the tour. "This tour will provide insight into management practices such as development of novel facilities, feeding strategies and breeding systems that individuals and research centers have developed to improve the efficiency of lamb and wool production."

Tour participants will visit state-of-the-art sheep facilities and meet sheep industry leaders. The tour stops and topics are:
-- Buskohl Lamb Feedlot, Wyndmere - David Buskohl will provide a tour of his large commercial lamb-finishing system and discuss methods of optimizing lamb health and productivity.
-- South Dakota State University Sheep Unit, Brookings - Jeff Held will provide a tour of the sheep barn and discuss research topics at SDSU.
-- Dakota Lamb, Hurley, S.D. - Bill Aeschilmann will provide a tour of his custom lamb feed yard and discuss his lamb marketing business.
-- U.S. Meat Animal Research Center, Clay Center, Neb. - Kreg Leymaster will provide an educational seminar on commercial sheep breeding systems and lead a tour of the research center.
-- Iron Horse Farms, Harlan, Iowa - Tom Schechinger will provide a tour of his 100 percent confinement sheep operation.

The registration fee is $25 to cover the transportation costs. The registration deadline is Oct. 24.  For more information or to register, contact Redden at (701) 231-5597 or reid.redden@ndsu.edu.  The NDSU Extension Service, North Dakota Lamb and Wool Producers Association and Equity Livestock Cooperative Association are sponsoring the tour.



Joint Statement on the Expiration of the 2008 Farm Bill

The National Corn Growers Association has joined with other agricultural organizations on the following joint statement on the expiration yesterday of the 2008 farm bill:

The 2008 law governing many of our nation’s farm policies expired on Sunday, September 30th, and the 2012 Farm Bill needed to replace it is bottled up in Congress. While the Senate and the House Agriculture Committees were both able to pass their versions of the new farm bill, the full House was unable to do so.  While expiration of farm bill program authorities has little or no effect on some important programs, it has terminated a number of important programs and will very adversely affect many farmers and ranchers, as well as ongoing market development and conservation efforts.  Following is a summary of these impacts.

Programs Affected by Expiration of the 2008 Farm Bill
Dairy producers will face considerable challenges. The Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) program expired on Sunday. That program compensated dairy producers when domestic milk prices fall below a specified level. Without a new farm bill, dairy farmers are left with uncertainty and inadequate assistance. While milk prices are high enough that the price support program doesn’t kick in; unfortunately, there is no other safety net to help battle the highest feed costs on record.

Many farmers, ranchers and agribusiness or agricultural processors benefit from the Foreign Market Development Program (FMD). FMD is a cost-sharing trade promotion partnership between USDA and U.S. agricultural producers and processors. The program pools technical and financial resources to conduct overseas market development.  FMD helps maintain and increase market share by addressing long-term foreign market import constraints and by identifying new markets or new uses for the agricultural commodity or product in the foreign market. That funding, as well as specific funding for personnel to run the program at USDA, will run out at the end of October.  Since 31 percent of our gross farm income comes from exports which also make a positive contribution to our Nation’s trade balance, trade promotion is an important part of our safety net.  Other countries will most certainly take advantage of the fact that the program is rendered inoperable and will do what they can to steal our markets – and everyone knows, the hardest market to get is the one you lost.

About 6.5 million acres rotates out of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) this year.  While current contracts are protected, no new signup will be allowed for CRP or the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program (CREP).  Both of these programs are voluntary land retirement programs that helps agricultural producers protect environmentally sensitive land, decrease erosion, restore wildlife habitat, and safeguard ground and surface water.  In addition, there cannot be sign up for the Wetlands Reserve Program or the Grasslands Reserve Program.

Both versions of the new Farm Bill contain funding for the disasters facing the livestock industry due to the drought.  However, programs are currently only available for lack of forage, as well as death of animals.

Most producers of fruits and vegetables do not have a safety net, but instead receive funding to augment the competitiveness of specialty crops through programs that enhance trade, promote cutting-edge research, and implement on-the-ground projects to protect crops from disease and invasive species.  Funding for these programs ended when the Farm Bill expired.

Numerous other programs, including energy, agricultural research, rural development and funding for new and beginning farmers could be added to this list of affected programs. The bottom line is that while expiration of the Farm Bill causes little or no pain to some, others face significant challenges.

Programs Not Affected by Expiration of the 2008 Farm Bill
Almost 80 percent of the Farm Bill’s cost is for nutrition programs – primarily the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly commonly known as food stamps. Most recipients of nutrition program benefits will not be affected because the SNAP program did not need to be extended.  Funds for nutrition assistance programs will continue to be provided to those Americans without issue.

Farmers and ranchers who manage their risks using the farm bill’s crop insurance provisions will be unaffected because, like SNAP, those programs don’t expire. Nor do some of the conservation-related programs. In addition, most commodity-specific programs are largely covered by the 2008 Farm Bill since it applies to the 2012 crop year, rather than the 2012 fiscal year.  The main challenge, however, will be in planning for 2013. This includes lining up the critical financial assistance needed from lending institutions which prefer, if not demand, to see business plans presented in black and white. That will be difficult when producers don’t know when to expect a new Farm Bill – or what type of financial safety net is likely to be included in that bill.

Congress will return in mid-November for a lame-duck session prior to final adjournment in December.  We will work to have the first order of business for the House of Representatives be to consider a new Farm Bill.  We are urging our members to seek out their House members between now and the elections and remind them of the consequences of not having a new bill in place prior to adjournment at the end of the year.

American Farm Bureau Federation
American Pulse Association
American Soybean Association
National Association of Conservation Districts
National Association of Wheat Growers
National Barley Growers Association
National Corn Growers Association
National Council of Farmer Cooperatives
National Farmers Union
National Milk Producers Federation
National Sunflower Association
United Fresh Produce Association
USA Dry Pea & Lentil Council
U.S. Canola Association
Western Growers Association



Vilsack on Expiration of Authority for 2008 Farm Bill Programs

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack today made the following statement on the expiration of authority for 2008 Farm Bill Programs:

"Many programs and policies of the U.S. Department of Agriculture were authorized under the Food, Conservation and Energy Act of 2008 ("2008 Farm Bill") through September 30, 2012. These include a great number of critical programs impacting millions of Americans, including programs for farm commodity and price support, conservation, research, nutrition, food safety, and agricultural trade. As of today, USDA's authority or funding to deliver many of these programs has expired, leaving USDA with far fewer tools to help strengthen American agriculture and grow a rural economy that supports 1 in 12 American jobs. Authority and funding for additional programs is set to expire in the coming months. Without action by the House of Representatives on a multi-year Food, Farm and Jobs bill, rural communities are today being asked to shoulder additional burdens and additional uncertainty in a tough time. As we continue to urge Congress to give USDA more tools to grow the rural economy, USDA will work hard to keep producers and farm families informed regarding those programs which are no longer available to them."



NASS-Statistics Canada Discontinue October Hog Statistics Publication

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will not publish the United States and Canadian Hogs publication scheduled for October 29 at 1:00 PM. In the past, this publication has been released by NASS in cooperation with the Statistics Canada. In September, the Canadian agency discontinued its October Hog Statistics publication, resulting in discontinuation of the two nations’ joint hogs report as well. The next joint release of hog and pig estimates for the United States and Canada is scheduled for February 2013.



USDA Announces Commodity Credit Corporation Lending Rates for October 2012

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) today announced interest rates for October 2012. The CCC borrowing rate-based charge for October 2012 is 0.125 percent, unchanged from 0.125 in September 2012. For 1996 and subsequent crop year commodity and marketing assistance loans, the interest rate for loans disbursed during October 2012 is 1.125 percent, unchanged from 1.125 in September 2012.

Interest rates for Farm Storage Facility Loans approved for October 2012 are as follows, 1.125 percent with seven-year loan terms, unchanged from 1.125 in September 2012; 1.750 percent with 10-year loan terms, up from 1.625 in September 2012 and; 2.000 percent with 12-year loan terms, up from 1.875 percent in September 2012.



Beef and the School Lunch Program

There has been a lot of discussion in the beef community about the new school lunch program requirements. The checkoff wants to take a second to share what we know in hopes that it might answer any questions you have.

Recently, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated its meal patterns and nutrition standards for the National School Lunch and School Breakfast Programs to align them with the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, which is required by law. The new meal patterns are also based on recommendations issued by leading public health experts from the Food and Nutrition Board, part of the Institute of Medicine.

Prior to the 2012-2013 school year, schools were given the flexibility to follow two different meal planning options-either a "Traditional Food-Based Approach" or an "Enhanced Food-Based Approach". Under the new requirements, all schools will follow a single food-based menu planning approach, which uses narrower age/grade groups for menu planning and offers meals that meet specific calorie ranges for each grade/group. There will be a three-year administrative review to see how these new requirements are working.

These changes provide more choices and flexibility for schools, including the availability of more fruits and vegetables. These new meal patterns will be implemented starting with the 2012-2013 school year. The intent of these updated requirements is to provide nutrient-rich meals (high in nutrients, low in calories) that better meet the dietary needs of school children and protect their health. This is good news for nutrient-rich foods, like beef. In fact, in the final rule, USDA recognizes that "offering a meat/meat alternate as part of the school lunch supplies protein, B vitamins, vitamin E, iron, zinc and magnesium to the diet of children and also teaches them to recognize the components of a healthy plate."

Important to note: Beef continues to be an important part of a healthy diet for kids and essential component of healthy school meals.

The amount of meat/meat alternate required as part of the new school lunch plans are almost identical to previous requirements. You can read more here...  http://www.fns.usda.gov/cnd/Lunch/.  



CBB CEO Ruhland named 2013 Eisenhower USA Fellow

On Sept. 27, General Colin L. Powell, USA (Ret), Chairman of Eisenhower Fellowships, announced that the organization will send eight U.S. citizens abroad in 2013 as Eisenhower USA Fellows. Among the eight selected Fellows is Polly Ruhland, Chief Executive Officer of the Cattlemen's Beef Board (CBB), based in Centennial, Colo. CBB was established as part of the 1985 Farm Bill to oversee the national Beef Checkoff Program (www.MyBeefCheckoff.com).

The fellowship provides Ruhland with the resources and programmatic support to create and execute an intensive four- to five-week program studying differentiation of U. S. beef in Japan and Taiwan. Working closely with beef checkoff contractor U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), Ruhland will meet and work with key industry contacts to evaluate techniques and messages that would help U.S. producers better distinguish U.S. beef in both markets.

“This fellowship provides an opportunity to provide a different viewpoint into brand differentiation in two critical U.S. markets,” said CBB Chairman Wesley Grau, a cattleman from New Mexico. In addition, he notes, since Ruhland's work will be completely financed by Eisenhower Fellowships it also provides a chance to leverage further the expert work done by USMEF with beef checkoff dollars.

“This is a unique opportunity for a group of outstanding leaders to broaden themselves personally and professionally,” Powell noted.

Christine Todd Whitman, former Governor of New Jersey and Chairman of the Executive Committee of Eisenhower Fellowships, commended the Fellowship awardees, saying “We live in a globalized world. An Eisenhower Fellowship will allow these outstanding men and women to bring new insights from world experts back to their communities and to form a network of lasting relationships that will make them global leaders in their fields.” 

Eisenhower Fellowships is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization seeking to foster international understanding and leadership through the exchange of information, ideas, and perspectives among leaders throughout the world. Established in 1953 as a birthday tribute to President Dwight D. Eisenhower, the organization has sponsored more than 2,000 Fellows from 108 countries. For more information, please visit www.efworld.org.



NCGA's Johnson Enters 2013 Facing Challenges with Determination, Purpose

The National Corn Growers Association enters a new fiscal year today and seated the 2013 Corn Board with Pam Johnson of Floyd, Iowa, assuming the presidency.  Off the Cob spoke with the new president to explore her views on what lies ahead for corn farmers in 2013, the challenges she expects the board to face, and some of the programs she is excited to see coming to fruition.

Beginning by thanking the delegates of Corn Congress and the Corn Board for selecting her to lead the organization, Johnson noted that she is excited to serve her fellow corn growers and to advocate for them in 2013.

 "We certainly will have a lot on our plate in the coming year," she said. "We are coming through the worst drought in my lifetime, which in and of itself presents many challenges. I think that we need to remember that this drought is a near-term challenge, and we must keep our eye on the big picture and our long-term goals as we build for our future."

Looking at the assets that NCGA brings to the table to confront both long- and short-term challenges, she stresses her belief that the organization's greatest strength comes from the many people who come together to form the farmer-driven, grassroots group.

NCGA Action Teams, Committees Announced for New Fiscal Year
Along with welcoming a new Corn Board, NCGA also has updated its action team and committee roster for the 2013 Fiscal Year, which begins today. These new chairs and vice chairs will guide the members of their teams and committees as they actively shape the future of their industry by developing the policies and priorities which will guide NCGA.

"We've got a terrific group of grower volunteers that are so willing to dedicate a lot of time to help move our organization forward and serve our industry, our corn grower members and our checkoff contributors," said NCGA President Pam Johnson. "As usual, we had more volunteers than we did positions to fill, and I appreciate each grower who stepped up and offered to serve. This next year promises to be challenging and exciting, with so many important issues lying before our various teams and committees."

Leadership for NCGA's six major teams and committees are:
Production and Stewardship Action Team: Dean Taylor, chairman; Don Glenn, vice chairman; Keith Alverson, board liaison.
Public Policy Action Team: Jim Reed, chairman; Curt Friesen, vice chairman; Anthony Bush, board liaison.
Ethanol Committee: Chad Willis, chairman; Paul Taylor, vice chairman; Chip Bowling, board liaison.
Research and Business Development Action Team: DeVonna Zeug, chair; Gary Lamie, vice chairman; Bob Bowman, board liaison.
Grower Services Action Team: Brandon Hunnicutt, chairman; Tom Haag, vice chairman; Don Elsbernd, board liaison.
Trade Policy and Biotechnology Action Team: Jim Zimmerman, chairman; Roger Zylstra, vice chairman; Lynn Chrisp, board liaison.

The action teams and committees will have their first set of meetings in St. Louis in December.



NCBA Accepting Applications for Cattle Industry Convention Internships

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association’s (NCBA) government affairs office in Washington, D.C., is accepting applications for internships during the 2013 Cattle Industry Convention in Tampa, Fla., Feb. 6-9, 2013. The deadline to submit an application for this opportunity is Nov. 4, 2012.

The Cattle Industry Convention is the oldest and largest convention for the cattle business. The 2013 event will be the 115th annual convention. The convention and trade show create a unique, fun environment for cattle industry members to come together to network and create policy for the industry.

“Our internship positions provide a unique opportunity for students to gain first-hand experience and to interact with leaders from every segment of the cattle and beef industry,” said NCBA Public Policy Analyst Mallory Gaines. “The convention internship program provides an excellent opportunity to network with people throughout the beef industry. NCBA strives to provide time for students to maximize their opportunities to network and learn.”

The annual Cattle Industry Convention boasts over 5,500 attendees and a trade show with more than 250 booths. Interns are offered a unique, behind-the-scenes experience of setting up the trade show, manning the NCBA-Political Action Committee (PAC) booth, assisting with the NCBA-PAC auction, helping members vote on NCBA policy, working with the media and helping to guide cattlemen and cattlewomen to convention events.

The internship dates are Feb. 4-9, 2013. To apply, interested college juniors, seniors or graduate students should submit the convention internship application, a college transcript, two letters of recommendation and a resume to internship@beef.org. More information and the internship application are available on NCBA’s website... www.beefusa.org.  



Brazil's Soy Planting Under Way

After a dry start to September, showers returned to most Brazilian soybean-producing regions over the past 10 days, allowing farmers to kick off the 2012-13 season.  Across Brazil as a whole, 2012-13 crop planting remains in its infancy. Parana, the No. 2 soy state, has only 3% in the ground, according to the state agricultural secretariat, while Mato Grosso has sown 1.7%, according to the state's agricultural economy institute (IMEA).

Field work is expected accelerate over the next two weeks as farmers rush to plant early and therefore buy more time for second-crop corn in the winter. But, despite the recent rains, soil moisture remains a concern.  The winter dry spell was long and harsh over most of the farm belt and early planting areas still need more rain.



Russia Grain Exports Fall On Poorer Harvest

Russia's grain exports are smaller this year compared with a year ago due to a poor grain harvest resulting from drought.

According to figures released by the agriculture ministry on Monday, Russia exported 7.435 million metric tons of grain between the beginning of the current marketing year July 1 and Sept. 26, that is 19% less than in the same period in the previous marketing year.

The ministry said grain exports between Sept. 1 and Sept. 26 totaled 2.616 million tons, including two million tons of wheat, 446,000 tons of barley and 139,000 tons of corn.

The agriculture ministry said earlier that because of drought damage to crops, it expected this year's grain harvest to be 72-73 million tons and grain export in the 2012-2013 marketing year to be 10-14 million tons. In 2011, Russia harvested 94.2 million tons of grain and exported 27.2 million tons during the 2011-2012 marketing year.



Survey: Americans Refuse to Swap Quality for Low Prices

More Americans than ever are choosing natural and/or organic foods according to the fifth annual Whole Foods Market Food Shopping Trend Tracker Survey. The research revealed that nearly three out of four Americans (73 percent) don't want to compromise on the quality of the food they buy regardless of current food prices and nearly two-thirds (64 percent) describe themselves as "value seekers" when it comes to grocery shopping.

The survey, conducted online within the U.S. by Harris Interactive on behalf of Whole Foods Market from August 3-7, 2012 among 2,274 adults age 18 and older, found nearly three out of four Americans (71 percent) prefer to buy natural and/or organic foods over conventional foods if prices are comparable. One in four Americans (27 percent) are devoting more than a quarter of their grocery dollars to natural and/or organic products, up 35 percent from four years ago.

"We see that Americans from all demographics are seeking more natural and organic foods; especially if the price is right," said A.C. Gallo, president and COO of Whole Foods Market. "We don't believe shoppers should have to sacrifice quality for price, so we aim to offer high quality food that fits every budget through competitive pricing and expanding our 365 Everyday Value line."

Further, the research disclosed that many Americans are willing to pay more for foods that meet certain criteria:
-- Nearly half (47 percent) are willing to pay higher prices for locally produced foods Nearly a third (32 percent) are willing to pay more for foods with no artificial ingredients, preservatives or colorings
-- Nearly one out of three (30 percent) are willing to pay more for meats raised with no antibiotics or added growth hormones and one in four (24 percent) are willing to pay more for meats raised under humane animal husbandry standards
-- Aside from price, a majority of Americans say the overall quality (88 percent) and selection (85 percent) of products, regular sales and promotions (76 percent) and trust in the grocery retailers (76 percent) are very or fairly important when grocery shopping.

While the majority consider themselves "value seekers," here's a breakdown of how Americans describe their grocery shopping style, key findings show that*:
-- Value Seekers (64 percent) -- someone very aware of prices, bargains, coupons and specials
-- One-Stop (41 percent) -- shoppers who want all their needs met by one store, from staple pantry items and meats to family-friendly offerings and body care
-- Health-Minded (32 percent) -- someone who seeks out healthy foods and educational resources
-- Conscious Shoppers (17 percent) -- someone who seeks out organic, sustainable, Fair Trade, local foods and growers
-- On-the-Go (14 percent) -- someone who shops at the closest store and seeks out convenience and prepared foods
-- Adventurous Eater (13 percent) -- the foodie looking for specialty products



Bacon Shortage 'Baloney'; Prices Rise

(AP) -- Bacon lovers can relax. They'll find all they want on supermarket shelves in the coming months, though their pocketbooks may take a hit.

The economics of the current drought are likely to nose up prices for bacon and other pork products next year, by as much as 10 percent. But U.S. agricultural economists are dismissing reports of a global bacon shortage that lent sizzle to headlines and Twitter feeds last week. Simply put, the talk of scarcity is hogwash.

"Use of the word 'shortage' caused visions of (1970s-style) gasoline lines in a lot of people's heads, and that's not the case," said Steve Meyer, president of Iowa-based Paragon Economics and a consultant to the National Pork Producers Council and National Pork Board.

"If the definition of shortage is that you can't find it on the shelves, then no, the concern is not valid. If the concern is higher cost for it, then yes."

Fears about a scarcity of bacon swept across social and mainstream media last week after a trade group in Europe said a bacon shortage was "unavoidable," citing a sharp decline in the continent's pig herd and drought-inflated feed costs. The report caused much consternation over a product that used to be merely a breakfast staple, but nowadays flavors everything from brownies to vodka.

The alarm was quickly dismissed by the American Farm Bureau Federation as "baloney."

"Pork supplies will decrease slightly as we go into 2013," Farm Bureau economist John Anderson said. "But the idea that there'll be widespread shortages, that we'll run out of pork, that's really overblown."

The stubborn drought in the U.S., the world's biggest supplier of feed grains, undeniably will affect pig production. The Corn Belt's lack of moisture twice has prompted the U.S. Agriculture Department to slash its forecast for this year's corn output. The government now expects U.S. production of the grain to amount to 10.8 billion bushels, the least since 2006.

Those lowered expectations sent prices of corn — also used in ethanol, further squeezing supply — to record highs through much of the summer. Feed generally makes up about 60 percent of the expense of raising a pig. Rather than absorb the higher costs, swine and beef producers often have culled their animals by sending them to slaughter.

As of Sept. 1, the nation's inventory of hogs numbered 67.5 million head, up slightly from a year earlier, the USDA reported Friday. But the USDA suggested that pork supplies will tighten next year as the nation's breeding stock and intended farrowings — birthings of litters of pigs — likely will drop due to high feed costs.

"I think we're going to (still) see pretty substantial liquidations" of livestock, Meyer said, guessing that 3 percent of the nation's breeding pigs could be sent to slaughter by next March. "And by my estimation, that's a big move."

The USDA said the breeding inventory of sows and boars stands at 5.79 million head, down slightly from last year and off 1 percent from the previous quarter.

Such liquidations could mean a temporary glut of pork on the U.S. market, depressing pork prices before the oversupply eases and the volume of pork drops again next year, causing hog prices to rebound, said Ron Plain, an agricultural economics professor at the University of Missouri in Columbia. Consequently, he estimates, the higher costs will be passed along to consumers, who could end up paying 10 percent more for their bacon.

As of Friday, the USDA said, a pound of sliced bacon cost an average of $4.05 at the nation's supermarkets, down 22 cents from a week earlier.

Pig producer Phil Borgic is banking on high prices. With 3,400 sows near Nokomis in central Illinois, Borgic figures he's had to spend $2 million more this year for the 600,000 bushels of corn he feeds his pigs. Rather than sell off animals on the spot market, the 56-year-old farmer is hedging his bets by contracting them out for slaughter over a staggered period in coming months — what he sees only as a break-even proposition.

"The previous couple of years have been good to us," he said. "Then the drought changed the ballgame on a worldwide level."

He waves off the concerns about consumers facing shortages.

"The U.S. has plenty of pork, and we won't run out here," he said. "We'll have some price inflation, but we have plenty of supply."